Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Dance Sequence Can Step To Oaks glory

    Epsom Derby Festival | Dance Sequence Can Step To Oaks glory

    As Friday signals the start of Epsom Derby Weekend, with a decimated field in the Coronation Cup, The Oaks can spring a surprise in the shape of Dance Sequence.

    The third of five unofficial classics this term, this race last year was won by Frankie Dettori and Soul Sister, not seen since last July’s Prix de Paris.

    Nevertheless, the previous year’s victors have set up a run for Royal Ascot, likely in the Ribblesdale Stakes.

    And, in the case of Godolphin, 29 years on from their last Oaks victory, Charlie Appleby and Will Buick could finally be on to a good thing.

     

    False dawn?

    Coming into the new flat season, Dance Sequence looked poised for a fruitful campaign.

    However, after falling short in the Nell Gwyn last month, something of a no-show followed at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas.

    His admirers have since fallen by the wayside, but the Oaks presents the perfect opportunity to show her undoubted pedigree.

     

    Stealing in

    The daughter of former Irish 2000 Guineas winner, Dubawi, much is still expected of Dance Sequence.

    This weekend, she will likely go off at around the 18/1 mark with Betfred, but that will do little to discourage the Newmarket stable.

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    Indeed, as we have already seen this term, Notable Speech nipped in to win the 2000 Guineas at a lofty 14/1 for the famous blue silks.

     

    Taking down AP

    Dance Sequence’s biggest competition looks to be the ominous presence of Ylang Ylang.

    As Aidan O’Brien looks for a 11th Oaks title, the King of Ballydoyle has won this race seven times since 2012.

    Like Dance Sequence, the filly has her own questions to answer after finishing fifth behind the revelation that was Elmalka.

    And like Godolphin’s hope here, comes from rich racing blood in the shape of Frankel.

    Yes the posers are there for Ylang Ylang, but with the softer ground, the filly looks better set to impress.

    The going for the 1000 Guineas was good and her last two wins have been on soft turf.

    And boy, did this girl finish strong last October in the Fillies’ Mile.

     

    Outsiders

    Dance Sequence is currently one of the bigger outsiders for the Oaks, but two other runners at similar prices have decent chances.

    Not least Secret Satire, who proved a liking for faster ground as a sensational 22/1 winner of the Musidora at the Dante Festival.

    She could have issues with the turf on Friday, but then again posers were answered emphatically last time out.

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    Secret Satire is on the table at 11/1 with Unibet.

    Meanwhile, Trainer Ralph Beckett will quietly like the chances of his own Forest Fairy, who is unbeaten in two races.

    One of the few runners who have gone the trip – albeit on the AW – can she double up after the Cheshire Oaks earlier this month at 15/2 with 888sport?

     

    The 2024 Betfred Oaks takes place on Friday 31 May, race time 4:30pm.

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Pressure mounts on City of Troy

    Epsom Derby Festival | Pressure mounts on City of Troy

    As Derby Weekend at Epsom approaches, all eyes are on the Betfred Derby and City of Troy.

    The second classic of season, the pressure is on Aidan O’Brien’s colt after a no-show as red-hot favourite in the Qipco 2000 Guineas earlier this month.

    From fluffing his lines at Newmarket, can the 3yo return to winning ways on the Downs?

     

    Guineas no-show

    What quite went wrong with City of Troy in the 2000 Guineas, remains a mystery.

    For a Newmarket pro, a performance so lacking in prowess left both punters and pundits alike shrugging their shoulders.

    On Guineas Day is Suffolk, City of Troy was a little more sweaty in the parade ring, and ultimately things were just not ‘right’ on the Rowley Mile.

    So this weekend, the question will again be poised whether he can handle the pressure.

     

    Challengers poised

    City of Troy is under the pump this weekend, pressure made no easier by stablemate, Los Angeles.

    And he could very well be the Trojan horse to Troy.

    Unbeaten in three, AP O’Brien’s second of six entries has been nibbled away in the markets and could go off close to, if not jf.

    Making his UK debut, like Troy, the son of Camelot has won on differing ground to date.

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    Not only that, Los Angeles has travelled 2f further than Troy in all career races, and just a further 2f less than the Derby trip.

    Meanwhile, Godolphin seek a third Derby winner in Ancient Wisdom, but perhaps, Ambiente Friendly, is the form horse of the bunch.

    Bolting up to win the Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield a few weeks back, trainer James Fanshawe has big hopes.

    Ambiente Friendly needs too find another half furlong, but his chances look strong.

    He may just however, be let down by the juicier ground.

     

    Long punts

    Below the top four in the market, there is some decent value to be had.

    Not least in Bellum Justum, who comes here seeking a third win on the spin.

    Trainer Andrew Balding has won two classics to date but not since the 2003 Oaks with Casual Look.

    Yet, his chances look healthy here at a lofty price, after taking victory in the Blue Riband Trial on the Downs last month.

    Bellum Justum looks a decent shout at 25/1 with William Hill.

    Meanwhile, Dallas Star looks an even bigger punt, but has won two of the last three.

    Coming here with a win in the Ballysax Stakes, the ground won’t be quite as heavy as to his liking.

    However, if the going remains soft enough at Epsom, he can fall back on his Stayers’ Novice Stakes win over 1m on soft at Bath last October.

    There is no reason Dallas cannot be the Star at Epsom, at a monster punt of 40/1 with 888sport.

     

    The 2024 Betfred Derby takes place on Saturday 1 June at 4:30pm UK time.

  • Epsom Derby Festival | 28/1 Auguste Rodin can rise in Coronation Cup

    Epsom Derby Festival | 28/1 Auguste Rodin can rise in Coronation Cup

    Saturday’s Betfred Derby will gain most of the attention at Epsom this weekend, however, Friday’s Coronation Cup might just steal the show.

    The fifth British Champions Series contest of the season, Emily Upjohn is favourite to defend her crown, but Luxembourg and Time Lock will have other ideas.

    However, as a champion returns to the Downs, Auguste Rodin might just be eyeing an upset.

     

    Off the radar

    If we take a glance at the markets for the Coronation Cup, it seems not only the bookies but the punters have forgotten how good Auguste Rodin can be.

    Yes, his first two runs of the season may have been less than impressive, but his runner-up finish behind White Birch in the Tattersalls Gold Cup only last weekend was a huge improvement.

    With just one outing on the Downs it is difficult to say whether the 4yo really likes Epsom or not, but memories of last June are sure to flood back.

     

    Derby glory

    In May 2023, it all went so wrong for Auguste Rodin.

    A strong 13/8f for the 2000 Guineas, the son of Deep Impact never got to grips with the Rowley Mile, finishing a lowly 12th out of 14 runners.

    As Chaldean and Frankie Dettori came home at 9/2 for a fitting Newmarket send-off, it was a setback.

    Less than a month later however, Auguste rode in for Derby glory.

    Hauling back King of Steel over the final furlongs, Auguste Rodin won a ninth Derby for his trainer and third for Ryan Moore.

    Firmly consigning his doubters to the scrap heap, Irish Derby, Irish Champion Stakes and then Breeders’ Cup Turf spoils followed.

    Pundits might point to this weekend’s ground not being firm or fast enough, but they should remember his two wins on tackier turf on his debut season.

    Only rank outsider, Hans Andersen will fetch a longer price in this contest, but as 28/1 shots with SpreadEx go, names won’t come bigger.

    Do not be surprised if Auguste Rodin pulls a rabbit from the hat.

     

    Long punts

    Auguste Rodin looks set to go off at some whack for the Coronation Cup, but he will be joined by a rampant White Birch.

    Too strong for Rodin at the Curragh last Sunday, the 4yo of JJ Murphy came home third in last year’s Derby behind both the former and King of Steel.

    An improved horse and clearly in form having won the last three, if White Birch gets a bit of extra rain before the weekend, Colin Keane could be in business at a baffling long price of 20/1 with Unibet.

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    The one other price angle, punters should take a look at Hamish.

    Unbeaten in five, the 2022 Irish St. Leger runner-up – behind Kyprios only – has during that period won a Silver Cup, and also a Kings Plate at Glorious Goodwood last summer.

    A short-price winner on most occasions, his price this Friday is significantly higher.

    With no issues in regard to the projected ground though, if anything, should the going flip to good to soft, a 16/1 punt with BetUK might fare favourably.

     

    The Coronation Cup takes place on Friday at Epsom, race time 3:10pm UK time.

  • Four To Follow: Irish 1000 Guineas

    Four To Follow: Irish 1000 Guineas

    After a hectic day of racing and Cup Final football, we continue the madness with the play-off final and the Irish 1000 Guineas. Over here we focus on the racing and can Aidan O’Brien make it 11 wins in the second Irish Classic? Or can it be a UK Irish Guineas double? Find out below, plus all tips from Group races at The Curragh

     

    Loveable Rogue

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    2:35 – Lanwades Stud Stakes (Group Two) – Rogue Millennium @ 15/8 (William Hill)

    Rogue Millennium was a great story for Tom Clover and the Rogues Gallery, but now she resides with Joseph O’Brien under the colours of Scott Helder. This could herald a new start for the Royal Ascot winning filly and she begins her five-year-old career here. She seems to go well between a mile and a mile and a quarter and the ground will be in her favour too. She was also runner up to Tahyira at Leopardstown last year so there is plenty of talent in her.

    Ocean Jewel had a bit of a hard time last year and couldn’t quite find her groove, but the stable are looking more confident with her this season. She won a Group Three in June but failed to fire in two subsequent Group One’s. A Group Two might be a bit of a stiff start, but as a half-sister to 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth, she’ll improve with age. 7/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    A Champion Returns

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    3:10 – Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group One) – Auguste Rodin @ Evs (William Hill)

    You just don’t know what you’re going to get with Auguste Rodin. One race he’s the champion of the world, the next he just doesn’t feel like racing. He was thoroughly disappointing in Dubai yet lit up the Breeders’ Cup. This looks a little more straightforward for the Irish Champion Stakes winner and has already beaten the second favourite twice. This is a race he should dominate.

     

    Get Back Up Again

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    3:45 – Irish 1000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Fallen Angel @ 9/2 (General)

    This is a wide-open contest. Opera Singer has been saved for this race, but with comments like ‘she’ll come on for the run’ fill me with doubt. Therefore, I’m going with the tried and tested Fallen Angel. Already a winner at the course, she looked as though she going to be up there at the finish at Newmarket but hung left and was pushed right. If she can replicate her Moyglare run, she could be hard to beat.

    One I particularly like in the field is the unbeaten A Lilac Rolla. She beat Opera Singer on her second start by a head, and the form worked out for her well after that. She’s come down the most common trial to win this race, the Priory Belle. The form stacked up well from that race and is from a family who love the mile trip. She’s capable on the ground too. A threat at 17/2 (General).

     

    Nothing But The Truth

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    4:15 – Gallinule Stakes (Group Three) – Spoken Truth @ 3/1 (General)

    Half of these horses are experienced at two-year-old level, and some are starting their careers off this season. I’m voting for the horse that has already won over a mile and a quarter. Spoken Truth was nothing but impressive at Cork against an Aidan O’Brien runner that went close again next time out. The fact that she’s a half-sister to Irish 1000 Guineas winner Homeless Songs makes her all the more appealing.

    The very best of luck!

  • Irish 2000 Guineas Day | Storm brewing in the Ocean

    Irish 2000 Guineas Day | Storm brewing in the Ocean

    After a few blockbuster weeks filled with plenty of columns, we are back to regular scheduled viewing with Irish 2000 Guineas Day this weekend.

    Saying that, today’s action would excite even the most pessimistic horse racing fan as there’s something for everyone.

    With a Classic card over in Ireland, competitive racing in Haydock, and interesting contests at both York and Goodwood, what’s not to like?

    So, with this in mind, let’s highlight a few bets for Saturday’s mouth-watering action.

     

    1:30 Goodwood – Al Shabab Storm @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Al Shabab Storm was unlucky not to land the spoils for the column at Chester on his last start, and I don’t want to ditch him here in the opener at Goodwood.

    A few things are different today compared to Chester as this is a Class 2 handicap and over seven furlongs, but the three-year-old by Advertise came close to winning over this distance at Newmarket in September and he’s run well in Listed company before.

    Looking back on the Chester run, he put in some effort despite not winning as he raced out the back for a while and Oisin Murphy made the decision to pull him out to give him a clear view at the line.

    In my mind, Murphy did this as he knew the ability he had underneath him, but this resulted in him coming six-wide into the home straight while the winner had a nice route up the rail.

    A reproduction of that run would see him go close here, and a mark of 90 still looks workable.

     

    1:50 Haydock – Flora Of Bermuda @ 16/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    Backing three-year-old sprinters immediately after their juvenile campaign is always a brave game, but the angle with Flora Of Bermuda is one I can’t ignore.

    The Dark Angel was a sharp filly last year as she nearly won on debut and then finished sixth in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot; she was on the wrong side of the track that day but still finished first of her group.

    That race is a solid piece of form as the winner, Crimson Advocate, finished sixth behind Big Evs in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and the second, Relief Rally, won the Group 2 Lowther Stakes subsequently.

    Speaking of Big Evs, Andrew Balding’s £340,000 purchase was second to the globetrotting superstar in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster in September.

    However, it’s Flora Of Bermuda’s win at Goodwood in August that has caught my attention the most.

    On that day, she bolted up over five furlongs on soft ground on the same day that Big Evs won the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes.

    She carried one pound less than Michael Appleby’s stable star, but her final two furlongs were quicker than that of Big Evs and the overall race times were almost identical.

    This occurred on a day when the ground was constantly worsening due to persistent rain as well.

    Overall, 16/1 looks like a huge price for her in the Group 2 Temple Stakes for all the reasons above.

     

    2:30 Curragh – Ocean Quest @ 12/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    One yard that is in red-hot form currently is the Jessica Harrington team, and I’m hoping Ocean Quest can continue that trend in the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes.

    Firstly, I think an important point to highlight is the ground conditions at the Curragh as the official going is good which places an element of doubt over the favourite, the Curragh specialist Art Power.

    Of his nine career successes, only two have come on good ground and his best recent form has occurred on a slightly slower surface.

    As for Ocean Quest, although she won on heavy at the start of last season, that success was a weird run as the two Aidan O’Brien horses didn’t fire and connections have pulled her from two separate races due to heavy ground.

    Last season, she finished a good fourth in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup behind Shaquille and Little Big Bear (a strong piece of form) and then bolted up in a Group 3 at Naas (the second won a Listed race two starts later).

    Two subsequent runs on soft ground didn’t suit her, but she made an eye-catching return last month when second to Moss Tucker over five furlongs on yielding ground.

    She had no clear passage last time out, though she quickened away smartly when the gap appeared and Shane Foley eased her down once he realised victory was out of the equation.

    She’s likely to come on for that run and the return to six furlongs is a positive.

     

    3:20 York – Trevaunance @ 11/1 with Sky Bet (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Finally, over at York, it’s another Jessica Harrington-trained horse that I’m taking a swing on as Trevaunance is a very interesting contender in the Group 3 Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes.

    The five-year-old steps up to 1m6f for the first time today, and although that is an unknown, there’s not much to suggest she won’t get this new trip.

    Once you get around that barrier, her chance in this company looks strong.

    Out of the 2013 Group 3 Musidora Stakes winner Liber Nauticus, the five-year-old by Muhaarar has always shown ability throughout her career and she has Group 1 form in the book to boast about.

    Last season, she was fourth to Mqse De Sevigne in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet before she finished third in the Group 2 Blanford Stakes.

    Lumiere Rock and Jackie Oh, the 1-2 from the Blanford Stakes, went on to frank the form as they finished third and second respectively behind Blue Rose Cen in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera.

    Even looking back on her form from 2022 is promising as she beat Mqse De Sevigne on two occasions in France.

    Harrington sending one so far for a race away from the main Flat festivals is always worth a second look, and if she takes to this extended trip, she has the form in the book to win this contest.

  • Four To Follow: Living The Dream + Irish 2000 Guineas

    Four To Follow: Living The Dream + Irish 2000 Guineas

    It’s a busy day all around the British Isles. Premier racedays at Haydock and Goodwood, a group race at York plus the small matter of Irish Guineas Weekend over at The Curragh. You could say racing fans are in a dream world today. I’ve managed to distil it down to three races at Haydock plus the main Group One event for Four To Follow.

     

    Haydock

    No More Rain

    1:15 – Betfred Silver Bowl Handicap (Heritage) – Candonomore @ 4/1 (BetVictor)

    With the removal of Volterra from proceedings, signs show that the ground is not just soft, it’s Haydock soft. One horse who can combat this is the new favourite, Candonomore for Tim Easterby. He won not only over C&D last time out, but also on similar ground too. Despite being impressive, winning by nearly four lengths, he comes into this race bottom of the weights and looks very appealing.

    Sir Les Patterson is making his turf debut today but should command respect with two wins to his name. His last win at Kempton saw him holding off a late challenge and digging in deep. He’s drawn next to Volterra in stall 12, so will have the challenge of overcoming a particularly nasty draw. Nut the trend for this race has been horses coming off the back of a couple of wins, and Sir Les Patterson ticks that box and is weighted nicely. Each-way value at 10/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Things Can Only Get Better

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    1:50 – Betfred Temple Stakes (Group Two) – Live In The Dream @ 7/2 (General)

    Live In The Dream was one of the best stories of the season when he won the Nunthorpe at the Ebor meeting, but sadly the American dream didn’t come true. Last year he came third in this race, beaten by the then three-year-old Dramatised. He had a few hard luck stories last season but comes in here top weighted. Some will say that Live In The Dream wants fast rattling ground, but he has won and performed on soft well previously.

    As mentioned, three-year-olds have a decent record in the race. With so much weight given to them it’s hard to ignore. Seven Questions should have the answers. In his two-year-old season he showed a liking for soft ground, so will handle it at Haydock, and comes into this race off the back of a win. He managed to fly home down the outside on the Rowley mile on good ground, so the softer the better for him. 14/1 (General).

     

    Never Forget

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    2:25 – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Sandy Lane Stakes (Group Two) – Vandeek @ 8/13 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Everyone has seem to have forgotten about Vandeek. He’s an unbeaten colt who performed exceptionally well last season and improved with every run. If you look at his form, he’s won on all sorts of ground, including soft. The form worked out into this season when Givemethebeatboys, third in last year’s Cheveley Park, won at Naas in April. I have every confidence he will deliver.

    One of my favourite horses in training, Purosangue, should run a decent race in behind. Knowing his mother, Avon Breeze, he will definitely get the ground. He’s also proven that with a win at York at the back-end of last season. Despite being one of the low rated horses in the race, ground will matter a lot over the sprint course. 9/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Curragh

    Not Another One

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    3:40 – Irish 2000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Rosallion @ 10/11 (William Hill)

    If there’s one thing separating River Tiber and Rosallion, it’s that Rosallion has run and won over a mile. Rosallion finished the best of the favourites behind Notable Speech but was himself nearly two lengths clear of third. Top rated and surely heading for a rematch against Notable Speech at Ascot, he has to be feared most here. And there doesn’t look to be another major upset in this one.

    I also think that for the Irish, Unquestionable is their best shout. Unquestionable has form behind Rosallion, in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere, and followed that second up with a win at the Breeders’ Cup. For Ryan Moore to choose a horse that hasn’t run over a mile may prove to be unwise, and I’m going with the second runner for Ballydoyle to run a good race in behind the odds-on favourite. 7/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Between A Rock & A Hard Place

    Four To Follow: Between A Rock & A Hard Place

    After a mixed week at the Dante Festival, we now move in to the first Group One for the older horses this season. The straight mile at Newbury sees the Lockinge Stakes return, with an international feel. A French raider is in town, can he stamp his authority? Plus a cracking undercard to complete Saturday’s Four To Follow.

     

    A Hot Hero

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    1:50 – Aston Park Stakes (Group Three) – Desert Hero @ 11/10 (William Hill)

    We kick off Lockinge Day with the Aston Park and Desert Hero comes to Newbury looking to avenge his agonising defeat at Sandown in April. He was only beaten by a neck by Okeechobee, but was rallying all the way to the line and needed a few extra yards. From that warm up race he’s been stepped up to his usual mile-and-a-half and stepped down to a Group Three. His near odds-on price should come as a shock to no one.

     

    Taking Relief

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    2:25 – Carnarvon Stakes (Listed) – Relief Rally @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Relief Rally was one of the impressive two-year-olds over the sprint distance. She certainly showed her speed both over the flying five in the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury and in the Group Two Lowther at York. Her reappearance was a little off over seven furlongs, but back down to the sprint distance, down in class and with a weight allowance, Relief Rally should kickstart what could be a terrific day for William Haggas.

     

    King To Knight

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    3:00 – London Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) – King’s Gambit @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    One of the hotly anticipated three-year-old handicaps of the season, this often dictates how this year’s crop are going to fair. King’s Gambit in particular is one of unique interest. He had a decent enough novice career, winning over a mile at the course as a two-year-old. But trainer Harry Charlton has been aiming this horse at the London Gold Cup all winter. Being high in the handicap is not a bad thing in this race, particularly if you’ve got a lot of ability.

    Joanna Mason and Mick & David Easterby celebrated a shock winner at the Dante Festival this week. And they haven’t been bad recently, training four good winners in the process. Mason has had a few wins and places herself too. They team up and head down South with Spirit Of Acklam, who has improved stepping up in distance each time. His win at Ripon by three lengths is one to take note of. 10/1 (William Hill).

    Form also counts in this race, particularly when you’ve finished behind a Classic winner. Persica was third behind Notable Speech at Kempton last time out, before he went and won the Guineas a couple of weeks ago. In his novice career, it looked as though he needed juice in the ground to be at his best. He looks like he’s got his ground here and form to match a nice weight in the race. 9/1 (William Hill).

     

    What The Rock Is Cooking…

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    3:35 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Big Rock @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    I’ve been waiting, like many people have, to see Big Rock reappear. And when a horse who thrashed British horses by 15-and-a-half lengths, it’s a worry. He does have to contest with Inspiral, who can return well but will want the ground firm. Big Rock can go anything with juice in the ground. It will also be interesting to see how he performs for a new stable, four weeks after he moved in.

    For the Brits, Charyn has had an excellent start to the season. He was dominant in both the Doncaster Mile and bet365 Mile at Sandown. Whilst they were both Listed and Group Two races, he showed a Group One ability that might see him hit the frame. Or even win and make it a stunning start to the season for Silvestre De Sousa and Roger Varian. 6/1 (General).

    It’s also great to see Royal Scotsman reappear. Third in the 2000 Guineas last year, he had excuses of why he ran so poorly in the Irish 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes. We then didn’t see him run for the rest of the season, but he’s back and thrown straight into the deep end. The vibes are good from the Cole stable, and could run well and set up some nice prizes later down the line. 14/1 (Betfred, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: Willie’s In The… Group Race?

    Four To Follow: Willie’s In The… Group Race?

    We resumed normal service with two winners and four places. Clarendon House and Economics made us end in profit and go into the final day of the Dante Festival on an even keel. Today it’s the turn of the older horses, with the Yorkshire Cup taking centre stage. And there’s one horse who looks like he shouldn’t belong there…

     

    A Blooming Bet

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    2:45 – Knights Solicitors Handicap – Botanical @ 100/30 (General)

    Botanical was one of my bets for Chester last week, but swerved the Roodee due to the ground and has come up to the Knavesmire. Roger Varian hasn’t had the best of times lately, but he’s waited to get Botanical out for a while and thinks his best opportunity is here. The bend will help him, given his wins have come at Hamilton, which has a bend. Ground is in his favour and his last run was finishing six lengths in front of the Lincoln winner, Mr Professor.

    Eilean Dubh has had a dry spell since mid-Summer last year. But he showed some promise last time out at Thirsk and should come on for the run. Stepped back up in trip and down two pounds to a mark of 89 should make the world of difference. He’s run and won over a mile before, but this step up in trip could show a new side to Eilean Dubh. Unexposed at 10/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    I can’t ignore a horse who’s well-in in the handicap. Loyal Touch for local trainer Charlie Johnston was only half-a-length behind the eventual winner Tony Montana when he just couldn’t keep on. But he was clear two-and-a-half lengths clear of third and has been ultra consistent in his last three runs. One narrow win and two narrow defeats, plus well-in in the handicap makes Loyal Touch one to watch. 9/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    Colourful And Bright

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    3:15 – Michael Seely Memorial Fillies’ Stakes (Listed) – True Cyan @ 4/1 (General)

    True Cyan might be a little looked over in the market after her fourth in the Nell Gwyn Stakes, but the form is backed up, somewhat. Kathmandu ran a blinder in the French 1000 Guineas last Sunday and finished a little under two lengths behind her. Her maiden win has been backed with plenty of form and the step up to the mile will suit her better than seven furlongs.

    And just one little shoutout to Carolina Reaper. She was sent on a fact-finding mission over ten furlongs where she ran into Friendly Soul. She was extremely disappointing in the Musidora, but 10 furlongs was never her distance. The mile will suit her so much better and at this level, she should run a big race at 25/1 (General).

     

    Group Getter

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    3:45 – Yorkshire Cup (Group Two) – Vauban @ 7/2 (General)

    How is Vauban second favourite? In a Group race? Over a mile and six furlongs? Trained by the British Champion jumps trainer?

    Tower Of London was good in the Middle East, take nothing away from those performances. But he’s up against a Royal Ascot winner, a Grade One winning hurdler and a horse who has now been rerouted to go on the flat. Vauban is a made Gold Cup, if not Group One winner. His price boggles the mind.

     

    Surrounded

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    4:15 – Darley EBF Novice Stakes – Under Siege @ 7/4 (William Hill)

    An intriguing novice stakes makes up our fourth race, and one horse comes in with his form rocket boosted. Under Siege was beaten by none other than Economics and still stands as second favourite. There are some more boosts behind Under Siege as well and Andrew Balding has had a good patch of form recently. Local rider Danny Tudhope gives him an extra boost.

    Dark Tornado has also some good form behind him after finishing second last September. He’s joined James Horton, who looks to have a useful horse on his hands and should have progressed well from two to three. He has plenty of distance form, over the mile, in his breeding and is an interesting price at 9/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Get Four For Free

    Four To Follow: Get Four For Free

    The Dante Festival and York remained as unpredictable as ever. The Placepot won over £28,000, which just shows how unpredictable yesterday was for not only backing winners but backing each-way shots too. Hopefully today is easier with four more tips from the Knavesmire.

    A Full House

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    2:15 – Lindum York Handicap – Clarendon House @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    With the ground now good, Clarendon House has a great opportunity. He’s been running on the All-weather this Winter and has found success. No less on his current mark of 105. Whilst he did come fourth on heavy ground on his first turf start of the season, he was only one-and-a-half lengths behind, so the ground can be blamed for that result. On a winning mark, with good ground in his favour and drawn next the pace which comes from stall 11, he presents one of the best chances in the race.

    Alligator Alley is no stranger to York. His last result on the Knavesmire was only beaten by a neck during the Ebor Festival. Since then, he’s mostly been running on the all-weather and comes into this race low in the weights. He’s dropped down to a mark of 89 so it should suit him better. He’s only won two turf races on firm ground, which is a worry. But a low mark should see him come over that obstacle. 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Good Earth looks to have a good chance as an outsider. With three pounds taken off by Connor Planas, he’s down to a previous winning mark. He loves give in the ground and he can go prominent as he’s drawn next to Arecibo. His last win came off a two-pound higher mark as well so he should be in the mix at the finish. 22/1 (General).

     

    Always Fun Up North

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    2:45 – Hambleton Handicap – Northern Express @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Northern Express loves York. He’s raced there for the Michael Dods team 13 times and won three. He’s finished in the top three eight times, so has a decent enough strike record over both a mile and seven furlongs. He can go any ground, but will appreciate the dig in the ground that going is giving. He’s on a mark of 100, which is only a pound above his highest winning mark of 99. Win number four incoming for Northern Express. Choo-Choo!

    Bopedro looks an interesting runner. He hasn’t won since August off a mark of 98, and he’s back down to that mark today. His best performances seem to come on marks in the 90s, so expect one today with a mark of 98. He can go on all sorts of ground and was placed at York last season as well. 25/1 (Boylesports) looks an absolute steal.

    Cruyff Turn won the race two years ago for Tim Easterby. He hasn’t been running well of late but goes down to a mark of 88. That’s two pounds below a previous mark of 90 and loves cut in the ground. He competed in this race last year off a seven pound higher mark and Easterby might have had this race in mind after disappointing in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. 20/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Let-Er Rip

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    3:15 – Middleton Stakes (Group Two) – Free Wind @ 7/4 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Free Wind goes extremely well fresh. She’s won all three of her races off a break and doesn’t seem to come on for the runs after. However she did win four races as a three-year-old. She won this race last season by half a length and all her opponents had decent seasons after that. Don’t expect anything of Free Wind this season unless she’s coming off a break.

     

    Wisdom Number Four

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    3:45 – Dante Stakes (Group Two) – Ancient Wisdom @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    Ancient Wisdom looks a lot more solid as a Derby contender than most. His form as a two-year-old stacks up impressively with three winners and three places from the Futurity Trophy. He’s by the legend that is Dubawi and out of a Group Three winning mare over a mile-and-a-half. He should come on for the step up in trip and handle it well.

    Don’t discount Economics in this race. Two winners have already come out of his maiden win at Newbury and were well down the field against Economics. Despite being by a miler, his mother was a Group Two winner over a mile and a half so will handle the step up in trip and looks a nice price at 15/2 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • York Dante Festival Day 1 Bets | Talented but quirky

    York Dante Festival Day 1 Bets | Talented but quirky

    Saturday’s column covering the action at Ascot and Lingfield regained the losses obtained from Chester last week, so we sit in profit ahead of the York Dante Festival.

    Fair play to the ground staff at York Racecourse for their frequent and detailed updates on the ground, so it looks as if the ground will start on good, good to firm in places.

    Let’s dive in.

     

    2:15 York – Chillingham @ 7/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the opener, there are a few reasons to think Chillingham could run well under Callum Rodriguez.

    Trainer Edward Bethell applies the first-time cheekpieces to his five-year-old by Ulysses today, and based on his recent performances, this should help as he wandered slightly when second at Wolverhampton three starts ago.

    Speaking of that run, that marked his first dive into a 14-furlong race and P J McDonald decided to stride on with him early into the race, so he did well to remain in contention at the line on his first start at the extended distance.

    Prydwen (who has improved 14lbs since) won the race and Zealandia (rated 4lbs higher) finished third; Zealandia beat stablemate Enemy two starts later, a piece of form that looks strong as Enemy beat Military Order (2023 Lingfield Derby Trial winner) at Southwell before finishing second to Tower Of London in the Group 3 Red Sea Turf Handicap.

    The recent rain will help take the sting out of the ground, so he’ll have no excuses in that department, and a mark of 96 is 1lb below the mark he was on when he finished a close second at Ripon in a Class 2 0-105 handicap.

     

    4:15 York – Mortlake @ 8/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    If Ralph Beckett has Mortlake ready to go on his first start of the season, there is a lot to like about his profile in this handicap.

    The three-year-old has to shoulder top weight, but he deserves to based on his juvenile season.

    The 100,000gns purchased bolted up by five lengths at Leicester on his second start of the season before he contested the Group 3 Solario Stakes.

    He came home in fifth that day, beaten just over two lengths, but the third (Devil’s Point) finished second in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes on his next start.

    Furthermore, he shaped nicely behind horses that day and Rossa Ryan had to momentarily stop riding one furlong from home as his mount moved tight to the rail.

    Connections have gelded him since and he drops into handicap company for the first time, so his mark of 96 looks interesting.

     

    5:20 York – Wahraan @ 9/2 with William Hill (6 places) – 2pt Win

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    In the finale, despite his quirky character, Wahraan gets the nod in the Class 4 0-85 handicap.

    The six-year-old has had his fair share of issues so far during his career as he had a total of 786 days away from the track between September 2021 and December 2023.

    However, having started his career with Sir Michael Stoute, the six-year-old by Le Havre is under the guidance of Jamie Osborne and has scope in his mark to improve.

    Firstly, the chestnut gelding once had a rating of 96 – admittedly, in 2021 – but his time on the sidelines and a few poor runs have pushed his mark down to 82.

    On his last start, he wore a hood for the first time and dropped into a Class 4 handicap for the second time, and despite giving up nearly eight lengths at the start, he stayed on past horses to finish a close third.

    That wasn’t the first time he displayed issues at the starting stalls but it was the most pronounced event of his career.

    His actions out of the gates are a concern for today, but he is riddled with talent and he even comes from the same family as Was (2012 Epsom Oaks winner), Douglas Macarthur (2017 Group 3 Leopardstown Derby Trial winner), and Amhran Na Bhfiann (2020 Epsom Derby third).

    All things considered, I’ll give him a chance today.