Best Of Bets

Tag: Betfred St Leger Stakes

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | Jan Can Pull St Leger Upset

    St Leger Festival 2024 | Jan Can Pull St Leger Upset

    Notable Speech, Elmalka, Ezeliya, the might City of Troy; four classic season winners, but who will join the class of 2024 in Saturday’s St Leger Stakes at Doncaster. Could Jan Brueghel be the surprise package?

    A contest first run in 1776, the annual end-of-season trip to Donnie has been won in the past by the likes Nijinsky, Mutafaweq, Conduit and more recently Hurricane Lane.

    Having won a seventh Leger last season with Continuous, the bookies are again leaning on Aidan O’Brien, this time with Illinois, but could his half brother upset the odds?

     

    Unbeaten streak

    As early racing careers go, there are few that can match Jan Brueghel’s three wins from three, however, in the midst of such a stacked yard, the colt of Galileo feels a little bit of an afterthought.

    That could all change on Saturday.

    Of the seven-horse field of 3yos, the Irish runner may be the least experienced, but any winner of both the International and Gordon Stakes back to back has to be a contender – not least the latter, a victory of gritty proportions.

    Named after the 17th century Flemish painter, Jan Brueghel’s greatest asset looks to be a suiting for all going, with wins on good, soft and faster turf also.

    This weekend, the deck should carry no worries; the bigger test will be the huge jump-up in class, going from Group 3 to Group 1, without having a single Group 2 entry under the belt.

    That, and the small task of taking on the reigning Queen’s Vase winner, one of the best runners over 12 furlongs.

     

    Eighth challenge

    Jan Brueghel will be a strong opponent in Saturday’s St Leger, but Illinois heads the market, given his win at the Royal Meet in June.

    Illinois may only have two wins from seven, but his follow up runner-ups in the Grand Prix de Paris and Great Voltigeur could have easily gone differently with a little more fortune.

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    O’Brien’s third challenger, also a sibling of both Jan Brueghel and Illinois, Grosvenor Square may have drifted in the market, but can mount a stay.

    Unlike the latter, the mount of Gavin Ryan travels to Doncaster off a win in the Irish St Leger trial at the Curragh last month, and though with little experience on UK turf, can’t be overlooked.

     

    Got To be in with chance

    With the King of Ballydoyle holding three of the top four entries, the most likely to throw a spanner in the Irish works appears to be Hector Crouch and You Got To Me.

    Certainly if punter’s money is anything to go by, Ralph Beckett’s hope has been backed from 8/1 earlier in the week now to around 11/2 with Unibet.

    His own chances are not without merit with an Irish Oaks in the trophy room, Content with a runners-up place in the Yorkshire Oaks also.

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    Placing in both Ribblesdale and his prior classic, the Oaks proper, You Got To Me is very comfortable in elite company and will fancy his chances.

    Of the remaining trio of entries, Sunway for David Menuisier might be a nice e/w play.

    A two-time winner in France, the runner-up of last year’s Champagne Stakes at Doncaster forced Los Angeles’ hand in the Irish Derby this summer, proving his credentials.

    Drawn in stall 2, if Sunway gets the rub of the turf, French eyes could be smiling at 13/2 with 10Bet.

     

    The 2024 Betfred St Leger Stakes takes place on Saturday at 3:40pm UK time.

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day Three

    St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day Three

    It’s the final classic of the year, the St Leger Festival at Doncaster. This Festival allows us to not only crown the winner of the oldest classic, but also to watch out for the future with plenty two-year-old action too. Today on day three, it’s the big one. The St Leger might look a little subdued on paper with the lack of runners, but it’s still tricky to call.

     

    Beware The Wolf

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    1:50 – Betfred Champagne Stakes (Group Two) – Wolf Of Badenoch @ 7/2 (General)

    I’m trying to work out why Chancellor is favourite, and not Wolf Of Badenoch. He finished second in a Group Two at Goodwood, which is usually the form race, and has the form backed up by Cool Hoof Luke who he beat into fourth. Out of the two horses rated in the race, he’s miles clear at 106 and stands for a lot more. He’s also a C&D winner on similar ground too when he won on debut. Hard not to oppose.

     

    Love Story

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    2:25 – Betfred Portland (Heritage Handicap) – American Affair @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    Last week he was desperately close to winning in the Be Friendly Handicap, but American Affair could well go close again. Paul Mulrennan is back on top, who has won on him before. He keeps her mark of 92 as Shagraan now goes above 100, which gives American Affair a chance to overturn the result. He won’t mind the ground, having won at Musselburgh on a similar surface early on in the year. He’s also drawn on the rail on the far side, which can be an advantage.

    Vintage Clarets was eighth in a bunch finish at York last time out in the Symphony Group handicap, and has been lowered two pounds for the run. That puts him on a mark in between two winning marks. That should mean if conditions are to suit, he won’t be far away. He’s also drawn over on the far side, so a slight track advantage as well. 12/1 (General).

     

    Poetry In Motion

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    3:00 – Betfred Park Stakes (Group Two) – Poet Master @ 5/1 (Betfred, Boylesports)

    Poet Master might not be a name that has hit the heights this season, but he has been impressive. Especially in his last race at The Curragh when winning by almost four lengths. Mutasarref, third, went and won the Group Three Desmond Stakes and has a good chance in the Solonaway Stakes over at The Curragh today. With the form backed up, and a winner on this card last year, Poet Master is the one to stick with. Particularly with the price.

     

    Three Of A Kind

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    3:40 – Betfred St Leger (GROUP ONE) – Illinois @ 2/1 (General)

    Aidan O’Brien holds the all the cards in this race, once again. With three extremely talented colts, you could make a case for all of them. But Illinois has been bred for the race. A half-brother to Danedream and black type throughout his pedigree made him look like a Classic winner on paper. He won the big trial for this race, the Queen’s Vase, and was second in two other pointer races in the Grand Prix de Paris and the Great Voltiguer. Only beaten by a neck last time out shows that he will suit a mile and six furlongs down to the ground.

    A little forgotten about is Grosvenor Square. Many people will look at him as a pace angle, but don’t forget what he achieved this season. A 20 length win in the Irish St Leger Trial and second to Tower Of London, against older horses too, in the Curragh Cup. Whilst Jan Breughel has impressed the pundits, Grosvenor Square should not go unheard of. Worth a go at 11/2 (BetVictor).

    Click here for Irish Champions Weekend Tips.

    The very best of luck!

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | January is coming

    St Leger Festival 2024 | January is coming

    After a small hiatus, the regular betting columns for Best Of Bets are back just in time for the start of the Doncaster St Leger meeting.

    When we left this column in July, the P/L stood at +15.7 points after a disappointing final few weeks.

    So, let’s dive into Day 1 of the Doncaster St Leger meeting.

     

    3:00 Doncaster – January @ 6/1 with SkyBet – 1pt EW

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    Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Ecstatic in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes, but Aidan O’Brien’s other runner January makes the most appeal to me.

    The two-year-old by Kingman has a smart pedigree as she is out of I Can Fly who finished a close second to Roaring Lion in the 2018 Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

    On debut, she ran a solid race behind stablemate Heavens Gate – who already had a race under her belt – which looks like good form as she has subsequently placed in two Group races and won the Ballyhane Stakes.

    Two starts later, she put in another solid performance in the Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes, a race that has seen California Dreamer come out and finish behind the subsequent Group 1 winner Babouche in the Anglesey Stakes.

    Having won by a comfortable four lengths over seven and a half furlongs at Tipperary last time out, trying a mile for the first time looks like a natural step.

    Although this is her fifth race as a juvenile, I Can Fly was a highly-tried mare who continued to get better with age, so we probably won’t see the best of her until at least next season.

    Despite that, her form looks good enough to take a chance on her here.

     

    3:35 Doncaster – Night Sparkle @ 4/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    In what looks like a winnable Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes, Night Sparkle has a great chance to break her run of near misses.

    Since moving to Andrew Baling from Michael O’Callaghan, she has run two solid races behind Term Of Endearment – the latest of which when finishing ahead of Ciaus Chorister who was second to Absurde at Chester recently – as well as two good runs against the boys over two miles.

    The first of which occurred in the Listed Marathon Stakes at Sandown when second to Trueshan and the second was in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup behind Vauban, Al Nayyir, and Gregory.

    Both of those races look like good form and it looks as if 1m6f is the perfect distance for her.

    As much as Sumo Sam, on her second start after a wind-op, is a danger at 12/1, I think Night Sparkle has the ability to show her class in this company.

     

    4:40 Doncaster – Jorge Alvares @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Jorge Alvares was a horse that caught my eye after his run in the Harry’s Half Million By Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes at York, so I want to keep him onside on his handicap debut.

    With a rating of 82 after a two-pound rise from his last run, the gelding by Cotai Glory came from the rear of the field on the wrong side of the pack to finish a good fourth.

    Arizona Blaze, who finished second, brought Group form into the race, so the form looks better than average.

    Furthermore, from his debut run at York, Yah Mo Be There (second) has won a Listed race since and Andesite (first) was chucked straight into Group 2 company on his next run.

    Having run well on good to soft and good to firm before, any ground is fine for him.

     

    5:10 Doncaster – Defence Missile @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    From one nursery handicap to another, Defence Missile looks like a worthy bet off a mark of 79 with the first-time cheekpieces applied.

    On debut, he finished second to Mr Chaplin who has a rating of 96 having won a Class 2 handicap at Goodwood subsequently.

    Two starts later, he was a good third in a Salisbury novice stakes when trying to make all, form that looks good as Royal Playwright ran well behind Field Of Gold in the Solario Stakes and Original Outlaw chased home Mr Chaplin in that handicap at Goodwood.

    The son of Sottsass is a well-bred horse running in a 0-80, and with a run on the all-weather 22 days ago under his belt, he should be primed to go well here.

  • St. Leger Festival | Four To Follow: Classic Charge

    St. Leger Festival | Four To Follow: Classic Charge

    The winners have kept coming and coming for us in this year’s St. Leger Festival, and let’s hope the page can end on a high today with the big race itself the centrepiece of Doncaster’s season. Here’s Saturday’s Four To Follow plus St. Leger fancy.

     

    Rose Champagne

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    1:50 – Betfred Champagne Stakes (Group Two) – Rosallion @ 4/9 (William Hill)

    Down the years the Champagne Stakes has always been a good looking contest, but today it’s more of an open and shut case. Rosallion annihilated the field in the Pat Eddery at Ascot on his last start, and the form got a major boost with Dancing Gemini winning yesterday. Bred by Blue Point, he has the ability to go on softer ground and Richard Hannon’s record in recent years is also key to this horse’s chances.

     

    King Of Town Moor

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    2:25 – Betfred Portland (Heritage H’cap) – King’s Lynn @ 10/1 (Betfred)

    The Portland is always an interesting race, and this year’s renewal looks more open than ever. I’m siding with King’s Lynn, formerly of Royal ownership, for his record on soft ground. He hated the bottomless ground at Goodwood, but has better record on soft ground. He has won two Doncaster sprints before, including the 2-Y-O sales race and the Wentworth Stakes (soft) in 2021. Despite not winning a heritage handicap, the ground may play a factor to other horses who will prefer it firmer, and King’s Lynn can use the far side rail to his advantage.

    Sticking with the soft theme, Live In The Moment could make it a momentous year for De’Lemos’. The owners who won with Live In The Dream have an outside chance with this one who won a class four handicap at Goodwood last time out. He’ll want a better race here, and with the ground to a likeable soft, and with experience in top level handicaps, he can spring a surprise. Each-way shout at 16/1 (William Hill)

    One more to consider is Dakota Gold. Although you would rather be seeing him up at York, Dakota Gold and Michael Dods have a liking for any Yorkshire track. Despite Dods not winning the race, he has won a class two handicap with Dakota Gold before at their November meeting. The soft ground is to Dakota Gold’s preference, and is back to a winning mark of 100. And old reliable at 22/1 (Betfred)

     

    A Softie Spy

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    3:00 – Betfred Park Stakes (Group Two) – Spycatcher @ 6/4 (Betfred)

    There’s only two horses that have reliable soft ground form in the race. Spycatcher and Biggles. It would be worth having those two in a reverse forecast, but outright Spycatcher has the form to go on, after been beaten by a head in a French Group One last time out. His season started brilliantly with a win of seven furlongs at Thirsk on soft ground, and was placed in the Victoria Cup in May. It’s those kinds of results that make him the pick of the bunch here.

     

    Another Frankie Fairytale

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    3:35 – Betfred St. Leger Stakes (Group One) – Arrest @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    A lot of people are saying that Frankie Dettori has made the wrong choice in the St. Leger. He should have Gregory who has the ‘Group One form’. Gregory hasn’t run in a Group One, and, for me, he didn’t look like the St. Leger winner in the Queen’s Vase. He ran his worst race in the Great Voltigeur and looking back on the Queen’s Vase, he still looked quite green and inexperienced.

    But Arrest, for me, holds all the aces. He was disappointing at Epsom, because he didn’t handle the ground. The one thing we haven’t seen Gregory do is act on soft ground. Four winners in the last ten years ran in the Epsom Derby and went to win here. Arrest is the only horse in the field to have done so. His run at Newbury was a step up in distance and, albeit a warm-up, it shows that he relished the step up in trip and has more than a chance to win the final classic of the season. I say Frankie’s judgement is perfect.

    You can have a more in depth look at the St. Leger here

    The very best of luck!

  • St. Leger Festival | Desert Hero Eyes Royal Glory

    St. Leger Festival | Desert Hero Eyes Royal Glory

    So we’re under way for St. Leger week at Doncaster.

    As flat racing festival season comes to a conclusion, Saturday’s main event sees the final classic of 2023, the St. Leger Stakes.

    Now approaching its 150th anniversary, the greats of thoroughbred racing boast wins in this race; Nijinsky, Conduit and last year, Eldar Eldarov took the winning post.

    However, just once in the post-war era has a royal winner been crowned in the shape of Dunfermline way, way back when Willie Carson rode to glory in 1977.

    Some 46 years on, could Desert Hero be about to change all that?

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    Ascot majesty

    Winding back the clock three months to a baked Royal Ascot, one of the highlights of the week saw Desert Hero and Valiant King complete a famous royal 1-2 in the King George V Stakes.

    The first Royal winner since the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, the win was equally special with King Charles in attendance.

    Having backed up a memorable Royal meet with the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last month, Desert Hero now makes the step up in both class and trip.

    Not only will the St. Leger be the colt’s first Group 1 outing, the 3yo travels over 1m4f for for the first time.

    This really is a litmus test for the 3yo, but having won three of the last four races since October, Desert Hero has real chances with Tom Marquand on board.

     

    A classic Dettori swansong?

    Standing in the way of what would be a momentous win for trainer William Haggas, lies a certain Frankie Dettori.

    Widely expected to jump on Gregory for the Leger, it is Arrest who gets the nod, perhaps due to expected tackier ground in Donny this weekend.

    Regardless, this is the veteran’s final festival appearance after a storied 35-year career, and Dettori has already enjoyed Group 1 and classics success this year.

    After one more 2000 Guineas winner in his former adopted home of Newmarket on Chaldean, victory followed in the shape of Courage Mon Ami in the Ascot Gold Cup.

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    Dettori was denied a Derby farewell in flaming June, but further Group 1 success came in the Queens Vase – on the shunned Gregory.

    Drawing an elite blank at Glorious Goodwood, the Italian again stormed back to win the Juddmonte on Mostahdaf.

    Seeking a remarkable 24th winner on Saturday, Dettori most recently tasted St. Leger victory with Logician four years back.

     

    The pretenders

    Come late Saturday afternoon, the 2023 edition of the classics will be written, but who will etch their name into the final chapter?

    Mawj, Soul Sister, Auguste Rodin followed in the footsteps of Chaldean with a classic win and if Arrest obliges also, Dettori will have bagged three classics as his final swansong.

    In recent days, Aidan O’Brien has seen a Continuous 11/4 antepost move for his strong hope, but is currently back to around 4/1.

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    Winner of the Voltigeur at Ebor, the colt also boasts a runner-up from the King Edward Stakes in June.

    Perhaps going against him will be the ground – unlikely to anything close to his four outings this term – but with that said, Continuous does have a French win in the wet to fall back on.

    O’Brien’s other three in the race, Tower of London, Alexandroupolis and Denmark, although friendless in the markets, could all see nibbles.

    Whilst the King of Ballydoyle has four entries, John and Thady Gosden have two others chances, and a scorned Gregory might have a thing to say with Kieran Shoemark in tow.

    Indeed, the 3yo’s only loss in four was last time out, albeit to Continuous.

    Dettori might be the romantics favourite come Saturday, but short of a poetic send-off from Doncaster for Frankie, Desert Hero would likely grab the bigger headlines with victory.

    Racing history beckons.

     

    The Betfred St. Leger Stakes takes place over 1m6½f on Saturday at 15:35.