Category: Horse Racing

This weekend’s Coral Gold Cup isn’t a vintage renewal, but the two-day card at Newbury is ultimately interesting and open to placing a few bets on.

Before I dive into the selections, a quick review on the P&L.

This month, the P&L sits at +17.35 an ROI of 16.2%, leaving the total P&L at +53.9 with an ROI of 10.9%.

Right, that’s enough trumpeting for one day, here’s my fancies for Friday at Newbury.

 

12:45 Newbury – Kalif Du Berlais @ 11/8 with Coral – 2pt Win

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Look, this isn’t original, but I think a price of 11/8 is fair for Kalif Du Berlais.

I was really impressed by his chasing debut at Carlisle earlier this month which does seem strange to say considering he fell, but up to that point he looked quite professional for a four-year-old.

Paul Nicholls, knowing he okay from the incident, hasn’t wasted any time in getting him into handicap company because his mark of 135 (with the eight pound four-year-old allowance) looks nice.

As for his already established form, he beat Givemefive in the Adonis, who has since won the Masterson Holdings Hurdle, and Captain Marvellous, a facile winner at Warwick in October before sustaining a fatal injury.

He has the speed for this trip, Newbury is a fair track, and the ground works for him.

He’s an obvious favourite, but he’s also a horse I like a lot.

 

1:55 Newbury – Captain Teague @ 5/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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The Grade 2 John Francome Novices’ Chase is a fascinating race this year, but I think Paul Nicholls can repeat last year’s success with Captain Teague.

I know it’s easy to pick him because he beat The Jukebox Man, Johnnywho, and Masaccio in the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle last year, but I was actually a sceptic when it came to that performance for a long time.

I then watched the replay recently and thought he jumped sweetly on the whole from a prominent position, and his rivals had ample opportunity to pass him up the home straight.

He actually missed the third-last, and with The Jukebox Man, Johnnywho, and Lookaway right there, it would have been easy for him to come off the bridle and fade away.

However, Harry Cobden picked up the bridle quickly and he won nicely in the end.

He bolted up on chase debut at Exeter earlier this month (sorry, poor joke) and I think there are lots of upsides to him as a novice chaser this season.

I fear Johnnywho with his race fitness edge, though I do think Captain Teague is better, and I haven’t even needed to mention his 2023 Champion Bumper form with Fact To File, It’s For Me, Captain Cody, Lecky Watson, and Loughglynn yet.

Hopefully, he delivers on a big day for Paul Nicholls.

 

2:30 Newbury – Saint Segal @ 12/1 with William Hill (1pt EW) – 1pt EW

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Yes, I have booked the therapy session for Monday morning, and yes, I really don’t like owning money.

That’s right, Saint Segal is still on my nice list, though as we approach Christmas, he may well end up on the naughty list unless he starts repaying my faith.

I thought it would take a good horse to beat him at Ascot 27 days ago, and admittedly I was right as Martator (a subsequent facile 11-length winner on Betfair Chase day who is now rated 151) won, but it’s hard to make a case for the five other horses that crossed the line ahead of him that day.

Last time out, his jumping was inconsistent, he found himself a good six lengths off the pace, and Kotmask’s erratic jumping to the left of him probably didn’t help.

Helpfully, the handicapper dropped him four pounds for that effort to a mark of 131 which surely puts him in very dangerous territory.

I don’t want to keep quoting his form, but he was a certainty to beat Boothill at Ascot in November 2023 off 136 if not for falling at the last.

He also chased home First Flow, a Grade 1 winner in his heyday, at Lingfield off 139 in January 2024, so this eight-pound lower mark surely makes him categorically well-handicapped.

Yes, he might have regressed since, but he is only six, so I really hope this isn’t the case.

This 2m4f trip is new to him (in the UK) and I don’t hate it too much.

He thundered home when second to First Flow, he charged to the front when falling at Ascot over 2m1f, and he’s always found plenty off the bridle when on a going day.

He’s a bet here. Send help.

 

3:40 Newbury – Hugos New Horse @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW

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He’ll come on for the run, but I can’t get away from Hugos New Horse in the Newbury finale.

Because this is his first run of the season, I tried to find a horse against him, but it was hard to leave him unbacked.

The one who looked interesting was Annsam, but Evan Williams is 1/39 over the last two weeks, so that put me off.

It all pointed back to Hugos New Horse who has a lenient mark of 126, which is four pounds below the mark he had when third in Crambo in the 2023 Novices’ Handicap Final at Sandown.

On his final start of that season, he beat Persian Time at Ayr who won twice over fences subsequently and two starts previously, he gave three pounds away to Tightenourbelts (now rated 132) who won a handicap chase at Exeter earlier this month.

Last season didn’t go to plan for him, but he had a mid-season break and never really got going, so I’m happy to put a line through the whole campaign.

I think he has room to improve off his mark and tomorrow’s race looks like an easy enough one to do that in.

Ahead of John Durkan Day, this weekend’s selections have provided some nice profit for the column.

Winners with Aucunrisque (11/1), Trelawne (3/1), and Royale Pagaille (4/1) put us in a nice position ahead of a good renewal of the John Durkan today.

So, let’s dive in.

 

12:15 Uttoxeter – Farland @ 7/4 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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Firstly, although he is only five, Farland is becoming an expensive horse to follow for me.

Paul Nicholls and the team at Ditcheat think plenty of the horse, but he’s quirky which has counted against him so far this season.

His run at Chepstow was his seasonal reappearance, though Harry Cobden gave him plenty to do at Ffos Las 14 days ago.

Although this effort was disappointing, the winner (Crest Of Fortune) is a smart horse for Anthony Honeyball and today looks like an easier race.

Furthermore, Jay Tidball takes five pounds off his back today which is always handy.

He’s a winner on soft ground, so today’s cut in the surface should help and I’ll keep him on side today.

 

12:40 Punchestown – Riviere d’Etel @ 9/2 with Bet365 – 1pt Win

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Riviere D’Etel is a cliff horse of mine, and she is a tricky horse to catch, but when she’s right, she’s right.

Of her five successes, she has winning distances of 12, 11, 21, 12, and 33 lengths next to her name, and some of the horses that have beaten her in the past include Ferny Hollow, Blue Lord, Captain Guinness, and Allegorie De Vassy.

In my mind, she’s the classiest horse here and she gets weight from Risk Belle while also carrying the same weight as her nearest market rivals.

So why the switch to hurdles?

She was never the tidiest chaser, and she has to go right-handed because of her jumping, but even I’m surprised by this new move from connections.

She took to the smaller obstacles well on her seasonal reappearance last month when fourth to Jetara and the softer the ground, the better her chance gets.

I like this horse, and this looks like a winnable race.

 

2:25 Punchestown – Fastorslow @ 5/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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The John Durkan is a great race, and although this isn’t revolutionary news, I think Fastorslow has the most upsides.

Right, here is how I see his rivals.

Fact To File has to prove himself in open company and is his form all there? Spillane’s Tower falls into this category as well, while I do think Inothewayurthinkin is better than his 25/1 price suggests.

Galopin Des Champs comes on for his first runs and Willie Mullins admitted recently that he missed a few weeks of work, so I’ll leave this legend alone for now.

Grangeclere West has great form from Leopardstown, but this being his first run for 331 days after a few setbacks is a worry.

The rest need to prove themselves at this level, so it all points back to Fastorslow.

He won this race last year on his first run of the season, and he continued to show his good form for the rest of the season.

When beaten by Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup, he was coming off a break, and he then finished the season by beating the two-time Gold Cup winner at Punchestown.

Inothewayurthinkin is on the shortlist, but Gavin Cromwell’s slightly windy pre-race comments have put me off and I think he will have bigger targets later this year.

So, my vote for the John Durkan falls on Fastorslow, and it wouldn’t shock me to see his name in the Kempton Park racecard on Boxing Day later this year.

 

3:10 Uttoxeter – Ballybeg @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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Royale Pagaille’s course specialism for Haydock was part of the reason behind backing him yesterday, and the love Ballybeg has for Uttoxeter is duly noted.

His two victories and one second at the track shows he likes the course, and his mark of 121 is workable.

His last winning mark was 119, but his previous successful ratings came off 125 and 129 and two of those three handicap victories occurred on ground softer than soft.

Furthermore, Freddie Gordon takes the ride and his valuable claim of five pounds brings him down to an effective mark of 116.

He has a race under his belt and he drops into Class 4 company for the first time since he beat the subsequent two-time winner Malaita.

Hopefully, today is his day.

At the time of writing, I’m still yet to know the results of yesterday’s column, but with a graduation to attend on Friday, I’m sorting my Betfair Chase Day selections early.

Apart from that Florida Pearl, this weekend is truly a cracker, so above all else, just enjoy the racing.

Plenty of racing like this weekend can entice one into having too many bets, so keep it clear cut and the rest of the racing can remain untouched.

So, let’s begin.

 

1:15 Haydock – Fine Casting @ 20/1 & Knight Of Allen with 10/1 – 1pt EW both

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The 2m3f handicap hurdle is full of chances, though I thought Fine Casting and Knight Of Allen had good chances for different reasons.

Starting with the latter, I’m taking it on trust that he is better than 120 because he hasn’t exclusively shown this to date.

He ran a good race at Uttoxeter behind Wade Out when giving 5lbs away to the winner, but he looked like he needed the run that day.

Jane Williams highlighted the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle as his first big target pre-season, and while he’ll need to improve on his last effort to even run in the race, connections must think plenty of him.

He stuck on nicely last time out and finished a good second to the now 130-rated Liari on awful ground at Aintree in December 2023, so he could make light work of 120.

As for Fine Casting, he worked nicely at Newbury on Tuesday morning and is on a nice mark to do damage.

His last win came off 123 over course and distance in December 2022 and he went on to finish a good fourth in the 2023 Imperial Cup off 129.

He didn’t pick up over fences last year, though his third at Cheltenham to Libberty Hunter and Matata off 126 is notable, and he looked a very sound hurdler two seasons ago.

It’s his first run of the year, which is a worry, but he has the right attributes here.

 

1:50 Haydock – Trelawne @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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Kim Bailey has not hidden his excitement for Trelawne this season, and hopefully, the softening of the ground will allow him to make his seasonal reappearance.

He was my Coral Gold Cup horse a few months ago until they failed to get a prep run into him, and he actually went off shorter for the Ultima than his stablemate Chianti Classico.

When speaking to Bailey last season, he convinced me that Trelawne was equally as good if not a more talented horse than Chianti Classico.

Considering I was Chianti Classico’s biggest fan last year, that took some convincing.

He tipped along last year nicely without properly breaking through, though he showed plenty of promise when behind the likes of Ginny’s Destiny, Grey Dawning, and Colonel Harry.

Iroko is clearly a nice horse, but I feel like Trelawne is also full of talent and I want to keep him on side.

 

3:05 Haydock – Royale Pagaille @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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The Betfair Chase is a bit of a cracker this year.

Yes, it maybe doesn’t have the ‘wow factor’ of a Gold Cup winner, but it’s incredibly competitive and tricky to work out.

The horse I’ve landed on is Royale Pagaille as I think he might get conditions in his favour.

The ground is good currently, but rain overnight, throughout today, and the incoming boatload tomorrow afternoon is sure to ease the surface up to nearly soft. One can hope, anyway.

If that’s the case, Venetia Williams’ 10-year-old enters calculations.

He further moves up the ranks of working out when you consider he’s won two of his five seasonal reappearances.

One of his losses came against a truly impressive A Plus Tard, the other came at the hands of Bravemansgame, and the final one was his first run for the yard.

This is his Gold Cup, and I recognise that this phrase is sometimes overused, but he won this race on his first start of last season and he’s a four-time Haydock Park winner.

If the ground goes soft, that will rule against a few near the bottom of the market (notably Ahoy Senor, Hewick, The Real Whacker, and Bravemansgame), and I have a small question mark against Grey Dawning.

Overall, he has a sound chance despite his age of 10.

 

3:20 Ascot – Sans Bruit @ 11/2 & Marvel De Cerisy @ 13/2 – 1pt Win Both

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Much like the handicap at Haydock earlier in the day, I’m happy to play two horses in the 2m1f handicap chase at Ascot, but It’s just win-only on the pair.

Starting with Sans Bruit, he’s on a career-high mark and he didn’t get dropped in the handicap for his third in the Haldon Gold Cup.

However, that’s fine, because it was his first run of the season and it occurred on good ground rather than his preferred soft.

The horses ahead of him, JPR One and Djelo, look like bonified Graded horses and the former could even run nicely in Grade 1s later this season.

It’s hard to ignore what he did at Aintree in the Red Rum last season, and it’s equally hard to ignore the market move for him on the first day of the Grand National Festival.

I think he’s quite smart and there’s a chance we haven’t seen the best of him yet.

As for Marvel De Cerisy, he’s a familiar name to those who backed him for the 2023 Plate Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival when trained by Henry de Bromhead.

He finished ninth that day, though that year’s renewal looks smart thanks to Fugitif, Shakem Up’arry, Il Ridoto, and Bowtogreatness.

Before that, he gave seven pounds to the subsequent Mares’ Chase winner Impervious in a Wexford beginners chase and ran a good race before falling at the last.

Since moving back to France and changing trainers to Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm, he won his last two starts on heavy ground and gets in here off 136.

That looks like a workable mark, and the more rain the better.

This weekend is one to enjoy, with Ascot, Haydock, and Punchestown taking centre stage.

That Morgiana Hurdle, the return of Galopin Des Champs, and the first UK Grade 1 race of the 2023/24 season are all on this weekend, so enjoy the next few days.

Anyway, a few horses caught my eye for Ascot on Friday, so let’s dive in.

 

1:30 Ascot – Wade Out @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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I’m taking a chance that Wade Out has sharpened up his jumping since his first run over hurdles at Uttoxeter last month.

He scrambled over a few of the flights on his hurdles debut, but he’s entitled to improve for the experience and there’s no questioning the engine he showed that day.

The second, We’re Red And Blue, was race-fit and went on to win a maiden hurdle on his next start to frank the form.

The third, Knight Of Allen, had Grade 1 aspirations put upon him by Jane Williams at the start of the season as well, so beating him by over five lengths is notable.

However, there’s no getting away from the fact that this race is a hot one.

Celtic Dino looked good in a winnable race at Wincanton last month, Joyeuse comes from the family of Epatante and won a fair race at Taunton last year, and Royal Infantry was a nice bumper horse who started his career over hurdles well at Chepstow earlier this month.

However, I have no reason to ditch Wade Out here and I still look back at the turn of foot he showed in his Market Rasen bumper success fondly.

This is his first big test, so let’s see how he handles it.

 

2:05 Ascot – Persian Time @ 11/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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Nicky Henderson’s Persian Time has circled my mind for a few weeks now, but finally connections have pulled the trigger on declaring him.

He held an entry for the Grand Sefton a few weeks ago, but speaking to Ella McNeill of the McNeill Family, she said he just needed a bit more time to get over his seasonal reappearance.

That suggests he needed his first run of the season.

He’s a bulky horse, but he likes slightly faster ground as he has three victories on good to soft next to his name.

The latest came in March at Kempton when Henderson’s stable form was massively out, so the performance is upgraded notably.

Furthermore, he beat Soul Icon over 2m2f that day who has improved 10lbs since having nearly won the Summer Plate and Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices’ Chase.

Beau Balko also finished third that day and he won a Wincanton recently.

The six-year-old by Califet also has an Ascot success next to his name having beaten Homme Public in December 2023.

He was fortunate that Authorised Speed fell that day, but the runner-up won at Doncaster on his next start.

It will be interesting to see how he handles this 2m5f test, and with the Henderson stable form in much better nick than his last win (29% SR), his chance looks good off 134.

Just of the rest, Corrigeen Rock off top weight would look like the obvious danger.

He likes the surface, has good form with Thunder Rock, and goes well fresh.

 

2:40 Ascot – Aucunrisque @ 11/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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It might be time to give up on Aucunrisque soon, but I’m willing to chance him at Ascot on Friday.

Let’s get the facts straight. His last winning mark was 138 when winning the 2023 Betfair Hurdle, he ran to an RPR of 141 on his last visit to Ascot in November 2023, and six of his seven victories have come on ground better than good to soft.

He keeps reeling me in due to his attractive handicap mark, but the fact Freddie Gordon claims five pounds off his current mark of 129 is too hard to ignore.

He tends to ride a bit behind the bridle, but he showed plenty of promise on his last start at Cheltenham when Gordon couldn’t claim anything in the saddle, and the second (Norman Fletcher) won impressively off a three-pound higher mark on his next start at Huntingdon.

His only start at Ascot saw him finish a fair fifth off 144 behind Boothill (second in the Shloer Chase last week), Frere d’Armes, Triple Trade (a winner on his next start), and Corrigeen Rock (a winner of the Scottish Champion Chase two starts later).

Look, he isn’t the same horse as he once was, but an effective mark of 124 looks very attractive.

The final day of the Cheltenham November Meeting is here, and many will have one thing on their minds. Dysart Enos in the Greatwood.

Yesterday’s column found the 1-3 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup as Il Ridoto won under a cool Freddie Gingell ride.

With hopes of continuing the form, here are my fancies.

 

1:45 Cheltenham – Leader In The Park @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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I’m taking a small chance that Leader In The Park is ready fitness-wise for today because he looks well-handicapped on his handicap and chase debut.

Backing horses first-time-out this season is something I’ve tried to avoid when possible, so that is a note of caution against siding with him today, but he could well have too much in hand today.

Also, on the point of fitness, the horse was ready to go when declared for his chase debut at Ascot two weeks ago before connections made him a non-runner due to the ground, so I hope the extra two weeks of work have brought him along nicely.

Starting with the ground, he’s a winner on soft, but the course had 3mm of rainfall last night to add to the 3-5mm of watering (interesting call), so he should handle conditions.

There’s also plenty of good ground form throughout his pedigree to help.

We had Ben Pauling on the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast a few weeks ago, and he said that this six-year-old point-to-point winner was his best novice hurdler last year without showing his true potential.

That’s a bold statement considering they had Tellherthename, a Supreme runner, and Personal Ambition in their novice hurdle squad last season, but it’s one worth noting down.

On hurdles debut, he finished second to Paul Nicholls’ Farnoge and ahead of Excello who beat Solo over fences on his next start to frank the form.

Off 121 today, he gets an eight-pound swing in the weights with the favourite, Peaky Boy, based on his Cheltenham run in April, and having sorted out an issue with his ribs, hopefully he can improve today.

 

2:20 Cheltenham – Matata @ 13/8 @ William Hill – 2pt Win

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This weekend’s previous two 2pt wins have both lost, so proceed with caution, but I like Matata in the two-mile handicap chase.

Calico beat him at Cheltenham last meeting, but Dan Skelton’s eight-year-old went well fresh and Matata was taken on from the front by Dancing On My Own.

One can imagine that he’ll get an easy lead today due to the small field, and hopefully with a run under his belt, his typical freshness will settle down better today.

There’s a one-pound swing in the weights towards Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old, and while that won’t make much difference, it will help.

His form with Libberty Hunter, JPR One, Master Chewy, Strong Leader, Luccia, and Inthepocket is the best in here, so I hope he reverses the places today.

 

2:55 Cheltenham – Does He Know @ 5/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW

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Does He Know looks like a sound each-way bet in the 3m3f handicap chase, a race he won two years ago.

He won off 152 that day when beating a subsequent winner Eva’s Oskar, so today’s rating of 150 makes him well-treated on that effort.

The handicapper dropped him two pounds for his first run of the season last month, but the performance was better on the eye than the 15-and-a-half-length defeat would suggest.

He attempted to make all against some nice horses that day. The winner, Senior Chief, could be a Grand National horse this year and the third, Broadway Boy, is on the Coral Gold Cup shortlist.

He’s a dower stayer, as shown by his win in this two years ago and his Grimthorpe Handicap Chase success in March, and with a run under his belt, he should go well here.

 

3:30 Cheltenham – Under Control @ 10/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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I think there’s a well-handicapped mare in this field, though I’m not talking about Dysart Enos.

Last year, I thought Under Control was a certainty off 137 in the Gerry Feilden but she finished 179 lengths behind the winner. Shrood.

However, she wasn’t right that day at Newbury and she improved to finish second in the Grade 2 Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle in January when splitting Ashroe Diamond and Gala Marceau.

The former was a Grade 1 winner who had Marine Nationale and Irish Point form and the latter finished the season by chasing home Lossiemouth in the Grade 1 Mares Champion Hurdle.

On her final start of the 2022-23 season, she beat Iberico Lord off level weights in the novices’ championship final at Sandown.

The form of this race is red hot as the second won the Greatwood and Betfair Hurdle last year, the fourth, General Medrano, improved 11lbs over fences and the sixth, Tapley, has improved 12lbs since.

She loves a nice surface rather than soft winter ground, so hopefully she goes well here.

 

3:30 Cheltenham – Florida Dreams @ 25/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 0.5pt EW

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However, at a bigger price to Under Control, Florida Dreams can outrun his odds here.

Having won a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree on his final start of the 2022-23 season, last year didn’t go to plan as he won just once over hurdles.

The bumper form of that win is worth noting though as Esprit Du Potier, rated 128 over hurdles, finished sixth, Masaccio, rated 137 over fences, finished seventh, Go To War, rated 123 over hurdles, finished eighth, and Samui, rated 104 on the Flat, finished ninth.

The promising Blizzard Of Oz, Hasthing, and Bowenspark were further up the field, and while they haven’t shown too much yet, they could improve notably this season.

On his final start of last season, he finished a fair eighth when two pounds out of the handicap in the Scottish Champion Hurdle.

Rubaud and L’Eau du Sud have franked the form of the race already.

After a success on seasonal reappearance last time out, connections have applied the first-time cheekpieces to help sharpen him up.

He needs to improve, but there’s enough form in the book to suggest he can off 127 with a run under his belt.

Buddy One slightly disappointed the column yesterday, but we roll on to day two of the Cheltenham November Meeting.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup headlines the action today, though the rest of the action looks interesting from a punting perspective as well.

Let’s roll on.

 

1:45 Cheltenham – Lookaway @ 3/1 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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I’ve banged the drum of Lookaway for the Arkle Trial all week, though it’s sad enough to see his price so short compared to his ante-post price of 10/1.

Still, the case for him remains.

His Grade 2 success over Kamsinas, Idy Wood, Williethebuilder, Toto Too, and Act Of Authority from last season continues to work out in the form book and he improved nicely through the campaign.

He tried to give 6lbs away to Iberico Lord in the Greatwood Hurdle when he finished second, and the third from that race, Luccia, completed the season by finishing third in the Champion Hurdle.

Nemean Lion, the fifth, went on to win a Grade 2 hurdle later in the season as well.

After that, he was a good second in the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle and the race looks like a good piece of form with Captain Teague, The Jukebox Man, Johnnywho, and Masaccio.

Although that came on heavy and he finished third in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle on soft as well, he has an action that looks to suit good ground, and he showed that off when winning on chase debut at Uttoxeter earlier this month.

Beating Personal Ambition, a Grade 2 novice hurdle winner, on his first start over fences was a good effort and he has plenty in his favour here, notably the ground and course.

Furthermore, although L’Eau du Sud has good form in the book, I’m worried about him on the ground.

He won on heavy in France, he was second twice last season on heavy, and his dam won on heavy.

Dan Skelton declared him as a non-runner on good ground in April 2023 and October 2024 which would also be a worry.

 

2:20 Cheltenham – Il Ridoto @ 8/1 and Lets Go Champ @ 11/1 – 1pt Win for both

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I found the Paddy Power Gold Cup a tough race to decipher this year, which I suppose is a good thing in the grand scheme of things, but Il Ridoto and Lets Go Champ makes the most appeal.

Starting with the former, he’s my usual bet in this kind of race, which is a worry.

His attractive mark of 138 (which is actually 141 due to Protektorat’s inclusion in the race) is like a big pot of gold, and Freddie Gingell’s three-pound claim in the saddle is the big arrow in the sky pointing down to it.

The seven-year-old was fourth in the 2022 renewal off 140 when Ga Law had a 13-pound lower rating and French Dynamite had a three-pound lower rating.

He ran a solid race last year to finish third, though both of his last runs in the Paddy Power came as his first run of the season.

Today, he arrives as a race-fit horse, and he won off 138 when beating Fugitif in January 2023.

As for Lets Go Champ, he’s an improver for Henry de Bromhead and his mark of 141 looks workable to the eye.

He held nice company in Ireland over both hurdles and fences, notably when behind Nick Rockett (rated 150), Embassy Gardens (rated 150), and Tactical Move (rated 145).

He’ll appreciate the ground as he won at the Punchestown Festival on good to yielding in May.

Mike O’Connor claims a nice three pounds off his back as well, so he can continue his improvement this weekend.

 

2:55 Cheltenham – Thanksforthehelp @ 7/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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There’s a good chance that Thanksforthehelp can run well off a workable mark of 118 in the three-mile handicap hurdle.

He bolted up at Chepstow in February 2023 off 117 on good to soft ground before starting as favourite in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival.

He ran no sort of race that day, but his previous runs suggest that good ground is what he likes.

In April 2022, he ran on handicap debut in a 2m4f Punchestown handicap hurdle off 109.

The winner, Life In The Park, is now rated 143 over fences, the second, Rock Road, had a rating of 137 over fences before his fatal injury, and the fifth, Stumptown, holds a rating of 149 over fences.

That is good form, and the race occurred on good to yielding ground.

If he recreates any of those efforts this weekend, he will run a big race at a nice price.

 

4:00 Cheltenham – Siog Geal @ 6/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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Fergal O’Brien has a strong hand in the concluding mares’ bumper, but Siog Geal gets the nod over Strong Run.

She is a well-regarded horse at Ravenswell Farm having won a point-to-point in February 2024, the form of which already looks nice as the second, Jasmine d’Airy, won on bumper debut in May 2024 by six lengths.

Since joining O’Brien’s stable, she finished an eye-catching second to Kapability when given plenty to do by Jonathan Burke, and she’ll come on for it nicely.

That run came on good ground and she is the choice of Burke for Saturday’s assignment which is always a good sign.

At 13/2, she looks like a nice each-way bet.