Cheltenham October Meeting: Tips, Form and Insight
Race-by-race strategy for Cheltenham betting decisions
The Cheltenham October Meeting signifies that the jumps are well and truly back in town.
https://twitter.com/ASymondsJourno/status/1717861784713847184
Whether you love seeing two-mile hurdlers rattle around the banked course of Prestbury Park, or you prefer watching a three-mile chasing slug it out from the front, the home of jump racing has a bit of everything today.
As is the case every week, the three horses below are my strongest fancies on what is a tricky day at HQ.
1:15 Cheltenham – Haddex Des Obeaux @ 5/2 – 1pt Win
The opening contest at Cheltenham is a great two-mile handicap chase with horses like Before Midnight, Red Rookie, and Notlongtillmay providing good depth.
That being said, I’m with the favourite to kick off the day as Haddex Des Obeaux is a horse I have lots of time for.
The French-bred six-year-old had a turbulent season for Gary Moore last season thanks to two victories, one unlucky second, and an unseating on seasonal debut.
https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/1608445731999825922
However, the class he showed on his last two starts of the season proved to many why he could be a Graded horse in time.
The first of which occurred at Doncaster where he made all to beat Coastguard Staton, Nero Rock and Datsalrightgino, the latter being a horse who is rated 11 pounds higher and is a Grade 2-winning novice chaser.
Less than three weeks later, he jumped brilliantly on heavy ground to bolt up by 19 lengths before he suffered a setback and Moore called time on his season.
Cracking performance 🏇
A fine front-running effort from Haddex Des Obeaux who readily lands the Edward Courage Cup for @gl_racing & @jemoore85 @WarwickRaces pic.twitter.com/mlsXJfZ0Bn
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) January 14, 2023
Off an official rating of 146 today, it looks as if connections have a horse for Graded races further down the line so making use of his lenient handicap mark is a good way to kick off the season.
Although In Excelsis Deo looks like an interesting proposition on just his fifth start over fences for Harry Fry and is probably the each-way angle into a race like this, Haddex Des Obeaux is a horse I like and hopefully, he can reward my love for him in the opener.
3:00 Cheltenham – Gortmillish @ 12/1 – 1pt EW
As is the case with many Pertemps Qualifiers, they are tough races to find a strong bet in, though the 12/1 price of Gortmillish has caught my attention.
Trained by Gordon Elliott, someone who is partial to a Cheltenham winner at The Showcase, the seven-year-old comes to Prestbury Park with the standard Irish tax applied to his handicap mark, though the five-pound claim of Danny Gilligan (on his only ride at Cheltenham today) should help diminish that.
The three-mile point-to-point winner scored twice for Cullentra House Stables over hurdles in the summer; once over two miles when well-fancied at Perth and once over 2m6f at Downpatrick three weeks later.
Delighted to pick up a double @DownpatrickRace today with Gortmillish (@jackkennedy15) & Foxfire Glow (Mark Walsh).
Congratulations to their owners @gingepage75 @davidrabson1 @KtdaRacing & J P McManus.
📸 Healy Racing. pic.twitter.com/HJrqH3v7Bq
— Gordon Elliott (@gelliott_racing) July 13, 2023
The form of his success two starts ago has worked out well since as the second, Charlie Luciano, beat Elliott’s Calico on his next start and the third, Lisnamult Lad, now has an official rating of 131 having bolted up by a combined 44.5 lengths on his next two starts for John McConnell.
For a horse rated 123 over in the UK, that in isolation makes him look like a well-handicapped horse, and the fact he finished a staying-on second to My Mate Mozzie in at Punchestown bumper in April 2021 further adds to that idea.
Gordon Elliott doubled up @DownpatrickRace with Gortmillish & said:"He gallops & is really honest. The track was a bit tight for him but he won well. I'm delighted with him, he's grand horse. No, he won't go to Perth (over an extended 2m in three days time), he probably wants 3m"
— Irishracing.com Live (@IrishRacing365) July 13, 2023
If Elliott thinks Gortmillish could be a potential for the Pertemps Final in March, winning today would help improve his handicap mark to make sure he gets into the race, so today could be the day to catch him.
3:35 Cheltenham – Reverend Hubert @ 4/1 – 2pt Win
The Irish have a strong hand in the three-mile novice hurdle later today, though I’m steering away from the head of the market and putting my trust in Reverend Hubert for Charles and Philip Byrnes.
Firstly, I think that Willie Mullins’ High Class Hero is quite a smart novice hurdler, so it comes with the territory that if a horse can get to within six lengths of him, they might be above average.
👀 Nice debut
Point scorer High Class Hero cost £90,000 & opens his account at the first time of asking under Rules for @WillieMullinsNH & Jody Townend in the finale at @ListowelRaces pic.twitter.com/BUW4R4emh3
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) June 5, 2023
That’s what Reverend Hubert did on his last start 35 days ago on the softer-than-ideal ground at Listowel having travelled well into the race around the outside of the field.
High Class Hero bolted up by seven lengths on his next start, franking the form for Charles Byrnes’ five-year-old.
The former Richard Hannon-trained gelding, who achieved a career-high mark of 86 on the Flat in 2022, broke his maiden tag over hurdles when a facile eight-length winner at Downpatrick on good ground in August; the second, Ringdufferin, won two-on-the-bounce after that and actually runs in the Pertemps Qualifier in the race before.
Charles Byrnes and Philip Byrnes doubled up @DownpatrickRace with Reverend Hubert pic.twitter.com/IELdCHdWVI
— Irishracing.com Live (@IrishRacing365) August 28, 2023
With form over two miles on the Flat, I see no reason why Reverend Hubert won’t stay three miles and his experience could see him get the better of Antrim Coast, Gavin Cromwell’s thrice-raced five-year-old who heads the market.
Assessing form lines and ground for two-mile chases
Form lines are the backbone of short-distance chase analysis at Cheltenham, where speed and precise jumping often decide close finishes. Study recent finishes, margins, and the quality of the opposition rather than headline wins alone.
Give extra weight to how horses travelled through the race and whether they ran on or were headed early, as Prestbury Park frequently exposes jumpers who lack precision. Also factor in the going and any step up or down in trip relative to a horse’s best form.
Identifying staying types for three-mile novice hurdles
Three-mile novice hurdles require stamina and the ability to handle a testing rhythm over the top of the hill at Cheltenham. Look for horses with point-to-point or heavy-ground form who have shown staying-on ability in similar conditions.
A flat-race background over longer distances can be a plus, but recent hurdling improvement and the way a horse handles a steady gallop are better indicators than raw breeding. Trainers who target staying novices at Cheltenham often bring ready improvers.
Trainer and jockey angles to influence each-way value
Trainer patterns at Cheltenham are useful: some yards consistently place horses at big meetings while others aim for Grade races and handle course quirks better. Check stable form, handler comments, and how frequently trainers target this meeting.
Jockey bookings are particularly important at Cheltenham; experience around the course can win or lose seconds. A lower-priced jockey claim or a high-percentage partnership can create legitimate each-way value without relying on speculative stakes.
Where to find value in Pertemps and handicap chases
Pertemps qualifiers and big handicaps are often shallow on form and wide open on paper, so value comes from profiling runners who improve off summer or autumn wins. Prioritise horses with progressive marks and proven stamina.
Assess whether horses need to win to secure a final place, as connections may ride accordingly; a well-handicapped staying type with a recent win over similar trip often represents the best betting edge. Resist backing too many lightly-raced horses without clear form lines.
Using form models to adjust stakes and expected returns
Develop a simple model that weights recent runs, course experience, official rating changes, and going suitability to create an expected finishing position. Use that model to size stakes sensibly and to spot horses trading longer than modelled probability.
Keep stakes proportional to your bankroll and avoid chasing losses; this meeting is long and tempting, so disciplined staking protects your enjoyment. You can explore current bookmaker offers through our comparison tools if you choose to bet responsibly.
Quick checks: ground, weather and course bias at Cheltenham
Cheltenham’s undulations and bank favour horses that jump well and handle a cambered track, especially in testing ground. Before backing, check forecast rain and how the official going may change on race day.
Small differences in going can knock a favourite out of contention, so compare a horse’s best runs on similar ground and monitor late weather updates for decisive changes to your opinion.
How to approach each-way betting and stake allocation
Each-way bets are appropriate at Cheltenham when the race is competitive and bookmakers offer four- or five-place terms. Back each-way only when there is a clear reason to expect a place from form, course, or pace fit.
Divide stakes according to confidence: larger relative stakes for selections with proven Cheltenham form and smaller stakes for speculative each-way punts. Maintain consistent unit sizing across the meeting.
Monitoring market moves and late information before post
Market moves often reflect information from stable insiders, trackers, or the betting ring; sizeable drift or shortening should be noted but not blindly followed. Use market signals to adjust stake size rather than replace your analysis.
Late morning declarations, non-runners, and jockey switches can alter race shape and your selection’s chance, so check the final declarations and any race-day notes before confirming bets. Always ensure your account limits and staking plan are set in advance.
Responsible betting guidance and age requirements
Betting is for adults aged 18 and over only and should be treated as entertainment rather than a way to make money. Set affordable limits, take regular breaks, and use bookmaker tools such as deposit limits, timeouts and reality checks if you bet.
If gambling is causing harm, seek help from support services and consider self-exclusion options offered by licensed operators. You can explore current bookmaker offers through our comparison tools if you choose to bet responsibly.
Practical checklist for race-day preparation
Prepare a short list of races and a few selections rather than trying to bet every contest; focus on spots where you have a clear edge. Note stake levels, accepted odds, and alternative markets such as forecasts or tricast where appropriate.
Bring a simple betting plan that includes maximum exposure and a stop-loss level for the day; disciplined limits preserve enjoyment and reduce impulsive bets during a long meeting.
Interpreting course commentary and race replays after the meeting
Reviewing replays helps refine your analysis for future meetings; focus on how horses handled the bank, their jumping rhythm, and whether the leader was under pressure. Trainer patterns and jockey choices revealed by replays often show trends to exploit later in the season.
Keep a record of approaches that worked and those that didn’t, and update your model or notes accordingly. Learning from a single meeting builds long-term expertise without relying on risky betting behaviour.
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Common questions on Cheltenham betting and strategy
Q: How should I approach betting at Cheltenham as a beginner?
A: Start small, focus on one or two races you understand, and use bookmaker comparison tools to check terms and limits. Keep stakes within a pre-set daily budget and avoid chasing losses.
Q: Are there specific trainer or jockey trends to follow at Prestbury Park?
A: Yes. Track records of yards and pilots at Cheltenham can be informative, especially for novice races and staying events where experience matters. Use trends as one input among many.
Q: When is each-way betting appropriate at this meeting?
A: Each-way bets make sense when the race is open and bookmakers pay four or more places or when a selection has solid course or stamina form. Size stakes relative to confidence and place terms.
Q: How much should I stake on outsider each-way selections?
A: Keep stakes small and consistent with your bankroll plan; outsiders can win but are unpredictable, so treat them as entertainment rather than investment.
Q: What role does the going play at Cheltenham?
A: The going is crucial; some horses perform exclusively on soft or heavy ground while others need good ground. Compare a horse’s best performances over similar ground before backing.
Q: Can I rely on market moves before the race to decide my bet?
A: Market moves can indicate information but should not replace independent analysis. Use them to confirm or slightly adjust stakes rather than as a sole reason to bet.
Q: Where can I find safer tools to manage my betting activity?
A: Licensed bookmakers provide deposit limits, time-outs and self-exclusion. Use these features and seek external support if gambling causes harm.
Q: Is it wise to follow tipsters during the Cheltenham meeting?
A: Tipsters can offer useful ideas, but always cross-check their reasoning and size bets to your staking plan. Avoid relying on tips as a primary income source.
You can explore current bookmaker offers through our comparison tools to check free bets and welcome terms before placing a wager.
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