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Tag: cheltenham festival

  • Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day Four Selections

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day Four Selections

    Cheltenham. It’s the biggest Festival of the year, where punters on both sides of the Irish Sea make the pilgrimage to the heart of the Cotswolds, in the shadow of Cleeve Hill, for four days of unrivalled racing pleasure. Day Four sees the return of the king, Galopin Des Champs. He looks destined for a third win in the race, can he do it?

    Big Race View

    Starting with the first of three Grade One’s on day four and there are three very fancied runners. But I’m voting for East India Dock, who has been ultra-impressive in three wins this season, including two at Cheltenham at double figure margins. The latter was considered a “bad” performance by James Owen, yet he trounced the field by 10L. He has the beating of the other two, considering Lulamba’s form from Ascot has been decimated and Hello Neighbour has never looked that impressive. East India Dock has and bids for that coveted Cheltenham hat-trick.

    Blue Lemons also looks one to side with for the future and could put up a big performance here. Transferred from the flat well to win by 3L at Gowran Park on hurdles debut. Interestingly bred by Blue Point and speed will be key in this race, and he should have plenty.

    Big Race Bet: Triumph Hurdle (Grade One) – East India Dock @ 9/4 (William Hill), Blue Lemons e/w @ 12/1 (General)

    Excellent at Each-way

    The Albert Bartlett is such a tricky novice hurdle to predict at Cheltenham. Nine of the last 10 winners have been at double-figure prices, so each-way picks often win. Jax Junior gets my vote in this contest at an each-way angle. He won two novice hurdles at Doncaster and Ascot by double digits before just losing at Huntingdon to Califet En Vol in the Listed Sidney Banks. The runner-up has won subsequently and looked as though he wanted more trip that day. Not a bad contender.

    Excellent Each-way bet: Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle (Grade One) – Jax Junior e/w @ 33/1 (William Hill)

    Handy Handicap Guide

    The final race of the Cheltenham Festival is one full of plot jobs. None more obvious than Kopeck De Mee for Mullins and JP. But another plot job that must be considered is Wodhooh. She blitzed the field over course and distance in December on her only start this season. The form from that race has seen the second, third and fourth placed horses all win subsequently. It’s amazing that she is unbeaten, but she’s showed no signs of weakness and looks to only get better.

    No Questions Asked may benefit from a good run from Jax Junior in the Albert Bartlett, but he passed him in the Listed Sidney Banks before scoring by 2L against a good horse in John Barbour at Ludlow. He remains on the same handicap mark and can deliver another big performance for the Pauling team.

    Minella Sixo has had a busy old season. Finished third in a Grade Two and second in a Grade Three. He fell when making some progress in a Pertemps qualifier at Haydock which is why we see him back down in trip. He placed over this trip on the Old Course back in October behind Potters Charm and will enjoy this ground. Plus the Elliott team will be desperate for a winner at Cheltenham.

    Handy Handicap Bets: Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle – Wodhooh @ 5/1 (William Hill), No Questions Asked e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill, Unibet, Boylesports), Minella Sixo e/w @ 25/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Selections:

    13:20 – Triumph Hurdle (Grade One) – EAST INDIA DOCK @ 9/4 (William Hill), Blue Lemons e/w @ 12/1 (General)

    14:00 – County Handicap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – McLaurey @ 7/1 (Unibet), Ndaawi e/w @ 20/1 (Unibet), Cracking Rhapsody e/w @ 50/1 (Unibet)

    14:40 – Mares Chase (Grade Two) – Dinoblue @ 11/10 (General)

    15:20 – Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle (Grade One) – The Big Westerner @ 5/1 (William Hill, BetVictor), JAX JUNIOR E/W @ 33/1 (William Hill)

    16:00 – CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP (GRADE ONE) – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS @ 4/7 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred)

    16:40 – Hunters’ Chase – Angels Dawn @ 100/30 (BetVictor), Bardenstown Lad e/w @ 40/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    17:20 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle – Wodhooh @ 5/1 (William Hill), No Questions Asked e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill, Unibet, Boylesports), Minella Sixo e/w @ 25/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Best of Luck!

  • Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day Three Selections

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day Three Selections

    Cheltenham. It’s the biggest Festival of the year, where punters on both sides of the Irish Sea make the pilgrimage to the heart of the Cotswolds, in the shadow of Cleeve Hill, for four days of unrivalled racing pleasure. Day Three was another day for the bookies and now it’s the turn of possibly the trickiest day of the week, with no less than four handicaps and a tricky Grade Two novice hurdle.

    Big Race View

    The feature race on the card should have an odds-on favourite but weirdly has probably the longest price of the fancied runners this week. Teahupoo is a two-time Cheltenham Festival Stayers’ Hurdle winner and looks to take advantage of a weak division yet again. He hasn’t been seen since the Hatton’s Grace but the three-mile hurdles since haven’t thrown up any potential dangers. Plus, the from has been franked by Lossiemouth winning on Tuesday. He’ll be hard to pass and has been prepared in the right way again.

    Big Race Bet: Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade One) – Teahupoo @ 13/8 (William Hill)

    Excellent at Each-way

    I’m a little dumbfounded as to why G2 winner Hollygrove Cha Cha is the price she is. She’s won five of her six starts, only beaten by the reopposing Jubilee Alpha at Taunton. She hung on by a short-head to win the Jane Seymour which came on unsuitable ground, and good-to-soft will be better for her, plus the new course at Cheltenham may suit her running style. Jamie Snowden is a dual Cheltenham Festival winner and won this race with You Wear It Well and is currently operating at a 50% strike rate. It should only be a matter of time before he returns to the winners enclosure, when this mare gets a top-four finish.

    Excellent Each-way bet: Mares Novice’s Hurdle (Grade Two) – Hollygrove Cha Cha e/w @ 28/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Handy Handicap Guide

    The Pertemps can often throw up an upset, but the market should be well-watched for any potential movers late on.

    Win Some Lose Some won a qualifier over Christmas at Leopardstown by 0.75L and has been left alone since then. Against Jeriko du Reponet, in the same ownership, he has more form over this trip and is the ride of Mark Wlash, which is eye-catching. He’ll look to relish this trip once more and will not mind the ground one bit. A bit of luck in running will see him bang there. JP McManus is already having a wonderful Cheltenham, again.

    Bugise Seagull started the year off chasing and didn’t look too bad. But eventually reverted to hurdles where he placed twice including in a qualifier at Musselburgh. If you further back to his nvoice form he finished third in a Grade One behind at certain Brighterdaysahead at Aintree, nosing off Coral Cup winner Jimmy Du Seuil both who have fanked the form brilliantly. Dismiss at your peril.

    Top weight Thomas Mor is right down in the market but holds a decent chance. He finished fifth in the 2023 Albert Bartlett before returning with a bang to win a qualifier at Wincanton on Boxing Day. He then disappointed on first chasing start, but second that day at Doncaster was Rock My Way, who finished second in the National Hunt Chase. Another one who should get back in.

    Handy Handicap Bets: Pertemps Final (Premier Handicap) – Win Some Lose Some @ 15/2 (William Hill, Unibet), Bugise Seagull e/w @ 33/1 (William Hill, BetVictor), Thomas Mor e/w @ 50/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet)

    Selections:

    13:20 – Mares Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Jubilee Alpha @ 11/1 (William Hill), HOLLYGROVE CHA CHA E/W @ 28/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    14:00 – Jack Richards Novice’s Chase (Grade Two) – Asian Master @ 8/1 (William Hill), Pic Roc e/w @ 11/1 (Betfred)

    14:40 – Pertemps Final (Premier Handicap) – WIN SOME LOSE SOME @ 15/2 (William Hill, Unibet), Bugise Seagull e/w @ 33/1 (William Hill, BetVictor), Thomas Mor e/w @ 50/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet)

    15:20 – Ryanair Chase (Grade One) – Fact To File @ 5/4 (General)

    16:00 – Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade One) – TEAHUPOO @ 13/8 (William Hill)

    16:40 – Plate Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Masaccio @ 8/1 (General), Gemirande e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill, Unibet, Betfred), La Malmason e/w @ 25/1 (William Hill)

    17:20 – Kim Muir Handicap Chase – Johnnywho @ 6/1 (William Hill), Sa Majeste e/w @ 9/1 (William Hill), Git Maker e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Best of Luck!

  • Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day Two Selections

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day Two Selections

    It’s the biggest Festival of the year, where punters on both sides of the Irish Sea make the pilgrimage to the heart of the Cotswolds, in the shadow of Cleeve Hill, for four days of unrivalled racing pleasure. Day Two surely can’t match the drama and thrills of day one, but there’s plenty more stars on show on another action-packed card.

    Big Race View

    Once again we turn to the first race of the day, and a brilliant betting heat between the top two. Final Demand looked imperious at the Dublin Racing Festival, whilst The New Lion asserted his dominance on the novice division by winning the Challow.

    My vote goes to Final Demand, on one simple trend. No Challow winner has won at the Cheltenham Festival since Wichita Lineman in 2007. That’s a pretty long absence. Also Final Demand looked head and shoulders above most novice hurdlers and Leopardstown and will look to rely on his stamina getting the better of the others. He’s a three-miler in time and this is a perfect layup in his novice career.

    At a big price, Potters Charm disappointed here on Trials Day, but should have been saved for this test however the run will not have done him any harm He’s very speedy but showed his stamina winning over course and distance in December. He’s a Grade One winner too in this field and must be respected.

    Big Race Bet: Turners Novice’s Hurdle (Grade One) – Final Demand @ 6/4 (General), Potters Charm e/w @ 14/1 (General)

    Excellent at Each-way

    It’s hard to really put a finger on a good each-way bet at a price. But one that stuck out was Stellar Story in the Brown Advisory. He won last year’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, is a Grade Two winner over fences at Punchestown and was only downed by a neck to Better Days Ahead at Navan previously. Barring the Long Distance Novice Chase, he’s proven to be consistent over fences and can easily run in for a place behind Ballyburn.

    Excellent Each-way bet: Brown Advisory Novice’s Chase (Grade One) – Stellar Story e/w @ 12/1 (General)

    Handy Handicap Guide

    The Coral Cup is probably the messiest and hardest race to predict at the Festival. But following the trends can often find you the winner in such a packed field

    Dan Skelton will look to win this for a third year, but I prefer Impose Toi who’s only had the one run, but that’s deemed to be enough for the Henderson team. He’s won at Cheltneham before over two miles and has taken the step up to two-and-a-half miles well, with one win and one third. He wears cheekpieces for the first time, which is a major positive and can see him battle it out at the finish.

    Sandor Clegane never set the world alight chasing but his return to hurdling has also been somewhat indifferent. However he’s been running at Grade One and Two level and looks to have longed for a competitive handicap in my opinion. And with the form franked in the G2 Galmoy Hurdle by Thedevilscoachman, he can run very nicely into fourth spot or even better.

    Sa Fureur made an unusual move after winning the Foxrock Handicap Chas eat Navan in December. He switched to hurdles for a Premier Handicap Hurdle at Christmas, which he disappointed in. But scroll back through his form and you will see he finished fourth in the Grand Annual last year and has ran in to plenty of talented horses on the way. Notably, the ride of Jack Kennedy. Cannot be discounted

    Handy Handicap Bets: Coral Cup (Premier Handicap) – Impose Toi @ 17/2 (William Hill), Sandor Clegane e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill), Sa Fureur e/w @ 25/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Selections:

    13:20 – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (Grade One) – FINAL DEMAND @ 6/4 (General), Potters Charm e/w @ 14/1 (General)

    14:00 – Brown Advisory Novice’s Chase (Grade One) – Ballyburn @ 8/11 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports), STELLAR STORY E/W @ 12/1 (General)

    14:40 – Coral Cup (Premier Handicap) – Impose Toi @ 17/2 (William Hill), Sandor Clegane e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill), Sa Fureur e/w @ 25/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    15:20 – Cross Country Chase – Stumptown @ 11/4 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    16:00 – Champion Chase (Grade One) – Jonbon @ 10/11 (William Hill), Jonbon/Energumene/Captain Guinness tricast

    16:40 – Grand Annual (Premier H’cap) – American Mike @ 12/1 (General), Trapain Law @ 16/1 (William Hill), General Medrano e/w @ 20/1 (William Hill)

    17:20 – Champion Bumper (Grade One) – Bambino Fever @ 11/2 (General), Aqua Force e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill), Fortune De Mer e/w @ 20/1 (General)

    Best of Luck!

  • Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day One Selections

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day One Selections

    Cheltenham. It’s the biggest Festival of the year, where punters on both sides of the Irish Sea make the pilgrimage to the heart of the Cotswolds, in the shadow of Cleeve Hill, four four days of unrivalled racing pleasure. Day One looks to be a bonanza day for punters with a plethora of stars, both old and new, on show.

    Big Race View

    Whilst I could take a look at how many lengths Constitution Hill, Lossiemouth or Majborough will win by, I’m focussing on the longest priced favourite of the fab four at Cheltenham today, Kopek Des Bordes. His run at the Dublin Racing Festival was impressive to say the least, but still had a slight twitch of a novice about him. That’s why Willie Mullins has elected to give him a first-time hood, which to stat-loving punters is a death knell. Mullins and first-time headgear do not go well together, but Kopek Des Bordes is bigger than that. He looks fluent and is most feared by those in the Supreme field. He’ll only get shorter on the day.

    Aside from Romeo Coolio, at an each-way angle I think Tripoli Flyer has to come into the conversation. He’s a Grade Two winner, winning the Dovecote at Kempton by no less than seven-and-a-half lengths. That was his shortest winning hurdles distance. The ground will be to his liking, some Irish opponents may have wanted it a little softer. If he can iron out some of his jumping, he won’t be far away.

    Big Race Bet: Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novice’s Hurdle (Grade One) – Kopek Des Bordes @ 11/10 (William Hill), Tripoli Flyer e/w @ 25/1 (General)

    Excellent at Each-way

    Looking at the Mares Hurdle, Lossiemouth is possibly the most vulnerable of the fab four on Tuesday. And there’s one consistent runner I had my eye on to win the race, if Lossiemouth went to the Champion Hurdle. July Flower for the Henry de Bromhead team has spent most of her time in France, and placed at Grade One level. But on most recent Irish start, was an impressive four length winner ahead of Jetara and World Of Fortunes, both winning subsequently in different Doncaster races. Now the heavyweight mare Lossiemouth has barged in, she looks an attractive each-way bet on day one.

    Excellent Each-way bet: Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade One) – July Flower e/w @ 9/1 (General)

    Handy Handicap Guide

    The best handicap race of the week at Cheltenham, in my opinion, is the Ultima. And the Brits have their best chance of securing this race once again.

    The favourite, The Changing Man, ran an excellent race at Ascot, even if the favourite fell at the second fence, he still looked imperious as he jumped his fences and was hardly lent upon to extend from his rivals. He’s more experience than most novices and has ran a consistent season as well. This should put the cherry on top for what is a brilliant horse in the correct race.

    Somehow, you can’t ignore course and distance winners at the Festival. Broadway Boy is straight into that category and aims for a first win this season. He wasn’t the greatest jumper last time out on Cheltenham Trials Day, but ignore that run to see he’s placed twice in two hot handicaps, including the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. He looks to have been laid out for this race by the Twiston-Davies team and it would be foolish to ignore him.

    And one more to note, Henry’s Friend races for one of the most successful partnerships this season, Ben Jones and Ben Pauling. Not many Saturday’s have gone by this season without them having a winner or two and a Festival win will confirm just what a stellar season they’ve had. Henry’s Friend was an impressive winner of the Mandarin Chase at Newbury following a fifth in the Coral Gold Cup. He’s not been seen since and this looks like another race laid out for him.

    Handy Handicap Bets: Ultima Handicap Chas (Premier H’cap) – The Changing Man @ 15/2 (William Hill), Broadway Boy e/w @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Unibet), Henry’s Friend e/w @ 12/1 (BetVictor)

    Selections:

    13:20 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade One) – Kopek Des Bordes @ 11/10 (William Hill), Tripoli Flyer e/w @ 25/1 (General)

    14:00 – Arkle Challenge Trophy (Grade One) – Majborough @ 8/15 (General)

    14:40 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – The Changing Man @ 15/2 (William Hill), Broadway Boy e/w @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Unibet), Henry’s Friend e/w @ 12/1 (BetVictor)

    15:20 – Mares’ Hurdle (Grade One) – Lossiemouth @ 4/6 (General), JULY FLOWER E/W @ 9/1 (General)

    16:00 – Champion Hurdle (Grade One) – Constitution Hill to win by 3+ lengths @ 11/10 (William Hill)

    16:40 – Fred Winter Juvenile H’cap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – Puturhandstogether @ 15/2 (William Hill), Murcia e/w @ 12/1 (General), Wendrock e/w @ 18/1 (William Hill)

    17:20 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase – Captain Cody @ 17/2 (William Hill, Unibet), Stuzzkini e/w @ 28/1 (William Hill), Rock My Way e/w @ 50/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Best of Luck!

  • Cheltenham October Meeting Day 1 | A Charming Plan

    Cheltenham October Meeting Day 1 | A Charming Plan

    It almost feels like last week since Rebel Dawn Rising won the 2m4f hunters’ chase at Prestbury Park in May, but the Flat season is in the past now and the Cheltenham October meeting is on our agenda.

    Friday kicks off another campaign at the home of jumps racing, and plenty of the races look very interesting.

    Kalpana helped eat into the loss this column took at Chepstow the week prior, so let’s hope Cheltenham is equally as kind to us.

     

    2:25 Cheltenham – Matata @ 9/4 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Although his price has come in since we recorded the Only Fools Love Horses preview, the case for Matata remains in the third race of the day.

    His last handicap run came at the course on New Year’s Day when second to Libberty Lane.

    The winner has since finished second in the Grand Annual and third in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase, and Matata made a mistake at the last fence which potentially cost him the race.

    The form of his second in the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase also looks good as Master Chewy, the fourth, was second to Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase two starts later.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old won on seasonal debut last year on good to soft ground and won on good ground in a novice handicap hurdle, so conditions should suit.

    Off 147, just five pounds higher than his mark when second to Libberty Lane, he has a good chance here.

     

    2:25 Cheltenham – Arclight @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    As much as Matata holds strong claims, the case for Arclight is a makeable one in the conditions.

    Nicky Henderson’s mare won on seasonal reappearance last season, a race that occurred on good ground, and the form of beating Mayhem Mya (improved eight pounds since) and Carole’s Pass (now rated 132) from her Listed Exeter success is strong.

    Her final win two starts ago occurred at Wincanton where he beat Marsh Wren, a subsequent two-time winner and Grade 2 Mares’ Chase third, which again looks like nice form for a horse rated 136.

    Back in handicap company, she is of interest.

     

    3:35 Cheltenham – Planned Paradise @ 14/1 with SkyBet (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    I can’t see why Planned Paradise won’t run a big race in the amateur jockeys’ handicap chase at Cheltenham on Friday.

    Just five starts ago in July, he dotted up at Perth off 107 (running to an RPR of 128) over 2m4f.

    He comes into Cheltenham this weekend off just a five-pound higher mark, and Gina Andrews choosing to ride him is worth noting.

    She rode Strictlyadancer when fourth in this race last year, but he is partnered by Edward Vaughan this year instead.

    Although Planned Paradise’s last win came over 2m4f, he ran into a clearly well-handicapped Get Up Much over 3m1f at Warwick on his last start and has run two good races over 3m5f before.

    The latest occurred at Fakenham in May when second, though he was also a runner-up to Quick Wave in the 2022 London National Handicap Chase off 119.

    He’ll like the ground, he has race fitness on his side, and is on a workable mark.

     

    4:10 Cheltenham – Potters Charm @ 7/4 with Paddy Power – 2pt Win

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    The local track Worcester saw Potters Charm sprint clear on hurdles debut last month, and I thought the performance was impressive.

    Chancycourt, who was already race-fit, is a fine horse for Fergal O’Brien and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ five-year-old won easily.

    He jumped nicely, and although he was rallied along at the end, I thought his turn of foot in the final half a furlong deserved plenty of respect.

    The better ground is a new condition he’ll have to face, but his dam’s half-brother, Earth King, won his three jumps races on good and good to soft.

    Connections have Grade 1 aspirations with him, and I hope he can continue that progression.

     

    4:45 Cheltenham – Jilaijone @ 10/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    David Pipe has landed a few nice races recently, notably at Chepstow two weeks ago, and he might have lined-up Jilaijone for the conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle.

    His mark of 119 is one pound higher than his official rating when second at Chepstow in October 2023, a race that came before his valiant second to Blueking d’Oroux in the Masterson Holdings Hurdle over course and distance.

    The winner has a rating of 150 now having won a Grade 2 subsequently, so the form looks strong and he’ll handle the good ground.

    Gearoid Harney claims a further six pounds off his back as well, so this improving five-year-old looks like an unexposed type here.

  • Punchestown Festival Day 4 | A Mighty chance for Brides Hill

    Punchestown Festival Day 4 | A Mighty chance for Brides Hill

    The third day of the 2024 Punchestown Festival began with a brilliant story thanks to Singing Banjo in the La Touche Cup, but the subsequent fatal injuries sustained by Kilbeg King and Sire Du Berlais marred the day.

    Sire Du Berlais was a warrior of a horse – his Cheltenham Festival record speaks for itself – and Kilbeg King was a personal favourite of mine who held plenty of ability and potential. Thoughts are truly with those closest to these horses.

    As for the column, from the three bets put up, we returned profit on the day as Will Do placed in the three-mile handicap hurdle at 33/1.

    I did initially think Buddy One had also returned place money after his run in the Grade 1 Champion Stayers Hurdle, but Home By The Lee collared him for third on the line.

    Still, let’s roll on to the fourth day of the Punchestown Festival.

     

    3:00 Newmarket – Zouky @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    Starting at Newmarket rather than Punchestown, Zouky is worth looking at in the seven-furlong handicap on her second start of the season.

    Having run well over a mile on the all-weather at Kempton last month, she’ll come on for that and will appreciate a return to the turf.

    The four-year-old by Zoustar performed well in Listed company on two occasions last season when clashing with the likes of Queen Aminatu, Potapova, Breege, and Nine Tenths.

    However, it’s not just this form that looks good as she was second off 87 in a Doncaster handicap in September, a race that has seen Dark Thirty come out of and win subsequently.

    Furthermore, Poet Master (the winner) has improved since as shown by his nice handicap success at Newmarket earlier this year off a mark of 100.

    All in all, she has a good chance here back at seven furlongs.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – Flanking Maneuver @ 28/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The first handicap race of the day from Punchestown is very interesting, and a few horses made it onto the shortlist, but Flanking Maneuver is the one I’m siding with at the prices.

    Despite his age of nine, the Beat Hollow gelding is relatively lightly raced due to his 760 days away from the track between January 2021 and February 2023, but he showed his well-being in the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase last year.

    That race has worked out as Mahler Mission would have gone close in the 2023 Grade 2 National Hunt Chase if not for falling and he finished second in the Coral Gold Cup after that

    He has dipped his hoof into Grade 1 company on two occasions this season, one of which in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase where he finished fourth and the other came on his last start in the WillowWarm Gold Cup.

    Arguably, he has excuses for both the runs as in the former, he travelled well but found three miles on bottomless ground a bit tough at the end, and he was badly hampered by a faller on his latest start.

    A rating of 134 is very handy when considering the excuses for his recent disappointing efforts.

     

    4:50 Punchestown – Brides Hill @ 7/4 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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    Regular viewers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel or my X page already know the love I have for Brides Hill, and today is where she gets her preferred conditions.

    She was a non-runner at Cheltenham due to the soft conditions, so a return to a sounder surface will suit her.

    Her ability is apparent, especially on decent ground when going right-handed, and with Allegorie De Vassy’s potential preference for a slower surface, that puts Brides Hill ahead of her in my mind.

     

    5:25 Punchestown – Lifetime Ambition @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    When looking at any hunter chases at the big meetings, class tends to prevail and the nine-year-old Lifetime Ambition is one who still retains that old spark.

    The Kapgarde gelding was a decent performer for Jessica Harrington as a novice and handicap chaser – notably when second to Capodanno in the 2022 Grade 1 Dooley Insurance Champion Novice Chase – but he switched to point-to-points in October 2023.

    Since that switch, four of his last six races resulted in a win and his most recent success came at Cork during an 11-length victory.

    He has form on better ground and he is a quality horse, which is why he should go well on Friday.

     

    7:05 Punchestown – Mighty Bandit @ 18/1 with Bet365 (four places) – 1pt EW

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    Mighty Bandit has a classic profile of a horse I like to back in races like this and the 18/1 available has helped sweeten the deal on why I’m with him.

    The four-year-old by Order Of St George gets six pounds from his elders and is arguably still unexposed as he’s had just three runs, one of which was successful.

    That came on debut at Punchestown when trained by Gordon Elliott as he beat Lark In The Morning by nine lengths, a good piece of form considering Harsh – an impressive handicap hurdle winner earlier in the week – was back in third.

    After that, he went into Grade 2 Mercedes-Benz South Dublin Juvenile Hurdle as the 13/8 favourite but could only manage ninth. Admittedly, that was disappointing, but his wind was seemingly the issue as he had a wind-op soon after.

    Now with Warren Greatrex, he ran in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival on his first start for a while, so he’s likely to come on for that and a return to a sounder surface at an easier track will benefit him.

    He has to bounce back, and that’s why his price is so big, but the time of his Punchestown victory in November stacks up very well against the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle won by State Man (State Man was carrying 12lbs more) and he can outrun his odds.

  • Scottish Grand National Day | Time to Rally

    Scottish Grand National Day | Time to Rally

    Aintree is now firmly in the rearview mirror, and as the 2023/24 National Hunt Season comes to a close, it’s time to take a look at the races on Scottish Grand National Day.

    Last week’s Aintree Grand National meeting was successful for the column as we achieved 11.95pts of profit, helping to bring the overall tally since the start of March to 3.35pts of profit.

    No doubt, the last few months haven’t reeled in a mountain of success, but let’s hope this run of form can continue.

     

    1:15 Ayr – Persian Time @ 6/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Sans Bruit did the job for us at Aintree and for that, we can only offer our thanks, but a 10lb hike for the success is steep as he beat horses who were towards the top of their handicap mark after getting an easy lead from the front.

    He demands respect, but Persian Time is a horse who might have a few pounds over the handicapper.

    The six-year-old has shown his class this season as he’s won twice and finished second once, though that defeat came at the hands of Djelo at Newbury on his first run of the season, and Djelo has since improved 12lbs and won a Grade 2.

    Although he benefitted from an Authorised Speed fall at Ascot, Homme Public (the runner-up) won a valuable race on his next start to frank the form

    Furthermore, both Djelo and Soul Icon – the horse he beat on his latest start at Kempton when the Nicky Henderson yard was massively out of form – have good form with Master Chewy, a horse who came a head away from beating Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree.

    That bodes well for Persian Time, and with his form at the track from last season’s second in a handicap hurdle, he is a nice unexposed type running off 136.

     

    1:50 Ayr – Deeper Blue @ 7/1 with William Hill & Maclaine @ 9/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW for both

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    The £50,000 CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase has an interesting feel about it this year as the favourite is as big as 13/2.

    However, I’m splitting my stakes here as I want both Deeper Blue and Maclaine on my side.

    Starting with the former, he represents the on-fire Harry Fry yard (40% strike rate over the last two weeks) and sports first-time cheekpieces, something Fry has a good record with.

    The eight-year-old has tended to race a bit behind the bridle this season – so the cheekpieces make sense – but his second to Henry’s Friend when receiving just 1lb looks like good form as the winner won the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase on his next start.

    Furthermore, Rock My Way was five lengths behind in third and he ran into Makin’yourmindup on his next start; Makin’yourmindup won after that and then ran into a well-handicapped Cap Du Nord.

    Deeper Blue was beaten by a well-handicapped Neon Moon on his last start, but he sprinted well clear of the third and he looks ready to put in another big effort here.

    However, a horse that carries eight pounds less is Maclaine, looking to back up from last month’s facile Newbury success.

    The improving seven-year-old prefers better ground, but he comes from a family of soft ground lovers, so the described soft ground at Ayr (plus a day of dry weather) should be okay.

    The manner of his victory at Newbury was impressive – one of a progressive horse – and he ran into Prairie Wolf at Doncaster in December.

    Prairie Wolf has since finished fourth to Ginny’s Destiny at Cheltenham and then won twice more, so the form of that race is solid.

     

    2:05 Newbury – Relief Rally @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    The big question with Relief Rally in the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes is whether will she stay seven furlongs, and that’s why her price is probably bigger than it should be.

    She was a small two-year-old and showed plenty of speed, but a lot went wrong for her at York on her first start at six furlongs and she had to battle late on to get up by a length.

    That showed promise of staying further to my eye, and you don’t have to go that far back through her pedigree to find horses who won over 1m1f and even went two-mile hurdling.

    I think this filly by Kodiac is riddled with ability, and although there is doubt over whether she has trained-on to become a proper three-year-old, this is a beatable field on all known pieces of form.

     

    4:10 Ayr – Masaccio @ 10/3 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Regular watchers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel will know my confidence behind Masaccio for the 2m4f handicap hurdle at Aintree. Still, as it turns out, it was probably a good idea to skip Aintree.

    Connections have swerved Aintree to come to Ayr instead, and they are happy to step him up in trip to three miles.

    After his Kempton success, with a wry smile, Alan King suggested during his post-race Racing TV interview that the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle over three miles was under consideration, but with an unchanged mark of 129 after that easy Kempton success, they’ve found a suitable handicap option with him on a potentially better surface than that of Aintree or Kempton.

    Welcom To Cartries is a highly-touted horse for Paul Nicholls, but his rating of 130 is one-pound higher than Masaccio’s.

    On all-known form, notably when finishing a close second to Jinko Blue (now rated 140) while giving 6lbs away at Newbury, Masaccio should have a higher rating than Welcom To Cartries, but he doesn’t.

    On that evidence, he looks like a solid bet at 7/2.

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Gold Cup Day: Selections and Naps

    Cheltenham 2024 | Gold Cup Day: Selections and Naps

    Three Days. 20 Races. 11 Winners. We have been on fire this week. A successful Cheltenham Festival deserves to end on a high, with the 100th Cheltenham Gold Cup in our sights. Plus, some tricky contests both pre and post-race. For the final time this Cheltenham, here’s who I am picking today.

     

    NAP: Mares Chase (Grade Two) – Dinoblue @ 11/8 (Unibet)

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    It’s safe to say that the best two-miler chaser this season, bar the obvious, has been Dinoblue. Ever since her second in last year’s Grand Annual, she’s been ultra-consistent. She picked up two valuable handicaps at both Leopardstown and Punchestown, then was thrown into open company this season.

    She paid back Willie Mullins’ confidence in her when she won Barberstown Castle Chase, then routing the field in the Paddy Rewards Club Chase over Christmas.

    Dinoblue may have finished second to El Fabiolo at the Dublin Racing Festival, but she was six lengths in front of the Champion Chaser 2024, Captain Guinness. She faces a step up in trip, but she should answer the doubters much like Lossiemouth on Tuesday.

     

    E/W BET: 100TH Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (GRADE ONE) – Bravemansgame @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

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    It’s a bit insulting last year’s Gold Cup second at this price. He hadn’t been his fluent self over fences early on this season but showed a better display and a fantastic rally to just edge second ahead of Allaho. We saw the true Bravemansgame that day and Paul Nicholls still believes this horse has it in him to win the Blue Riband race. He won’t mind the soft ground, but 16/1 is odds-on you should never associate with a Grade One winner, and last year’s second.

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    I also fancy a couple of small each-way stakes on both Gentlemansgame and Monkfish. Gentlemansgame beat Bravemansgame at Wetherby and hasn’t been seen since. Trainer Mouse Morris has said he’s been quite hard to train, but this race would’ve been the target for the season. 22/1 (BetVictor, BetUK).

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    Monkfish, anyone remember him? Originally thought he would be going to the Stayers’ Hurdle, Rich Ricci and co suddenly remembered he can jump a fence. He was one of the shortest-priced winners of the 2021 Festival, winning the Brown Advisory at 1/4. His odds were slashed for the Gold Cup the year after, but sadly he picked up an injury that rules him out until the end of last season. This horse has been destined to win a Gold Cup and could produce the comeback of all comebacks at 33/1 (William Hill).

    Having said all of that, Galopin Des Champs wins his second Gold Cup at a canter. 11/10 (William Hill).

     

    Handicap Best: County Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – L’Eau Du Sud @ 4/1 (General)

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    The king of the Cheltenham plot jobs made it two handicap wins with 25/1 outsider Monmiral winning the Pertemps. L’Eau Du Sud runs in the same colours and ran a blinder in the Betfair Hurdle last time out. He was six lengths of the next placed horse and goes up six pounds. A fair rise, but still puts him in great position on the weights. The British are also 5-2 up in the handicap races, which shows you how well they’ve been treated this week.

    King Of Kingsfield comes into the race on a super boost. On his last start he finished behind the Supreme winner Slade Steel and the Gallagher winner Ballyburn. Some form line to come into handicapping for the first time. He’s on the same mark as last time out, which shows that he’ll have to prove he’s just as good as the other two today. He’s got a great chance at 11/2 (Unibet).

    A big-priced shot could be Mr Freedom. Reading Sheena West’s comments, she is extremely bullish about his chances and the form backs it up. He’s finished in the top three of every race he’s completed since June 2023. Some record. Even with a five-pound penalty, he still looks well-treated and will not mind that ground. Small each-way stakes at 40/1 (General).

     

    Selections:

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    13:30 – Triumph Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Majborough @ 7/2 (Unibet, Betfred, Boylesports), Kargese e/w @ 6/1 (Boylesports), Salver e/w @ 10/1 (General)

    14:10 – County Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – L’EAU DU SUD (HB) @ 4/1 (General), King Of Kingsfield e/w @ 11/2 (Unibet), Mr Freedom e/w @ 40/1 (General)

    14:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Dancing City @ 8/1 (Unibet, Betfred, Boylesports), Chigorin e/w @ 11/1 (General)

    15:30 – 100TH CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP (GRADE ONE) – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS @ 11/10 (William Hill), BRAVEMANSGAME E/W @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports), Gentlemansgame e/w @ 22/1 (BetVictor, BetUK), Monkfish e/w @ 33/1 (William Hill)

    16:10 – Hunter’s Chase – Premier Magic @ 6/1 (General), Billaway e/w @ 9/1 (Unibet), D’Jango e/w @ 66/1 (Unibet)

    16:50 – Mares Chase (Grade Two) – DINOBLUE (NAP) @ 11/8 (Unibet), Allegorie De Vassy (R/F)

    17:30 – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle – Quai De Bourbon @ 7/2 (William Hill), Better Days Ahead e/w @ 9/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports), Yeats Star e/w @ 18/1 (Unibet)

    The very best of luck!

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Cheltenham 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Bookies blew a huge sigh of relief as El Fabiolo pulled up in the Champion Chase, ruining some punters multiples. But this page still managed to tip up four more winners and a place in the five remaining races. This puts us in profit for the week so far and we aim to do it again today for Cheltenham Day Three.

     

    NAP: Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Brighterdaysahead @ 6/4 (William Hill, BetUK)

    Despite being a new race, this year’s renewal looks a hot contest. But Brighterdaysahead is held in the highest regard in the Elliott stable. She adores this type of ground and two double-figure winning distances show that she’s full of talent. Cheltenham has been on the agenda since her first run over hurdles.

    Don’t disregard Jade De Grugy, however. She won a hot looking Grade Three in Ireland by six-and-a-half lengths. However, no horse from that race has backed the form up which calls into question how weak this division is. The same can be said for Brighterdaysahead, but her victories have been more impressive.

    Majestic Force has a good each-way chance in the race after winning over further and beating the boys in a maiden hurdle on testing ground. Henry de Bromhead has managed to find a winner in the first two days and can end up with another at a big price. 28/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    E/W BET: Turners Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Iroko @ 13/2 (General)

    I have a bit of affection for Iroko. He’s the flagbearer for Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero and has come on leaps and bounds to be here. After impressing at Warwick in November, he picked up an injury that seemingly rules him out for the season. Now the trainers have have back to 100%, he has the ability to try and notch up his second win in as many Festivals. Despite one run over fences, he jumped well at Warwick and has a big engine too.

    Grey Dawning should get the better of Ginny’s Destiny here, despite the latter being a three-time course winner. Grey Dawning hit the second last when these two both met at Cheltenham in November. If it wasn’t for that mistake he may have won the race. His jumping has since improved and has potential to go much further. 9/4 (General).

     

    Handicap Best: Trustatrader Plate Chase (Premier) – Crebilly @ 9/2 (William Hill, BetUK)

    I seriously think that Crebilly has plenty of ability about him and has been campaigned with this race in mind. His win on heavy ground was tough but proves he’s got an engine. The form might not have been backed up, and it may have been against two opponents, but the handicapper has only risen him a pound. He’s made a few mistakes at Cheltenham in the past, but that seemed to be solved at Exeter.

    Saint Felicien enjoyed his first success over fences last time out beating Aime Desjy. He’s improved with each run, reducing the gap between first and second each time before going on to win. On form he seems to handle the heavy conditions. Whilst Elliott hasn’t won a handicap yet, all his horses are campaigned with these sorts of races in mind. 9/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Selections:

    13:30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Grey Dawning @ 9/4 (General), IROKO (E/W) @ 13/2 (General)

    14:10 – Pertemps Final (Premier) – Cuthbert Dibble e/w @ 9/1 (Boylesports, BetUK), Gabbys Cross e/w @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred), Springwell Bay e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, BetUK)

    14:50 – Ryanair Chase (GRADE ONE) – Stage Star @ 5/1 (General), Ga Law e/w @ 25/1 (General)

    15:30 – Stayers’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Teahupoo @ 7/4 (General), Noble Yeats e/w @ 13/2 (General), Paisley Park e/w @ 12/1 (General)

    16:10 – Trustatrader Plate H’cap Chase (Premier) – CREBILLY (HB) @ 9/2 (William Hill, BetUK), Saint Felicien @ 9/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    16:50 – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (NAP) @ 6/4 (William Hill, BetUK), Majestic Force e/w @ 28/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    17:30 – Kim Muir Challenge Cup – Angels Dawn @ 10/1 (William Hill), Where It All Began @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    The very best of luck!

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Day Two Selections and Naps

    Cheltenham 2024 | Day Two Selections and Naps

    Day One was a great start for the Cheltenham punters. Gaelic Warrior, State Man & Lossiemouth all came through in the end, to thrash the bookies. Day Two has three odds-on shots, but are they going to win?

    NAP: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – FACT TO FILE @ 5/6 (William Hill, Betfred)

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    Fact To File is one of the best young novices we’ve seen this year. He went and proved that by beating Gaelic Warrior at a canter. The fact that Willie Mullins announced where he was going first also spoke of the confidence he has in this horse. Willie Mullins could notch 100 winners yesterday and this could be one of the most talented, who could end up in the Gold Cup next year.
    With the ground as it is, I wouldn’t be going near Stay Away Fay. But Monty’s Star is a little interesting. He was third behind Corbetts Cross on debut, of which he duly delivered yesterday. Then he produced a stunning round of jumping on New Year’s Eve to beat Three Card Brag. It’s a big step up from beginners Chase to Grade One, but he may well be able to handle it. 6/1 (William Hill).

    E/W BET: Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Handstands @ 14/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Betfred)

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    In a market that is dominated by the Irish, much like the race will be, the British aren’t without hope. Ben Pauling enjoyed a good day yesterday at Cheltenham with Twig finishing second in the Ultima and he could earn another valuable place.

    Unbeaten in his career, Handstands beat Grade One winner Jango Baie and Huntingdon in a Listed Novice Hurdle. He also had some dominating victories before his step up to Listed level before. Whilst he hasn’t experienced heavy ground under rules, he has won it on his only run, and win, in point-ot-point. There’s no worry about the ground, but he’ll be bang in there with a chance to place.

     

    Handicap Best: Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – Built By Ballymore @ 9/2 (Unibet)

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    This is another race that could be dominated by favourites. And with the ground as it is, everyone has latched onto the Built By Ballymore train and have slashed his odds. I mentioned in my preview that I though he had a great chance if the rain came, and his prayers have been answered. The handicapper has not been harsh on him at all and comes into mid-division on the weights.

    Each-way prices are often double figures, but there’s just something about Sa Majeste and Langer Dan that I can’t escape. It seems like poor punting going for the top three in the market, but when the handicapper says Sa Majeste is the most difficult horse he’s had to handicap, be sure that he’s got it wrong. He beat Noble Yeats, who went and won the Cleeve Hurdle since, on heavy ground at Limerick. 6/1 (William Hill).

    Everyone noticed what Dan Skelton was doing midway through the season with Langer Dan. The magic number of 143 appeared, but came in difficult circumstances. When ulcers were found on him, many thought that was Cheltenham abandoned. But the Alcester trainer confirmed he was 100%, just ready enough to turn up to Cheltenham. 8/1 (William Hill).

     

    Selections:

    13:30 – Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Ballyburn*^ @ 2/5 (General), HANDSTANDS E/W @ 14/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Betfred)

    14:10 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – FACT TO FILE (NAP)^ @ 5/6 (William Hill, Betfred), Monty’s Star @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    14:50 – Coral Cup (Premier) – BUILT BY BALLYMORE @ 9/2 (Unibet), Sa Majeste @ 6/1 (William Hill), Langer Dan @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    15:30 – Queen Mother Champion Chase (GRADE ONE) – El Fabiolo* @ 1/2 (General)

    16:10 – Cross-Country Chase – Minella Indo @ 100/30 (William Hill, BetUK), Coko Beach (R/F)

    16:50 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Premier) – Path D’Oroux @ 12/1 (William Hill), Hardy Du Seuil @ 10/1 (General)

    17:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (GRADE ONE) – Jasmin De Vaux @ 11/2 (Unibet), Junta Marvel @ 16/1 (Unibet, BetUK), Fleur Au Fusil @ 14/1 (William Hill)