It’s episode three of the Free Cheltenham Festival 2025 Ante-post Tips series and this piece includes an interesting 16/1 shot for the Ryanair Chase.
Furthermore, my full bets for Newbury and Warwick on Saturday are included to enjoy.
Last weekend’s Dublin Racing Festival claimed its fair share of victims, and I was one of them. Day two wasn’t too bad thanks to a couple of places, but day one was a complete blank, so we are off the bridle at the start of this month.
Hopefully, the tides can change, so let’s dive in.
Free Cheltenham Festival 2025 Ante-post Tips
Heart Wood @ 16/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW
I’ve floated around this pick for a while, but I want to get Heart Wood in the book for the Ryanair Chase.
He’s a progressive seven-year-old who has Grade 1 form in the book, notably when third to Inothewayurthinkin and Iroko at Aintree last season.
The former has run two good races behind Galopin Des Champs this season and the latter has the Grand National on his agenda, so the form looks fair. Chianti Classico, an Ascot handicap chase winner off 152 in November, was in fourth, so that form has been franked.
Before that Aintree run, Heart Wood bolted up in a handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival off 136. He was very well-handicapped that day, and the form of the race has worked out.
James Du Berlais, the third, nearly won the Topham at Aintree subsequently and the likes of Inothewayurthinkin (9th) and Perceval Legallois (fell) went on to win after.
However, it’s his run in the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Christmas that appeals the most to me.
He travelled strongly through the race, jumped well, and made an eye-catching move around the home turn.
Ultimately, he didn’t stay the three-mile test against one of the greatest staying chasers in recent memory, but the run was still good, and Grangeclare West (6th) chased home Galopin Des Champs in the recent Irish Gold Cup.
Heart Wood’s form from the Drinmore Novices’ Chase alongside Croke Park got a boost on the weekend as well, so his form is starting to stack up.
He’s a big price, and while you’d have to be worried about Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior, and Protektorat if they turned up, I’m happy to chance him.
Saturday Selections
3:00 Newbury – JPR One @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW
The unfortunate lack of Sir Gino in the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase does make it a betting race, and JPR One makes the most appeal at 9/1.
My one worry is ground with him as Joe Tizzard is fairly insistent that he likes a better surface, and while this may be true, some of his best efforts have come in slower conditions.
He posted a career-best when third to Jonbon in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase in December on soft and he won the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase on soft ground at Lingfield last season.
Good to soft, soft in places, should therefore be fine for him, and Newbury tends to dry out faster than some over tracks.
Away from that, his form stacks up. Matata is the favourite here at 2/1, and while I’m not denying he has improved this season, JPR One beat him fairly comfortably in the Lightning Novices’ Chase in January 2024.
He beat Djelo, a subsequent Peterborough Chase winner, in the Haldon Gold Cup on his seasonal reappearance and then he ran a solid race behind Jonbon at Sandown one month later.
Any Jonbon form is worth its weight in gold, and being beaten by roughly 10 lengths is virtually the same as what Edwardstone did in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase last month.
Furthermore, considering he gave Jonbon plenty of rope coming around the pond at Sandown in December, he did well to stay on as well as he did on soft ground.
JPR One has plenty of form lines that give him an equal/better chance than some of his rivals, yet he is a 9/1 shot and the others are much shorter.
For that reason, he is a bet.
3:15 Warwick – Le Milos @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win
I want to be on Le Milos when he next wins, and I hope Saturday is that day.
He’s cost me a few pennies so far this season, but he wasn’t ridden correctly in the Sir Peter O’Sullevan at Newbury in November.
His best efforts have come when picking off rivals and he was ridden from the front on that occasion, so I thought it was his day at Chepstow on Welsh National Day.
Unfortunately, it wasn’t, but he was beaten by Lowry’s Bar who went on to chase home Jingko Blue in the Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase.
He’s dropped to a mark of 139 now, and considering I was happy to back him off 144 two starts ago when he was ‘well-handicapped’, he has to have a good chance at the weights.
I think this race is easier than that Chepstow contest as well. Shakem Up’arry is on a tough mark and has one day in mind (the Plate at Cheltenham), and it seems like Fugitif has that same target as well.
Furthermore, I wonder if Richard Hobson has kept Fugitif on the go in preparation for this or if he has had a few easy weeks to give him a nice chance of improving for the Festival.
If the latter is the case, he might just need this run to fully put him spot on for March, though this is pure speculation on my part. This is a qualifier for a nice £100,000 final, after all.
So, with a nice rating of 139 and Harry Skelton in the saddle, let’s hope Le Milos can return to the winners’ enclosure.
3.35 Newbury – Givemefive @ 40/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW
William Hill have Givemefive priced at a very big price of 40/1 in the William Hill Hurdle, and that is too big for a horse of his ability.
Firstly, Harry Derham has always had this race in the back of his mind, ever since he won the Masterson Holdings Hurdle at Cheltenham in October.
I’m not suggesting he’s been some plot for the race, but it makes his Windsor run at 28/1 when positioned towards the rear a little bit more understandable.
That’s not to say that his last run was fine. It wasn’t, and Derham admitted this in his OLGB update with Ella McNeill on X, but his best runs over the last two years have come when he was positioned prominently.
At Cheltenham in October, he beat Dodger Long and Bottler’secret quite comfortably. The latter has let the form down since, but Dodger Long ran a big race behind the exciting Anzadam at Fairyhouse in November.
Furthermore, when looking at last season, his second to Kalif Du Berlais in the Adonis sticks out like a sore thumb. The winner is now rated 152 over fences and the third, Captain Marvellous, looked smart when winning at Warwick at the start of the season before sadly suffering a fatal injury.
He has a bit to prove based on his last two runs, but I’m not willing to give up on him already. He was a half-decent Flat horse who has won on soft ground over hurdles, and he has the scope to improve from his official rating of 132.
4:10 Newbury – Lord Of Thunder @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win
Lord Of Thunder has to start winning over fences soon, and I’m hoping Saturday is when he starts doing so.
Joe Tizzard hasn’t hidden what he thinks about this horse. He highlighted him as a novice chaser to follow at the start of the season, and he’s been campaigned fairly conservatively so far.
He fell on chase debut at Cheltenham on good ground before a fine run at Exeter in December behind Lowry’s Bar, a Grade 2 runner-up subsequently.
On his last start, he ran a really big race in the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase behind Handstands who has gone on to win the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase subsequently.
He didn’t even finish a distant second either; he travelled well around the home turn when a few were off the bridle, he jumped soundly, and he stayed on.
Handstands probably had a bit more tactical speed on the day, but his effort was eye-catching, and this step up to three miles should suit.
His only dives into handicaps have occurred this season, and excuses can be made about his first two outings (fell and potentially needed the run), so he is thoroughly unexposed.
Admittedly, Herakles Westwood was good at Windsor last month, and Warren Greatrex is thinking of the National Hunt Chase for him.
He’s a big danger, but here’s how I see both contenders. Because he’s a rapid improver in the handicap, we (as punters) are slightly taking it on trust that Herakles Westwood can continue to win off this new handicap mark.
With Lord Of Thunder, there’s no need to have that element of chance. To my eye, he has confirmed form that suggests he’s better than his current mark of 129, and if I’m wrong, I’m wrong.
