Yesterday at Goodwood we saw the return of King Kinross, but also some near misses (Oh Iberian, you’ll win next time).
But it’s a new day today and get those marmalade sandwiches at the ready as Paddington returns to the track. And can that horse Hewick win the Galway Plate again? Find out in today’s Four to Follow.
FAST BETWEEN THE DROPS
2:25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group Three) – Fast Response @ 5/1 (General)
Firstly, the weather will be key to all bets at Goodwood tomorrow. Heavy rain is expected throughout the night and throughout the late morning/early afternoon, so the ground will be like a bog.
Trawling through the card I saw only four horses in this field act on heavy ground, and Fast Response is well suited to handle the heavy stuff.
This is a step up for her, as she’s never performed above Listed level. But given there are select horses that can act on the ground, she can make the step up in grade.
It’s worth looking down the market too, big prices will feature (as they did yesterday). The French raider Sicilian Defence makes a bit of appeal, as she has performed and won on heavy ground.
According to comments, her results have to be looked into as bare form can be misleading. Draw 15 isn’t a great draw, but according to the trainer it shouldn’t matter as she is a hold up horse, but she will need to be midfield, rather than at the rear for this kind of race.
Watch out for her at 22/1 (General).
HACKING THROUGH THE TURF
3:00 – Molecomb Stakes (Group Three) – Hackman @ 22/1 (William Hill, Unibet)
Hackman is a big price. But he is the only horse in the field to have acted, and won, on heavy ground. All the other horses haven’t acted on it, and breeding lines suggest that these two-year-olds are bred to sprint which would mean they’d prefer good-to-firm ground.
Stall six on the straight course will be beneficial, with many winners on Day One coming down the stand-side rail. Trainer Hugo Palmer has said that the more rain, the better for this son of Mehmas.
Tom Marquand delivered a peach of a ride on Quickthorn in the feature at Goodwood yesterday, and can do the same here
PADDINGTON ON A PADDLE
3:35 – SUSSEX STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Paddington @ 4/9 (General)
Paddington has won on heavy ground, is a treble Group One winner. He’s stepping down in distance. Paddington is the best rated horse. Anything else?
It would be worth going on the without market or forecasts because the equation is quite simple. And despite under a penalty Aldaary stands out from the small field.
Soft ground specialist, including a winner on heavy ground. She has a slight advantage with an inside draw, but it doesn’t make a difference in a small field.
Jim Crowley will want to seek a win after his ridiculous 20-day ban, and Aldaary is 14/1 (William Hill) outright.
FUN AND GAMES
6:40 – Galway Plate (Grade Three) – Hollow Games @ 17/2 (BetVictor)
Hollow Games has looked inevitable to go into handicap chasing. And this looks like a real chance for the Gordon Elliott and Bective Stud chaser.
He looks well-handicapped, rated at 142, and has a young jockey aboard that I really like, Sam Ewing. He comes in fresh, looks unexposed and the step up in trip might be beneficial on the evidence of his debut handicap run at the Punchestown Festival.
But it’s never that simple in a big handicap chase, there might be some others in behind to take the big Summer jumps prize.
One of them could be Fury Road, who I backed in the Ryanair way back in March. He didn’t run to form that day, or after, but is down to an attractive mark of 155.
A winning mark back in November at Down Royal in graded company as well. He likes soft ground and 2m 6F shouldn’t be a problem, and Jack Kennedy is back in the saddle!
12/1 (William Hill) for a big race winner on a jockey’s big race return.
The very best of luck!