Although the British St Leger is in our rear view mirror, it’s Irish St Leger Day and the action from the Curragh, Doncaster, and Longchamp looks appetising.
Reflecting on yesterday, it was a slightly annoying day.
A few horses who made the shortlist before being scratched off went and obliged – a punter’s nightmare – and the finalised selections didn’t perform to expectations.
Nurburgring returned EW profit at 13/2, but the other three weren’t good enough.
Still, we are only 2.75 points down for the week so far, so it’s all to play for today.
1:50 Curragh – Strike Red @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win
Starting at the Curragh, Strike Red is in good form and can return to the winners’ enclosure at a track he knows well.
The six-year-old won at the course over an extended six furlongs last July off a mark of 95, so his current rating of 94 looks very workable.
The track had 1.5mm of rain overnight which will help take some of the sting out of the ground as he wouldn’t want it rattling quick.
A @WilliamHaggas winner at York 👏
Elmonjed takes the Sky Bet Constantine Handicap 🏆#ITVRacing | #EborFestival | @TomMarquand pic.twitter.com/6tj5ChD52u
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) August 24, 2024
When he won at the Curragh last year, he beat Aussie Girl who has improved 13 pounds and Albasheer who has improved eight pounds, so the form looks solid.
Richard Fahey won this race in 2020 and 2015, so he had good success in Ireland, but I am only playing him win-only as he is prone to trouble in-running from stall three.
2:05 Doncaster – Badri @ 13/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW
Forgiving in horse racing is a double-edged sword, but I seem to do it more often than not and that’s the reason why Badri is the selection here.
Of his nine career successes, his winning official ratings are 100, 96, 88, 90, 88, 82, 75, and 80 from latest to oldest.
From his last success off 100 at Ascot, Woolhampton has improved eight pounds, Get It has improved five pounds after a Stewards’ Cup win, and Brave Nation has improved four pounds.
What a star! Badri wins for the fifth time this year at @Ascot for @JCamachoRacing and Ryan Sexton… pic.twitter.com/cj8gGVivNF
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) October 7, 2023
That’s good form and his recent runs suggest he’s in good shape.
Two starts ago, he put in a solid effort over six furlongs in the Racing League when getting no run up the rail and earlier this month he ran well on unpreferable soft ground.
Trainer Michael Herrington has fired in three winners from his last nine runners, so he looks to have a nice chance on paper with an official rating of 88.
3:15 Doncaster – Doom @ 6/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW
In a very similar vein to Badri, I’m not willing to give up on Doom after his poor effort in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes 15 days ago.
I fancied this Dubawi filly strongly at Sandown on her last start, but she never picked up, so I’m willing to draw a line through that run.
Doom winning the Listed Prix Ceres yesterday at Fontainebleau! 🐎🏆 #Winner #SomervilleLodge pic.twitter.com/t97AxUt9tw
— Somerville Lodge Stables (@WilliamHaggas) November 26, 2023
Before that, she finished second to Friendly Soul in the Valiant Stakes who has since won a Group 2 in France and had her form franked thanks to Kalpana.
Out of the Group 1 winner Dank, she has course form having finished second to the subsequent Oaks winner Soul Sister in October 2022 and she has also won over seven furlongs twice.
Yesterday showed what kind of form William Haggas is in, so if the real Doom turns up, she could be too good.
3:35 Curragh – Believing @ 5/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win
For a few weeks, I’ve had Believing on my mind for a big sprint race this season, and it seems like George Boughey has had similar thoughts regarding the Group 1 Flying Five Stakes.
She has three-quarters of a length to make up on Bradsell, but she ended up on the wrong side of the track and the race played out perfectly to suit Bradsell with a rapid pace up the far side rail.
c) she won’t run
According to the below (01:53 onwards), it would suggest that she now goes to the G1 Flying Five at The Curragh. Haydock the week earlier so very unlikely to do both.
Anyway, Regional wins the Sprint Cup…pic.twitter.com/fAJn4epdPq
— Jack (@jacknicolracing) August 23, 2024
Connections have booked Ryan Moore on her return to the Curragh, a track she won at three starts ago in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes, and while stall one isn’t ideal, Fairyland won from that stall in 2019 and A Case Of You was second in 2021 from stall two.
This has been the target for a while and her profile looks positive.
4:10 Curragh – Cowardofthecounty @ 10/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW
All season, I’ve been a fan of Cowardofthecounty, but he has underperformed more times than expected.
His success on debut over course and distance was extremely taking and the form looks great considering Whistlejacket, the July Stakes and Prix Morny winner, was two and a half lengths back in second.
That Cowardofthecounty form…
Whistlejacket looks like a very smart prospect.
Very excited to see @JosephOBrien2’s Kodi Bear colt again 👀 https://t.co/l6nzXbuxxC
— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno) May 6, 2024
After that, he finished seventh in the Coventry Stakes which is good form.
Rashabar (the winner) chased home Whistlejacket in the Prix Morny, Cool Hoof Luke (the fourth) won the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes, and Al Qudra (the fifth) won the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes before nearly winning last night’s Grade 1 Summer Stakes in Woodbine.
His break from the gates in the Anglesey Stakes cost him the race two starts ago, but he put that behind him to win the Group 3 Prix Francois Boutin last month.
After Wolf Of Badenoch let down the Aomori City form yesterday and The Strikin Viking did the same for Henri Matisse’s form in the Gimcrack, it gives more scope to side with a bigger-priced fancy and that’s what Cowardofthecounty is.
4:15 Longchamp – Rogue Lightning @ 4/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win
Over in France, there’s a great card that includes the Group 1 Prix Vermeille, but it’s the Group 3 Prix du Petit Couvert that has caught my attention.
Rogue Lightning, for all he has performed below standard this season, has the standout form in this company.
Firstly, his fifth to Highfield Princess from stall 19 in the Prix de l’Abbaye was a big performance and he then chased home Starlust in the Listed City Walls Stakes two starts later when giving five pounds away.
Dream debut for Kazuo Yokoyama! #横山和生 #DDFShergarCup
Rogue Lightning wins the opener at @Ascot for the Rest Of The World… pic.twitter.com/9AXNRZQdZF
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) August 12, 2023
The winner has finished third in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes subsequently and the third, Democracy Dilemma, has won the Listed Beverley Bullet since.
The predicted soft ground in Paris should cause no issues as the four-year-old by Kodiac has won on good to firm and good to soft ground before.
The cheekpieces have been applied for the first time and this looks like a smart piece of planning from Tom Clover and connections.
5:55 Curragh – Mashhoor @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW
Finally, in the last race of Irish Champions Weekend, I’m returning to the horse I backed in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester in May as Mashhoor warrants respect in this company.
He carries top weight here, but a mark of 105 is nine pounds higher than his last winning mark and Patrick McGettigan claims 10lbs off his back.
I’m not going to claim I know everything about McGettigan, but he has one win under rules from nine rides and he has good experience in the pony racing ranks.
Canny ride! 👏👏
🏇 @BenCoen2 dictates the tempo on Mashhoor and his rivals cannot land a glove on him. It's a third successive win for the five-year-old, trained by @JohnnyMurtagh.@curraghrace | @paddypower pic.twitter.com/Oi4jiTYifN
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) July 1, 2023
Looking back on last year, he beat a slightly below-race-fit Al Riffa in the Group 3 International Stakes over course and distance before he ran a fair race behind Alflaila and My Prospero in the Group 2 York Stakes.
He’s coming into this off a 112-day break, but the race conditions look suited to him and he’s a big price to find out if he’s back to his best.
