Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Cheltenham October Meeting Day 2 | Scoping out rivals

    Cheltenham October Meeting Day 2 | Scoping out rivals

    At the time of writing, day one of the Cheltenham October Meeting hasn’t started, so let’s assume all of Friday’s selections won, naturally.

    It’s a big day in both the jumps and Flat scene on Saturday, and here are my main selections.

     

    1:10 Cheltenahm – Lisnamult Lad @ 20/1 with Betfair (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    The opening contest on Saturday at Chelteham is wide-open, but Lisnamult Lad deserves respect for Ian Donoghue.

    When trained by John McConnell, he showed promise over hurdles, notably when bolting up at Hexham over 2m4f and Ludlow over one furlong further.

    He was sent off 5/2 to beat Butch at the same meeting last year, but I’m not sure how well he stays three miles.

    After that, ran well over three miles on his first two starts for Donoghue when second to the well-handicapped Bardenstown Lad and Tommie Beau, both of whom have won since.

    He has something to prove over fences, but he’s won on good ground before, goes well fresh, and is open to improvement over the bigger obstacles.

     

    2:05 Doncaster – Aberama Gold @ 7/1 with Bet365 (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    There’s nothing quirky about this pick as Aberama Gold is well-known to many people.

    I put him up in this column when third at Haydock three starts ago.

    Blue Storm, the winner that day, reopposes, but David O’Meara’s seven-year-old gets a six-pound swing in the weights which is key.

    Furthermore, Aberama Gold’s record at Doncaster reads 1, 18, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, so he clearly likes the track, especially in soft conditions.

    With Hollie Doyle booked, he can run a good race here.

     

    2:20 Cheltenham – Some Scope @ 13/2 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Some Scope has sat patiently in the tracker for a while, but Saturday could see him turn his run of good losing performances into a win.

    He was one of only two finishers in the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster in March, a race that looked brutal in the conditions.

    Speaking to Carl Hinchy, his part-owner, throughout last season, connections have wanted to keep him to a sounder surface, and he did win on good ground at Doncaster in January.

    Before that, he gave Twoshotsoftequila a good beating at Catterick on good to soft ground, form that looks solid as the runner-up won two races subsequently.

    Saturday’s good ground at Prestbury Park will play to his strengths and a mark of 126 is very reasonable for this improving six-year-old, so I think Some Scope will play his part in the big £100,000 handicap chase.

     

    2:40 Doncaster – Anno Domini @ 7/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The profile of Anno Domini goes against my usual MO as it’s his first run for 113 days, but I like what he brings to the Futurity Stakes.

    On his final start, he gave five pounds and a good beating to Windlord who chased home Hotazhell in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes last time out.

    He also beat Angel Hunter that day who has since won a hot nursery at York, and the fourth, Hawksbill, ran a solid race in the Listed Ascendant Stakes in September.

    He’s a New Bay half to the Group 1 placed Kathmandu and Listed winner Pythagoras, while the likes of Alborada (two-time Group 1 winner) and Albanova (three-time Group 1 winner) are further back in the family.

    Anno Domini is a likeable horse who hasn’t shown his full ability yet. Hopefully, he will do this on Saturday.

     

    3:30 Cheltenham – Givemefive @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Bottler’secret is attracting plenty of hype ahead of the Masterson Holdings Hurdle, and that’s fair. He’s the one to beat and Gavin Cromwell loves early-season Cheltenham winners.

    But, as I said on Wednesday’s Only Fools Love Horses preview, Givemefive is the safe bet.

    Harry Derham has targeted this race, and he’s razor-sharp when it comes to plotting horses for races. Take Shared winning at last season’s Chepstow jumps season opener as an example.

    The four-year-old by Holy Roman Emperor ran a good race on the Flat at Haydock last month to prepare for Saturday’s assignment, and there’s reason to suggest his run at Fairyhouse when behind Bottler’secret wasn’t his true self.

    Having raced on the Flat for Johnny Murtagh last summer, he hasn’t really had a proper break since the end of 2022 as he had just a 94-day rest between the end of his Flat campaign and the start of his jumps career.

    He’s race-fit, should handle the ground despite his soft ground form over hurdles to date, and it’s hard to deny the form he has with Kalif Du Berlais from the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle.

    At the prices, I’m happy to play him.

     

    4:05 Cheltenham – Theatre Man @ 9/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    I could fall into the trap of backing a nice horse on its first start of the season, but Theatre Man will take some whacking in the 3m novices’ chase.

    To my eye, Yeats Star and Moon D’Orange could do with softer ground, Bowtogreatness will need the run, and it’ll be tough for Hyland to give weight away to the favourite.

    That leaves Transmission and Theatre Man, and while I have the utmost respect for the former, Richard Bandey’s eight-year-old should have the class here.#

    Despite falling at the third in the Plate (a race he went off favourite for), he’s a fairly sound jumper and it’s hard to knock his staying on second to Ginny’s Destiny, the subsequent Turners Novices’ Chase runner-up, on Trials Day.

    He won at Kempton after a 79-day break in March 2023 and ran a solid race on his first start of last season when second at Newbury.

    If he replicates that form, or his winning Kempton form, he should go very close here.

  • Cheltenham October Meeting Day 1 | A Charming Plan

    Cheltenham October Meeting Day 1 | A Charming Plan

    It almost feels like last week since Rebel Dawn Rising won the 2m4f hunters’ chase at Prestbury Park in May, but the Flat season is in the past now and the Cheltenham October meeting is on our agenda.

    Friday kicks off another campaign at the home of jumps racing, and plenty of the races look very interesting.

    Kalpana helped eat into the loss this column took at Chepstow the week prior, so let’s hope Cheltenham is equally as kind to us.

     

    2:25 Cheltenham – Matata @ 9/4 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Although his price has come in since we recorded the Only Fools Love Horses preview, the case for Matata remains in the third race of the day.

    His last handicap run came at the course on New Year’s Day when second to Libberty Lane.

    The winner has since finished second in the Grand Annual and third in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase, and Matata made a mistake at the last fence which potentially cost him the race.

    The form of his second in the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase also looks good as Master Chewy, the fourth, was second to Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase two starts later.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old won on seasonal debut last year on good to soft ground and won on good ground in a novice handicap hurdle, so conditions should suit.

    Off 147, just five pounds higher than his mark when second to Libberty Lane, he has a good chance here.

     

    2:25 Cheltenham – Arclight @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    As much as Matata holds strong claims, the case for Arclight is a makeable one in the conditions.

    Nicky Henderson’s mare won on seasonal reappearance last season, a race that occurred on good ground, and the form of beating Mayhem Mya (improved eight pounds since) and Carole’s Pass (now rated 132) from her Listed Exeter success is strong.

    Her final win two starts ago occurred at Wincanton where he beat Marsh Wren, a subsequent two-time winner and Grade 2 Mares’ Chase third, which again looks like nice form for a horse rated 136.

    Back in handicap company, she is of interest.

     

    3:35 Cheltenham – Planned Paradise @ 14/1 with SkyBet (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    I can’t see why Planned Paradise won’t run a big race in the amateur jockeys’ handicap chase at Cheltenham on Friday.

    Just five starts ago in July, he dotted up at Perth off 107 (running to an RPR of 128) over 2m4f.

    He comes into Cheltenham this weekend off just a five-pound higher mark, and Gina Andrews choosing to ride him is worth noting.

    She rode Strictlyadancer when fourth in this race last year, but he is partnered by Edward Vaughan this year instead.

    Although Planned Paradise’s last win came over 2m4f, he ran into a clearly well-handicapped Get Up Much over 3m1f at Warwick on his last start and has run two good races over 3m5f before.

    The latest occurred at Fakenham in May when second, though he was also a runner-up to Quick Wave in the 2022 London National Handicap Chase off 119.

    He’ll like the ground, he has race fitness on his side, and is on a workable mark.

     

    4:10 Cheltenham – Potters Charm @ 7/4 with Paddy Power – 2pt Win

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    The local track Worcester saw Potters Charm sprint clear on hurdles debut last month, and I thought the performance was impressive.

    Chancycourt, who was already race-fit, is a fine horse for Fergal O’Brien and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ five-year-old won easily.

    He jumped nicely, and although he was rallied along at the end, I thought his turn of foot in the final half a furlong deserved plenty of respect.

    The better ground is a new condition he’ll have to face, but his dam’s half-brother, Earth King, won his three jumps races on good and good to soft.

    Connections have Grade 1 aspirations with him, and I hope he can continue that progression.

     

    4:45 Cheltenham – Jilaijone @ 10/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    David Pipe has landed a few nice races recently, notably at Chepstow two weeks ago, and he might have lined-up Jilaijone for the conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle.

    His mark of 119 is one pound higher than his official rating when second at Chepstow in October 2023, a race that came before his valiant second to Blueking d’Oroux in the Masterson Holdings Hurdle over course and distance.

    The winner has a rating of 150 now having won a Grade 2 subsequently, so the form looks strong and he’ll handle the good ground.

    Gearoid Harney claims a further six pounds off his back as well, so this improving five-year-old looks like an unexposed type here.

  • Five To Follow – Qipco British Champions Day Tips

    Five To Follow – Qipco British Champions Day Tips

    It’s the flat’s biggest finale, and what a send off in store! This year sees the very best of the British and European Champions battle each other out one final time. We’ve a mouthwatering battle in the Champion Stakes and competitive action in both the Sprint Stakes and Balmoral Handicap. Let’s get stuck into Five of the best races of the year.

     

    Nothing But Love

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    1:55 – British Champions Sprint Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Unequal Love @ 11/1 (Unibet)

    There’s one interesting trend with this race. No former Group One winners have a good record in the race. In fact, Muhaarar was the last horse to win a sprint Group One and this race. Kinross did win the G1 Prix la Foret over seven before winning this, but not won a Group One six furlong sprint.

    The other factor is repeat winners of the race are very very rare. No horse has done it recently, and due to the competitive nature of the race. It’s unlikely it will happen again.

    It’s soft ground overall and Unequal Love looks like the best candidate to take this race out. She has soft ground form when breaking her maiden over a soft six furlongs at Ripon. She also finished a close fourth on soft ground at the end of last season, before winning on April good ground this year. After winning the Wokingham at the Royal meeting in June, she holds every chance.

    Each-way plays are useful in this race, with James’s Delight the perfect example. A fantastically progressive horse, who loves a bog. He won on heavy ground at Pontefract by six-and-a-half lengths. Ryan Moore gets the leg up, having won on him in the Macmillan Sprint at York back in June. Definite value at 14/1 (William Hill).

    Elite Status didn’t hit the heights in the Haydock Sprint Cup, but wrong tactics let him down that day when he led the field. He does like to be prominent but wants to sit behind the pace. He won twice at the start of the season and has soft ground form from his two-year-old season. Definite top-three chance. 14/1 (General).

     

    Back To Happiness

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    2:35 – British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    After her no show in the Prix Royallieu, Content is back up to her perfect distance of a mile-and-a-half. She’s versatile with her ground too, after winning on soft ground as a two-year-old. With weight being given to her, she’s the top rated horse in the race and experienced at Group One level. Draw nine on the round course might not suit her, but Ryan Moore can produce rabbits out of his hat at will.

    I quite like the chances of some of the European runners today, particularly Quantanemera. She beat Arrest on very soft (soft) ground at Deauville over 12 furlongs, which stands her in good stead. On her form, it looks like the softer the better for her and against the girls, she can be dangerous. Interesting at 15/2 (General).

     

    Fan-a French Fillies

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    3:15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Tamfana @ 100/30 (William Hill)

    Tamfana was due her Group One a couple of weeks ago at Newmarket, and she won it against experienced opposition on soft ground. Dominant can’t explain her performance any better. Now up against the boys too, I think she’s got a massive chance. Particularly with three-year-olds 8/10 in the last ten renewals. One of the top rated, and a trainer in form, it’s worth taking on the favourite.

    Another one to note is Prague. He won in spectacular fashion at the Cambridgeshire meeting in the Joel Stakes, against two mud lovers. He finally found his conditions last time out and will have them here again. After making a big step up to Group Two level last time, will he handle the bigger step up to the top level. He’s got ground and form on his side, so is worth having. 12/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet).

     

    Calan The Dragon

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    3:55 – Champion Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Calandagan @ 13/8 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet)

    After an incredible season, are there any holes to poke at Economics. Yes. Is one and only two-year-old run came on heavy ground, which resulted in him finishing fourth. And he hasn’t run on any surface similar to that this season.

    Calandagan on the other hand has been ultra consistent. Firstly, he won by six lengths at Ascot which is a big plus. Secondly, he was best of the rest in the International Stakes, closing the gap on City Of Troy to a length, and finished three lengths in front of Ghostwriter. He’s won on softer ground in France over 10 furlongs, which is another big positive. He’s drawn to the inside of the course which is another positive. He can become a worthy champion, and follow in Sealiway’s footsteps on British Champions Day.

    Royal Rhyme presents fantastic each-way value. If you look a little more closely at his inconsistent form, bar the International Stakes, he has always finished close to the finish. He was only three lengths away in a bunch finish in the Irish Champion Stakes and the best part of two lengths last in a tight York Stakes. His only win this season came over ten furlongs at Sandown on soft ground, and he’s been waiting for these conditions all season. Far too big at 50/1 (General).

     

    One For The North

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    4:35 – Balmoral Handicap – Lattam @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    One more trip down the Royal Mile this season and prepare for a slog. Which will suit Lattam down to the ground. Formerly with William Haggas, he won the Irish Lincolnshire on soft to heavy ground. He finished second in this year’s Lincoln at Doncaster, and best form comes on soft ground. He’s drawn on the, traditional, bias on the far side. He’s back to a mark of 95, the same as his second in the Lincoln. Expect him to go near.

    Bopedro is never far away in these handicaps. A slightly up and down season has seen him finish second and third, latterly in the Ascot Challenge Cup. He was rated 102 on British Champions Day last year, and is down to a six pound lower mark. Best performances for him come with soft in the title, so expect him to run a race true to form. 12/1 (BetVictor).

    And one more for the in form David Menuisier, Toimy Son. He comes into the race, two pounds well in after finishing third in the Cambridgeshire. He seems to have ground versatility, but the majority of Menuisier’s love the soft conditions. Drawn to the far side, he’s got a slight advantage on the soft underfoot. 14/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Qipco British Champions Day Selections | A returning Fellow

    Qipco British Champions Day Selections | A returning Fellow

    It’s the finale of the UK Flat season as Qipco British Champions Day is upon us.

    The card is a belter from top to bottom and it is the best day of racing we’ve had all season.

    We already have two ante-post selections from Wednesday (Beauvatier @ 12/1 and Bucanero Fuerte @ 25/1) for the British Champions Sprint Stakes, which can be viewed here.

    At 10/1 for Beauvatier and 33/1 for Bucanero Fuerte, I’ll place another 0.5pt EW.

    So, let’s not mess about. Here are my main selections.

     

    2:35 Ascot – Kalpana @ 9/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Admittedly, my recent form makes for tough reading, but surely even I can’t cause a horse to drift as much as Kalpana has over the last 96 hours, right?

    She was a general 7/4 shot in the build-up to this race in the full knowledge that the ground would turn soft, yet she is now available at 4/1.

    This Study Of Man filly is one I’ve liked for a while as she showed so much ability to beat the now 102-rated Align The Stars by 10 lengths at Newmarket in April. She then chased home Friendly Soul in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes on her next start.

    The winner won the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera recently to add to her other subsequent Group 3 and 2 successes.

    The big worry is the ground over 12 furlongs, and I do understand the concern.

    Her pedigree offers some hope as her dam, Zero Gravity, is a full sister to the Group 1 winner Zambezi Sun who won his only Group 1 on good to soft and also placed in a Group 2 on soft.

    The three runs outside of Royal Ascot were all on good ground, certainly not a fast surface, and she had no problem with it on all three occasions.

    I think she is classy, and I hope today is the day she shows that at Group 1 level.

     

    3:15 Ascot – Henry Longfellow @ 15/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The QEII looks like a muddling little contest, but I’ve landed on Henry Longfellow who will handle conditions over a mile at Ascot.

    His main piece of form to hang the hat on is his second to Rosallion, the 2000 Guineas runner-up and Irish 2000 Guineas winner, in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

    That occurred on good to firm, but he looked to have quite a high knee action to my eye (his front legs really powered into the ground), and he won on soft on debut.

    His two subsequent runs as a juvenile saw him beat Stunning Peach by two and five lengths respectively; Stunning Peach nearly beat Los Angeles in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final start of the season.

    The Group 1 Prix du Moulin, his final start, didn’t plan out in a usual manner, but he stayed on through the line under a hands-and-heels drive from Ryan Moore, suggesting his ability remains.

    I think he’s still a class act and one who will hopefully handle a soft ground mile at Ascot.

     

    3:55 Ascot – King’s Gambit @ 25/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    The Champion Stakes looks like a great contest, but I’m taking a chance on King’s Gambit at a big price.

    Two of his last three runs were unlucky as he was given a mountain to do, but he still ran with credit.

    The last occurred over 12 furlongs on good to firm ground, and I think he should have beaten Los Angeles if positioned closer to the pace.

    Back to 10 furlongs should therefore suit, and both Illinois and Los Angeles have franked the form of his run in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes.

    Although the ground is cause for concern, he was a fine second on soft as a juvenile and won on good to soft on his second career start.

    Two of his dam’s full siblings, Sophisticat and Grand Reward, also showed good form on slower surfaces as well.

    The former finished third in the 2002 French 1000 Guineas on soft and the latter showed some of his best form on yielding in a Group 3.

    He’s a big price and he’s a classy animal.

     

    4:35 Ascot – Daysofourlives @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Balmoral Handicap isn’t one for the fainthearted, but Daysofourlives has a lot of upsides.

    He’s a two-time winner over a mile, but his last success came over two furlongs further on good ground, so he should stay eight furlongs at Ascot in testing conditions.

    Speaking of the ground, he finished third in a Nottingham novice on soft ground, one place ahead of the now 101-rated Balance Play.

    Of his two starts at the Berkshire track, he won a handicap over course and distance off 85 in September 2023 and then she finished fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup.

    Five of the first six home that day came from stall 17 or above, so it was a mighty performance to finish a staying-on fourth from stall 10.

    On his first start back from an 87-day break, he beat Liberty Lane at Doncaster recently, form that looks strong considering he won the Cambridgeshire on his next start and finished second in the Group 3 Darley Stakes after that.

    When you consider that the top four in the handicap have rather lofty ratings, the rest of the handicap from number five to 20 has just a nine-pound difference from top to bottom.

    At that stage, it’s a case of who looks like the best horse.

    To me, Daysofourlives fits that description.

  • Qipco Champions Day | Cheval a Facteur in Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

    Qipco Champions Day | Cheval a Facteur in Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

    As the nights draw in and the Autumn leaves fall, the final official act of the flat season takes place place this weekend at Ascot, as were going out in style with Qipco Champions Day.

    With five British Champions contests on Saturday’s glittering slate, the cream of the season’s racing comes together.

    In the second of our Champions Day features, we put the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes under the spotlight, and going up against the 11/10f Charyn, can Facteur Cheval finally pick up his maiden UK win?

     

    French fancy

    Like in Saturday’s Champion Stakes, there is strong French interest in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

    Making a UK turf debut in last year’s Sussex Stakes, the 4yo was hugely impressive, giving the at-the-time-dominant Paddington, a serious test.

    In total, Facteur Cheval has run four times away from French soil, and only a rather disappointing outing with sixth in June’s Queen Anne was the sole blot. Performances aside, the stats still read as winless on UK turf.

    Third in a second crack at Glorious Goodwood back in August, performances on firmer ground have proved his mettle, but it is on the softer ground where his best trips have been.

    In his six career wins, four have been on soft or good to soft ground and once, in the 2022 Prix Perth at Saint Cloud, on heavy turf.

    If the weather plays ball on Saturday – and the rain is expected to arrive for the weekend – Facteur Cheval could be in business. Saturday could perhaps be his best chance of a British win yet, doing so at the very top.

     

    Charyn of fire

    For Charyn, the 2024 season has been a rousing success, and a third Group 1 success to end the campaign would be the cherry on the cake.

    Both Charyn and Facteur Cheval are now familiar foes and this will be the third time they lock horns.

    As documented above, Charyn came third in last year’s Sussex Stakes, behind both the latter and Paddington, whilst the Queen Anne Stakes in June saw Roger Varian the victor – Cheval coming home only sixth.

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    That result is reflected in the markets, but the firmer ground is now a distant memory. Nevertheless, Charyn and Silvestre De Sousa are four from six this year.

    Beaten into second last time out in the Prix de Moulin on Arc weekend, that run was on juicier ground, indeed, the 4yo is yet to run on heavy ground in 17 career runs.

    If the rain that is promised falls in decent amounts, the ground could yet prove an issue.

     

    A challenge?

    Of the other 11 runners still set to line-up at time of writing, Simon and Ed Crisford’s 12/1 hopeful, Quddwah, is another contender with an excellent record in 2024.

    Having won his first four career outings, including on a debut appearance at Royal Ascot, the colt’s first defeat was inflicted by, yes, Charyn, in beating the son of Kingman into fourth, but with greater experience on softer ground, can make a better fist of it here.

    Meanwhile, Checkandchallenge has just two wins to his name since August 2022, after a rather chequ-ered season, including something of a no-show in the Wolferton.

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    However, post-gelding, the results have been much improved with a third in the Strensall Stakes at Doncaster, coming here a runner-up to Skellet last month at Sandown.

    In the case of this particular 5yo, William Knight has not seen his runner win since the final race of last term at Newmarket, but on that very day, the ground was closer to heavy.

    With that considered and his short-term improvement, punters could swing on the side of Checkandchallenge even to place at an inviting 25/1.

     

    The 2024 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes takes place at Ascot as part of Qipco Champions Day on Saturday, race time 3:15pm.

  • Qipco Champions Day | Calandagan Has Ground For Champion Stakes Hope

    Qipco Champions Day | Calandagan Has Ground For Champion Stakes Hope

    As the nights draw in and the Autumn leaves fall, the final official act of the flat season takes place this weekend at Ascot, going out in style with Qipco Champions Day.

    With five British Champions contests on Saturday’s glittering slate, the cream of the season’s racing comes together.

    In the first of two races under the spotlight this weekend, we look to the Qipco Champion Stakes over 1m2f, with Ecomonics 6/4f with Unibet to give both Tom Marquand and William Haggas a repeat from 2020 on Addeybb.

    However, with Autumn’s arrival, so too does the softer ground and with the going somewhat questionable, has Calandagan come into the picture?

     

    Ecomonics in demand

    Focussing first on the bookies’ pick, it’s now four wins in five for the son of Night of Thunder.

    After debuting last November at HQ, the 3yo colt is unbeaten in four this term, including the Dante and last time out taking the Irish Champion Stakes.

    Beating Auguste Rodin by a neck at Leopardstown, 2024 has been as impressive a full debut season as there can, and, has been.

    On paper, it is hard to look past Economics; indeed, to use parlance of his moniker, the colt is supplying the results his demand is bringing.

    A note of caution, however.

    His last three wins have all come on good ground. Furthermore, if we look at a predicted going for the weekend, the turf could be very tacky and may be closer to heavy going.

    Conditions – albeit as a debutant – he could only finish fourth in.

    Of course, the same concerns were expressed over City Of Troy and firmly consigned to the scrapheap, but the Champion Stakes feels like a different race. Certainly a more balanced one.

     

    Calandagan challenge

    So what of Calandagan’s chances of toppling the favourite? In short, they look appealing.

    Gelded after a debut run last August at Deauville, Henri Graffard’s likeable individual has won four of the last six – three of five this term.

    It was his victory in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot that set tongues wagging – not least the soundbites of his trainer – that Calandagan could be on to something good.

    A possibility further emphasised in the most spectacular of ways, pushing City Of Troy all the way in the Juddmonte Stakes last time out, runner-up to Aidan O’Brien’s dominator by just a single length.

    The 3yo could not make it four wins on the trot – coincidentally the record his rival holds – but his reputation was still gleaming.

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    In terms market going, Economics is unlikely to sway from the running as the race favourite, but it is worth noting that far, far bigger favourites have failed in this contest.

    In particular, only two years ago as 1/4f Baaeed was shocked by 10/1 Bay Bridge, whilst in both 2021 and 2020, Sealiway and Addeybb fetched prices of at least 9/1.

    Returning finally to the potential going for Saturday, Calandagan has proven a liking for all ground, but arguably, his best runs have come on heavier decks, winning impressively both at Longchamp and Saint Cloud.

    With the ground already soft, the ground could dry somewhat on Thursday, but with rain set to arrive late on Friday into race day, punters are still looking at a heavy ground prognosis.

    In summary, yes, Economics is the pick for many, but Calandagan could quite easily and once again, upset the form book.

     

    The 2024 Qipco Champion Stakes takes place at Ascot on Saturday, race time 3:55pm

  • British Champions Day 2024 | Ante-post Angle

    British Champions Day 2024 | Ante-post Angle

    British Champions Day sends the UK Flat season off into the sun for another year as the nights get longer and the jumps get more prominent.

    Saturday’s fixture looks exciting on paper, and at this early ante-post stage, two horses running in the British Champions Sprint Stakes have caught my eye.

    Below, I explain why.

     

    1:55 Ascot – Bucanero Fuerte @ 25/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    It’s fair to say that Bucanero Fuerte has had his fair share of unpredictable issues this season.

    He won on his seasonal reappearance when giving three pounds away to the subsequent Group 3 winner Givemethebeatboys before sustaining a setback due to travel complications at Royal Ascot.

    Running after a long break in the Group 1 Sprint Cup Stakes and then over five furlongs eight days later in the Group 1 Flying Five Stakes can, in my eyes, be forgiven.

    Looking back on last season, the Wootton Bassett colt won in soft conditions on debut before winning the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes three starts later over six furlongs.

    On paper, beating the subsequent four-time Group 1 winner Porta Fortuna by four lengths is great form.

    His juvenile form also got a boost at the end of 2023 when Unquestionable, a horse he beat in the Group 2 Railway Stakes, went on to win the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in November.

    In the days leading up to Ascot on Saturday, I can envisage a market move coming for Bucanero Fuerte as a stiff six furlongs on slightly softer ground should suit well.

     

    1:55 Ascot – Beauvatier @ 12/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    Speaking of classy individuals, Beauvatier certainly ticks plenty of boxes.

    Connections have campaigned him to suggest he’s full of quality as he ran in the French 2000 Guineas on his second start of this season before engaging in three further Group 1 contests.

    The best of the bunch came most recently where he finished an eye-catching third to Ramatuelle, third in the hot Newmarket 1000 Guineas earlier this season, and Kinross in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret.

    As a juvenile, he chased home Rosallion and Unquestionable in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere and he came from a similar early position as Rosallion to stay on through the line.

    He’s clearly not an easy animal to win with as connections drop him well off the pace frequently to try and settle him. He was rather keen in the French Guineas, after all.

    However, much like Bucanero Fuerte, a testing six on similarly testing ground should work on paper.

    Interestingly, seven of the last 10 winners of this race had won over seven furlongs before success in this six-furlong contest, so a sprinter who has a bit of extra stamina in the locker is preferable.

    This stat points positively to a few in this year’s race, notably this French raider.

  • Chepstow Jumps Season Opener Day 2 | Liking Liari

    Chepstow Jumps Season Opener Day 2 | Liking Liari

    Yesterday, day one of the Chepstow Jumps Season Opener reminded me of one cruel fact. October is tough.

    One can study pedigrees, form, or ground conditions, but if a horse isn’t ready, they aren’t ready.

    Equally, they could be ready, but that horse could do something uncharacteristic on their first public outing for many months.

    From the two Chepstow fancies yesterday, Ryan’s Rocket didn’t perform anywhere near his known form, which you can’t predict, and Moon Hunter was bumped along for the majority of his race.

    Anyway, we move on to today with some good action over jumps and on the Flat.

     

    2:15 Chepstow – Liari @ 5/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    I’ve liked Liari all week, and I’m not ditching him at the 11th hour.

    The form of Paul Nicholls’ horses is a worry based on the performances shown yesterday, but this race looks perfect for him, and he’s probably been targeted for it.

    He won his first three starts for Nicholls last year, the second of which impressively as battled well at Aintree to see off the highly touted Knight Of Allen.

    He then defied a penalty to beat Roaring Legend comfortably on much better ground at Musselburgh before disappointing massively in the Boodles at Cheltenham.

    That wasn’t his full ability, and I believe a mark of 134 is still lenient for him.

     

    2:40 York – Orazio @ 16/1 with Bet365 (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    I truly, honestly, wholeheartedly believed that I had stepped away from the Orazio cliff.

    I left him alone at Ascot in July and I did the same at Ayr last time out, and on both occasions, he failed to hit the frame.

    So, you would imagine that my brain would leave him alone until further notice, right?

    Well, that notice came around sooner than I expected because I’m backing him today.

    His mark of 101 doesn’t make him chucked in, but he is clearly effective off this mark having stayed on like a steam train off 100 in the most recent Wokingham at Royal Ascot.

    Furthermore, the form of his third in the Listed Cammidge Trophy continues to look very good as the winner, Montassib, won the recent Group 1 Sprint Cup while the fourth, Adaay In Devon, has won two subsequent Listed races.

    I think he is ground versatile, but he’s probably a little bit more effective on a slower surface, so the soft ground at York will suit.

    Speaking of York, low draws dominated the five-furlong handicap at the track yesterday, so his break from stall five should work.

    Like I say every time he runs, I think there’s a lot going for him and he is classy. Off the cliff I go!

     

    3:30 Chepstow – Into The Park @ 13/2 with Bet365 (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    I like the unexposed profile of Into The Park in the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle and his price is rather nice.

    On hurdles debut, he chased down Tutti Quanti (an unexposed horse to follow from the Paul Nicholls yard) and Joyeuse (from the family of EPATANTE) at Taunton when giving plenty of weight away.

    On his next start, he bolted up at Newbury and the fourth, Alnilam, has won two novice hurdles since, earning himself a rating of 125.

    Furthermore, on his handicap debut off a mark of 120, he won snugly in a race that received a form boost thanks to Lallygag (fifth).

    It’s a tough race, but I think there are plenty of upsides for Into The Park.

     

    4:00 Chepstow – Jetoile @ 13/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The John Ayres Memorial Handicap Chase is a fascinating race as plenty in the race deserve respect, but Jetoile should go well fresh.

    He won the Old Roan Chase off a one-pound lower mark on his first start of last season and Al Dancer, Tommy’s Oscar, and Hang In There went on to frank the form.

    Running well fresh is a trait that Jetoile possesses as he nearly beat Aucunrisque on chase debut in 2022 and his hurdles debut at Cheltenham was solid in 2021.

    His prominent racing style is likely to suit as it was hard to get into races yesterday, and he is giving Daryl Jacob is only ride on the card.

     

    4:35 Chepstow – Sail Away @ 12/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    After today is through, I could wince at the thought of cliff horses because Sail Away is a horse I have a soft spot for.

    He served the column well at the end of the 2022/23 season when bolting up at Ayr in a novice handicap chase off 136, beating Forward Plan who has since improved 13lbs having won two valuable handicap chases.

    The way he made all and jumped from fence to fence under Bridget Andrews was thoroughly impressive, and he did that thanks to his preferred good ground which he’ll get today.

    A few of his subsequent runs last season were disappointing, but some of his efforts on a faster surface warrant respect, notably his run in the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase when behind Forward Plan again and the subsequent Bet365 Gold Cup runner-up Annual Invictus.

    Less than a month later, he finished fourth of four in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase in order to prepare him for the Aintree Grand National meeting which he never got to because of sustained rain.

    He was only beaten by 10 and a half lengths that day, a quite remarkable effort considering the horses ahead of him (Pic D’Orhy, Ahoy Senor, and L’Homme Presse) are, in my eyes, bonified Grade 1 horses.

    Harry Atkins takes off a valuable seven pounds, so with a current workable mark of 140 and a better surface, he has every right to win this race.

  • Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part Two

    Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part Two

    It’s the busiest Saturday in the Autumn as we have three massive meetings to cover. At Newmarket it’s the future champions’ weekend and the Cesarewitch. One tip from York, where we have their finale meeting. And then head west to Wales to find the jumps season opener. Tips from all three meetings on a busy weekend.

     

    Newmarket

    It’s Not Winter Yet

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    3:00 – Dewhurst Stakes (GROUP ONE) – The Lion In Winter @ 10/11 (General)

    I was incredibly taken when seeing him last time out in the Acomb Stakes at York. It’s never really known as a trial race, but sometimes it is used before races like the Champagne Stakes or the National in Ireland. The Lion In Winter has been given a good break since then, and the form has worked out perfectly. Steady on with backing him for the 2000 Guineas yet, but I feel he has this race in the bag.

     

    And Are We?

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    3:40 – Ceasrewitch Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Ndaawi @ 12/1 (General)

    An incredibly competitive handicap, but my main pick has been let off lightly. Ndaawi ran an impressive second to Nurburgring in the Galway hurdle, but is down a pound for running seventh in the Ascot Stakes on ground he didn’t like. With ground like this in the Autumn, he can make the light weight on his back work. Jumps trainers are getting an ever increasing affection for this race, like Willie and Emmet Mullins, etc.

    Talking of the latter, Jacovec Cavern represents one of the fancier being backed for the race. He finished close up to Busselton at the Galway Festival, which is often a great pointer to the latter Autumn marathons. He’s only been risen three pounds for his close run back in July and as a result is right down the weights. Hayley Turner can deliver on a big day and make it back-t-back wins in the race for E. Mullins at 13/2 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred).

    One who is surprisingly well-in on the handicap is Premiere Ligne. He’s been incredibly consistent all season, with one win and five places to his name, four of them seconds. He hasn’t been beaten by more than two lengths in his previous six runs and comes from the Cesarewitch Trial. An even bigger plus is the five pounds been taken off by an in-form claimer. Great each-way price at 14/1 (General).

     

    York

    Strike It Hot

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    2:40 – Sprint Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Strike Red @ 13/2 (Betfred)

    A surprisingly disappointing season for Strike Red. He has only finished in the places once, but hasn’t had anything to show for last season’s performance. However, he loves York. One win and one place in four runs at the track shows that he isn’t bad. He also performs late on in his season, with four of his career wins coming in either September or October. He’ll love the soft ground and should finally get his elusive win. He also won this race in 2022 off a pound lower mark.

    The Bell Conductor may have most of his wins over five furlongs, but shaped well when winning over six at Chester last time out. He has a clear preference for soft ground and has progressed well enough to this level. He’s only been raised two pounds for the run and has a nice draw towards the stand side, which usually is a slight bias on soft ground. Well worth 25/1 (General).

    Hyperfocus is also one not to discount. It was a similar story last year when he finished second, despite the long odds, and history might repeat itself. Plus the softer it is for him, the better. He has won twice this season, albeit at class four level, but it shows that the 10 year-old has some fight in him left, and fought for second off a three pound higher mark last year. I’m not abandoning him at 33/1 (General).

     

    Chepstow

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    Beach Baby

    2:45 – Tom Malone Bloodstock Novices’ Chase (Listed) – Springwell Bay @ 7/2 (General)

    It seemed the natural progression for Springwell Bay to go over the bigger obstacles after a great season. The former staying hurdler drops back in trip, but should progress further in time. Another benefit is having Jonjo (& AJ) O’Neill as the trainer, with Jonjo, in the last five seasons, one of the more prolific trainers in Monmouthshire. Good pedigree for fences, he should be perfect first time out in the Autumn.

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part One

    Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part One

    It’s the busiest Saturday in the Autumn as we have three massive meetings to cover. At Newmarket it’s the future champions’ weekend. One tip from York, where we have their finale meeting. And then head west to Wales to find the jumps season opener. Tips from all three meetings on a busy weekend.

     

    Newmarket

    A Magical Dance

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    3:35 – Fillies’ Mile (GROUP ONE) – Ballet Slippers @ 14/1 (General)

    Writing this, I am still racking my brains over why Ryan Moore has ditched Ballet Slippers in favour of January. Ballet Slippers has soft ground form, which could be useful at this time of year. She’s bred magnificently out of the champion Magical and by super sire Dubawi, and her pedigree is top notch. And the form from her Ascot maiden has been franked when the second went and won last week at Haydock. She has the perfect blueprint to win this race and is an unbelievable price.

     

    York

    Who Are Ya?

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    2:40 – William Hill Finale Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Who’s Glen @ 13/2 (General)

    This small field looks a bit competitive, and I think I’ve spotted some value. Who’s Glen ran a very long way clear of a similar distance at Chester last time out, and won by 14 lengths. The handicapper has given him a fair weight to carry. He’s also trained by York’s current top trainer, Andrew Balding, who is currently +30 to £1 this season. An incredible record and has the beating of the top two in the market.

     

    Chepstow

    Blast Off

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    3:15 – Unibet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Ryan’s Rocket @ 2/1 (General)

    At long last, the jumps are finally back! With a tricky little contest to get us underway. With no Paul Nicholls featuring, the winner could come from anywhere. But I think Ryan’s Rocket has every right to be favourite. He’s got plenty of form in the book, particularly from his maiden win at Taunton. He’s a half-brother to former Fergal O’Brien hurdler Greenlagh Girl, who is now a stayer of point-to-points. The only way is up for this exciting gelding.

     

    The Best Boy

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    3:50 – Unibet Veterans’ H’cap Chase – Good Boy Bobby @ 100/30 (William Hill)

    We love the old boys do their thing in these veterans’ chases. And one horse looks primed for this opening bout. Good Boy Bobby won this race off a pound lower mark last year, so is well-handicapped. His record fresh is seven from 12, and his record in October is four from six. To make that even more impressive, he’s unbeaten at the track in his three starts. Not just a good boy, but a good bet.

    Another Chepstow lover is Wayfinder. In 2022, he completed a hattrick at the track, and has since not been able to replicate that form. But he still boasts a four wins from nine starts record, which also includes two seconds. He has a decent record fresh and acts well early on in the season. Still a bit of value at 13/2 (William Hill).

     

    Best of Luck!