Best Of Bets

Tag: cheltenham festival

  • Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day One

    Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day One

    We head to Dublin for Ireland’s biggest weekend in racing. All the stable stars come out to strut their stuff before they stuff the British at Cheltenham. It’s always a good indicator to see where each Willie Mullins runner will be heading to in March, but there is a bit of value to be found in the slightly more open novice races. Plus there’s a decent card at Sandown to keep an eye on in today’s Four To Follow.

     

    Leopardstown

    Grades Count

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    1:20 – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – Loughglynn @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    It’s telling which horse Paul Townend picks to ride in each race for Mullins, and the market is always keen to latch on. I feel though, he’s chosen the wrong horse. Predators Gold hasn’t raced above two-and-a-half miles and was beaten, in heavy ground, last time out. The inexperience may show here.

    Loughglynn is a far more accomplished novice. His win at Grade Two level at Limerick over Christmas showed that this horse has an engine to stay. It won’t be as boggy as Limerick, so has momentum to build on from his maiden win at Punchestown. Well backed Jetara has been running against the girls so far and might find this race a bit too hot.

     

    Mullins & McManus

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    1:50 – Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade One) – Majborough @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Once again Townend has opted to go for the Gigginstown colours in Storm Heart, who looked like a Grade One juvenile when obliterating his rivals in the mud.

    But there was talk of Majborough early in the season and I’ve been excited to see this horse appear. It’s a sign you’re a good horse when JP McManus buys you. It’s even better when he sends you to Closutton. It becomes even more exciting when you’re first race in Ireland is in a Grade One. If that’s how much connections think of him, there must be something in the water.

     

    Sandown

    Patron Only

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    2:35 – Scilly Isles’ Novices’ Chase (Grade One) – Le Patron @ 7/2 (General)

    Le Patron is the only Grade One winner in the field. And despite Harry Cobden saying that Hermes Allen was at his best in the Kauto Star on Boxing Day, he still got beat. Le Patron won in bottomless over two miles, but he seemed at his best when winning over C&D back in November. JPR One gave the form a boost when winning the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Lingfield a couple of weeks ago.

    The other big trend is that Paul Nicholls hasn’t won this race since 2009 and it’s unclear if this will be a stepping stone for Hermes Allen to the Festival. This is a race that Le Patron has been trained for.

     

    Racing West

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    3:10 – Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – West Balboa @ 8/1 (Betfred)

    West Balboa always comes alive in handicaps at this level, and she seems primed once more. After finishing way back in the Long Walk field, she’s had a rest and is back under top weight. Tristan Durell takes off a crucial three pounds to make her mark a little more accessible and she can out race this field in these conditions, which could set her up nicely for a shot at the Pertemps.

    Good Luck Charm was an outside chance in the Lanzarote at Kempton but outran her odds to finish fourth and within a length to favourite Impose Toi. Stepped up in distance, she remains on the same mark and is weighted towards the very bottom of the field. She’s been priced more fairly at 10/1 (Boylesports) but has a huge chance of running to them this time around.

    Equinus won by five lengths at Aintree way back in October and has had some respectable finishes in class two company. James Turner has been booked once again, and conditions will suit the Nigel Twiston-Davies horse. Extra places will useful if backing this horse at 20/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • New Year Day Racing Belle with a Lion heart

    New Year Day Racing Belle with a Lion heart

    What better way to kick off 2024 than some New Year’s Day Racing across the likes of Cheltenham, Fairyhouse, and Tramore?

    As many will know, Cheltenham is a local track of mine and as such, I’ll be attending Monday’s meeting, but horses are running in both the UK and Ireland that I’m keen to keep onside.

    So, for the first column in 2024, here are my full fancies.

     

    Win Bets

    12:30 Tramore – Belle The Lioness @ 4/1

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    Anyone who took note of my pre-Cheltenham Festival chat around the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle will know my love for Belle The Lioness.

    She didn’t live up to my hype when it came to March, but with a summer on her back and race fitness on her side, I’m backing her to return to the winners’ enclosure on her handicap debut.

    The seven-year-old first came onto my radar after her staying-on second to Liberty Dance, a 131-rated mare, at Thurles in December. The Model Kingdom was back in third, who is also rated in the 130s, and she managed to get relatively near Impaire Et Passe on her next start at Punchestown.

    Although she was disappointing at Wexford in November, her run suggests that she either badly needed it or hated the ground. With form on soft to heavy from her bumper victory in April 2022, one would suggest that it was her lack of race fitness that contributed to her defeat.

    Hopefully, Henry de Bromhead has her back because off a mark of 119, I think she could be well-handicapped.

     

    2:10 Exeter – Geezer Rockstar @ 7/4

    Over at Exeter, another horse who I’ve been excited to see this season is Geezer Rockstar and he is set to make his second start over hurdles.

    Harry Fry’s five-year-old was slightly disappointing on hurdles debut at Taunton last-time-out, but I’m not willing to give up on him based on what he showed at Taunton in a bumper in April.

    Furthermore, the opposition at Exeter doesn’t look the strongest; Pentire Head is probably his best rival based on his second to Johnnywho at Taunton in March, but he is still a work in progress and will likely be better next season.

    With this in mind, Geezer Rockstar deserves respect and has plenty of scope to return to the winners’ enclosure.

     

     

    3:50 Cheltenham – La Marquise @ 5/2

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    In the last at Cheltenham, La Marquise impressed immensely on her first start at Stratford in early November.

    Having spoken to Jamie Snowden prior to her first run, he was hoping for a good run though she was always going to come on for her debut outing.

    She certainly did produce a “good run” as the four-year-old by Beaumec De Houelle, a first-season sire who beat Pic D’Orhy in the Grade 1 Prix Cambaceres in 2018, quickened away nicely on soft ground to win by two lengths. Gavin Sheehan only required one use of the whip at Stratford, so there should be more to come.

    Both the second, Love Tree, and the fifth, Dameofthecotswolds, have won since, so hopefully La Marquise can oblige in receipt of weight from the boys.

     

    Each-way Bets

    1:20 Catterick – Chase A Fortune @ 12/1

    Small fields have made each-way options difficult at Cheltenham, though there’s a chance that Chase A Fortune could be well-handicapped over at Catterick.

    The Chris Grant-trained six-year-old has underperformed in handicap company this season which has been slightly surprising based on his 15-length maiden hurdle success over course and distance in February.

    Looking at his previous form in novice hurdles, the Cannock Chase gelding was racing against eventual 120-rated horses like Chapel Green, Don Hollow, and Astromachia.

    Since then, the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 105 and with his previous form on soft ground, today could see him return to his best.

     

    2:40 Cheltenham – My Bobby Dazzler @ 12/1

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    In a race full of questions – namely, if a few improving horses can handle a rise in the weights – it looks as if My Boby Dazzler could do some damage off a handy mark of 119.

    Mel Rowley’s nine-year-old has a fair record around Prestbury Park based on his two fourth-place efforts in the 2021-22 season.

    Although he has promising form on good ground, namely when behind The Changing Man and Young Butler in a valuable handicap at Haydock in April, he bolted up on deplorable ground in December 2021 off a mark of 118.

    Connections tried their hand at fences with My Bobby Dazzler and he did well to win at Worcester in June before a good fourth at Ludlow on his last start, though the Malinas gelding is back over hurdles which should suit him.

    His last few runs have suggested the old spark is still there and if that is the case, today could be a good day to keep the faith.

  • Cheltenham October Meeting Tips | In Byrnes we trust

    Cheltenham October Meeting Tips | In Byrnes we trust

    The Cheltenham October Meeting signifies that the jumps are well and truly back in town.

    Whether you love seeing two-mile hurdlers rattle around the banked course of Prestbury Park, or you prefer watching a three-mile chasing slug it out from the front, the home of jump racing has a bit of everything today.

    As is the case every week, the three horses below are my strongest fancies on what is a tricky day at HQ.

    1:15 Cheltenham – Haddex Des Obeaux @ 5/2 – 1pt Win

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    The opening contest at Cheltenham is a great two-mile handicap chase with horses like Before Midnight, Red Rookie, and Notlongtillmay providing good depth.

    That being said, I’m with the favourite to kick off the day as Haddex Des Obeaux is a horse I have lots of time for.

    The French-bred six-year-old had a turbulent season for Gary Moore last season thanks to two victories, one unlucky second, and an unseating on seasonal debut.

    However, the class he showed on his last two starts of the season proved to many why he could be a Graded horse in time.

    The first of which occurred at Doncaster where he made all to beat Coastguard Staton, Nero Rock and Datsalrightgino, the latter being a horse who is rated 11 pounds higher and is a Grade 2-winning novice chaser.

    Less than three weeks later, he jumped brilliantly on heavy ground to bolt up by 19 lengths before he suffered a setback and Moore called time on his season.

    Off an official rating of 146 today, it looks as if connections have a horse for Graded races further down the line so making use of his lenient handicap mark is a good way to kick off the season.

    Although In Excelsis Deo looks like an interesting proposition on just his fifth start over fences for Harry Fry and is probably the each-way angle into a race like this, Haddex Des Obeaux is a horse I like and hopefully, he can reward my love for him in the opener.

    3:00 Cheltenham – Gortmillish @ 12/1 – 1pt EW

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    As is the case with many Pertemps Qualifiers, they are tough races to find a strong bet in, though the 12/1 price of Gortmillish has caught my attention.

    Trained by Gordon Elliott, someone who is partial to a Cheltenham winner at The Showcase, the seven-year-old comes to Prestbury Park with the standard Irish tax applied to his handicap mark, though the five-pound claim of Danny Gilligan (on his only ride at Cheltenham today) should help diminish that.

    The three-mile point-to-point winner scored twice for Cullentra House Stables over hurdles in the summer; once over two miles when well-fancied at Perth and once over 2m6f at Downpatrick three weeks later.

    The form of his success two starts ago has worked out well since as the second, Charlie Luciano, beat Elliott’s Calico on his next start and the third, Lisnamult Lad, now has an official rating of 131 having bolted up by a combined 44.5 lengths on his next two starts for John McConnell.

    For a horse rated 123 over in the UK, that in isolation makes him look like a well-handicapped horse, and the fact he finished a staying-on second to My Mate Mozzie in at Punchestown bumper in April 2021 further adds to that idea.

    If Elliott thinks Gortmillish could be a potential for the Pertemps Final in March, winning today would help improve his handicap mark to make sure he gets into the race, so today could be the day to catch him.

    3:35 Cheltenham – Reverend Hubert @ 4/1 – 2pt Win

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    The Irish have a strong hand in the three-mile novice hurdle later today, though I’m steering away from the head of the market and putting my trust in Reverend Hubert for Charles and Philip Byrnes.

    Firstly, I think that Willie Mullins’ High Class Hero is quite a smart novice hurdler, so it comes with the territory that if a horse can get to within six lengths of him, they might be above average.

    That’s what Reverend Hubert did on his last start 35 days ago on the softer-than-ideal ground at Listowel having travelled well into the race around the outside of the field.

    High Class Hero bolted up by seven lengths on his next start, franking the form for Charles Byrnes’ five-year-old.

    The former Richard Hannon-trained gelding, who achieved a career-high mark of 86 on the Flat in 2022, broke his maiden tag over hurdles when a facile eight-length winner at Downpatrick on good ground in August; the second, Ringdufferin, won two-on-the-bounce after that and actually runs in the Pertemps Qualifier in the race before.

    With form over two miles on the Flat, I see no reason why Reverend Hubert won’t stay three miles and his experience could see him get the better of Antrim Coast, Gavin Cromwell’s thrice-raced five-year-old who heads the market.