Best Of Bets

Tag: cheltenham festival

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Day One: Selections and Naps

    Cheltenham 2024 | Day One: Selections and Naps

    All the build-up has led to this. All the talk and previews can finally end. Cheltenham. Is. Back. And we kick off in style with the roar of all roars. We kick off with the supreme and head on to a competitive Arkle, followed by two superstars of the turf. Here are my tips for Day One.

     

    NAP: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade One) – JERIKO DU REPONET @ 15/2 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    Embed from Getty Images

    I think that the first five in the market hold all the aces, but there’s big weaknesses to each horse at the head of the market.

    Tullyhill slows on his jumping, which is concerning coming into what is usually a fast-paced race. No horse round Cheltenham can jump like he did. The form from his Listed win at Punchestown is yet to be tested.

    Mystical Power, for me, is all hype and no substance. The form from the Moscow Flyer hasn’t worked out, and there hasn’t been a winner of the Moscow Flyer/Supreme since Cheltenham legend Douvan in 2015.

    Slade Steel is only avoiding Ballyburn, which is cowardly behaviour from Henry de Bromhead. Particularly when this horse looks more like a Baring Bingham horse than a Supreme.

    Firefox was wrongly stepped up in distance last time out, and Ballyburn is the only horse to frank the form in the 24 strong field. He hasn’t proved himself at this level.

    Therefore, I’ve landed on Jeriko Du Reponet. He was workmanlike at Doncaster, but his previous tow runs at Newbury looked very stylish. His form from the Grade Two at Doncaster has worked out a treat, with the second and third the one-two at Kempton, and El Elefante winning at Ayr on Friday. Wearing the first colours of JP McManus isn’t always a sign but take not of it.

    Take note of Mistergif. Never ignore a horse with an 18-length victory on debut and could run a cracking race if there’s not much pace on. 11/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    E/W BET: Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade One) – Master Chewy @ 16/1 (General)

    Embed from Getty Images

    Despite everyone saying that JPR One is the best British hope for the race, they can’t rule out Master Chewy. JPR One was idling in the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Lingfield and was nowhere near convincing to be raised up to the dizzying heights of 150.

    For Master Chewy, he’s won a Graded race in supreme fashion at Kempton over Christmas. Of which, Nickle Back backed the form up in the Scilly Isles’ Chase at Sandown. His run in the lightning was severely hampered by Djelo at the first and never got going after that, so draw a line through the run.

    Gaelic Warrior can’t jump left-handed, which beggars’ belief why he’s favourite. Il Etait Temps wants further and JPR One is unreliable. Master Chewy is the e/w angle in the Arkle.

     

    Handicap Best: Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier) – Chianti Classico @ 7/1 (BetUK)

    Embed from Getty Images

    Cheltenham trainer Kim Bailey will always have his horses prepped for whichever race he aims them towards. Chianti Classico has been a massive project. He pulled up in last year’s Albert Bartlett but has come back this season looking like a different animal. His successes at Kempton and Chepstow are well noted and has come into the Ultima and a low weight. Novices have seemed to have the upper hand in the Ultima in recent years and Bailey likes the look of what Chianti Classico brings to the table.

    His stablemate Trelawne is also a fascinating horse. He’ll relish the softer conditions on the Tuesday and has plenty to build on from his Exeter run. His run at Cheltenham was good behind both Ginny’s Destiny and Grey Dawning, managing to finish two-and-a-half lengths in front of Crebilly. He’s only a pound higher in the weights than his stablemate. The, always, in-form Harry Cobden takes the ride. 8/1 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK).

    Minella Crooner was not at his best in the Bobbyjo Chase. He doesn’t stay much over three-and-a-half miles after he pulled up in last year’s National Hunt Chase and the Porterstown Chase. He’s run two good races, however, with a close third in the New Year’s Day Chase and a win in the M.W Hickey Memorial Chase. He’s only sightly better off at the weights than his stablemate but has a chance of outrunning his odds. 25/1 (William Hill, BetUK).

     

    Selections:

    13:30 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – JERIKO DU REPONET (NAP) @ 15/2 (Boylesports, BetUK), Mistergif 11/1 e/w (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    14:10 – Arkle Challenge Trophy (GRADE ONE) – Found A Fifty @ 7/1 (Unibet, William Hill), Hunters Yarn (R/F), MASTER CHEWY E/W @ 16/1 (General)

    14:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier) – CHIANTI CLASSICO @ 7/1 (BetUK), Trelawne @ 8/1 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK), Minella Crooner @ 25/1 (William Hill, BetUK)

    15:30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Nemean Lion (W/O State Man) @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    16:10 – Mares’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Love Envoi (W/O Lossiemouth) @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    16:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – Liari @ 9/1 (William Hill, Betfred), Nara e/w @ 12/1 (General), Miss Manzor e/w @ 14/1 (General), An Bradan Feasa e/w @ 25/1 (General)

    17:30 – Maureen Mullins National Hunt Chase (Grade Two) – Corbetts Cross @ 9/4 (General)

    The very best of luck!

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Championship Races

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Championship Races

    With no Constitution Hill, can State Man write his name on the trophy? Can Galopin Des Champs make it back-to-back in one of the most competitive Gold Cups? Just who will win the headline races of the Festival.

     

    Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy – 2m 87yds – Grade One

    Embed from Getty Images

    It’s such a shame that Constitution Hill can’t make it. But at least we’ve another star hurdler on our hands from the other side of the Irish Sea.

    State Man is the best hurdler in Ireland and has been for the last two years but has run into Constitution Hill over in Cheltenham to deny him a deserved Champion Hurdle. And with no other hurdler to match the quality of him, it seems another open and shut case.

    The without State Man market will be the one to watch throughout the next few days. It’s a shame Lossiemouth will not oppose State Man, as she wouldn’t be without a chance. But she will go to the Mares’ Hurdle.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Irish Point and Iberico Lord have been supplemented for the race. Irish Point has come from a potential tilt at the Stayers’ Hurdle to drop a full mile back. It looks like a wasted opportunity over this level, and I cannot understand why Robcour will not run him and Teahupoo together in the main race on Thursday.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Iberico Lord is an out and out two-miler but has been acting it in handicap company. He has won over C&D this season in the Greatwood and won the Betfair Hurdle really well. Considering he may be a Constitution Hill replacement; he might not be out of his depth here.

    Verdict:

    State Man. Class Act. Wins It. No doubt. 2/5 (General).

    Each-way (W/O) picks: Pied Piper has been overlooked I believe. He was not up to scratch in the Morgiana, but around Cheltenham his record reads 1312. Two wins round the course, plus narrowly beaten means he must have a liking for the course and can run a race at a decent price. 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK).

    Reverse Forecast: State Man, Pied Piper

     

    Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase – 1m 7F 199yds – Grade One

    Embed from Getty Images

    Once again, this could be another open and shut race. Or is everyone doubting one horse a little too much?

    El Fabiolo is unbeaten over fences, handles Cheltenham well and had the better of Jonbon last year. So why should he not win. Some have said he is not the best jumper. But Jonbon isn’t either, given his run in the Clarence House. Even if El Fabiolo makes a mistake, he’s shown the great ability to recover and move on. That’s his best quality.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Do you write of Jonbon for that one mistake? He rallied extremely well, but the mistake at the fourth last knocked the wind out of his sails and just couldn’t respond to James Bowen’s urges up the hill. But he only lost by a neck, which shows his tenacity. It’s 1-1 in the series between these two and Jonbon still has plenty of talent to take advantage of an off day El Fabiolo.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Edwardstone was going to be aimed at the Ryanair. But a poor showing in the Silviniaco Conti and stepped down in the Game Spirit, he showed a new lease of life being ridden from the front. Tom Cannon will try to use that to his advantage, but the former two horses will be expecting it.

    Verdict:

    Even on an off day, El Fabiolo seems to be the best of the bunch. He hacked up in last year’s Arkle and showed off the gulf between him and Jonbon over fences. It makes sense he will be a massive banker for Wednesday. 4/9 (BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Captain Guinness could run to a place if Jonbon doesn’t show his true credentials. His only victory came at the start of the season beating Riviere D’Etel, who backed up the form next time out. He ran a good race in behind El Fabiolo and Dinoblue, two talented chasers, in the Dublin Chase. Double figures are a little too big for a horse who finished second last year. 16/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Ryanair Chase – 2m 4F 127yds – Grade One

    Embed from Getty Images

    This race hangs by a thread with the ground. If it’s good-to-soft by Thursday, expect one of the races of the week. If not, then the race could fall apart.

    Banbridge would’ve been my nap of the week if it wasn’t for a wet Wednesday last year. He offers so much class that he’s won two races since. One at Aintree last season and avoided the heavy ground and won a stormer in the Silvinicaco Conti. No one do a rain dance!

    Embed from Getty Images

    Envoi Allen won this race last year and in really good style. He didn’t follow up on his next two runs, but should’ve, would’ve, could’ve won the Champion Chase at Down Royal if it wasn’t for Gerri Colombe. Don’t be fooled by the double digits as his age will prove nothing when he turns up and runs a stormer.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Stage Star looks made to win this race. He wasn’t on his day on New Year’s Day but draw a line through that run and look back at him winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup by four lengths off next-to-top weight. When a horse loves Cheltenham this much, you can’t’ not look against him.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Capodanno really sprung a surprise in the Cotswold Chase. But analyse the race a little more and you will see that the race was tailor-made for him. He came up against a novice, a horse who was below par, a horse who didn’t like Cheltenham and a handicapped in Grade One company for the first time. It makes sense to drop him here as he wouldn’t want to clash with the Gold Cup entries, but his last win proves this horse has an engine.

    Verdict:

    IF THE GROUND READS GOOD-TO-SOFT, Banbridge will win and win well. He’s a horse I’ve loved ever since the Martin Pipe and has a clear love for Cheltenham. Given Joseph O’Brien’s reduction on jumpers, he won’t come to the Festival to show up. 11/4 (General).

    Each-way pick: I visited Jamie Snowden’s yard on Thursday, and he was supplementing Ga Law for the race. He was very bullish about his chances. He has a great love for Cheltenham and so does the horse, especially when he won the Paddy Power Podcast Chase on Trial’s Day and seems confident he can deliver in a field full of quality. Sold! 16/1 (General).

     

    Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle – 2m 7F 203yds – Grade One

    Embed from Getty Images

    Always competitive and this year’s renewal is no different. Will the youngster’s take the crown, or will the old boys have one final say on the proceedings?

    Teahupoo is the main hope for the Irish. He ran a great race last season and was first past the post into second but was demoted after an enquiry. He showed his quality in the Hatton’s Grace and has been kept fresh for this race, avoiding all staying contests. But there’s been no evidence that there is a better Irish competitor.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Crambo ran a cracker of a race in the Long Walk Hurdle, giving Jonathan Burke a big Grade One win. He’s been booked again to ride Fergal O’Brien’s stable star and there’s nothing to say he won’t go near again.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Noble Yeats has found a new lease of life when just about outstaying Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle. We know this horse has a big engine, as he’s a former Grand National winner. He may have another go at the race, and race over hurdles until then. Emmet Mullins will have had this race in mind to protect his chase mark for the National.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Flooring Porter may have been a National Hunt Chase contender at the start of the season, but his chasing days look a world away. Gavin Cromwell is tempted to come back to this race, which isn’t stupid, given he’s won the race twice. He’s a horse that might have been a little poor over fences but is menace over hurdles.

    Verdict:

    Teahupoo is the best hurdler in this race. Despite only running once this season, there hasn’t been another horse that has impressed me this season in the division, which speaks volumes. It will no doubt be competitive, but he ran a great race last season and can go well again. 9/4 (BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Flooring Porter should not be the price he is when he is coming back to this race. Connections were hesitant about going over fences this season, and it only worked once at the track he likes. A two-time winner of this race, who still has plenty to give is being criminally underestimated. 12/1 (General).

    Paisley Park has been beaten by the following distances this season: head, shoulder, head. Yes, he wasn’t at his best last year, but this year he has shown his best qualities. The fact he has lost by these distances shows you just need a bit of luck in racing. For a place, he’s good value. 16/1 (General).

     

    Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup – 3m 2F 70yds – Grade One

    Embed from Getty Images

    The biggest race of the season. All the iconic names have won this race and have been immortalised ever since. This year looks to be the most competitive Gold Cups we have had for a while.

    Galopin Des Champs was finally found out by Fastorslow in the Punchestown Gold Cup and the John Durkan. But he really showed those who doubted him in the Irish Gold Cup, when back to his brilliant best. He just seems to be hitting the right notes at the right time.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Fastorslow did get two over the Gold Cup winner, as mentioned before. What people may fail to remember is he was beaten by a neck by Corach Rambler in the Ultima. Credit’s where it’s due to Martin Brassil and deserves a winner on the big stage.

    Embed from Getty Images

    It’s safe to say, Shishkin has been a handful this season. Didn’t start at Ascot, tripped inexplicably at Kempton, before showing what he’s made of at Newbury in the Denman. A previous Supreme winner, he finished second in last year’s Ryanair. Is three-and-a-quarter miles a bridge too far?

    Embed from Getty Images

    Gerri Colombe was touted to win the Gold Cup by winning the Down Royal Champion Chase in November. But was shown to be out of his depth when beaten 23 lengths by Galopin Des Champs. He was oh so close to winning the Brown Advisory last year but was beaten by The Real Whacker. This year may not be his time.

    Verdict:

    Galopin Des Champs has an excellent record at the Festival. Currently unbeaten, excluding the fall at the final fence in the Turner’s, he’s always shown his best at the Festival. He just has the beating of this field this season, next year could be a different story. Even at a short price, he’s worth it. 5/4 (General).

    Each-way picks: There’s plenty to pick from. Whilst Bravemansgame hasn’t had the best of seasons, he’s still managed to hang onto a place. Second at Wetherby, second at Haydock and second at Kempton isn’t Gold Cup winning form. But when you consider he was second in last year’s renewal, and matched Galopin Des Champs at the final fence, he’s overpriced. 16/1 (BetUK).

    Many forget just how good a target trainer Mouse Morris is. Gentlemansgame beat Bravemansgame at Wetherby, which made up for finishing second to Easy Game in October. This has been the clear plan and has come up against Galopin Des Champs before. He finished second that day, but it could happen again. 16/1 (General).

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Cross-Country & Hunters

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Cross-Country & Hunters

    Can a former Gold Cup winner go Cross-Country?  Is there an overpriced horse going hunting on Friday? We take a deep dive into the more unique races of the Festival.

     

    Glenfarclas Cross-Country Chase – 3m 6F 37yds – Class 2

    Embed from Getty Images

    Gordon Elliott has, technically, won this race six times. And with only three horses; Cause Of Causes, Tiger Roll and Delta Work.

    But the favourite is a newcomer to cross country chasing, Minella Indo. The 2021 winner of the Gold Cup just wasn’t himself in the past two renewals of the Blue Riband race. He got a sighting of the cheese wedges when coming fourth in the Crystal Cup. Now on level weights, he could roll back the years.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Two-time winner Delta Work hasn’t had the greatest of seasons. He was way behind in the Cross-Country Handicap Chase in November and has failed to place all season. If he managed a better performance under top weight in November, he may have been favourite.

    Galvin was second in last year’s renewal and was ahead of Delta Work in Elliott’s usual prep race for the Cross-Country, the Boyne Hurdle. He improved in the Crystal Cup, but level weights could come to his rescue and could hit the frame again.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Coko Beach could hold a very live chance. He’s won two races this season, including the Troytown in November. He finished second in the Becher and first over the Cross-Country track at Punchestown, so he’s well-qualified. Apart from the lack of a Cheltenham win.

    Verdict:

    A former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner could have one last hurrah and upset the Elliott dominance. Minella Indo is a worthy favourite after showing promising signs in December. 15/8 (William Hill, 888Sport, BetUK).

    Each-way: Coko Beach has been placed at the Festival, way back in 2019. With an excellent season behind him and a win over the Cross-Country track at Punchestown he could continue the Gigginstown trend in the race. 9/2 (General).

    Reverse Forecast: Minella Indo, Coko Beach

     

    St. James’ Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase – 3m 2F 70yds – Class 2

    Embed from Getty Images

    The Gold Cup for amateurs is always an exciting race. Mostly because very few punters have an idea of these horses. But it can often spring a surprise, like 66/1 shot Premier Magic last year.

    It’s On The Line has  never won a race by more than a length this season. However, Emmet Mullins is a master trainer and may have one of the best around.

    Ferns Lock missed last season’s renewal, but his wins this season should give him a fighting chance in this year’s renewal. David Christie is one of the best Hunter/Point-to-Point chase trainers and is due a Festival winner.

    Billaway is always interesting. He ran down Winged Leader, but just couldn’t replicate it last season, falling. He could have beaten It’s On The Line last time out at Naas, but was beaten by a head. Willie Mullins could get into double-figure winners with this race with a horse who’s tenacious and dependable.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Last year’s winner, Premier Magic is overpriced. Many feel he can follow up and is still unbeaten since 2021 and is a legend in the amateur game. He was dominant in last year’s race and can do it once again. Never underestimate a former winner.

    Verdict:

    Whilst he isn’t 66/1, Premier Magic is far better value than horse that hasn’t won by more than a length all season. 7/1 (William Hill, 888Sport, BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Two winners have come at a price of 66/1. And it’s worth a shot at one at the price. Not many mares have won this race, but one has won at Cheltenham. Miss Seagreen won on the Hunter Chase evening last year but was only seen at Ludlow on reappearance. Could she have been aimed at this race? 66/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, BetUK).

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Handicap Hurdles

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Handicap Hurdles

    With just under a week away from the roar, the handicaps are beginning to take shape, with further scratchings today. This article is written in anticipation of the said horses running and odds at NRNB prices.

     

    Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle – 2m 5F – Premier Handicap

    Embed from Getty Images

    Handicaps in general at the Festival can usually be chalked up as a British win. But the Coral Cup has a few Irish runners that are more than capable of winning without causing an upset.

    Sa Majeste has two entries, both of which he’s favourite for. According to the handicapper, this horse has been the most difficult to handicap with just four runs over hurdles, two in France and two in Ireland. With the lack of experience, he’s given a mark of 140. He carries more weight in the Martin Pipe so may look to come here instead.

    Doddiethegreat has had a first full season over fences and has been improving from run to run. Since winning a two-mile introductory hurdle, he’s gone straight into handicapping finishing second at Cheltenham and fourth in the Betfair Hurdle. He’s very lightly weighted which takes a lot of appeal. However, the step up in trip is a question mark.

    Embed from Getty Images

    This has been the race Langer Dan has prepared all season for. Last year he won of a mark of 141, this year he goes off at 141. Whether Dan Skelton told the jockeys to school Langer Dan around his races to get the mark lowered, or whether he hasn’t been himself this season is a big question. Last year he only ran three times and performed equally as poor and went to win the race. However, he has been suffering from ulcers which may rule him out entirely.

    Built By Ballymore will need plenty of rain to perform but has been a major improver this season. He’s won his last two races by 12 lengths each and has been given a lenient mark of 139. However, bottomless ground will be needed to compete.

    Verdict:

    The principles are all well weighted and I can’t find many down the market to down them. Despite four of the last six priced 20/1 or bigger, the handicapper may have underestimated Sa Majeste. The form was backed by Noble Yeats form his run at Limerick and will take advantage of the lighter weight on his back for this race. 11/2 (Betfred, Unibet).

    Each-way picks: With the ground reading Soft and rain forecast this weekend at Cheltenham, Built By Ballymore is worth a few quid too. 12/1 (BetVictor, Unibet).

    Out of the principles, Lucky Place ran a stormer over C&D, making well-fancied Gidleigh Park to work for his win. Lightly handicapped too and should go on soft ground. 14/1 (Unibet).

     

    Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle – 2m 7F 213yds – Premier Handicap

    Embed from Getty Images

    One of the hardest races to predict in the entire Festival. The Irish seem to dominate the race which seems to be the way to go for this race.

    Cleatus Poolaw could make it four victories in the Pertemps for Gordon Elliott after a successful season over hurdles for the first time. He finished behind Ballyburn when he broke his maiden and fared well on his last start when hiked up in trip to finish second in a Qualifier. A nine-pound rise for an Irish horse is a fair mark.

    Remember Chantry House? He won the Marsh (Now Turner’s) Chase way back in 2021. Since then, he’s failed to make an impact on chasing, apart from his win in the 2022 Cotswold Chase. He managed to sneak in to the Pertemps when finishing fourth at Huntingdon. He’s been dropped two pounds for that run and might just have its benefits for a former Festival winner.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Gaoth Chuil has had a similar record to Cleatus Poolaw this season. Plenty of seconds and one win. That win came in the Pertemps Qualifier over Christmas and was hiked up six pounds before finishing within a length of Maxxum in the DRF. It’s another six-pound rise by the British handicapper, which he can easily defy.

    Embed from Getty Images

    It’s been a busy old season for Icare Allen, with a trip to Aintree confirming his spot in the Pertemps, when finishing third. He remains on the same mark of 142 but looks too high in the handicap in a competitive field.

    Verdict:

    All the horses mentioned above are single-figure prices. I fancy one a little juicer. Gabby’s Cross fits the Irish narrative, trained by Henry de Bromhead. His last two runs have seen him finish second and hasn’t been seen in over 100 days to protect the handicap mark. A mark of shrewdness on de Bromhead’s part. 10/1 (General).

    Each-way picks: Springwell Bay is an out an out three-miler. He’s only been risen two pounds for finishing a neck down in his last run. Such leniency gives him a big chance to claim this race for the British. 12/1 (BetUK).

    The ground will have to be testing, but Cuthbert Dibble has had nothing to complain about all season. A six-pound rise may seem a little step for finishing half-a-length up at Haydock last time out. But if Gaoth Chuil can handle it, so can he. 14/1 (Betfred, BetUK).

     

    County Handicap Hurdle – 2m 179yds – Premier Handicap

    Embed from Getty Images

    Possibly the most entertaining race of the week. And with the ‘State Man’ rule now in place, the playing field has finally levelled.

    King Of Kingsfield finished behind Ballyburn and Slade Steel last time out, by 14 lengths. His only win came over Mirazur West in a maiden hurdle, of which the second went and followed up. He looks to have some great talent, but Gordon Elliott isn’t prolific in this race.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Nicky Henderson also doesn’t have a great record in the race, but Iberico Lord has landed some big prizes already this term. A Greatwood and Betfair Hurdle has seen him shoot up the ratings. A full nine pounds higher, it might just be a step too far.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Absurde’s last win came in the Ebor in August under a certain Frankie Dettori in a completely different discipline. Afterwards he headed to the Melbourne Cup in an unusual preparation to get him back over the hurdles for the Winter. He wasn’t too far behind King Of Kingsfield in fourth at the DRF, but will want the ground quite dry.

    Dan Skelton has a fantastic record in the race and is usually the flag bearer for the British in the County. This time he has elected L’Eau Du Sud as his main pick. When running in the Greatwood, he was pulled up to not travelling. That was his first time out this season but ran a tremendous race in the Betfair Hurdle. A six-pound rise may seem harsh, but he seems to be well handicapped for the race.

    Verdict:

    King Of Kingsfield may look the best on paper, but with Gordon Elliott’s record in the race I’m siding with L’Eau Du Sud. He wasn’t up to his best at the start of the season but seems to come alive towards the end. He represents the value of the principals. 12/1 (William Hill, 888Sport, BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Lump Sum is one of the best form horses in the race. It was unusual that he didn’t hold an entry for the Supreme after he won the Dovecote at Kempton. He was only behind Jeriko Du Reponet in his only loss of the season, which shows you the talent this horse possess. 14/1 (Unibet, BetUK, BetGoodwin).

    Impose Toi was only a neck behind Luccia in the Betfair Exchange Trophy and came third in a Lanzarote Hurdle that fell apart. He also has course experience after winning at the November meeting this season. He remains on the same mark as the Lanzarote. 18/1 (BetUK).

     

    Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle – 2m 4F 56yds – Class 2

    Embed from Getty Images

    The final race of the Festival is always one where we reminisce. And sometimes, the lucky last comes up trumps.

    The stars seem to have aligned for Quai De Bourbon as Gigginstown and Willie Mullins team up for this horse. The last time the connections teamed up for a winner in the race was Don Poli back in 2014. Quai De Bourbon may want the ground to be running soft, but has been given a fair mark of 140, which is high enough in the weights.

    Sa Majeste should go to the Coral Cup to avoid carrying an extra five pounds in this race, so Lisnagar Fortune should take his place as second favourite.

    He represents the same connections as Festival winner Lisnagar Oscar. He was only beaten by a shoulder by Readin Tommy Wrong and ahead of Staffordshire Knot, which is the form race for novices in Ireland. The weight may be high but has plenty of quality on the evidence of his last win.

    No Ordinary Joe has two options of going to the Coral Cup or here and as explained is a little more fancied for the former.

    Waterford Whispers is not the best handicapped horse in the field after four runs over hurdles. He’s been given a mark of 130, after rising 10 pounds by the British handicapper. He has some talent, but the rise may be too steep.

    Verdict:

    Favourite backers should end on a high as Quai De Bourbon looks to be well handicapped for his talents. Connections have taken a while to rekindle their relationship but look to have a great future ahead of them. This horse should kick off a new dawn of a once formidable partnership. 4/1 (William Hill, 888Sport, BetUK).

    Each-way pick: The form race from Cork is one I’ll always fall back on and Lisnagar Fortune came out with a lot of fighting spirit. His form has already been backed up by Readin Tommy Wrong, but expect him to go favourite, or close to, if he wins his novice hurdle. 10/1 (General).

    Answer To Kayf looks a little more interesting at a price. Behind Loughglynn over Christmas, he won a competitive novice hurdle over Captain Cody. The handicapper has been generous raising him only three pounds and looks a good each-way chance. 14/1 (General).

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Handicap Chases

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Handicap Chases

    Amongst all the championship races and the novice races, the Festival is littered with fantastic handicap chases. We deep dives into the most competitive races of the week.

     

    Ultima Handicap Chase – 3m 1F – Premier Handicap

    Embed from Getty Images

    This year, the race serves as the third hardest race of the day and could lend a hand to those in need. Last year Corach Rambler repeated an unprecedented success in the Ultima before going on to win the Grand National.

    The favourite is a recent JP McManus purchase, Meetingofthewaters. He won the Paddy Power Chase over Christmas by a huge four-and-a-half lengths but couldn’t repeat the feat when unseating the first in the Leopardstown Chase. That still hasn’t stopped the handicapper raising him two more pounds but is full of promise.

    Embed from Getty Images

    There is a curse on the Irish in this race, but The Goffer looks to have been campaigned for this race. He finished fourth last year off a mark of 149 and has dropped to 147 this time around. His best finish this season was fifth in the Kerry National and hasn’t been seen since the Munster National, possibly to protect the handicap mark.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Spearheading the British challenge is locally trained Chianti Classico. Campaigned for this race since winning at Ascot, Chianti Classico is a fantastic jumper. He pulled up, along with others, in the Albert Bartlett last year but looks to have settled better over fences. There’s an argument that he prefers going right, but that, in my opinion, is nonsense.

    Giovinco is Lucinda Russell’s top hope for the race and has been a delight to watch. A proper tough horse that could well take over from Corach Rambler in the future. Notably he managed to keep up with Stay Away Fay at Sandown which attracted some attention. He remains at the same winning mark for when he won his prep race at Newcastle.

    Verdict:

    Chianti Classico has all the trends in his favour. Novices seem to have the upper hand in recent years and Chianti Classico has outclassed many of his rivals in the division. If he gets in, as it stands, he will be incredibly well-weighted for the task. 8/1 (General).

    Each-way: Trelawne looks to be an improving novice. He won at the start of the season but has ran into some good horses along the way. He could have just downed Tahmuras at Exeter last time out, but the heavy ground was against him. A winner over three miles over hurdles last season, he has a good mark to work on for his first test over the distance this season. 14/1 (General).

    One horse who looks to get in is Annual Invictus, who will need the ground to dry out. He raced in last year’s Kim Muir, finishing eighth. But when racing at Cheltenham, he’s unbeaten on the old course. Despite on a career mark, he should carry a low weight and run to a place, at least. 25/1 (Unibet, BetUK).

     

    Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase – 1m 7F 199yds – Premier Handicap

    Embed from Getty Images

    It’s not billed as the best handicap of the meeting, but it’s still worth getting stuck into with plenty of value around.

    My Mate Mozzie has a good chance coming in this, off a back of a novice chase win back over C&D in October. He then finished behind Found A Fifty, who is one of the main hopes for the Arkle. However, the handicapper has been far too harsh on him, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the market opens up even further if he goes to the Arkle.

    Embed from Getty Images

    The green and gold comes next in the market, with an unlucky loser in recent times. Saint Roi hasn’t won since the 2022 Racing Post Novice Chase and has constantly fell into some of the best two-milers around. With all that graded form, he could come in here and win well of a high weight.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Harper’s Brook looks overpriced as third favourite. With just a four-pound rise after his win when stepping back to two miles, it looks very attractive. Particularly when connections aren’t mulling about with this race or the Ultima. This is his only entry and looks to take advantage of it.

    Libberty Hunter ran a cracker of a race on New Year’s Day when beating the well fancied Matata. He will want plenty of dig in the ground. And with the going soft, he looks like he has an excellent chance to land a hattrick of wins.

    Verdict:

    Of the principles mentioned, I’d side with Harper’s Brook. However, my main pick is Path D’oroux. He’s ran two great races in second, with plenty in hand over the third placed horse both times. Despite that, he’s still looking for his first elusive win over fences. But Cheltenham’s top trainer has always delivered at every meeting, bar Trial’s Day, so far. 10/1 (William Hill, 888Sport, BetVictor, Betfred).

    Each-way pick: Calico has gone under the radar this season yet put up a stormer of a performance against Triple Trade at the November meeting. He finished well behind Madara and then put up a good performance in the Great Yorkshire Chase. The handicap mark has been relatively untouched, now back to 143. He’s always ran to place at Cheltenham and can do once again. 16/1 (General).

     

    Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase – 2m 4F 127yds – Premier Handicap

    Embed from Getty Images

    There’s always a big handicap chase over two-and-a-half miles at every meeting at Cheltenham, and it sometimes one of the best races of the Festival.

    Crebilly looks to be the best weighted horse in all the Festival handicaps. He looks like he’ll have almost a stone in hand by the declaration stage. Despite falling at Cheltenham on his first start this season, he looked as though he could well beat Ginny’s Destiny. On his second start at Cheltenham, he had an off day jumping wise but was back to his best at Exeter in testing conditions.

    Theatre Man just didn’t have enough but lost nothing in defeat to Ginny’s Destiny. It was impressive considering it was his first time at that level. This might just be a level he’s not ready for. Despite looking well-weighted, he’ll have a tough order trying to peg back the favourite.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Letsbeclearaboutit was impressive at the start of the season but was oddly stepped up to over three miles after a good performance in a big a handicap over two. This looks to be his true distance but might be a tad too high in the handicap anyway.

    Madara is siding towards the Grand Annual and Ga Law will be supplemented for the Ryanair. So, Saint Felicien is next in the market. He is one who will need the ground testing. He managed to break his duck in the nick of time, beating Aime Desjy at Gowran. But the handicapper has been far too harsh on a horse who’s only started chasing and pulled up in last year’s Coral Cup.

    Verdict:

    Crebilly is the best weighted horse in the race full stop. Barring that fall in November, he may have beaten Ginny’s Destiny. His run at Exeter looked to be more professional and ironed out those novicey mistakes. He may be short in the market, but he’s the play. 4/1 (BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Excello looked fantastic at Ascot at the Long Walk Meeting. But came to Cheltenham on Trials Day and looked to be with a chance at the third last. He wasn’t fluent and lost all of his momentum. He’s been dropped tow pounds. But you have a feeling he’s been prepped for a run at this. 25/1 (Unibet, BetUK).

     

    Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase – 3m 2F – Premier Handicap

    Embed from Getty Images

    Once again, it’s an Irish dominated field for the Kim Muir. This race is all about the amateur jockeys, so the next big name in jumps racing could come out and win this race.

    Inothewayurthinkin is wildly stepped up in trip form two-and-a-half miles. It’s been gradual this season, but this is his biggest test. The handicapper has also given him top weight, even without a win this season. His handicap debut last time out was hampered by a faller, so can he bounce back this time?

    Embed from Getty Images

    Good Time Jonny finished in front of Inothewayurthinkin but was far behind on his start after that when 59 lengths down in third. But he was last year’s Pertemps winner and goes off the same mark this year. But there’s a big question as to whether he’s good over the bigger obstacles.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Perceval Legallois also has doubts over his jumping. Her’s fallen twice and was way behind in the Drinmore. He won on debut at Galway, but the form from the race was only franked by Meetingofthewaters. He will get the distance after winning over three miles over hurdles.

    Embed from Getty Images

    You have to go way down the market to look for the first British runner to appear. Bowtogreatness for Ben Pauling has had a mixed season but seems to be hitting the spot just at the right moment. He was beaten by Forward Plan in the Coral Trophy and just couldn’t match the winner. But he ran a stellar race in his own right and remains on the same mark as last time out.

    Verdict:

    Last year’s winner Angels Dawn could make it back-to-back in the Kim Muir. He may be 11 pounds higher than last year but ran a cracking race in the Thyestes at Gowran. He looks to have been campaigned with this race in mind and despite a high weight, can take advantage of the poor jumpers at the front of the market. 10/1 (BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Weveallbeencaught is going in one of the staying chases but looks to have a better chance here. He wasn’t on his day last time out and as a result has seen his handicap mark drop slightly. He has a liking for Cheltenham and can run to a place. 14/1 (General).

    I really hope Where It All Began runs. It was the same race Angels Dawn ran in last season on his way to winning this race. He won the Irish National Trial at a canter and has crept into the conversation after the win. He’s constantly on the improve and worth a shot if he comes here. 20/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, BetUK).

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Juvenile Races & The Bumper

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Juvenile Races & The Bumper

    The juvenile hurdles are always intriguing, but it looks like we’ve seen a standout performer already. The handicap for juveniles includes plenty of plot jobs to keep a keen eye on. And the bumper, as always, is a lottery.

     

    Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – 2m 87yds – Premier Handicap

    Embed from Getty Images

    The one key statistic to work out this race is juveniles that have lost their maiden tag. Nine out of the last 10 winners have won the race with a 1 by their name.

    Lark In The Mornin was heavily punted a few weeks ago, but missed his pre-Cheltenham run due to heavy ground. If he had run and won one of those races his price would be a lot shorter. However, he looks like he won’t be coming.

    Batman Girac has run in two Graded races and was best result fourth in a juvenile hurdle on Boxing Day. Kargese backed the form up at the DRF, which meant the handicapper had no choice but to bump him up to a harsh mark.

    Milan Tino has course form and has been consistently placed each time. Behind both Burdett Road and Sir Gino, he has plenty of form to work on. French-trained horses are often difficult to work out and Milan Tino will have to improve again.

    Ndawwi is the only one who has lost his maiden tag in Britain and Ireland, in the top four of the market. With a two-and-a-half length win, the handicapper has caught on to Gordon Elliott’s antics and has given him a harsh mark.

    Liari heads the English challenge for Paul Nicholls, to land his first Fred Winter since Diego Du Charmil eight years ago. He is the only unbeaten horse in the field after a stunning win in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle. He’s fairly weighted after his last two victories and is one of his best chances at the meeting.

    Verdict:

    Out of the principles, Liari takes the vote. His performances have been emphatic and is one of the best horses in the race. Paul Nicholls has waxed lyrical about the future he has at the yard and can defy a top weight. 11/1 (Unibet, BetUK).

    Each-way picks:

    • Miss Manzor really impressed when impressive breaking her Irish maiden at Fairyhouse after being dropped in the deep end on Boxing Day. 14/1 (General).
    • Nara looks to be a big plot job. Fourth in testing ground and was held up in the rear all the way. She’s got a great chance on the mark given. 16/1 (Unibet).
    • An Bradan Feasa presents the course form after winning in December over C&D. His performance at Musselburgh hoped to get him a lower mark, but the course form looks overpriced. 33/1 (General).

     

    Weatherbys Champion Bumper – 2m 87yds – Grade One

    Embed from Getty Images

    This race is a lottery. There Are some genuine live chances, but some that could appear at a big price which makes it open.

    Unbeaten horses occupy the top of the market, including Jalon D’oudairies. He’s been given a big break since his win over Christmas. The win wasn’t monstrous, and the form didn’t exactly back up, but looks to be laid out for the race.

    Jasmin De Vaux was superb in his victory at Naas in January. The form might not have been backed up, but double-figure length victories never go unnoticed. The combination of Munir & Souede and Willie Mullins have been dominant, and we could see a future champion hack up the hill.

    Romeo Coolio came in with a lot of potential, but had to be workmanlike on rules debut, only winning by one-and-a-quarter lengths. Gordon Elliott holds the upper hand with entries, but this could be Cullentra amateur’s Harry Swan’s pick.

    Teeshan has had two incredible victories. He hacked by 43 lengths in a point-to-point and won by seven on testing found at Exeter. Initial findings suggest that he will want the ground testing, but Nicholls says this is as best a chance he’s had in the bumper.

    The Yellow Clay has been bounced around through the various Preview nights recently. He was a bumper horse last year and won two races. He didn’t follow it up, when short of room and didn’t pick up in time, but still holds claims.

    Verdict:

    Jasmin De Vaux was by far the most impressive juvenile and looks to have plenty of pace on board to leave connections with a good feeling for next season. 6/1 (William Hill, 888Sport).

    Each-way picks: Fleur Au Fusil won the Mares Champion Bumper at the DRF. It’s not particularly produced winners, but the last mare to win the race was in 2018. The weight allowance will allow her some chance to be up in the places. 20/1 (General).

    Junta Marvel won the Mares flat race at the Punchestown Festival last year and will be getting her first run of the season in the Champion Bumper. That race provided Brucio who was successful in the Mares Handicap Hurdle at the DRF. Worth a chance at 25/1 (BetUK).

     

    JCB Triumph Hurdle – 2m 179yds – Grade One

    Embed from Getty Images

    This has one of the bankers on Friday, if not the week.

    Sir Gino was impressive when winning the trial on trial’s day, when beating Burdett Road by 10 widening lengths. He was keen at Kempton and wasn’t the most fluent over hurdles but kept going with plenty of speed. He sharpened up at could be giving Constitution Hill a run for his money in the future.

    Majborough waited a long time to make his appearance and just laboured towards the end of the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. He kept on and looked the more galloping type for the future, which will suit him on the New Course.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Kargese won the Spring Juvenile but wasn’t far behind Kala Conti over Christmas. Willie Mullins has won the race three times out of the last four years. But only two have done the Spring/Triumph double.

    Storm Heart rekindles the relationship between Gigginstown and Willie Mullins and looked to be one of the top hurdlers after a 22-length win on debut. She failed to get past Kargese in the Spring, which holds some strong form.

    Salver for Gary Moore is one of the most experienced juveniles in the field, but will want heavy, if not very soft ground, to hit the frame against a really talented field.

    Verdict:

    Sir Gino makes it no debate. Course and distance form, sharpened up over hurdles and bundles of speed make him the obvious choice and one of the bankers of the week. 8/11 (BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Majborough was highly touted before the season and offered plenty of signs of improvement in the Spring Juvenile. Price has ballooned due to Sir Gino’s presence. 6/1 (General).

    Reverse Forecast: Sir Gino, Majborough 

  • Four To Follow: Kracking Kelso

    Four To Follow: Kracking Kelso

    On what seems to be a quiet, almost normal, Saturday, there’s plenty of competitive action up in the Scottish Borders. All eyes are on Kelso for some good, clean fun with no Cheltenham chat in sight. Plus Newbury hosts the Greatwood Gold Cup alongside.

     

    Kelso

    Nice To See You, To See You…

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:17 – Premier Novice’s Hurdle (Grade Two) – Brucio @ 6/1 (BetVictor)

    Stuart Crawford and Scottish racing go almost hand in hand. He’s second in the trainers’ championship at Ayr. When he sends one over, particularly in the double green colours, it’s one to keep an eye on. Brucio won a rather average maiden hurdle at Catterick before winning at the DRF in the Listed Mares handicap hurdle by six lengths. With Jango Baie carrying a penalty, and Brucio with an allowance, the balance suggests that Brucio is top rated, and her price should be taken advantage of.

    With Nicky Henderson’s horses not firing as well as they should be, Personal Ambition looks a more worthy favourite for Ben Pauling. Heavy ground defeated him at Sandown in his last Graded race but beating Jingko Blue in his debut over hurdles as paid dividends. He is shorter than Brucio but carries more value than the fav. 4/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Salsa, Shimmy and Shake

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:50 – Morebattle Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Salsada @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Salsada comes into this race of a 315 day break. She’s wanted to run three times this season already but has been withdrawn for a number of reasons. She was last seen finishing fifth in the Scottish Champion Hurdle won by Rubaud who has franked the form to some extent this season. Her run before that saw her finishing second to Epatante, so she’s a good horse in her own right. She comes in on a four-pound lower mark which makes her an appealing wight for the race.

    Anyharminasking holds an entry for the County Hurdle and is looking for the £100,000 bonus of winning the Morebattle and, maybe, the County. Jonjo O’Neill has had an up and down time with him this season, but his rating of 136 did put him second at Newbury. It’s clear from the last couple of runs that two-and-a-half miles hasn’t suited so well, but the drop back should be better in order to prep for the big handicap a week on Friday. 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    Bass Rock has been chasing for a while and Sandy Thomson has elected to drop him back to hurdles. Which has left him subject to a massive gamble. He was last seen over hurdles at Ayr in 2022 when winning over further. The handicapper has taken his chasing form into account and has dropped him three pounds. This makes little to no sense and is a perfect opportunity for Bass Rock. 25/1 (Boylesports).

     

    Sometimes, The Old Ones Are The Best

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:25 – Premier Chase (Listed) – Aye Right @ 3/1 (General)

    Aye Right is one tough old horse. Monbeg Genius is being prepped for the National, but it’s likely he should get in off a mark of 147. It looks more logical for Aye Right. This race is his Gold Cup. He’s had a superb, yet unlucky season, with two seconds and a third. There’s no stopping his tenacity and will have been prepped to be in the form of his life for today.

     

    Newbury

    Give It Some Gust

    Embed from Getty Images

    1:55 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Chase (Premier Handicap) – Gustavian @ 12/1 (General)

    The ground at Newbury is bottomless. Friday’s last race was almost won by a furlong by a horse who relishes heavy ground. Therefore, the handicap element disappears and heavy ground horses are to be hammered. Gustavian has by far and away the best record on the ground. He’s also handicapped incredibly well after unseating at the second. So long as he doesn’t do that again, he’ll be bang up there.

    Grandeur D’Ame is a much shorter price and seemed to be having a good season before unseating at the first on Trials Day at Cheltenham. He’s versatile on all sorts of ground, including heavy which he’s won on this season. He remains on a ridiculous rating after being dropped three pounds for finishing fourth in a big handicap at Cheltenham. 4/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, BetUK).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Last Chance Saloon

    Four To Follow: Last Chance Saloon

    With three weeks to go until the Cheltenham Festival, some are running out of time to find an appropriate prep race. But Kempton could provide a last chance with three Grade Two races and a big-money handicap too. Plus, we look ahead to the Grand National with the Eider Chase and the Winter Derby moves up to Southwell from Lingfield, to complete this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Kempton

    Patron Pay Day

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:27 – Pendil Novice’s Chase (Grade Two) – Le Patron @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The Scilly Isles’ was his first no-show of the season, but it’s clear that he wasn’t suited by the front-running tactics of Nickle Back. Because of that, his jumping display was quite poor. With no identified pace in the field, it should be back to normal for Le Patron, who is a two-time winner at this level and will feel at home going right-handed at Kempton. Even with a five-pound penalty, he’s still the best rated horse and should be taken seriously.

     

    The Wizard Of Odds

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:37 – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier) – Blackjack Magic @ 13/2 (Boylesports)

    There’s a key bit of form for this race which comes from November. The Ascot Silver Cup’s top four horses have all won since. Two feature in this race today, including Blackjack Magic. He hasn’t set the world alight since winning the Badger Beers at Wincanton, but he’s handicapped back to a nice mark of 138. This was the same mark he was back in November, when making a mistake at the last when running a cracker. He as every chance of running another again.

    Unanswered Prayers doesn’t look the most attractive on recent form. A fall and an unseat, bookended by two fifths don’t’ make it for good reading. However, he ran a big race when battling for second at the last fence with Grand National Trial winner Yeah Man. His form for the next race at Ascot also holds up too. He’s off the same mark for the Sodexo Gold Cup and can run a massive race at a massive price, 25/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Newcastle

    Duck For Cover

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:08 – Eider Handicap Chase – Fenland Tiger @ 6/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Fun fact: and Eider is a duck. But today is about the Tiger. Everyone may be looking towards Anglers Crag, but the handicapper has had a field day raising him a massive 11lbs after a hattrick of wins. That will be hard to overcome, when he’s stepping up in class too.

    Fenland Tiger can take advantage of that massive rise in the weights, and the heavy ground up at Gosforth Park. He’s likes extreme distances, winning over three-and-a-quarter miles at Doncaster at the start of the year. He faces another rise of seven pounds, but with the ground as it is he has to be favoured a little too big of a price.

    Tommie Beau is another who can take advantage of the boggy conditions. He’s won two ‘Nationals’ already (Durham and Southern) and second in the Sussex National too. Heavy ground + extreme distance suits him to a tee and the mark he’s been given won’t trouble him. Nice even price at 8/1 (General).

    One rain lover at a bigger price is Rath An Iuir. Despite making a big jump from class four to class two, he ran in last year’s Eider and is on a three-pound lower mark this time around. Heavy ground helped him in his win at Kelso over the Festive period and sneaks in at the bottom end of the weights. Each-way claims at 12/1 (General).

     

    Southwell

    A Last Hurrah?

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:20 – BetUK Winter Derby Stakes (Group Three) – Lord North @ 13/8 (General)

    Lord North has been a world class horse, but we haven’t seen him since he won the Dubai Turf at the World Cup Festival last year. It’s clear that John & Thady Gosden want him to come here, before one last big international plunder. He’s 11lbs clear of the rest on level weights, and it makes little to no sense why he’s odds-against.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Pic-ture That

    Four To Follow: Pic-ture That

    It’s the final Grade One before the Cheltenham Festival, the Ascot Chase, with one horse in particular looking to make a big impression on the Gold Cup market. There’s also the intriguing Swinley Chase and Grand National Trial up at Haydock. Plus, the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton to make up this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Ascot

    Victtori’s In The Bag

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Injured Jockeys Fund Ambassadors Programme Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier) – Victtorino @ 100/30 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    So far Victtorino is two for two at Ascot. His only blip this season came at Cheltenham, when stepped down in trip, and he didn’t seem to handle it. Now back to an ideal trip, he’s only four pounds higher than his previous winning mark, the same rise in the weights for his first win at Ascot. He holds no entry for Cheltenham and will have been aimed for this race instead.

    Revels Hill makes great each-way appeal, despite this being his first start of the season. He races off the same mark he was for this race last season, 137, when finishing third. Trainer Harry Fry says that he’s a spring horse, and in ideal spring-like conditions he should relish the competition and finish a lot nearer this time. Worth having at 13/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Easy Pic

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:36 – Ascot Chase (Grade One) – Pic D’Orhy @ 15/8 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    Despite having an entry in the Ryanair, Pic D’Orhy should miss Cheltenham. This race is his Cheltenham. Second to a certain Shishkin last year, his unbeaten streak was ended from a tough performance by Banbridge at Kempton. L’Homme Presse is taking the odd route of going intermediate before long-distance and might just want an extra run before the main aim. Interesting to see Ahoy Senor in here, but Aintree will be the time to back him. Pic D’Orhy has been trained for this race all season you feel.

     

    Haydock

    Aiming For Grand Gold

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:15 – Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Premier) – My Silver Lining @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    When My Silver Lining won at Warwick, the cogs turned for Emma Lavelle and team. The Grand National is the aim for this horse and needs to win, at least, another race to be considered. With good form on heavy ground, a low weight in the race and never dropping below second in his last five races, it makes sense to go for him on his path to the Grand National.

    However, a winner of the Grand National Trial has never won the Grand National in the same year (Party Politics won the National the year before, Red Rum won his first two Nationals before his win in the Trial).

    Iwilldoit has had some time to readjust his mark back to a decent handicapping standard. His third in the Fleur De Lys made sure of that and is back competing, even better with jockey Dylan Johnston claiming five pounds. He’s lightly raced, with decent experience on heavy ground and seasoned long-distance travellers have a good record in the race. Nicely priced at 7/1 (General) to win his first race in over a year.

    Chambard still holds a chance at this race, despite being raised seven pounds for his win in the Becher Chase. It didn’t go to plan in the Welsh National, but Haydock may suit a little better with no undulations. And, going on his run in the Becher, there’s no one better in the race that can handle bottomless ground. Outside price, but not an outside chance at 22/1 (General).

     

    Wincanton

    Give You A Clue

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:05 – Kingwell Hurdle (Grade Two) – Colonel Mustard @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    The only reason Rubaud can’t be backed is because of a hefty penalty he carries. That gives Colonel Mustard a big advantage, now back over hurdles after a disappointing time chasing. Plenty in this field won’t like the heavy ground, but Colonel Mustard is the best rated horse and has the value going for him as Rubaud drifts in the market.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day Two

    Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day Two

    We head to Dublin for Ireland’s biggest weekend in racing. After the almighty shock of Marine Nationale being downed by Il Etait Temps and the excellent majesty of Galopin Des Champs, it ended up being a disappointing day for the page yesterday. But we look up and head into a new day, armed with the best tips around.

     

    Leopardstown

    Warrior Has A Weakness. FACT.

    Embed from Getty Images

    1:10 – Novice Chase (Turner’s Trial) (Grade 1) – Fact To File @ 2/1 (General)

    If there’s one weakness that Gaelic Warrior has, it’s jumping right-handed. He may have been flawless last year over hurdles, but chasing is a whole different aspect and in a high-quality field, every mistake is costly.

    Fact To File thrashed Zanahiyr over Christmas by 17 lengths, and over C&D. He seems primed to head to the Turner’s, whereas stablemate Gaelic Warrior doesn’t.

    Grangeclare West is one who has been overlooked in the field after winning a Grade One is a high-quality field. Whilst his destination may be over further, he won’t mind stepping back in trip and 9/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports) is far too big. A Fact To File & Grangeclare West reverse forecast may be the bet of the race.

     

    Gallop To Glory

    Embed from Getty Images

    1:50 – Tattersalls Novice Hurdle (Grade One) – Farren Glory @ 18/5 (BetVictor)

    If it hadn’t been for a heavy fall at the second last, Farren Glory would have blitzed the field in the Formby Novices’ Hurdle. The form is clear that he wouldn’t have beaten much after Florida Dreams disappointed at Musselburgh yesterday. He’s still a Grade One winner all in all and Ballyburn did show a chink in his armour on debut, and also didn’t beat much in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown.

     

    You Know What I’m Thinkin’?

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:20 – Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade Three) – Inothewayurthinkin @ 6/1 (General)

    Inothewayurthinkin brings plenty of quality form to the table in this race. A novice still, he’s finished behind Gaelic Warrior twice. He’s slightly up in distance, which won’t trouble him at all. His first handicap mark is generous enough and can make a big impact in a big handicap.

    Heart Wood also has standout novice form, including finishing behind Grangeclare West before he backed it up in a Grade One. With that sort of form, and not being beaten that far behind Grangeclare West, the handicapper took into account his previous run when not up to it against Blood Destiny. He’ll handle the trip and is generously priced at 8/1 (General).

    Lucid Dreams could run a big race, over an untried trip for John Patrick Ryan. He ran a great race behind Uncle Phil in the Dan & Joan Moore and showed signs of staying potential. It’s a big ask and a big hike in distance, but his last win was comfortable over two-and-a-half miles and can recreate that winning feeling under a good claiming ride. On the drift, however, now 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Musselburgh

    Hear The Thunder

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – Scottish Champion Chase (H’cap Chase) – Thunder Rock @7/2 (William Hill)

    There’s no doubt Gavin Sheehan has had the season of his life. Multiple big race wins has just shown how talented a jockey he really is. It’s possibly why Max McNeil and Olly Murphy have chosen him to part with Thunder Rock, with Sean Bowen back to riding on Monday and Adrian Heskin over in Ireland. After disappointing in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, he’s back in a ‘lesser’ race where he doesn’t carry top weight and gives him a fighting chance.

    And it wouldn’t be Musselburgh without Scottish-trained winners. Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox are the leaders in their respective championships at the track and saddle Corrigeen Rock. He finished second on New Year’s Day over two-and-a-half miles and the step back in trip off a pound higher mark, but there looks to be plenty of improvement from him. Generous at 15/2 (General).

    The very best of luck!