Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Cheltenham 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Bookies blew a huge sigh of relief as El Fabiolo pulled up in the Champion Chase, ruining some punters multiples. But this page still managed to tip up four more winners and a place in the five remaining races. This puts us in profit for the week so far and we aim to do it again today for Cheltenham Day Three.

     

    NAP: Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Brighterdaysahead @ 6/4 (William Hill, BetUK)

    Despite being a new race, this year’s renewal looks a hot contest. But Brighterdaysahead is held in the highest regard in the Elliott stable. She adores this type of ground and two double-figure winning distances show that she’s full of talent. Cheltenham has been on the agenda since her first run over hurdles.

    Don’t disregard Jade De Grugy, however. She won a hot looking Grade Three in Ireland by six-and-a-half lengths. However, no horse from that race has backed the form up which calls into question how weak this division is. The same can be said for Brighterdaysahead, but her victories have been more impressive.

    Majestic Force has a good each-way chance in the race after winning over further and beating the boys in a maiden hurdle on testing ground. Henry de Bromhead has managed to find a winner in the first two days and can end up with another at a big price. 28/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    E/W BET: Turners Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Iroko @ 13/2 (General)

    I have a bit of affection for Iroko. He’s the flagbearer for Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero and has come on leaps and bounds to be here. After impressing at Warwick in November, he picked up an injury that seemingly rules him out for the season. Now the trainers have have back to 100%, he has the ability to try and notch up his second win in as many Festivals. Despite one run over fences, he jumped well at Warwick and has a big engine too.

    Grey Dawning should get the better of Ginny’s Destiny here, despite the latter being a three-time course winner. Grey Dawning hit the second last when these two both met at Cheltenham in November. If it wasn’t for that mistake he may have won the race. His jumping has since improved and has potential to go much further. 9/4 (General).

     

    Handicap Best: Trustatrader Plate Chase (Premier) – Crebilly @ 9/2 (William Hill, BetUK)

    I seriously think that Crebilly has plenty of ability about him and has been campaigned with this race in mind. His win on heavy ground was tough but proves he’s got an engine. The form might not have been backed up, and it may have been against two opponents, but the handicapper has only risen him a pound. He’s made a few mistakes at Cheltenham in the past, but that seemed to be solved at Exeter.

    Saint Felicien enjoyed his first success over fences last time out beating Aime Desjy. He’s improved with each run, reducing the gap between first and second each time before going on to win. On form he seems to handle the heavy conditions. Whilst Elliott hasn’t won a handicap yet, all his horses are campaigned with these sorts of races in mind. 9/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Selections:

    13:30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Grey Dawning @ 9/4 (General), IROKO (E/W) @ 13/2 (General)

    14:10 – Pertemps Final (Premier) – Cuthbert Dibble e/w @ 9/1 (Boylesports, BetUK), Gabbys Cross e/w @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred), Springwell Bay e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, BetUK)

    14:50 – Ryanair Chase (GRADE ONE) – Stage Star @ 5/1 (General), Ga Law e/w @ 25/1 (General)

    15:30 – Stayers’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Teahupoo @ 7/4 (General), Noble Yeats e/w @ 13/2 (General), Paisley Park e/w @ 12/1 (General)

    16:10 – Trustatrader Plate H’cap Chase (Premier) – CREBILLY (HB) @ 9/2 (William Hill, BetUK), Saint Felicien @ 9/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    16:50 – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (NAP) @ 6/4 (William Hill, BetUK), Majestic Force e/w @ 28/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    17:30 – Kim Muir Challenge Cup – Angels Dawn @ 10/1 (William Hill), Where It All Began @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    The very best of luck!

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Day Two Selections and Naps

    Cheltenham 2024 | Day Two Selections and Naps

    Day One was a great start for the Cheltenham punters. Gaelic Warrior, State Man & Lossiemouth all came through in the end, to thrash the bookies. Day Two has three odds-on shots, but are they going to win?

    NAP: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – FACT TO FILE @ 5/6 (William Hill, Betfred)

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    Fact To File is one of the best young novices we’ve seen this year. He went and proved that by beating Gaelic Warrior at a canter. The fact that Willie Mullins announced where he was going first also spoke of the confidence he has in this horse. Willie Mullins could notch 100 winners yesterday and this could be one of the most talented, who could end up in the Gold Cup next year.
    With the ground as it is, I wouldn’t be going near Stay Away Fay. But Monty’s Star is a little interesting. He was third behind Corbetts Cross on debut, of which he duly delivered yesterday. Then he produced a stunning round of jumping on New Year’s Eve to beat Three Card Brag. It’s a big step up from beginners Chase to Grade One, but he may well be able to handle it. 6/1 (William Hill).

    E/W BET: Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Handstands @ 14/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Betfred)

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    In a market that is dominated by the Irish, much like the race will be, the British aren’t without hope. Ben Pauling enjoyed a good day yesterday at Cheltenham with Twig finishing second in the Ultima and he could earn another valuable place.

    Unbeaten in his career, Handstands beat Grade One winner Jango Baie and Huntingdon in a Listed Novice Hurdle. He also had some dominating victories before his step up to Listed level before. Whilst he hasn’t experienced heavy ground under rules, he has won it on his only run, and win, in point-ot-point. There’s no worry about the ground, but he’ll be bang in there with a chance to place.

     

    Handicap Best: Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – Built By Ballymore @ 9/2 (Unibet)

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    This is another race that could be dominated by favourites. And with the ground as it is, everyone has latched onto the Built By Ballymore train and have slashed his odds. I mentioned in my preview that I though he had a great chance if the rain came, and his prayers have been answered. The handicapper has not been harsh on him at all and comes into mid-division on the weights.

    Each-way prices are often double figures, but there’s just something about Sa Majeste and Langer Dan that I can’t escape. It seems like poor punting going for the top three in the market, but when the handicapper says Sa Majeste is the most difficult horse he’s had to handicap, be sure that he’s got it wrong. He beat Noble Yeats, who went and won the Cleeve Hurdle since, on heavy ground at Limerick. 6/1 (William Hill).

    Everyone noticed what Dan Skelton was doing midway through the season with Langer Dan. The magic number of 143 appeared, but came in difficult circumstances. When ulcers were found on him, many thought that was Cheltenham abandoned. But the Alcester trainer confirmed he was 100%, just ready enough to turn up to Cheltenham. 8/1 (William Hill).

     

    Selections:

    13:30 – Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Ballyburn*^ @ 2/5 (General), HANDSTANDS E/W @ 14/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Betfred)

    14:10 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – FACT TO FILE (NAP)^ @ 5/6 (William Hill, Betfred), Monty’s Star @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    14:50 – Coral Cup (Premier) – BUILT BY BALLYMORE @ 9/2 (Unibet), Sa Majeste @ 6/1 (William Hill), Langer Dan @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    15:30 – Queen Mother Champion Chase (GRADE ONE) – El Fabiolo* @ 1/2 (General)

    16:10 – Cross-Country Chase – Minella Indo @ 100/30 (William Hill, BetUK), Coko Beach (R/F)

    16:50 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Premier) – Path D’Oroux @ 12/1 (William Hill), Hardy Du Seuil @ 10/1 (General)

    17:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (GRADE ONE) – Jasmin De Vaux @ 11/2 (Unibet), Junta Marvel @ 16/1 (Unibet, BetUK), Fleur Au Fusil @ 14/1 (William Hill)

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Day One: Selections and Naps

    Cheltenham 2024 | Day One: Selections and Naps

    All the build-up has led to this. All the talk and previews can finally end. Cheltenham. Is. Back. And we kick off in style with the roar of all roars. We kick off with the supreme and head on to a competitive Arkle, followed by two superstars of the turf. Here are my tips for Day One.

     

    NAP: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade One) – JERIKO DU REPONET @ 15/2 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

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    I think that the first five in the market hold all the aces, but there’s big weaknesses to each horse at the head of the market.

    Tullyhill slows on his jumping, which is concerning coming into what is usually a fast-paced race. No horse round Cheltenham can jump like he did. The form from his Listed win at Punchestown is yet to be tested.

    Mystical Power, for me, is all hype and no substance. The form from the Moscow Flyer hasn’t worked out, and there hasn’t been a winner of the Moscow Flyer/Supreme since Cheltenham legend Douvan in 2015.

    Slade Steel is only avoiding Ballyburn, which is cowardly behaviour from Henry de Bromhead. Particularly when this horse looks more like a Baring Bingham horse than a Supreme.

    Firefox was wrongly stepped up in distance last time out, and Ballyburn is the only horse to frank the form in the 24 strong field. He hasn’t proved himself at this level.

    Therefore, I’ve landed on Jeriko Du Reponet. He was workmanlike at Doncaster, but his previous tow runs at Newbury looked very stylish. His form from the Grade Two at Doncaster has worked out a treat, with the second and third the one-two at Kempton, and El Elefante winning at Ayr on Friday. Wearing the first colours of JP McManus isn’t always a sign but take not of it.

    Take note of Mistergif. Never ignore a horse with an 18-length victory on debut and could run a cracking race if there’s not much pace on. 11/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    E/W BET: Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade One) – Master Chewy @ 16/1 (General)

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    Despite everyone saying that JPR One is the best British hope for the race, they can’t rule out Master Chewy. JPR One was idling in the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Lingfield and was nowhere near convincing to be raised up to the dizzying heights of 150.

    For Master Chewy, he’s won a Graded race in supreme fashion at Kempton over Christmas. Of which, Nickle Back backed the form up in the Scilly Isles’ Chase at Sandown. His run in the lightning was severely hampered by Djelo at the first and never got going after that, so draw a line through the run.

    Gaelic Warrior can’t jump left-handed, which beggars’ belief why he’s favourite. Il Etait Temps wants further and JPR One is unreliable. Master Chewy is the e/w angle in the Arkle.

     

    Handicap Best: Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier) – Chianti Classico @ 7/1 (BetUK)

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    Cheltenham trainer Kim Bailey will always have his horses prepped for whichever race he aims them towards. Chianti Classico has been a massive project. He pulled up in last year’s Albert Bartlett but has come back this season looking like a different animal. His successes at Kempton and Chepstow are well noted and has come into the Ultima and a low weight. Novices have seemed to have the upper hand in the Ultima in recent years and Bailey likes the look of what Chianti Classico brings to the table.

    His stablemate Trelawne is also a fascinating horse. He’ll relish the softer conditions on the Tuesday and has plenty to build on from his Exeter run. His run at Cheltenham was good behind both Ginny’s Destiny and Grey Dawning, managing to finish two-and-a-half lengths in front of Crebilly. He’s only a pound higher in the weights than his stablemate. The, always, in-form Harry Cobden takes the ride. 8/1 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK).

    Minella Crooner was not at his best in the Bobbyjo Chase. He doesn’t stay much over three-and-a-half miles after he pulled up in last year’s National Hunt Chase and the Porterstown Chase. He’s run two good races, however, with a close third in the New Year’s Day Chase and a win in the M.W Hickey Memorial Chase. He’s only sightly better off at the weights than his stablemate but has a chance of outrunning his odds. 25/1 (William Hill, BetUK).

     

    Selections:

    13:30 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – JERIKO DU REPONET (NAP) @ 15/2 (Boylesports, BetUK), Mistergif 11/1 e/w (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    14:10 – Arkle Challenge Trophy (GRADE ONE) – Found A Fifty @ 7/1 (Unibet, William Hill), Hunters Yarn (R/F), MASTER CHEWY E/W @ 16/1 (General)

    14:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier) – CHIANTI CLASSICO @ 7/1 (BetUK), Trelawne @ 8/1 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK), Minella Crooner @ 25/1 (William Hill, BetUK)

    15:30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Nemean Lion (W/O State Man) @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    16:10 – Mares’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Love Envoi (W/O Lossiemouth) @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    16:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – Liari @ 9/1 (William Hill, Betfred), Nara e/w @ 12/1 (General), Miss Manzor e/w @ 14/1 (General), An Bradan Feasa e/w @ 25/1 (General)

    17:30 – Maureen Mullins National Hunt Chase (Grade Two) – Corbetts Cross @ 9/4 (General)

    The very best of luck!

  • Cheltenham Festival 2024 Day 1 | The Master is underrated

    Cheltenham Festival 2024 Day 1 | The Master is underrated

    Cheltenham Festival 2024 is finally here, where months of build-up come to fruition in either the right or wrong ways.

    Across the next four pieces, I’m going to talk through all 28 races with my main thoughts in a short and snappy summary.

    Enough of the introduction; let’s begin.

     

    Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Firefox @ 6/1 with William Hill & Tellherthename @ 25/1 with BetVictor

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    Ballyburn’s absence from the Supreme has left the race a bit more open, and that has allowed me to side with Firefox.

    A first glance at his profile reveals he beat Ballyburn at the start of the season over two miles on soft ground, which shows he has class, and he beat another highly-touted Willie Mullins-trained horse in Ile Atlantique at Fairyhouse last April.

    On his last start, he was sent off a well-fancied 15/8 and could only manage fourth, but the Lawlor’s Of Naas came in a bad patch for the Gordon Elliott yard and he returned home from the race lame.

    With the ground likely to be softer on the Tuesday, conditions should suit well.

    Speaking of conditions, my long-term each-way play into this race has been Tellherthename, but the slower ground would generate some cause for concern considering he was pulled out of the Betfair Hurdle due to the heavy surface.

    Still, away from that, his form reads favourably.

    Having beaten Envoi Allen’s full brother, Joyau Allen, by five lengths in a point-to-point, he finished second to Jango Baie, a subsequent Grade 1 winner, at Ascot on hurdles debut and then put 14 lengths between himself and Lucky Place, a horse who ran Gidleigh Park close at Cheltenham.

    I’m a fan of the way he deals with his hurdles as regains his galloping stride on the landing side with efficiency, and the end-to-end gallop that the Supreme will deliver could bring out the stamina that he possesses.

     

    Arkle Novices’ Chase – Gaelic Warrior @ 5/2 with Boylesports & Master Chewy @ 16/1 with BetVictor

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    Since the end of the Dublin Racing Festival, the horse I’ve kept onside for the Arkle is Master Chewy, though I didn’t expect to see Gaelic Warrior declared on Sunday morning.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies’ seven-year-old has found the winners’ enclosure twice this season, though it’s his most recent start that intrigues me the most.

    He beat Nickle Back, a subsequent Grade 1 winner, in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase while still jumping out to his left.

    Forgive his last run as stablemate Matata nearly took him out at the start, and his profile is interesting coming into this.

    Saying that, Gaelic Warrior is a horse I’m keeping onside due to his raw talent.

    On the recent Only Fools Love Horses Cheltenham Preview, Danny Mullins suggested his run at the Dublin Racing Festival was an off day, and videos of his work in the days after showed all was seemingly well.

    He set such a vicious pace in the early parts of that Ladbrokes Novice Chase at Leopardstown, so one could argue a fast-run Arkle should plenty to his strengths.

    On his day, he is the best of these in here, and while his right-handed jumping is a concern, that is accounted into his price.

     

    Ultima Handicap Chase – Meetingofthewaters @ 6/1 with William Hill & Trelawne @ 7/1 with Boylesports

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    A few listeners of the Only Fools Love Horses podcast will already know my stance on the Ultima, and that stance is one alongside Meetingofthewaters and Trelawne.

    The former isn’t a typical Ultima type as he comes into this race 17lbs higher than his last winning mark, but the manner of that Paddy Power Chase success was taking.

    Whether you believe the hype around him being a potential Gold Cup horse of the future or not, he travelled to the last in that Paddy Power Chase as if he had just joined in and the second, Panda Boy, has threatened to win a big race for a while. On that form, he holds strong claims.

    As for Trelawne, one of two runners for Kim Bailey, he hasn’t tried three miles over fences yet despite winning over the trip as a novice hurdler.

    His form when behind the likes of Ginny’s Destiny, Grey Dawning, Colonel Harry, and Crebilly is very good and he is one from one in handicap chases.

    Connections had a tough decision as to whether to bring him here or go elsewhere, but hopefully he can reward their faith with a big run in this competitive handicap.

     

    Champion Hurdle – Zarak The Brave W/O State Man @ 7/1

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    State Man looks the likely winner of this year’s Champion Hurdle after Constitution Hill’s scratching from the race, but I’m still happy to back Zarak The Brave without State Man at big odds.

    Based on his juvenile form of finishing second to Lossiemouth twice, both times giving weight away, he is right there and he has taken to open company well this season.

    A Galway Hurdle success off 145 while beating My Mate Mozzie, Icare Allen, Mighty Tom, and Bialystok is also good form and he showed his well-being at Naas last time out.

    He’s an improving hurdler and the ground should cause no issues.

     

    Mares’ Hurdle – Echoes In Rain W/O Lossiemouth @ 11/1

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    Similar to the previous comments, Lossiemouth will be a formidable opponent in the Mares’ Hurdle, but Echoes In Rain is a horse I think who has plenty of class.

    She has run in the last two renewals of the Mares’ Hurdle without placing, but she was given plenty to do on both occasions having travelled well into each respective renewal.

    Now an eight-year-old, she has learned to settle a little bit better in her races and she has run good races behind State Man three times this season.

    On what could be her swansong, she could have a class edge over some of these to hit the frame.

     

    Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – Batman Girac @ 15/2 with William Hill, Liari @ 8/1 with William Hill & Ose Partir @ 12/1 with BetVictor

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    Three horses in the Boodles. I know, it’s slightly criminal, but to slightly back this up, I have put all three of these horses up across various Only Fools Love Horses podcasts (insert trumpet).

    All three are worth backing each-way on the day, however, and they are ordered accordingly in first to last preference.

    The long-term project for this race is Batman Girac who impressed when fourth behind some nice horses – including Kala Conti, Kargese, and Nurburgring – on Boxing Day. Connections have saved him for the race and the vibes about him are bubbling nicely below the surface.

    The next horse that joined the list last month was Ose Partir as he ran with promise in the same race that Batman Girac finished fourth in, and he has plenty of experience on his side from his days on the Flat in France. A mark of 126 could interest plenty.

    Finally, the horse Paul Nicholls was keen to mention on his media day was Liari, highlighted as his best handicap chance.

    He is three from three for Manor Farm Stables and he brushed aside a nice field in Musselburgh. Top weight is a query, but he has class and the attributes to win a race like this.

     

    National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Novices’ Chase – Kilbeg King @ 11/1 with BetVictor

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    In the final race of the day, the each-way proposition about Kilbeg King for Anthony Honeyball and William Biddick interests me.

    Despite a few long-distance defeats on his record, it’s fair to say that the nine-year-old by Doyen is unexposed over three miles.

    His last three races over the trip include his facile success in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown, a good third behind Il Est Francais and Hermes Allen in the Kauto Star at Kempton, and his defeat at Ascot last time out.

    He wasn’t unlucky in the Reynoldstown at Ascot last month as his jumping didn’t stand the test of the contest, but a longer (and potentially slower) pace might help him get into a rhythm.

    I’m a fan of his experience and profile heading into the National Hunt Chase, and his price is big-enough to play each-way.

  • Cheltenham 2024 | 18/1 punt leads big-price outsiders

    Cheltenham 2024 | 18/1 punt leads big-price outsiders

    As the hours tick closer until the flag drops on the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, punters will be seeking the marquee wins and big returns across the week.

    With 28 races across four days of competition once more, finding winners is the ultimate pay-off, not least at a big whack.

    We’ve looked at three of the big NAPs for the week, but how about some real value?

    Casting our eye on the formbook, BestofBets have picked four runners, once for each day, who have e/w chances or better at 10s or bigger.

    Tuesday

    Ultima Handicap Chase (14:50) – Famous Bridge – 18/1 – BetUK

    Sandwiched between the Arkle and Champion Hurdle on opening day, the Ultima Handicap Chase over 3m1f looks a wide open contest.

    Despite recent disappointment, we quite like Famous Bridge to rise to the occasion.

    The jf in both Great Yorkshire and Grand National Trial over the winter months, the mount of Sean Quinlan no-showed at Doncaster and pulled-up, with the jockey unseated last time out.

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    His price for this contest has tumbled since.

    It is worth noting however, his most recent outing was on heavier ground, and his best runs have been on soft turf and between 3m and 3m1f.

    Forgetting his last two outings, Famous Bridge has won four of the last five and with the Ultima trip over 3m1f, he can make a better fist of things at a decent price.

     

    Wednesday

    Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (13:30) – Handstands – 12/1 – 888sport

    Moving on to Wednesday’s opener, formerly the Ballymore Novices’, could Handstands be somersaulting toward victory?

    Stepping up to the plate for red-hot trainer Ben Pauling, Handstands is four races unbeaten in his embryonic career.

    This 2m5f trip will be the 5yo’s very first, but with wins over 2m3.5f and 2m4.5f, the extra half furlong may prove to be in his wheel-house.

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    Another contender who likes juicy ground, his last win at Huntingdon last month saw an impressive victory over Nicky Henderson’s Jango Baie, showing consistent pacing and a strong finish.

    It looks as though either Ben Jones or Harry Cobden will jump aboard, so Handstands is indeed in good hands.

    But for Pauling, with his own stable based in familiar Gloucestershire terrain, punters should consider this horse’s credentials.

     

    Thursday

    Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (15:30) – Paisley Park – 16/1 – BoyleSports

    Thursday’s pick is made with more than a dose of romance, and just perhaps, the old boy Paisley Park has been saving his best for possibly last.

    A five-time entrant in this race, the veteran makes his seventh Cheltenham Festival appearance.

    His only win during that time was in year two but on his Stayers’ bow – then under the Sun Racing umbrella as 11/8f.

    So why the appeal in 2024?

    One of the longest race records of all active horses around, the last victory for Emma Lavelle’s 12yo last was a memorable Long Walk Hurdle at Kempton around Christmas 2022.

    Simply put – and with all love for this wonderful horse aside – his jumps season has been sensational, but so far without that merited win.

    With three gutsy runners-up finishes, it was his most recent outing on the new course, the Cleeve Hurdle, where he came closest.

    Nosed out by former National winner Noble Yeats, this year’s return to Cheltenham could very well be his last.

    To have any chance, he will of course have to go toe-to-toe with Grade Hurdle favourite, Teahupoo, and a former foe in 2021 and 2022 champ, Flooring Porter, to name just two.

    But, there is an awful lot of good feeling for this wonderful animal.

    Five years on from his last Stayers’ win on debut, can Paisley Park go out in glory at a big price?

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    Friday

    JCB Triumph Hurdle (13:30) – Salver – 14/1 – Betfred

    To finish, another stable very much in-form this season has been the Gary Moore clan, and in Salver lies an interesting flutter.

    A horse unbeaten in four since gelding, the 4yo has won in all conditions since debuting last November.

    Salver has three wins around the 2m mark, most impressively on tough ground at Chepstow over Christmas.

    That factor shouldn’t be shunned despite a steep step-up in class, and at 14s, punters could start the final day of the Festival on a high.

    Could Caoilin Quinn provide a silver Salver? Or perhaps even better?

     

    The 2024 Cheltenham Festival begins on Tuesday.

  • Cheltenham 2024 | The Cheltenham Triple | El Fabiolo

    Cheltenham 2024 | The Cheltenham Triple | El Fabiolo

    As Cheltenham 2024 inches ever closer, El Fabiolo looks to etch his name into the pantheon of National Hunt legends.

    Last year’s Arkle winner, El Fabiolo this time goes in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, locking horns with old nemesis Jonbon.

    Undefeated in seven races, Willie Mullins will be confident of retaining his grip on the race Energumene won back-to-back since 2022.

    Returning for his second Festival appearance, is 4/9 El Fabiolo bound for greatness?

     

    Cusp of legend

    Just how good is El Fabiolo? This year’s March trip to Gloucestershire may reveal the answer.

    A date to ponder; April 8 2022; just under a month shy of two years.

    That was the last time the French gelding tasted defeat, coming in the Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree.

    His conqueror on that day? A certain Jonbon.

    Since that early spring afternoon however, El Fabiolo has a clean slate.

    Avenging that very loss to Nicky Henderson’s runner 12 months ago as 11/10f, the 7yo now has four Grade 1 wins under the belt.

    Since his winning Cheltenham debut last year, ‘El Fabi’ has claimed the Castle Novice, Hilly Way and Dublin Chase crowns.

    In comparison, Jonbon’s record of late is far from glowing for a horse of such ilk.

    The gelding, a year senior, has fumbled over jumps this season and was unsure in the Tingle Creek.

    Pivotally, the 8yo’s loss in the Clarence House Chase to 22/1 Elixir Du Nutz felt damaging.

    Indeed, his 10/3 price with William Hill looks shaky.

     

    Small field

    With a fair amount of uncertainty over the going for the week, the current field of eight could be further whittled down come Wednesday.

    Turf ahead of Saturday inspection was good to soft, but is forecast to be soft for midweek.

    However, that could again change depending on varying weather predictions.

    So, realistically, are there any rivals to either El Fabiolo or Jonbon?

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    A former Arkle winner himself, Edwardstone has not enjoyed the best of years, but only a fool would write his chances off.

    Interestingly, Edwardstone has inflicted more losses on Jonbon than El Fabiolo has.

    However, Alan King’s 10yo will need a good deal more rain before Wednesday.

    Age may not be on his side, and to add to the mix, Edwardstone has not won a Grade 1 since the 2022 Tingle Creek.

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    Elixir Du Nutz we already touched on after beating Jonbon last time out, but what of Captain Guinness‘ hopes?

    A 14/1 gambit himself with Betfred, the 9yo of Henry De Bromhead’s biggest win to date was a Grade 2 at Navan at the start of the season.

    Captain Guinness was third to both El Fabiolo and Dinoblue in the Dublin Chase, but of just a small dash of intrigue, pushed Jonbon quite hard in the bet365 Celebration Chase to end last season.

    The ingredients are in place for another red-hot Champion Chase come Wednesday, but on paper, the field will have to go some to take down El Fabiolo.

     

    El Fabiolo looks for a second Cheltenham Festival crown in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, Wednesday, 15:30 GMT.

  • Cheltenham 2024 | The Cheltenham Triple | Lossiemouth

    Cheltenham 2024 | The Cheltenham Triple | Lossiemouth

    As the Cheltenham Festival arrives once again, Willie Mullins looks primed for more success in the shape of Lossiemouth.

    Making a return to the Festival from her JCB Triumph Hurdle win last year, Lossiemouth and Paul Townend have gone from strength to strength as a duo.

    With further Grade 1 success at Punchestown in the Ballymore 4-YO-Hurdle, the mare comes here off a wholly impressive Unibet Hurdle win at Cheltenham in January.

    On paper, a 1/2 heavy favourite this week, everything is lined up in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle.

    However, could Lossiemouth yet be swayed by glory in the Champion Hurdle?

     

    Opportunity knocks?

    The news of Constitutional Hill’s untimely withdrawal due to a lung infection came as a huge blow to both organisers and punters alike.

    But, with Nicky Henderson’s misfortune, could Willie Mullins land an opportune Cheltenham blow?

    Yes, another one.

    Set to swerve the main event of Day 1, Lossiemouth has now been given quite the dangling carrot.

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    It could also present Paul Townend with a quandary.

    With State Man now one of the shortest-price runners this year at 1/3, Lossiemouth is nearest in the betting at a reversal of 3/1 – a full six point difference.

    For now however, with only hours to go until the flag drops on the Festival, plans remain for the Mares’ race.

     

    Triumph Hurdle knock-on?

    If, as expected, Lossiemouth sticks to Plan A, there is an element of great intrigue on the menu.

    Both runner-up and third places to Lossiemouth in last year’s Triumph Hurdle are set for another crack at the queen.

    In the case of the latter, 25/1 Zenta put in a hugely game effort before being pipped for third by Gala Marceau.

    Meanwhile, Gala Marceau, despite being the bridesmaid last year, remains the only horse to beat Lossiemouth in seven career races.

    That was in a Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown last February.

    The 5yo mare arrives at Cheltenham with two third places in the Yorkshire Mares’ and Quevaga Mares’ Hurdle.

     

    A Diamond; a returning hope

    Meanwhile, Ashroe Diamond – who beat Gala Marceau last time out at Doncaster – is currently the closest market rival at 7/2 with BetUK.

    Beaten just once in four trips, a third contest around the 2m4f mark will be familiar ground.

    Yet, beaten in stronger company in the Grace Hurdle, this particular Diamond must up her game.

    Outside of the two market leaders, double-figure odds greet punters.

    What of the 9/4jf in this very contest last year, Marie’s Rock?

    Labouring home to finish seventh in Honeysuckle’s fitting send-off, Nicky Henderson looks to keep the crown against the odds.

    This time around 12/1 hopes may look fleeting, but the 2022 winner on the same ground, Marie’s Rock might have better fortune.

     

    Bigger punts

    Down the list of bigger prices, Hispanic Moon is not without e/w chances.

    Having also beaten Gala Marceau last time out in the aforementioned Quevaga, Henry De Bromhead’s contender has pedigree.

    Hispanic Moon is half-brother to none other than El Fabiolo, sire of former flat specialist, Spanish Moon.

    A belting 25/1 shot with Unibet, the 7yo’s effort last time out was gutsy.

    In conditions that will likely be far kinder, Hispanic Moon will have her braver backers.

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    Finally, You Wear It Well looks to double-up from Cheltenham last year and seal a rare feat.

    Victorious in the Jack De Bromhead Mares’ Novices over Magical Zoe – also running here – Jamie Snowden’s girl’s last win took down the very able Luccia on season debut.

    Could lightning strike twice in Gloucestershire? A 33/1 price with BetVictor says it can.

     

    Lossiemouth is set to ride in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle on Tuesday 13 March at 16:10 GMT.

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Championship Races

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Championship Races

    With no Constitution Hill, can State Man write his name on the trophy? Can Galopin Des Champs make it back-to-back in one of the most competitive Gold Cups? Just who will win the headline races of the Festival.

     

    Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy – 2m 87yds – Grade One

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    It’s such a shame that Constitution Hill can’t make it. But at least we’ve another star hurdler on our hands from the other side of the Irish Sea.

    State Man is the best hurdler in Ireland and has been for the last two years but has run into Constitution Hill over in Cheltenham to deny him a deserved Champion Hurdle. And with no other hurdler to match the quality of him, it seems another open and shut case.

    The without State Man market will be the one to watch throughout the next few days. It’s a shame Lossiemouth will not oppose State Man, as she wouldn’t be without a chance. But she will go to the Mares’ Hurdle.

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    Irish Point and Iberico Lord have been supplemented for the race. Irish Point has come from a potential tilt at the Stayers’ Hurdle to drop a full mile back. It looks like a wasted opportunity over this level, and I cannot understand why Robcour will not run him and Teahupoo together in the main race on Thursday.

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    Iberico Lord is an out and out two-miler but has been acting it in handicap company. He has won over C&D this season in the Greatwood and won the Betfair Hurdle really well. Considering he may be a Constitution Hill replacement; he might not be out of his depth here.

    Verdict:

    State Man. Class Act. Wins It. No doubt. 2/5 (General).

    Each-way (W/O) picks: Pied Piper has been overlooked I believe. He was not up to scratch in the Morgiana, but around Cheltenham his record reads 1312. Two wins round the course, plus narrowly beaten means he must have a liking for the course and can run a race at a decent price. 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK).

    Reverse Forecast: State Man, Pied Piper

     

    Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase – 1m 7F 199yds – Grade One

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    Once again, this could be another open and shut race. Or is everyone doubting one horse a little too much?

    El Fabiolo is unbeaten over fences, handles Cheltenham well and had the better of Jonbon last year. So why should he not win. Some have said he is not the best jumper. But Jonbon isn’t either, given his run in the Clarence House. Even if El Fabiolo makes a mistake, he’s shown the great ability to recover and move on. That’s his best quality.

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    Do you write of Jonbon for that one mistake? He rallied extremely well, but the mistake at the fourth last knocked the wind out of his sails and just couldn’t respond to James Bowen’s urges up the hill. But he only lost by a neck, which shows his tenacity. It’s 1-1 in the series between these two and Jonbon still has plenty of talent to take advantage of an off day El Fabiolo.

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    Edwardstone was going to be aimed at the Ryanair. But a poor showing in the Silviniaco Conti and stepped down in the Game Spirit, he showed a new lease of life being ridden from the front. Tom Cannon will try to use that to his advantage, but the former two horses will be expecting it.

    Verdict:

    Even on an off day, El Fabiolo seems to be the best of the bunch. He hacked up in last year’s Arkle and showed off the gulf between him and Jonbon over fences. It makes sense he will be a massive banker for Wednesday. 4/9 (BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Captain Guinness could run to a place if Jonbon doesn’t show his true credentials. His only victory came at the start of the season beating Riviere D’Etel, who backed up the form next time out. He ran a good race in behind El Fabiolo and Dinoblue, two talented chasers, in the Dublin Chase. Double figures are a little too big for a horse who finished second last year. 16/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Ryanair Chase – 2m 4F 127yds – Grade One

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    This race hangs by a thread with the ground. If it’s good-to-soft by Thursday, expect one of the races of the week. If not, then the race could fall apart.

    Banbridge would’ve been my nap of the week if it wasn’t for a wet Wednesday last year. He offers so much class that he’s won two races since. One at Aintree last season and avoided the heavy ground and won a stormer in the Silvinicaco Conti. No one do a rain dance!

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    Envoi Allen won this race last year and in really good style. He didn’t follow up on his next two runs, but should’ve, would’ve, could’ve won the Champion Chase at Down Royal if it wasn’t for Gerri Colombe. Don’t be fooled by the double digits as his age will prove nothing when he turns up and runs a stormer.

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    Stage Star looks made to win this race. He wasn’t on his day on New Year’s Day but draw a line through that run and look back at him winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup by four lengths off next-to-top weight. When a horse loves Cheltenham this much, you can’t’ not look against him.

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    Capodanno really sprung a surprise in the Cotswold Chase. But analyse the race a little more and you will see that the race was tailor-made for him. He came up against a novice, a horse who was below par, a horse who didn’t like Cheltenham and a handicapped in Grade One company for the first time. It makes sense to drop him here as he wouldn’t want to clash with the Gold Cup entries, but his last win proves this horse has an engine.

    Verdict:

    IF THE GROUND READS GOOD-TO-SOFT, Banbridge will win and win well. He’s a horse I’ve loved ever since the Martin Pipe and has a clear love for Cheltenham. Given Joseph O’Brien’s reduction on jumpers, he won’t come to the Festival to show up. 11/4 (General).

    Each-way pick: I visited Jamie Snowden’s yard on Thursday, and he was supplementing Ga Law for the race. He was very bullish about his chances. He has a great love for Cheltenham and so does the horse, especially when he won the Paddy Power Podcast Chase on Trial’s Day and seems confident he can deliver in a field full of quality. Sold! 16/1 (General).

     

    Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle – 2m 7F 203yds – Grade One

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    Always competitive and this year’s renewal is no different. Will the youngster’s take the crown, or will the old boys have one final say on the proceedings?

    Teahupoo is the main hope for the Irish. He ran a great race last season and was first past the post into second but was demoted after an enquiry. He showed his quality in the Hatton’s Grace and has been kept fresh for this race, avoiding all staying contests. But there’s been no evidence that there is a better Irish competitor.

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    Crambo ran a cracker of a race in the Long Walk Hurdle, giving Jonathan Burke a big Grade One win. He’s been booked again to ride Fergal O’Brien’s stable star and there’s nothing to say he won’t go near again.

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    Noble Yeats has found a new lease of life when just about outstaying Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle. We know this horse has a big engine, as he’s a former Grand National winner. He may have another go at the race, and race over hurdles until then. Emmet Mullins will have had this race in mind to protect his chase mark for the National.

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    Flooring Porter may have been a National Hunt Chase contender at the start of the season, but his chasing days look a world away. Gavin Cromwell is tempted to come back to this race, which isn’t stupid, given he’s won the race twice. He’s a horse that might have been a little poor over fences but is menace over hurdles.

    Verdict:

    Teahupoo is the best hurdler in this race. Despite only running once this season, there hasn’t been another horse that has impressed me this season in the division, which speaks volumes. It will no doubt be competitive, but he ran a great race last season and can go well again. 9/4 (BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Flooring Porter should not be the price he is when he is coming back to this race. Connections were hesitant about going over fences this season, and it only worked once at the track he likes. A two-time winner of this race, who still has plenty to give is being criminally underestimated. 12/1 (General).

    Paisley Park has been beaten by the following distances this season: head, shoulder, head. Yes, he wasn’t at his best last year, but this year he has shown his best qualities. The fact he has lost by these distances shows you just need a bit of luck in racing. For a place, he’s good value. 16/1 (General).

     

    Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup – 3m 2F 70yds – Grade One

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    The biggest race of the season. All the iconic names have won this race and have been immortalised ever since. This year looks to be the most competitive Gold Cups we have had for a while.

    Galopin Des Champs was finally found out by Fastorslow in the Punchestown Gold Cup and the John Durkan. But he really showed those who doubted him in the Irish Gold Cup, when back to his brilliant best. He just seems to be hitting the right notes at the right time.

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    Fastorslow did get two over the Gold Cup winner, as mentioned before. What people may fail to remember is he was beaten by a neck by Corach Rambler in the Ultima. Credit’s where it’s due to Martin Brassil and deserves a winner on the big stage.

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    It’s safe to say, Shishkin has been a handful this season. Didn’t start at Ascot, tripped inexplicably at Kempton, before showing what he’s made of at Newbury in the Denman. A previous Supreme winner, he finished second in last year’s Ryanair. Is three-and-a-quarter miles a bridge too far?

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    Gerri Colombe was touted to win the Gold Cup by winning the Down Royal Champion Chase in November. But was shown to be out of his depth when beaten 23 lengths by Galopin Des Champs. He was oh so close to winning the Brown Advisory last year but was beaten by The Real Whacker. This year may not be his time.

    Verdict:

    Galopin Des Champs has an excellent record at the Festival. Currently unbeaten, excluding the fall at the final fence in the Turner’s, he’s always shown his best at the Festival. He just has the beating of this field this season, next year could be a different story. Even at a short price, he’s worth it. 5/4 (General).

    Each-way picks: There’s plenty to pick from. Whilst Bravemansgame hasn’t had the best of seasons, he’s still managed to hang onto a place. Second at Wetherby, second at Haydock and second at Kempton isn’t Gold Cup winning form. But when you consider he was second in last year’s renewal, and matched Galopin Des Champs at the final fence, he’s overpriced. 16/1 (BetUK).

    Many forget just how good a target trainer Mouse Morris is. Gentlemansgame beat Bravemansgame at Wetherby, which made up for finishing second to Easy Game in October. This has been the clear plan and has come up against Galopin Des Champs before. He finished second that day, but it could happen again. 16/1 (General).

  • Imperial Cup Day | Jonjo Has the Thing at Sandown

    Imperial Cup Day | Jonjo Has the Thing at Sandown

    It’s the final weekend before the Cheltenham Festival which means the Imperial Cup headlines action on our screens today.

    Alongside the £100,000 feature, there is the valuable EBF Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final and other interesting contests to try and find an angle into.

    After last week’s success with the column, let’s begin.

     

    1:50 Sandown – Hasthing @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    As much as I try to find ways around favourites in general, there’s a good chance that a mark of 119 makes Hasthing very well-handicapped.

    For starters, he gave Pic Roc six pounds at Catterick two starts ago and beat him snugly at the line.

    Both are clashing against each other on handicap debut today, though it’s Jamie Snowden’s novice that is carrying four pounds extra.

    Hasthing also has Graded form in the book thanks to his third in the Grade 2 Aintree Bumper at the Grand National meeting.

    The winner, Florida Dreams, is rated 129, the second, Blizzard Of Oz, has won twice since, and even the fifth, Masaccio, is rated 129.

    If he can put his last run behind him then Jonjo O’Neill Jnr has a serious chance of swooping up the £45,016 winning pot for connections.

     

    2:25 Sandown – Lively Citizen @ 28/1 with William Hill – 0.5 EW

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    Plenty could go well in the Imperial Cup at Sandown, that’s for sure, but my each-way play into the contest is Lively Citizen who finished second in the 2022 renewal.

    He raced off 121 that day and ran into Surprise Package who went on to finish second in State Man’s County Hurdle.

    This year, DJ Jeffries’ stable star has a mark of 113 with Harry Atkins in the saddle to claim a valuable seven pounds.

    Although he has been inconsistent since that Imperial Cup second, his last two runs have provided plenty of promise and he gets his preferred soft ground today.

    Lively Citizen is a horse I love, so hopefully he can outrun his odds in a hot handicap.

     

    4:10 Sandown – Castle Robin @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Charlie Longsdon has always rated Castle Robin in high regard and today looks like a good chance to return to the winners’ enclosure.

    Rated 132, two pounds below his last winning mark, the nine-year-old is one-from-one at Sandown.

    The form of his fourth in the 2022 Edinburgh Gin Chase looks good as Sounds Russian went on to run well in the 2023 Cotswold Chase and Eva’s Oskar won at Cheltenham two starts later.

    Furthermore, his first start of the season at Doncaster was promising as the winner, Forward Plan, has since won the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase and the third, Twoshotsoftequila, has won twice since.

    With a run under his belt last month to blow the cobwebs away, he should go well here.

     

    4:40 Sandown – Es Perfecto @ 7/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Finally, in the last at Sandown, I’m throwing another lifeline to Es Perfecto who is slowly becoming a cliff horse of mine.

    Having backed him at Kempton and Cheltenham on his last two starts, he ran with credit on both occasions behind some nice horses including Blow You Wad, a subsequent Grade 2 winner, and Ginny’s Destiny, the current Turners favourite.

    Looking through the form book, the nine-year-old has run some nice races on better ground and is a little bit untested on softer conditions.

    Although the official going at Sandown is good to soft, the track tends to ride a little bit slower, but his pedigree (a Shirocco half-brother to No Ordinary Joe) should offer hope to him going well in most ground.

    Off 123, I think he is better than this mark and hopefully, he can be too good for these.

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Cross-Country & Hunters

    Cheltenham 2024 | Festival Focus 2024: Cross-Country & Hunters

    Can a former Gold Cup winner go Cross-Country?  Is there an overpriced horse going hunting on Friday? We take a deep dive into the more unique races of the Festival.

     

    Glenfarclas Cross-Country Chase – 3m 6F 37yds – Class 2

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    Gordon Elliott has, technically, won this race six times. And with only three horses; Cause Of Causes, Tiger Roll and Delta Work.

    But the favourite is a newcomer to cross country chasing, Minella Indo. The 2021 winner of the Gold Cup just wasn’t himself in the past two renewals of the Blue Riband race. He got a sighting of the cheese wedges when coming fourth in the Crystal Cup. Now on level weights, he could roll back the years.

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    Two-time winner Delta Work hasn’t had the greatest of seasons. He was way behind in the Cross-Country Handicap Chase in November and has failed to place all season. If he managed a better performance under top weight in November, he may have been favourite.

    Galvin was second in last year’s renewal and was ahead of Delta Work in Elliott’s usual prep race for the Cross-Country, the Boyne Hurdle. He improved in the Crystal Cup, but level weights could come to his rescue and could hit the frame again.

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    Coko Beach could hold a very live chance. He’s won two races this season, including the Troytown in November. He finished second in the Becher and first over the Cross-Country track at Punchestown, so he’s well-qualified. Apart from the lack of a Cheltenham win.

    Verdict:

    A former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner could have one last hurrah and upset the Elliott dominance. Minella Indo is a worthy favourite after showing promising signs in December. 15/8 (William Hill, 888Sport, BetUK).

    Each-way: Coko Beach has been placed at the Festival, way back in 2019. With an excellent season behind him and a win over the Cross-Country track at Punchestown he could continue the Gigginstown trend in the race. 9/2 (General).

    Reverse Forecast: Minella Indo, Coko Beach

     

    St. James’ Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase – 3m 2F 70yds – Class 2

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    The Gold Cup for amateurs is always an exciting race. Mostly because very few punters have an idea of these horses. But it can often spring a surprise, like 66/1 shot Premier Magic last year.

    It’s On The Line has  never won a race by more than a length this season. However, Emmet Mullins is a master trainer and may have one of the best around.

    Ferns Lock missed last season’s renewal, but his wins this season should give him a fighting chance in this year’s renewal. David Christie is one of the best Hunter/Point-to-Point chase trainers and is due a Festival winner.

    Billaway is always interesting. He ran down Winged Leader, but just couldn’t replicate it last season, falling. He could have beaten It’s On The Line last time out at Naas, but was beaten by a head. Willie Mullins could get into double-figure winners with this race with a horse who’s tenacious and dependable.

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    Last year’s winner, Premier Magic is overpriced. Many feel he can follow up and is still unbeaten since 2021 and is a legend in the amateur game. He was dominant in last year’s race and can do it once again. Never underestimate a former winner.

    Verdict:

    Whilst he isn’t 66/1, Premier Magic is far better value than horse that hasn’t won by more than a length all season. 7/1 (William Hill, 888Sport, BetUK).

    Each-way pick: Two winners have come at a price of 66/1. And it’s worth a shot at one at the price. Not many mares have won this race, but one has won at Cheltenham. Miss Seagreen won on the Hunter Chase evening last year but was only seen at Ludlow on reappearance. Could she have been aimed at this race? 66/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, BetUK).