Well, day one of the Cheltenham Festival is finished at the time of writing, so before the second day kicks off, here are my Cheltenham Festival 2025 Day 3 Tips.
What a day at Prestbury Park today. Drama-fueled doesn’t begin to describe it, but let’s stick to the column.
Jango Baie won at 7/1, and he covered the other losses we took on the day. Workahead and Broadway Boy were very disappointing, though Liam Swagger placed in the Fred Winter and Kyntara ran a poor race.
Let’s roll on to my fancies for day three.
Cheltenham Festival 2025 Day 3 Tips
Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (1:20, Thursday) – Maughreen @ 6/1 with Betfred (4 places) – 1pt EW
The one horse who has been a bit divisive on the preview panels in the lead-up to the Festival is Maughreen, but I’m in her camp rather than looking to take her on.
This does come with a caveat – the word doing the rounds is that Gavin Cromwell thinks Sixandahalf is a certainty. Superb.
I just can’t help but be impressed regarding Maughreen from her two starts so far. Her bumper was great, even if she beat statues, and she put in a nice effort when winning on hurdles debut.
The ground was heavy, and one could argue she wouldn’t have loved that surface, especially on her seasonal/hurdles debut. Familiar Dreams, a Grade 3 bumper winner, came out of that race and won next time out to give the form some substance.
She is a half-sister to Blow Your Wad who won a Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase on a nice surface and also a decent Kempton handicap on good ground. Her other sibling, Sweetowatch, won a Bellewstown bumper on good and finished second in a Sligo bumper on good to firm.
I think she could be better than this field, so she gets my vote despite her relative inexperience.
Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (2:00, Thursday) – Firefox @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW
I know connections have toyed with the idea of 2m4f for Firefox over the last few years without too much success, but the seven-year-old is dipping his toe into handicap company for the first time, and that makes me interested.
He’s raced against some good horses over the last few years, notably Mystical Power, Heart Wood, Croke Park, Ile Atlantique, Majborough, and Slade Steel.
He’s shown a consistent level of ability on pretty much every start over obstacles, which has been good to see, and there have been excuses for some of his disappointments.
He scoped dirty after the Lawlor’s Of Naas last season and he was taken a bit off his feet in this year’s Irish Arkle behind Majborough.
His chasing debut over 2m4f was successful on nice ground and he ran a very fine race behind Heart Wood and Croke Park over that distance in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices’ Chase.
Although he has plenty of experience on soft ground, he has shown tendencies for enjoying better ground, notably in his winning bumper at Navan, at the 2024 Punchestown Festival, and on his chasing debut.
This nice Cheltenham ground will be right up his street, and the make-up of the race (handicap and over 2m4f) will help him get into a nice rhythm rather than running in a hot two-mile Grade 1.
A mark of 150 is fine and Jack Kennedy is booked to do the steering. I like him.
Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (2:40, Cheltenham) – Supreme Gift @ 40/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 0.5pt EW
The Pertemps can throw up a surprise or two. I’m hoping this is the case as Supreme Gift is a big price.
He won nicely at Ascot last season on decent ground when Josh The Boss, a subsequent Silver Trophy winner, was back through the field.
His last winning mark came off a one-pound lower mark when beating Harbour Lake, who reopposes here, and that came on soft ground.
He’s shown a good deal of ability on better surfaces before, notably when winning that previously mentioned Ascot race over 2m5f, and he could really outrun his odds.
Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (2:40, Cheltenham) – Bugise Seagull @ 28/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 0.5pt EW
As already mentioned, the Pertemps can be a nightmare, but I do want to keep Bugise Seagull on side at a price.
This season hasn’t gone too much to plan, but that has resulted in him running here on a rating of 139 despite placing in a Grade 1 and Listed race last season.
The Grade 1 came behind Brighterdaysahead at Aintree with Jimmy Du Seuil, the Coral Cup winner, in fourth.
Furthermore, the Listed race he ran in was the Sidney Banks behind the two future Grade 1 winners Handstands and Jango Baie.
He’s shown tendencies to run well on nicer ground for much of his career and his two runs at three miles in handicap hurdles this season have been intriging.
With that good Graded form stated, he remains unexposed off 139 in a well-run handicap. Both he and Supreme Gift are big prices who have the capabilities of running nice races.
Ryanair Chase (3.20, Thursday) – Heart Wood @ 16/1 (ante-post tip)
Another one of my ante-post bets from this column for the week, this time in the Ryanair Chase with Heart Wood.
In fairness, with the sheer lack of chat for this horse, I thought he might even drift out from the 16/1 price that I got at the day before the William Hill Hurdle (February 7th), but he’s held his price and even come in a few clicks with some firms.
For my full explanation, click here and read the top section. Moving on.
Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (4:00, Thursday) – Lucky Place @ 7/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW
Lucky Place was probably unlucky (lucky) not to make the ante-post selections, but he wasn’t much bigger than his current 7/1 price for the majority of February, so I’m happy we’ve waited until now to play him.
It surprised me just how bullish Nicky Henderson was on his media day when talking about this horse. Now, that may turn out to be a bad omen, but I was taken back by his comments about a horse that I’ve always liked.
He ran a huge race in Langer Dan’s Coral Cup last year carrying the weight of bad stable form and my money, and he’s just continued to improve this season.
He won an Ascot Hurdle when Henderson’s runners needed their seasonal openers, and he further improved to win the Relkeel Hurdle when giving 6lbs away to a subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner Gowel Road.
He also gave 10lbs away to Golden Ace, a subsequent Elite Hurdle and Champion Hurdle (I know) winner. Funnily enough, he gave a full 14lbs away to Jeremy Scott’s mare at Taunton on his third start over hurdles and ran a proper race for a long way before finishing second. His subsequent Gidleigh Park form has also worked out well.
He’s a tough horse. He doesn’t look overly big; he just looks well-built, straightforward, and honest, and he’ll handle a sounder surface.
Go on, the boy.
Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase (4:40, Thursday) – Ginny’s Destiny @ 10/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW
I read a funny little stat the other day from the very shrewd Matt Tombs, so I’m going to share it here.
In a Racing TV article from the middle of last month, when talking about handicappers at the Cheltenham Festival, he said: “If you’d backed all 102 British “dropped horses” blind at the past three Festivals you would have made a 51pt (50%) profit, so even before we use our judgment to improve returns, it has been a profitable trend to follow.”
To read the full article, please click here. I would thoroughly recommend it.
I thought that was pretty remarkable. Considering there have been 102 handicapper droppers from this side of the Irish Sea over the last few Festivals, to walk away with the same amount of money in your pocket is not something everyone would have guessed.
Anyway, why is this relevant? Well, Ginny’s Destiny started this season with a rating of 155 and he is now down to a mark of 149. Appealing.
Tombs actually says in his piece that “if you use stable form as an excuse then he looks well handicapped”, and this is how I would read his season.
All of Paul Nicholls’ runners needed their first run this season, so you can put a line through the Paddy Power Gold Cup. On his next start in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase, Nicholls’ runners were still a bit below the mark and did the fast right-handed nature of Huntingdon really suit him that much? Probably not.
Yes, he was poor on Trials Day, but I’ll forgive him. I don’t want to say Nicholls’ runners were under a small cloud at the time again, but they weren’t exactly on fire.
He’s well-handicapped based on his Turners form with Grey Dawning and Djelo, and I’d like to see him make all from the front in a race like this. He’s the play.
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (5:20, Thursday) – Fantastic Lady @ 25/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 0.5pt EW
The Kim Muir is always a tricky race to work out, but Fantastic Lady could have the class edge.
She beat Ga Law in the Grade 2 Oaksey Chase at Sandown in April and ran a fine race behind Don’t Rightly Know and Apple Away in a Listed Mares’ Chase at Newbury in January.
Apple Away went on to finish third in the Grand National Trial and Don’t Rightly Know beat Malina Girl in another Listed Mares’ Chase on her next start. Malina Girl ran well in Tuesday’s Ultima to create a bit of collateral form.
Her last run at Newbury came on soft ground, but a return to a slightly nicer surface should help her and she has dropped 5lbs in the handicap from her opening mark at the start of this season.
Jack Hendrick is booked for the ride, so he claims a useful 3lbs in the saddle, so she could run well in the first-time cheekpieces.
