Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Trials Day poses more questions for Jonbon

    Cheltenham 2024 | Trials Day poses more questions for Jonbon

    As the dust settles on Trials Day at Cheltenham, Jonbon was given another sizeable reality check.

    With the countdown to Cheltenham 2024 now officially on, it’s just six weeks’ to what will be one of the biggest betting events of 2024.

    After a first visit of the year to the hallowed Gloucestershire turf, Saturday has once again proved telling, so what can we take away from the weekend?

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    Jonbon takes a hit

    There is something about Jonbon that says when it comes to the big dance, he just can’t get it done.

    Taken down in the rearranged Clarence House Chase as overwhelming 1/4f, Elixir Du Nutz stunned the bookies at 22/1.

    Beaten for the first time in five, the hopes of Nicky Henderson’s best 2-miler in Britain took another hit.

    Far from writing his chances off for March, it was however, the gelding’s third defeat in four in Gloucestershire.

    Though Jonbon has won on every other track he has raced on, his win in this season’s Shloer Chase against an out-of-sorts Edwardstone, remains his lone win at Cheltenham.

    That is a worrying statistic and Jonbon now has work to do ahead of a festival reunion with foe El Fabiolo in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

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    Following on from an impressive Tingle Creek win earlier this season, there was no sign of the same confidence.

    Jonbon has never been immaculate over hurdles but his showing this weekend was most alarming, almost falling on two separate occasions.

    His issues with the Cheltenham hurdles remain a thorny issue.

    Even in a two-horse shootout against 9/1 Calico at Warwick before Cheltenham last year, the gelding’s efforts were awkward.

    When Jonbon and El Fabiolo lock horns for the third time, the latter will be around the 1/2f mark.

    To open his winner’s account at the festival, Jonbon must be perfect. Only time will tell if he can prove the doubters wrong.

     

    Lossiemouth looks nailed-on

    As one Cheltenham favourite’s hopes took a blow, Lossiemouth firmly moved into the box seat for back-to-back festival victories.

    Romping to an almost 10L win over Love Envoi in Saturday’s UniBet Hurdle, Willie Mullins’ 8yo remains with just one career loss in six races.

    With the chance for Irish Racing Festival redemption at Leopardstown, her better chances will surely come in March.

    Going up against defending champ State Man and reigning Ballymore Novices’ king Impaire Et Passe this weekend, the Mullins’ trio reignite their burgeoning rivalry.

    However, as far as Cheltenham goes, there are two current options.

    One being the Champion Hurdle, but the perhaps more likely avenue – as to avoid the mighty Constitution Hill – the Mares’ Hurdle.

    The mare’s stiffest competition in that looks to be Ashroe Diamond, who herself won comfortably at Doncaster.

    Nevertheless, Lossiemouth will be a heavy and possible 8/13f.

    After a scare in the Triumph Hurdle last year, Lossiemouth could be a big Festival NAP.

     

    Noble Yeats’ Stayers’ challenge?

    Another big take from Gloucestershire this weekend, could Noble Yeats be ready to throw down in the Stayers’ Hurdle.

    Racing fans already know the stamina of Emmet Mullins’ horse, but the 2022 Grand National victor has the tools for 3m.

    Clinging onto Cleeve Hurdle victory after a late surge, perennial-bridesmaid-of-late Paisley Park was nosed out once more.

    Some label his glorious win 21 months ago a fluke, but on this evidence, the 60/1 Aintree winner will fancy his chances the next time he trots into Cheltenham.

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    After a hugely creditable fourth in last year’s Gold Cup, Noble Yeats now has real chances after picking up a first win on the new course.

    The might of Gordon Elliott’s Teahapoo and Irish Point will be the ones to beat later this year, but the 9yo and Harry Cobden will again be a decent punt at a big-price.

    With the Glenfarclas Chase and two-time defending Delta Work his other option, Noble Yeats should be one to consider for the betslip.

     

    The 2024 Cheltenham Festival begins on Tuesday 12 March

  • Five To Follow | Taking A Noble Hit

    Five To Follow | Taking A Noble Hit

    After last week’s freeze out, the Cheltenham Trials meeting is sure to warm us all up. The stars come out to play, with Jonbon, Paisley Park, The Real Whacker and Il Ridoto to name a few. Plus, Doncaster has a fantastic card to play the support act to Cheltenham. There’s so much going on, we’ve had to make this week, FIVE to follow!

     

    Cheltenham

    Hire The Hitman

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    1:15 – Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – Hitman @ 17/2 (BetVictor)

    Despite being the second string for Paul Nicholls in the race, Hitman has plenty of credentials. He performed well at Cheltenham in his only appearance at Cheltenham. Finishing a good third behind Envoi Allen can’t go unnoticed. He has disappointed since, but a wind op may have cured problems. Freddie Gingell claims a crucial five pounds to make him have a fighting chance and brings plenty of graded form into the race.

    Grandeur D’Ame might not have caused a lot of shockwaves, but finishing fourth behind Fugitif and Il Ridoto on New Year’s Day was a fantastic achievement. He’s been dropped down three pounds by the handicapper, which puts him on terms with Il Ridoto who reopposes. The latter is defending his crown with 10lbs more on his back. Grandeur D’Ame has plenty of each-way claims at 10/1 (Betfred).

    Not many will have heard of Shelia Lewis, but they will have heard of Straw Fan Jack. His last win came at Cheltenham at 2022 and he has been running in far too higher company than he can handle too long. He slips straight in with a mark of 137 and has gone under the nose of the punters and could spring a surprise at 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Don’t Stay Away

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    1:50 – Cotswold Chase (Grade Two) – Stay Away Fay @ 11/4 (BetVictor, BetUK)

    With no top-level chaser in the field, the buck falls to Stay Away Fay. And he can deliver. On a track he’s run at, Nicholl’s has said that he is giving Stay Away Fay a similar prep to last year’s Albert Bartlett run.

    Last year’s winner Ahoy Senor has pulled up twice, once on level weights; Royale Pagaille has never impressed at Cheltenham; Datsalrightgino has a lot to prove on level weights over this distance and despite Paul Townend coming over to ride Capodanno, he will not stay the distance (See Savills Chase replay.)

    It’s a straight match between Stay Away Fay and The Real Whacker, in my opinion, with the novice getting the nod.

     

    You Gotta Love It

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    3:00 – Unibet “International” Hurdle (Grade Two) – Love Envoi @ 7/2 (BetVictor)

    Organisers have moved this race to make it look more of a Champion Hurdle trail. Alas, the Champion Hurdle champion-elect (Constitution Hill) doesn’t turn up. But Lossiemouth has her first run of the season here. And as it’s come so late on in the season, I can only see it being as a prep race and she won’t be as 100% as we’d like her to be.

    Instead Love Envoi looms. She’s better prepped, despite missing her desired race at Lingfield last week. She’s C&D and gave Honeysuckle one hell of a race last March in the Mares’ Hurdle.

     

    A Noble Edition

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    3:35 – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade Two) – Noble Yeats @ 7/2 (General)

    It may seem odd that Noble Yeats comes here rather than the Cotswold, but Emmet Mullins must have the National on his mind. He disappointed over Christmas at Limerick, but you must feel this is a target race before either Festival or National to keep him honest. Paisley Park has been beaten narrowly in both starts this season. Dashel Drasher stayed on well in last year’s renewal, but Noble Yeats could have won, if not for a few mistakes, in the Cotswold Chase last year. A Noble run indeed.

     

    Doncaster

    Looking Forward To This One

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    SBK Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – Forward Plan @ 9/1 (BetUK)

    It’s a very open race, but the ground may give you a clue. The ground is described as good up North after a dry week, which only favours a few horses. One of them being Forward Plan. Anthony Honeyball’s runner won a similar race back December over C&D. He was only raised four pounds and is still well treated by the handicapper for a bigger race.

    Another horse who loves slightly firmer ground is Whistleinthedark. His record on the ground is a first and second. He’s down to the same rating as he was when finishing fourth to Forward Plan back in December. And with his opponent being higher can finish a lot closer at 22/1 (Unibet).

    Top weight Richmond Lake might have more recent form on heavy ground, but he can go on any sort of ground. He’s been dropped two pounds for disappointing at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but Donald McCain’s horses never perform at HQ. His hunting ground is more up North and this seems a more suitable race. Outside chance at 33/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Lingfield Winter Millions | Chewy to prevail in Masterful fashion

    Lingfield Winter Millions | Chewy to prevail in Masterful fashion

    The last seven days have seen national hunt racing fall victim to the elements, though the final day of the Lingfield Winter Millions meeting should provide a good deal of entertainment.

    Protektorat, L’Homme Presse, and JPR One are horses to be excited about in Britain while a clash between Allaho and Appreciate It would water the mouth of any jumps fan.

    So, let’s get stuck into the action.

     

    Win Bets

    1:15 Lingfield – Master Chewy @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Any loyal followers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel (love you all) might have seen me speak about the Grade 2 Lightening Novices’ Chase at Lingfield and suggest Matata was a “fair enough price” at 8/1.

    At the time, this was a very correct statement, and he is one I think can go well, but at the current prices, my finalised first-choice fancy would go to Master Chewy for the Twiston-Davies team of Sam and Nigel.

    My reason for jumping ship is I took a deeper dive into Master Chewy’s success in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton.

    His overall time was quicker than the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase, won by the 159-rated Editeur Du Gite, and although he carried five fewer pounds (which I’ve taken into consideration), his finishing effort was notably quicker as well.

    His runs this season have shown he can sit handily behind a front-running leader and pounce with speed in the final few furlongs, so with a good pace to aim at thanks to stablemate Matata, Nigel Twiston-Davies seems to have a good hand.

     

    1:50 Lingfield – Saint Segal @ 9/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    As much as we love to tune our minds into thinking where certain horses are heading for specific Cheltenham Festival handicaps, sometimes it’s easier to ignore that and stick to focusing on one day at a time.

    With this mentality onboard, Saint Segal is a horse I’m a big fan of and I think he can win a competitive renewal of the Godstone Handicap Chase.

    I believe that the six-year-old would go well in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham off his current mark of 139, but today’s contest will be weaker than any Cheltenham handicap and today’s winner receives a healthy cheque for £26,405.

    Therefore, why wouldn’t connections want to go for a race like this, especially with a horse who was in the process of beating Boothill at Ascot last time out before falling at the final flight?

    Unfortunately, the handicapper has given him three pounds for that effort but there is still wiggle room off his current official rating and trainer Jane Williams is operating at a 30% strike rate from her last 10 runners.

     

    2:25 Lingfield – Nurse Susan @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    With Cheltenham in mind, it’s interesting that Dan Skelton has given Nurse Susan an entry for both the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle and Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle at this year’s Festival.

    The seven-year-old has good form with Love Envoi since early 2022 and managed to get herself back into the winners’ enclosure at Prestbury Park in December thanks to a gritty performance in a handicap.

    Up just four pounds for the success to 129, she could feasibly still be well-handicapped off that mark and she’s tackling 2m7f for the very first time, something which could see her improve further.

    Skelton and the team have always rated her as a decent animal, so with her rating still at a workable level, hopefully she can continue her progress at Lingfield today.

     

    Each-way Bet

    3:35 Lingfield – Notachance @ 20/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW

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    As for the each-way bet today, I’m taking a chance on Notachance off what is a very reasonable mark.

    The 10-year-old hasn’t lived up to his ability since his third in last year’s Warwick Classic Chase, though as such he has dropped 10lbs since to 122.

    He is a proven stayer for Alan King and some of his good performances have received a nice form boost, notably that Classic Chase third as Mr Incredible subsequently finished third in the King Muir and the fourth, Guetapan Collonges, has improved nine pounds since.

    A spark of revival is needed, but his last few heavy defeats haven’t done him justice and he is a tasty-enough price today in order to take a chance.

  • Four To Follow: Presse-ing On

    Four To Follow: Presse-ing On

    With a big freeze in the UK wiping out the much anticipated Clarence House, it’s a relief to have a good jumps card live at Lingfield for their Winter Million meeting. L’Homme Presse makes his seasonal comeback and could shake up the Gold Cup market with a statement win. Plus action over at Thurles too.

     

    Lingfield

    Hakuna…

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    1:15 – Lightning Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – Matata @ 5/2 (General)

    This race has been switched from Doncaster to Lingfield, and yesterday confirmed the news that this race could be going to either Windsor or Ascot in 2025. But it can be an informative race for the Arkle, but this doesn’t look like a renewal that will cause any problems to ante-post favourite Marine Nationale.

    Having said that, it’s a competitive race and my money’s on the mare Matata. She performed admirably at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day in Handicap Company, only down by a length at the line. Her allowance puts her up as the best rated horse in the race and conditions will suit too.

     

    Presse Or Protekt?

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    3:00 – Fleur De Lys Chase – L’Homme Presse @ 8/11 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Only established as a race last year, this could be a graded race in the near future and answer some questions in the Gold Cup puzzle. The intermediate trip could be a good proving ground for those who have the potential to stay and those who needs to drop back.

    One horse who doesn’t have that problem is L’Homme Presse. He hasn’t been seen since the 2022 King George and has bided his time to work his way back into the fray. Going on his novice form, he should outclass the struggling Protektorat, who has had a dismal season. Kim Bailey’s Does He Know hated the ground at Wetherby, and is overpriced to finish behind L’Homme Presse for me at 22/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Thurles

    Haughty Taughty

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    1:05 – Irish EBF Mares Novice Chase (Grade Two) – Hauturiere @ Evs (William Hill)

    It may not look the most attractive race, but when you dig a bit deeper it’s a two-horse race. Hauturiere doesn’t just have the Mullins advantage, but acts better on yielding ground than most of the field, who act better on softer ground. Silent Approach will make it a test after her efforts in a similar race at Cork in November. But Hauturiere should have the edge here

     

    Hattrick Hero?

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    1:35 – Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase (Grade Two) – Allaho @ Evs (William Hill, Betfred)

    After Allaho’s disappointment in the King George, it makes sense to drop him back in trip in a race he’s won twice before. It’s a clear sign that Allaho will go to the Ryanair, but it’s no guarantee he’ll be favourite, or have the race at his mercy.

    Appreciate It looks best place to give him a tough challenge. Despite having not won over fences since January 2023, it’s been tricky to find Appreciate It’s true calling card. This, however, looks his perfect trip, giving how well he battled Fastorslow in the John Durkan. He can cause a little upset, against an Allaho who has question marks over him. Best price 4/1 (William Hill, BetUK).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow | Back To Normal

    Four To Follow | Back To Normal

    After last week’s washout, racing’s back with a bang at Warwick and Kempton. Big handicap action, plus an insight into the Brown Advisory Chase at Warwick and the Ryanair picture at Kempton. It’s a busy day, so Four To Follow is here to help for the big races.

     

    Warwick

    Tough To The Core

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    2:24 – Hampton Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – Apple Away @ 9/4 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Despite five runners, it’s a fascinating renewal for the future staying chasers. Apple Away looks to have her way on the soft ground, as she relished last time out when winning for the first time over fences. She’s up to three miles this time, which will suit her better than the trip in the graduation chase won by Grey Dawning, who she faces today.

    Grey Dawning seemed to suit the two-and-half-mile trip better and Broadway Boy no longer has the luxury of Cheltenham to help him.

     

    Back To Port

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    3:00 – Classic Handicap Chase (Premier) – Beauport @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    In the mud and the rain, Truckers Lodge was a deserved winner of the London National at Sandown, but in behind Beauport showed bags of potential. If not for pecking on landing at the second last, the winning margin may have been a lot shorter. Despite not having won at this marathon distance, Beauport has plenty of talent. Soft ground may make it easier for him and the Twiston-Davies team are the top strikers at Warwick this season.

    Fontaine Collonges had an easy day out in front in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day. She had her conditions, and none of her rivals could lay a glove. For that she’s been raised a steep seven pounds. But in recent years, those high in the weights have found a way to sneak into the top four, and Venetia Williams’ mud lover shouldn’t have a problem at 17/2 (General).

    Laura Morgan’s Percussion has been found over the National fences at Aintree recently. Placed twice, you would think this would be a prep race for the nine-year-old. He has to find something to get in, and he has a fighting chance on the soft ground. There’s no question either about the trip, although he was racing in the slop last time out in the Becher Chase. 14/1 (BetVictor) is great each-way price.

     

    Kempton

    Bridge Over Standing Water

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    2:07 – Silviniaco Conti Chase (Grade Two) – Banbridge @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    I’ve missed Banbridge. One of my favourite horses in training is back and should be firing. He’s got his ground after missing the 2023 Turners’ Novice Chase due to soft ground, and it seems Kempton has been unaffected by the deluges we’ve had.

    Three Grade One winners go head to head, but I have doubts about Edwardstone. Might the step up in trip come too late in his career? Pic D’Orhy demolished a poor field last year and this will be a much stiffer task. Don’t discount Notlongtillmay. Second in the Turners’, he has form from the November Gold Cup to go on and may be worth a reverse forecast with Banbridge.

     

    Imposing Figure

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    2:42 – Lanzarote Hurdle – Impose Toi @ 100/30 (Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK)

    The Lanzarote is not one of my favourite handicaps of the season, but this year looks a decent enough renewal. Impose Toi was only beaten by a neck at Ascot before Christmas and only receives three pounds for it. It doesn’t put him at the top of the handicap and James Bowen, now the Henderson number one, comes over to take the ride instead of the option of Warwick.

    Good Luck Charm raced a blinder at Cheltenham to finish third in a Mares’ Handicap Hurdle last time out. Back to today, she has a claimer on board which may prove to be a masterstroke by the trainer, Anthony Honeyball. She prefers give in the ground, which she’s got, and the market may be overlooking her at 12/1 (William Hill, Betfred).

    Mothill comes into the race on a hattrick bid. Neil Mulholland’s horse is up two classes, which is usually a turn off, but he’s racing of his last winning mark now with a claimer aboard. He’s dominated his last two races, in the final stages, and may spring a shock at 16/1 (Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK).

    The very best of luck!

  • Warwick Classic Chase Day | Lanzarote plan for Aucunrisque

    Warwick Classic Chase Day | Lanzarote plan for Aucunrisque

    After last weekend’s underwhelming quality of racing, Warwick Classic Chase Day and Graded action from Kempton is a welcome addition to the next few days.

    Da Capo Glory’s success at 4/1 helped the Best Of Bets selections last week, and I’ll be hoping to continue the form today.

     

    Win Bets

    12:40 Warwick – Klitschko @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Starting in the second race at Warwick, I think that Klitschko could be ahead of his mark of 118.

    Today is his second start in a handicap having tried his hand in this company at Lingfield on his seasonal reappearance when he probably needed the run.

    The full brother to Henry de Bromhead’s Arctic Bresil looked smart at Plumpton in February to get off the mark, one run after he finished second on soft ground to Jupiter Du Gite at Newbury; both the third and fourth have improved into the mid-120s which has franked the form.

    With the idea that he’ll come on for his last run, Klitschko has the right attributes to land a knockout blow on Warwick Classic Chase Day.

     

    1:49 Warwick – Mel Monroe @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Although Gordon Elliott doesn’t have the greatest record of winning Pertemps Qualifiers, Mel Monroe has the form in the book to change that trend today.

    The three-mile point-to-point winner has finished behind Encanto Bruno, a good horse for Gavin Cromwell, stablemate Croke Park, and Jessica Harrington’s Jetara this season, all three of which are Graded horses.

    Although we don’t know the strength of this year’s novices and how their form translates into open company, one could guess that it is a step above some of the other pieces of form in today’s Pertemps Qualifier.

    Off 132, if Elliott has Pertemps ambitions with this Walk In The Park mare, she would have to go close to winning today in order to ensure her place in the final.

    Furthermore, the step up in trip is something she has been crying out for and soft ground should be no problem.

     

    3:00 Warwick – Malina Girl @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I may have missed the 8/1 ante-post boat with Malina Girl, but her chances are still as good at 3/1 as they were when she was a bigger price.

    Off top weight, the seven-year-old should be well-suited to a staying trip on soft ground based on her Cheltenham form this season.

    The Gavin Cromwell-trained mare bolted up in November off 135 and was in the process of running a mighty race last month before falling at the third-last, though the handicapper was unable to change her mark because of where she fell.

    Following her run in November at the home of jump racing, the Grand National was briefly mentioned by Sean Flanagan, so she is seemingly well-regarded within the stable.

    With Conor Stone-Walsh claiming a valuable five pounds off her back today. Malina Girl is a rightful favourite and one of my favourite horses from this season.

     

    12:55 Kempton – Gentle Slopes @ 13/8 with William Hill – 2pt Win NAP

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    The NAP of the day comes from Kempton as Gentle Slopes should be too good for the opposition in the two-mile novice hurdle.

    Having switched yards to Nicky Henderson, he scored impressively at Cheltenham in November and was talked up as a potential Challow Hurdle horse for previous trainer Milton Harris, though he decided to calm his ambitions and send him back to Cheltenham in December.

    He disappointed there, as he did at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but his bumper form is ahead of his opposition today and sufficient time away from the track – and a new trainer – could feasibly see him back to his best.

    Hopefully, this is the case as connections once thought plenty of him and today’s seasonal reappearance is a winnable race.

     

    3:15 Kempton – Cap Du Mathan @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Completing the win fancies for today is Paul Nicholls’ Cap Du Mathan in the penultimate race at Kempton.

    This season has not been up to scratch thanks to two pulled-up efforts, though his fourth at Ascot over 2m1f is a good piece of form.

    Boothill went on to win another handicap and was in the process of running a good race in the Desert Orchid before falling, First Flow performed brilliantly when second at Chepstow to Quel Destin, and Saint Segal looked like a winner at Ascot on his next start before falling.

    So, in what was a race that was probably too short for him, he ran a cracker.

    Down three pounds since that race, he is just one pound above his last winning mark and Kempton is a track the nine-year-old has previous form around.

    If he can put his last run behind him, today should be an easier test to get back in the winners’ enclosure.

     

    Each-way Bet

    2:42 Kempton – Aucunrisque @ 22/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Having thought all season that the Betfair Hurdle is his target, Aucunrisque failed to get an entry for Newbury’s feature handicap hurdle next month.

    Although this is an interesting move from connections, it does suggest that today’s Lanzarote Hurdle has been the long-term target.

    With an official rating of 140, just two pounds above his Betfair Hurdle-winning mark, the eight-year-old has good form with the likes of Jetoile (now rated 150), Boothill, and Datsalrightgino.

    The No Risk At All gelding is, in my eyes, a Graded animal that trainer Chris Gordon has managed to get back down to a workable mark, and today’s step up in trip could feasibly see him improve.

    Gordon was one place away from winning this race in 2022 with Highway One O Two, so I’m sure he would like to go one better this year.

  • Lawlors Of Naas Weekend Romay searching for Glory

    Lawlors Of Naas Weekend Romay searching for Glory

    This weekend isn’t vintage for racing, but betting propositions around the intriguing Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle on Sunday look fruitful.

    As of this morning, Wincanton has passed its inspection to add to Newcastle on ITV Racing, while Plumpton and Naas tomorrow should be worth a watch.

    With that in mind, here are my best plays over the next two days.

     

    Win Bets

    12:20 Wincanton – Heros De Romay @ 5/2 with William Hill

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    My heart will always have a soft spot for Espoir De Romay, who never quite progressed after his crashing fall in the 2021 Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase, so it’s understandable why his half-brother, Heros De Romay, is one I want to keep onside.

    The seven-year-old has clearly taken time to come to hand, as his half-brother was already jumping fences by the time he was six, but he made the wait worth it when landing the spoils on his debut at Exeter in January 2023.

    He beat a well-regarded Paul Nicholls horse called Pentire Head that day, something he did again 11 months later on his hurdling debut at Chepstow when putting 31 lengths between himself and Hurricane Danny.

    The form of that race received a boost recently as the third, Minella Blueway, bolted up on Welsh Grand National Day and the second, Livin On Luco, was running well on his next start before falling three out.

    Today’s heavy ground and step up to 2m5f should suit, so hopefully his progression through the ranks can continue.

     

    1:30 Wincanton – Fakir @ 4/1 with William Hill NAP

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    Plenty have their eyes on a few horses in the 1:30 who could be on a ‘dangerous’ mark, but few have looked at Fakir off 101.

    The former Gigginstown-owned gelding has dropped like a stone through the handicap over the last 15 months since his victory at Fontwell in September 2022 off a 22-pound higher mark.

    Despite this, he has shown enough to suggest his relative engine is still there, notably when second on his penultimate start.

    In his time for Joseph O’Brien, the nine-year-old bolted up in a competitive handicap hurdle off 121 on heavy ground, so today’s official rating, plus Bradley Harris’ five-pound claim, looks lenient.

    If this is the case, he should be race-fit following his run at Bangor last month and could cause a small upset in first-time cheekpieces.

     

    1:57 Cork – Da Capo Glory @ 4/1 with BetVictor

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    A fellow horse whom I’ve backed in the past, much like Espoir De Romay, is Da Capo Glory who is running in 1:57 over in Ireland.

    Padraig Butler’s seven-year-old has nice form in the book, notably when second to Grangeclare West, a subsequent Grade 1-winning novice chaser, at Punchestown last year as well as a fourth to Fil Dor and Sharjah in a Grade 3 at Gowran Park in February.

    Today will be his first run of the season, which shouldn’t be a worry as he is 2/3 when running after a break of 100+ days, and although a good deal of his form comes on decent ground, he has won on both heavy and soft before.

    He has to carry top weight today, but a helpful seven pounds is taken off thanks to the jockey’s claim and he should go well.

     

    Each-way Bets

    2:40 Wincanton – Honneur D’Ajonc @ 12/1 with William Hill (three places)

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    Starting the each-way plays at Wincanton today, Jane Williams is operating at a 40% SR over the last two weeks and will be hoping that Honneur D’Ajonc can continue her good run of form.

    The seven-year-old has been disappointing since his victory at Hereford less than a year ago, but because of that he is now four pounds below his last winning mark and the third from that race, Super Six, bolted up on his next start.

    Testing ground is something he enjoys based on his handicap hurdle victory in January 2022, a race that has seen Blackjack Magic improve 19lbs, and his novice hurdle success at Wincanton when giving seven pounds away to a subsequent winner Thanksforthehelp.

    As with many each-way plays, the reason they are this price is they may need to bounce back, but he’s still young enough to do so and is on a really competitive mark.

     

    2:00 Naas (Sunday) – An Tobar @ 17/2 with William Hill

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    Firefox has had a nice boost in form from his success over Ballyburn at Fairyhouse last month, but I’m keeping faith in proven Grade 1 form with An Tobar.

    He’s not a horse I’ve latched onto so far this season, but his third in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Chase is hard to ignore as Farren Glory was running a good race at Aintree in the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle before falling and King Of Kingsfield has won a nice maiden hurdle since.

    He’s proven he handles heavy ground and having won a three-mile PtP over three miles, the step up in trip to two-and-a-half miles should suit him well.

     

    2:50 Plumpton (Sunday) – Rose Of Arcadia @ 13/2 with William Hill

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    In the Sussex National, I have good respect for the favourite, Dom Of Mary, but I don’t want to leave Rose Of Arcadia alone at 13/2.

    Her run at Cheltenham in November was weird as it looked like she didn’t stay over 3m3f but three victories over 3m2f during her career would beg to differ.

    Furthermore, she handles testing conditions well and she has no issues in carrying slightly higher racing weights.

    The nine-year-old is four from eight in handicap company since her two runs in the PtP scene in early 2022, though a few of those losses can be forgiven due to quick ground.

    Add to the fact that she finished a good third to Pink Legend (142) and Galia Des Liteaux (145) on her last start, so as much as I think the favourite has an attractive profile, Rose Of Arcadia’s mark of 128 could be lenient.

     

    (2pt win on the NAP, 1pt win on win fancies, and 1pt each-way on the each-way fancies.)

  • New Year Day Racing Belle with a Lion heart

    New Year Day Racing Belle with a Lion heart

    What better way to kick off 2024 than some New Year’s Day Racing across the likes of Cheltenham, Fairyhouse, and Tramore?

    As many will know, Cheltenham is a local track of mine and as such, I’ll be attending Monday’s meeting, but horses are running in both the UK and Ireland that I’m keen to keep onside.

    So, for the first column in 2024, here are my full fancies.

     

    Win Bets

    12:30 Tramore – Belle The Lioness @ 4/1

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    Anyone who took note of my pre-Cheltenham Festival chat around the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle will know my love for Belle The Lioness.

    She didn’t live up to my hype when it came to March, but with a summer on her back and race fitness on her side, I’m backing her to return to the winners’ enclosure on her handicap debut.

    The seven-year-old first came onto my radar after her staying-on second to Liberty Dance, a 131-rated mare, at Thurles in December. The Model Kingdom was back in third, who is also rated in the 130s, and she managed to get relatively near Impaire Et Passe on her next start at Punchestown.

    Although she was disappointing at Wexford in November, her run suggests that she either badly needed it or hated the ground. With form on soft to heavy from her bumper victory in April 2022, one would suggest that it was her lack of race fitness that contributed to her defeat.

    Hopefully, Henry de Bromhead has her back because off a mark of 119, I think she could be well-handicapped.

     

    2:10 Exeter – Geezer Rockstar @ 7/4

    Over at Exeter, another horse who I’ve been excited to see this season is Geezer Rockstar and he is set to make his second start over hurdles.

    Harry Fry’s five-year-old was slightly disappointing on hurdles debut at Taunton last-time-out, but I’m not willing to give up on him based on what he showed at Taunton in a bumper in April.

    Furthermore, the opposition at Exeter doesn’t look the strongest; Pentire Head is probably his best rival based on his second to Johnnywho at Taunton in March, but he is still a work in progress and will likely be better next season.

    With this in mind, Geezer Rockstar deserves respect and has plenty of scope to return to the winners’ enclosure.

     

     

    3:50 Cheltenham – La Marquise @ 5/2

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    In the last at Cheltenham, La Marquise impressed immensely on her first start at Stratford in early November.

    Having spoken to Jamie Snowden prior to her first run, he was hoping for a good run though she was always going to come on for her debut outing.

    She certainly did produce a “good run” as the four-year-old by Beaumec De Houelle, a first-season sire who beat Pic D’Orhy in the Grade 1 Prix Cambaceres in 2018, quickened away nicely on soft ground to win by two lengths. Gavin Sheehan only required one use of the whip at Stratford, so there should be more to come.

    Both the second, Love Tree, and the fifth, Dameofthecotswolds, have won since, so hopefully La Marquise can oblige in receipt of weight from the boys.

     

    Each-way Bets

    1:20 Catterick – Chase A Fortune @ 12/1

    Small fields have made each-way options difficult at Cheltenham, though there’s a chance that Chase A Fortune could be well-handicapped over at Catterick.

    The Chris Grant-trained six-year-old has underperformed in handicap company this season which has been slightly surprising based on his 15-length maiden hurdle success over course and distance in February.

    Looking at his previous form in novice hurdles, the Cannock Chase gelding was racing against eventual 120-rated horses like Chapel Green, Don Hollow, and Astromachia.

    Since then, the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 105 and with his previous form on soft ground, today could see him return to his best.

     

    2:40 Cheltenham – My Bobby Dazzler @ 12/1

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    In a race full of questions – namely, if a few improving horses can handle a rise in the weights – it looks as if My Boby Dazzler could do some damage off a handy mark of 119.

    Mel Rowley’s nine-year-old has a fair record around Prestbury Park based on his two fourth-place efforts in the 2021-22 season.

    Although he has promising form on good ground, namely when behind The Changing Man and Young Butler in a valuable handicap at Haydock in April, he bolted up on deplorable ground in December 2021 off a mark of 118.

    Connections tried their hand at fences with My Bobby Dazzler and he did well to win at Worcester in June before a good fourth at Ludlow on his last start, though the Malinas gelding is back over hurdles which should suit him.

    His last few runs have suggested the old spark is still there and if that is the case, today could be a good day to keep the faith.

  • Four To Follow: Happy New Year!

    Four To Follow: Happy New Year!

    From myself and my colleagues at Best of Bets, a very Happy New Year! Let’s get of to the perfect start, with a profitable New Year’s Day racing. And after celebrating Hogmanay in the centre of Edinburgh, these selections could do the trick of buying a few more rounds at the hotel bar. It’s brand New Year, but the same old Four To Follow.

     

    Cheltenham

    Leaving Me Stumped

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    1:30 – Handicap Chase – Stumptown @ 3/1 (General)

    For the first ‘Premier’ raceday, it’s a pretty awful turnout. But there’s value to be found and Stumptown at 3/1 is an absolute steal. Gavin Cromwell is the top trainer at Cheltenham so far after seven meetings with six winners, returning a +15.07 profit to £1 stakes. Form like that can’t go unnoticed, and since Stumptown’s run in the Hennessey Gold Cup, Cromwell may well have had this race in mind. Heavy ground is yet to be mastered, but Cromwell will have him well set for the race.

     

    New Year, Same Star

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    2:05 – New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (Premier) – Stage Star @ 11/10 (William Hill)

    It’s a dismal turnout for the big handicap of the day, but at least there’s some quality headliner. Stage Star romped home in the November Gold Cup, but with five opponents it looks an open and shut case. Some may say heavy ground is against him, but he loves the soft ground and has never tried the heavy stuff. He’s been on the drift, but I feel he won’t be by race time.

     

    Big Bob V The Rock

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    3:15 – Relkeel Hurdle (Grade Two) – Bob Olinger @ 13/8 (William Hill)

    Whilst there’s only four runners, it looks a quality renewal of the Relkeel. Two Grade One winners in Bob Olinger and Marie’s Rock go head-to-head. Marie’s Rock has the most to prove after disappointing last time out in the Long Distance Hurdle, but a drop in trip should help. But Bob Olinger is fierce opposition. His reappearance record is astonishing, and whilst it hasn’t been 50 days, it’s been long enough. Rachael Blackmore will want to leave with a winner at Cheltenham, and her best chance is here.

     

    Musselburgh

    A Wee Tot

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    2:20 – Auld Reekie Handicap Chase – Half Shot @ 5/1 (General)

    Half Shot looks to make it a quick-fire double having won just under three miles at Kelso last time out. It’s a little odd that trainer Iain Jardine drops him back in trip but it’s clear he can handle going further and soft ground. Despite going up seven pounds, he’s well handicapped and poses a real threat to the Skelton-trained favourite Frere D’Armes.

    And with a cracking chance of finishing in behind is Cracking Destiny. He’s won over two-and-a-half miles and over the course and today he can put the two together. His win over two miles in mid-December was impressive but the handicapper has been fair by raising him only by five pounds. He sneaks in at bottom weight and could be the surprise package in the race at 11/2 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • FIVE To Follow: Boxing Day Bonanza

    FIVE To Follow: Boxing Day Bonanza

    After sleeping off two full plates of Christmas dinner and mince pies galore, we move to the best day of the festive period. Boxing Day. And what a bonanza of racing we have on offer. FIVE Grade One’s from all over the British Isles, and all covered in a special FIVE to Follow.

     

    Kempton

    Auld Lang Syne

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    1:20 – Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade One) – Giovinco @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    I have problems with the top two in the market. Hermes Allen has never gone over three miles before. And the French raider Il Est Francais has never gone on anything firmer than very soft.

    The going may prove to catch some of these horses out and Giovinco will relish it. He was unlucky at Sandown with problems being caused by a loose horse, but it’s clear he’s a stayer and a sharper track may be the trick.

     

    Royal Message

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    1:55 – Christmas Hurdle (Grade One) – Sceau Royal @ 16/1 (PLACE) (William Hill)

    Constitution Hill is not only the best hurdler on the planet right now, he’s probably the best there’s going to be for the decade to come. There’s no wonder he’s such short odds, it’s a case of name the distance with him.

    But to get close to him I’ve gone with an old name. Sceau Royal may be an 11-year-old but he’ll still know his way round Kempton Park like the back of his hand. Rubaud has never quite cut the mustard in terms of performances and will be put against the sword by the old master.

     

    Boxing Banker

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    2:30 – King George VI Chase (Grade One) – Allaho @ 7/4 (General)

    Ever since Bravemansgame was beaten twice this season, I doubted he’d actually coming here. I fear that he’s been overraced and won’t be up to the standard we saw him last year. Then the might of Willie Mullins decided to get a look-in. Allaho looks tailor-made for this race, especially with Paul Townend ditching the usual St. Stephen action at Leopardstown. Allaho has won the Punchestown Gold Cup and has always finished with plenty in the tank when winning his two Ryanair’s. He is the one to beat.

    One who I think is very overpriced is a Grade One winner everyone has dismissed. The Real Whacker beat Gerri Colombe in last year’s Brown Advisory and had that form boosted at the start of November. Handicap Company proved a little too much and is in preferred race conditions here. The ground should suit, and I’ve a feeling trainer Patrick Neville has had this race in mind since the start of the season. Certainly worth something at 17/2 (BetVictor, Unibet, Betfred).

     

    Aintree

    Technically The Tolworth

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    1:05 – William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle (Grade One) – Farren Glory @ 3/1 (Betfred)

    It’s quite rare we see an Irish raider in this race, but maybe it’s because the Irish don’t have far to travel off the ferry? But we get to see a Grade One winning novice hurdler on our shores before most of ours have had two runs. And Farren Glory looked a real nice type when upsetting the odds at Fairyhouse and beating stablemate King Of Kingsfield by one-and-a-half lengths. It’s quite often these days, we don’t have the best novices anymore.

    One to take advantage of the conditions at a price is Favour And Fortune. It’s clear he has a preference for soft ground, even if he’s versatile on form. There hasn’t been a boost from his win at Wetherby, but many of his rivals would prefer there to be less rain up North. Sadly, they won’t be getting it. He’s worth a poke at double figures, 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Leopardstown

    A St. Stephen Star

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    2:20 – Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade One) – Facile Vega @ 1/3 (General)

    With organisers looking to get rid of one of the three novice chases here, an argument may be given to this one and its lack of runners. Only four turn up for this year’s renewal and no more than seven have turned up for one in the past ten years.

    And with the lack of runners comes the lack of value. Facile Vega will win it simply because of his quality, and the lack of opposition. Sharjah may prove to be useful, even at the ripe old age of 10, and Mullins won’t bother giving a sniff to the two other horses. For better value a tricast on the two Mullins runners, plus Cheltenham winner My Mate Mozzie, may pay something back.

    The very best of luck!