Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Cheltenham November Meeting Day 1 | Buddy up

    Cheltenham November Meeting Day 1 | Buddy up

    The next three days at the Cheltenham November Meeting is always a good weekend for jumps fans

    Yes, the field sizes have fallen short due to good ground, but we still have some classy horses to shout about with Jonbon and Potters Charm.

    So, here are my fancies for day one.

     

    1:10 Cheltenham – Littlefoot @ 20/1 with Bet365 (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The British handicapper has been harsh to Littlefoot by giving him six pounds just for crossing the Irish Sea, but I think there’s enough in his form book to suggest he can outrun his odds.

    This selection is based purely on form as he finished a nose second to Lucky Lyreen who is now rated 133 on bumper debut in December 2022.

    After that, he finished second to the now 150-rated chaser Nick Rockett and second to the three-time Grade 1 winner Dancing City.

    That bumper form in early 2023 is nice, and he went on to run well in a bumper behind Walk Away Harry at the 2023 Punchestown Festival.

    He found himself squeezed between runners that day, but all the right horses (Irish Panther, Dr Eggman, Lecky Watson, and He’s My Hero) finished ahead of him that day.

    Two starts ago, he broke his maiden at Ballinrobe off a very slow pace before finishing a promising third in handicap company in September.

    The cheekpieces that were first applied two starts ago remain for this weekend’s challenge, and you get the impression that this has been a plan considering his regular rider is the conditional jockey Liam McKenna.

    He needs to show he can handle this company, but with his age and profile, he’s not the worst 20/1-shot in the world.

     

    1:45 Cheltenham – Buddy One @ 7/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Buddy One was the wrong price earlier this week, and I explained this on both X and the Only Fools Love Horses podcast.

    His current price of 7/2 is probably about right if not a touch too big for a horse of his ability.

    He is the only one of these horses to run well in Grade 1 hurdle events, notably in the Stayers’ Hurdle, Liverpool Hurdle, and Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown.

    Considering he gets 3lbs and 5lbs in weight from Hyland and Springwell Bay respectively, he’s definitely best at the weights.

    Furthermore, of his three trips to Cheltenham, he’s won a handicap on the Old Course, finished third in the 2023 Martin Pipe, and finished fourth in the already mentioned 2024 Stayers’ Hurdle.

    So, he likes Cheltenham, and he likes good ground.

    That’s because he won on chase debut on the surface earlier this season and he finished second to Sa Fureur in a Grade 3 novice hurdle on good in February 2023.

    It was bold from connections to send him into open company against Heart Wood and Corbetts Cross last time out, and although his jumping wasn’t amazing, making all at a slow pace on soft ground probably didn’t suit him.

    I half believe connections have planned Buddy One for this race due to his liking for Prestbury Park, so with the class he has under the bonnet, he should go well here.

     

    2:55 Cheltenham – Busselton @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Joseph O’Brien revealed in his stable tour with Sporting Life that Busselton has schooled over cross country fences recently, so I hope he takes to the course at Cheltenham on Friday.

    O’Brien has kept him fit through the summer with four runs since June, one of which was a winning one.

    That’s a positive, and he also likes good ground based on his previous form.

    His notable efforts include his second in the 2022 Blazers Handicap on good to yielding, a race that saw Fan De Blues (the third) improve to win two more handicap chases.

    After that, he won the Kerry National over three miles on good ground when Hewick, a subsequent King George winner, fell at the last.

    On those pieces of form, a mark of 141 is workable this weekend in what looks a winnable race.

    Just looking at the head of the market, Conflated, as much as he’s a decent animal, would have concerns on good ground and he’s not a guaranteed stayer over an extended 3m5f.

    Sweet David could cause some issues as he has some nice French form with my beloved Roi Mage and he’s a cross country specialist.

    However, out of not knowing too much about him, Busselton is my fancy.

  • Four To Follow – Badgers Hunting

    Four To Follow – Badgers Hunting

    Don’t be misled by the title! We are hunting for value in the Badger Beers Handicap Chase at Wincanton. Plus, there’s the Grand Sefton over the National fences at Aintree and the dying lights of the flat turf at Doncaster with the November handicap.

     

    Wincanton

    Boom Bet

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    2:23 – Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – Boombawn @ 6/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Despite being run at Paul Nicholl’s local track, Boombawn offered much more last time out at Chepstow, Running against the Nicholls’ trained Insurrection, Boombawn looked to travel on strongly after the last. Insurrection looked to offer little, but Boombawn hunted down his rival but denied by a neck in the closing stages. Dan Skelton is in electric form and can’t see any negatives, for this horse.

     

    The Nicholls’ King

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    3:30 – 63rd Badger Beers Handicap (Premier H’cap) – Mofasa @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    It may look a depleted field for Wincanton’s biggest race, but I’ve been hunting some potential value in the race. And Mofasa looks a great bet. For Nicholls, who has won this race four times in the past ten, he’s back on a winning mark. He won a novice handicap chase off 130, and a three-pound drop sems more than enough for a horse who never shows his true potential until early on in a season.

    There’s also worth a watch on Remastered, the former Coral Gold Cup runner-up. Now 11, he won over three and a quarter miles last time out on this track, on good ground, which proves he has a winning desire. He’s only a pound lower than a previous winning mark but expect him to go hunting the field. A definite chance, in a low-class field, 10/1 (William Hill).

     

    Aintree

    Frero Rocher!

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    2:40 – Boylesports Grand Sefton H’cap Chase – Frero Banbou @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    Despite Venetia Williams’ horses preferring soft ground, Frero Banbou has proven a liking for better ground. But crucially, he is three pounds lower than when placing third in last year’s contest. With experience of the ferocious National fences, and good early season record, Frero Banbou will make a good account of himself.

    Surprisingly, Vintage Fizz makes appeal in this contest. He’s a two-and-a-half-mile specialist, albeit at low level. He came close in the Summer, plus last time out when less than four lengths behind the winner, finishing fourth, at Wetherby. He’s down to a competitive mark and will easily deal with the ground. It will be interesting to see how he copes now in a higher grade. 33/1 (General).

     

    Doncaster

    November Hunting

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    3:45 – November Handicap – Valvano @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    The final big flat handicap of the season sees the end of the turf season around the country. And Valvano can finish it off with a bang. He remains relatively unexposed and steps up in trip to a mile-and-a-half. The other positive is the winner of his handicap at York, Bolster, went and won a Listed race at Newmarket which boosts his form. Plus, his trainer is operating at 34%, a terrific strike rate at the close of season.

    An amazing fact, Stressfree hasn’t finished outside of the top three in his past seven runs. An incredible record and has shown a liking for soft ground on the way too. He’s been raised a total of 10 pounds in his past six runs, which means he has progressed at a steady rate for David O’Meara. He finished ahead of Valvano then third over at this course two weeks ago. Definite claims at 9/1 (William Hill).

    Lord Melbourne may be a bit of an outside chance in this race, but with the in form conditional Jack Doughty, he’s now two pounds lower than his previous wining mark. He, too, finished behind Bolster at Epsom at the end of May. He then progressed from there on in and can offer almost a second choice for Ralph Beckett in the November handicap. 16/1 (General).

  • Aintree Grand Sefton Day | Aintree is an Art

    Aintree Grand Sefton Day | Aintree is an Art

    Djelo came close to landing yesterday’s Haldon Gold Cup for the column but JPR One got the better of him, so hopefully we get the rub of the green on Aintree Grand Sefton Day.

    Yesterday was a tough one for jumps fans, highlighted by the walkover in the three-mile novice chase.

    There’s not a magical answer that will solve the problems in national hunt racing, but after days like yesterday, it’s almost worth praying for one to fall into our lap.

    Anyway, let’s dive in.

     

    1:08 Wincanton – Beau Balko @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    The first chase race of the day from Wincanton has attracted just five runners and I think Beau Balko can win for Paul Nicholls.

    Starting with his form, he nearly beat the subsequent Greatwood Hurdle winner Iberico Lord in a Stratford novice hurdle before finishing fifth in a hot renewal of the 2023 Novices’ Championship Final at Sandown.

    Those two efforts came in soft conditions, but he has won on good to soft twice before and run well on a fast surface.

    He jumps fences nicely and he was a good third at Kempton in March.

    That piece of form is one I have an eye on as the winner, Persian War, will win a nice handicap chase this season and the second, Soul Icon, has improved 11lbs since.

    Soul Icon also has Graded form with the Grade 1 runner-up Master Chewy and Grade 1 winner Nickle Back.

    With a run under his belt for race fitness last month, I’m hoping a step up in trip can encourage improvement. This is also a race Nicholls has won four times before across the last 10 renewals

     

    1:30 Aintree – Wiillaston @ 9/1 with Ladbrokes (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    Willaston showed enough on his first start of the season to suggest he’s back to his usual self, and he deserves plenty of respect here.

    Last season, he beat Bold Endeavour twice, the latter off 126 at Haydock when travelling notably well, who reappears here off a one-pound higher mark.

    On that form, he has the beating of him, and other bits of form give him a great chance on Saturday off his workable rating of 126.

    In April 2023, he beat Lallygag, who has improved three pounds since after two wins, Supreme Gift, who has improved 10 pounds, and Scarface, a decent novice handicap chaser last season.

    His first run of this season came over 2m4f, so this return to three miles will suit and the good ground is also a positive.

     

    2:40 Aintree – Authorized Art @ 20/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    He’s not chucked in, he’s not a well-handicapped horse, and this is his first stab at the Grand National fences, but I think Authorized Art is worth a bet in the Grand Sefton.

    Carrying top weight in handicaps like this isn’t an easy task, but it’s only 2m5f and it’s on the better side of good to soft.

    He also has previous experience at carrying larger racing weights.

    He lobbed around Punchetsown in May when third to the well-handicapped Lets Go Champ and Must Be Obeyed off 11-11 and he was fourth in the 2023 Kerry National with 11-8 on his back.

    All the right horses were around him that day, notably Desertmore House, Salvador Ziggy, Foxy Jacks, The Goffer, Chemical Energy, Ain’t That A Shame, Life In The Park, and Hurricane Georgie.

    A mark of 153 is on the steep side, but Caoilin Quinn claims a valuable three pounds off his back and better ground works for him nicely,

    He beat the now 158-rated Ash Tree Meadow by nine lengths in a Grade 3 novice chase two years ago on good to yielding and he had a rating of 151 when third at Punchestown earlier this year.

    After a good pipe opener for his new yard last month when third to Rubaud over hurdles, he has the right profile to go well here.

     

    3:30 Wincanton – Lord Accord @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    He’s not a value bet in the Badger Beer, but there’s plenty to like about Lord Accord.

    Firstly, he was second in the race two years ago when beaten by the mighty Frodon, and that came off a mark of 136.

    Furthermore, he won at Cheltenham off 131 one month previously and he won off 130 in October 2021, so today’s chase mark of 128 had him well-treated.

    Furthermore, he’s race-fit after two runs already this season, and he’s one who will appreciate the good ground.

    Because of his age, the handicapper only raised him five pounds for his 16-length success last month when he could have brandished him with a much harsher penalty.

    All in, he has a solid chance and Neil Mulholland has targetted this race for a while, so he should go close.

  • Haldon Gold Cup Day | Venetia Wonderland

    Haldon Gold Cup Day | Venetia Wonderland

    The Haldon Gold Cup looks like a fascinating race this year with potential Grade 1 horses looking to kick their seasons off on the front foot.

    Below, I voice my thoughts on the race with one further bet at Exeter to mention.

    But first, a look back on last week.

    Successes with Our Champ and The Real Whacker put the column in profit by 9.3pts (15% ROI) for November and 45.85pts since March 2024 (10% ROI).

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    2:25 Exeter – Djelo @ 5/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’ll start this piece on the Haldon Gold Cup with a caveat.

    How far Etalon can continue to improve is a big unknown, and his form of beating Martator (now rated 140) is solid, but the reason I’m leaving him alone is due to ground conditions (unraced on good) and the fact it’s his first run of the season as well.

    He is a danger in my book, but Djelo has plenty of upsides that are hard to ignore.

    He gets two pounds from JPR One, the now second favourite, yet his form is arguably better on paper.

    On seasonal reappearance last year, he beat Master Chewy when getting two pounds in weight. Master Chewy went on to bolt up in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase before nearly beating Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase.

    In his next two starts, Djelo beat the subsequent winner Persian Time at Newbury before smashing up the now 145-rated Kandoo Kid in the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase.

    That win came on good to soft and the race was run just 6.77 seconds slower than average, so the ground was fairly fast.

    He was disappointing at the Aintree Grand National Festival, but that was his seventh run of the season and it came after a respectable third in a hot renewal of the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase.

    Venetia Williams hasn’t had too many runners recently, but of her four representatives over the last two weeks, Martator won and Galop De Chasse finished second.

    That yard form is promising, and I think he’s the best horse in this race.

     

    3:35 Exeter – Coco Mademoiselle @ 2/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    I always try to find the big-priced value, but Coco Mademoiselle appeals the most in the penultimate race.

    Only a few here are race-fit, notably Tightenourbelts, Tea Clipper, and Coco Mademoiselle, and while the former has a fair chased based on the form book, the stable form of Emma Lavelle is a worry.

    The favourite, however, is trained by Dan Skelton who is in sound form at the moment (26% strike rate) and her run at Worcester 42 days ago will put on spot on for today.

    The third, Weveallbeencaught, ran a solid race behind Lisnamult Lad at the Cheltenham October Meeting to frank the form as well.

    She gets five pounds from Beachcomber and seven pounds from Tightenourbelts which looks good based on her form in the book.

    Four starts ago, she gave seven pounds away to Springtime Promise – a subsequent Grade 2 winner – in a Huntington novice hurdle before she finished the season with a second in a valuable mares’ handicap hurdle at Ayr

    From that race, Saylavee (3rd) beat the smart Zanahiyr over fences, Ottizzini (4th) bolted up at Ayr earlier this month, and Pink In The Park (5th) won a Listed chase yesterday.

    Off 122, she can easily improve over fences and will strip fitter for her run in September.

  • Breeders Cup Day 2 Frosty reception

    Breeders Cup Day 2 Frosty reception

    Yesterday at the Breeders’ Cup didn’t go to plan for the column, but the fancies over jumps performed well today.

    The Real Whacker and Our Champ delivered at Wetherby and Ascot respectively to put the column in good profit for the weekend.

    So, let’s roll on with today’s Breeders’ Cup selections.

    19:00 Del Mar – Frost At Dawn @ 20/1 with Bet365 (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    I’m not an expert when it comes to dirt racing, but Frost At Dawn is certainly interesting in the Filly & Mare Sprint.

    The booking of Frankie Dettori is eye-catching and she has some nice form in the book, notably when winning in Meydan earlier this year.

    She beat Star Of Mystery that day who went on to place in two Group 1s and a Group 2 subsequently.

    She won easily that day and the fourth, Ponntos, was a fine fifth in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes subsequently.

    Although Frost At Dawn has raced mainly on the turf, she has some fine experience on dirt, notably when second at Meydan in December.

    I think she has plenty of ability and her form is working out nicely.

    She also has a nice draw in one and gets weight from her elders, so she’s worth a chance at a big price.

    21:01 Del Mar – Emily Upjohn @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    It’s a case of last chance saloon for Emily Upjohn this evening, though there is reason to think she can return to her best.

    Firstly, Frankie Dettori returns to the saddle and secondly, she gets to run on quick ground.

    When was the last time she had these conditions? At Epsom last year when rocketing home in the Group 1 Coronation Cup.

    The second, Westover, won a Group 1 on his next start and then finished second in both the King George at Ascot and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.

    As for her form this season, she travelled like the winner in the Yorkshire Oaks but didn’t find much. Her finishing effort was disappointing, but she arguably got to the front too early that day.

    On her last start, she finished a staying on third to the subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking, so the form is there.

    22:25 Del Mar – Content @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    There’s a chance that Content could be too good in the Filly & Mare.

    As mentioned, she won the Yorkshire Oaks on good to firm ground and she also finished fourth at the Breeders’ Cup last year on firm ground.

    So, there’s hope she’ll handle the ground nicely, and there’s a lot to like about her form.

    She finished a staying on third to Bluestocking and Emily Upjohn in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh in June.

    Furthermore, Mistral Star, who finished fourth in the Yorkshire Oaks, finished third in the Group 1 Prix de Royallieu to further frank the form of the race.

    She has a good chance tonight if she settles early as she can get quite hot-headed.

    23:45 Del Mar – Notable Speech @ 9/4 with Coral – 2pt Win

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    The Mile looks like a good race and Porta Fortuna is a formidable opponent, but Notable Speech has greatly impressed me this season.

    His Guineas success speaks for itself, though it’s worth reminding what the form of the race looks like.

    Subsequently, Rosallion won two Group 1s, Haatem won the Group 3 Jersey Stakes, Ghostwriter finished third in Coral-Eclipse and Juddmonte International, and Inisherin won the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup.

    Notable Speech won a fine renewal of the Group 1 Sussex Stakes two starts later and the third, Facteur Cheval, chased home Charyn in the QEII last month.

    He looks like the type who will really appreciate fast-paced American racing as he has a high cruising speed and a good turn of foot.

    He’s smart, and I hope he shows that tonight.

  • Charlie Hall Chase Day | Bow to the Saint

    Charlie Hall Chase Day | Bow to the Saint

    It’s a big day of racing today as the Charlie Hall Chase takes centre stage before the action from Del Mar returns this evening.

    This article will highlight my bets for the domestic jumps action.

    Let’s dive in.

     

    2:05 Ascot – Saint Segal @ 11/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Starting at Ascot, a cliff horse will carry my money once again as Saint Segal runs in the two-mile handicap chase.

    The six-year-old ran in this race last year and looked like the winner before falling at the last fence, and the form of the contest was boosted subsequently as Boothill completed the season by finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase at Sandown.

    His rating is one pound lower this year and Jane Williams has targeted this race for a while.

    With a prep run under his belt, he should run well on his second start after a wind op.

     

    2:40 Down Royal – Hewick @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Some will call it bold to take on Gerri Colombe in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase, but there is reason to back Hewick.

    He has a run under his belt this season already and he’ll enjoy the good ground which is a small worry for the short-priced favourite.

    Furthermore, he doesn’t have to find too much on form to win as he was second to Fastorslow and Galopin Des Champs at Punchestown over an extended three miles and he beat a nice field in last year’s King George.

    With the uncertainties about Gerri Colombe on his first start of the season, Hewick looks like a sound bet at 5/1.

     

    2:58 Wetherby – The Real Whacker @ 15/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Today may very well be the day that The Real Whacker wins.

    He’s been my ultimate cliff horse since he won the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase in 2023 and has been expensive to follow.

    His form is well-known, but why should you back him today?

    Well, he’ll come on for his run in the Kerry National, he won on good ground in November 2022, and he gets weight from French Dynamite.

    With a few potentially needing the run, he has the ability to buck out from the front and put them all to the sword.

     

    3:15 Ascot – Our Champ @ 14/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Our Champ isn’t the best-handicapped horse we’ve ever seen, but he gets his conditions today and can show his talent in Berkshire.

    Chris Gordon got a nice prep run into him at Market Rasen in late September and Freddie Gordon returns to the saddle to claim five pounds off his official rating of 131.

    The six-year-old improved massively last year and he showed his ability when bolting up in the Sussex Champion Hurdle off 122.

    He likes good ground, and with the worry that a few in here may need the run, he should go well fresh.

  • Five To Follow – Back The Brits (Stateside Edition)

    Five To Follow – Back The Brits (Stateside Edition)

    Not only are we treated to the jumps, but we are treated to the best flat racing action in the world. An exceptional amount of talent is on offer as we head to Del Mar, California for the Breeders’ Cup, where the Brits will be wanting to take full glory.

     

    Mystery Solved

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    7:41 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (GRADE ONE) – Star Of Mystery @ 11/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    There’s one key factor as to why I don’t fancy any horse at single figure prices. They’re all drawn wide, which is a big no-no at Del Mar. Believing is also drawn in one, which isn’t as helpful as might think. So I’m settling for the Charlie Appleby-trained Star Of Mystery, who’s been consistent throughout the season.

    She finished third behind the well-fancied Cogburn in a Grade One at Santa Anita, then won a Grade Three over the same track and trip, before being touched off in a Grade Two at Keeneland. With a good draw today, she can fly home for the Brits

     

    An Old Favourite

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    9:01 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (GRADE ONE) – Emily Upjohn @ 4/1 (General)

    We relight an old fire today at Del Mar, as Frankie Dettori reunites with John Gosden and Emily Upjohn. There’s been no pazzaz with Gosden runners in the big races this season, and it looks like Dettori has left to bigger shoes to fill. But with a tried and tested combination, she may be ready to rock in what could be a swansong for the old mare.

    She hasn’t disgraced herself in her previous two starts. She’s been given a big form boost from her last start, as the top two replicated the finish in the Arc de Triomphe. She could roll back the years, and score another big prize for the Brits.

     

    Does He Win?

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    9:41 – Breeders’ Cup Classic (GRADE ONE)

    Is City Of Troy worth the hype? Has the Derby winner met a match in the fierece dirt competition America offers. The advantage has is that he is bred by Justify, and ever since a two-year-old, this has been the ultimate goal. He’s negotiated the tight twists of Epsom and has outclassed all before him.

    But, no American dirt experience. And, according to those who regularly view American racing, the kickback is fierce to the face. Plus he’s out of a Galileo mare, which means he’s mainly bred for turf. Juvenile horses grow to resemble their mothers, not their fathers. And one other key factor, regarding the best jockey in the world. Ryan Moore is 0/25 in American dirt races. A worrying factor.

    Does this mean that Fierceness, bought by Coolmore Stud in the recent days, stand a good a chance as any? Yes. Simply because he’s been aimed at the race, and is best suited to these conditions. Without City Of Troy, you’d be forgiven if this horse was odds-on.

    With City Of Troy in his race, it’s a case of see it and believe it. Or rather in this case, personally see it and believe that European horses hold zero advantage when it comes to American specialist races.

     

    One Last Try

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    10:25 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (GRADE ONE) – Content @ 7/2 (Boylesports)

    After a blowout on British Champions Day, where she was really unsuited by the slow pace, Content will end her busy campaign at the Breeders’ Cup. Although people do forget that she is a Group One winner. She won the Yorkshire Oaks in fine fashion, but wasn’t suited by the ground at Longchamp on her next start, and broke slowly. Today conditions will be in her favour and there’s more than likely to be a hot pace to latch onto.

     

    Fortuna Plenty

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    11:45 – Breeders’ Cup Mile (GRADE ONE) – Porta Fortuna @ 9/4 (General)

    This looks to be a cracker of a race. But can Notable Speech be trusted. He’s failed to show up twice this season, at Ascot and Longchamp and the reports are that he didn’t travel over well. However, with Porta Fortuna, she’s been electric, and consistent. Her last win at Leopardstown was nothing short of impressive, and with American owners, has every right to come here and take the last turf prize for the Brits.

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow – Whacker Job

    Four To Follow – Whacker Job

    With the jumps in full swing, we focus today on Wetherby for their highlight card of the year. The Charlie Hall Chase features a roll of honour full of racing legends, and this race has Bravemansgame, Conflated and The Real Whacker all involved. Whilst down at Ascot its big early season handicap action. A proper Saturday of racing awaits us.

     

    Wetherby

    Kat Got The Cream

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    2:22 – West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade Two) – Kateira @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    Dan Skelton is currently on red hot form. Operating at 29%, it seems that most of his horses can’t go wrong. And Kateira looks to be one who can’t go wrong. She produced a taking performance in a premier handicap hurdle at Aintree. She raced in the Listed Mares Hurdle last year, but stepping up to a more manageable distance and with a weight allowance, she had to be taken to win this.

     

    Taking A Whacker

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    2:58 – Charlie Hall Chase (Grade Two) – The Real Whacker @ 10/1 (General)

    Let’s talk about the opposition first. Paul Nicholls are not to be followed at this time of the season, and Bravemansgame has no win in last seven, despite what his trainer tells us. There’s also been no 10+ year old won the race since Grey Abbey in 2004. And the Irish only managed to crack the code for this race last year.

    That leaves me with The Real Whacker. He unseated midway through the Kerry National when going well. Today the ground will be to his liking, and the level of racing will also be up to his standard. The Real Whacker also receives weight from French Dynamite which is a bonus, who won’t be far away from the finish either.

     

    Ascot

    Patience of a Saint

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    2:05 – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Saint Segal @ 5/1 (General)

    A really nice contest to get the jumps action underway in Berkshire. But I’m opting with last year’s third, Saint Segal. He’s ran well the previous twice visits, including going well when falling here last November. He’s two pounds lower than his run in this contest last year, has a liking for good ground and is second up from a wind op. The signs point for the Saint.

     

    Champion Vintage

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    3:45 – Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Chianti Classico @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    Ultima winner Chianti Classico has been aimed at this race as his start off point for a potential tilt at the Grand National this year. He won at Ascot last year on good ground, and has a versatility for any ground after a stellar season. He steps down from a Grade One to handicap company, and despite carrying top weight he has plenty of talent to pull it off.

    Hidden Depths has also had a good Summer, picking up valuable handicap at Perth and beating a decent Skelton horse in Mylesfromwicklow. Good ground will suit and slips into this handicap at the bottom of the weights which should give him a fighting chance. Not to be underestimated at 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Aintree Old Roan Chase Day | Kamsinas can

    Aintree Old Roan Chase Day | Kamsinas can

    After two days of great racing at Cheltenham, Aintree’s Old Roan Chase Day headlines Sunday’s action on ITV and Racing TV.

    This game tames lions, so when you land a nice-priced winner once in a while, it’s only fair to celebrate within reason.

    Yesterday, Lisnamult Lad won at 20/1 and Givemefive landed the spoils at 7/2 to put the column in good profit for the weekend.

    Hoping to continue the form, here are today’s main plays.

     

    1:15 Aintree – Petit Tonnerre @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’m not a huge fan of backing Jonjo O’Neill-trained horses first-time-out, but it’s hard to leave Petit Tonnerre alone in the second at Aintree.

    Speaking of the stable’s form, a few of their horses have needed the run, but both Johnnywho and Anyharminasking have flown the flag for the stable in good races on their seasonal return this week.

    For a while, Petit Tonnerre was badly handicapped based on his French form of beating Heart Wood (now rated 151), but the handicapper has relented to give him a mark of 125 now.

    That’s 10lbs below his last winning mark (February 2022), 14lbs below his mark when second to Red Risk in November 2022, and 15lbs below the rating he had when seventh in the 2023 County Hurdle.

    During his time over fences last season, he finished second in a Grade 2 on his seasonal reappearance last year, so he does look extremely well-handicapped.

    He also won on his first start for the yard after a 165-day break and he placed on good ground in November 2022.

    Honestly, a mark of 125 should see him go very close if he’s ready to roll.

     

    2:25 Aintree – Torn And Frayed @ 5/2 with Bet365 – 1pt Win

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    It only feels like last week since Torn And Frayed won a valuable 2m4f handicap chase on Trials Day in January 2022, so it’s amazing to see him now in veterans’ races!

    I didn’t fancy him that day, but I remember reviewing the race as a very young lad! Just look at that haircut!

    Speaking of the race, that occurred on good ground which is similar conditions to today, and he won on good ground in a novice hurdle the season prior.

    He won off 131 on that day at Cheltenham, so today’s official rating of 126 makes him well-handicapped

    Furthermore, he runs well fresh as he finished a good third behind Annual Invictus on his seasonal reappearance in 2021 and, for a horse running after a 658-day break, his effort in the 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup was admirable too.

    He gets his ground today and could have the class edge against some more experienced rivals.

     

    2:42 Wincanton – Le Ligerien @ 9/2 with Bet365 – 1pt Win

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    Le Ligerien has a good record when fresh and this Unibet Middle Distance Chase Series Venerans’ Handicap Chase Qualifier looks like a winnable race.

    He won on yard debut for Joe Tizzard in February 2023 and his last two winning marks were 124 and 130, so today’s rating of 124 is workable.

    After his last win, which came in this middle distance series at Kempton, he ran a brilliant race off 135 at Cheltenham but didn’t stay up the hill.

    He’s seemingly in good form despite his age of 11, and he’s won on good ground four times before, so conditions should suit.

     

    3:35 Aintree – Kamsinas @ 5/1 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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    Although he has nearly top weight to carry, Kamsinas should have the class in the 2m handicap hurdle.

    This seven-year-old did really well last year for Fergal O’Brien, starting with a facile Worcester success before finishing second to Lookaway in the Grade 2 Sky Bet Novices’ Hurdle.

    The winner went on to finish second in the Greatwood, second in the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle, and third in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle.

    Furthermore, the third (Idy Wood) won off 120 on his chase debut this week, the fourth (Williethebuilder) is rated 125, the fifth (Toto Too) is rated 132, and the sixth (Act Of Authority) is rated 126.

    So, with a rating of 130, he should improve past this mark based on that form.

    After that race, he won the Grade 2 Newton Novices’ Hurdle when beating Making Headway (now rated 127) and I Love My Baie (now rated 130), so the form is solid.

    He won on good in February 2023 and this is one of his easiest races for a long time, so hopefully he can kickstart his season with a win today.

     

    4:08 Aintree – Siog Geal @ 5/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    It’s a rare selection from me in a bumper, especially for a horse on their first start, but I want to keep Siog Geal on my side.

    There are good rumours that she is showing pleasing signs at home, and the form of her four-and-a-half-length point-to-point success has worked out.

    The second, Jasmine d’Airy, bolted up on debut for Sam Curling at Tipperary and is now trained by Harry Derham after being sold for £120,000.

    Jasmine d’Airy also chased home The Big Westerner, Henry de Bromhead’s £120,000 purchase, on her final point-to-point start.

    As for Siog Geal’s pedigree, her dam is an unraced half-sister to a few half-decent Flat horses, notably Silver Quay who placed in a Class 2 handicap before going over obstacles.

    5/2 seems like a fair price for this debutante with good form in the book already.

  • Four To Follow – All Over The Place

    Four To Follow – All Over The Place

    Welcome back to the jumps, people! The most chaotic and most enjoyable time of the year. With Cheltenham already underway, it makes sense to focus in on some top class action there. But we don’t forget the last of the flat, with a Group One at Doncaster and two Group Three’s at Newbury. We’re up, down and all about on this Saturday.

     

    Cheltenham

    Headline Act

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    2:20 – William Hill Handicap Chase – Broadway Boy @ 3/1 (General)

    If there’s one thing I noticed on the Friday of the Showcase meeting at Cheltenham, it’s that front runners had a big advantage. Those who raced prominently were always in the finish. Combine those with a good record on good ground and first time out, and you’ll have your winner.

    Broadway Boy has more than those three factors in his favour. Add in three course wins (two over three miles) and a trainer who found two winners on Friday at Cheltenham, and you have your winner. Broadway Boy acts well on the ground and has a decent enough first-time out record, to make him the one to beat.

    Olly Murphy’s Chasing Fire will add stiff opposition. He goes second-season chasing this term and finished last year on a high with a win over three miles at Perth. That day was on soft, but he appears to be versatile on all ground, so good won’t be a worry. He’s only off six pounds higher than last time and ends up mid-division on the handicaps. Worth a chance, 9/1 (William Hill).

    Unanswered Prayers has been his namesake for almost two years, with no win in handicap company. But his last win came at Cheltenham in a novice chase on good ground. It seems a little harsh that the handicapper has risen him two pounds for finishing a one-and-a-half length second last time out, but he has an ok first-time out record. Plus, course experience, he has claims at 16/1 (General).

     

    The Moral HY Ground

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    4:05 – William Hill Novices’ Chase – Hyland @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Despite Nicky Henderson’s early season record this, and for previous seasons, Hyland looks laid out for this race. He runs well on good ground and is fresh from a 118-day break. His record fresh is a little inconsistent, but given the right ground he should act on it. He also has a bit of course and distance form after winning at Cheltenham over hurdles in a three-mile contest.

     

    Doncaster

    No More Line Judges

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    2:40 – William Hill Futurity Trophy (GROUP ONE) – Wimbledon Hawkeye @ 5/2 (General)

    With the news that there will be no line judges at the All-England Club in 147 years, and former champion Rafael Nadal retiring, you’d think that Wimbledon Hawkeye had destiny on his side.

    But his last win in a Group Two came at Newmarket came on soft ground when he wound up the Rowley hill in very good fashion. Albeit the form hasn’t been tested, he has won on soft ground which puts him at a major advantage to the others. He’s been a horse to watch this season, and could be well deserved of a Group One.

    Watch out for John & Thady Gosden trained Detain. Despite the pair’s comments that he may avoid this race, owners Juddmonte are confident enough to let him run for the first time on turf in this race. With the ground he’s run on so far, standard-to-slow, and he’s last seven length win, he’s caught eyes and ears, and may well be worth the 11/2 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Warning For All

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    3:10 – BetVictor Horris Hill Stakes (Group Three) – Yaroogh @ 11/4 (General)

    Despite Benevento having better form, he’s still two pounds lower in ratings than Yaroogh, who’s had a busy campaign. He clearly loves soft ground, after a May win at Haydock on soft (which has since been backed up), and last time out on heavy at Deauville in a Listed contest. He finally found true form winning by three-and-a-half lengths and can carry on, on heavy ground, today.

    His main danger will be Bob Mali. Bred from Sands Of Mali, he’s currently unbeaten from three runs, including two wins on heavy ground. The form from a conditions race at Salisbury last time out has seen the second place once more, which should be where this son of Passadouro end up. Definite potential at 6/1 (William Hill).