Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Four To Follow: Money Makes Gold

    Four To Follow: Money Makes Gold

    The Dante Festival signals the return of the season at York Racecourse. Oaks and Derby trials take place here each week and the racing public pay close attention as often they produce those who find Epsom gold. We kick off the week with two cracking handicaps, a fantastic group sprint race and the Musidora for a midweek Four to Follow.

     

    Champ Of The Knavesmire

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    2:15 – Jorvik Handicap – Marhaba The Champ @ 4/1 (General)

    Northern trainers all do well at York. The Dante and Ebor Festivals are always targeted by those big yards that train in Yorkshire.

    Kevin Ryan is one such individual. Last year Marhaba The Champ won twice on the Knavesmire, during the Dante and Ebor meetings. This horse has been well-targeted to run at those two meetings, and don’t be surprised if he is again this season. Despite some rain, the ground is holding up and can dry out quickly at York, which can bring up win number three for Marhaba.

    Chillingham comes into this race with a great looking handicap mark. He’s been dropped a pound for placing within a length last time out at Ripon, which seems really odd. Despite some near misses on soft ground recently, he has won on firmer once before. The ground should suit and he should be able to make a rather lenient, yet light, drop in the handicap work. 8/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Saratoga Gold hasn’t had the best of times running since winning at Kempton last year. He also unseated his rider during the Queen Mother Cup at York last year as well. However, he has won on firmer ground over the distance and further. Plus a mark of 88 looks good, considering he’s drawn on the rail. Shortest route to take at 25/1 (General).

     

    Going For Gold

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    2:45 – Churchill Tyres Handicap – Aberama Gold @ 11/1 (William Hill)

    Sprint handicaps at York cannot be beat. So many familiar names turn up and you just sit back and enjoy. Former Steward’s Cup winner Aberama Gold after three wins in big handicaps last season. He is starting to get back into his groove after fishing third at the Craven meeting and the handicapper has dropped him a pound after his last run at the Guineas meeting. This puts him on his last winning mark, and the ground should be to his liking. He’s also drawn near the pace too which makes him a great bet.

    Great Ambassador also looks to be well handicapped for this race. Last season he was mostly see in Group races, but he’s back down to a mark of 97. He won a handicap at Newmarket off that figure on firm ground as well. Plenty of speed should suit him drawn in the middle at 10, drawn next to Hispanic, so could we see him back to winning ways for the first time since 2021? A nice each-way bet at 14/1 (General).

    Monsieur Kodi also looks interesting for Richard Fahey. He found no luck in running at Ripon last time out and the handicapper has dropped him. He was narrowly beaten off a mark of 85 so things might go well for him a pound lower in the weights. He’s stepped back up to a more comfortable six furlongs and won’t mind what ground he gets. Great each-way price at 18/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    A-Zure Bet

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    3:15 –1895 Duke Of York Stakes (Group Two) – Azure Blue @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    This is one of the best Group races already this season. Plenty of action and plenty who hold chances. But I’m sticking with the favourite. With Art Power carrying a penalty, and Azure Blue with an allowance, the latter is the top rated in the field. Having won this race last season and acting well at the start of the season. She goes well fresh, so her price makes her look more attractive.

    Washington Heights shockingly won the Abernant. Trainer Kevin Ryan says that he won’t want too much rain, and with firm still in the going, he has every chance to shock them again. Washington Heights has always raced well at York, only beaten twice both by a head. With a horse that won last time out, acts on the ground and a like for the course, 10/1 (General) is a great price.

    Let’s not forget there are a couple of Group One winners in this field. One of them being Khaadem. He begins his defence of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes after winning at 80/1. He enjoys six furlongs better than five, and firm ground. With all of that in mind, a price of 18/1 (BetVictor) doesn’t take into account his Group One pedigree.

     

    What My Friends Call Me…

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    3:45 – Musidora Stakes (Group Three) – Friendly Soul @ Evs (William Hill, BetVictor)

    John & Thady Gosden sent last year’s Musidora/Oaks winner Soul Sister off at 18/1. This time they have been found out with an exceptional horse. Friendly Soul routed the field in the Pretty Polly, beating the well-fancied Kalpana in the process and looked like she might go further. Her breeding suggests that this might be her limit, but don’t knock it until you try. She looks tailor-made for the Musidora.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Pearle Of A Day

    Four To Follow: Pearle Of A Day

    Plenty going on today, with Lingfield Derby Trials and some great handicaps up and down the country. The first big seven furlong handicap at Ascot takes place, plus the unique mixed card at Haydock too. It’s a four to follow up and down the country.

     

    Lingfield

    Smile On My Face

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    2:25 – William Hill Oaks Trial (Listed) – Danielle @ 6/5 (William Hill)

    It’s not often a star is born on the flat at Wetherby, but it looks like it with Danielle. A big 12 length win to break a maiden is nothing short of impressive. And being by Derby winner Cracksman, and with black type running through the family, this Lingfield Oaks Trial looks like it could give us a massive clue for Epsom’s big race on Friday.

     

    The Prairie Horse

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    3:00 – William Hill Derby Trial (Listed) – Illinois @ 5/2 (General)

    This looks a more competitive trial for the fourth Classic of the season. The top two in the market are by Derby winners, but Illinois has the black type to put him over the edge. The better ground might suit him a little better after hitting the frame in a Group One in France. Only Aidan O’Brien has produced a Derby winner from this race in the last 10 years, but Illinois doesn’t look like Derby material on paper. But he looks a good winner of this contest.

     

    Ascot

    A Pearle Of A Bet

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    2:40 – Victoria Cup (Premier Handicap) – Pearle D’Or @ 8/1 (Boylesports)

    David O’Meara might not have the best record in the race, but Pearle D’Or looks brilliantly suited. He had two goes at C&D last year and was beaten by a neck and won by three-quarters of a length. He’s up nine pounds in four runs, which is the sign of a nicely improving horse. But then looking at the weights, Pearle D’or is near the bottom. Middle might not be the best draw, but a good break and track to the far side will give Pearle D’or the best option of latching onto the pace.

    Ramazan hasn’t been outside the top two in four runs. And whilst 105 might be a bit too high, he has a five pound claimer on board. This brings him down to a similar mark when he was narrowly beaten in the Ayr Gold Cup. Richard Fahey’s stable is always one that doesn’t go off the boil and Northern raiders are always ones to watch at Ascot meetings. Nice each-way value 12/1 (General).

    Another O’Meara horse that might give a good showing is Rhoscolyn. He’s up a pound from last year’s run, which isn’t in his favour. But he’ll appreciate the cut in the ground and can improve from a close fourth last time out. Small stakes at 25/1 (Boylesports).

     

    Haydock

    Singing Along

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    3:15 – Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – Lark In The Mornin @ 9/4 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred)

    Despite being a little over 2/1, Lark In The Mornin possibly has the best value in the race. After winning the Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, he’s been risen only eight pounds but is low in the weights for this race. And despite winning on heavy ground, he appreciates better ground, having been pulled twice before Cheltenham. Watch his price as he could go odds-on.

    Other nice prices, Mr Freedom will prefer the good ground and has represented some good form throughout the season. He was a long way behind Our Champ in the Sussex Champion Hurdle but finished well ahead of the third. For that, he’s been dropped a pound. Dropping in the weights for finishing second is something I can really get behind and expect a good performance at 16/1 (Betfred).

    Last year’s winner Ngolo might not be to the level Lark In The Mornin is. But he’s back to the same winning mark he was in 2022. It should be similar ground as well, but he has only come back from a break of 475 days. He’s also a similar price to his win in 2022 so it could be a case of déjà vu. 25/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Chester May Festival Day 3 | Friendly draw in Chester Cup

    Chester May Festival Day 3 | Friendly draw in Chester Cup

    Day two at the Chester May Festival was a crossbar-hitting day as Witness Stand recovered EW money when second to Never So Brave but Bracken’s Laugh couldn’t reel in Capulet in the Dee Stakes.

    Still, the EW return from Witness Stands’ 18/1 price covered the outlay from the rest of the day by 0.5pts, so let’s roll into the final day of the Chester May Festival.

     

    1:30 Chester – Boardman @ 8/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the opening contest, Boardman is trying to win this race for the first time having finished fifth in the last two renewals.

    Although stall 10 does hinder his chances slightly, the last two renewals occurred on soft and good-to-soft ground, so today’s better ground is a benefit to the eight-year-old by Kingman.

    Down to a mark of 94, he is three pounds below his last winning mark (which came over course and distance) and one pound below his last winning before then (which also came over course and distance).

    Furthermore, this is the time of year to catch him (seven from nine in the month of May) and he’s had a preparation run at Haydock on ground too soft for him to put in a solid effort.

    Jockey Phil Dennis guided him to his last success and he returns to the saddle, so he has a few things in his favour to put in a solid showing here.

     

    3:05 Chester – Mashhoor @ 10/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Although Hamish is an absentee from the Group 2 Huxley Stakes, the contest is a wide-open betting heat and Mashhoor stands out to me at 10/1.

    Johnny Murtagh’s six-year-old by Kingman hasn’t had the easiest career to date as he was late onto the scene as a two-year-old and has only raced 15 times for his age, but he seems as good as ever.

    He won three races on the bounce last season, though the most notable win came in the Group 3 International Stakes at the Curragh where he beat Al Riffa by nearly five lengths while giving five pounds away.

    Although that was Al Riffa’s first start of the season, the runner-up ran into Ace Impact – the subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner – in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano and then finished a close fourth on his seasonal reappearance in the Group 1 Prix Ganay last month.

    After that, Mashhoor went to the Group 2 York Stakes and ran well to finish fifth of five, though only four lengths covered the field and both Alflaila and Royal Champion franked the form in Group/Grade 1 races subsequently.

    Although he finished sixth in the Group 3 Paddy Power Stakes on his last start of the season, it was his first try at 1m4f and he did the donkey work from the front, so it’s easy to forgive him for that.

    With a run under his belt, Murtagh has probably brought him over to Chester for a reason and he holds an entry for the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup.

    If he navigates stall eight well (he’s a natural front-runner, so he could well do this easily), he can outrun his odds.

     

    3:40 Chester – Too Friendly @ 12/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Spirit Mixer @ 20/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 1pt EW both

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    In the Chester Cup, two horses have caught my attention, the first of which is Too Friendly for James Owen.

    Although the majority of his last runs have occurred over obstacles, that doesn’t hinder his chances as Metier won this race last year and he had a similar profile.

    As for Too Friendly, he gets in here off a Flat mark of 89 having won snugly at Kempton two starts ago, though his form over jumps shows he is clearly a good horse.

    As a juvenile, he was fifth in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle behind Brazil and Gaelic Warrior and this season he finished just under three lengths behind Rubaud in a Listed hurdle over two miles.

    Rubaud ran into both Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth after that, so the form looks strong.

    His profile is an interesting one, though so is the profile of Spirit Mixer for the in-form Andrew Balding stable.

    By Frankel out of a Dubawi mare, he finished second to Trueshan in the Northumberland Plate in 2022 off a mark of 97, so his rating of 94 (and Callum Hutchinson’s three-pound claim) make him well-handicapped here.

    He’s had a few issues during his career, but a return to better ground will help and one can imagine this had been a plan.

     

    4:50 Chester – Chillhi @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    In the penultimate race, Chillhi has plenty in his favour at a course he has previous form at.

    The four-year-old had a decent juvenile season in 2022 as he won snugly twice and then ran in the hot £100,000 British EBF 2YO Series Final in October 2022.

    That race produced Streets Of Gold (rated 105), Legend Of Xanadu (rated 98), and Shouldvebeenaring (rated 112).

    As for his three-year-old season, his luck ran out, but most of his runs occurred in Class 3 and Class 2 contests, so today’s Class 4 assignment will be a welcome drop in grade.

    The one time he did contest a Class 4 came over the same course and distance as today from stall six; he made up plenty of ground that day, so the task of stall one is welcomed.

    Finally, his current rating of 78 is eight pounds lower than that day and William Pyle takes off three pounds, making him well-handicapped.

  • Four To Follow: Chester Cup Day

    Four To Follow: Chester Cup Day

    A tricky day, with selections hitting the bar. But Point Lonsdale managed to salvage something from the day. Today, it’s Chester’s big day with the Chester Cup taking centre stage. Some names may be familiar from the jumps who make their way over for one of the longest races of the flat season. Plus a good undercard to make a Friday Four To Follow.

     

    Dreaming Of Wins

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    1:30 – CAA Stellar Earl Of Grosvenor Handicap – Liamarty Dreams @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Liamarty Dreams is looking to make it a hat-trick in this race. He won at Doncaster at the Lincoln meeting, then at Musselburgh after been raised four pounds. It’s the same amount today and looks to be on the big improve this season. Stall two over the seven-and-a-half furlongs makes him all the more appealing for a yard in decent form.

    Revich won this race last year and has a great record on the Roodee. Four wins at the track makes him one of the specialists in the field. He’s back to a mark of 95, a winning mark up at Ayr last season. Plus, a middle draw isn’t the worst thing in the world and can bounce back to form after two lacklustre season openers. 10/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    Island Native is a debutant at Chester, but he should be able to handle the tight turns with wins on the all-weather, including Lingfield. He showed a good performance on turf at Brighton last time out. But he’s climbing up three classes for this race, which is a nagging doubt. But the king of Chester, Franny Norton, will be able to guide him round his favourite track. Worth something at 12/1 (General).

     

    May Flowers

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    2:35 – Free Bet Friday Handicap – Botanical @ 7/2 (William Hill)

    Already the form for Botanical has been given an almighty boost. Mr Porfessor went and won the Lincoln this year, but was beat by Botanical by six lengths on his last start of the season. Given that Silvestre De Sousa and Roger Varian are a red hot classic winning combination, it would make sense to go with what seems to be the second Al Maktoum runner in the race.

     

    It’s Rar Rar

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    3:05 – Huxley Stakes (Group Two) – Israr @ 11/4 (General)

    You can’t argue when you have good ground and the highest rated horse in a race. Israr ticks all the boxes, and comes off the back of a close third at Sandown last time out. He beat former Derby winner Adayar last year at this level at the Newmarket July Festival and has had a decent winter over in the Middle East as well. At the price, it makes sense.

     

    A Ztuck Cup

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    3:40 – Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) – Zoffee @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    After one appearance in the Chester Cup, Zoffee seemed to be at home with the Roodee. He didn’t act for the rest of the season and comes back here three pounds lower than last season. At a track he seems to like and on a lower mark, plus a tendency to act at this time out the year, Zoffee is my main pick for the Chester Cup.

    Another course specialist who should handle the Cup well is Solent Gateway. He’s raced a few times and only won once, but experience counts round here. He last raced in the Cup off a mark of 90 and is two pounds higher today. Saffie Osborne is in the saddle which is always a big plus, given that she’s operating at a 22% strike rate. An added bonus of being a pound well in the handicap makes 14/1 (General) quite attractive.

    Too Friendly has a shot at a big price. Trainer James Owen says that the track should suit him and acts more in the Summer than he does in the Winter over jumps. He won on the all-weather in March and is only up four pounds for the run, which sees him at one of the lower weights in the field. Small stakes at 20/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: God’s Got A Point – Chester May Festival

    Four To Follow: God’s Got A Point – Chester May Festival

    Yesterday, there wasn’t much point to get stuck into, in terms of both quality and value, but we saw some terrific finishes. Today is much more competitive with some nice-looking handicaps, as well as a tricky Ormonde Stakes as the feature.

     

    Fire In The Belly

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    1:30 – CAA Stellar Handicap – Roman Dragon @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    A quick race to get us started with, and, as ever, draw is key. But course specialists are also a key factor, and Roman Dragon knows the Roodee better than any horse in the field. He’s raced round the round track 15 times, winning five times. He’s won from multiple positions, including outside stalls, but he’s in stall one today. Also, recent form in Bahrain has seen his mark gone up four pounds, but he’s an improver for the local Hugo Palmer yard.

    In the last ten years, this race has been won out of only three stalls; 1, 3, 4. Clearpoint fills stall number four, and looks nicely handicapped. He was dropped a pound for finishing fourth at Epsom last time out, which puts him on the same mark for a close third at Lingfield. The three pounds that William Craver takes off also brings him down to a recent winning mark. Nice each-way value at 8/1 (Betfred).

    Michaela’s Boy looks to put right so many wrongs. He hasn’t won since December 2022, and came close at the Curragh last Summer. He’s been dropped a massive four pounds from his last start at Musselburgh and his new weight makes him look appealing in the market. 12/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Rash To Judgement

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    2:05 – British Stallion Studs Maiden Stakes – Rashabar @ 3/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    This horse’s form is gold dust. Rashbar finished third at Newbury, but ahead of him the second won next time out at Bath. He also beat a winner at Salisbury and a neck second at Newmarket. With three winners in the field, it should only be a matter of time before he goes odds-on. Despite drawn wide, this is about the talent of the two-year-olds, so draw isn’t as important as it is in handicaps.

     

    When God Closes a Door…

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    3:05 – Dee Stakes (Listed) – God’s Window @ 9/4 (William Hill, Unibet)

    The Dee Stakes is the lesser-known Derby trial. It hasn’t produced a Derby winner recently, but nearly did with Cliffs Of Moher in 2017. It did produce multiple Grade One winning hurdler Not So Sleepy, so it’s got some depth.

    God’s Window is the highest rated horse out of the lot and was an eight-and-a-half length winner at Nottingham on reappearance. Jayarebe has his form boosted by both Whip Cracker and Caviar Heights. But God’s Window has entries in three big Group One’s, including the Derby and the Eclipse. This is the litmus test for his season.

     

    Lonsdale Has A Point

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    3:40 – Ormonde Stakes (Group Three) – Point Lonsdale @ 9/4 (Boylesports)

    Point Lonsdale is often looked over as a forgotten horse, but he can act when he is brought to his level. He didn’t win at all over the Winter, which blots his copybook. But a big tick in his book is that he won the Huxley Stakes last year, so he knows the course. Combined with the fact he is the highest-rated horse in the field, and Arrest was deeply disappointing on reappearance, the door might just be shown for Point Lonsdale.

  • Chester May Festival Day 2 | Dreaming of success

    Chester May Festival Day 2 | Dreaming of success

    Action on the Roodee kicked off yesterday, though day 1 at the Chester May Festival ended with sadness after the awful incident involving Hidden Law after the line in the Chester Vase.

    For many, as the Dubawi three-year-old kicked clear from Aidan O’Brien’s Agenda, we looked at his performance and gave him plenty of credit for the effort.

    After all, he was very good at Newbury, it was just whether he could step up to a better grade and transform his form.

    Well, he did, so it was incredibly sad what happened to him moments after the line, and all we can do is give our best wishes to those closely connected to the horse.

    Just a quick line on yesterday’s results from the column; Al Shabab Storm returned place money at 7/1 (though he was unlucky not to win) and Cadogan Place finished fifth of sixth in the Chester Vase.

     

    2:35 Chester – Witness Stand @ 18/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    Kicking off the action in the third race of the day, Witness Stand can outrun his odds back at a course he knows well.

    The three-year-old by Expert Eye won a maiden on debut at the course from stall six of seven before he went straight into Group 2 company for the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

    He did the donkey work that day, but still ran with credit to finish sixth in a race won by Haatem (subsequently 3rd in the 2000 Guineas). Iberian, Mountain Bear, and Son also franked the form subsequently.

    Having finished third on heavy ground behind Orne at Newmarket to finish the season, he blew off the cobwebs at Kempton when fifth to Notable Speech (subsequent 2000 Guineas winner) at the start of last month, something that will put him spot on for this.

    Going from Group and top-class company to a Class 2 0-105 will benefit Witness Stand, so he has a good chance to put in a display here.

     

    3:05 Chester – Bracken’s Laugh @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Something about the performance of Bracken’s Laugh at Chelmsford in April caught my eye, and I’m hoping he continues that progress here at Chester.

    The three-year-old by Zoffany has a strong pedigree behind him as he is from the family of Getaway and Guadalupe, a Group 1-winning mare.

    As for his Chelmsford success, although Capulet probably needed the run and could outrun his odds on Thursday, he beat a race-fit Orne who was sporting first-time cheekpieces.

    The top three in the market deserve plenty of respect, but Bracken’s Laugh gets the nod as his class has the ability to prevail.

     

    4:10 Chester – Dream Harder @ 8/1 with SkyBet (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The form of the Ian Williams stable is moderate at the moment (13% strike rate over the last two weeks) which offers extra confidence behind Dream Harder’s chances in the penultimate race.

    The five-year-old by Muhaarar is highly tried but he also knows how to win having found the winners’ enclosure five times in his last 16 runs since switching to Williams from Jamie Osborne.

    One of those successes came at Chester off a mark of 85, just three pounds below his current rating, and his win that day looked easy at the line.

    Since then, he finished fourth in a Windsor Racing League handicap, a race won by Spirit Dancer, who subsequently won the Bahrain International Trophy and Neom Turf Cup.

    Furthermore, Tiffany (now rated 15lbs higher having won a Listed race in Hanover) and Tregony (a subsequent Listed winner now rated 15lbs higher) filled out the two places ahead of him, and Dream Harder had a troubled passage through the race that day. Even the fifth, Teumessias Fox, won a handicap on his next start.

    As for this season, he finished a staying-on third behind Intinso – an eye-catcher on his latest start in a £100,000 Newmarket handicap – at Wolverhampton before bombing out at Kempton on his last start.

    If you can forgive his last run, he looks to have a solid chance on paper and Jim Crowley gets the leg up.

  • Chester May Festival Day 1 | A Roodee Storm

    Chester May Festival Day 1 | A Roodee Storm

    The Flat season is now well into gear following Punchestown and the Guineas last weekend, and the first day of the Chester May Festival is a good way to mark this changing of the guard.

    After a good amount of time spent talking about three-mile chasers (which is my passion) through the winter, my inner Flat brain is eager to see some rapid sprinters and Classic contenders.

    Chester is a tough place to bet due to the nature of the course, so the volume of fancies through this week won’t match that of the Punchestown Festival from last week.

    Speaking of the final big jumps meeting of the year, this column struggled to kick into gear over the first few days, but a helping hand from Minella Crooner on the final day pushed last week’s P&L to 18.5pts in profit. The overall P&L is slightly lower at 10pts.

    Considering the recent form over the last few months, a positive number in the P&L column is a welcome sight, so let’s not give it all back.

     

    1:30 Chester – Al Shabab Storm @ 7/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Starting with the opener, the Andrew Balding team have hit the ground running this Flat season (23% strike rate over the last two weeks) and that form can continue with Al Shabab Storm.

    The one negative against his name is stall 10, but his form is well above a few in here and he can make use of that if he gets a nice early position under Oisin Murphy.

    The three-year-old by Advertise debuted at Leicester in September 2023, but his best run of the month came 17 days later on much quicker ground at Newmarket when he ran into Accumulate.

    He hung left that day in the closing stages which allowed Accumulate to win, though the form of that race has worked out well as the winner won at Lingfield on his next start and the third, Native Warrior, ran into the subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech at Kempton in April 2024.

    After that, he ran a good race on heavy ground at Doncaster when fourth behind Ballymount Boy, a good yardstick thanks to his form with Vandeek.

    Back to six furlongs is a positive, though his starting gate is the only worry.

     

    3:40 Chester – Cadogan Place @ 15/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Chester Vase is an interesting puzzle to decipher, but the 15/2 price of Cadogan Place is one of great interest.

    The Frankel two-year-old started his career with a victory over Hidden Law at Southwell in late March, and although he got the first run over Godolphin’s Dubawi colt, the ease at which Oisin Murphy travelled through the race was eye-catching.

    On paper, that form looks strong as the runner-up bolted up at Newbury on his next start and is the 5/2 second-favourite in this field.

    After all, that was his first run and it was on the all-weather, so he is entitled to come on for it now on the turf.

    He was well-backed on the day, which is an interesting fact, and he is a full brother to Quadrilateral, the 2017 Group 1 Fillies’ Mile winner who was also third to Love in the 2020 1000 Guineas.

    Considering all of this, I’m happy to chance him at 15/2.

  • Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part Two

    Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part Two

    Yesterday, we saw a shock as City Of Troy checked out of the 2000 Guineas in a major disappointment. Today will be a trickier challenge with the second Classic of the season, the 1000 Guineas. A rather open field with plenty due for improvement, so who takes the nod in today’s four to follow?

     

    Blast-Off

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    1:50 – William Hill Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed) – Kalpana @ 7/4 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Kalpana blew everyone at the Craven meeting, winning in handicap company by 10 lengths. That kind of form is useful when stepping up into Listed company, and should beat the field, who are somewhat either exposed or inexperienced. She has plenty of staying pedigree in her family so shouldn’t have a problem with the trip again.

    At a price, a horse I loved last season, Carolina Reaper. It’s hard to say if she will improve from two to three, but she is a Group Three winner (albeit in Germany). It’s a hike in distance and more of a fact-finding mission today, and breeding suggests overall a mile will be best. But her dam did get a mile-and-a-quarter when three years old, so 11/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports) may be worth a little punt.

     

    Alert And Awake

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    2:25 – William Hill Dahila Stakes (Group Two) – Stay Alert @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Stay Alert may be a little underestimated in the field. She wasn’t successful at Group One level, and this may more to her taste. She’s won twice going fresh plus she’ll get her ground. Also stepping down a touch to a mile and a furlong might bring the best out of her. Plus, she’s top rated without having to give any weight away which makes her price all the more appealing.

    Caernarfon was an Oaks horse, many people forget. And she finished third. She did get stepped down to a mile and a quarter, but never produced her best. Her last win came over a mile, and she’s only a furlong above that. Plus, a course win only enhances her chances further. She’s a little shorter than I expected, but she should go well. 9/2 (William Hill, BetUK).

     

    Golden Ring

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    3:00 – William Hill Handicap (Heritage) – Bague D’Or @ 13/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Bague D’or is a horse who can go really well fresh, with two wins and two seconds. A slight negative is he is off the same mark as he was at the end of last season. But he did only race twice last season and this run may bring about more improvement. Mickael Barzalona is a really interesting jockey booking and may deliver a first win in less than two years.

    Adjuvant is another horse who can go well fresh with a win and two places. He inexplicably had a brief campaign over hurdles during the Winter, but he’s definitely a flat horse. He drops two pounds to a mark he finished second at the Goodwood Festival last year, where he was nearly two lengths ahead of third. Adjuvant won over C&D last May off a higher mark but has every right to hit the frame. 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Struth is a really interesting character. He’s won twice off a break, including on debut. He finished third over 1m 6F at Haydock last season, which is his only experience over the trip, so is still a bit unexposed. 96 is a mark he can give or take, but given he’s won two races in his career in the spring, now may be the time to back him. 11/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    A Classic Renewal

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    1000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Fallen Angel @ 100/30 (General)

    Yesterday, we all thought we knew how the first Classic of the season would go. Now the second Classic is here, it’s opened up enormously. However, a Group One winner in Fallen Angel should not be discounted. Brilliant backs the form up from her win in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last season, but so does her win in the Sweet Solera. Bred from a Group Mile winner, she should have it in her to win this race.

    It may be a surprise that Porta Fortuna turns up here, but she almost won at the Breeders’ Cup. She came within half a length at a distance that she had not experienced that season, which shows a massive improvement at a young age. She should get the distance now she’s three, and her dam won over further in her career. Definitely a watch at 14/1 (Unibet).

    Darnation lit up my eyes when watching her live at Thirsk breaking her maiden. She achieved Group success since, but just failed in the Criterium for Fillies and Longchamp. She’s a proven Group winner over the distance which should stand her in good stead, despite her being 33/1 (William Hill, 10Bet).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part One

    Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part One

    And we’re off with the first Classic of the season, the 2000 Guineas. After all the hype could we finally see City Of Troy become a world beater or will Rosallion, quotes as one of the best Richard Hannon has trained, snatch victory. Plus a terrific undercard too. It’s a two-parter Newmarket Guineas Four to Follow.

     

    The Classic Chairman

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    1:45 – William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap (Heritage) – Chairmanoftheboard @ 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Being at least a pound well in a handicap like this can make all the difference. And that is what exactly Chairmanoftheboard is. He was only beaten by a head at the Craven meeting and hasn’t moved off his mark of 86. Surely with the downpour everyone has had in the country has hit Newmarket too and should have enough dig to have his preferred ground and will have a good go at this.

    An interesting quote from Richard Hannon about this horse is “The more trouble he gets in the better.” Mums Tipple didn’t have that much of a successful season last year, with only a win at Chelmsford in March. However, his all-weather mark and turf mark are five pounds apart, with the turf mark more appealing. Plus he seems to act well at the start of the season as well, so should go near at 12/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports).

    It’s also worth giving a mention at a big price for Desert Cop. He’s been dropped a full ten pounds from his last turf appearance in the Ayr Gold Cup. He was last seen finishing last whilst finishing top weight at Kempton and the significant drop might signal some improvement from a horse who’s won early on in the season before. 22/1 (General).

     

    Catch A Dutchman

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    2:20 – William Hill Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – Dutch Decoy @ 15/2 (General)

    For a horse who finished within a neck last time out and is a pound well in on the handicap, it’s hard to figure out why Dutch Decoy is the price that he is. He’s higher in the weights than last year, but not by much showing that he is an improving horse. Johnston horses love to make the running and with everything in favour for Dutch Decoy, most will be playing catch me if you can.

    Majestic is a big Newmarket lover. A winner of the Cambridgeshire, he didn’t exactly follow up but put in a good shift at the start of last season in this race. He returns at a lower mark and conditions should be in his favour. He was only beaten a length into fifth last time out at the Craven meeting so he should be in and around the finish according to the handicapper. 9/1 (William Hill).

    If there’s one jockey that everyone should take note of, it’s Saffie Osborne. A hugely talented rider, and she gets the leg up on Mustazeed. A horse who, last season, began really well. However, he’s been on a mark of 88 for a while and has only come down after a poor performance at the end of last season. His last win came on good ground so conditions may suit for a big run. 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Mit-Baah Humbug

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    2:55 – William Hill Palace House Stakes (Group Three) – Mitbaahy @ 100/30 (Unibet)

    Three-year-olds don’t have a great record early on in the Palace House so I’ve looked to the more experienced type. Mitbaahy wasn’t too far away in the Abernant during the Craven meeting, and sometimes needs a run before he needs to be considered. Whilst not a Group One horse, he’s certainly a horse who can act at this level.

     

    Definitely Not Wooden

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    2000 GUINEAS (GROUP ONE) – City Of Troy @ 8/11 (William Hill, Unibet)

    If there’s one horse that everyone has been waiting for this flat season, it’s City Of Troy. Everyone has waited for this horse to compete in the Guineas after his win in the Dewhurst Stakes, often a great pointer to this race. Rosallion does have good form behind him, but City Of Troy has rather better.

    Alyanaabi finished second to City Of Troy in the Dewhurst and has his form boosted by Boiling Point, from the Tattersalls Stakes, winning yesterday at Newmarket. He’s bred by Too Darn Hot, which means he will certainly get a mile. It may be a question of ground after winning twice on firmer surfaces. But Shadwell usually gets their breeding right. 18/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Punchestown Festival Day 5 and Newmarket Guineas Best Bets

    Punchestown Festival Day 5 and Newmarket Guineas Best Bets

    It’s the final day of the Punchestown Festival, a week that has certainly had its fair share of varying results.

    As for yesterday, this column managed to get Brides Hill across the line, though there was a bit of bad luck through Flanking Maneuver and Lifetime Ambition.

    Still, with action from Punchestown and Newmarket to look forward to, let’s dive in.

     

    1:15 Newmarket – Heritage House @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW (3 places)

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    Over in the opener at Newmarket, Heritage House gets the allowances from her elders and she has some nice two-year-old form in the book.

    The three-year-old by Dark Angel is out of Global Light, a half-sister to the top sire Mehmas, and she ran in the Listed Nell Gwyn Stakes last month on her first start at seven furlongs, though she was a bit keen and had a troubled passage through the race.

    The Nell Gywn looks like solid form as she stayed on behind the Guineas-bound Pretty Crystal and Dance Sequence.

    Before that, she finished fourth to Romantic Style (Charlie Appleby’s Night Of Thunder three-year-old who beat Ramatuelle in the Group 3 Prix Imprudence) in the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes, a race that also included Adaay In Devon (rated 100) and Navassa Island.

    With two bits of solid form at Newmarket and race fitness in the book, she looks likely to run a big race.

     

    3:05 Punchestown – Neveradullmoment @ 9/1 with SkyBet (1pt EW) & Bowtogreatness @ 28/1 with Bet365 (0.5pt EW) (6 places)

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    Two horses look likely to hit the frame in the second race at Punchestown, the first of which is Neveradullmoment.

    He’s tried three miles once before and ran a good race but was hampered at the second-last fence, yet he still stayed on.

    The step up to nearly four miles can encourage improvement, and he has form behind Intense Raffles (the Irish Grand National winner) and Where It All Began (Grand National Trial winner) from a novice chase at Fairyhouse in January.

    He was also behind owner-mate Perceval Legallois on chase debut over 2m2f and he has form on ground varying from yielding to heavy.

    As for Bowtogreatness, he’s a slightly sentimental bet, but Ben Pauling has made no secret in the regard that he holds him in.

    Although he disappointed in the Kim Muir, the race came just 18 days after his big run in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase which was maybe on the sharp side in hindsight.

    Furthermore, although his recent form comes on decent ground, his novice hurdle form came on soft and heavy ground and there’s no reason to suggest he’ll hate any softening in the surface.

    As for his mark, a rating of 130 is very lenient and Ben Pauling wouldn’t bring him to Punchestown for no reason.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – Minella Crooner @ 25/1 with SkyBet – 1pt EW (5 places)

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    Gordon Elliott’s Minella Crooner has always promised to land a big race over fences, and I’m hoping this theory occurs today.

    The eight-year-old finished second in the 2022 Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival behind this year’s Bet365 Gold Cup winner Minella Cocooner.

    He also split Journey With Me and Kilcruit over 2m4f in a maiden hurdle, two pieces of strong form.

    Since trying his hand over fences, he nearly beat Darrens Hope on his debut over the big obstacles (in a Grade 2 novice chase) when receiving weight before beating I Am Maximus, the 2024 Grand National winner, at Fairyhouse.

    As for this season, a victory over Joyeux Machin set a good tone before he was a fast-finishing third to Jungle Boogie (who was running well in the Gold Cup before a mistake at the third-last) and Classic Getaway in the Grade 3 Savills Chase on New Year’s Day.

    Although his last three outings haven’t made for great reading, a return to a sharper three miles around a course he’s always done well at (won a bumper, won a maiden hurdle, and ran well twice over fences) will suit and the recent rain in the last 24 hours will cause no harm as well.

    For a horse of his quality, a mark of 142 is lenient in this field.

     

    4:50 Punchestown – Kargese @ 13/8 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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    Today is a big day for Paul Townend in his search for the jockeys’ championship, and Kargese looks like one to help him on his journey.

    Although the four-year-old by Jeu St Eloi has raced at the Dublin Racing Festival, Cheltenham, and Aintree, she showed plenty of keenness on her last start which didn’t indicate any chance of her stopping.

    Her form with Majborough and Sir Gino from the two big UK festivals is the best here and I came out of Aintree with serious respect for her ability.

    She gets weight from the geldings, but she is a tough filly and her family tended to handle their races quite well.

     

    5:25 Punchestown – Monbeg Park @ 11/1 with Bet365 – 1pt EW (6 places)

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    Coming into this season, I fancied Monbeg Park to hit the frame at the top level in novice chases, but connections have decided to revert him to hurdles.

    That’s not usually something I’m too keen on, but he didn’t jump with much fluency at Punchestown on his last start and his novice hurdling form is top quality.

    He beat Spillane’s Tower (a subsequent two-time Grade 1 winner) and Uncle Phil (rated 149 over fences) at the Punchestown Festival last year and he was also second to Affordale Fury (the Albert Bartlett runner-up) on his debut over hurdles.

    Having won twice around the track, my theory is connections wouldn’t bring him back this season if he wasn’t spot on because he has had well-documented joint issues in the past.

    Therefore, with a lenient mark of 135, I hope he can outrun his odds.