Best Of Bets

Tag: Doncaster

  • Four To Follow Cheltenham Trials Week One

    Four To Follow Cheltenham Trials Week One

    The road to the Festival starts now. We begin at the home of jumps racing for the prestigious Trials Day, where plenty of clues will be laid out for many of the graded contests. Plus there’s some Northern Trails up at Doncaster where the feature handicap of the day is the Great Yorkshire Chase. Let’s dive into it.

    Cheltenham

    Roko Redemption

    1:50 – Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Iroko @ 9/2 (General)

    There’s plenty to like about Iroko’s chances and he should suit this trip over the fences. He was a former winner over the Martin Pipe and has been seen staying further. But this looks ideal. He can recover after being very unlucky falling at Ascot just before Christmas. This rates an exciting opportunity to possibly to put him in the Ryanair, or the Plate if he’s not successful.

    Imperial Saint is possibly the most likeable horse going this season. Three wins from four starts has seen him skyrocket up the rankings and he’s won in imperious style too. On Boxing Day, he recorded that third victory at Aintree for the third time. There may be an argument that he prefers flat tracks to more undulating ones like Cheltenham, but he’s a relentless galloper which will suit him on the New Course. 5/1 (Unibet).

    Lay Down The Law

    3:35 – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade Two) – Ga Law @ 9/1 (BetVictor)

    This looks to be the most competitive Cleeve Hurdle in recent years. Both Crambo and Strong Leader, Grade One winners in their own right, have a poor record at Cheltenham. Ga Law is more likely to be seen over fences and ran a great race in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. This run will protect his handicap mark and will be feared now tackling hurdles.

    Potter Trials

    4:10 – AIS Novice’s Hurdle (Grade Two) – Potters Charm @ 5/6 (Unibet)

    Potters Charm is possibly the most exciting novice hurdler in Britain at the moment and will rival any Irish raider at the Festival. For now, he returns to a track where he’s won at twice this season over both two and two-and-a-half miles. Now a Grade One winner over two miles, he steps back up in trip in what should be a successful trial.

    Wade Out is quite exciting as a novice hurdler. He should be respected from the Olly Murphy stable and has won twice this season, placing second at Ascot. This is a big step up in trip and grade but will give it a good crack. Possible pace angle as well, given the fact he set a slow pace at Lingfield previously and may make it difficult for the rest. 14/1 (General).

    Doncaster

    Forward Showing

    3:15 – Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Forward Plan @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Forward Plan has a great record at this track with one win and two placings at Doncaster in three outings here. He just lost by a nose in last year’s contest and is back to a similar mark with a claiming jockey taking 10 pounds off. He races consistently in these sorts of handicaps and will not be far away once more.

    Each-way value falls the way of Idalko Bihoue. He’s lightly raced and hasn’t found a win since Cheltenham in November 2023. He has fallen sharply in the handicap and races off an attractive mark. The ground a Doncaster very rarely turns soft and if he’s got plenty of gallop in him he may need it, as the final fences up the homestraight may be missed out due to low sun. 12/1 (BetVictor).

    Tightenourbelts seeks a hat-trick and is up in grade today. Last time he was very impressive at Ludlow beating Neon Moon by 13L. Looks to be in the form of his life and looks to relish this trip, plus is relatively unexposed too with only three starts over three miles and two wins. More than an each-way shot. 14/1 (General).

    The Very Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow – Badgers Hunting

    Four To Follow – Badgers Hunting

    Don’t be misled by the title! We are hunting for value in the Badger Beers Handicap Chase at Wincanton. Plus, there’s the Grand Sefton over the National fences at Aintree and the dying lights of the flat turf at Doncaster with the November handicap.

     

    Wincanton

    Boom Bet

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    2:23 – Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – Boombawn @ 6/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Despite being run at Paul Nicholl’s local track, Boombawn offered much more last time out at Chepstow, Running against the Nicholls’ trained Insurrection, Boombawn looked to travel on strongly after the last. Insurrection looked to offer little, but Boombawn hunted down his rival but denied by a neck in the closing stages. Dan Skelton is in electric form and can’t see any negatives, for this horse.

     

    The Nicholls’ King

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    3:30 – 63rd Badger Beers Handicap (Premier H’cap) – Mofasa @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    It may look a depleted field for Wincanton’s biggest race, but I’ve been hunting some potential value in the race. And Mofasa looks a great bet. For Nicholls, who has won this race four times in the past ten, he’s back on a winning mark. He won a novice handicap chase off 130, and a three-pound drop sems more than enough for a horse who never shows his true potential until early on in a season.

    There’s also worth a watch on Remastered, the former Coral Gold Cup runner-up. Now 11, he won over three and a quarter miles last time out on this track, on good ground, which proves he has a winning desire. He’s only a pound lower than a previous winning mark but expect him to go hunting the field. A definite chance, in a low-class field, 10/1 (William Hill).

     

    Aintree

    Frero Rocher!

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    2:40 – Boylesports Grand Sefton H’cap Chase – Frero Banbou @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    Despite Venetia Williams’ horses preferring soft ground, Frero Banbou has proven a liking for better ground. But crucially, he is three pounds lower than when placing third in last year’s contest. With experience of the ferocious National fences, and good early season record, Frero Banbou will make a good account of himself.

    Surprisingly, Vintage Fizz makes appeal in this contest. He’s a two-and-a-half-mile specialist, albeit at low level. He came close in the Summer, plus last time out when less than four lengths behind the winner, finishing fourth, at Wetherby. He’s down to a competitive mark and will easily deal with the ground. It will be interesting to see how he copes now in a higher grade. 33/1 (General).

     

    Doncaster

    November Hunting

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    3:45 – November Handicap – Valvano @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    The final big flat handicap of the season sees the end of the turf season around the country. And Valvano can finish it off with a bang. He remains relatively unexposed and steps up in trip to a mile-and-a-half. The other positive is the winner of his handicap at York, Bolster, went and won a Listed race at Newmarket which boosts his form. Plus, his trainer is operating at 34%, a terrific strike rate at the close of season.

    An amazing fact, Stressfree hasn’t finished outside of the top three in his past seven runs. An incredible record and has shown a liking for soft ground on the way too. He’s been raised a total of 10 pounds in his past six runs, which means he has progressed at a steady rate for David O’Meara. He finished ahead of Valvano then third over at this course two weeks ago. Definite claims at 9/1 (William Hill).

    Lord Melbourne may be a bit of an outside chance in this race, but with the in form conditional Jack Doughty, he’s now two pounds lower than his previous wining mark. He, too, finished behind Bolster at Epsom at the end of May. He then progressed from there on in and can offer almost a second choice for Ralph Beckett in the November handicap. 16/1 (General).

  • Four To Follow – All Over The Place

    Four To Follow – All Over The Place

    Welcome back to the jumps, people! The most chaotic and most enjoyable time of the year. With Cheltenham already underway, it makes sense to focus in on some top class action there. But we don’t forget the last of the flat, with a Group One at Doncaster and two Group Three’s at Newbury. We’re up, down and all about on this Saturday.

     

    Cheltenham

    Headline Act

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    2:20 – William Hill Handicap Chase – Broadway Boy @ 3/1 (General)

    If there’s one thing I noticed on the Friday of the Showcase meeting at Cheltenham, it’s that front runners had a big advantage. Those who raced prominently were always in the finish. Combine those with a good record on good ground and first time out, and you’ll have your winner.

    Broadway Boy has more than those three factors in his favour. Add in three course wins (two over three miles) and a trainer who found two winners on Friday at Cheltenham, and you have your winner. Broadway Boy acts well on the ground and has a decent enough first-time out record, to make him the one to beat.

    Olly Murphy’s Chasing Fire will add stiff opposition. He goes second-season chasing this term and finished last year on a high with a win over three miles at Perth. That day was on soft, but he appears to be versatile on all ground, so good won’t be a worry. He’s only off six pounds higher than last time and ends up mid-division on the handicaps. Worth a chance, 9/1 (William Hill).

    Unanswered Prayers has been his namesake for almost two years, with no win in handicap company. But his last win came at Cheltenham in a novice chase on good ground. It seems a little harsh that the handicapper has risen him two pounds for finishing a one-and-a-half length second last time out, but he has an ok first-time out record. Plus, course experience, he has claims at 16/1 (General).

     

    The Moral HY Ground

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    4:05 – William Hill Novices’ Chase – Hyland @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Despite Nicky Henderson’s early season record this, and for previous seasons, Hyland looks laid out for this race. He runs well on good ground and is fresh from a 118-day break. His record fresh is a little inconsistent, but given the right ground he should act on it. He also has a bit of course and distance form after winning at Cheltenham over hurdles in a three-mile contest.

     

    Doncaster

    No More Line Judges

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    2:40 – William Hill Futurity Trophy (GROUP ONE) – Wimbledon Hawkeye @ 5/2 (General)

    With the news that there will be no line judges at the All-England Club in 147 years, and former champion Rafael Nadal retiring, you’d think that Wimbledon Hawkeye had destiny on his side.

    But his last win in a Group Two came at Newmarket came on soft ground when he wound up the Rowley hill in very good fashion. Albeit the form hasn’t been tested, he has won on soft ground which puts him at a major advantage to the others. He’s been a horse to watch this season, and could be well deserved of a Group One.

    Watch out for John & Thady Gosden trained Detain. Despite the pair’s comments that he may avoid this race, owners Juddmonte are confident enough to let him run for the first time on turf in this race. With the ground he’s run on so far, standard-to-slow, and he’s last seven length win, he’s caught eyes and ears, and may well be worth the 11/2 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Warning For All

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    3:10 – BetVictor Horris Hill Stakes (Group Three) – Yaroogh @ 11/4 (General)

    Despite Benevento having better form, he’s still two pounds lower in ratings than Yaroogh, who’s had a busy campaign. He clearly loves soft ground, after a May win at Haydock on soft (which has since been backed up), and last time out on heavy at Deauville in a Listed contest. He finally found true form winning by three-and-a-half lengths and can carry on, on heavy ground, today.

    His main danger will be Bob Mali. Bred from Sands Of Mali, he’s currently unbeaten from three runs, including two wins on heavy ground. The form from a conditions race at Salisbury last time out has seen the second place once more, which should be where this son of Passadouro end up. Definite potential at 6/1 (William Hill).

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day Three

    St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day Three

    It’s the final classic of the year, the St Leger Festival at Doncaster. This Festival allows us to not only crown the winner of the oldest classic, but also to watch out for the future with plenty two-year-old action too. Today on day three, it’s the big one. The St Leger might look a little subdued on paper with the lack of runners, but it’s still tricky to call.

     

    Beware The Wolf

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    1:50 – Betfred Champagne Stakes (Group Two) – Wolf Of Badenoch @ 7/2 (General)

    I’m trying to work out why Chancellor is favourite, and not Wolf Of Badenoch. He finished second in a Group Two at Goodwood, which is usually the form race, and has the form backed up by Cool Hoof Luke who he beat into fourth. Out of the two horses rated in the race, he’s miles clear at 106 and stands for a lot more. He’s also a C&D winner on similar ground too when he won on debut. Hard not to oppose.

     

    Love Story

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    2:25 – Betfred Portland (Heritage Handicap) – American Affair @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    Last week he was desperately close to winning in the Be Friendly Handicap, but American Affair could well go close again. Paul Mulrennan is back on top, who has won on him before. He keeps her mark of 92 as Shagraan now goes above 100, which gives American Affair a chance to overturn the result. He won’t mind the ground, having won at Musselburgh on a similar surface early on in the year. He’s also drawn on the rail on the far side, which can be an advantage.

    Vintage Clarets was eighth in a bunch finish at York last time out in the Symphony Group handicap, and has been lowered two pounds for the run. That puts him on a mark in between two winning marks. That should mean if conditions are to suit, he won’t be far away. He’s also drawn over on the far side, so a slight track advantage as well. 12/1 (General).

     

    Poetry In Motion

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    3:00 – Betfred Park Stakes (Group Two) – Poet Master @ 5/1 (Betfred, Boylesports)

    Poet Master might not be a name that has hit the heights this season, but he has been impressive. Especially in his last race at The Curragh when winning by almost four lengths. Mutasarref, third, went and won the Group Three Desmond Stakes and has a good chance in the Solonaway Stakes over at The Curragh today. With the form backed up, and a winner on this card last year, Poet Master is the one to stick with. Particularly with the price.

     

    Three Of A Kind

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    3:40 – Betfred St Leger (GROUP ONE) – Illinois @ 2/1 (General)

    Aidan O’Brien holds the all the cards in this race, once again. With three extremely talented colts, you could make a case for all of them. But Illinois has been bred for the race. A half-brother to Danedream and black type throughout his pedigree made him look like a Classic winner on paper. He won the big trial for this race, the Queen’s Vase, and was second in two other pointer races in the Grand Prix de Paris and the Great Voltiguer. Only beaten by a neck last time out shows that he will suit a mile and six furlongs down to the ground.

    A little forgotten about is Grosvenor Square. Many people will look at him as a pace angle, but don’t forget what he achieved this season. A 20 length win in the Irish St Leger Trial and second to Tower Of London, against older horses too, in the Curragh Cup. Whilst Jan Breughel has impressed the pundits, Grosvenor Square should not go unheard of. Worth a go at 11/2 (BetVictor).

    Click here for Irish Champions Weekend Tips.

    The very best of luck!

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | Kinross Set For Frolic in Park

    St Leger Festival 2024 | Kinross Set For Frolic in Park

    Saturday edition of this year’s St Leger Festival comes with a loaded card, but before the main event, a wide-open Betfred Park Stakes sees Kinross looking to regain what was his.

    As 10 runners line up over 7f once more, defending champion, Sandrine, remains absent with the prize of 80k up for grabs.

    Indeed, in the mare’s stead, Kinross looks ready to stake a claim at the top once more.

     

    Past glories

    For a horse of such breeding and off the hooves of such stellar fledgling years, it is hard to pinpoint just where the wheels came off for Kinross.

    As a 6yo, the son of Kingman was leaving all in his trail.

    Building on from victories in the 2021 John of Gaunt and Lennox Stakes, the gelding was the apple of Ralph Beckett’s eye.

    Going on a victorious four-race winning streak with Frankie Dettori at the back end of 2022, the City of York and Park Stakes were capped by another win on Qipco Champions Day.

    However, since then, though a second win was had in the Lennox last year – also defending the City of York – it is five trips, no wins.

    Indeed, the last time Kinross took the winning post it was against Audience on the Knavesmire in August of 2023.

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    Nevertheless, there look to be two factors in his favour this weekend.

    Firstly, the last runner Kinross beat, the aforementioned Audience, was a withdrawal earlier this week – he himself looking for a second crack after being beaten 12 months ago.

    Without the favourite, Kinross’ chances are significantly boosted, as they are by the rain that has arrived this week.

    The gelding can go in all conditions, but if pushed, Beckett would agree good to soft decks suit his charge.

    So, two years on from one of this big career wins, is the 2024 Park dropping into Kinross’ saddle?

     

    Leader of the pack?

    Standing in the way of Kinross and a second Park Stakes, the Gosdens’ sole remaining entry, Lead Artist will look to live up to his moniker.

    Coming here off a win in the Bonhams Thoroughbred, the colt last made the trip to Yorkshire in May, winning the Darley EBF Maiden at York, a month after impressing in the Wood Ditton.

    The field here will be of greater pedigree, but Kieran Shoemark will fancy his chances.

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    Meanwhile, the price angle could come in the shape of the in-form Al Shabab Storm.

    A four-time career winner, trainer Andrew Balding will look to hold onto the crown with his burgeoning 3yo Chester starlet.

    Having won three times this term, his last four outings have been blotted only by his most recent visit to Cheshire last month, but comes here with Group 3 success in Germany.

    Al Shabab was fourth on Doncaster debut at the end of last season, and will want to improve here and can at 15/2 with BetVictor.

     

    The Betfred Park Stakes takes place on Saturday at 3pm UK time.

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day Two

    St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day Two

    It’s the final classic of the year, the St Leger Festival at Doncaster. This Festival allows us to not only crown the winner of the oldest classic, but also to watch out for the future with plenty two-year-old action too. Today on day two, more two-year-old in Flying Scotsman and Flying Childers Stakes. And the stayers are out in force for the Group Two Doncaster Cup.

     

    Successive Winner

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    1:50 – Betfred Mallard Handicap – Subsequent @ 9/4 (Betfred)

    When you’ve had three wins in your debut season, people will notice. Subsequent is looking for win number four and is impressing with every run. His latest victory at Newmarket showed he’s progressing incredibly well, and handling the steps up in trip equally well. It’s only a four pound rise, which looks fair and gives him a fighting chance.

    However, only two three-year-olds have won this race in the previous 10 runnings which means that older horses do have a slight advantage. Shadow Dance looks a particular threat after his impressive victory at York, when he switched inside and outside before turning on the burners to just overpower Lieber Power by a neck. With that much switching, and the power inside the half furlong to win, the step up in trip should be interesting. 7/2 (William Hill).

     

    Two Good To Be True?

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    2:25 – Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed) – Jonquil @ 11/10 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Jonquil was incredibly impressive on debut, and showed more maturity than you would see in most two-year-old debutants. His ability to keep the power going when switched to the outside really caught the eye. However, more experienced horses do win this race more often than not.

    However the last time a one raced horse won the Flying Scotsman was Sangarius. Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, ridden by Ryan Moore and owned and bred by Juddmonte. Lightning can strike twice.

    Mr Chaplin is a likeable horse and certainly has the credentials to win this race. He looks to have more of a preference to good ground, rather than good-to-firm ground after being well found out in the Acomb last time out. But with preferred ground and a win over the distance, he can certainly hit the frame. 12/1 (General).

     

    If Carlsberg did Two-Year-Old races…

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    3:00 – Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) – Big Mojo @ 3/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    An extremely electric race, with pace galore, it’s all about going on form. Big Mojo was disappointing at York last time out. However, with both Symbol of Strength and Camille Pissaro franking the form, Big Mojo should go a bit better. Trainer Michael Appleby says the ground is fine for him, and he’s top rated out of the field. There’s a lot of reasons to side with him in this fierce competition.

    Tropical Storm has good each-way claims. He beat current favourite, Magnum Force, by a neck last time out at York (even if Magnum Force was denied a clear run). The form from the Roses Stakes hasn’t been tested a lot, but he came from the best two-year-old of Royal Ascot which has paid dividends since. Forget his Goodwood run and he should be up there again. 9/1 (BetVictor).

    Another Michael Appleby horse that is forgotten about is Mr Lightside. Since winning impressively at Nottingham, he’s finished within a length and half of the winner in his two subsequent runs. His impressive third at Goodwood is the form to latch onto and if he can match his Nottingham win, plus the impressive run at Goodwood, he should outrun odds of 20/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Pair Of Kings

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    3:35 – Betfred Howard Wright Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2) – Sweet William @ 15/8 (General)

    The Gosden pair of Sweet William and Gregory look to be the one-two here, but is it that simple. I have major doubts about Gregory’s ability, with the best result this season third, three lengths behind Vauban last time out. Plus with the Doncaster Cup two miles and two furlongs, he may struggle as he did last year.

    Therefore, Sweet William has to be the pick. He was the nearest challenger to Kyprios at Goodwood last time out and did finish second in this race last year. Without the might of Kyprios and Vauban in this race, Sweet William has the potential to properly join the conversation in the stayers’ league.

    The very best of luck!

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | January is coming

    St Leger Festival 2024 | January is coming

    After a small hiatus, the regular betting columns for Best Of Bets are back just in time for the start of the Doncaster St Leger meeting.

    When we left this column in July, the P/L stood at +15.7 points after a disappointing final few weeks.

    So, let’s dive into Day 1 of the Doncaster St Leger meeting.

     

    3:00 Doncaster – January @ 6/1 with SkyBet – 1pt EW

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    Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Ecstatic in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes, but Aidan O’Brien’s other runner January makes the most appeal to me.

    The two-year-old by Kingman has a smart pedigree as she is out of I Can Fly who finished a close second to Roaring Lion in the 2018 Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

    On debut, she ran a solid race behind stablemate Heavens Gate – who already had a race under her belt – which looks like good form as she has subsequently placed in two Group races and won the Ballyhane Stakes.

    Two starts later, she put in another solid performance in the Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes, a race that has seen California Dreamer come out and finish behind the subsequent Group 1 winner Babouche in the Anglesey Stakes.

    Having won by a comfortable four lengths over seven and a half furlongs at Tipperary last time out, trying a mile for the first time looks like a natural step.

    Although this is her fifth race as a juvenile, I Can Fly was a highly-tried mare who continued to get better with age, so we probably won’t see the best of her until at least next season.

    Despite that, her form looks good enough to take a chance on her here.

     

    3:35 Doncaster – Night Sparkle @ 4/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    In what looks like a winnable Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes, Night Sparkle has a great chance to break her run of near misses.

    Since moving to Andrew Baling from Michael O’Callaghan, she has run two solid races behind Term Of Endearment – the latest of which when finishing ahead of Ciaus Chorister who was second to Absurde at Chester recently – as well as two good runs against the boys over two miles.

    The first of which occurred in the Listed Marathon Stakes at Sandown when second to Trueshan and the second was in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup behind Vauban, Al Nayyir, and Gregory.

    Both of those races look like good form and it looks as if 1m6f is the perfect distance for her.

    As much as Sumo Sam, on her second start after a wind-op, is a danger at 12/1, I think Night Sparkle has the ability to show her class in this company.

     

    4:40 Doncaster – Jorge Alvares @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Jorge Alvares was a horse that caught my eye after his run in the Harry’s Half Million By Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes at York, so I want to keep him onside on his handicap debut.

    With a rating of 82 after a two-pound rise from his last run, the gelding by Cotai Glory came from the rear of the field on the wrong side of the pack to finish a good fourth.

    Arizona Blaze, who finished second, brought Group form into the race, so the form looks better than average.

    Furthermore, from his debut run at York, Yah Mo Be There (second) has won a Listed race since and Andesite (first) was chucked straight into Group 2 company on his next run.

    Having run well on good to soft and good to firm before, any ground is fine for him.

     

    5:10 Doncaster – Defence Missile @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    From one nursery handicap to another, Defence Missile looks like a worthy bet off a mark of 79 with the first-time cheekpieces applied.

    On debut, he finished second to Mr Chaplin who has a rating of 96 having won a Class 2 handicap at Goodwood subsequently.

    Two starts later, he was a good third in a Salisbury novice stakes when trying to make all, form that looks good as Royal Playwright ran well behind Field Of Gold in the Solario Stakes and Original Outlaw chased home Mr Chaplin in that handicap at Goodwood.

    The son of Sottsass is a well-bred horse running in a 0-80, and with a run on the all-weather 22 days ago under his belt, he should be primed to go well here.

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day One

    St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day One

    It’s the final classic of the year, the St Leger Festival at Doncaster. This Festival allows us to not only crown the winner of the oldest classic, but also to watch out for the future with plenty two-year-old action too. Today on day one, two-year-olds in the form of a £300,000 sales race and a Group Two. Plus the fillies’ St Leger, the Park Hill Stakes.

     

    Looking Out Below

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    2:25 – Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes – Caburn @ 4/1 (General)

    The form from this race always seems to come from York, whether it be a nursery, the sales race or any group race from the Ebor Festival. Caburn possesses, possibly, the best form in the race after racing in the Gimcrack. The third, Symbol Of Strength won on Saturday at Kempton when Caburn finished fifth. Caburn also won the Newbury Super Sprint, which is another tick in the formbook. He’s won two races on firm ground and won’t mind the good ground so long as there’s pace.

    Another horse coming down from group company is Victory Sound. He was in the same race as Field Of Gold, who won in impressive style. Whilst the form is untested, Victory Sound should be suited by both ground and trip and level. He clearly wasn’t good enough for group level, and this should be a nice toe-in for handicap company in the future. 20/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Month Number One

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    3:00 – Betfred May Hill Stakes (Group Two) – January @ 8/1 (BetVictor)

    For this race, form seems to come from various outlets, but all are usually either Listed or Group company. The favourite for me, is ruled out on that basis having only competed in two novice races.

    Whilst Ryan Moore has elected to ride Ecstatic, I’m opting for January and Sean Levey. She won the Listed Churchill Stakes at Tipperary by four lengths, quite impressively. She’s also joint-top rated at 100, and has the breeding to match, being by Kingman. She also has ground form having broke her maiden on good ground back in June.

    However, Ashnoda has plenty to go for at a bigger price. She won the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood on soft ground, and seems to be rather versatile after winning on firm ground on debut. The form is untested and is steadily, yet impressively. Also joint-top rated she has much more of a say than her 8/1 (William Hill, BetVictor) price suggests.

     

    Midnight Glitter

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    3:35 – Betfred Park Hill Stakes (Group Two) – Night Sparkle @ 7/2 (General)

    It’s a tricky race the Park Hill, but one horse looks to win her first race of the season. Night Sparkle has been extremely unlucky twice this season over 14 furlongs. Her defeats in the Lillie Langtry and Bronte Cup spells out that she loves the trip and looks like opposition that shouldn’t threaten her too much. Good ground won’t bother her either, having finished second in those narrow defeats on good-to-firm and good-to-soft.

    One horse who can say she has won over the distance is the rather looked over Grateful for Aidan O’Brien. The wrong race tactics were applied last time in the Lillie Langtry, as she languished towards the rear. Her win at Fairyhouse showed her up with the pace and holding on strong towards the finish. With the three-year-old weight allowance, she should be shorter than 13/2 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Rock The Boat

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    4:10 – Pertemps Network Handicap – Harper’s Ferry @ 4/1 (General)

    Harper’s Ferry comes into handicap company from a Royal Ascot Group Two. The form from the King Edward VII isn’t great, however Calandagan did finish second behind the best horse in the world, City Of Troy, in the International Stakes. He hasn’t been given top weight, which should play into his advantage. Plus the step down in trip back to 10 furlongs will suit once again.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Three On The Flat

    Four To Follow: Three On The Flat

    The curtain-raiser of the flat season is back. The Lincoln handicap signals the closing of the National Hunt season as we begin the transition to the speed and ferocity of the flat. Newbury offers the big jumps card of the day as we mix between the two genres in the Spring.

     

    Doncaster

    Shining Armour

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    1:20 – William Hill Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed) – Knight @ 3/1 (Unibet)

    It was a disappointing season from Knight last season. He promised a lot as a two-year-old, but never hit the ground running in five group races. He was narrowly beaten at Sandown by Chindit, on soft ground which shows he’ll prefer today’s going. With Charyn wanting better ground, Knight can kick start the flat season with his first win since 2022.

    Astral Beau won this race last year, when rated 86 amongst horses rated 100+. Her victory was mainly based on the heavy going, and with heavy in places in the description she’ll relish the test once again this year. 7/2 (General).

    Dashing Roger can also take advantage of the testing ground. He won two races at the back-end of last season on heavy ground, including a handicap by five-and-a-half lengths. Rossa Ryan is an interesting booking, with plenty of placings in recent days. 25/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Barra-full of Cash

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    3:00 – William Hill Cammidge Trophy (Listed) – Baradar @ 3/1 (BetVictor, Unibet)

    Baradar is stepping into level weights for the first time since 2022, when racing in Ireland. He came third in last year’s Lincoln. He managed to win two class two handicaps last season and will not mind the testing conditions. Listed races can sometimes be tricky to negotiate, but this looks like a nice race for Baradar to dominate.

     

    First Big Flat Handicap

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    3:35 – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) – Lattam @ 11/1 (Unibet)

    A word on the favourites; The Irish haven’t won this race in 40 years, and it doesn’t look like it will be broken with the Irish Lincoln winner carrying an extra five pounds. Liberty Lane looks a little too high in the weights. Despite being drawn on the far side, he’s on the far rail and only a couple of horses have won from that position.

    I like the look of Lattam, running for the first time under Julie Camacho. He’s a winner of the Irish Lincoln and usually performs well first time out in the season. He hasn’t moved off his mark of 95 but will like the ground and performs well at this time in the season.

    Last year’s winner Migration should go well again. He’s four pounds higher in the weights, but he always is on his A game at the start of the season. David Menusier hasn’t been running many horses during the winter, but given he has a 50% strike rate from running two horses, he is a target trainer and will have prepped Migration for this race again. 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Spirit Genie is a live outsider for the race. He performed well at the back-end of last season with a win and a narrow second on similar ground which won’t be a problem. His mark of 86 sees him sneak into to the race, rather than dropping into the Spring Mile. It might be his first time at this level, but Jennie Candlish has managed to win two races from her last five runners at a 40% strike rate. 16/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Something’s In The Room…

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    3:15 – British EBF BetVictor “National Hunt” Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – El Elefante @ 11/2 (BetVictor)

    It took four attempts, but El Elefante finally got her elusive win at Ayr, the Friday before the Festival. The form was well franked after her run in the Rossington Main behind Jeriko Du Reponet. But as he disappointed at the Festival, the second and third didn’t. She remains on the same winning mark as before and despite a high weight she has plenty of talent.

    The very best of luck!

  • Five To Follow | Taking A Noble Hit

    Five To Follow | Taking A Noble Hit

    After last week’s freeze out, the Cheltenham Trials meeting is sure to warm us all up. The stars come out to play, with Jonbon, Paisley Park, The Real Whacker and Il Ridoto to name a few. Plus, Doncaster has a fantastic card to play the support act to Cheltenham. There’s so much going on, we’ve had to make this week, FIVE to follow!

     

    Cheltenham

    Hire The Hitman

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    1:15 – Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – Hitman @ 17/2 (BetVictor)

    Despite being the second string for Paul Nicholls in the race, Hitman has plenty of credentials. He performed well at Cheltenham in his only appearance at Cheltenham. Finishing a good third behind Envoi Allen can’t go unnoticed. He has disappointed since, but a wind op may have cured problems. Freddie Gingell claims a crucial five pounds to make him have a fighting chance and brings plenty of graded form into the race.

    Grandeur D’Ame might not have caused a lot of shockwaves, but finishing fourth behind Fugitif and Il Ridoto on New Year’s Day was a fantastic achievement. He’s been dropped down three pounds by the handicapper, which puts him on terms with Il Ridoto who reopposes. The latter is defending his crown with 10lbs more on his back. Grandeur D’Ame has plenty of each-way claims at 10/1 (Betfred).

    Not many will have heard of Shelia Lewis, but they will have heard of Straw Fan Jack. His last win came at Cheltenham at 2022 and he has been running in far too higher company than he can handle too long. He slips straight in with a mark of 137 and has gone under the nose of the punters and could spring a surprise at 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Don’t Stay Away

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    1:50 – Cotswold Chase (Grade Two) – Stay Away Fay @ 11/4 (BetVictor, BetUK)

    With no top-level chaser in the field, the buck falls to Stay Away Fay. And he can deliver. On a track he’s run at, Nicholl’s has said that he is giving Stay Away Fay a similar prep to last year’s Albert Bartlett run.

    Last year’s winner Ahoy Senor has pulled up twice, once on level weights; Royale Pagaille has never impressed at Cheltenham; Datsalrightgino has a lot to prove on level weights over this distance and despite Paul Townend coming over to ride Capodanno, he will not stay the distance (See Savills Chase replay.)

    It’s a straight match between Stay Away Fay and The Real Whacker, in my opinion, with the novice getting the nod.

     

    You Gotta Love It

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    3:00 – Unibet “International” Hurdle (Grade Two) – Love Envoi @ 7/2 (BetVictor)

    Organisers have moved this race to make it look more of a Champion Hurdle trail. Alas, the Champion Hurdle champion-elect (Constitution Hill) doesn’t turn up. But Lossiemouth has her first run of the season here. And as it’s come so late on in the season, I can only see it being as a prep race and she won’t be as 100% as we’d like her to be.

    Instead Love Envoi looms. She’s better prepped, despite missing her desired race at Lingfield last week. She’s C&D and gave Honeysuckle one hell of a race last March in the Mares’ Hurdle.

     

    A Noble Edition

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    3:35 – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade Two) – Noble Yeats @ 7/2 (General)

    It may seem odd that Noble Yeats comes here rather than the Cotswold, but Emmet Mullins must have the National on his mind. He disappointed over Christmas at Limerick, but you must feel this is a target race before either Festival or National to keep him honest. Paisley Park has been beaten narrowly in both starts this season. Dashel Drasher stayed on well in last year’s renewal, but Noble Yeats could have won, if not for a few mistakes, in the Cotswold Chase last year. A Noble run indeed.

     

    Doncaster

    Looking Forward To This One

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    SBK Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – Forward Plan @ 9/1 (BetUK)

    It’s a very open race, but the ground may give you a clue. The ground is described as good up North after a dry week, which only favours a few horses. One of them being Forward Plan. Anthony Honeyball’s runner won a similar race back December over C&D. He was only raised four pounds and is still well treated by the handicapper for a bigger race.

    Another horse who loves slightly firmer ground is Whistleinthedark. His record on the ground is a first and second. He’s down to the same rating as he was when finishing fourth to Forward Plan back in December. And with his opponent being higher can finish a lot closer at 22/1 (Unibet).

    Top weight Richmond Lake might have more recent form on heavy ground, but he can go on any sort of ground. He’s been dropped two pounds for disappointing at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but Donald McCain’s horses never perform at HQ. His hunting ground is more up North and this seems a more suitable race. Outside chance at 33/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!