Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Punchestown Festival Day 4 | A Mighty chance for Brides Hill

    Punchestown Festival Day 4 | A Mighty chance for Brides Hill

    The third day of the 2024 Punchestown Festival began with a brilliant story thanks to Singing Banjo in the La Touche Cup, but the subsequent fatal injuries sustained by Kilbeg King and Sire Du Berlais marred the day.

    Sire Du Berlais was a warrior of a horse – his Cheltenham Festival record speaks for itself – and Kilbeg King was a personal favourite of mine who held plenty of ability and potential. Thoughts are truly with those closest to these horses.

    As for the column, from the three bets put up, we returned profit on the day as Will Do placed in the three-mile handicap hurdle at 33/1.

    I did initially think Buddy One had also returned place money after his run in the Grade 1 Champion Stayers Hurdle, but Home By The Lee collared him for third on the line.

    Still, let’s roll on to the fourth day of the Punchestown Festival.

     

    3:00 Newmarket – Zouky @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    Starting at Newmarket rather than Punchestown, Zouky is worth looking at in the seven-furlong handicap on her second start of the season.

    Having run well over a mile on the all-weather at Kempton last month, she’ll come on for that and will appreciate a return to the turf.

    The four-year-old by Zoustar performed well in Listed company on two occasions last season when clashing with the likes of Queen Aminatu, Potapova, Breege, and Nine Tenths.

    However, it’s not just this form that looks good as she was second off 87 in a Doncaster handicap in September, a race that has seen Dark Thirty come out of and win subsequently.

    Furthermore, Poet Master (the winner) has improved since as shown by his nice handicap success at Newmarket earlier this year off a mark of 100.

    All in all, she has a good chance here back at seven furlongs.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – Flanking Maneuver @ 28/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The first handicap race of the day from Punchestown is very interesting, and a few horses made it onto the shortlist, but Flanking Maneuver is the one I’m siding with at the prices.

    Despite his age of nine, the Beat Hollow gelding is relatively lightly raced due to his 760 days away from the track between January 2021 and February 2023, but he showed his well-being in the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase last year.

    That race has worked out as Mahler Mission would have gone close in the 2023 Grade 2 National Hunt Chase if not for falling and he finished second in the Coral Gold Cup after that

    He has dipped his hoof into Grade 1 company on two occasions this season, one of which in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase where he finished fourth and the other came on his last start in the WillowWarm Gold Cup.

    Arguably, he has excuses for both the runs as in the former, he travelled well but found three miles on bottomless ground a bit tough at the end, and he was badly hampered by a faller on his latest start.

    A rating of 134 is very handy when considering the excuses for his recent disappointing efforts.

     

    4:50 Punchestown – Brides Hill @ 7/4 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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    Regular viewers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel or my X page already know the love I have for Brides Hill, and today is where she gets her preferred conditions.

    She was a non-runner at Cheltenham due to the soft conditions, so a return to a sounder surface will suit her.

    Her ability is apparent, especially on decent ground when going right-handed, and with Allegorie De Vassy’s potential preference for a slower surface, that puts Brides Hill ahead of her in my mind.

     

    5:25 Punchestown – Lifetime Ambition @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    When looking at any hunter chases at the big meetings, class tends to prevail and the nine-year-old Lifetime Ambition is one who still retains that old spark.

    The Kapgarde gelding was a decent performer for Jessica Harrington as a novice and handicap chaser – notably when second to Capodanno in the 2022 Grade 1 Dooley Insurance Champion Novice Chase – but he switched to point-to-points in October 2023.

    Since that switch, four of his last six races resulted in a win and his most recent success came at Cork during an 11-length victory.

    He has form on better ground and he is a quality horse, which is why he should go well on Friday.

     

    7:05 Punchestown – Mighty Bandit @ 18/1 with Bet365 (four places) – 1pt EW

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    Mighty Bandit has a classic profile of a horse I like to back in races like this and the 18/1 available has helped sweeten the deal on why I’m with him.

    The four-year-old by Order Of St George gets six pounds from his elders and is arguably still unexposed as he’s had just three runs, one of which was successful.

    That came on debut at Punchestown when trained by Gordon Elliott as he beat Lark In The Morning by nine lengths, a good piece of form considering Harsh – an impressive handicap hurdle winner earlier in the week – was back in third.

    After that, he went into Grade 2 Mercedes-Benz South Dublin Juvenile Hurdle as the 13/8 favourite but could only manage ninth. Admittedly, that was disappointing, but his wind was seemingly the issue as he had a wind-op soon after.

    Now with Warren Greatrex, he ran in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival on his first start for a while, so he’s likely to come on for that and a return to a sounder surface at an easier track will benefit him.

    He has to bounce back, and that’s why his price is so big, but the time of his Punchestown victory in November stacks up very well against the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle won by State Man (State Man was carrying 12lbs more) and he can outrun his odds.

  • Punchestown Festival Day 2 | High Class needs to Answer

    Punchestown Festival Day 2 | High Class needs to Answer

    Yesterday at the Punchestown Festival was a tough day to take as expectations were high for the two handicap chances but both failed to hit the frame and Monty’s Star ran into what looked like a better horse on the day.

    The recent spell wouldn’t offer too much confidence, but let’s hope the second day at Punchestown can start to rectify recent losses.

     

    2:30 Punchestown – Final Orders @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Good horses operate in many different conditions and that philosophy fits the profile of Final Orders as he’s picked up victories over fences, hurdles, and on the Flat during the last 15 months.

    The most recent of these occurred at Bellewstown as he won a handicap hurdle off a mark of 102, a full 20lbs below his current hurdles mark, but his current rating of 122 is still 18lbs below his last winning mark over fences.

    Better ground is what he wants and Gavin Cromwell is applying first-time cheekpieces after a good pipe-opener at Cheltenham earlier in the month.

    For these reasons, I’m chancing him at 8/1.

     

    3:05 Punchestown – Answer To Kayf @ 9/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    If he handles the ground, the claims of Answer To Kayf are obvious and his price of 9/4 looks fair.

    The eight-year-old won a qualifier for this series back in February, and trainer Terence O’Brien told irishracing.com that the final “is probably the main aim”.

    During that qualifier, he beat Captain Conby (a Grade 2 winner since) and some of Wednesday’s rivals including Blizzard Of Oz, Backtonormal, and Any Road.

    Furthermore, he ran a cracker in a Grade 2 novice hurdle back in December, a race that produced the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle winner Stellar Story.

    The form of his Martin Pipe fourth looks solid with the likes of Waterford Whispers, Better Days Ahead, and Quai De Bourbon as the latter bolted up at Ayr on Scottish Grand National Day.

    As for the ground, although most of his form is on the slower stuff, the half-sister to You Wear It Well is out of Annie’s Answer who won a Listed hurdle on good to firm, so his pedigree suggests better ground shouldn’t cause any issues.

    All things considered, he is the most likely winner in my eyes.

     

    3:40 Punchestown – No Flies On Him @ 6/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    At one stage this season, I thought No Flies On Him was a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle horse, and while he never made it to the race, I’m sticking to my guns here.

    On debut, he beat a good field of D B Cooper, Ascending, and Kings Hill, boasting a time that was three seconds quicker than the maiden hurdle won by King Of Kingsfield (No Flies On Him was carrying 5lbs fewer) and seven seconds quicker than the Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle that included Kala Conti and, notably, Kargese (No Flies On Him was carrying 12lbs more than Kargese).

    That’s fairly smart considering Kargese subsequently earned a Grade 1 success at the DRF as well as runners-up medals in both the Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle and Grade 1 4-Y-O Hurdle at Aintree.

    Furthermore, from a form angle, he beat Jango Baie, arguably one of the most exciting British staying novice chasers heading into next year, in a point-to-point.

    On his last two starts, the ground was deplorable which made his rapid drift in the market ahead of the Listed Sheila Bourke Novice Hurdle understandable, so a return to better ground will suit.

    This is backed up when looking at his pedigree as he is by Westerner out of Zalda, a mare who won a good to firm Ripon handicap as well as a good ground novice hurdle.

    At 6/1, his price looks good.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – High Class Hero @ 10/1 with Betfair – 0.5pt EW

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    One of my better bets for the whole Cheltenham Festival came in the form of High Class Hero in the Albert Bartlett, and it’s safe to say the experiment was not a fruitful one.

    The seven-year-old ran too freely, and doing that at Cheltenham is a recipe for disaster, which caused Patrick Mullins to pull him up.

    However, because of the run he got, he comes into Punchestown as one of the fresher horses and prior to his Cheltenham disappointment, he did everything rather easily on the track.

    He has victories on ground varying from good to heavy, though with the way he travels through his races at a high cruising speed, one could argue that a sounder surface suits him better.

    A return to a right-handed track will do no harm as well, so I can envisage a big run from the Sulamani gelding.

     

    4:50 Punchestown – You Oughta Know @ 50/1 with Bet365 – 0.5 EW

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    Finally, over in the bumper, I’m taking a swing on You Oughta Know at a wild price of 50/1 for several reasons.

    Firstly, a return to better ground at Punchestown will see him go much better than his 10th in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, though he did put in a credible effort that day.

    Secondly, his form is beginning to stack up. On debut, he smashed Croke Park (a Grade 3 winner) by 11 lengths when giving five pounds away and then he followed up at Galway to beat Toto Too by two lengths while giving 14lbs away.

    Toto Too, despite his poor effort in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown on Tuesday, won his next two races, finished nine lengths behind Lookaway in the Grade 2 Sky Bet Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, and then danced in on the bridle at Naas in April.

    After that, he beat Redemption Day at Leopardstown in the Grade 2 Future Stars Bumper, though he found Jeroboam Machin too good. This race was one of the better Graded bumpers of the season, and the winner looked electric that day before his injury announcement.

    At 50/1, I can’t let him go off unbacked.

  • Punchestown Festival Day 1 | Monty’s a de Bromhead Star

    Punchestown Festival Day 1 | Monty’s a de Bromhead Star

    It’s the final big meeting of the jumps calendar for 2023/24 as the Punchestown Festival kicks off today.

    It’s sure to be a nice watch this week, and hopefully there are some nice bets as well.

    So, let’s begin.

     

    3:05 Punchestown – World Of Dreams @ 9/1 with SkyBet (7 places) – 1pt EW

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    Anthony Honeyball has a great record at Punchestown – as displayed by Kilbeg King’s victory at the meeting last year – and World Of Dreams can look to continue this streak of form.

    The eight-year-old is relatively unexposed for his age due to an 809-day break between his Plumpton success in January 2022 and his Ludlow reappearance in March 2024.

    Admittedly, there is an element of doubt as to his readiness, but he showed his well-being at Ludlow (he travelled well but didn’t find much late on) and one can assume Honeyball isn’t bringing him over for the Punchestown air.

    Before his setback, he was progressive and finished second to Stag Horn, a future Grade 2 winner, when giving seven pounds away at Hereford.

    By Kayf Tara out of a well-related mare (the dam, Rose Of The World, is a half to the Leinster National winner Pairofbrowneyes and is also a half to the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase winner Master Of The Hall), his pedigree is intriguing and could well have more to offer.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – Samui @ 25/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The Listed Killashee Hotel Handicap Hurdle, like a few of the handicaps at Sandown on Saturday, is competitive, but it hasn’t stopped me from finding a bet at the big prices.

    Samui is the horse I’ve landed on as his profile is very interesting off a mark of 127.

    The five-year-old was campaigned in the summer last season which shows he prefers better ground, so as long as the predicted downpour doesn’t affect the course too much, he should handle the conditions.

    On hurdles debut, he gave eight pounds away to Willie Mullins’ Jit Langy, a horse who went on to run in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival behind the likes of Ballyburn, Slade Steel, Absurde, and King Of Kingsfield.

    After that, he won nicely at Tramore and then gave seven pounds away to Mystical Power (Grade 1 winner rated 148) at Galway when beaten by seven lengths, and he ran a nice race despite a jolting error at the second-last that saw him come immediately off the bridle.

    Although one of his five handicap wins resulted in a win, three of them occurred on ground worse than soft and the form of his one success looks smart as the third, Common Practice, won a Listed handicap on his next start and the fourth, Flamborough, has won twice since.

    Flamborough also beat Jigoro in a maiden hurdle who has good form with Mystical Power and Tullyhill (Listed winner rated 149).

    Without a doubt, this is a pick based on the good form he has in the book, and he should come on for the two runs he had in quick succession in March.

    The quicker today’s ground is, the better his chance gets. NAP of the day.

     

    6:00 Punchestown – Monty’s Star @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    At the Cheltenham Festival, I stuck with Monty’s Star for the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase and he did me proud, so there’s no need to go against him here in what looks like an easier race.

    The seven-year-old’s pedigree speaks for itself; he is a Walk In The Park half-brother to Monalee and a full brother to the progressive Firm Footings, so that’s a big positive in my books.

    His run behind Fact To File at Prestbury Park showed plenty of promise, and he found himself on the outside of the pack for much of the contest which is no easy task on the constantly-turning old course of Cheltenham.

    His form of beating Hiddenvalley Lake in a Grade 3 Novice Hurdle last season looks strong and even his third to Corbetts Cross on his first start of the season over an inadequate trip was a mighty effort.

    If he handles the better ground (which is the reason behind a 1pt win and not a 2pt win), then he should be the best horse in here.

  • Four To Follow: Final Fling

    Four To Follow: Final Fling

    It’s the final day of the jumps season and what a season it has been. We’ve seen plenty awesome performances, storylines and shocks and it all ends today. History can be created with Willie Mullins top of the UK trainers championship, whilst Harry Cobden managed to wrap up the jockeys championship yesterday. But we focus on the big races at Sandown for today’s four to follow.

     

    We’re All Playing It

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    2:25 – Oaksey Chase (Grade Two) – Easy Game @ 9/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    This is an incredibly tricky race. The Real Whacker has had a bad season and hasn’t looked himself; Hitman has only won three times in his career and the rest look a little out of depth. Only Easy Game takes the eye for me.

    He loves good ground, and he seems to go better right-handed in Ireland, which will suit him at Sandown. He was disappointing at Sandown, always behind the pace and never responding. With better ground and a better suited track, Easy Game can make a big impression.

     

    Final Celebration

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    3:00 – Celebration Chase (GRADE ONE) – Jonbon @ 2/1 (General)

    You can pick holes in both the favourites, but El Fabiolo wasn’t at his best at all at Cheltenham and his jumping has never been the best either. Jonbon comes in off a win over further at Aintree and defending his title in the final Grade One of the season and the market seems to favour the former. With the course experience, Jonbon should be able to find more, jumping-wise, against El Fabiolo.

     

    Long Time, No See

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    3:35 – bet365 Gold Cup (Premier Handicap Chase) – Le Milos @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    The last time we saw Le Milos over fences was in the 2023 Grand National. The 2022 Coral Gold Cup winner hasn’t seen a fence this season, but it’s not like he was bad at jumping over the bigger obstacles. This seems another master plot job by the Skelton boys for the final big handicap of the season.

    He’s been dropped three pounds over fences, which only puts him three pounds above his Coral Gold Cup winning mark. He won that race on good ground so will love the conditions. And he’s one for one at Sandown after winning a novice hurdle here back in 2019.

    Annual Invictus, along with every horse in the Kim Muir, was struggling when Inothewayurthinkin turned on the taps. He could’ve finished a little higher in the field had it not been for a bad hamper at the fifth last. But with the first horse backing up the form and the second horse, Git Maker, finishing third in the Scottish National, 16/1 (General) doesn’t seem a bad each-way bet.

    Sam Brown, despite being one of the elders of the field, is four pounds well-in the handicap. He ran a cracker of a race at Aintree and hasn’t done much wrong in the latter stage of this season. He remains on the same mark and can run a race at a big price on ground he likes. 22/1 (General).

     

    This Time, You Shall Not Passe

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    Select Hurdle (Grade Two) – Impaire Et Passe @ 5/4 (William Hill)

    Two of the first three of THAT Aintree Hurdle reoppose here. There were arguments galore about who should’ve won the race, but ultimately it went to Impaire Et Passe. This middle-distance trip seems to suit him, and they’re not many of these level weight races around so be sure when he turns up. Langer Dan ran really well last time out, but that might have taken too much out of him.

    The very best of luck!

  • Sandown Jumps Finale Day | Whacker a Real class Act

    Sandown Jumps Finale Day | Whacker a Real class Act

    Well, the British jumps season proper is going into hibernation very soon which means it’s time for the annual Sandown Jumps Finale Day.

    Most years, this card is a cracker, but this season in particular promises to be well-above average thanks to Willie Mullins’ multiple-pronged attack.

    El Fabiolo, Nick Rockett, and Impaire Et Passe certainly add plenty of intrigue, but here are my plays for Sandown’s Saturday card.

     

    1:50 Sandown – Court In The Act @ 11/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The opener – as expected with a novices’ handicap hurdle finale worth £100,000 – is a proper race with 20 runners and nearly 20 different cases, but Court In The Act can take this off a lenient mark of 119.

    A few horses in here, notably Secret Squirrel and Fiercely Proud, have form that ties in with Lump Sum and Jeriko Du Reponet in one way or another but they are weighted accordingly.

    As for Court In The Act, he won a hot maiden hurdle at Kempton on good ground on Boxing Day when beating Onethreefivenotout (second to Lump Sum on undesirable heavy ground at Wincanton in November), Moon Chime, and Sea Invasion (third to Jeriko Du Reponet at Newbury on his previous start).

    Collateral form is a dangerous game to play, but when that much stacks in in one horse’s favour, it’s hard to ignore.

    Furthermore, Moon Chime was third in a hot Listed Cheltenham bumper (won by Brechin Castle) on his previous start, a race that has seen Fire Flyer come out of and beat Secret Squirrel at Taunton.

    Harry Derham is operating at a 32% strike rate currently, so as long as tomorrow morning’s rain doesn’t affect the ground too much, Court In The Act has a great chance to land the opener.

     

    2:25 Sandown – The Real Whacker @ 5/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Ah, The Real Whacker, my old friend.

    Having backed him to win the Gold Cup one too many times than I’d like to admit, he’s back into calmer waters on Saturday in what is a winnable race.

    Although he pulled up in the Grade 1 Cheltenham Gold Cup, he was running well from the front for a while, but the quality of the race mixed with the soft ground saw his effort thwarted coming down the hill.

    Prior to that, he ran a good race in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase, a race in which Ahoy Senor has come out to frank the form. Furthermore, although he pulled up at both Cheltenham and Ayr, finishing ahead of Stay Away Fay is a good marker in my book.

    2m6f on better ground is something that I think will suit him whereas Hitman has had issues on good ground in the past (beaten by Zanza in last year’s Grade 2 Denman Chase) and there’s a possibility that The Real Whacker could get a freebie from the front.

     

    3:00 Sandown – Jonbon @ 2/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    El Fabiolo against Jonbon is a clash to savour, especially due to the fact it’s at a track away from Cheltenham, but there’s a lot going for the latter in order to make me back him.

    His course record is golden having won on all three of his starts, and his form is top class.

    He beat subsequent Champion Chase winner Captain Guinness in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase last year and it’s hard to ignore his duo of successes over Edwardstone who then bolted up in the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury in February.

    It’s feasible to think that Jonbon can force a mistake or two from El Fabiolo, and when you look deeply into El Fabiolo’s form, beating Fil Dor by nearly five lengths in the Grade 2 Hilly Way Chase can be questioned.

    So, it’s bold, but Jonbon is the side of the fence that I am on.

     

    3:35 Sandown – Le Milos @ 10/1 with SkyBet & Weveallbeencaught @ 14/1 with SkyBet – 0.5pts EW

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    As stated on the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel earlier this week, two make the most appeal in the Bet365 Gold Cup.

    The first is Le Milos who has been trained for this race by Dan Skelton, one of the sharpest operators when it comes to these big handicaps this season.

    He won the Coral Gold Cup on good ground off a mark of 146 in 2022 and he is just three pounds higher than that winning mark.

    Furthermore, the runner-up, Remastered, bolted up at Kempton on his next start while Corach Rambler and Annsam went on to better things, one more so than the other.

    As for Weveallbeencaught, his best form comes on better ground having finished third to Flooring Porter and stablemate Broadway Boy, two horses who need no introduction when it comes to their class, at Cheltenham in October.

    As a novice hurdler, he finished third to Hermes Allen in a Grade 2 novice hurdle on his first start over obstacles on good ground, so a mark of 132 could look silly by the end of Saturday.

     

    5:20 Sandown – Mahons Glory @ 14/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Patrick Neville has two horses running at Sandown on Saturday and I fancy both to hit the frame, though Mahons Glory is the biggest-priced contender of the pair.

    Like the opener, the last race is a corker, but the profile of Neville’s eight-year-old appeals to me despite his mark of 136 which wouldn’t make him the best-handicapped horse in the race.

    The Fame And Glory gelding had a plan earlier this season of running in a Graded race on his first start for a long time and then winning a handicap, as shown by his win at Kempton on Boxing Day.

    After 107 days away from the track, he bucked out like a rocket in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle two weeks ago and faded badly, much like he did in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle in December.

    However, after his Kempton handicap success, Neville explained that “the last day just knocked some of the gas out of him”, so one can hope Aintree has done the same.

    If this is the case, I don’t think a mark of 136 has got to the bottom of his potential, and you don’t have to go too far back to see his Aintree maiden hurdle victory over the likes of Heezer Geezer (who was subsequently second to Stay Away Fay off level weights), Mexico, Ginny’s Destiny, and Young Buster.

  • Celebration Chase promises epic Sandown Jumps finale

    Celebration Chase promises epic Sandown Jumps finale

    Sandown is poised for an epic season climax as Jumps finale takes place on Saturday.

    With the Punchestown Festival to come in mere days, first, the weekend brings together the best at home and across the Irish Sea.

    Kitty’s Light looks to defend the crown in the bet365 Gold Cup, but beforehand, the Celebration Chase is set to send pulses racing.

    With El Fabiolo and Jonbon on show, who will tee up a potential double in the coming days?

     

    Fitting finale

    The culmination of National Hunt season has, perhaps, left the best for last.

    With Cheltenham and Aintree now in the books, Punchestown and Sandown are left to grab the limelight.

    Next Tuesday’s William Hill Champion Chase is being billed as what could be one of the all-time great Grade 1 clashes.

    Certainly on paper, it is hard to argue that point.

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    So much so, that many entries have opted to swerve this race, including Queen Mother Champion Chase victor, Captain Guinness.

    However, the field is no less stellar this weekend in Surrey, with one of jump racing’s biggest rivalries renewed.

     

    Hors d’oeuvre

    For El Fabiolo and Jonbon, having waited a entire calendar year to face off again, the duo are set to lock horns twice more in just four days.

    Both will be looking to remedy their previous meeting at Cheltenham.

    In the case of El Fabiolo, Willie Mullins’ 7yo tasted defeat for the first time since the 2022 Topham Novices’ Chase at Aintree.

    HIs conqueror on that day, Jonbon was a victim of the malaise that plagued Nicky Henderson’s yard at Cheltenham.

    Yet, after victory in the Melling Chase, Jonbon is buoyed.

    Ahead of race day however, El Fabiolo is a strong 8/11 favourite with BetVictor.

     

    Edwardstone, Editeur outsiders

    Away from the top two in the market, the hopes of the other five runners cannot be overlooked.

    Particularly, the rather fallen figure – quite literally – of Edwardstone.

    Despite tumbling late on in the Champion Chase, the 10yo had one of his best spins for a while and but for his fall may have pushed on.

    Having won on heavy ground at Newbury in February, Alan King’s gelding has travelled best on soft or good to soft ground.

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    After a chilly but largely dry week, the rain is expected to arrive on Saturday morning.

    That could be music to Edwardstone’s ears.

    Indeed, statistically, if we examine his five-race winning streak during the 2021-22 season, the going was either soft or GS.

    The form is not there, but Edwardstone may yet be in the mood for a lively season swansong.

    Meanwhile, Editeur Du Gite has struggled with the weights this season.

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    However, a fourth-placed finisher in this contest last year, the Preston Family-owned runner will be keen for rain to stay away.

    The other three runners are Elixir Du Nutz, Boothill and Nube Negra.

    The latter and former represent big price plays, with Elixir Du Nutz a sensational victor of the Clarence House Chase in January, proving too strong for Jonbon.

    Could history repeat at Sandown? A 22/1 shot that day, his price is more than double at 50/1 with William Hill.

    Finally, Nube Negra has gone winless in over 18 months, but is once again amongst familiar faces this weekend.

    As the battle for trainers’ title comes to a head, against rival Mullins, could Dan Skelton’s gelding figure?

     

    The bet365 Celebration Chase takes place during Jumps finale Day at Sandown this Saturday, race time 15:00 BST.

  • Scottish Grand National 2024 | Three Willie Mullins considerations for Ayr

    Scottish Grand National 2024 | Three Willie Mullins considerations for Ayr

    After last weekend’s Randox Grand National at Aintree, Saturday sees Ayr take the baton for the Coral Scottish Grand National and Willie Mullins could again be in the frame.

    Won last year by Kitty’s Light – a fifth-placed finisher in Liverpool – the Ayrshire showpiece is becoming a bigger pointer of future stayers than ever.

    For Mullins, the king of Closutton can cap another sensational term on UK soil after Paul Townend’s stunning win on I Am Maximus.

    Having sealed a second Grand National win, Mullins can make it a double swoop away from home.

    But with a total of six entries, which three look the best punt?

     

    Spanish turn – (17/2 w/Betfred)

    At the top of the markets, both Spanish Harlem and Macdermott are pushing newly-installed favourite Git Maker as SP fancy, but it is the former who looks the more appealing.

    After finally ending his long wait to ride a Grand National winner, Paul Townend looks to tick one of the few remaining boxes off on his card, the Scottish equivalent.

    On a rare visit to Ayr, Spanish Harlem is getting some real punter interest in the final hours before the race.

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    On of the youngest entries, the 6yo made his debut only 10 months ago but his record is more than decent.

    However, this will be the sternest test to date of a fledging race career.

    Having won as a debutant in native France, Spanish Harlem has gone seven without a win, but has been at worst third in all but one of those contests – his only non finish was being pulled up in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham last year.

    With a run of 3-3-3 this season, this will be a sizeable step-up in trip, but the whispers around the Mullins camp say he can make the jump.

    We are inclined to agree.

     

    A ‘Credible take? (11/1 w/Unibet)

    Meanwhile, despite two failed attempts in marquee outings this year, Mr Incredible remains a draw.

    Finishing runner-up to Beauport in the Midlands National, the 8yo has no concerns over distance, which may apply to a number of runners here.

    Mr Incredible was unfortunate to unseat Brian Hayes last weekend, having recovered from a faltering start.

    Furthermore, on ground which looks similar to the going at Cheltenham from his third place in the Kim Muir, Mr Incredible can make a mark.

    Now more than used to the trip, over fewer and less challenging fences, Paddy Mullins can take his mount one step further than last month.

     

    Wan to watch (33/1 w/BetUK)

    Further down the weights, Mullins could have a handy hoper in We’llhavewan.

    Though more of a heavy ground performer, the 9yo gelding has won two of his last five.

    Sire of former Prix De Paris winner, Imperial Monarch, the draw of We’llhavewan is not just his name, but his versatility – on paper at least.

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    Wins have come not only in the mire, but also on yielding/soft turf and took home victory on good ground at Ballinrobe last May.

    Not only that, the gelding also ticks a bit of a box with his last four trips over 3m+, last time out over 3m5f in the Irish National at Fairyhouse.

    Grabbing a final sixth place there, We’llhavewan might just put on a better show in Ayr.

     

    The 2024 Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr on Saturday, race time 15:35 BST.

  • Four To Follow: Do Us Ayr Favour

    Four To Follow: Do Us Ayr Favour

    Three Nationals on the bounce, from Ireland to Aintree and now Ayr. It’s all gearing up to be a fantastic seven days in the trainers’ championship, with Willie Mullins going all out to win the title after success in Liverpool. But now we’re in the seasonal period where the jumps criss-crosses with the flat, so we’re treated to two cracking cards today. Let’s see who makes the cut.

     

    Ayr

    Fortune In Our Favour

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    2:25 – Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade Two) – Favour And Fortune @ 11/2 (Boylesports)

    Favour And Fortune was last seen finishing sixth in the Supreme at Cheltenham, a race which was been boosted heavily thanks to a one-two from Mystical Power and Firefox at Aintree. Favour And Fortune also finished second in a Grade One at Aintree back on Boxing Day. However, he’ll like the ground and is weighted fairly, alongside the Pertemps winner L’Eau Du Sud. He’s got something’s in his favour in a hot contest.

    With it being a limited handicap, some at a bigger price may make appeal. Afadil is one. A consistent performer for Paul Nicholls, he easily won the Scottish County Hurdle in February. The he finished fifth in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and was third last week at Aintree. He remains on the same mark and as a result, comes to Ayr in the lower order of the weights. Nice each-way play, 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

    Petit Tonnerre has been going chasing this season but didn’t work out for him and was hastily put over hurdles in the County, finishing one from the rear. For that performance, he’s been dropped four pounds, three pounds below his last winning hurdles mark. He was placed at this level last season and has every right to turn around a sharp drop. 20/1 (Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK).

     

    Git Making Us Rich

    3:35 – Scottish Grand National (Premier Handicap) – Git Maker @ 7/1 (General)

    Jamie Snowden has been actively prepping Git Maker for Ayr’s premier race. A stayer of some quality, he completed a hattrick of wins at the start of the season. He bounced back to form at the Festival when eight lengths behind Inothewayurthinkin, who impressed at Aintree, boosting the form. He also is unbeaten in Spring, with just two start in April and May, so will go well at this time year.

    My Silver Lining has been nothing short of impressive this season, never dropping outside the top three finish. Since his win at Warwick, he’s produced two gutsy performances on testing ground in the Grand National Trial at Haydock and in the Midlands Grand National. The Midlands National is often a precursor to this race and has only been raised two pounds. Ultra consistent, he shouldn’t be too far away from the frame. Each-way at 18/1 (William Hill).

    Ontheropes makes a little appeal for me. He hasn’t had a great time coming back from a long break, pulling up twice and finishing midfield last time out. However, he has dropped to a mark of 141 which was his last winning mark back in the 2021 Munster National. A lot has happened since then, but he is a proven stayer with a fourth in the 2021 Ladbrokes Trophy (now Coral Gold Cup) to back it up. Ayr could be the track where we see him at his best. He might not look to have a chance, but never write off any Mullins horse. Long-shot at 50/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Call Up The Army

    2:40 – Greenham Stakes (Group Two) – Army Ethos @ 15/2 (BetVictor)

    Despite being bred by sprinters; Army Ethos did look as though he could go a bit further when finishing second in the Coventry at Ascot. Trainer Archie Watson had big hopes, with the Prix Morny or Prix Robert-Papin in his sights. Sadly, we didn’t see him again until he finished a little weaker than most though up at Newcastle. But the Coventry form is looking brilliant now, with Haatem winning the Craven, who Army Ethos beat. Everything points to improvement with this horse.

     

    A Winning Ticket

    Spring Cup Handicap – Thunder Ball @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    A trend with Thunder Ball is that he seems to go well after his first run after a break. And that’s what today is. After a decent enough finish in the Lincoln, he looks to go a bit better on good-to-soft ground, which he likes. He stays at his mark of 101, with Alec Voikhansky taking off five pounds. He improved a lot last season and will make a nice handicapper throughout this season.

    Racingbreaks Ryder is another who goes well in the Spring with his only win of the season last year coming in May. He then never impressed in any other handicaps, but is now down to a likeable mark. He’s only one above last year’s winning mark, which makes him appealing at 18/1 (BetUK).

    Alpha Crucis is another that goes well at the start of the season. A winner at Windsor last April saw her book end it with a win at Goodwood in October. She had a good run in the Lincoln, finishing fourth which the handicapper has dropped her a pound for. He comes into this race at the very bottom of the weights, further enhanced with Anna Gibson taking a further seven pounds off. Every right to run well at 22/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Scottish Grand National Day | Time to Rally

    Scottish Grand National Day | Time to Rally

    Aintree is now firmly in the rearview mirror, and as the 2023/24 National Hunt Season comes to a close, it’s time to take a look at the races on Scottish Grand National Day.

    Last week’s Aintree Grand National meeting was successful for the column as we achieved 11.95pts of profit, helping to bring the overall tally since the start of March to 3.35pts of profit.

    No doubt, the last few months haven’t reeled in a mountain of success, but let’s hope this run of form can continue.

     

    1:15 Ayr – Persian Time @ 6/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Sans Bruit did the job for us at Aintree and for that, we can only offer our thanks, but a 10lb hike for the success is steep as he beat horses who were towards the top of their handicap mark after getting an easy lead from the front.

    He demands respect, but Persian Time is a horse who might have a few pounds over the handicapper.

    The six-year-old has shown his class this season as he’s won twice and finished second once, though that defeat came at the hands of Djelo at Newbury on his first run of the season, and Djelo has since improved 12lbs and won a Grade 2.

    Although he benefitted from an Authorised Speed fall at Ascot, Homme Public (the runner-up) won a valuable race on his next start to frank the form

    Furthermore, both Djelo and Soul Icon – the horse he beat on his latest start at Kempton when the Nicky Henderson yard was massively out of form – have good form with Master Chewy, a horse who came a head away from beating Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree.

    That bodes well for Persian Time, and with his form at the track from last season’s second in a handicap hurdle, he is a nice unexposed type running off 136.

     

    1:50 Ayr – Deeper Blue @ 7/1 with William Hill & Maclaine @ 9/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW for both

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    The £50,000 CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase has an interesting feel about it this year as the favourite is as big as 13/2.

    However, I’m splitting my stakes here as I want both Deeper Blue and Maclaine on my side.

    Starting with the former, he represents the on-fire Harry Fry yard (40% strike rate over the last two weeks) and sports first-time cheekpieces, something Fry has a good record with.

    The eight-year-old has tended to race a bit behind the bridle this season – so the cheekpieces make sense – but his second to Henry’s Friend when receiving just 1lb looks like good form as the winner won the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase on his next start.

    Furthermore, Rock My Way was five lengths behind in third and he ran into Makin’yourmindup on his next start; Makin’yourmindup won after that and then ran into a well-handicapped Cap Du Nord.

    Deeper Blue was beaten by a well-handicapped Neon Moon on his last start, but he sprinted well clear of the third and he looks ready to put in another big effort here.

    However, a horse that carries eight pounds less is Maclaine, looking to back up from last month’s facile Newbury success.

    The improving seven-year-old prefers better ground, but he comes from a family of soft ground lovers, so the described soft ground at Ayr (plus a day of dry weather) should be okay.

    The manner of his victory at Newbury was impressive – one of a progressive horse – and he ran into Prairie Wolf at Doncaster in December.

    Prairie Wolf has since finished fourth to Ginny’s Destiny at Cheltenham and then won twice more, so the form of that race is solid.

     

    2:05 Newbury – Relief Rally @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    The big question with Relief Rally in the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes is whether will she stay seven furlongs, and that’s why her price is probably bigger than it should be.

    She was a small two-year-old and showed plenty of speed, but a lot went wrong for her at York on her first start at six furlongs and she had to battle late on to get up by a length.

    That showed promise of staying further to my eye, and you don’t have to go that far back through her pedigree to find horses who won over 1m1f and even went two-mile hurdling.

    I think this filly by Kodiac is riddled with ability, and although there is doubt over whether she has trained-on to become a proper three-year-old, this is a beatable field on all known pieces of form.

     

    4:10 Ayr – Masaccio @ 10/3 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Regular watchers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel will know my confidence behind Masaccio for the 2m4f handicap hurdle at Aintree. Still, as it turns out, it was probably a good idea to skip Aintree.

    Connections have swerved Aintree to come to Ayr instead, and they are happy to step him up in trip to three miles.

    After his Kempton success, with a wry smile, Alan King suggested during his post-race Racing TV interview that the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle over three miles was under consideration, but with an unchanged mark of 129 after that easy Kempton success, they’ve found a suitable handicap option with him on a potentially better surface than that of Aintree or Kempton.

    Welcom To Cartries is a highly-touted horse for Paul Nicholls, but his rating of 130 is one-pound higher than Masaccio’s.

    On all-known form, notably when finishing a close second to Jinko Blue (now rated 140) while giving 6lbs away at Newbury, Masaccio should have a higher rating than Welcom To Cartries, but he doesn’t.

    On that evidence, he looks like a solid bet at 7/2.

  • Jeremy Clarkson set for first racing foray with Ben Pauling

    Jeremy Clarkson set for first racing foray with Ben Pauling

    Former Top Gear and current Grand Tour presenter Jeremy Clarkson is set for his opening furlong into racing this year.

    The 64-year-old star of Amazon hit Clarkson’s Farm, is primed to head up a Cotswold-based syndicate with All Gold Racing.

    And after building a farm shop and restaurant, could his next project be a stable?

    Clarkson will team with trainer Ben Pauling – a Cotswold native himself – with a horse named after his own beer brand.

    The Hawkstonian, takes his moniker after the TV star’s own label, Hawkstone.

    An eye-catching grey, the 4yo was purchased for €45,000 at Goffs Arkle sale last year.

     

    ‘Horse racing and motor racing confused’

    A man more known for speed in cars and more recently his green fingers, perhaps his move into racing is not so unlikely.

    Having made the trials and tribulations of farming must-see viewing, stepping into the world of horse racing could be seamless.

    “I said to the Hawkstone team that we should get into racing but clearly they got motor racing and horseracing confused!” Clarkson said.

    “That said, Ben Pauling is a stone’s throw from Diddly Squat Farm and the Hawkstone Brewery, so I know where my hay is going.

    “Furthermore, the Pauling family originally farmed our land and taught Kaleb [Cooper, who appears on Clarkson’s Farm] all he knows about farming.”

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    The Hawkstonian will initially be on sale to members of the Hawkstone’s club on April 22.

    Old Gold Racing’s waiting list opens the following day, before the public sale of shares takes place on April 25.

    Ed Seyfried, chief executive of Old Gold Racing, said: “We’re honoured to be powering the inaugural Hawkstone Racing syndicate.

    “Jeremy has helped transform views of agriculture with his hit television show and we are looking forward to welcoming him on the racing scene this coming season.”

    Clarkson joins his co-host Richard Hammond in part-owning a horse, with Kim Bailey-trained Subway Surf alongside presenter Carol Vorderman.