Cheltenham 2026 Preview: Shishkin and Ryanair Hopes

The Ryanair Chase will again draw attention to high-class staying chasers and the stories behind them, chief among them Shishkin’s comeback narrative. This preview adds context to form, tactics and marketplace dynamics for punters seeking an informed view ahead of Cheltenham week.

Form, fitness and prep ahead of the Ryanair Chase

Understanding recent runs, training reports and the impact of wind surgery gives a clearer picture of how Shishkin shapes up against rivals at Cheltenham. We outline the evidence and scenarios that matter to racegoers and bettors who want fact-based analysis rather than hype.

Assessing Shishkin’s recent Ascot performance metrics

Shishkin’s 16-length victory at Ascot was visually dominant and statistically notable for sectionals and closing speed compared with his peers. That run suggests the gelding regained both confidence and race rhythm after surgery and a time off the track.

Form analysts will want to compare pace maps and finishing splits from Ascot with likely Cheltenham race tempo to estimate whether the performance will translate to Prestbury Park’s unique undulations. These measures are useful for placing Shishkin relative to rivals over the Ryanair trip.

Comparing likely Ryanair rivals: Blue Lord and Allaho

Blue Lord brings consistent form and a high cruising speed, which could test Shishkin if the race unfolds at a genuine gallop that exposes stamina limits. Allaho has shown improvement and a preference for well-run contests, making him a serious contender if ground and tempo suit.

Assessing head-to-head trends, recent course form and race shape projections helps identify which rival is most likely to challenge Shishkin on the day. This comparative view supports value-seeking approaches rather than chasing headline prices.

Ground, weather and how they affect Cheltenham form

Cheltenham’s microclimate means that a small drop in temperature or a spell of rain can change the race narrative and advantage different types of chasers. Shishkin’s recent wins came on quicker turf, so a softer Cheltenham surface would require careful reassessment of his chances.

Monitoring official going reports, weather forecasts and stable comments in the 48 hours before the race is essential for a fact-based selection. Those factors should influence stake sizing and whether alternatives offer clearer value under changed conditions.

Tactical scenarios the Ryanair Chase might unfold

The Ryanair can be won by front-runners who control tempo or by well-positioned closers who pick off leaders late, depending on the early pace and ground. Shishkin’s tactical versatility since his return increases the permutations to consider when modelling likely race outcomes.

Map the race in terms of likely leaders, mid-division pressure and late swingers to identify horses that will be advantaged under each scenario. This scenario planning supports more disciplined staking and reduces reliance on single-price conjecture.

Trainer notes and Henderson’s selection patterns

Nicky Henderson’s historical patterns for Cheltenham entries and his approach to placing horses over specific Festival days provide useful signals on how his yard prioritises targets. He tends to focus on match fitness and peaking a horse for its principal objective, which matters when evaluating form curves.

Consider Henderson’s comments, schooling reports and stablemate runs as part of a broader evidence set rather than in isolation. That context helps distinguish genuine readiness from a short-term headline designed for media consumption.

How the market reacts to big returns and form shifts

The betting market responds quickly to high-profile comeback wins, with odds often shortening for perceived superior stocks like Shishkin after a commanding run. Market movement is informative but should be weighed against independent form analysis to avoid value erosion.

Traders’ early money and late support can indicate confidence levels but are not substitutes for assessing race shape, ground and health reports. Use market information as one input among many in a disciplined betting plan.

What victory at Cheltenham would mean for Shishkin

A Cheltenham success would represent redemption for the gelding and confirm his recovery from surgery in a high-pressure Championship environment. The sporting significance would be substantial for connections and supporters without implying financial certainty for anyone backing him.

How wind surgery could have changed his performance

Wind surgery can materially improve a horse’s breathing efficiency and race-day stamina, which may explain the marked uplift in Shishkin’s recent finishing speed. Any interpretation of post-surgery runs should balance optimism with skepticism until repeated evidence accumulates.

Betting approach: research, value and stake management

Prioritise research into pace maps, jockey bookings and stable form, and seek value rather than short-priced certainty when considering Ryanair wagers. Adopt a stake management plan that aligns with your risk tolerance and treats betting as entertainment rather than a revenue source.

Responsible gambling guidance for Cheltenham racegoers

Betting is for adults aged 18 and over only and should be undertaken responsibly with limits on time and money. If wagering, set strict stakes, use bookmaker controls and avoid chasing losses or viewing betting as a solution to financial issues.

As the days tick down of the final week before Cheltenham, we continue our festival feature with this year’s Cheltenham quintet.

Picture the scene: Ascot 2022. After winning in the Clarence House over Energumene, all was well with Shishkin.

Installed as 5/6f for the Queen Mother Champion Chase and seeking an 11th-straight victory, nothing could stop Nico De Boinville and the Irish gelding.

However, Cheltenham 2022 saw it all fall flat after being pulled up when failing to make the trip.

But now having roared back with an emphatic win a Ascot last month, is Shishkin primed for glorious redemption in the Ryanair Chase?

Shishkin odyssey

At the end of March, Shishkin will have been a thoroughbred racing horse for five years.

In that time, Nicky Henderson has ran out his gelding a total of 17 times.

During that period, just twice has the horse failed to finish a race and in only two further races has victory not been achieved.

It was in January 2020, where the tale of greatness began.

Winning the British Racing Novices’ Hurdle, the then 6yo romped to an 11-length victory.

The Supreme Novices’ at Cheltenham soon followed and after stringing three more wins together, Shishkin returned to Gloucestershire in 2021.

A hot favourite for the Arkle, his winning margin over Eldorado Allen was a length further than the year before. Shishkin was the real deal. Victory on Grand National weekend then capped a stunning season.

Champion Hurdle woe; surgery

Then, inexplicably, the story began to unravel.

Unbeaten since a Newbury fall at the end of 2019, Shishkin laboured on softer turf in last year’s Champion Chase. For want of a better phrase, everything was ‘off’.

Struggling with the jumps and keeping pace, Shishkin was pulled up after the eighth flight.

Somewhat sore from his no-show, trainer Nicky Henderson held back for his return until December only for his 9yo to sustain an injury.

Taking a kick in the preamble before the Tingle Creek at Sandown, Shishkin came third behind both Edwardstone and Greanateen.

Adding salt to the wounds, it was then determined wind surgery would be required.

After such certainty, suddenly everything was in up in the air. Going under the knife on January 5 however, Shishkin was raring to go.

Which is why at Ascot only a few weeks ago it was joyous to see the returning conqueror slay the field.

Coasting to a 16-length win over Pic D’Orhy, Shishkin was back.

Unfinished business

Which brings us full circle. The Shishkin camp are keen to erase last year’s woes.

With the Ryanair now in the crosshairs, Blue Lord and the improving Allaho are set to be the main rivals.

Expected to go off once again a well-backed favourite, it won’t escape punters, pundits and indeed his trainer and owners alike though, that the pressure is back on.

His backers might be anxiously glancing at the current forecast and drop in temperatures but it does feel like Shishkin has unfinished business to resolve.

Victory on the Thursday of Cheltenham week this year would be oh so sweet for a horse on a mission.

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FAQs about Shishkin and the Ryanair Chase

Is Shishkin fit to run after wind surgery?

Post-surgery returns suggest improved breathing and race performance, but fitness should be confirmed by stable reports and the horse’s final gallop. Always consider the most recent evidence rather than a single run when forming a view.

Who are the main rivals to Shishkin in the Ryanair Chase?

Blue Lord and Allaho are frequently mentioned as leading rivals, each with form lines that could challenge depending on pace and ground. Compare their recent runs and Cheltenham track records before making any selection.

How much does ground affect Shishkin’s chance?

Ground conditions are important; Shishkin has shown his best on quicker turf and heavy or soft ground could reduce his advantage. Check going reports and market reaction in the build-up to the race.

What tactical rides might help or hinder his chance?

A patient ride that conserves energy for a strong finish suits Shishkin’s profile, though a tactical switch to lead is possible if pace is slow. Jockey decisions on the day should be factored into selection thinking.

How should I manage stakes for Cheltenham betting?

Use sensible stake sizing based on a fixed percentage of a gambling budget and avoid stake escalation after losses. Betting should be entertainment for those aged 18+, not an income strategy.

Where can I compare bookmaker offers and free bets?

We provide an independent comparison of bookmaker terms and new customer free bet offers to help inform your choices. Always read terms and gamble responsibly if you are 18 or over.

What resources help with last-minute Cheltenham decisions?

Check racecards, official going, late declarations and stable comments within 24 hours of racing for the most relevant updates. Use these facts to adjust selections and stakes rather than relying on emotion.

How do I know if betting is becoming a problem?

If you find yourself betting more than planned, chasing losses or feeling distressed about gambling, seek help and use self-exclusion tools provided by operators. Support is available via organisations such as BeGambleAware.