Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Long Walk Hurdle Day | Fry’s long-term Ascot Plan

    Long Walk Hurdle Day | Fry’s long-term Ascot Plan

    Last week we had Cheltenham on our TV screens and seven days later, Long Walk Hurdle Day at Ascot provides us with a pre-Christmas cracker on Saturday.

    Despite a few unlucky results with Malina Girl, Nurse Susan got the column out of trouble in the 90th minute last Saturday, so let’s hope that form can continue.

    Before we kick on, this week’s column looks a little bit different. The first bit will cover shorter-priced ‘win’ propositions that interest me on Saturday while the second half will highlight intriguing each-way plays.

     

    Real chance for Real Stone

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    12:20 Haydock – Doyen Star @ 11/4 with BetVictor

    ITV Racing is showing action from both Haydock and Ascot over the weekend, though before the mainstream cameras turn their attention to the northern track, consideration should be given to Doyen Star in the 12:20 at Haydock.

    At the time of writing, he is the outsider of three at 11/4, though he is officially just one pound behind the market leader, Inedit Star, and he is much more unexposed than Nick Kent’s five-year-old.

    On just his second start over hurdles, the Evan Williams-trained five-year-old beat Crebilly comfortably at Chepstow over two miles; the runner-up won impressively since off 127, ran well twice at Cheltenham this season, and now has an official rating of 139.

    Although he faded in his chasing debut, that was in the Grade 2 “Rising Stars” Novices’ Chase on his first start at two-and-a-half miles, so with race fitness on his side, and returning to two miles, I think he’s overpriced.

    2:05 Haydock – Jagwar @ 15/8 with BetVictor

    Fast-forward to 2:05 and Jagwar looks a cut above the field on his handicap debut at 2/1.

    Although Inthewaterside has failed to frank the form, it was a huge run from the four-year-old over two-and-a-half miles at Aintree as he travelled with plenty of speed but was just outstayed. With an opening mark of 119, he should oblige.

    2:40 Haydock – Real Stone @ 11/8 with William Hill

    Another who should do the same is Real Stone 35 minutes later in the 2:40 at Haydock.

    He was a facile 20-length winner at Haydock in soft conditions last month and despite his eight-pound rise in the weights – which looks lenient – Tristan Durrell takes off a valuable five pounds and he is a strong favourite.

    3:35 Ascot – Altobelli @ 7/2 with William Hill

    Over at Ascot, the Betfair Exchange Trophy has been the season-long plan for Altobelli and following his good reappearance over course and distance, there’s no need to lose faith at 7/2.

    Expectations for his last start in the Seat Unique Handicap Hurdle were average as he was always going to come on for the outing, yet he ran a blinder to finish second and even the third, Bad, has since come out and finished second in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury to frank the form.

    Harry Fry is a master a readying one for a big day and hopefully, that can be the case with this son of Maxios.

     

    Haydock is right for Park

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    12:40 Ascot – Illogical Logic @ 25/1 with William Hill

    Having gone through the cards a few times over, there are a few each-way angles I’ve landed on that could outrun their odds.

    The first comes from Ascot as I’m taking a small chance of Illogical Logic in the opener for Christian Williams at 25/1.

    The five-year-old showed plenty of promise on his last start in what was his first attempt at two-and-a-half miles.

    This run came after two runs over an inadequate trip of two miles, though on all three occasions he travelled prominently yet found himself outpaced.

    Today’s step up to three miles will suit much better and with an opening handicap mark of 107, he has the scope to be better than this mark.

    1:30 Haydock – Dr Kananga @ 12/1 with William Hill

    Moving over to Haydock, an early Christmas present may be coming the way of Ben Clarke in the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase as Dr Kananga (12/1) is a well-handicapped horse with suitable conditions.

    The nine-year-old is very honest having had an extended period in the point-to-point and hunter chase scene, though since running in better races, he has bolted up at Sandown off a mark of 125 and finished a good second to Eva’s Oskar at Exeter off 135.

    Last season was disappointing, though connections had the plan of preparing him in a hurdles race before a big handicap chase tilt on two occasions.

    For example, he ran in a novice hurdle at Bangor (when second to Maximilian) before a stab at the Becher Handicap Chase, and he then ran in the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle before he ran in the Kim Muir.

    This didn’t work out, but he had wind issues throughout the campaign, so with a wind-op in the bag and now down to a mark of 128, he should go well in heavy ground at Haydock.

    3:15 Haydock – Bushypark @ 11/1 with William Hill

    In the Haydock finale, there’s reason to believe Bushypark could be ready to go close for Philip Kirby at 11/1.

    His first two starts of the season have lacked positivity, though the handicapper has dropped him a helpful six pounds in the handicap to a mark of 115, a full four pounds below his last winning mark.

    Furthermore, Joe Williamson, who has ridden him to success on two occasions, claims a valuable five pounds off his back.

    Although he may be regressing slightly, there’s no denying the fact he is very well-handicapped on all of his old form and his 2/3 around Haydock.

    If he can get an easy lead from the front, he could sail through the soft conditions and be hard to catch.

  • Four To Follow: Some Christmas Magic

    Four To Follow: Some Christmas Magic

    ‘Twas the Saturday before Christmas and all through the house, everyone was punting even the little mouse. Because it was the Long Walk and everyone wanted to see, Champ and Dashel and even Paisley! Plus three more on the card, so don’t sit in sorrow. Here’s this week’s pre-Christmas Four To Follow!

     

    Ascot

    Christmas Champ

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    2:25 – Long Walk Hurdle (Grade One) – Champ @ 11/2 (William Hill, Unibet, BetUK)

    Champ has probably the best first time out record out of any horse in this race. Only last time, after a break of 110 days, at Aintree did he not keep up that trend. But never discount this horse, as his new found love for hurdling has made him much stronger. He won this race in 2021 first time out and there’s no reason for him to do it again here.

    I also question why the market is discounting Paisley Park, did they not watch the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury? This race is that little bit longer than Newbury’s and he would have wanted every yard of it to win last time out. For two veterans’, who we know can perform to a high class on their day, Paisley Park should not be 13/2 (General).

    The same can be said about the highest rated horse in the race, Dashel Drasher. I think many people forget his win in the Ascot Chase of 2021, and then went to find a more successful career over hurdles. Just because their ages are double digits shouldn’t mean their odds are. And on the back of a tough performance, at a track he likes, he should be shorter than 9/1 (William Hill, Betfred, BetUK).

     

    Christmas Cards

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    3:00 – Silver Cup H’cap Chase (Premier) – Blackjack Magic @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Blackjack Magic was fantastic at Wincanton and he can add another cup to his collection today. Whilst he has been raised six pounds, he is performing a pound below his true mark which puts him at a slight advantage. Trainer Anthony Honeyball wants the ground to be softer, but if he can beat a good going Threeunderthrufive on his not preferred ground, he can do it again.

    In recent renewals, four double-priced winners have won the race, so you may have to look at horses that will have come on for a run. That’s exactly what Switch Hitter has done. A good performer on good-to-soft, he certainly will have come on for his run finishing third last time out on seasonal reappearance. Two pounds lower, he has a threat at 18/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Iberico The Lord

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    3:35 – Exchange Trophy H’cap Hurdle (Premier) – Iberico Lord @ 11/4 (William Hill, BetUK)

    Iberico Lord is possibly the most impressive handicap horse this season. His performance in the Greatwood Hurdle blew many away, and the form from Sonigino and Go Dante backs it up. If the five-year-old backs it up again, we may not see him again until the County Hurdle at the Festival. He looks to have the beating of the field today and can show another fantastic performance today.

    Way down the market, Moveit Like Minnie makes some appeal, even though the rank outsider. He came close to beating Sonigino at Huntingdon last February and has steadily been progressing through the classes. Finn Lambert takes five pounds off him, so he remains a pound above his last winning mark at Huntingdon in November. There may be something at 25/1 (General).

     

    Haydock

    Follow That Star

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    12:55 – Betfred Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed) – Lunar Discovery @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    The ground at Haydock is heavy tomorrow, so mud lovers only need apply if you’re punting there. And one who caught my eye was Jimmy Moffat’s Lunar Discovery. She has a knack for heavy ground, winning on it three out of three times in her career. She’s markedly stepped up in class, but with the heavy ground to help her, her price holds a lot of value.

    The very best of luck!

  • Cheltenham December Gold Cup | Super Scottish holding leading Irish hopes

    Cheltenham December Gold Cup | Super Scottish holding leading Irish hopes

    Anytime action is on at Prestbury Park, the weekend is always an enjoyable one and that doesn’t change for this year’s Cheltenham December Gold Cup meeting.

    Yesterday saw a potential winner of the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle strut her stuff on her maiden outing at the course while the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase revealed a potential Grand National horse.

    Before we start talking about today’s fancies, a quick word should go to the ground conditions on day one of the Cheltenham Christmas meeting as times from the first three races suggested the course was in great nick.

    The overall times weren’t too far off standard and although they did slow up throughout the day, a dry night could suggest the course is riding just a small bit quicker than the official going of soft.

    Anyway, with a big day of action ahead of us, here are my main plays.

     

    1:15 Cheltenham – Aucunrisque @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    The mid-week money came for In Excelsis Deo at the head of the market, and although he should be given good consideration, I thought Chris Gordon’s Aucunrisque could be the forgotten horse of the afternoon.

    Last season’s Betfair Hurdle winner mixed between hurdles and fences last season, with Gordon keen to make use of both handicap marks in the different disciplines.

    So, while his hurdles mark rose to 147 after his Newbury success, his chase mark remained at 144 and even received a two-pound drop after last month’s fifth in the Jim Barry Hurst Park Handicap Chase.

    Although a rating of 142 is four pounds above his last winning mark, the seven-year-old has good form in the book to suggest he could still win off a lenient mark.

    Last season’s campaign began with a novice chase success over Jetoile at Uttoxeter, form that looks good as the runner-up has improved 20lbs thanks to three victories, one of which was in the Old Roan Chase.

    After that, he finished second off 138 to Frere D’Armes at Newbury, a race that saw the third, Datsalrightgino, win the Coral Gold Cup subsequently and the fifth, Balco Coastal, finish second to Gerri Colombe in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase in February.

    One month later, Aucunrisque finished a good second to Boothill in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase before his Betfair Hurdle success in the new year.

    One run over fences and one run over hurdles this season should have him race fit for today’s task.

     

    1:50 Cheltenham – So Scottish @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    All week, So Scottish has been my main hope for the December Gold Cup, and as of this morning, the money has come for him.

    6/1 is now just a memory as bookies have squeezed the six-year-old into 9/2 and 4/1, and you can see why.

    Emmet Mullins’ improving Martaline gelding disappointed at the backend of last season, but before his average seventh in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival, he ran well when second to Boothill (then rated 140, now rated 18lbs higher) over 2m1f.

    Prior to that run, he won over 2m4f at Carlisle and thrashed Railway Hurricane, who reopposes today, at Tipperary in October 2022.

    With a run under his belt at Gowran Park on heavy ground, he should prefer the step up in trip and good racing ground, so hopefully, he can make use of his lenient 141 rating.

    However, he isn’t the only one I’m backing in the December Gold Cup.

     

    1:50 Cheltenham – Do Your Job @ 28/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW

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    In case he is ready to win off a very attractive mark, I’m having a saver on Do Your Job at a big price each way.

    The nine-year-old has disappointed on his last five runs, though the form of his victory at Ayr in the Grade 2 Future Champion Novices’ Chase in 2022 looks very good.

    The second, Minella Drama, has officially improved 11lbs since, and Il Ridoto, a general 8/1 chance for today’s feature contest, was back in third.

    Furthermore, he got to within 10 lengths of Edwardstone in the 2021 Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase, a race that had the now 149-rated Solo back in third.

    If you completely discount last season, Lucinda Russell’s Fame And Glory gelding looks well-handicapped off 136 and the New Course test of Prestbury Park over 2m4f should suit well.

     

    3:00 Cheltenham – Moon D’Orange @ 12/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Finally, for the main selections, I’m taking a chance that Moon D’Orange could take a big step up on his first start in Graded company.

    The five-year-old has progressed nicely for John McConnell, who is finally finding some form, since his fourth in a 2m4f maiden hurdle at Leopardstown on December 28th, a race that was won by Henry de Bromhead’s Deep Cave with Lot Of Joy and Firm Footings filling the places.

    Fast-forward to this season and after an unseating at Galway, he ran a great race to finish second to the exciting Johnnywho at Carlisle in November with Whistle Stop Tour, an 18-length novice hurdle winner, back in third.

    Having stepped up in trip on his latest start, the Spanish Moon gelding rallied for pressure despite idling slightly on the run to the winning post; as such, connections have reached for the first-time cheekpieces today.

    In a race that isn’t a vintage renewal, McConnell could have another chance to land a pre-Festival Cheltenham winner, something he did with ease last season.

     

    Elsewhere

    Over at Hereford, Lime Avenue looks ready to win at 9/4 on his second start in handicap company (1:35). Better ground is key for him and Angus Cheleda claims a valuable five pounds in the saddle. 1pt Win.

    In the 2:25 at Cheltenham, Malina Girl at 6/1 could be a potential Grand National horse and although she has an extra 11 pounds to carry today, the five-pound claim of Conor Stone-Walsh will negate some of that. She was impressive last time out and the ground should be fine. 1pt EW.

    Finally, in the last, Nurse Susan at 13.2 holds plenty of appeal in a handicap off 125. She had a big break between her fourth at in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle in 2022 and her reappearance at Exeter last month, but a return to hurdles should suit and she will now be race fit. Dan Skelton rates her highly and could be useful off 125. 1pt Win

  • Four To Follow: Pre-Christmas Cheer

    Four To Follow: Pre-Christmas Cheer

    Christmas is just around the corner and Cheltenham serves up some pre-festive cheer with the December Gold Cup. Plus, Protektorat features in the three-mile handicap, and we get a look in to the Albert Bartlett picture with the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle. All three feature in today’s Four to Follow.

     

    A Storm Is Brewing

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    1:50 – December Gold Cup (Premier H’cap) – Thunder Rock @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Thunder Rock looked every part of the winner when winning the Colin Parker at Carlisle. Mahler Mission backed the form up by stepping up in trip and narrowly missed out on the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. Thunder Rock has performed round here before, and beaten Monmiral in the process, so has every right to be a well-backed favourite for the race.

    An underrated performer in the field is Frero Banbou. He’s looked more comfortable stepping up in distance than he did last season, and that’s been evident by placing in his last two races. His mark is only two pounds higher than his last winning one and, backed up by Cepage yesterday, Venetia Williams’ horses thrives on this type of ground at this time of year. Decent each-way chance at 11/1 (BetUK).

    Gavin Cromwell is the top trainer at Cheltenham this season so far. Six winners out of 14 runners at a 43% strike rate, he’s the man at Prestbury Park this season. He’s expressed his disappointment of Railway Hurricane being five pounds out of the handicap but has combated that with Connor-Stone-Walsh claiming the five pounds. He’s been placed twice at Cheltenham, and Ginny’s Destiny has backed up the form of his last race. Interesting at 22/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    Let’s Put On A Show

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    2:25 – The Sun Handicap Chase (Premier) – Broadway Boy @ 7/2 (William Hill, Betfred, BetUK)

    Broadway Boy was nothing short of phenomenal on his last start. His love for the course is clear, but a new challenge awaits in the galloping nature of the new course. Fakir D’oudairies’ addition to the race makes Broadway Boy’s weight light and his jumping, if anything like last time, can put him in a league of his own.

    Elvis Mail may be more suited to the borders of Kelso. But a slight three-pound raise in the weights won’t cause him much trouble. His two wins at this level should put him up there, but it’s a tougher test. He can stay and he can handle the ground too, so why can’t he run a big race? 12/1 (General) says he doesn’t.

     

    Bob’s Your Uncle

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    3:00 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Shanagh Bob @ 9/4 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Shanagh Bob is another one of those exciting novice hurdlers from the Nicky Henderson yard. After the impressive Plumpton win, Henderson was reserved in his judgement and is waiting to see how he handles the step up in trip. He should handle it, given his sole point-to-point win came over three miles.

    The owner of the potato company that sponsors this race, Ronnie Bartlett, has a runner in the race that looks quite exciting. Cadell is trained by Lucinda Russell, who is arguably one of the top trainers up there with the likes of Nicholls and Henderson, and makes a gradual step up in trip, which will be relished. Potential has shone through on his first two starts over hurdles at Kelso and could show up here. A little overpriced at 6/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    The Local Hero

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    2:05 – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle – Bonntay @ 5/2 (General)

    Paddy Brennan has only two rides over Friday and Saturday. One was on Dysart Enos, which won, the other is on Bonntay. If Bonntay wins, Brennan will bring up a landmark 1500 career wins. What better horse to do it on. A two-time winner around the track, she steps up in trip for the first time since Market Rasen, and the first time up to two-and-a-half miles. It’s clear she’s been wanting the step up and she is a serious horse for the Fergal O’Brien.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: He Ain’t Heavy

    Four To Follow: He Ain’t Heavy

    As much as we wouldn’t like it to be, the ground is pretty heavy going out there. In the space of a week we’ve gone from freezing over to a bottomless pit. But a drop of rain won’t spoil the party, as there’s some top class action at Sandown, plus action over the National fences at Aintree.

     

    Sandown

    Love Is All Around

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    1:15 – Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade One) – Love Envoi @ 7/1 (888Sport)

    With the ground looking on the boggy side, and more rain expected overnight, it’s unlikely we will see Constitution Hill. Which makes the race wide open, until you see soft ground specialist Love Envoi in the mix. Expect Love Envoi to be short-odds favourite if the unbeaten Champion horse is pulled out. Love Envoi always makes a good impression on reappearance and can build on her defeat to Honeysuckle in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Festival.

     

    The Party’s A Bit Heavy

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    1:50 – Henry VIII Novice’s Chase (Grade One) – Unexpected Party @ 4/1 (General)

    It’s weird to see Unexpected Party in this race, twelve months on from finishing third last year. He’s by far the most experienced in the group, and in open company looks to be threatening. He’s the highest rated horse in the field and given the situation with potential Arkle hopes from the UK, he should have these on toast. Ground won’t be a problem and is stepping back in trip in another weak looking Grade One Novice Chase.

     

    Fontaine Of Youth

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    3:35 – London National Handicap Chase – Fontaine Collonges @ 16/5 (BetVictor)

    This race is always a highlight as it means we’re getting closer to that yuletide treat of the Welsh National. And with the Trial happening today at Chepstow, it’s worth a pivotal look at both. Mud lovers need apply for both races, and at Sandown one springs to mind.

    Fontaine Collonges has the making of staying chaser, and the more mud the better for her. She’s first time out this season for Venetia Williams, who we all know is in fine fettle. Ned Fox claims a crucial five pounds, to make her weight even more attractive. A wind operation will excuse the poor run at the Festival and put her right in the picture for today’s heavy going test.

    Another mud-lover at Sandown is Truckers Lodge. Surprising that Paul Nicholls chose to come here instead of Chepstow, the former Welsh National winner has the conditions in his favour. He was unlucky when brought down at Cheltenham, though he may not have won in the firmer conditions that day. The 11-year-old can still show some class in a race that could just fall apart. Worth a shout at 10/1 (Betfred, BetVictor, BetUK).

     

    Aintree

    That Same Lad Again

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    2:05 – Boylesports Becher Handicap Chase (Premier) – Ashtown Lad @ 5/1 (William Hill)

    It always helps when you have some experience in testing conditions, and over the hardest fences in the land. Ashtown Lad ticks both those boxes. His handicap mark was protected by the Skelton’s who ran him in hurdle races before a poor run in the Topham Chase. He blew the cobwebs off at Wincanton in the Badger Beers and is only two pounds higher than last year’s mark. Harry Skelton also decides to come here instead of Sandown, which could prove key to Ashtown Lad’s chances.

    The Big Breakaway also ticks the boxes that Ashtown Lad does, but at a healthier price. He finished fifth in the Badger Beers but sees his handicap mark drop two pounds. A drop like that could prove pivotal. He has experience around the National fences, although will need better luck than falling at the second. A shout at 15/2 (888Sport).

    The very best of luck!

  • Tingle Creek Day | It’s Brave to take on Seasca

    Tingle Creek Day | It’s Brave to take on Seasca

    It’s been a tough time to be a Jumps fan recently with abandonments and poor weather sweeping the country, though help is on the way thanks to Tingle Creek Day on Saturday.

    Eight races from Sandown plus a good Aintree card makes this weekend one to enjoy, and that’s before we even think about the return of El Fabiolo in the Hilly Way on Sunday.

    As usual, a few horses are grabbing my attention ahead of the start of play, so let’s talk about them.

     

    1:30 Aintree – Brave Seasca @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    The fifth race at Aintree on Saturday could experience a case of Déjà vu as Brave Seasca is looking to win the contest for the second year in a row.

    The eight-year-old won last year’s renewal off a mark of 146 in a comfortable manner on ground that was probably as quick as he would have liked it.

    12 months on, Venetia Williams’ experienced chaser returns to the scene of the crime off a one-pound lower mark thanks to a nice display of leniency from the handicapper.

    Furthermore, he comes into Saturday’s task with the benefit of race fitness on his side after a run in the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter where he raced the widest of them all before fading due to a lack of fitness.

    With the yard in a fair level of form at the moment, Brave Seasca is a classy horse and looks well-handicapped on last season’s evidence.

     

    1:50 Sandown – JPR One @ 7/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    As mentioned on Wednesday’s Only Fools Love Horses video, JPR One was highlighted as one of my best bets for the weekend at an ante-post stage.

    Not much has changed since I said this as I still believe he is the most likely winner based on what he has shown over fences so far.

    The improving six-year-old won on heavy ground at Newton Abbot to start the season before his promising effort at Cheltenham when he infamously unshipped Brendan Powell after the last fence.

    Although a few people questioned why he was given 11 pounds by the handicapper, a penalty of somewhere in that region is understandable as he would have seemingly bolted up if not for his mistake.

    Furthermore, JPR One has good form from his time over hurdles and even finished a close second to Datsalrightgino, this season’s Coral Gold Cup winner, at Cheltenham in December 2021.

    Although conditions will likely suit Colonel Harry, soft ground should be no issue for JPR One and he deserves his big-race success.

     

    3:35 Sandown – Fontaine Collonges @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    This year’s renewal of the London National is a tight handicap as nine of the top 10 horses in the handicap are within seven pounds of each other.

    So, who looks like the best horse at the top of the handicap? In my eyes, with soft ground on the agenda, Fontaine Collonges is the one I’m keeping onside for an across-the-card Venetia Williams double.

    The eight-year-old progressed nicely last season with three victories on good to soft, soft, and heavy ground.

    The latest of these occurred in November 2022 on her first start of the season where she beat The Big Breakaway at Haydock; Joe Tizzard’s stable star went on to finish second in the Welsh Grand National to frank the form.

    Following an eye-catching fourth to Remastered at Kempton and two poor runs to finish the season, Williams has given her a wind-op over the summer ahead of her seasonal reappearance on Saturday.

    For a horse who clearly goes wells fresh, Ned Fox will take off a valuable five pounds in the saddle to add to her lenient handicap mark of 133, all of which suggests Fontaine Collonges has a great chance to pick up her fifth career success.

  • Four To Follow: A Stroke Of Genius

    Four To Follow: A Stroke Of Genius

    We’re all heading to Newbury this Saturday to escape some of the freezing weather up North. With Newcastle cancelled, and some more likely, all eyes are on Berkshire. The Coral Gold Cup, or Hennessey if you prefer, takes centre stage with some exiting novices to look out for too. It’s another Saturday Four To Follow

     

    It’s Cold Up North

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    1:40 – Coral Handicap Hurdle – North Lodge @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Despite being off the track for 602 days, North Lodge looks like a class above here. He was last seen being placed in a Grade One novice hurdle at Aintree, beating the likes of Good Risk At All, Colonel Mustard and Stage Star. With a form book like that, there’s a weight of expectation for North Lodge to start with a win. And with the ground conditions a little firmer than usual, North Lodge should relish and outperform this significant drop in class.

    That being said, Get A Tonic provides a more definite outlook. After experimenting over fences, she’s back to hurdles and racing off a decent mark of 130. A drop of five pounds is significant and may enjoy the drop back in trip too. Offers similar value to North Lodge at 15/2 (William Hill), and has already had a run for the Skelton’s.

     

    Everything Is Under Control

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    2:15 – Gerry Fielden Intermediate H’cap Hurdle (Premier) – Under Control @ 13/8 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    My BestofBets colleague Ash Symonds has waxed lyrical since the start of the season about Under Control. And I’ve succumbed to agree with him, for this race at least. Nine wins for Nicky Henderson in this race, shows how much quality can come out of it. And beating Iberico Lord only makes a simpler task of picking him as the NAP of the day. Expect him to go off odds-on.

    And Our Champ could also turn up at a rather inflated price. He was well beaten on soft ground last time out, but the ground will be more to his liking today. Rex Dingle will be hoping for another determined performance after Dashel Drasher’s narrow win yesterday, but he may have to settle for second with and impressive winner at the start of this season. Each-way claims at 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK).

     

    Behold, My Genius Plan

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    2:50 – Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier) – Monbeg Genius @ 15/2 (Betfred, Boylesports)

    Probably the most improving horse in the field, Monbeg Genius has every right to be up there for this one. Ignore his Ascot run, when he was hampered, and you have a horse worthy winning any big handicap.

    The main formline is the Ultima from March, a Grand National winner and a horse who has beaten the Gold Cup winner twice is something worth noting. And, keeping it in the family, Minella Missile (Tipped on this page) won at Cheltenham and is two from two.

    Ground is no object, weight is perfect, trainer in form. What could possibly go wrong?

    Stolen Silver may look like one that’s been thrown in the deep end by the handicapper. But with Ahoy Senor’s addition, the weight he’s carrying looks doable. A win in the Native River at Chepstow assured the fact he would easily get the three-mile trip.

    Whilst it may look he wants soft ground, he will go on any. Sam Thomas is a good placing trainer and I expect he has had Stolen Silver ready for this tilt. Worth having on your side at 12/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports).

    And an outsider that could get in those extra places, Kitty’s Light. It may not be his time of the season yet, but you feel with his chasing mark he has to go for these big handicaps. He’s weighted favourably for this race, and he’s coming in here off the back of two underwhelming hurdle runs.

    He’s much better over the bigger obstacles and possesses so much quality, he’s hard to ignore at 20/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Chest-Nutz Roasting

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    3:25 – Jim Joel Memorial Trophy H’cap Chase – Elixir De Nutz @ 11/2 (General)

    Master Chewy has been well backed after taking to fences well. But Elixir De Nutz displayed the quality of a six-year-old when winning the Haldon Gold Cup in fantastic fashion. Go back to the run in last year’s Game Spirit and you’ll see him plugging on when the pace got hot. Freddie Gingell is back after his big break at Exeter and can find some form for the duo.

    The very best of luck!

  • Coral Gold Cup Day 2 | It’s all Under Control

    Coral Gold Cup Day 2 | It’s all Under Control

    At the time of writing, action at Newbury is in doubt over an impending surge of cold weather ahead of the second day of the Coral Gold Cup Meeting.

    Despite this, there are a few horses I want to keep on my side on Saturday and if frozen ground does scupper any chances of racing, there’s no harm done from a betting perspective. 

    After yesterday’s profitable day, hopefully racing does go ahead tomorrow because if it does, here are my main fancies.

     

    11:55 Newbury – Manimole @ 2/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win 

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    Starting with the first race of the day at Newbury, course winner Manimole looks like a worthy favourite for the Nigel Twiston-Davies team. 

    The six-year-old by Sulamani put in a career-best effort at the track earlier this month to win by 15 lengths. 

    Although this was surprising, trainer Twiston-Davies described the performance as “unbelievable” and her as a “proper horse”. 

    Due to the victory, she carries a three-pound penalty against her rivals, though there isn’t much in the race that scares me apart from Mighty Moth who finished third to Jango Baie and Tellherthename at Ascot last-time-out. 

    Although that form looks useful on paper, she was 13 lengths behind the runaway pair and could be slightly flattered for it. 

    So, with this in mind, Manimole is my idea of the likely winner. 

     

    1:40 Newbury – Off To A Flyer @ 15/2 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW 

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    Admittedly, Jet Powered could be chucked in for the Coral Racing Club Handicap Hurdle, but there’s no getting away from Off To A Flyer in my eyes at 8/1. 

    The six-year-old is improving for Joe Tizzard and blew the cobwebs off at Cheltenham just over two weeks ago. 

    Before that, he finished last season with a nice win at Ayr over three miles and both the second, Aramax, and third, Quick Draw, have improved by 15 and eight pounds respectively. 

    Furthermore, the gelding by Shirocco ran well when collared late-on by The Carpenter at Exeter in February; the winner has since won two more races and is now rated 134. 

    With the hope that Tizzard has him 100% ready for a race worth £40,000, he looks well-handicapped and conditions should suit. 

     

    2:15 Newbury – Under Control @ 13/8 with William Hill – 3pt Win 

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    For people who have followed my posts on X in recent weeks, you’ll know that Under Control for the Gerry Feilden Handicap Hurdle has been a long-term hope of mine. 

    The form of her last race at Sandown is working out very well as the second, Iberico Lord, won the Greatwood Hurdle two weeks ago, the third, Arqoob, won at Sandown earlier this month and the fourth, General Medrano, has won twice over fences and improved his rating by 17 pounds. 

    As form goes, there isn’t much better than that and Nicky Henderson has had this race in mind for a long time. 

    Furthermore, the boss of Seven Barrows has a long and illustrious history with the Gerry Feilden having first won the race in 1999 with Bacchanal

    Since that success, Seven Barrows has produced eight further winners including Epatante in 2019 before her Champion Hurdle success two starts later. 

    Henderson has always thought plenty of Under Control and despite a racing weight of 11-13, a lot suggests she should win this race. 

     

    2:50 Newbury – Ga Law @ 25/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW 

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    Finally, with the abandonment of Newcastle’s card on Saturday, all roads lead to the Coral Gold Cup for Jamie Snowden’s Ga Law to take his chance at Newbury. 

    Although he failed to complete in the Grade 1 Alder Hey Aintree Bowl Chase at Aintree, last season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup winner is still unexposed at over extended distances having looked a likely winner before falling in the Sky Bet Handicap Chase in January. 

    His Aintree disappointment came less than a month after he finished a staying-on fifth in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival behind Envoi Allen, Shishkin, Hitman, and French Dynamite. 

    Prior to that, Snowden briefly mentioned about the Grand National for his improving seven-year-old, so connections seem to think he has a big engine over staying trips. 

    In what is a compact handicap, Ga Law is a classy horse and could continue to progress in a race like this especially with a run under his belt for race fitness. 

  • Coral Gold Cup Meeting Day 1 | Kid’s Time to shine

    Coral Gold Cup Meeting Day 1 | Kid’s Time to shine

    The Coral Gold Cup – or Hennessy for those vintage racing fans – is an event that I enjoy for many reasons. 

    Firstly, the feature contest is usually a competitive betting heat with plenty holding strong claims and secondly, the supporting card on both days is top class. 

    From Graded action to interesting maiden hurdles, novice events to intriguing handicaps, these two days at Newbury have a lot to offer. 

    With this in mind, three horses have caught my attention for Friday’s card at the Berkshire track, so let’s dive in. 

     

    12:40 Newbury – Persian Time @ 9/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win 

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    Nicky Henderson’s recent strike rate speaks for itself thanks to 11 winners from his last 34 runners, and with Constitution Hill set to give him a nervous few nights of sleep, hopefully, Persian Time can help settle any pre-Fighting Fifth jitters in the 12:40 at Newbury on Friday. 

    Owned by the McNeill and Stone Family, the five-year-old is making his debut over fences on Friday and is the choice of stable jockey Nico de Boinville over the more experienced Russian Ruler. 

    When we last saw Persian Time, he finished second to Paul Nicholls’ Hugos New Horse at Ayr when looking like the winner for the majority of the race. 

    Arguably, hitting the front at the third-last was a bit too soon as the winner passed him late on when A P Heskin’s mount started to fade. 

    Although he didn’t win, the Califet gelding showed great promise having pulled up in the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle one month prior. 

    This race, as well as two previous runs, were over two-and-a-half miles, though this drop back to two miles looks like a wise decision as this horse isn’t short of speed and a stiff test around Newbury should play to his strengths. 

    Therefore, if he takes to fences well – which can only be assumed if Henderson is running him in a novice handicap chase on his seasonal reappearance – he should be a big player. 

     

    2:25 Newbury – Kandoo Kid @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win 

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    In a recent Racing Post stable tour, Paul Nicholls said that he hadn’t “scratched the surface” yet with Kandoo Kid who makes his third start over fences in the 2m4f handicap chase. 

    The seven-year-old by Kapgarde has good course and distance form thanks to his second-place effort earlier this month to Galop De Chasse; the pair pulled 32 lengths clear of the third, Our Jet, who won at Kempton on Monday. 

    Looking back on last season, the gallant grey finished a good third to Persian Time at Ascot when giving five pounds away to the winner.

    Before that, he impressively beat Shallwehaveonemore, a horse who won at Sandown by 20 lengths on his next start before his second to Aucunrisque in the 2022 Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle, at Ascot in October 2021. 

    The ever-quickening Newbury ground will be fine having won on good to firm at Taunton on his hurdling debut and with a few of his rivals needing to prove they are well-handicapped to win, Kandoo Kid should be close at the finish. 

     

    3:35 Newbury – Hoe Joly Smoke @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win 

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    Last week, Beat The Bat and Welcome To Cartries put on a good duel at Ascot with the former coming out on top. 

    Prior to this success, Harry Fry’s exciting novice started his season with a second at Chepstow in October behind the impressive Masaccio and this weekend, the third from that contest, Hoe Joly Smoke, is looking to get a first win under rules. 

    Dan Skelton’s point-to-point winner has good form from his novice hurdling season thanks to his second to Makin’yourmindup, a Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle winner in February, at Chepstow in October 2022. 

    The five-year-old then finished second to Doyen Star, an unexposed Evan Williams-trained five-year-old, at the same course three months later.

    Also in that race was Crebilly who crossed the line in second; he has improved 11 pounds since that run and looked a likely winner at Cheltenham over fences earlier this month.

    Furthermore, his experience around Chepstow puts him in good shape for the challenge of Newbury and this step up to three miles is welcomed due to his big galloping nature. 

    As a result, Hoe Joly Smoke looks like a good each-way bet in the lucky last. 

  • Betfair Chase Day | Leave no Stone unturned

    Betfair Chase Day | Leave no Stone unturned

    Last weekend, the Cheltenham November Meeting dominated our screens but there’s no time to rest as the action comes thick and fast at this time of the season with the Betfair Chase taking centre stage. 

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    Alongside that, Punchestown hosts two Grade 1 races with the Morgiana and John Durkan as well as an interesting card at Ascot. 

    So, without delay, here are the main fancies for Saturday. 

     

    12:05 Haydock – Primoz @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win 

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    Starting with Haydock, the top three are dominating the market for the opening contest of the day, though it’s the outsider of the three, Primoz, that I’m siding with. 

    The Lucinda Russell-trained five-year-old made all at Ayr under Stephen Mulqueen, yet despite his apparent keenness, he quickened up nicely from the front to win by five lengths. 

    Visually, he looked impressive and on form, he beat I Love My Baie, an eight-and-a-half-length Perth maiden hurdle winner, Florida Dreams, the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper winner at Aintree, and Indeevar Blue, an exciting horse for Olly Murphy. 

    It’s a tough race and plenty can improve for their first run of the season, but Primoz has the scope to do the same and he is a well-regarded horse at home. 

     

    12:40 Haydock – Real Stone @ 5/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win 

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    The subsequent race at Haydock is an interesting two-mile handicap chase, and in a day where Dan Skelton could land Grade 1 success with Protektorat, the team have a good chance of starting well with Real Stone. 

    This improving eight-year-old is riddled with ability and has just 10-11 to lumber around a testing Haydock whereas his nearest market rival, Cheddleton, has 12-2 on his back. 

    Real Stone already has a chase victory under his belt having won at the third time of asking at Ffos Las, a race that has seen the second, Another Crick, improve six pounds and the third, Mongol Emperor, improve three pounds. 

    Although those numbers aren’t staggering, it shows he ran in a good race off a high racing weight of 11-12 on soft ground against two winners-in-waiting. 

    Speaking of good form, he went to Uttoxeter on his next start and ran into Blackjack Magic, this season’s Badger Beer Handicap Chase winner, over two-and-a-half miles and even had Make Me A Believer back in third, a horse who won nicely on seasonal reappearance earlier this month. 

    With race fitness on his side thanks to a credible fourth to Djelo and Master Chewy at Aintree in a contest that had omitted fences, he should go well for Dan and Harry Skelton. 

     

    2:05 Ascot – Theatre Glory @ 2/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win 

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    Moving over to Ascot, the Grade 2 Coral Hurdle looks like an open contest this year with Theatre Glory making her seasonal reappearance. 

    The six-year-old by Fame And Glory progressed nicely last season to score a Listed hurdle at Warwick by 11 lengths before her creditable sixth in the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. 

    Following that run, she finished a good third to Knappers Hill in the Grade 2 Select Hurdle at Sandown with Goshen, who reopposes today, in second. 

    Gary Moore’s loveable seven-year-old gave away nine pounds in weight that day and the same will occur today, though he tends to come on for his first run of the season whereas Theatre Glory can run well when fresh. 

    With the Nicky Henderson yard in red-hot form – 11 winners from his last 31 runners – now looks like a good time to catch this progressive mare on an important day for Seven Barrows. 

     

    2:40 Ascot – Lassue @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win 

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    Finally, rounding off this week’s Best Of Bets piece is a fancy from Ascot as Lassue looks a standout bet in the three-mile mares’ handicap hurdle. 

    Fergal O’Brien’s seven-year-old returned to the track after a 629-day break to score at Chepstow last month under Jack Hogan, beating Fortuna Ligna who reopposes today. 

    That was a tidy run off such a long break on her first start at three miles, so she is a proven stayer over this trip. 

    Furthermore, her first outing of the season was her handicap debut off a mark of 110 and with just four extra pounds today, it’s reasonable to say she could still be well-handicapped. 

    With ground on her side, Lassue is an obvious play and with Fergal O’Brien hoping for success at Haydock in the big handicap of the day, Ravenswell Frarm could be on for a memorable across-the-card double.