Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Four To Follow: Last Chance Saloon

    Four To Follow: Last Chance Saloon

    With three weeks to go until the Cheltenham Festival, some are running out of time to find an appropriate prep race. But Kempton could provide a last chance with three Grade Two races and a big-money handicap too. Plus, we look ahead to the Grand National with the Eider Chase and the Winter Derby moves up to Southwell from Lingfield, to complete this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Kempton

    Patron Pay Day

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:27 – Pendil Novice’s Chase (Grade Two) – Le Patron @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The Scilly Isles’ was his first no-show of the season, but it’s clear that he wasn’t suited by the front-running tactics of Nickle Back. Because of that, his jumping display was quite poor. With no identified pace in the field, it should be back to normal for Le Patron, who is a two-time winner at this level and will feel at home going right-handed at Kempton. Even with a five-pound penalty, he’s still the best rated horse and should be taken seriously.

     

    The Wizard Of Odds

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:37 – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier) – Blackjack Magic @ 13/2 (Boylesports)

    There’s a key bit of form for this race which comes from November. The Ascot Silver Cup’s top four horses have all won since. Two feature in this race today, including Blackjack Magic. He hasn’t set the world alight since winning the Badger Beers at Wincanton, but he’s handicapped back to a nice mark of 138. This was the same mark he was back in November, when making a mistake at the last when running a cracker. He as every chance of running another again.

    Unanswered Prayers doesn’t look the most attractive on recent form. A fall and an unseat, bookended by two fifths don’t’ make it for good reading. However, he ran a big race when battling for second at the last fence with Grand National Trial winner Yeah Man. His form for the next race at Ascot also holds up too. He’s off the same mark for the Sodexo Gold Cup and can run a massive race at a massive price, 25/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Newcastle

    Duck For Cover

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:08 – Eider Handicap Chase – Fenland Tiger @ 6/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Fun fact: and Eider is a duck. But today is about the Tiger. Everyone may be looking towards Anglers Crag, but the handicapper has had a field day raising him a massive 11lbs after a hattrick of wins. That will be hard to overcome, when he’s stepping up in class too.

    Fenland Tiger can take advantage of that massive rise in the weights, and the heavy ground up at Gosforth Park. He’s likes extreme distances, winning over three-and-a-quarter miles at Doncaster at the start of the year. He faces another rise of seven pounds, but with the ground as it is he has to be favoured a little too big of a price.

    Tommie Beau is another who can take advantage of the boggy conditions. He’s won two ‘Nationals’ already (Durham and Southern) and second in the Sussex National too. Heavy ground + extreme distance suits him to a tee and the mark he’s been given won’t trouble him. Nice even price at 8/1 (General).

    One rain lover at a bigger price is Rath An Iuir. Despite making a big jump from class four to class two, he ran in last year’s Eider and is on a three-pound lower mark this time around. Heavy ground helped him in his win at Kelso over the Festive period and sneaks in at the bottom end of the weights. Each-way claims at 12/1 (General).

     

    Southwell

    A Last Hurrah?

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:20 – BetUK Winter Derby Stakes (Group Three) – Lord North @ 13/8 (General)

    Lord North has been a world class horse, but we haven’t seen him since he won the Dubai Turf at the World Cup Festival last year. It’s clear that John & Thady Gosden want him to come here, before one last big international plunder. He’s 11lbs clear of the rest on level weights, and it makes little to no sense why he’s odds-against.

    The very best of luck!

  • Grand National 2024 | Vanillier installed as new 12/1 favourite

    Grand National 2024 | Vanillier installed as new 12/1 favourite

    Vanillier being installed as favourite for the 2024 Randox Grand National came as something of a surprise.

    As the weights were announced during a lavish lunch in Liverpool on Tuesday, Gavin Cromwell’s 9yo was given a healthy 9lb swing advantage over defending champ Corach Rambler.

    Vanillier (10st8lbs) will weigh lighter than his adversary (11st3lbs), whom he finished runner-up to last year.

    Rated 151 to Rambler’s 159, the differential has done enough to convince bookmakers and with good reason, currently hovering around 12/1.

    Following the in-form Cromwell only this past weekend picking up a National Trial win with Yeah Man, could glory now beckon for Vanillier?

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    Huge antepost

    The idea of Vanillier being slashed in the markets is far from alien.

    Indeed, in last year’s contest, shrewd market operators who backed the gelding early doors were rewarded after seeing his 100/1 SP tumble.

    A benefactor of the weights allowance – much like on Tuesday – Vanillier dropped to 40s, before going off at 25/1 some 10 months ago.

    However, his big-price SPs are for a reason, with victory in the 2021 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle one of just two wins in almost three years.

    Even so, a second Grade 1 win should not be a huge shock.

     

    Following up

    So the task for Vanillier is to go one step further than last year, a tall but not impossible task.

    In recent years, the weights for the National have not been decisive but Tuesday’s news is big for Cromwell’s stable.

    Just ask Corach Rambler.

    At the same time last year, after a weight allowance before his own Ultima win at Cheltenham just weeks later, the Lucinda Russell-trained gelding was the clear pick, albeit in hindsight.

    Intriguingly, Rambler was 9yo when he won; the same age as Vanillier will be.

    We can also look to another bridesmaid in the race for other recent potential pointers.

    Any Second Now was third to Rachael Blackmore and Minella Times in 2021.

    Twelve months on, the same horse was edged out by the sensation that was Noble Yeats.

    Mark Walsh’s third crack in 2023 was however, less successful, having seen his mount pulled up.

    One final note of even greater irony, it was Walsh who rode Vanillier to Cheltenham glory in 2021.

     

    Betting

    Vanillier and Corach Rambler head the markets, but the latter’s extra carry may now hamper.

    The chances of just a second back-to-back National winner since Red Rum therefore, look doubtful.

    So, as it stands what other early fancies might punters look at in the antepost?

    There are just seven British-trained entries in the top 34.

    Embed from Getty Images

    One of a number of other prominent punts is runaway Welsh Grand National winner Nassalam, a decent shout at 28/1 with BetUK for Gary Moore.

    Meanwhile, Hewick should be straight on the watchlist.

    Despite the King George VI winner’s 11st2lbs off a rating of 169, Hewick will stay until the bitter end.

    Cheltenham pending, JJ Hanlon’s gelding must be a consideration at 40/1 with Unibet.

    As usual, keep your eyes peeled with BestofBets extensive race coverage as April approaches.

     

    The 2024 Randox Grand National takes place at Aintree on Saturday 13 April, tape up at approx. 16:00 GMT.

  • Grand National Trial Day | Soaring to Glory at Ascot

    Grand National Trial Day | Soaring to Glory at Ascot

    Last week marked a good day for the Bestofbets.com column ahead of Grand National Trial Day this weekend.

    Emitom obliged at 9/2 and Our Champ grabbed a place with William Hill at 33/1, though the day could have been better if Hometown Boy continued his good progress in the penultimate contest at Newbury.

    Both Ascot and Haydock look interesting on Saturday, so let’s dig in.

     

    1:37 Haydock – Zhiguli @ 7/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Six runners, heavy ground, and a lack of pace look like ideal conditions for Zhiguli to return to the winners’ enclosure at Haydock.

    Trained by Gary Moore, who is running at a 24% strike rate, the nine-year-old is down to a mark of 124 which is two pounds below his last winner mark (March 2023).

    The man of the moment, Caolin Quinn, is also in the saddle to steal a further three pounds, so there’s no excuse for his handicap mark today.

    On paper, it looks as if he and Top Ville Ben are the only horses who like to run from the front, though the latter has failed to win on his last 12 attempts and his age of 12 would carry a small weight of negativity.

    With the first-time cheekpieces applied to keep him focused after his slightly sluggish start in a match race against Quel Destin in early December, the heavy ground should offer no problems considering he won on Lingfield heavy in January 2022 and he is one of my stronger fancies of the day.

     

    1:50 Ascot – Kilbeg King @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    I’ve always had a soft spot for Anthony Honeyball’s Kilbeg King, and today he tries his hand in a winnable Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase.

    Based on novice hurdle form, Apple Away is the one with the best form, but Kilbeg King travelled eye-catchingly well in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase on Boxing Day before seeing out his run well.

    Il Est Francais set a strong pace alongside Hermes Allen, so Sam Twiston-Davies was able to sit in behind and make his move around the home turn at Kempton.

    Unfortunately, he ran into two very smart ones that day, but there’s a potential that both Brave Kingdom and Apple Away could do something similar to Il Est Francais and Hermes Allen as both like to run from the front.

    If that is the case, the race could set up nicely for this improving nine-year-old and the fact he is racing here and not in the Swinley Handicap Chase (that he received an entry for) or next week’s Coral Trophy Handicap Chase is interesting.

     

    2:05 Wincanton – Colonel Mustard @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    The swing in weights between Rubaud and Colonel Mustard from their last meeting at Ayr is 17lbs, a key piece of information that makes me want to side with Colonel Mustard in the Kingwell Hurdle.

    The nine-year-old’s stint over fences wasn’t a fruitful one, so today’s return to hurdles is appreciated and the horse has had sufficient time – 78 days – between runs to hopefully allow a nice reintroduction to the smaller obstacles.

    Trainer Mrs Lorna Fowler told the Racing Post that they have had the Kingwell Hurdle “earmarked since before Christmas” and that the Champion Hurdle is next on the radar if all goes well today.

    If you ignore his last two runs, both of which were over a trip that is probably too far for him, his form when third to State Man in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Champion Hurdle at Punchestown, second in the 2023 Morebattle Hurdle (while giving weight away to recent Betfair Hurdle runner-up L’Eau Du Sud), and third to State Man in the 2022 County Hurdle is the best in this race.

    He handles soft conditions – he even skipped last year’s Betfair Hurdle due to quick ground – and today could see him put in a nice round at Wincanton.

     

    2:25 Ascot – Soaring Glory @ 18/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    In what is an open-looking £50,000 handicap hurdle at Ascot, I’m taking a chance on Soaring Glory at the prices.

    He is on an 11-race losing streak but as such has dropped 17 pounds in the handicap to a workable mark of 132.

    With a course form record of 1231, one of which was a success in the 2021 Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle, the test of Ascot suits and better ground is also on the preferred list.

    A rekindling of form is required, but he is still relatively unexposed at the two-and-a-half-mile trip having finished third at Aintree in May behind Boombawn, who had form with Teddy Blue and Knappers Hill as a novice hurdler, and Hang In There, who has improved 13lbs over fences since the run.

    Today could be the day to catch Soaring Glory, especially due to the form of the Jonjo O’Neill yard (32% strike rate).

     

    3:15 Haydock – Full Back @ 18/1 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    On his first run back for 434 days, Full Back put in a pleasing performance during the Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield before his fall at the fifth-last.

    Priced at 100/1, he was unlikely to win especially because of the long lay-off, but he jumped consistently well until the fall – the tumble itself was not due to technique, he just got in too tight and failed to put out the proper landing gear.

    The nine-year-old returns to handicap company today for the Grand National Trial off a mark that is two pounds below his last winning effort in a fair race on soft ground at Cheltenham over 3m2f – this race is his only handicap chase contest to date on soft ground.

    Although the horse has been a non-runner on soft ground before, his Authorized half-sister, the Willie Mullins-trained Implicit, won her maiden hurdle on heavy ground and the dam, Quatre Bleue, won once on very soft as well as once on soft during her racing career.

    He also has form as a novice chaser on soft ground – notably his success in January 2021 in deplorable conditions at Exeter – so there’s no reason to suggest he will hate this ground.

    If he handles the conditions, his handicap mark will allow him to go well today.

  • Four To Follow: Pic-ture That

    Four To Follow: Pic-ture That

    It’s the final Grade One before the Cheltenham Festival, the Ascot Chase, with one horse in particular looking to make a big impression on the Gold Cup market. There’s also the intriguing Swinley Chase and Grand National Trial up at Haydock. Plus, the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton to make up this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Ascot

    Victtori’s In The Bag

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Injured Jockeys Fund Ambassadors Programme Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier) – Victtorino @ 100/30 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    So far Victtorino is two for two at Ascot. His only blip this season came at Cheltenham, when stepped down in trip, and he didn’t seem to handle it. Now back to an ideal trip, he’s only four pounds higher than his previous winning mark, the same rise in the weights for his first win at Ascot. He holds no entry for Cheltenham and will have been aimed for this race instead.

    Revels Hill makes great each-way appeal, despite this being his first start of the season. He races off the same mark he was for this race last season, 137, when finishing third. Trainer Harry Fry says that he’s a spring horse, and in ideal spring-like conditions he should relish the competition and finish a lot nearer this time. Worth having at 13/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Easy Pic

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:36 – Ascot Chase (Grade One) – Pic D’Orhy @ 15/8 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    Despite having an entry in the Ryanair, Pic D’Orhy should miss Cheltenham. This race is his Cheltenham. Second to a certain Shishkin last year, his unbeaten streak was ended from a tough performance by Banbridge at Kempton. L’Homme Presse is taking the odd route of going intermediate before long-distance and might just want an extra run before the main aim. Interesting to see Ahoy Senor in here, but Aintree will be the time to back him. Pic D’Orhy has been trained for this race all season you feel.

     

    Haydock

    Aiming For Grand Gold

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:15 – Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Premier) – My Silver Lining @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    When My Silver Lining won at Warwick, the cogs turned for Emma Lavelle and team. The Grand National is the aim for this horse and needs to win, at least, another race to be considered. With good form on heavy ground, a low weight in the race and never dropping below second in his last five races, it makes sense to go for him on his path to the Grand National.

    However, a winner of the Grand National Trial has never won the Grand National in the same year (Party Politics won the National the year before, Red Rum won his first two Nationals before his win in the Trial).

    Iwilldoit has had some time to readjust his mark back to a decent handicapping standard. His third in the Fleur De Lys made sure of that and is back competing, even better with jockey Dylan Johnston claiming five pounds. He’s lightly raced, with decent experience on heavy ground and seasoned long-distance travellers have a good record in the race. Nicely priced at 7/1 (General) to win his first race in over a year.

    Chambard still holds a chance at this race, despite being raised seven pounds for his win in the Becher Chase. It didn’t go to plan in the Welsh National, but Haydock may suit a little better with no undulations. And, going on his run in the Becher, there’s no one better in the race that can handle bottomless ground. Outside price, but not an outside chance at 22/1 (General).

     

    Wincanton

    Give You A Clue

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:05 – Kingwell Hurdle (Grade Two) – Colonel Mustard @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    The only reason Rubaud can’t be backed is because of a hefty penalty he carries. That gives Colonel Mustard a big advantage, now back over hurdles after a disappointing time chasing. Plenty in this field won’t like the heavy ground, but Colonel Mustard is the best rated horse and has the value going for him as Rubaud drifts in the market.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Super surprise in store

    Four To Follow: Super surprise in store

    With Warwick and Uttoxeter, it really is a Super Saturday at Newbury today. We’ve got star quality with Shishkin in the Denman and the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle with trainers from both sides of the Irish Sea looking to land the big pot. Here’s four to look out for on the card in Berkshire today.

     

    Super Sam

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:05 – Denman Chase (Grade Two) – Sam Brown @ 11/1 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    With heavy ground setting the precedent for the day, it makes sense to back the mud-lovers. Despite Shishkin being odds-on, he got pulled on heavy ground when it was similar ground at Sandown back in December. Nicky Henderson has said he will not pull the horse due to the ground, but we’ve seen it happen before.

    Protektorat hasn’t won a race in over a year, Hitman can’t travel three miles and Does He Know won’t act on the ground. It makes sense to back Sam Brown after his Classic Chase demolition on soft ground at Warwick last month. A three-time winner on heavy ground has seen his odds slash in half and it makes sense to back him against a vulnerable Shishkin.

     

    Surprise result

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:40 – Game Spirit Chase (Grade Two) – Boothill @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    With Editeur Du Gite confirmed to be pulled, four runners will go to post for a rather lacklustre renewal of the Game Spirit Chase. Edwardstone drops back to two miles after disappointing in the Silviniaco Conti Chase, but the ground looks as though is against him as it will be for his other three opponents.

    There’s only one pound in favour for Edwardstone over Boothill and Amarillo Sky. Amarillo Sky hasn’t run since last year’s Champion Chase, and Boothill is by far the most successful horse in the field. Despite the ground being as testing as it is, Boothill could spring a surprise in the mud against a top two-mile chaser.

     

    French fancy

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:15 – Betfair Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Ocastle Des Mottes @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    When Willie Mullins brings one over, for a big handicap, heads do turn. The fact this is a French arrival, and a good one at that, turns even more heads. Despite after a break of over 230 days, Ocastle Des Mottes will be fully prepared for the challenge. Plus, his previous form on heavy ground in France will benefit him massively.

    Spirit D’Aunou will relish this ground. Two out of his last three wins have come on testing surfaces. And despite being raised 10lbs, and second in the weights, the ground will override those factors. Gary Moore has been focused on this race for him, the fact the ground has come up heavy is a massive plus. 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports) seems fair, but it could be backed in the morning.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this race three times in the last ten years. Five out of the last ten years have been double figure prices. If you follow those simple trends, you’ll find Norman Fletcher. His last win came on heavy ground and was convincing. This is his first time in this company, and he comes in under the radar at a rather low weight. If he wins at 25/1 (General), we won’t be stuck eating porridge.

     

    Bumper bonus

    Embed from Getty Images

    4:25 – Beacons Bumper (NHF Race, Listed) – Union Avenue @ 4/1 (General)

    In a race I wouldn’t usually tip, there’s a few things I like about Union Avenue. Firstly, Jimmy Moffat is bringing this horse down from Cumbria, which must mean he thinks a lot about this horse. Secondly, the trainer is a soft ground merchant. Out of his 18 winners, with five on heavy going. Thirdly, Union Avenue finished behind a certain Captain Bellamy on his final point-to-point start, with the form franked when he won at Chepstow in October.

    The very best of luck

  • Betfair Hurdle Weekend | Big-priced Champ in the feature

    Betfair Hurdle Weekend | Big-priced Champ in the feature

    Betfair Hurdle weekend always provides a good level of clues for the Cheltenham Festival as it’s one of the final stops before jump racing’s Olympics.

    Although rain has decimated racing at both Warwick and Uttoxeter, Newbury and Naas are fit to continue and, as such, I have a few fancies to consider.

     

    1:30 Newbury – Emitom @ 9/2 with William Hill Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Despite his age of 10 and the fact he was once rated 155, no one can fault the form that Emitom is in.

    Since joining Alan King’s yard from Warren Greatrex, the Grade 1-placed gelding has improved 10 pounds from one victory and two seconds.

    His success on stable debut at Newbury in March 2023 saw him beat Hyland, a horse who has improved 13 pounds since, and his second to Saint Davy last time out has received a form boost as the winner won the valuable Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown last weekend.

    Up just two pounds for that effort at Ludlow in January, he has a great Newbury record (two wins and one second) and should relish soft conditions.

     

    3:15 Newbury – Our Champ @ 33/1 with William Hill EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    At the start of the week, I highlighted Our Champ as an interesting outsider for the Betfair Hurdle, and my opinion of him has failed to change.

    The six-year-old has improved markedly since joining Chris Gordon from Paul Henderson, notably due to his two successes towards the start of the season.

    The final one of the pair occurred at Cheltenham when he danced in under Freddie Gordon – who was claiming three pounds due to the conditions of the race – off a mark of 117.

    Three slightly underwhelming runs since has the Champs Elysees gelding back on a mark of 124, though Freddie Gordon is able to claim five pounds today.

    A return to that Cheltenham form is required, but connections have hopefully sorted out a small wind issue as today is his first run after a wind-op and he is also racing with a tongue tie.

    If he handles the ground, which is a slight unknown, then he can certainly outrun his odds.

     

    3:15 Newbury – Altobelli @ 7/1 with William Hill EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    However, although Our Champ deserves a big shout for the Betfair Hurdle, this week’s large quantity of rain means Altobelli is also one to keep onside.

    Unfortunately for Harry Fry and connections, the ground turned to be a bit too quick at Ascot on his last start, yet he ran a belter to finish second to Luccia and Impose Toi, two top-class Nicky Henderson horses.

    The Betfair Exchange Trophy was certainly his season-long plan, so his promising second on seasonal debut was a pleasant surprise.

    Furthermore, ignoring his disappointing effort in a Grade 1 at Aintree, the Maxios gelding is still unexposed and he even beat Ginny’s Destiny in an Exeter bumper which is good form.

    Seven places with William Hill is generous, so a double-pronged attack of him and Our Champ is my angle into the Betfair Hurdle.

     

    3:40 Naas – Riviere D’Etel @ 7/2 with BetVictor Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Anyone who knows a little bit about my cliff horses will appreciate the love I have for Riviere D’etel, so I’m excited to see her back out today.

    She caused a slight surprise – based on the market – to bolt up at Fairyhouse on her last start, though her form with Captain Guinness from the last two renewals of the Fortria Chase puts her in the mix for any high-level mares’ chase.

    Furthermore, although a return to a left-handed track isn’t ideal, she ran well in last year’s Grade 2 Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival before falling and she has good form at Leopardstown from her novice chasing season.

    Her jumping to the right is accounted into the price, but her form over two miles puts her right there and both Allegorie De Vassy and Maskada need to answer some questions.

     

    3:50 Newbury – Hometown Boy @ 8/1 with William Hill EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Although his career has had its bumps in the road, there’s a chance that Hometown Boy could make use of his current rating of 135.

    The nine-year-old had 929 days off the track between his Aintree success off 137 over hurdles in April 2021 and his chase debut at Carlisle in October 2023.

    His 22-length defeat may look bad on paper, but he was travelling well at the front of the field before he overreached at the fourth-last.

    Stuart Edmunds and the team have given him plenty of time after his seasonal reappearance which should negate any ‘bounce factor’, and his novice hurdle form when second to McFabulous could make him well-treated off his current mark.

    The ground should be no issue – his half-brother, Walkinthewoods, produced his best form on soft ground – and he even comes from the same family as Simon, John Spearing’s 2007 Racing Post Trophy winner who achieved a peak rating of 152.

  • Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day Two

    Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day Two

    We head to Dublin for Ireland’s biggest weekend in racing. After the almighty shock of Marine Nationale being downed by Il Etait Temps and the excellent majesty of Galopin Des Champs, it ended up being a disappointing day for the page yesterday. But we look up and head into a new day, armed with the best tips around.

     

    Leopardstown

    Warrior Has A Weakness. FACT.

    Embed from Getty Images

    1:10 – Novice Chase (Turner’s Trial) (Grade 1) – Fact To File @ 2/1 (General)

    If there’s one weakness that Gaelic Warrior has, it’s jumping right-handed. He may have been flawless last year over hurdles, but chasing is a whole different aspect and in a high-quality field, every mistake is costly.

    Fact To File thrashed Zanahiyr over Christmas by 17 lengths, and over C&D. He seems primed to head to the Turner’s, whereas stablemate Gaelic Warrior doesn’t.

    Grangeclare West is one who has been overlooked in the field after winning a Grade One is a high-quality field. Whilst his destination may be over further, he won’t mind stepping back in trip and 9/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports) is far too big. A Fact To File & Grangeclare West reverse forecast may be the bet of the race.

     

    Gallop To Glory

    Embed from Getty Images

    1:50 – Tattersalls Novice Hurdle (Grade One) – Farren Glory @ 18/5 (BetVictor)

    If it hadn’t been for a heavy fall at the second last, Farren Glory would have blitzed the field in the Formby Novices’ Hurdle. The form is clear that he wouldn’t have beaten much after Florida Dreams disappointed at Musselburgh yesterday. He’s still a Grade One winner all in all and Ballyburn did show a chink in his armour on debut, and also didn’t beat much in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown.

     

    You Know What I’m Thinkin’?

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:20 – Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade Three) – Inothewayurthinkin @ 6/1 (General)

    Inothewayurthinkin brings plenty of quality form to the table in this race. A novice still, he’s finished behind Gaelic Warrior twice. He’s slightly up in distance, which won’t trouble him at all. His first handicap mark is generous enough and can make a big impact in a big handicap.

    Heart Wood also has standout novice form, including finishing behind Grangeclare West before he backed it up in a Grade One. With that sort of form, and not being beaten that far behind Grangeclare West, the handicapper took into account his previous run when not up to it against Blood Destiny. He’ll handle the trip and is generously priced at 8/1 (General).

    Lucid Dreams could run a big race, over an untried trip for John Patrick Ryan. He ran a great race behind Uncle Phil in the Dan & Joan Moore and showed signs of staying potential. It’s a big ask and a big hike in distance, but his last win was comfortable over two-and-a-half miles and can recreate that winning feeling under a good claiming ride. On the drift, however, now 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Musselburgh

    Hear The Thunder

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – Scottish Champion Chase (H’cap Chase) – Thunder Rock @7/2 (William Hill)

    There’s no doubt Gavin Sheehan has had the season of his life. Multiple big race wins has just shown how talented a jockey he really is. It’s possibly why Max McNeil and Olly Murphy have chosen him to part with Thunder Rock, with Sean Bowen back to riding on Monday and Adrian Heskin over in Ireland. After disappointing in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, he’s back in a ‘lesser’ race where he doesn’t carry top weight and gives him a fighting chance.

    And it wouldn’t be Musselburgh without Scottish-trained winners. Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox are the leaders in their respective championships at the track and saddle Corrigeen Rock. He finished second on New Year’s Day over two-and-a-half miles and the step back in trip off a pound higher mark, but there looks to be plenty of improvement from him. Generous at 15/2 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Dublin Racing Festival Tips | Warrior or Dancer

    Dublin Racing Festival Tips | Warrior or Dancer

    Day two of the Dublin Racing Festival promises to provide plenty of important clues ahead of the Cheltenham Festival, much like day one.

    El Fabiolo and State Man are short prices to oblige in their respective handicaps, though betting propositions away from the Dublin Chase and Irish Champion Hurdle could prove to be fruitful.

    Add Musselburgh’s fascinating card into the equation and Sunday looks like an epic day for national hunt racing.

     

    12:40 Leopardstown – Fleet Of A Dancer @ 6/1 EW with BetVictor 

    Embed from Getty Images

    Without trying to steal Andrew Blair White’s thunder, Fleet Of A Dancer holds solid claims in the opening mares’ handicap hurdle.

    Paul Nolan’s five-year-old travelled like much the best horse on her last start at Fairyhouse and danced in at big odds, though she received a 12-pound hike for her troubles.

    That penalty seems fair based on what she did and she clearly has no trouble with the trip.

    Add to the fact that she is ground versatile and has good form in big-field handicaps, she could continue to improve past her current mark of 125.

     

    1:10 Leopardstown – Gaelic Warrior @ 11/10 Win with William Hill

    Embed from Getty Images

    It may come as no surprise that Gaelic Warrior is my fancy in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase, but it did surprise me his price of 11/10.

    His tendency to jump out to his right is taken into the price, but on visuals and known form, he deserves his place at the top of the market.

    He is the horse in the lineup that could head to a King George next season and be very competitive, whereas it would be a surprise to see others turn up with a competitive chance in a similar race.

    His jumping on the whole wasn’t too far out to his right at Limerick last time out, and a recreation of that display would see him win this.

     

    1:40 Leopardstown – Ballyburn @ 1/1 Win with William Hill

    Embed from Getty Images

    Completing the duo of short-priced favourites, I think Ballyburn will be too good for his rivals in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Chase.

    Farren Glory is probably his biggest danger, and although it looked as if he was going to win the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle on Boxing Day, the level of the British novice hurdlers looks a few pounds below Ireland’s contingent this year.

    Furthermore, although he failed to frank the form in the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle, his second to Firefox is good form in my book and he looked like a proper animal at Leopardstown over Christmas.

    He is short, but I think his price is pretty fair for what he has done and it will take a good one to get the better of him if he is on top form.

     

    3:20 Leopardstown – Heart Wood @ 8/1 EW with BetVictor

    Embed from Getty Images

    Coming into this season, Heart Wood was a horse I thought could contend Graded novice chases.

    In fairness to the six-year-old, his form when second to Grangeclare West on seasonal reappearance and second to Blood Destiny in December backs this thought up.

    However, a mark of 136 allows connections to try their hand in handicap company and could severely underestimate his potential.

    Rob Acheson, son of owner Brian, said on a pre-season video with the We’re Going Chasing Podcast that they would expect him to win his beginners chase before trying Graded company.

    That hasn’t quite gone to plan, though running into a subsequent Grade 1 winner in Grangeclare West doesn’t dent his reputation at all.

    He looks well treated off his current mark and the extra furlong around Leopardstown should suit him as well.

     

    4:25 Leopardstown – Switch From Diesel @ 33/1 with BetVictor

    Embed from Getty Images

    In the finale of the Dublin Racing Festival, Switch From Diesel has the ability to cause an upset against the well-bred Aurora Vega.

    The five-year-old has contested four bumpers so far, finishing second in two, third in one, and getting the better of Ma Belle Etoile in the other.

    By Yeats, her immediate family has some nifty Flat horses including Egerton, a four-time Group-winning German horse, and Enora, the 2010 German Oaks winner.

    As for her time on the track, although she has to reverse the form with both Baby Kate and Sharp Object, she ran well behind both in the early stages of her career and has notably improved with her racing.

    She highlighted this when her third to Jalon D’Oudairies, a well-fancied Gordon Elliott contender for the Champion Bumper, and Redemption Day, an experienced horse in the bumper scene, on her most recent start.

    Back against her own sex, her Flat-oriented pedigree could put her in good shape for this race, and at 33/1, she is a big price to give a chance to.

     

    British runners

    Over in the UK, two horses are on my list as intriguing bets.

    The first is Thunder Rock over at Musselburgh in the Scottish Champion Chase at 7/2. Max McNeill has a good deal of confidence in him bouncing back from his disappointing effort at Cheltenham and the field in the December Gold Cup was stronger than it is this weekend.

    In the proceeding race, Impact Du Bonheur could get off the mark for Paul Nicholls at 5/1. The £90,000 purchase is sporting first-time blinkers on his second start in a handicap and the heavy ground of Sandown was a negative towards his chance last time out. Better ground should see him go close.

  • Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day One

    Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day One

    We head to Dublin for Ireland’s biggest weekend in racing. All the stable stars come out to strut their stuff before they stuff the British at Cheltenham. It’s always a good indicator to see where each Willie Mullins runner will be heading to in March, but there is a bit of value to be found in the slightly more open novice races. Plus there’s a decent card at Sandown to keep an eye on in today’s Four To Follow.

     

    Leopardstown

    Grades Count

    Embed from Getty Images

    1:20 – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – Loughglynn @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    It’s telling which horse Paul Townend picks to ride in each race for Mullins, and the market is always keen to latch on. I feel though, he’s chosen the wrong horse. Predators Gold hasn’t raced above two-and-a-half miles and was beaten, in heavy ground, last time out. The inexperience may show here.

    Loughglynn is a far more accomplished novice. His win at Grade Two level at Limerick over Christmas showed that this horse has an engine to stay. It won’t be as boggy as Limerick, so has momentum to build on from his maiden win at Punchestown. Well backed Jetara has been running against the girls so far and might find this race a bit too hot.

     

    Mullins & McManus

    Embed from Getty Images

    1:50 – Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade One) – Majborough @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Once again Townend has opted to go for the Gigginstown colours in Storm Heart, who looked like a Grade One juvenile when obliterating his rivals in the mud.

    But there was talk of Majborough early in the season and I’ve been excited to see this horse appear. It’s a sign you’re a good horse when JP McManus buys you. It’s even better when he sends you to Closutton. It becomes even more exciting when you’re first race in Ireland is in a Grade One. If that’s how much connections think of him, there must be something in the water.

     

    Sandown

    Patron Only

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:35 – Scilly Isles’ Novices’ Chase (Grade One) – Le Patron @ 7/2 (General)

    Le Patron is the only Grade One winner in the field. And despite Harry Cobden saying that Hermes Allen was at his best in the Kauto Star on Boxing Day, he still got beat. Le Patron won in bottomless over two miles, but he seemed at his best when winning over C&D back in November. JPR One gave the form a boost when winning the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Lingfield a couple of weeks ago.

    The other big trend is that Paul Nicholls hasn’t won this race since 2009 and it’s unclear if this will be a stepping stone for Hermes Allen to the Festival. This is a race that Le Patron has been trained for.

     

    Racing West

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:10 – Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – West Balboa @ 8/1 (Betfred)

    West Balboa always comes alive in handicaps at this level, and she seems primed once more. After finishing way back in the Long Walk field, she’s had a rest and is back under top weight. Tristan Durell takes off a crucial three pounds to make her mark a little more accessible and she can out race this field in these conditions, which could set her up nicely for a shot at the Pertemps.

    Good Luck Charm was an outside chance in the Lanzarote at Kempton but outran her odds to finish fourth and within a length to favourite Impose Toi. Stepped up in distance, she remains on the same mark and is weighted towards the very bottom of the field. She’s been priced more fairly at 10/1 (Boylesports) but has a huge chance of running to them this time around.

    Equinus won by five lengths at Aintree way back in October and has had some respectable finishes in class two company. James Turner has been booked once again, and conditions will suit the Nigel Twiston-Davies horse. Extra places will useful if backing this horse at 20/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Dublin Racing Festival Tips Diamond in Leopardstown rough

    Dublin Racing Festival Tips Diamond in Leopardstown rough

    The Dublin Racing Festival is on our doorstep in what is the final signpost on the road toward the Cheltenham Festival.

    Ireland’s top trainers have prepared their top horses for two top days of entertainment, all kicking off with the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle.

    With Sandown’s Grade 1 card on the same day, here are a few horses to keep onside on Saturday.

    1:20 Leopardstown – Predators Gold @ 13/8 with William Hill

    Embed from Getty Images

    In the opener, Predators Gold is a horse I have had on my radar all season and connections have opted to step the five-year-old back up in trip to a more suitable distance.

    After his debut success over hurdles, jockey Paul Townend said he got a feel that made him think he was a Grade 1 horse and that was put to the test on his next start when he finished second to Caldwell Potter in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle.

    The conditions that day were attritional, though he dealt with them well and showed that he is a horse who can compete at this level.

    Of his five rivals, none have proven Grade 1 form in the book, though the horse who could improve to outrun his odds is Stellar Story who beat both Ile Atlantique and Caldwell Potter in the two-mile bumper.

    However, with this uncertainty about the rest, Predators Gold looks like the one who could stamp his mark on the staying novice hurdle division.

    3:00 Leopardstown – Joyeux Machin @ 20/1 with William Hill

    Embed from Getty Images

    Paul Nolan’s Joyeux Machin is returning to Leopardstown for the first time since his second to Facile Vega in a bumper back in December 2021, and he could be well treated off 136.

    The seven-year-old has run over fences since the middle of 2023, though he has failed to reach the heights that he promised as a novice hurdler.

    Although returning from fences to hurdles isn’t necessarily positive, his third behind Inthepocket from his debut over hurdles is a nice piece of form and it’s only been six months since he last ran over hurdles.

    His opening success over obstacles saw him finish strongly to beat Viva Devito, a horse who bolted up on his next start in a maiden hurdle, over two miles and he is still unexposed over three miles having won by seven lengths in May 2023 before his second to Minella Crooner over fences.

    He has to put his last race well behind him, but his stint over fences has yet to convince, so a return to hurdles could see him put his best foot forward.

    4:10 Leopardstown – The Folkes Tiara @ 6/1 with Boylesports

    Embed from Getty Images

    Although he benefitted from the departure of Path D’Oroux, the way The Folkes Tiara he won at Leopardstown on Boxing Day was very taking.

    He jumped beautifully coming into the home straight and did well to see it out with a few fast-approaching rivals in behind.

    Furthermore, the eight-year-old was second to Final Orders over course and distance before he improved 17 pounds in December 2022 and he was then a good third to Dinoblue – a subsequent Grade 1 winner – in a two-mile handicap at Punchestown.

    He is a nice improver and could continue to go that way off a workable mark.

    4:10 Leopardstown – Grey Diamond @ 18/1 with William Hill

    Embed from Getty Images

    Not many horses have moved from Sam Thomas to Gordon Elliott, though Grey Diamond is one who fits that criteria and could hit the frame at a big price.

    The 10-year-old last won off a mark of 135 when bolting up at Haydock in facile fashion, so his mark of 136 – as well as Danny Gilligan’s five-pound claim – puts him on a competitive mark.

    He was given plenty to do from the rear on his first two starts over in Ireland, though his last outing was promising as Jack Kennedy wasn’t asking many questions on the turn for home.

    The Gris De Gris gelding is a good horse on his day, as shown by his third to Amarillo Sky and Fugitif at Cheltenham in November 2022, and he should be a fresh and firing horse on his third run for Elliott. Although this means I am putting up two horses in one race, both are big enough to play each-way.

    British Runners

    Embed from Getty Images

    As for the racing over in the UK, three horses look interesting over at Sandown.

    The first comes in the 1:25 at Sandown as Diplomatic Ash looks like a big price at 16/1. The five-year-old is having his handicap debut and showed plenty of promise in novice hurdles behind Walks Like The Man and Idy Wood. A mark of 115 looks lenient and he has a nice pedigree as his mare, Carrigeen Lechuga, is a half-sister to Minella Indo and also achieved a rating of 130 on the track.

    Over an hour later, I think Hermes Allen (11/8) could be too good in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at 2:35. His run in the Kauto Star was good behind Il Est Francais and a drop back to two-and-a-half miles shouldn’t be a worry. He is the Saturday NAP.

    Finally, in the £100,000 handicap hurdle at 3:10, I’m a fan of Transmission at 7/1 for Neil Mulholland. Of course, the recovery of Joe Anderson took all the limelight after his success at Plumpton, but the nature of his overall performance was very good. His maiden hurdle form with Inthepocket and Joyeux Machin suggests 125 is a lenient mark.