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Category: Horse Racing

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Handicap Hurdles

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Handicap Hurdles

    With just under a week away from the roar, the handicaps are beginning to take shape, with further scratchings today. This article is written in anticipation of the said horses running and odds at NRNB prices.

     

    Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle – 2m 5F – Premier Handicap

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    Handicaps in general at the Festival can usually be chalked up as a British win. But the Coral Cup has a few Irish runners that are more than capable of winning without causing an upset.

    Sa Majeste has two entries, both of which he’s favourite for. According to the handicapper, this horse has been the most difficult to handicap with just four runs over hurdles, two in France and two in Ireland. With the lack of experience, he’s given a mark of 140. He carries more weight in the Martin Pipe so may look to come here instead.

    Doddiethegreat has had a first full season over fences and has been improving from run to run. Since winning a two-mile introductory hurdle, he’s gone straight into handicapping finishing second at Cheltenham and fourth in the Betfair Hurdle. He’s very lightly weighted which takes a lot of appeal. However, the step up in trip is a question mark.

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    This has been the race Langer Dan has prepared all season for. Last year he won of a mark of 141, this year he goes off at 141. Whether Dan Skelton told the jockeys to school Langer Dan around his races to get the mark lowered, or whether he hasn’t been himself this season is a big question. Last year he only ran three times and performed equally as poor and went to win the race. However, he has been suffering from ulcers which may rule him out entirely.

    Built By Ballymore will need plenty of rain to perform but has been a major improver this season. He’s won his last two races by 12 lengths each and has been given a lenient mark of 139. However, bottomless ground will be needed to compete.

    Verdict:

    The principles are all well weighted and I can’t find many down the market to down them. Despite four of the last six priced 20/1 or bigger, the handicapper may have underestimated Sa Majeste. The form was backed by Noble Yeats form his run at Limerick and will take advantage of the lighter weight on his back for this race. 11/2 (Betfred, Unibet).

    Each-way picks: With the ground reading Soft and rain forecast this weekend at Cheltenham, Built By Ballymore is worth a few quid too. 12/1 (BetVictor, Unibet).

    Out of the principles, Lucky Place ran a stormer over C&D, making well-fancied Gidleigh Park to work for his win. Lightly handicapped too and should go on soft ground. 14/1 (Unibet).

     

    Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle – 2m 7F 213yds – Premier Handicap

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    One of the hardest races to predict in the entire Festival. The Irish seem to dominate the race which seems to be the way to go for this race.

    Cleatus Poolaw could make it four victories in the Pertemps for Gordon Elliott after a successful season over hurdles for the first time. He finished behind Ballyburn when he broke his maiden and fared well on his last start when hiked up in trip to finish second in a Qualifier. A nine-pound rise for an Irish horse is a fair mark.

    Remember Chantry House? He won the Marsh (Now Turner’s) Chase way back in 2021. Since then, he’s failed to make an impact on chasing, apart from his win in the 2022 Cotswold Chase. He managed to sneak in to the Pertemps when finishing fourth at Huntingdon. He’s been dropped two pounds for that run and might just have its benefits for a former Festival winner.

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    Gaoth Chuil has had a similar record to Cleatus Poolaw this season. Plenty of seconds and one win. That win came in the Pertemps Qualifier over Christmas and was hiked up six pounds before finishing within a length of Maxxum in the DRF. It’s another six-pound rise by the British handicapper, which he can easily defy.

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    It’s been a busy old season for Icare Allen, with a trip to Aintree confirming his spot in the Pertemps, when finishing third. He remains on the same mark of 142 but looks too high in the handicap in a competitive field.

    Verdict:

    All the horses mentioned above are single-figure prices. I fancy one a little juicer. Gabby’s Cross fits the Irish narrative, trained by Henry de Bromhead. His last two runs have seen him finish second and hasn’t been seen in over 100 days to protect the handicap mark. A mark of shrewdness on de Bromhead’s part. 10/1 (General).

    Each-way picks: Springwell Bay is an out an out three-miler. He’s only been risen two pounds for finishing a neck down in his last run. Such leniency gives him a big chance to claim this race for the British. 12/1 (BetUK).

    The ground will have to be testing, but Cuthbert Dibble has had nothing to complain about all season. A six-pound rise may seem a little step for finishing half-a-length up at Haydock last time out. But if Gaoth Chuil can handle it, so can he. 14/1 (Betfred, BetUK).

     

    County Handicap Hurdle – 2m 179yds – Premier Handicap

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    Possibly the most entertaining race of the week. And with the ‘State Man’ rule now in place, the playing field has finally levelled.

    King Of Kingsfield finished behind Ballyburn and Slade Steel last time out, by 14 lengths. His only win came over Mirazur West in a maiden hurdle, of which the second went and followed up. He looks to have some great talent, but Gordon Elliott isn’t prolific in this race.

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    Nicky Henderson also doesn’t have a great record in the race, but Iberico Lord has landed some big prizes already this term. A Greatwood and Betfair Hurdle has seen him shoot up the ratings. A full nine pounds higher, it might just be a step too far.

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    Absurde’s last win came in the Ebor in August under a certain Frankie Dettori in a completely different discipline. Afterwards he headed to the Melbourne Cup in an unusual preparation to get him back over the hurdles for the Winter. He wasn’t too far behind King Of Kingsfield in fourth at the DRF, but will want the ground quite dry.

    Dan Skelton has a fantastic record in the race and is usually the flag bearer for the British in the County. This time he has elected L’Eau Du Sud as his main pick. When running in the Greatwood, he was pulled up to not travelling. That was his first time out this season but ran a tremendous race in the Betfair Hurdle. A six-pound rise may seem harsh, but he seems to be well handicapped for the race.

    Verdict:

    King Of Kingsfield may look the best on paper, but with Gordon Elliott’s record in the race I’m siding with L’Eau Du Sud. He wasn’t up to his best at the start of the season but seems to come alive towards the end. He represents the value of the principals. 12/1 (William Hill, 888Sport, BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Lump Sum is one of the best form horses in the race. It was unusual that he didn’t hold an entry for the Supreme after he won the Dovecote at Kempton. He was only behind Jeriko Du Reponet in his only loss of the season, which shows you the talent this horse possess. 14/1 (Unibet, BetUK, BetGoodwin).

    Impose Toi was only a neck behind Luccia in the Betfair Exchange Trophy and came third in a Lanzarote Hurdle that fell apart. He also has course experience after winning at the November meeting this season. He remains on the same mark as the Lanzarote. 18/1 (BetUK).

     

    Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle – 2m 4F 56yds – Class 2

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    The final race of the Festival is always one where we reminisce. And sometimes, the lucky last comes up trumps.

    The stars seem to have aligned for Quai De Bourbon as Gigginstown and Willie Mullins team up for this horse. The last time the connections teamed up for a winner in the race was Don Poli back in 2014. Quai De Bourbon may want the ground to be running soft, but has been given a fair mark of 140, which is high enough in the weights.

    Sa Majeste should go to the Coral Cup to avoid carrying an extra five pounds in this race, so Lisnagar Fortune should take his place as second favourite.

    He represents the same connections as Festival winner Lisnagar Oscar. He was only beaten by a shoulder by Readin Tommy Wrong and ahead of Staffordshire Knot, which is the form race for novices in Ireland. The weight may be high but has plenty of quality on the evidence of his last win.

    No Ordinary Joe has two options of going to the Coral Cup or here and as explained is a little more fancied for the former.

    Waterford Whispers is not the best handicapped horse in the field after four runs over hurdles. He’s been given a mark of 130, after rising 10 pounds by the British handicapper. He has some talent, but the rise may be too steep.

    Verdict:

    Favourite backers should end on a high as Quai De Bourbon looks to be well handicapped for his talents. Connections have taken a while to rekindle their relationship but look to have a great future ahead of them. This horse should kick off a new dawn of a once formidable partnership. 4/1 (William Hill, 888Sport, BetUK).

    Each-way pick: The form race from Cork is one I’ll always fall back on and Lisnagar Fortune came out with a lot of fighting spirit. His form has already been backed up by Readin Tommy Wrong, but expect him to go favourite, or close to, if he wins his novice hurdle. 10/1 (General).

    Answer To Kayf looks a little more interesting at a price. Behind Loughglynn over Christmas, he won a competitive novice hurdle over Captain Cody. The handicapper has been generous raising him only three pounds and looks a good each-way chance. 14/1 (General).

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Handicap Chases

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Handicap Chases

    Amongst all the championship races and the novice races, the Festival is littered with fantastic handicap chases. We deep dives into the most competitive races of the week.

     

    Ultima Handicap Chase – 3m 1F – Premier Handicap

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    This year, the race serves as the third hardest race of the day and could lend a hand to those in need. Last year Corach Rambler repeated an unprecedented success in the Ultima before going on to win the Grand National.

    The favourite is a recent JP McManus purchase, Meetingofthewaters. He won the Paddy Power Chase over Christmas by a huge four-and-a-half lengths but couldn’t repeat the feat when unseating the first in the Leopardstown Chase. That still hasn’t stopped the handicapper raising him two more pounds but is full of promise.

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    There is a curse on the Irish in this race, but The Goffer looks to have been campaigned for this race. He finished fourth last year off a mark of 149 and has dropped to 147 this time around. His best finish this season was fifth in the Kerry National and hasn’t been seen since the Munster National, possibly to protect the handicap mark.

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    Spearheading the British challenge is locally trained Chianti Classico. Campaigned for this race since winning at Ascot, Chianti Classico is a fantastic jumper. He pulled up, along with others, in the Albert Bartlett last year but looks to have settled better over fences. There’s an argument that he prefers going right, but that, in my opinion, is nonsense.

    Giovinco is Lucinda Russell’s top hope for the race and has been a delight to watch. A proper tough horse that could well take over from Corach Rambler in the future. Notably he managed to keep up with Stay Away Fay at Sandown which attracted some attention. He remains at the same winning mark for when he won his prep race at Newcastle.

    Verdict:

    Chianti Classico has all the trends in his favour. Novices seem to have the upper hand in recent years and Chianti Classico has outclassed many of his rivals in the division. If he gets in, as it stands, he will be incredibly well-weighted for the task. 8/1 (General).

    Each-way: Trelawne looks to be an improving novice. He won at the start of the season but has ran into some good horses along the way. He could have just downed Tahmuras at Exeter last time out, but the heavy ground was against him. A winner over three miles over hurdles last season, he has a good mark to work on for his first test over the distance this season. 14/1 (General).

    One horse who looks to get in is Annual Invictus, who will need the ground to dry out. He raced in last year’s Kim Muir, finishing eighth. But when racing at Cheltenham, he’s unbeaten on the old course. Despite on a career mark, he should carry a low weight and run to a place, at least. 25/1 (Unibet, BetUK).

     

    Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase – 1m 7F 199yds – Premier Handicap

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    It’s not billed as the best handicap of the meeting, but it’s still worth getting stuck into with plenty of value around.

    My Mate Mozzie has a good chance coming in this, off a back of a novice chase win back over C&D in October. He then finished behind Found A Fifty, who is one of the main hopes for the Arkle. However, the handicapper has been far too harsh on him, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the market opens up even further if he goes to the Arkle.

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    The green and gold comes next in the market, with an unlucky loser in recent times. Saint Roi hasn’t won since the 2022 Racing Post Novice Chase and has constantly fell into some of the best two-milers around. With all that graded form, he could come in here and win well of a high weight.

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    Harper’s Brook looks overpriced as third favourite. With just a four-pound rise after his win when stepping back to two miles, it looks very attractive. Particularly when connections aren’t mulling about with this race or the Ultima. This is his only entry and looks to take advantage of it.

    Libberty Hunter ran a cracker of a race on New Year’s Day when beating the well fancied Matata. He will want plenty of dig in the ground. And with the going soft, he looks like he has an excellent chance to land a hattrick of wins.

    Verdict:

    Of the principles mentioned, I’d side with Harper’s Brook. However, my main pick is Path D’oroux. He’s ran two great races in second, with plenty in hand over the third placed horse both times. Despite that, he’s still looking for his first elusive win over fences. But Cheltenham’s top trainer has always delivered at every meeting, bar Trial’s Day, so far. 10/1 (William Hill, 888Sport, BetVictor, Betfred).

    Each-way pick: Calico has gone under the radar this season yet put up a stormer of a performance against Triple Trade at the November meeting. He finished well behind Madara and then put up a good performance in the Great Yorkshire Chase. The handicap mark has been relatively untouched, now back to 143. He’s always ran to place at Cheltenham and can do once again. 16/1 (General).

     

    Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase – 2m 4F 127yds – Premier Handicap

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    There’s always a big handicap chase over two-and-a-half miles at every meeting at Cheltenham, and it sometimes one of the best races of the Festival.

    Crebilly looks to be the best weighted horse in all the Festival handicaps. He looks like he’ll have almost a stone in hand by the declaration stage. Despite falling at Cheltenham on his first start this season, he looked as though he could well beat Ginny’s Destiny. On his second start at Cheltenham, he had an off day jumping wise but was back to his best at Exeter in testing conditions.

    Theatre Man just didn’t have enough but lost nothing in defeat to Ginny’s Destiny. It was impressive considering it was his first time at that level. This might just be a level he’s not ready for. Despite looking well-weighted, he’ll have a tough order trying to peg back the favourite.

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    Letsbeclearaboutit was impressive at the start of the season but was oddly stepped up to over three miles after a good performance in a big a handicap over two. This looks to be his true distance but might be a tad too high in the handicap anyway.

    Madara is siding towards the Grand Annual and Ga Law will be supplemented for the Ryanair. So, Saint Felicien is next in the market. He is one who will need the ground testing. He managed to break his duck in the nick of time, beating Aime Desjy at Gowran. But the handicapper has been far too harsh on a horse who’s only started chasing and pulled up in last year’s Coral Cup.

    Verdict:

    Crebilly is the best weighted horse in the race full stop. Barring that fall in November, he may have beaten Ginny’s Destiny. His run at Exeter looked to be more professional and ironed out those novicey mistakes. He may be short in the market, but he’s the play. 4/1 (BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Excello looked fantastic at Ascot at the Long Walk Meeting. But came to Cheltenham on Trials Day and looked to be with a chance at the third last. He wasn’t fluent and lost all of his momentum. He’s been dropped tow pounds. But you have a feeling he’s been prepped for a run at this. 25/1 (Unibet, BetUK).

     

    Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase – 3m 2F – Premier Handicap

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    Once again, it’s an Irish dominated field for the Kim Muir. This race is all about the amateur jockeys, so the next big name in jumps racing could come out and win this race.

    Inothewayurthinkin is wildly stepped up in trip form two-and-a-half miles. It’s been gradual this season, but this is his biggest test. The handicapper has also given him top weight, even without a win this season. His handicap debut last time out was hampered by a faller, so can he bounce back this time?

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    Good Time Jonny finished in front of Inothewayurthinkin but was far behind on his start after that when 59 lengths down in third. But he was last year’s Pertemps winner and goes off the same mark this year. But there’s a big question as to whether he’s good over the bigger obstacles.

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    Perceval Legallois also has doubts over his jumping. Her’s fallen twice and was way behind in the Drinmore. He won on debut at Galway, but the form from the race was only franked by Meetingofthewaters. He will get the distance after winning over three miles over hurdles.

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    You have to go way down the market to look for the first British runner to appear. Bowtogreatness for Ben Pauling has had a mixed season but seems to be hitting the spot just at the right moment. He was beaten by Forward Plan in the Coral Trophy and just couldn’t match the winner. But he ran a stellar race in his own right and remains on the same mark as last time out.

    Verdict:

    Last year’s winner Angels Dawn could make it back-to-back in the Kim Muir. He may be 11 pounds higher than last year but ran a cracking race in the Thyestes at Gowran. He looks to have been campaigned with this race in mind and despite a high weight, can take advantage of the poor jumpers at the front of the market. 10/1 (BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Weveallbeencaught is going in one of the staying chases but looks to have a better chance here. He wasn’t on his day last time out and as a result has seen his handicap mark drop slightly. He has a liking for Cheltenham and can run to a place. 14/1 (General).

    I really hope Where It All Began runs. It was the same race Angels Dawn ran in last season on his way to winning this race. He won the Irish National Trial at a canter and has crept into the conversation after the win. He’s constantly on the improve and worth a shot if he comes here. 20/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, BetUK).

  • Cheltenham 2024 | The Cheltenham Triple | Galopin Des Champs

    Cheltenham 2024 | The Cheltenham Triple | Galopin Des Champs

    For Galopin Des Champs, legend beckons as he looks to retain the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup.

    As the roar builds ahead of this year’s National Hunt pilgrimage to Gloucestershire, the countdown to Cheltenham 2024 is almost at an end.

    Despite the wholly deflating news that Constitution Hill will not be running this year, this year’s edition promises again to bring classic competition.

    So, with one giant void to fill, could Paul Townend and his trusty steed become the punters’ big favourite?

     

    Greatness beckons

    Whilst it may be true that Galopin Des Champs has not enjoyed the rousing success of his last run-up to the Festival, the past 12 months have still brought glitter.

    Once again the king of Leopardstown, the 8yo gelding comes to Cheltenham having defended his Irish Gold Cup crown last month.

    However, unlike Cheltenham 2023, the toast of the Willie Mullins crop has been beaten twice in build-up; both at Punchestown in Grade 1 company.

    But Galopin Des Champs is nothing if not a comeback king.

    Set to make it a Cheltenham double in 2022 after his win in the Martin Pipe Conditional Handicap, Galopin and Townend suffered agony in the Turners Novices’ Chase.

    With a 12-length lead and further glory beckoning, his fall at the last was a stunner.

    Yet, one year on, his sterling finish in front of the stands was the ultimate redemption story.

     

    Fastorslow heads rivals

    Though a considerable favourite for back-to-back wins – 5/4 with William Hill at time of writing – Galopin Des Champs has his hooves full and is in a very familiar Gold Cup crowd.

    His main rival in the antepost looks to be 5/1 Fastorslow and for very good reason.

    Indeed, the slate against Martin Brassil’s 8yo stands at 1-2, with defeat in both Punchestown Gold Cup and Chase either side of the summer jumps break.

    Then finally coming out on top last time out in winning a second Irish Gold Cup, has that win now tipped the balance in Galopin’s favour?

    Then of course, there is the enigma that is Shishkin.

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    Second to 13/2 Rachael Blackmore and Envoi Allen in the Ryanair last year, it feels like the now 10yo has unfinished business at Cheltenham.

    Forced to pull-up in the Champion Chase in 2022, his prior two visits to the Festival saw victories in the SkyBet Supreme and the Arkle as overwhelming favourite.

    Shishkin will be reliant on rain in the coming week, but remains a 13/2 punt with BetUK.

    Ready to spoil all three parties, Gerri Colombe is poised in the shadows.

    Runner-up to Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase over Christmas, the Gordon Elliott-trained son of Saddle Maker is looking himself to go one step further from last year’s Brown Advisory.

    A race dominated by the Irish in the last five years, Elliott is yet to taste Gold Cup glory. Could Cheltenham 2024 be his time?

     

    Outsiders

    Of the bigger price punts, Hewick must be worth an e/w gamble.

    Though the ground at Cheltenham is currently soft, with little rain in the forecast, if the ground does firm up a bit more, the King George VI winner will fancy his chances of a golden Grade 1 double.

    Hewick’s only Cheltenham trip to date was as a faller in last year’s edition, but well in contention with four to jump, his chances are there.

    Certainly, don’t count out Hewick if he’s in the shake-up at 20/1 with 888sport.

    Two other contenders could complicate matters for the favourite.

    Firstly, ahead of defending his Grand National crown next month at a heavier weight, Corach Rambler returns to the Festival seeking a third successive victory after a two-year stint in the Ultima Chase.

    In his two trips in stepping down from the 4m trek since, Derek Fox came home in 5th and 3rd the last two outings, showing evidence of real progression in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Haydock last November.

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    But will Corach Rambler be a tad rusty ahead of this big Aintree date? Perhaps, but the Ramblers-owned runner has already proven a liking for good to soft ground at 20s with BetVictor – the potential going come Friday.

    One final interest, at an even steeper 50/1 shot with BetFred, might Nassalam carry his form over the Welsh border from Chepstow?

    A winner in both the Welsh National Trial and National proper, Gary Moore’s stable has been in rare form this winter.

    There will be serious questions over his position in far more elite company and over this trip, but other 50/1 shots have looked bigger punts.

     

    Galopin Des Champs defends his crown in The Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday 15 March at 15:30 GMT. 

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Juvenile Races & The Bumper

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Juvenile Races & The Bumper

    The juvenile hurdles are always intriguing, but it looks like we’ve seen a standout performer already. The handicap for juveniles includes plenty of plot jobs to keep a keen eye on. And the bumper, as always, is a lottery.

     

    Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – 2m 87yds – Premier Handicap

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    The one key statistic to work out this race is juveniles that have lost their maiden tag. Nine out of the last 10 winners have won the race with a 1 by their name.

    Lark In The Mornin was heavily punted a few weeks ago, but missed his pre-Cheltenham run due to heavy ground. If he had run and won one of those races his price would be a lot shorter. However, he looks like he won’t be coming.

    Batman Girac has run in two Graded races and was best result fourth in a juvenile hurdle on Boxing Day. Kargese backed the form up at the DRF, which meant the handicapper had no choice but to bump him up to a harsh mark.

    Milan Tino has course form and has been consistently placed each time. Behind both Burdett Road and Sir Gino, he has plenty of form to work on. French-trained horses are often difficult to work out and Milan Tino will have to improve again.

    Ndawwi is the only one who has lost his maiden tag in Britain and Ireland, in the top four of the market. With a two-and-a-half length win, the handicapper has caught on to Gordon Elliott’s antics and has given him a harsh mark.

    Liari heads the English challenge for Paul Nicholls, to land his first Fred Winter since Diego Du Charmil eight years ago. He is the only unbeaten horse in the field after a stunning win in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle. He’s fairly weighted after his last two victories and is one of his best chances at the meeting.

    Verdict:

    Out of the principles, Liari takes the vote. His performances have been emphatic and is one of the best horses in the race. Paul Nicholls has waxed lyrical about the future he has at the yard and can defy a top weight. 11/1 (Unibet, BetUK).

    Each-way picks:

    • Miss Manzor really impressed when impressive breaking her Irish maiden at Fairyhouse after being dropped in the deep end on Boxing Day. 14/1 (General).
    • Nara looks to be a big plot job. Fourth in testing ground and was held up in the rear all the way. She’s got a great chance on the mark given. 16/1 (Unibet).
    • An Bradan Feasa presents the course form after winning in December over C&D. His performance at Musselburgh hoped to get him a lower mark, but the course form looks overpriced. 33/1 (General).

     

    Weatherbys Champion Bumper – 2m 87yds – Grade One

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    This race is a lottery. There Are some genuine live chances, but some that could appear at a big price which makes it open.

    Unbeaten horses occupy the top of the market, including Jalon D’oudairies. He’s been given a big break since his win over Christmas. The win wasn’t monstrous, and the form didn’t exactly back up, but looks to be laid out for the race.

    Jasmin De Vaux was superb in his victory at Naas in January. The form might not have been backed up, but double-figure length victories never go unnoticed. The combination of Munir & Souede and Willie Mullins have been dominant, and we could see a future champion hack up the hill.

    Romeo Coolio came in with a lot of potential, but had to be workmanlike on rules debut, only winning by one-and-a-quarter lengths. Gordon Elliott holds the upper hand with entries, but this could be Cullentra amateur’s Harry Swan’s pick.

    Teeshan has had two incredible victories. He hacked by 43 lengths in a point-to-point and won by seven on testing found at Exeter. Initial findings suggest that he will want the ground testing, but Nicholls says this is as best a chance he’s had in the bumper.

    The Yellow Clay has been bounced around through the various Preview nights recently. He was a bumper horse last year and won two races. He didn’t follow it up, when short of room and didn’t pick up in time, but still holds claims.

    Verdict:

    Jasmin De Vaux was by far the most impressive juvenile and looks to have plenty of pace on board to leave connections with a good feeling for next season. 6/1 (William Hill, 888Sport).

    Each-way picks: Fleur Au Fusil won the Mares Champion Bumper at the DRF. It’s not particularly produced winners, but the last mare to win the race was in 2018. The weight allowance will allow her some chance to be up in the places. 20/1 (General).

    Junta Marvel won the Mares flat race at the Punchestown Festival last year and will be getting her first run of the season in the Champion Bumper. That race provided Brucio who was successful in the Mares Handicap Hurdle at the DRF. Worth a chance at 25/1 (BetUK).

     

    JCB Triumph Hurdle – 2m 179yds – Grade One

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    This has one of the bankers on Friday, if not the week.

    Sir Gino was impressive when winning the trial on trial’s day, when beating Burdett Road by 10 widening lengths. He was keen at Kempton and wasn’t the most fluent over hurdles but kept going with plenty of speed. He sharpened up at could be giving Constitution Hill a run for his money in the future.

    Majborough waited a long time to make his appearance and just laboured towards the end of the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. He kept on and looked the more galloping type for the future, which will suit him on the New Course.

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    Kargese won the Spring Juvenile but wasn’t far behind Kala Conti over Christmas. Willie Mullins has won the race three times out of the last four years. But only two have done the Spring/Triumph double.

    Storm Heart rekindles the relationship between Gigginstown and Willie Mullins and looked to be one of the top hurdlers after a 22-length win on debut. She failed to get past Kargese in the Spring, which holds some strong form.

    Salver for Gary Moore is one of the most experienced juveniles in the field, but will want heavy, if not very soft ground, to hit the frame against a really talented field.

    Verdict:

    Sir Gino makes it no debate. Course and distance form, sharpened up over hurdles and bundles of speed make him the obvious choice and one of the bankers of the week. 8/11 (BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Majborough was highly touted before the season and offered plenty of signs of improvement in the Spring Juvenile. Price has ballooned due to Sir Gino’s presence. 6/1 (General).

    Reverse Forecast: Sir Gino, Majborough 

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus – Mares Races

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus – Mares Races

    Mares’ Races have been a recent edition to the Cheltenham Festival, and there have been some moments that went down in Festival history. Best of Bets takes a look at the Mares Hurdle and Mares Chase.

     

    Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle – 2m 3F 200yds – Grade One

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    The Mares Hurdle was only established in 2008, yet it has given us horses, and races, that will forever be part of the Festival picture. Quevega, Annie Power and last year’s emotional send-off for Honeysuckle. This year, it seems to be one horse on everyone’s lips.

    Lossiemouth was ultra-impressive winning the Unibet Hurdle, formerly the International, on Trials Day at Cheltenham, winning easily on the bridle.

    The former Triumph Hurdle winner had some questions about fitness and the long layoff that day, but soon put the doubts to bed and won cosily.

    She’s been stepped up in distance, presumably to avoid the potential clash between Constitution Hill and State Man.

    Despite this, she looks to have an engine and has plenty of aims in sight after this, including a potential crack at the Champion Hurdle next year.

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    The question is who can finish in behind her? Stablemate Ashroe Diamond was stepped back to two miles at Doncaster beating Under Control and Gala Marceau.

    She may lack course experience, but she is a Grade One winner and deserves to hit the frame at least.

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    Love Envoi hasn’t had the vintage season like last year, but no one could deny her effort in last year’s renewal. The step up in distance will be more beneficial but may fall foul of Lossiemouth’s easy winning style again.

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    Marie’s Rock won this race back in 2022 and has been tried over three miles after that. She won the Warfield Mares’ Hurdle comfortably at Doncaster, but it’s hard to tell which Marie’s Rock will turn up this year.

    Verdict:

    For some, the NAP of the Festival is Lossiemouth. No one can deny her talents and is a potential future Champion Hurdle winner, following in the footsteps of the legend that is Honeysuckle. 1/2 (General).

    Each-way pick: Love Envoi ran a cracker in last year’s race and looked like the winner heading to the last. Whilst her exploits haven’t been great this year, she’s finished second twice. Whilst Lossiemouth runs away with it, Love Envoi should pick up the pieces. 14/1 (BetUK).

     

    Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase – 2m 4F 127yds – Grade Two

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    It’s the fourth renewal of this race and no favourite has won it. But this year looks a little simpler.

    Dinoblue has been one of the best two-milers over in Ireland this season, and to see her come here makes this race look hardly significant.

    There is a question of her stepping up in trip, but look back to her victory over Christmas and you’ll see that she’s got an engine.

    Downed by El Fabiolo last time out, she still finished six lengths ahead of the third, which is still an impressive result.

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    One horse that will relish the trip is Allegorie De Vassy. She came back to her best over two miles beating Rivere D’Etel at Naas.

    The only problem for Allegorie is that the rain will need to come. Three of her victories have come on heavy ground and will want it raining through the week for her to win.

    Limerick Lace is a horse that has gone under the radar. She won all her races over the distance by a combined total of 26 lengths this season.

    She finished second in the Troytown, when she was stepped up in trip and she looks to have been aimed at this race by Cromwell.

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    The Navan trainer, who is top trainer at Cheltenham this season, also has Brides Hill who is also unbeaten this season.

    However, most of her victories have come at Listed level, including her win at Huntingdon earlier this season.

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    One horse that looks overpriced is Riviere D’Etel. Her only victory came against Allegorie De Vassy, beating her by 33 lengths over two-and-a-half miles.

    The intermediate trip will seem to suit and running against the girls also will be a bonus for horse who has been, form-wise, very consistent.

    Verdict:

    Dinoblue is the one to beat. And looking at the rest of the field, it’s a race that she’s taking full advantage of. In my opinion, she should go the Champion Chase and would run a cracking race, even if El Fabiolo won it. Evs (William Hill, 888Sport, BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Limerick Lace looks to have been aimed at this race all season. Gavin Cromwell’s record at Cheltenham has been hard not to notice. A JP McManus reverse forecast for the penultimate race of the week would be a nice touch. 5/1 (William Hill, 888Sport, BetUK).

    Forecast: Dinoblue, Limerick Lace

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus – Novice Chases

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus – Novice Chases

    There’s been some exciting novice chasers all season, and the best of the best will compete at Cheltenham. Best of Bets takes a deep dive into the four novice chases during the week.

     

    MyPensionExpert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase – 1m 7F 199yds – Grade One

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    The shock of the race came on Monday evening was that Marine Nationale was ruled out. Therefore the top two in the market now are the Irish Arkle one-two, Il Etait Temps and Found A Fifty.

    Il Etait Temps was impressive in the race, running on after the last to chin Found A Fifty on the line.

    But it’s worth noting that Il Etait Temps didn’t perform too badly over Christmas over two-and-a-half miles behind Gaelic Warrior.

    Also, the Irish Arkle is a full furlong and 29 yards longer than the Cheltenham equivalent. And Il Etait Temps looked like he needed all of that to beat Found A Fifty.

    The shorter distance will favour the latter and was impressive on both debut and over Christmas. He’s finished in the top two on all chase starts.

    Facile Vega has major doubts about coming to the Festival after two extremely disappointing runs.

    Gaelic Warrior was finally found out going left-handed when falling at the last and jumping at a poor standard. His performance at the Festival last year also found out his weakness.

    As for the British, JPR One looks like the best jumper in the UK but was found out at Sandown in his Grade One test. He only won by half-a-length last time out, so doesn’t hold too much of a threat to the Irish dominated market.

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    Master Chewy is the top rated British horse, but disappointed in the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Lingfield last time out.

    His win in the Wayward Lad was nothing short of impressive and Nickle Back backed the form up by winning the Grade One Scilly Isles’ at Sandown.

    If there’s plenty of pace on, and the ground not too testing, we may see an upset come courtesy of him.

    Verdict:

    I couldn’t see another runner apart from Marine Nationale, but with him out I’m siding with Found A Fifty. He’ll appreciate the lack of distance and will bring some pace in the closing stages. 7/2 (General).

    Each-way pick: Hunters Yarn is the top pick for the double-green of Munir and Souede and annihilated the field when breaking his maiden last time out. He did fall at the last on chasing debut but was five lengths clear of the rest and had the win in the bag. Has a chance, despite being down the pecking order in the Mullins market. 11/2 (General).

    TRICAST: Found A Fifty, Hunters Yarn, Master Chewy

     

    Maureen Mullins National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Novices’ Chase – 3m 5F 201yds – Grade Two

    The slog-fest for the novices is back. We could see a future Gold Cup winner, or maybe the next Grand National winner.

    Embassy Gardens is the current market leader after two impressive wins either side of Christmas. He’s an out and out stayer, evidenced on his hurdles form last season.

    He’s rather unexposed in the field but lacks a key stat that only Stattler bucked in the last ten years. He hasn’t had enough runs.

    An alarming statistic for the race is the only horses to have won the race, despite having less than four runs over fences, were Back In Focus and Stattler, both trained by Willie Mullins.

    He is a talented horse, with two big margin wins over fences, but does he lack the experience over fences?

    Corbetts Cross has only one win over fences, finishing behind Grangeclare West twice and falling after being bumped last time out.

    It speaks volumes that owner JP McManus says that he thinks he can win this race, despite some shortcomings this season.

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    Salvador Ziggy hasn’t been seen since October. On recent form, he’s been running in the Summer season, which means he will need the ground bone dry.

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    Meetingofthewaters has been impressing in handicap chases, barring his last run when unseating at the first. For him, it’s a tossup between the Ultima and here.

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    Nick Rockett has fallen victim by Corbetts Cross and, unusually, American Mike when he stepped up to three miles last time out. He’s been stepping up in distance with each run, so there won’t be a worry about the trip.

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    Leading the UK challenge is Broadway Boy, who was beat by Flooring Porter at Cheltenham in October but hasn’t followed up since.

    Since then, the extended three-mile trips around Cheltenham have him suited down to the ground and wasn’t expected to perform when going to Warwick.

    Verdict:

    I’m taking on the favourite, just like I did last year. Hopefully Corbetts Cross won’t fall at the last like Mahler Mission did and beats Embassy Gardens, but it won’t be by far. 5/2 (General).

    Each-way pick: Broadway Boy has a big liking for the course and the further he goes, the happier he is. Surprised he isn’t shorter, but double figures is a steal. 10/1 (Boylesports, BetUK).

     

    Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – 3m 80yds – Grade One

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    This looks like a match race between two of the heavyweight trainers, but is it just a simple as that?

    Willie Mullins confirmed that Fact To File was to run here, which caught everyone’s attention. And there’s little question as to why he won’t win.

    He stayed every yard of his last two races over an extended two mile five furlong races. Some would say that he’d be better going to the Turners, but Mark Walsh hardly touched him when trouncing Gaelic Warrior.

    He’ll suit the step up in trip, rather than the step down. And American Mike has gone on to win since, over further, which gives him a little extra boost. He’s also another JP horse that hold the only entry for the owner.

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    Stay Away Fay was largely touted to beat his more experienced individuals in the Cotswold Chase. However, he got put to bed by Capodanno.

    That’s not to say he’s easily the best British novice chaser coming into the Festival, and can build on his Albert Bartlett win.

    His only blip came when fourth behind Apple Away at Aintree. He is one of Nicholls’ top hopes for the meeting.

    Monty’s Star pulled up in last year’s Albert Bartlett, but impressed on his second start over fences, overturning a loss to Three Card Brag winning by five-and-a-half lengths. However, he’s not at the level of the top two in the market.

    Grey Dawning might be shorter for the Turner’s, but a ultra-impressive victory at Warwick threw up the big possibility of him coming here.

    He seemed to like the sharp, left-handed track of Warwick, which should suit him on the Old Course.

    He was beaten by Ginny’s Destiny in November and holds some decent claims here, but not as much as the top two.

    Verdict:

    It’s a match between the top two and the verdict goes to Fact To File. Stay Away Fay is the best of the British, but Fact To File looks to be best of the lot and should have a nice future for Mullins and co. 5/6 (BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Plenty on offer, but Sandor Clegane ran a cracker of a race to finish third in the Albert Bartlett last year. He held his own when finishing second in his last two races, particularly behind Embassy Gardens. 20/1 (BetUK, BetGoodwin).

     

    Turners’ Novices’ Chase – 2m 3F 168yds – Grade One

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    It’s safe to say that we could see a carbon copy repeat of last year’s race. A Paul Nichols horse, campaigned at Cheltenham over C&D, winning a novice handicap off top weight on Trials Day.

    Ginny’s Destiny is one of Nicholls’ leading claims at the Festival, campaigned the same way Stage Star was.

    It may be worth noting that his bigger margin wins came on the old course. This race on the new course.

    But that’s clutching at straws and presents big leading claims.

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    Grey Dawning was downed by three-quarters of a length in December over C&D and Dan Skelton has to decide which race will suit him better.

    He has a realistic chance of winning this race after impressing over the intermediate trip. But he’s equally the same on sharp tracks over three miles. He’s shorter for this race which can provide clues, but not answers.

    Gaelic Warrior will likely come here, but as mentioned before left-handedness is his Achilles’ Heel and will be the lay of the week wherever he turns up.

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    Iroko was my first antepost pick way way back in November. But then he suffered an injury that was thought to rule him out for the season.

    But Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerrerio have nursed him back to health and he seems to be 100% fit.

    It’s a big risk to race him without giving him a prep run, but he’s unbeaten at the Festival after winning the Martin Pipe last year. The new course and distance will suit him to the ground.

    Apart from Gaelic Warrior, it looks like a lottery to find the next Irish runner. So, we could end up with another short-stacked field.

    Verdict:

    As much as I like Ginny’s Destiny, Iroko knows that Festival feeling. His win sent a statement to the rest of the division. They thought they got away with it after his injury announcement. The form from Warwick might not have worked out, but his performance was striking. Plenty of value for a talented horse. 11/2 (Unibet, BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Has anyone noticed this is the only entry American Mike holds? He has three options and is worth a punt on NRNB. He either is supplemented for one of the two staying races, come here or miss the Festival. Considering this is his only entry and is a double-figure price, Gordon Elliott may have played the bookies silly. 16/1 NRNB (BetUK).

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus – Novice Hurdles

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus – Novice Hurdles

    The countdown is on for the Greatest Festival on Turf. The Cheltenham Festival is back and so is the Festival Focus. In the first of the eight-part series, we take a deep dive into the contenders for the four novice hurdles. Often competitive, and a look as to who the future champions of the Festival will be.

     

    Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – 2m 87yds – Grade One

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    The curtain-raiser for the entire week. This year’s renewal looks to belong the Irish, but who will land the first prize out of 28?

    Ballyburn’s destination still hasn’t been decided on, but his run in the Tattersalls Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival looked to be the perfect trial for the Supreme.

    However, in the two races he has won, the form hasn’t worked out and the class performances is all we have seen. So is he as a good horse that the market makes out?

    The race is a potential reunion with Firefox, who beat Ballyburn in a competitive maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse in December.

    Firefox was stepped up by Gordon Elliott in January when running in the Lawlor’s of Naas, but was found out by Readin Tommy Wrong.

    The step down in distance looks to be the plan for Elliott and team. His bumper form also has a lot to back up Firefox’s talent. It might just be he didn’t stay the trip in the Lawlor’s.

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    Tullyhill is the only one in the top three of the market not to have won a Grade One race, only finishing second in last year’s Champion Bumper.

    He won a Listed contest at Punchestown in testing conditions but has both of his hurdle runs well to put him in the frame for the race, but conditions need to be testing for him to hold a big chance.

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    Jeriko Du Reponet represents the UK’s leading chances in the race.

    He won the Rossington Main at Doncaster and had the form of the race franked when Lump Sum went and won the Dovecote at Cheltenham.

    Nicky Henderson is only one of two British trainers to win the race in the last ten years, and he’s won it three times too.

    Verdict:

    IF Ballyburn turns up in the Supreme, he holds every credential to win and win well, with a big boost winning at the DRF to make him the one to beat. 5/4 (Unibet, BetUK). If not, Jeriko Du Reponet wasn’t up to his standard at Doncaster, but still won well and the form was backed up by Lump Sum too. 13/2 (Unibet).

    Each-way pick: Mistergif is one horse that has not been picked up by anyone yet after a monstrous maiden hurdle win at Limerick back in January. That 18-length win gave him an entry into the race and is, possibly, the number one runner for owners Munir and Souede. Willie Mullins also said on his stable tour he “screams a real good horse to me” 22/1 (Unibet), is very generous for an emphatic win.

     

    Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle – 2m 5F – Grade One

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    Once again, it’s a case of does Ballyburn come here. Playing Mullins bingo is not for the faint-hearted.

    Having won by 25 lengths over the distance, he’s potential to stay. But the run at the DRF tells me he’ll go for Tuesday’s opener.

    Slade Steel was seven lengths behind Ballyburn at the DRF but was stepping down in distance that day and looked more comfortable over the extended trip.

    He’ll want the ground testing on the day. But he’s never shone in the two wins he’s had this season.

    His only win was the Grade Two at Navan by three-quarters of a length, which shows he has a fighting spirit. But you need a lot more when coming to Cheltenham.

    It’s a similar case for Ile Atlantique, who was talked about when winning by 19 lengths at Gowran on debut. He was rightly stepped up in trip when competing in the Lawlor’s.

    Leading after the last, he was denied by Readin Tommy Wrong, but was more impressive on the eye than his opponent.

    With narrow finishes behind Firefox and Slade Steel running in bumpers, it tells us that the winning margin may not be more than a length.

    Mystical Power looks to be coming here, avoiding clashing with Jeriko Du Reponet in the Supreme.

    It’s an odd choice for a horse who won the Moscow Flyer in ‘Supreme-style’ and looks like two-miles is made for him.

    But Impaire Et Passe won this race last year and went on to win this race too, so it’s a tried and tested route for top level Mullins novices.

    Readin Tommy Wrong seems to be underestimated. He looked to be going away from Ile Atlantique and the extra furlong will suit him rather than his stablemate.

    He carries an unbeaten record and has plenty of good form from his maiden race including Lisnagar Fortune and Staffordshire Knot finishing in behind.

    With a Grade One under his belt, he has every chance to go and notch up another in a competitive field.

    Verdict:

    This could be a repeat of last year with Mystical Power stepping up in distance after winning the Moscow Flyer. Hopefully he doesn’t take after his mother and nosedives at the last. 3/1 (General).

    Each-way pick: With all the leading contenders Irish, the best shot for the UK is Gidleigh Park. But I’m siding with Handstands for Ben Pauling. He won the Listed Sidney Bank’s at Huntingdon, beating a much-fancied Jango Baie. He’s got some engine having been a point-to-point winner over three miles and despite looking low rated, does have some quality about him. 12/1 (General).

     

    Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – 2m 179yds – Grade Two

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    No favourite has won this race since Laurina in 2018. Last year, You Wear It Well won at 16/1 so may we have to look past the three ante-post favourite to find the winner?

    Brighterdaysahead has already been identified by Jack Kennedy as his banker for the week. And it doesn’t take a genius to figure out why.

    Unbeaten in all five starts, two double figure winning distances and a Grade Three win to match, the stars seem to align for this fantastic mare for Gordon Elliott.

    Her ground preference may be to the softer side, but such as the talent she possesses she won’t mind whatsoever.

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    But then Jade De Grugy threw her hat into the ring. A possible Honeysuckle reincarnate in the colours of Kenny Alexander but trained by Mullins.

    She was projected into the fray after an explosive 15 length win over Christmas, then backed it up in the Solerina.

    She’s only had two hurdle races under her belt, which may leave her a little undercooked. But her talent only suggests she won’t stop improving.

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    It’s not often Fergal O’Brien has a live hope for the Festival, but this year he has two genuine contenders to deliver him an elusive win at his local track.

    Dysart Enos has a similar record to Brighterdaysahead but lacks the Graded form.

    She’s been constantly impressive, including winning a novice hurdle over C&D in December. But form is lacking in some areas which puts her impressive wins into question.

    Verdict:

    Despite C&D form, Dysart Enos may just fall behind the talent that is Brighterdaysahead. And as her name suggests, there are bigger prizes to be won with her. 2/1 (BetVictor, BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Majestic Force was majestic when winning on debut at Punchestown. After her mistake at the second-last, she responded to all of Rachael Blackmore’s urges and beat odds-on shot Dr Eggman by four-and-a-half lengths. She will be stepping down in distance, but a galloping track will suit her big engine. Certainly, one to keep an eye out for in the future if she enters the fray. Continuing the big price form of the race at 33/1 (Unibet, BetUK).

     

    Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – 2m 7F 213yds – Grade One

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    One of the tougher novice hurdles to work out, producing nine double-figure priced winners in the last ten renewals. When betting in the race it’s best to go digging.

    Mullins occupies the first three in the betting, but withdraw Readin Tommy Wrong. He should go to the Baring Bingham as mentioned.

    High Class Hero is unbeaten, but really by the skin of his teeth. Chinks have begun to show in his armour, particularly at the last where he’s never had a comfortable jump. He’ll have to sharpen up if he wants to win this ultra-competitive race.

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    Dancing City’s win was more about the talent of the jockey on the day. Danny Mullins knew how to ride the race, leading then giving Dancing City someone to chase in the final strides. But short prices mean nothing in the Albert Bartlett.

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    Gidleigh Park managed to pull his last victory out of the fire, after a less than convincing performance around Cheltenham. He showed plenty of class to stay on and win. He may have to bring that spirit into this race too.

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    Captain Teague’s hype dipped when losing at Cheltenham in November but made up for it by winning the Challow. He steps up in distance too and has only placed at Cheltenham on previous runs.

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    Shanagh Bob is, surprisingly, the form runner of the race. He shocked Nicky Henderson when winning in December over C&D. Two horses have won since including Kerryhill who won the River Don at Doncaster on his next start.

    Verdict:

    Of the front runners, Shanagh Bob is the pick. The form took a massive boost in recent weeks, and he’s been race aimed by Henderson after his victory over C&D in December. Very underestimated at 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet, BetUK).

    Each-way pick: If it’s possible to have two, it would be Largy Hill and Croke Park. Largy Hill has already showed his class over three miles when breaking his maiden by two-and-three-quarter lengths. Then picked up a Grade Three against the highly touted Staffordshire Knot. 25/1 (Unibet).

    Croke Park has been crying out for three miles since breaking his maiden over two-and-a-half miles back in November. It looked the wrong decision to run him in the Lawlor’s, but the form from that race earlier in the season could work out. Elliott has said this horse wants three miles and he can prove it. 25/1 (Unibet, BetUK).

  • Morebattle Hurdle Day | Control Personal Ambition

    Morebattle Hurdle Day | Control Personal Ambition

    Lump Sum and Bowtogreatness made last weekend a good one at Kempton ahead of this week’s Morebattle Hurdle Day at Kelso.

    Action also comes from Newbury as well on Saturday, giving a nice undercard to the main event of the Cheltenham festival in just over a week.

    Let’s dive in.

     

    1:55 Newbury – Heltenham @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Heltenham was slightly unlucky not to get his head in front at Kempton last weekend, so you can see why the Dan Skelton yard wants to send him out while he is in good form.

    The seven-year-old has plenty of ability, which is apparent based on his demolition job over course and distance in March 2023, and soft ground is something he loves.

    By Masked Marvel, he was surprisingly weak in the betting seven days ago and looked slightly awkward for much of the contest, but he ran well without winning.

    There’s also an argument to suggest that race was a strong piece of form as Golden Son has shown talent – notably when second to Iroko on UK chase debut – and Champagne Mystery is a Grade 3-placed chaser in France.

    Back to a winning course and back left-handed should see him go well today for an operation in average form.

     

    2:17 Kelso – Personal Ambition @ 3/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    A few people may know from my X profile that I have a small love for Personal Ambition, so it would be remiss of me not to fancy him to win the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle.

    Bar his disappointing effort at Sandown two starts ago, the five-year-old has impressed both me, trainer Ben Pauling, and jockey Kielan Woods, notably when dotting up at Doncaster on his latest start.

    He showed a serious turn of foot to pick up after the last in what was, admittedly, a weak contest.

    Jango Baie is no easy task at the head of affairs, but Personal Ambition doesn’t have a Grade 1 penalty to shoulder, so I’d chance him to get the better of Henderson’s contender here.

     

    2:25 Newbury – Toonagh Warrior @ 4/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Looking at the third race at Newbury, a two-mile novices’ handicap hurdle, Toonagh Warrior is a horse who looks well-handicapped based on this season’s form.

    Starting with the Newbury ground, we are expecting heavy conditions, something that should suit Stuart Edmunds’ six-year-old on pedigree.

    By Well Chosen, the same sire as Willie Mullins’ soft ground-winning Carefully Selected and Gordon Elliott’s heavy ground-winning Jury Duty, his damsire, Kris Kin, produced plenty of horses who liked soft ground, so we have no issues here.

    Furthermore, he won a novice hurdle on soft ground comfortably which would provide plenty of promise.

    As for his form, his penultimate run at Ascot is interesting as he gave five pounds away to the then 104-rated Titan Discovery when just beaten by a head; the winner is now rated 121 and won off 115 in a Sandown handicap last month.

    Also, Ben Pauling’s Bad was in third, who has since finished a close second in a valuable Ascot handicap, and King William Rufus was 13 lengths behind in fifth who has some form with Jeriko Du Reponet.

    If you ignore his last run, which was his first test over two-and-a-half miles, he should have a great chance at bouncing back now over two miles.

     

    2:50 Kelso – Under Control @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Nicky Henderson is lining up the Kelso to Cheltenham bonus with Under Control, and it seems he has a good horse to try it with in this year’s Morebattle.

    Henderson made no secret that the Gerry Feilden was the big early-season target for this five-year-old, a race he has previously used for top mares like Epatante, Floressa, and Theatre Glory.

    Like Theatre Glory, it didn’t work for him this year, but a wind issue was discovered afterwards and that seemed to do the trick as she ran a corked behind Ashroe Diamond at Doncaster last time out.

    The third, Gala Marceau, is a good mare based on her Lossiemouth form from last season despite failing to land a blow in her subsequent race in the Grade 3 Quevega Mares Hurdle.

    However, the fifth, Stainsby Girl, won comfortably at Haydock on her next start, so the substance of form to that Doncaster race is strong.

    As Kelso has missed most of the rain this week, the ground will be up her street and a mark of 138 looks lenient based on her form with Iberico Lord and the aforementioned mares.

     

    4:05 Newbury – Charles Ritz @ 11/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    With the number of runners and the shape of the race, Charles Ritz could either take a massive step forward at Newbury on Saturday or hate this new step up in trip.

    The eight-year-old by Milan should suit three miles well as his dam, Miss Ballantyne, won on her final career start over three miles, and he has raced as if the step up in distance would benefit him.

    Trained by Tom George, his career so far hasn’t been easy as it took him 371 days to race in a novice hurdle after his second in a Wadebridge point-to-point and then he had another year off after his second novice hurdle start.

    Speaking of that novice hurdle, he finished fifth at Ascot over 2m5f while giving weight away to the likes of Complete Unknown and Galia Des Liteaux, and he finished half-a-length behind Monbeg Genuis.

    As a chaser, he was a snug winner at Exeter off 118 and George even tried to send him into a hot novices’ handicap chase at Prestbury Park that he didn’t really enjoy.

    Back at a different track, he should go well.

  • Four To Follow: Kracking Kelso

    Four To Follow: Kracking Kelso

    On what seems to be a quiet, almost normal, Saturday, there’s plenty of competitive action up in the Scottish Borders. All eyes are on Kelso for some good, clean fun with no Cheltenham chat in sight. Plus Newbury hosts the Greatwood Gold Cup alongside.

     

    Kelso

    Nice To See You, To See You…

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    2:17 – Premier Novice’s Hurdle (Grade Two) – Brucio @ 6/1 (BetVictor)

    Stuart Crawford and Scottish racing go almost hand in hand. He’s second in the trainers’ championship at Ayr. When he sends one over, particularly in the double green colours, it’s one to keep an eye on. Brucio won a rather average maiden hurdle at Catterick before winning at the DRF in the Listed Mares handicap hurdle by six lengths. With Jango Baie carrying a penalty, and Brucio with an allowance, the balance suggests that Brucio is top rated, and her price should be taken advantage of.

    With Nicky Henderson’s horses not firing as well as they should be, Personal Ambition looks a more worthy favourite for Ben Pauling. Heavy ground defeated him at Sandown in his last Graded race but beating Jingko Blue in his debut over hurdles as paid dividends. He is shorter than Brucio but carries more value than the fav. 4/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Salsa, Shimmy and Shake

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    2:50 – Morebattle Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Salsada @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Salsada comes into this race of a 315 day break. She’s wanted to run three times this season already but has been withdrawn for a number of reasons. She was last seen finishing fifth in the Scottish Champion Hurdle won by Rubaud who has franked the form to some extent this season. Her run before that saw her finishing second to Epatante, so she’s a good horse in her own right. She comes in on a four-pound lower mark which makes her an appealing wight for the race.

    Anyharminasking holds an entry for the County Hurdle and is looking for the £100,000 bonus of winning the Morebattle and, maybe, the County. Jonjo O’Neill has had an up and down time with him this season, but his rating of 136 did put him second at Newbury. It’s clear from the last couple of runs that two-and-a-half miles hasn’t suited so well, but the drop back should be better in order to prep for the big handicap a week on Friday. 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    Bass Rock has been chasing for a while and Sandy Thomson has elected to drop him back to hurdles. Which has left him subject to a massive gamble. He was last seen over hurdles at Ayr in 2022 when winning over further. The handicapper has taken his chasing form into account and has dropped him three pounds. This makes little to no sense and is a perfect opportunity for Bass Rock. 25/1 (Boylesports).

     

    Sometimes, The Old Ones Are The Best

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    3:25 – Premier Chase (Listed) – Aye Right @ 3/1 (General)

    Aye Right is one tough old horse. Monbeg Genius is being prepped for the National, but it’s likely he should get in off a mark of 147. It looks more logical for Aye Right. This race is his Gold Cup. He’s had a superb, yet unlucky season, with two seconds and a third. There’s no stopping his tenacity and will have been prepped to be in the form of his life for today.

     

    Newbury

    Give It Some Gust

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    1:55 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Chase (Premier Handicap) – Gustavian @ 12/1 (General)

    The ground at Newbury is bottomless. Friday’s last race was almost won by a furlong by a horse who relishes heavy ground. Therefore, the handicap element disappears and heavy ground horses are to be hammered. Gustavian has by far and away the best record on the ground. He’s also handicapped incredibly well after unseating at the second. So long as he doesn’t do that again, he’ll be bang up there.

    Grandeur D’Ame is a much shorter price and seemed to be having a good season before unseating at the first on Trials Day at Cheltenham. He’s versatile on all sorts of ground, including heavy which he’s won on this season. He remains on a ridiculous rating after being dropped three pounds for finishing fourth in a big handicap at Cheltenham. 4/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, BetUK).

    The very best of luck!

  • Coral Trophy Handicap Chase Day | Greatness awaits for Pauling

    Coral Trophy Handicap Chase Day | Greatness awaits for Pauling

    The run-in towards the Cheltenham Festival continues to shorten and shorten as the days pass, and one marker on the road to Prestbury Park is Coral Trophy Handicap Chase Day at Kempton.

    Once known as the Racing Post Trophy, the £150,000 contest highlights a good day of action from the Middlesex-based track which also includes the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase, and Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle.

    With a few bets in mind, let’s get started.

     

    1:15 Kempton – Joker De Mai @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Harry Derham could take it to the ‘Max’ on Saturday at Kempton thanks to a number of interesting runners, though the one I’m siding with is Joker De Mai in the opener for owner-jockey David Maxwell.

    Backing a Maxwell-ridden horse does require some bravery, but that is usually taken into the price and this progressive five-year-old can continue his rise through the ranks.

    Formerly in France, the Balko gelding has plenty of experience on his side and he even won two chase contests before his move over to the UK. My French form knowledge isn’t amazing, but the horse he beat on his final start – Jardin D’Arthel – beat Excello (now rated 144 and with Nicky Henderson) on his next start before a fair fifth in the Grade 1 Prix Ferdinand Dufaure.

    As for Joker De Mai, he beat Awaythelad, a horse who has won twice since, on his second start in the UK and both the fourth, I’d Like To Know, and the fifth, Naturally High, have gone some way to frank the form.

    Although he failed to win last time out, that race came just 10 days after his Lingfield win and that potentially showed with the way he finished his race.

    With a 65-day break on his side, I’m hoping for a much better outing off a mark of 128.

     

    1:58 Chepstow – Zambezi Fix @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Zambezi Fix has been a joy to watch this season for Bernard Llewellyn; this isn’t pocket talk, though his success at Chepstow two starts ago has contributed to this opinion slightly.

    Connections have mixed between hurdles and fences with their nine-year-old and off a hurdles mark of 120, he returns to the smaller obstacles this weekend.

    Over fences, he has tended to jump cautiously – something which potentially lost him the race last time out – but he is a fairly solid jumper over hurdles.

    His form over sticks is pretty good as he was third to JPR One at Taunton in March 2023, though it’s his form around Chepstow that shines the brightest.

    From 12 runs at the track, he has placed four times behind the likes of Funambule Sivola and Le Cameleon, and he has won twice.

    Soft ground is no problem to him and in what is a winnable contest, he should go close this weekend.

     

    3:00 Sandown – Lump Sum @ 6/4 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Visually, Lump Sum is a horse that has pleased me so far this season and Saturday could see him collect his first piece of graded silverware.

    In his formbook, the first race people will look at is his effort behind Jeriko Du Reponet at Doncaster in the Grade 2 Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle.

    I’ll be the first to admit that my liking for Jeriko Du Reponet isn’t a strong one, but he made up plenty of ground on a potential Grade 1 horse from the rear which can’t be ignored.

    Prior to that, he beat Onethreefivenotout, a subsequent maiden hurdle winner, at Wincanton on heavy ground while giving seven pounds away.

    Looking even further back, he tried to give The Doyen Chief, two-time novice hurdle winner, seven pounds in a Hereford bumper and ran with credit.

    If he continues his progress on Saturday, he should be the one to beat and his price of 6/4 is fair.

     

    3:37 Kempton – Bowtogreatness @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    All season, I have waited eagerly to see Bowtogreatness in a three-mile handicap chase with race fitness on his side, and finally, the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase is where we get to see this happen.

    Having suffered a setback in the first few months of the season, his opening run of the campaign blew the cobwebs off and his second run was over a trip shorter than ideal.

    Thanks to these two performances, the handicapper has dropped the eight-year-old by two pounds in the handicap to a mark of 133, just one pound above the mark he was on when second in the valuable William Hill Handicap Chase at Aintree.

    Ben Pauling has always rated this horse in high regard, and three miles around the flat nature of Kempton should suit as he doesn’t lack speed.

    Interestingly, although he has won on heavy and soft over hurdles, Pauling has pulled him out of races due to soft ground in the past.

    This is a small worry as the track is officially soft, but Kempton is unlikely to receive any more rain before racing. Furthermore, the Westerner blood on his sire’s side, and the family on his dam’s side, suggests soft ground should cause no issues.