Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Aintree Grand National Day | Major day for Roi

    Aintree Grand National Day | Major day for Roi

    The Aintree Grand National is upon us after two days of exhilarating, today really is a special day.

    The supporting card around the big one is brilliant as well, and after two good days for the selections, today’s task is to not give it all back.

    So, let’s begin.

     

    1:20 Aintree – Johnnywho @ 10/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Dan Skelton’s horses in handicaps at the moment would scare the life out of anyone, so you can understand why West Balboa is well-found in the market.

    However, her season differs from the one that yesterday’s handicap hurdle winner Katiera had as she won on debut and is now five pounds higher than her success in this race last season.

    Furthermore, you could question the form of last year’s race, so with these questions in my mind about her, I’m willing to take a swing at Johnnywho.

    The seven-year-old was a ‘horse to follow’ at the start of the season, and back then I thought he was a shoe-in to land a Graded novice hurdle this season, though that hasn’t occurred.

    However, reading into his form further, the staying-on fourth in the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle is a nice race to look at as the third, The Jukebox Man, finished a close second in the Albert Bartlett and the second, Lookaway, wasn’t disgraced in Friday’s Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle.

    The speedy nature of the race was his downfall in the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials Day, and if you forgive him for the Albert Bartlett, a mark of 136 looks lenient.

    Also, even a look at his Carlisle maiden hurdle makes for interesting reading as Moon D’Orange is rated 130 though was giving four pounds away on the day.

     

    2:30 Aintree – Kilbeg King @ 7/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Anthony Honeyball is probably thanking Aintree’s fast-draining surface this morning as the ground has come right for Kilbeg King in the valuable handicap chase at 2:30.

    I gave the nine-year-old a good chance in the National Hunt Chase, but a combination of Cheltenham, heavy ground, and 3m6f was a bit too much on the day.

    Therefore, this return to a slightly better surface and back in trip should put him in a nice position, though he does have form on soft ground having won his point-to-point and maiden hurdle on soft.

    Reading Honeyball’s comments throughout the week, he has talked about this racing being the plan, but he also said that he could also be a novice and a veteran for next season if he doesn’t get the job done.

    With form in the book with Hermes Allen and Il Est Francais, as well as that great run in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase, I see no reason why he can’t win today and every minute of drying ground will suit him.

     

    3:05 Aintree – Hiddenvalley Lake @ 5/1 with William Hill (1pt Win) & Buddy One @ 14/1 with William Hill (1pt EW)

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    The price has collapsed on Hiddenvalley Lake since I put him up on the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel on Wednesday, so I’ve elected for a win-only play on him.

    As a novice hurdler, he looked like a machine to win a Grade 3 at Cork in December 2022. The form of the race has worked out well as Monbeg Park beat Spillane’s Tower, a subsequent Grade 1 novice chaser, at the Punchestown Festival and Letsbeclearaboutit won a Grade 3 novice chase before his third in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase.

    Arguably his best piece of form is when he gave six pounds away to Monty’s Star and nearly beat him in the Grade 3 Surehaul Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle, and he bounced back to form to win off a two-month lay-off at Navan on his latest start.

    He’s likely to come on for that effort and should go close.

    As for Buddy One, his run in the Stayers’ Hurdle was admiral on soft going and he has won soft three times before, though this morning’s update about slightly better ground will benefit his chances.

    That run in the Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle was easy on the eye, and it was his first run for nearly three months. Although Paul Gilligan would have primed him for the minute to peak on that day, that break between races may help him remain fresh and well for today’s assignment.

    The seven-year-old is a truly exciting novice chaser for next season, but his Aintree record (second in the 2m4f handicap hurdle behind Fennor Cross last season) gives him every right to end this season on a bang.

     

    4:00 Aintree (Grand National) – Meetingofthewaters @ 12/1 with William Hill (1pt EW), Panda Boy @ 12/1 with William Hill (1pt EW) & Roi Mage @ 50/1 with William Hill (0.5pt EW)

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    It’s time for the Grand National and I’m splitting my stakes between three horses: Meetingofthewaters, Panda Boy, and Roi Mage.

    Starting with the latter, he is a dude of a horse. That isn’t enough to back him for a National, but there are reasons to think he can build on last year’s seventh.

    Firstly, he had an interrupted season last year as he cut himself badly after a fall at Cheltenham on Trials Day, so Patrick and James Griffin were working to get his fitness on point for the big day.

    Fast-forward 12 months and the 12-year-old has had a perfect preparation, starting with a Listed chase win in France on heavy ground and, most recently, culminating in a good second to Adamantly Chosen at Down Royal.

    He’s two pounds lower than last year and the softer conditions will massively play to his strengths.

    As for Meetingofthewaters, he was my long-range bet for the race at 25/1 in late February, but his chance has only enhanced since.

    He is a progressive seven-year-old who ran well behind Chianti Classico in the Ultima on his last start, form that looks smart now after Chianti Classico’s valiant fourth in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase.

    Finally, Panda Boy is a horse that has always promised a win a big handicap chase and the planning of Martin Brassil to get him in at the bottom end of the weights is a master stroke.

    He is clearly on a workable mark and his run over hurdles at the Dublin Racing Festival was very promising.

    He gets a nice swing in the weights from Meetingofthewaters based on the Paddy Power Chase on December 27th, and he looks a likely type to enjoy this trip.

     

    5:00 Aintree – Master Chewy @ 15/2 with William Hill (1pt EW) & Quilixios @ 12/1 with William Hill (1pt EW)

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    The money has come for Master Chewy overnight, and you can see the reasons for the support.

    Connections have always rated this horse highly as they sent him off 4/6 to win a handicap chase at Newbury in December, though Elixir De Nutz, a subsequent Grade 1 Clarence House Chase winner, beat him after a good duel between the pair.

    He was also sent off 13/8 to beat Nickle Back, a subsequent Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase winner, and beat him by nearly five lengths.

    Based on these two horses, his form is staking up, and he has good course and distance form around Aintree, so he should have a solid chance.

    As for Quilixios, his career to date has had a few setbacks, but he’s been in good form this season and I’m willing to forgive him for the Arkle disappointment.

    He started this season with a success over Cool Survivor where he nearly took the last fence with him, though the resilience he showed to still win was admiral.

    After a poor effort over three miles, he stepped back to two miles and beat Sa Fureur (fourth in the Grand Annual subsequently) and Mister Policeman (a Grade 3 winner two starts later).

    He seems like a quirky character, but he has plenty of speed and he was second to Teahupoo as a four-year-old over hurdles, so 12/1 looks like a big price for him.

  • Grand National 2024: My First Five Home

    Grand National 2024: My First Five Home

    All this week has been building up for this moment. 34 horses, 30 fences, 10 minutes. The wildest, most exhilarating, most watched race in the world is back. The Grand National. Everyone will have their own picks, from the colour of the silks, to one with a good name, it’s a lottery. Here are my five picks for the National that I think will come home the strongest.

     

    Main Pick: I Am Maximus – 7/1

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    This is a horse that has very strong claims to win the race. And I’m fully taken with him. He’s an out and out stayer, proved with his win in the Irish National last year. He loves the heavy ground, proved with his emphatic win in the Bobbyjo Chase (Often used as a leg up for either Irish or Grand National). He has Grade One form, finishing in front of Paddy Rewards Club Chase winner next time out, Found A Fifty back in the Drinmore. Fianally, he finished behind Capodanno and Galopin Des Champs at Christmas, who both went on to win next time out. Yes, a horse has never won the National carrying 11st 6lbs, but records are here to be broken. Out of the front runners, I can’t look past I Am Maximus.

     

    Each-way choice: Mahler Mission – 14/1

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    Once again, this horse has been targeted at this race. Way back at the start of December after his brilliant run in the Coral Gold Cup. The one thing that Mahler Mission likes to do is run well fresh, 32232. It’s missing some 1’s, but he’s never far from hitting the frame. He faced a tough opponent in Datsalrightgino last time out, but was six-and-a-half lengths clear of Monbeg Genius in third. His National Hunt Chase run at 2023 Festival showed how well he can stay, barring his fall at the second-last. The eventual winner Gaillard Du Mesnil finished a gallant third and could end up repeating the feat, if not go better.

     

    Mud-lover: Galia Des Liteaux – 28/1

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    Barring her last run, Galia Des Liteaux has had a great season. Her second in the Classic Chase was fantastic, when she was clear by 12 lengths to eventual third Guetapan Collonges. The winner My Silver Lining has finished second and third since, respectively. Plus Beauport, who was pulled up that day, went and won the Midlands National backed the form up slightly. She’s a lover for heavy ground, with two out of three wins on the surface. She has to defy history if to win the National. The last mare to do it was Nickel Coin back in 1951.

     

    Surprise Package: Roi Mage – 50/1

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    Despite such a big price this year, Roi Mage ran well in last year’s renewal, finishing a respectable seventh. He then went and won the big Cross-Country race at Compiegne, guided round by today’s jockey James Reveley. Reveley has already had a big winner in the UK this year, when the Englishman riding in France won with Il Est Francais at Kempton on Boxing Day. Having rode, and won, Roi Mage, this being his sole ride of the day and being brought out from France, there’s a feeling that Reveley might know something about Roi Mage that we don’t.

     

    A Grand National Outsider: Farouk D’Alene – 100/1

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    Farouk D’Alene was one of the best novices coming into the 2022 Brown Advisory. And he could have won it, had it not been for a fall at the second last. He then wasn’t seen for about 18 months until he reappeared in the Troytown last November, when falling at the first. Then he had one last go over fences at Thurles when finishing fifth, but finishing in front of Capodanno. He was close to winning a Pertemps qualifier over Christmas, but pulled up at Cheltenham. His handicap mark over fences is 153, but he’ll need to improve his jumping over the bigger obstacles for this marathon trip.

     

    Whoever you are on this Grand National the very best of luck!

    Why not check out my selections for the other races on Day Three! Click the link here

    All prices are with William Hill – Official Betting Partner of the Grand National.

  • Grand National Festival 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Grand National Festival 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Only four winners yielded from the last two days of the Festival, but with one more day to go I feel as though we can find a winner or two with plenty of value to end on a high. Plus, the nation stops at 4:00 for the big one. The Grand National, for which I’ve written dedicated tips just for the race, check it out by clicking here. This article is for the rest of the action.

     

    NAP: Maghull Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Found A Fifty @ 15/8 (General)

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    Found A Fifty has found it tough since Christmas. A narrow defeat to Il Etait Temps, who won on Thursday, and well beaten by Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle. His second was dominant, beating Il Etait Temps by four and three quarters of a length. Without Gaelic Warrior, he’s the one to beat and Aintree may be a course that suits him slightly better.

    Djelo made it a British 1-2-3 in the Turners’ at Cheltenham, getting the better of Zanhiyr up the run-in. He was eight lengths down to the winning pair, which makes the drop back to two miles make sense. Venetia Williams isn’t in the best of form, but Djelo is never far from hitting the frame. Each-way claims at 14/1 (William Hill).

     

    E/W Bet: Liverpool Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Strong Leader @ 7/1 (General)

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    It was worth a second look, but I forgot that Strong Leader ran a good race in the Cleeve Hurdle. The form isn’t strong, but Strong Leader looked as though he had a future ahead of him. He finished second in the Top Novices’ Hurdle last year splitting Inthepocket and Lucccia and clearly has a liking for Aintree. He won as a novice last season here, then finished second in a Grade One. Horses for courses as they say.

     

    Handicap Best: William Hill Handicap Chase (Premier) – The King Of Ryhope @ 4/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

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    The King Of Ryhope has been in my tracker all season and something says he’s been building up to a handicap like this. He missed Cheltenham and on the evidence of his Ascot run, he’ll get the trip. Had he not hit the last, he could have finished a lot closer than three lengths. He looks well-handicapped as a Dan Skelton horse should when in races like these. If he stays the trip, he could feature in a future National?

    Falco Blitz also took the eye for the Irish. His last two runs have been won by a combined 13 and a half lengths, in handicaps. He’s been raised 11lbs for this major test, but he’s no stranger to the big stage after being with Nicky Henderson until 2022. He’s well worth a watch, and the ground won’t be a problem. 18/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Selections:

    13:20 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – Johnnywho @ 8/1 (General), Lord Snootie e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports), Johnson’s Blue e/w @ 28/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    13:55 – Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Brighterdaysahead @ 5/4 (Boylesports)

    14:30 – William Hill Handicap Chase (Premier) – THE KING OF RYHOPE (HB) @ 4/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports), Falco Blitz e/w @ 18/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    15:05 – Liverpool Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Flooring Porter @ 7/2 (General), STRONG LEADER E/W @ 7/1 (General)

    16:00 – THE GRAND NATIONAL

    17:00 – Maghull Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – FOUND A FIFTY (NAP) @ 15/8 (General), Djelo e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    17:35 – Weatherbys Standard NHF (Grade Two) – Ma Shantou @ 15/2 (William Hill), Good And Clever e/w @ 11/1 (William Hill, BetUK), Horaces Pearl e/w @ 16/1 (General)

     

    The very best of luck!

  • Grand National 2024 | Kitty’s Light can write 14/1 Aintree fairytale

    Grand National 2024 | Kitty’s Light can write 14/1 Aintree fairytale

    So here we go again. Grand National week, which for Kitty’s Light could be memorable.

    With the final 34 runners in place, the market is now set for Saturday’s off.

    Not least, the role of Corach Rambler as favourite to defend his Aintree crown, at time of writing short but having sightly drifted at 6/1 with Betfred.

    But this is the most famous steeplechase in the world, often delivering trips of majesty and on many occasions the run of a lifetime.

    With that in mind, if the SP of Lucinda Russell’s 10yo does not appeal, here at BestofBets, let us throw a few considerations your way.

     

    Kitty can deliver fairytale

    A name who has been a steady mover in the markets, Kitty’s Light can deliver magic for trainer Christian Williams.

    With his daughter Betsy winning her battle with leukaemia, the 8yo of R J Bedford and All Star Sports Racing brought much-needed cheer last spring.

    A back-to-back winner in the Scottish Grand National and bet365 Gold Cup, Kitty’s Light was the toast of the Williams family and the paddock.

    So could Kitty’s Light make his presence felt in the big one?

    The only spanner in the works could be the forecast, which looks increasingly likely to bring heavier than soft ground.

    Having been seventh in the Ultima on similar turf, the gelding has no other heavy ground experience, which could prompt a change of tack and indeed, tactics.

    However, if he does run – and indications are that he will – Kitty’s Light could ensure there is not a dry eye in Liverpool on Saturday afternoon at 14/1 with William Hill, but threatening to shorten.

     

    Ground may favour Nassalam

    On the subject of the going, though with the fewest number of entries in National history, the ground could yet provide one of the sternest tests.

    That may bring Nassalam into the picture.

    Like Kitty’s Light, Gary Moore’s 7yo is already a National winner, victorious at Chepstow in the Welsh National back in December.

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    A trip just short of 3m7f, Aintree brings a further 5f, but on heavier ground the gelding has won the last two.

    Beating Iron Bridge by an astonishing 34 lengths in South Wales, this is though, a very different and steeper task.

    Still, a 20/1 shot with 888sport should be in good hands with Caoilin Quinn.

     

    Delta still Works

    A third consideration hovering around the 20s mark, Delta Work still has more than a dash of appeal.

    A faller last year, Gordon Elliott’s veteran was in contention for places before his fumble at Fence 21.

    However, this time around, the ground looks set to be a good deal softer, which should aid the gelding’s chances.

    Robbed of the chance to win the Cross Country at Cheltenham for the third time on the spin, Delta Work is winless since his trip to Gloucestershire in 2023.

    Yet, now the same age as Noble Yeats was two years ago – finishing third behind the then 11yo in 2022 – Delta Work has the heart for a fight.

    If the turf stays heavy, and if Delta jumps well, Elliott, looking to make history with a fourth National winner, could be in business at 20/1 with Betfred.

     

    The 2024 Randox Grand National takes place on Saturday at 16:00 BST.

  • Grand National 2024 | The facts behind race numbers

    Grand National 2024 | The facts behind race numbers

    The Grand National. The most famous chase in the world and still the most valuable jumps contest in Europe.

    Now in its 185th year from its 1839 inception, the cream of National Hunt assembles at Aintree once more this weekend.

    A race as much part of British culture as it is global, this year’s edition features just 34 runners.

    So, with a tightened field ahead of Saturday, here at BestofBets we’ve teamed with the Guardian’s Tony Paley, to delve into the numbers and look for a numbers pattern to success.

     

    The personal punt

    When it comes to the Grand National, even the rarest of punters can be drawn to have a casual flutter.

    As far as finding a winner goes on the big day, bettors often rely on a blend of knowledge and superstition.

    Whilst studying the form like on any other occasion can be essential, a steeplechase over 4m2f can often throw up the most unlikely of winners.

    Many often turn to personal charms or omens, perhaps persuaded by the allure of a jockey’s colours, the presence of a grey horse, or a name that strikes a chord.

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    However, it is individual numbers that can carry their own weight in this tapestry of choice.

    These numbers, can often dictate the decisions at the tote or counter, from choosing lottery numbers to placing bets on a particular runner.

    This study, by Lottomart, analysed the latest data from recent Grand National races to determine which numbers have seen the most success down the years.

     

    Successful numbers

    When scrutinising the outcomes of the Grand National over recent decades, it has become apparent that certain numbers have surfaced more frequently in the winner’s enclosure.

    Over the span of the last 22 years, a total of 17 distinct numbers have achieved victory, highlighting a diversity in winning digits.

    |However, closer evaluation reveals that in the last 22 years, entry numbers 10, 13, 29, and 35 have emerged victorious on multiple occasions.

    Notably, 29 and 35 have been particularly favourable, featuring twice each amongst the winners within the previous decade.

    Said victories include Auroras Encore in 2013, and Rachael Blackmore on Minella Times in 2021.

    Both were adorned with the number 35, but of course, this year there will be no entry for that digit.

    Similarly, Pineau De Re in 2014 and Rule The World in 2016 both found good fortune with number 29.

    Historical patterns have shown horses carrying numbers between 11 and 29 are favourable, as they have provided 12 of the 22 winners within the previously mentioned time frame.

    These numbers, despite being less than half of the total entrants, has demonstrated a distinct edge in achieving Grand National success.

    Last year, Corach Rambler raced with the number 26. This also made it the first win for the number 26 in the last 22 years.

     

    Across the boards

    When engaging in each-way betting at the Grand National, where payouts usually extend to the top four or five, it’s interesting to look towards numbers that historically finish strong.

    The National is not just about picking a winner but also about identifying horses that are likely to place.

    Historical data over the past two decades reveals that numbers 8 and 39 have not had a top-six finish. It may be prudent to steer clear of these when considering each-way bets this year.

    The number 27 has consistently been a runner-up since 2000, runner-up no less than four times.

    Whilst not clinching victory, backing a horse with this number could be favourable.

     

    Top-weighted toils

    Historically, horses burdened with the heaviest weights often struggle in the Grand National.

    Notably, entrants labelled with any of the first nine numbers frequently do not even complete the race, all registering double-digit non-finishes.

    The horse assigned top draw number 1 typically bears the brunt, with a record of seven non-finishes within the past ten events.

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    But the standout figure for misfortune over the past decade is undoubtedly number 31.

    Achieving only a single completion since 2007, this number is associated with a high risk of falling or pulling up.

    Horses with lower odd numbers also tend to have a higher rate of incomplete races, a trend that can influence betting and expectations.

     

    Least successful

    Finally, In the realm of the National, riders and punters alike may find themselves wary of number 20.

    Historically, it has endured a string of misfortunes, often not completing the course due to the chaotic nature of the race.

    Incidents such as being unintentionally brought down by a falling horse ahead or being sidelined by an errant, riderless horse have plagued this number’s record.

     

    Whoever you are backing in this weekend’s Grand National, remember to gamble responsibly.

     

    The 2024 Randox Grand National takes place at Aintree on Saturday, race time 16:00 BST

  • Grand National Festival 2024 | Day Two: Selections and Naps

    Grand National Festival 2024 | Day Two: Selections and Naps

    Two winners yesterday, including the handicap best Sans Bruit cruising home in the Red Rum. Attentions turn to Day Two of the Grand National Festival with another cracking card. Grade One’s and handicaps are littered throughout the card, with competitiveness the name of the game. Here’s who we are going for today.

     

    NAP: Mildmay Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Inothewayurthinkin @ 9/4 (General)

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    If there was one standout performance from the Cheltenham Festival, it was Inothewayurhtinkin. His demolition of the Kim Muir field has propelled him into level weights company. If he jumps the way he did at Cheltenham, he’ll win. He won on similar ground too that day and will have no trouble with the bottomless, rain-soaked turf.

    Heart Wood missed the Cheltenham Festival after winning the Leopardstown Handicap Chase. Similar to Inothewayurthinkin, he dominated his last outing, winning by 14 lengths. He also has great form behind from beginners chases like Hollow Games, Grangeclare West and Blood Destiny. Missing Cheltenham is a positive when it comes to Aintree and Heart Wood can give Inothewayurthinkin a stern test. 9/2 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    E/W BET: Top Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Mistergif @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

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    Mistergif was underwhelming in the Supreme, but Willie Mullins is confident. With the run behind him he’s confident the run will give him the chance to run into the top three. He still has that 18-length victory on his record on heavy ground, which may favour him a little more than a few others.

     

    Handicap Best: William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – Making Headway @ 13/2 (General)

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    This season Making Headway has improved massively. He looked a little out of depth in the Formby Hurdle, Aintree’s other Grade One on Boxing Day, but has since relished handicap company. He finished a good fourth in the Imperial Cup but has been dropped a pound for the run. I can’t see the reasoning why and his performance at Newbury on heavy ground only adds to his value.

    Sonigino has a good record at Aintree. Two runs at the course have resulted in a win and a third. He pulled up in the Martin Pipe at the Festival but wasn’t travelling that day. Nicholls has a better record when it comes to Aintree and with Freddie Gingell on board, he drops to a pound under his previous winning mark back here in December. 25/1 (BetVictor).

    Spirit D’Aunou has one factor that no other horse has in the race. Over 50% record on heavy ground (2/3). Now whilst the main going says soft, it looks to be riding much heavier than the description and the mud lovers will come the fore in this race. Spirit D’Aunou has been underwhelming in his last two runs, but maybe the heavy ground and a four-pound drop in the weights could help. 50/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Selections:

    13:45 – Mildmay Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN @ 9/4 (General), Heart Wood e/w @ 9/2 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    14:20 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – MAKING HEADWAY (HB) @ 13/2 (General), Sonigino e/w @ 25/1 (BetVictor), Spirit D’Aunou e/w @ 50/1 (BetVictor)

    14:55 – Top Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Mystical Power @ 5/4 (William Hill, Boylesports), MISTERGIF E/W @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    15:30 – Melling Chase (GRADE ONE) – Envoi Allen @ 6/1 (General), Conflated e/w @ 14/1 (BetVictor), Easy Game e/w @ 20/1 (BetVictor)

    16:05 – Topham Handicap Chase (Premier) – Frero Banbou e/w @ 14/1 (General), Classic Getaway e/w @ 16/1 (General), Richmond Lake e/w @ 28/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports), Celebre D’Allen e/w @ 28/1 (BetVictor)

    16:40 – Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – The Jukebox Man @ 7/2 (William Hill), Croke Park e/w @ 7/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    17:15 – Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle – Eagles Reign @ 10/1 (William Hill), Luttrell Lad e/w @ 14/1 (General), Jungle Jack e/w @ 40/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, BetUK)

    The very best of luck!

  • Aintree Grand National Day 2 | Maiden handicap outing

    Aintree Grand National Day 2 | Maiden handicap outing

    After a shaky start with Grewy Dawning, day one finished strongly with Gerri Colombe and Sans Bruit winning alongside a big-priced place from La Marquise, setting us up for day two at the Aintree Grand National meeting.

    With rain hitting the track before the end of play on Thursday, the ground should be on the soft side and it’ll be interesting to see how much the surface has cut up.

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    1:45 Aintree – Giovinco @ 9/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase is one of the most competitive Grade 1s of the whole week as you can make positive and negative points about most of the runners.

    However, the one who I can’t get away from is Giovinco at 9/1 for Lucinda Russell and Stephen Mulqueen.

    His effort in the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase was superb, and I would rate the form of finishing behind Fact To File and Monty’s Star among the best pieces of form in this race.

    If you can ignore the pulled-up effort in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase – which was on good ground and 18 days after a big run at Sandown – his season looks very solid on paper.

    He’s also got course and distance form and connections gave him a 51-day break between Boxing Day and his facile success at Newcastle on heavy ground in a match race over an inadequate trip.

    Inothewayurthinkin could see plenty of money for him at the off and therefore show his superiority, but Giovinco is a solid each-way angle.

     

    2:20 Aintree – Kateira @ 11/2 with William Hill & Jango Baie @ 10/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 1pt EW for both

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    Regular watchers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel might have seen that Masaccio was a big fancy of mine for this race at the entry stage.

    However, Alan King didn’t declare him for this, so both Kateria and Jango Baie are his replacements.

    The market has found Kateria, who was highlighted as a good handicap chance by Dan Skelton earlier this week, and she will come on for her staying-on fourth at Kempton last time out.

    Having finished second in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree last season, a race that has worked out well thanks to Irish Point, Hermes Allen, Crambo, and Letsbeclearaboutit, a mark of 136 looks lenient.

    As for Jango Baie, he is a proven Grade 1 horse in this field but doesn’t have to carry top weight.

    Reading into his form, the second from the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle, Favour And Fortune, ran well to finish sixth in the Supreme and even Making Headway, a 15-length fourth, won a nice maiden hurdle at Newbury before finishing fourth in the Imperial Cup.

    On debut, he looked like a proper animal to beat Tellherthename at Ascot over two miles and running into both Personal Ambition and Handstands while giving weight away is no mean feat.

     

    4:05 Aintree – Frero Banbou @ 14/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This weekend’s Topham Handicap Chase sees Frero Banbou running off his lowest mark for three years, and he is a horse who has run well over the Grand National fences before.

    The nine-year-old last tasted success in January 2021 which, admittedly, is a long time ago, but that was off a mark of 134 and he looked stylish that day on heavy ground, so conditions shouldn’t cause any issues.

    Fast-forward to November 2023 and he finished a good third in the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase off 133 and Nassalam was behind him in fourth who has since won a Welsh Grand National while simultaneously improving 19lbs.

    Furthermore, Fantastic Lady, a horse who has been backed over the last few hours for the Topham, was back in fifth.

    He then ran off a mark of 140 (when four pounds out of the handicap) at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day in a race that Shakem Up’Arry won; Ben Pauling’s 10-year-old has won the Plate since which means Frero Banbou gets an 18lb swing with Shakem Up’Arry who is the 13/2 second-favourite.

    The Venetia William stable form would be a cause for concern, but she had a winner yesterday and the ground won’t cause any issues.

     

    5:15 Aintree – Maidenstreetprince @ 5/1 with Bet365 – 1pt Win

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    Charles Byrnes doesn’t waste too many darts when he comes over to the UK, so with the form Maidenstreetprince has in the book, he is worth a long second look.

    The seven-year-old had plenty of time off the track between his third to Gaelic Warrior at Clonmel in January 2023 and his return at Galway in October 2023, but he showed great promise at Cork on his last start.

    He travelled very well through the race and looked to challenge Sir Gerhard, a 155-rated former Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle winner, before falling at the second last.

    Furthermore, the form of his Limerick maiden hurdle in December 2022 is superb as Sa Fureur, rated 143 over fences, finished fourth in the Grand Annual, Aime Desjy will contest tomorrow’s Topham Handicap Chase off 141 after a facile beginners chase success in March, and Shanbally Kid finished a good third in the Coral Cup which received a form boost yesterday thanks to Langer Dan’s third in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle.

    So, off a mark of 128 with Phillip Byrnes’ three-pound claim, he looks well-handicapped for a big run. The worry would be the 12-day turnaround, but one would suggest connections wouldn’t come here unless he was sound at home.

  • Grand National 2024 | Final 34-runner start list confirmed

    Grand National 2024 | Final 34-runner start list confirmed

    The final 34-runner start list for the 2024 Randox Grand National was unveiled on Thursday.

    Corach Rambler looks to follow in the footsteps of Tiger Roll and Red Rum in winning back-to-back Nationals.

    Lucinda Russell can join the list of trainers with three Grand National winners in the world’s most famous £1 million steeplechase.

     

    Mullins eyes second

    For Willie Mullins, its seems almost unfathomable the Closutton maestro has just one National winner under his belt.

    This weekend, the Irish Champion trainer seeks a second success since Hedgehunter in 2005.

    Ridden by Ruby Walsh in the famed colours of JP McManus, it was 19 years ago Mullins entered the winner’s enclosure in Liverpool.

    In 2024, he also holds strong interest in last year’s Irish National victor, I Am Maximus and Meetingofthewaters, a two-time winner this season.

     

    History-making

    Gordon Elliott, a three-time winner of the Grand National can make race history this weekend with number four.

    Holding eight of the 34 runners at Aintree, Delta Work spearheads after finishing third behind Noble Yeats in 2022.

    Noble Yeats also returns for another crack after his famous win two years ago.

    Elliott also carries hope with Galvin, Coko Beach, Farouk D’Alene, The Goffer, Run Wild Fred, Chemical Energy and Minella Crooner.

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    Irish hopes are also strong with Vanillier, the initial favourite when the weights were announced.

    The 9yo finished second to Corach Rambler 12 months ago, and has since drifted in the market.

    Trainer Gavin Cromwell is also represented by Paddy Power Mares’ Chase winner Limerick Lace, lining up under Mark Walsh.

    2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo is one of three Henry de Bromhead-trained runners, with Ain’t That A Shame and Eklat De Rire also taking their chance.

     

    Home field

    Saturday’s start list boasts strong home representation.

    Scottish National winner Kitty’s Light would be a popular and emotional winner for Christian Williams.

    Meanwhile, Welsh National victor Nassalam is entered by Gary Moore, with Dan Skelton’s Grade 2 winner Galia Des Liteaux also declared.

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    Tom Ellis’ Latenightpass, Eldorado Allen, Mac Tottie and Chambard complete the list of British-trained runners.

    Martin Brassil-trained Panda Boy is prominent in the market, whilst Mahler Mission was second to Datsalrightgino in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury in December.

    Foxy Jacks – trained by Mouse Morris – and Patrick Griffin’s Roi Mage also take their spot.

     

    The full start list for the 2024 Randox Grand National:

    1. Noble Yeats – Harry Cobden
    2. Nassalam – Caoilin Quinn
    3. Coko Beach – TBC
    4. Capodanno -Keith Donoghue
    5. I Am Maximus – Paul Townend
    6. Minella Indo – Rachael Blackmore
    7. Corach Rambler – Derek Fox
    8. Janidil – Jody McGarvey
    9. Stattler – Patrick Mullins
    10. Mahler Mission – Ben Harvey
    11. Delta Work – TBC
    12. Foxy Jacks – TBC
    13. Galvin – TBC
    14. Farouk D’Alene – TBC
    15. Eldorado Allen – Brendan Powell
    16. Ain’t That A Shame – David Maxwell
    17. Vanillier – Sean Flanagan
    18. Mr Incredible – Brian Hughes
    19. Run Wild Fred – TBC
    20. Latenightpass – Gina Andrews
    21. Minella Crooner – TBC
    22. Adamantly Chosen – Sean O’Keeffe
    23. Mac Tottie – James Bowen
    24. Chemical Energy – TBC
    25. Limerick Lace – Mark Walsh
    26. Meetingofthewaters – Danny Mullins
    27. The Goffer – TBC
    28. Roi Mage – James Reveley
    29. Glengouly = Michael O’Sullivan-
    30. Galia Des Liteaux -Harry Skelton
    31. Panda Boy – TBC
    32. Eklat De Rire – Darragh O’Keeffe
    33. Chambard – Lucy Turner
    34. Kitty’s Light – Jack Tudor

     

    The 2024 Randox Grand National takes place on Saturday at Aintree, race time 16:00 BST.

  • Grand National Festival 2024 | Day One: Selections and Naps

    Grand National Festival 2024 | Day One: Selections and Naps

    After the major success of the Cheltenham Festival, the Spring Festivals offer more opportunity to add to the balance. Today it’s all about the Grade One’s and some mouth-watering clashes between some of the stars of Cheltenham.

    NAP: William Hill Aintree Bowl (GRADE ONE) – Shishkin @ 11/4 (General)

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    Shishkin fell victim to the Nicky Henderson curse at the Cheltenham Festival but seems to be one of those that has bounced back quickly. And this race would’ve been in the pipeline after the Gold Cup. And this race has fell right into his lap. He won last year’s contest with, arguably, a weak field. Now the field seems stronger, but Shishkin still has the ability to win another. He’ll go well on what will be extreme ground this weekend.

    Corbetts Cross also has the ability to chuck himself right into it too. A dominant display in the Brown Advisory sees him step up into the big time. Winning on heavy ground in Cheltenham by a wide margin showcased that he can easily match those who have vastly more experience than him. 7/2 (William Hill, BetUK).

     

    E/W BET: Manifesto Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Colonel Harry @ 28/1 (General)

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    Only two horses in the field act well on heavy ground. Grey Dawning and Colonel Harry who both ran in the Turners’ at the Festival. Granted that the latter may be out of his depth in a Grade One. But with the heavy ground, anything can happen. He was second in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown on heavy ground, then backed it up with a win, in similar conditions, in the Grade Two Towton at Wetherby. There also hasn’t been a winning favourite of this race since 2013, so might not be as open and shut as you would think.

     

    Handicap Best: Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier) – Sans Bruit @ 7/1 (BetVictor, BetUK)

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    This isn’t the best handicap by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s the only handicap of the day. Saint Roi looks to be the favourite but there are others that make a little more appeal, particularly with the ground. One of them is Sans Bruit who is being quickly turned out after finishing second at Chepstow 10 days ago. He’s a winner on heavy in France and hasn’t set the world alight since transferring to Paul Nicholls. However, with a low weight on his back and generally unexposed at this level, he may be worth a chance.

    Irish Blaze is another that could be worth a chance. The English handicapper has been a bit harsh on a horse who reignited his chasing campaign back in December. It’s a little odd that trainer Cian Collins has waited since finishing third in a novice chase to Mister Policeman. Has this race been what he’s been working towards? Each-way claims at 16/1 (General).

     

    Selections:

    13:45 – Manifesto Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Grey Dawning @ Evs (William Hill, Unibet), COLONEL HARRY E/W @ 28/1 (General)

    14:20 – Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Sir Gino @ 10/11 (General), Kalif Du Berlais e/w @ 8/1 (BetVictor, Unibet)

    14:55 – William Hill Aintree Bowl (GRADE ONE) – SHISHKIN (NAP) @ 11/4 (General), Corbetts Cross e/w @ 7/2 (William Hill, BetUK)

    15:30 – William Hill Aintree Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Bob Olinger @ 15/8 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet)

    16:05 – Hunter’s Chase – Bennys King @ 13/2 (BetVictor, Betfred), Annamix e/w @ 6/1 (General), Matts Commission e/w @ 100/1 (General)

    16:40 – Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier) – SANS BRUIT (HB) @ 7/1 (BetVictor, BetUK), Irish Blaze e/w @ 16/1 (General)

    17:15 – Goffs Nickel Coin Mares’ NHF (Grade Two) – Honky Tonk Highway @ 4/1 (General)

    The very best of luck!

  • Grand National Festival 2024 | Day One: A new Dawning

    Grand National Festival 2024 | Day One: A new Dawning

    The Aintree Grand National meeting is upon us with 11 Grade 1 races across three action-packed days.

    Thanks to persistent downpours in Liverpool, heavy ground is almost a certainty for day one, so let this enter your calculations when betting tomorrow.

    So, with this in mind, here are my best day one fancies.

     

    1:45 Aintree – Grey Dawning @ 1/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Opening up the selections for the day is Grey Dawning in the first race looking to back up from his success at Cheltenham last month.

    The seven-year-old grey was gallant in the Grade 1 Turners Novices Chase as both he and Ginny’s Destiny pulled well-clear of Djelo in third, and his jumping was much improved from his previous outings this season.

    His form has worked out all season as Crebilly, a horse he beat at the Cheltenham December meeting, finished second in the Plate, Trelawne, a horse he beat in the same race, placed in a Grade 2 after, and Apple Away has partially franked the form of his Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase success.

    Dan Skelton thinks the world of this horse, so let’s hope he delivers in conditions that should suit well.

     

    2:55 Aintree – Gerri Colombe @ 7/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    The Grade 1 Aintree Bowl has many interesting angles pre-race. Is the Nicky Henderson stable in form? Can Corbetts Cross mix it at this level? Will Bravemansgame bounce back with first-time cheekpieces?

    For me, Gerri Colombe has drifted to 7/4, making his price too good to leave based on his performance when second to Galopin Des Champs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

    That performance in the Gold Cup was a huge effort, so the one element of doubt is if he can back up at Aintree. However, his ability to put in a big performance in last year’s Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase before a facile success in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase offers hope that he will be fine.

    If Sir Gino obliges in the Grade 1 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle earlier on the card, my level of worry for Shishkin would grow as we all know what he can do on a going day.

    However, he is my only major worry at the prices, so I’m happy to stick with Gerri Colombe.

     

    4:05 Aintree – Annamix @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Any time a big hunter chase comes under my microscope, classy older horses are where I focus my attention, which is the reason why Annamix has caught my attention.

    The 11-year-old has contested nine point-to-points/hunter chases over the last 18 months, though it’s his recent form that is worth taking note of.

    In April 2023 he beat Billaway and Ferns Lock over 3m1f and since that success, he has won two races, the most recent of which was a 10-length success at Gowran Park.

    All of his recent runs have occurred over three miles, though back in his heyday, he won over 2m4f on heavy ground and even finished third in the 2022 Topham over course and distance.

    His ability to stay further than the 2m5f test of the Foxhunters’ is a massive positive as the race will test stamina thanks to the heavy going description.

    With part-owner Patrick Mullins onboard to do the steering, I’m hoping for a big run from Annamix.

     

    4:40 Aintree – Sans Bruit @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    After a few hours of trying to find a way to take on Saint Roi, I had all but given up hope until the case for Sans Bruit began to grow on me.

    The French import loves heavy ground having won many times in France in testing conditions, though some notable pieces of form include his victory over Golden Son (a now-stablemate) and Gaelic Warrior (the most recent Arkle winner) while giving weight away as a three-year-old.

    Admittedly, a lot of water has gone under the bridge since, but he won four races after that in France before heading over to Paul Nicholls’.

    After two runs over hurdles, he picked his form up when second at Chepstow earlier this month on his first start over fences in the UK, though he has plenty of chasing experience from his time in France.

    A mark of 130 for this unexposed handicap chaser is lenient and I’m willing to take a chance on him. If tomorrow isn’t the day, then I’ll keep a close eye on him going forward.

     

    5:15 Aintree – La Marquise @ 33/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW

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    In the final race on day one, La Marquise is a horse I’ve watched all season (thanks to a helping earlier-season pointer from trainer Jamie Snowden) and tomorrow is her first test in the deep end of a Grade 2.

    The four-year-old gets eight pounds from the older mares, though she doesn’t lack experience having raced three times, two of which were successes.

    By Beaumec De Houelle, a new French sire who won five races over hurdles in France including a Grade 1 success over Pic D’Orhy, La Marquise is a half to the Grade 3-winning Mister Policeman and comes from the family of Faulkner, a horse who placed in a Grade 1 with Doug Watson in Meydan.

    The manner of her success at Chepstow on her last start was eye-catching as Gavin Sheehan didn’t give her a tough time, all he needed was the use of hands and heels to pick up the victory.

    She has form on soft ground and that relation to Mister Policeman (and her sire) suggests heavy ground should cause no issues.