Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Four To Follow – Arc de Triomphe Tips

    Four To Follow – Arc de Triomphe Tips

    It’s Europe’s premier race, full of legends and history. Who will write their name into the annals of the great Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. There’s also some great competitive Group One’s in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere, Prix de l’Opera and Prix la Foret.

     

    Redemption Masterpiece

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    1:30 – Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere (GROUP ONE) – Henri Matisse @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    It may have been a shock in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes, but Henri Matisse had his excuses. He leaned to both the left and right and ran around, confirmed post-race. Now he has first time blinkers on, which is a big positive. He achieved Group Two success in the Futurity back in August and has always looked like one of the premier Aidan O’Brien colts. Ryan Moore has already achieved a treble at Longchamp, with O’Brien with four big wins, and Henri Matisse can continue the trend.

     

    Olympic Champion

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    3:20 – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (GROUP ONE) – Los Angeles @ 5/1 (General)

    I’ve racked my brains over this Group One, and I’m still unsure at time of writing. However, I believe I’ve come down on three with big chances.

    One of them is Los Angeles. He’s been very consistent over a mile and a half, but wasn’t ready for the Irish Champion Stakes. This looks to have been in the list of targets after his win in the Irish Derby. He also has form with Illinois, who won yesterday at Longchamp, after he only lost by a neck in the Great Voltigeur. He can be very competitive for the in-form yard.

    Aventure has also been consistent back in France. She only finished a length down in the Prix de Diane back in June before achieving Group Two success in the Prix de Pomone. Finishing three-quarters of a length down last time out in the Prix Vermeille, she can bid to follow in the footsteps of the great mares who have won this race. 20/1 (William Hill, Boylesports).

    Continuous has been severely underestimated in my opinion. We saw an O’Brien second string win the feature yesterday, and Continuous won’t go in to be a pacemaker. The former St Leger winner hasn’t had the best of seasons, with his only victory coming over 10 furlongs. But he was a good fifth in last year’s renewal and will love both the ground and trip and has proven to outstay some in this field. 28/1 (William Hill).

     

    The Wrong Choice?

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    4:05 – Prix de l’Opera (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 11/2 (General)

    I think that Ryan Moore may have made the wrong choice in this race. Ylang Ylang hasn’t placed at all this season and best performances have come over a mile. Content is more proven at the middle distance after finishing second in the Irish Oaks, then winning the Yorkshire Oaks. The soft ground and step down in trip puts her over the edge of her favoured stablemate for me.

    At a price Hanalia looks attractive for Johnny Murtagh. She was outclassed in her only Group One start, the Irish Oaks, but was a good winner on Irish Champions Weekend in the Blandford Stakes. She can handle the trip, but ground could be a question. However she is unexposed in that department and has credentials to run a place. 14/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Un Pour France

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    4:40 – Prix La Foret (GROUP ONE) – Ramatuelle @ 3/1 (General)

    Ramatuelle has had a long layoff and a slight step down in trip today, may be the difference. She was narrowly beaten in the 1000 Guineas, which the form has been electric all season (and Tamfana finally got her win yesterday). In her native France she’ll be used to the quirks with the ground, and the French can walk away from Arc weekend with their heads held high.

    The very best of luck!

  • Prix de lArc de Triomphe Day History maker

    Prix de lArc de Triomphe Day History maker

    Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Day is finally upon us, and what a day it promises to be.

    Six Group 1s headlined by the main race itself is what dreams are made of, and plenty of the Group 1s on offer make for good betting heats.

    Just quickly, yesterday wasn’t a great day. Inspiral ran her heart out to finish second in the Sun Chariot and Queen Of Soldiers travelled like the winner before fading.

    Unfortunately, travelling like the winner doesn’t equate to money returning to the wallet, so I’ll have to turn my excuses into better decisions. My apologies.

    Anyway, let’s roll on.

     

    1:30 Longchamp – Rashabar @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Rashabar is a much shorter price than his winning SP (80/1) for the Coventry Stakes earlier this year, but 7/2 looks more than fair here.

    Starting with that Royal Ascot win, four horses have come out of the contest and subsequently won stakes races, so the form looks solid.

    Furthermore, he showed a great attitude to stay on behind Whistlejacket in the Group 1 Prix Morny from the outside of the field, a race that looks like another solid piece of form as both the first and third have placed in separate Group 1s since.

    There’s a lot to like about him here, and with a pedigree of Holy Roman Emperor out of a Camelot mare, he should stay seven furlongs.

     

    3:20 Longchamp (The Arc) – Shin Emperor @ 7/1 & Al Riffa @ 9/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt Win Each

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    Could Japan win their first-ever Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe? I think so, whether it’s through a Japanese trainer or owner.

    Starting with my main selection, Shin Emperor, his run in the Irish Champion Stakes is there for all to see.

    The performance was huge, especially when you consider that his route through was partially blocked.

    The Irish Champion Stakes has so many good formlines in it with Economics and Auguste Rodin as well as the City Of Troy formline thanks to Ghostwriter.

    Furthermore, he is a full brother to the 2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Sottsass, so I’m not too worried if the ground is riding on the slightly slow side of good.

    As for Al Riffa, although Johnny Dineen gives him no chance, I think there are upsides to him.

    The form of the Coral-Eclipse with City Of Troy, Ghostwriter, and See The Fire looks good and he even ran into last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Ace Impact in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano.

    Although his last run in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin was a penalty kick, the third, Best Of Lips, won a Group 3 on his next start to give the form a little bit of substance.

    With ground versatility on his side, he deserves respect.

     

    4:05 Longchamp – Friendly Soul @ 17/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1.5pts EW

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    On Saturday’s Only Fools Love Horses Saturday Live and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe preview (released on Wednesday), I waxed lyrical about Friendly Soul for the Prix de l’Opera.

    She’s held her price nicely at 17/2 and this is a race John Gosden highlighted immediately after her nice victory in the Group 2 Prix Alec Head in August.

    The form of her win in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes in May looks good as the second, Kalpana, went on to win the Listed Glasgow Stakes and Group 3 September Stakes.

    Two starts later, Friendly Soul won the Group 3 Valiant Stakes, a race that has seen Soprano (4th) and Sirona (6th) go on to frank the form.

    The former won a Group 3 on her next start before placing in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes and the latter won the Listed Rosemary Stakes recently.

    By Kingman, she is related to six black-type horses, notably the Group 1 winners With You, Call The Wind, and We Are.

    She is the NAP of the weekend.

     

    4:40 Longchamp – Ramateuelle @ 3/1 with Bet365 – 1pt Win

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    Finally, the Prix de la Foret looks like a race Ramateuelle can impress in, and her form got a nice boost yesterday.

    She looked like the winner for 90% of the 1000 Guineas earlier this year before fading at the last moment to finish third. Arguably, Aurelien Lemaitre kicked for home too soon which saw her become a sitting duck late on.

    That race is working out well as Porta Fortuna and Tamfana have gone on to frank the form at Group 1 level, most recently in the Moyglare Stud Stakes and Sun Chariot respectively.

    Fallen Angel and See The Fire, who probably both underperformed at Newmarket, went on to Group 1 and Group 3 success subsequently to further boost the race’s form.

    This daughter of Justify has plenty of speed under the bonnet as she is a winner over six furlongs, so the return to seven furlongs is no worry.

    If the ground quickens up, she has a pedigree to suggest that’ll suit her, though she also has plenty of form on good to soft.

    I’m hoping she is raring to go after 107 days away as she could blow this race apart.

  • Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend Inspiring Inspiral

    Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend Inspiring Inspiral

    Well, one of the biggest weekends in the calendar is upon us as it’s the Saturday before the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

    Today, we have three Group 1s to look forward to as well as plenty of interesting handicaps, solid Group 2s and open Group 3s.

    Looking back on last weekend, the phrase ‘we needed that’ summed up how I felt after the dust had settled.

    Why? Well, since the Bestofbets.com column returned on August 13th, the form was sketchy.

    But, a profit of 5.6pts across the weekend brought us into profit by 0.35pts from 38pts staked. These aren’t revolutionary numbers, but sitting in profit after a notably bad month is always a good sign.

    Anyway, let’s dive in.

     

    1:30 Newmarket – Queen Of Soldiers @ 12/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)

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    Karmology originally caught my eye when I first looked at Newmarket’s opening race, but it’s hard to ignore Queen Of Soldiers at 12/1.

    A mark of 80 looks very lenient for this three-year-old by Sea The Stars considering she finished second to the now 109-rated Group 2 winner Nakheel on debut.

    The fourth, Queens Fort, is also rated 95 having won a Lingfield maiden and finished seventh in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes.

    She was sent off short prices for her next two races when disappointing, but her handicap debut at Ayr last time out showed she has ability.

    Roger Varian has reached for the first-time blinkers which makes sense as she didn’t look the easiest ride on her last start and her racing weight of 8-4 will feel like nothing compared to the 9-2 and 9-9 she’s carried on her last four starts.

    She looks well-handicapped and is out of the Listed winner Diamounds Pour Moi, so her pedigree is also solid.

     

    2:05 Newmarket – Twafeeg @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I don’t tend to back horses after a long break, but Twafeeg stands out in the 150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes despite his 106-day absence.

    The filly by Far Above impressively beat the subsequent Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge winner Arabian Dusk on debut before going on to finish seventh in the Albany Stakes.

    Simmering (2nd) has won a Group 2 and placed in a Group 1 since, Heavens Gate (3rd) won a Group 3 on her next start, Mountain Breeze (3rd) chased home Arabian Dusk on her next start in the Duchess Of Cambridge, and California Dreamer (5th) placed in a Group 2 seven days later.

    The half-sister to the Group 3 winner Corazon holds an entry for next year’s Irish 1000 Guineas, and while this fact isn’t a tip, it’s nice to know how much they think of her.

     

    2:40 Newmarket – Inspiral @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’ll admit, I’ve never really warmed to Inspiral from a betting perspective. The combination of short prices and wanting to take her on with different horses has always followed her in my eyes, but today, I’m changing tactics.

    Firstly, the ground is likely to be on the slightly softer side of good at Newmarket today. It’s nothing to seriously worry about, but it’s worth noting that Inspiral has won three Group 1s on good to soft.

    She won last year’s Sun Chariot on good to firm, but the form looks strong as Mqse De Sevigne, the runner-up, has won four races since, three of them at Group 1 level.

    Before that, she beat Big Rock in the Prix Jacques le Marois before he impressively won QEII Stakes on Champions Day, so her form speaks for itself.

    Although she has been below par this season, John Gosden admitted she would need her run in the Lockinge and she gave herself some tough tasks in the Prince Of Wales’s and Prix Jacques le Marois due to some back breaks from the stalls.

    This race, however, is her easiest task in a long time, and the team at Clarehaven Stables have prepared her well for this contest thanks to some stalls work and a racecourse gallop.

    On what is probably her swansong, I think she can ride off into the sun with a victory.

     

    3:20 Redcar – Billboard Star @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Billboard Star has taken a bit of my money this year, but today is the day we finally get paid out.

    He is best at the weights by nine pounds and his form is one of a Group horse having chased home Whistlejacket in the July Stakes four starts ago.

    He then suffered interference during the Group 2 Richmond Stakes, form that looks good after The Waco Kid (5th) won last week’s Group 3 Somerville Tattersall Stakes, and he had a bad run through the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes on his next start.

    Although today’s soft ground should be fine, he did hang a bit on heavy ground on his last start in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes.

    Despite veering off to the left (away from the side that produced the 1-2), he ran well and he’s a horse I think plenty of.

     

    4:00 Longchamp – Ottery @ 16/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Avid watchers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel will know I highlighted Ottery for the Prix de Royallieu on Wednesday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe preview, and my opinion hasn’t changed.

    The ground isn’t as soft as I had hoped, but her dam, Longina, won a Group 2 on good and placed in the 2015 German Oaks on good to soft, so she doesn’t need bottomless ground.

    Both of her last two runs have suggested more is to come, notably when finishing s staying on third to Double Major in the Prix Maurice de Nieuil.

    The winner has since bolted up in another Group 2 under a penalty and is the closest market rival to Kyprios in today’s Cadran.

    Her next start in the Prix de Pomone caught the eye due to interference, but once she switched to the far side rail, she plugged on nicely.

    14 furlongs looks like her trip, so she is one to keep onside on Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe weekend.

  • Four To Follow – A Trés French Weekend

    Four To Follow – A Trés French Weekend

    It’s a big weekend for Europe as all eyes train to France for a plethora of French Group One’s, culminating in tomorrow’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Today there’s not just two Group One’s in France, but one at Newmarket. Plus big handicap action at Ascot. Plenty of action on a busy Saturday.

     

    Longchamp

    King Of Europe

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    1:33 – Prix du Cadran (GROUP ONE) – Kyprios @ 4/11 (BetVictor)

    There’s only one horse to consider. It’s just a question of name the distance, given that Kyprios won the Cadran by 20 lengths when he won the race in 2022. William Hill will pay 3/1 for Kyprios to win over five lengths and that seems like a better bet than just an outright win for one of Europe’s top stayers.

    If you fancy the forecast, Trueshan makes a lot of sense. Despite only winning the Listed Coral-Marathon this year, Trueshan has won the Cadran twice in the last three years. He’s capable at the distance and soft ground suits him to a ‘T’.

     

    Vive La France

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    4:00 – Prix de Royallieu (GROUP ONE) – Caius Chorister @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    Despite training in West Sussex, David Menusier is as French as they come. Which is why he’s targeted his star filly to win in his native country. Caius Chorister came close to winning two Group Three’s at the start of the season and ran a good race at Chester last time out. She won over the same distance on similar ground last season at Saint-Cloud and has been targeted at this race by the trainer. It looks a weak Group One on paper and Caius Chorister possess a lot of talent.

     

    Newmarket

    French Fever

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    2:40 – Sun Chariot Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Tamfana @ 9/4 (General)

    Surface matters at this stage in the season, which, for me, rules out Inspiral and Nashwa who like firmer conditions. Tamfana could make it a big weekend for Mr Menusier. She dominantly won the Group Three Atalanta last time out, and the second, Doha, won yesterday so the form back up. She’s raced behind Sosie, who won next time out too and looks to be a Group One winner in the making.

     

    Ascot

    A Bit More European

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    3:35 – Challenge Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Germanic @ 6/1 (General)

    Three-year-olds do seem to perform better towards the end of the season in handicaps. Particularly if there a couple of pounds well-in on the handicap. Germanic is exactly that. He comes into this race two pounds well-in after finishing a close third to Telemark at Doncaster last time out. It’s clear he can handle soft ground which is another plus for him and can produce a similar run off an advantageous mark.

    Another horse off an advantageous mark is Golden Mind, who finished within a neck to Telemark in the same race. It’s clear he can handle both trip and distance and Northern trainers have a decent record in this race with David O’Meara and David Barron winning for the North in the last four renewals. Richard Fahey will be eager to add his name. 10/1 (General).

    One at a price to be considered is Popmaster. Despite a winless season, he’s only raced in one handicap this season. Clearly he isn’t a strong horse at Group level, but dropped from a Group Three could work out. Plus he finished a neck down in the same contest last year and is two pounds lower from that. He looks very overpriced at 20/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Newmarket Cambridgeshire Day | London Gold Cup form

    Newmarket Cambridgeshire Day | London Gold Cup form

    The column found a welcome winner yesterday with Bubbling in the Rockfel Stakes, so let’s hope this starts a train of momentum into Newmarket Cambridgeshire Day.

    As of this morning, the ground is currently soft with a going stick reading of 6.3 which is expected.

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    1:50 Newmarket – Wimbledon Hawkeye @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    As long as he handles the softer conditions, Wimbledon Hawkeye has form in the book that gives him a strong chance here.

    Starting with the ground, although he has yet to race on the surface, his dam, Eva Marua, won twice on good to soft ground and once at Newmarket.

    His dam is also a half-sister to the Group 1 placed James Garfield who won a Group 3 on good to soft.

    His run when second in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes was good as he stayed on through the line over seven furlongs and he showed a similar trait when third in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes two starts ago.

    The form of the Acomb is working out as the fourth, The Waco Kid, won Thursday’s Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes and the seventh, Jouncy, finished second in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes next time out.

    Let’s hope the ground is fine for him (it will quicken up throughout the day) because he’ll have a great chance if so.

     

    2:40 Haydock – Woven @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    Heavy ground is the order of play at Haydock today, something that should work for Woven on his first start for 81 days.

    Connections, and punters, know that this horse goes well fresh as he nearly won on seasonal reappearance and his last win came on last year’s seasonal reappearance.

    He won off a mark of 83 that day, so today’s rating of 84 is workable and the horse who finished second that day, Aberama Gold, won five races later that season including the Stewards’ Cup.

    He’s a typical exposed handicapper who has a rating that he can win off on ground that suits him. He’s the usual type I fall for, but I can’t leave him alone.

     

    3:15 Haydock – Aberama Gold @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Because Aberama Gold hasn’t won in 11 runs this year, the handicapper has dropped the seven-year-old 15lbs this year.

    Despite what it may seem, the gelding by Heeraat has run some nice races in defeat all year without truly getting his preferred conditions.

    His losing run includes a third at Newmarket, a sixth in the Listed Hever Sprint Stakes, and a third to the subsequent Ayr Silver Cup winner Alfa Kellenic in the Ayr Gold Cup Trial.

    Looking back on last year, he won a five-furlong handicap on heavy ground off 96, the Stewards’ Cup over six furlongs on heavy ground off 95, and the Dash Handicap at York off 88.

    Today is an assignment over the minimum distance, which is a trip he has won over before, but he’s also won over six so we know he has stamina to use as well.

     

    3:40 Newmarket – Poniros @ 10/1 with Sky Bet (8 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    London Gold Cup form in most years is worth plenty, and this year is working out rather nicely.

    The winner, King’s Gambit, has a rating of 116 after three good runs in Group company and the fourth, Persica, won last week’s Listed Doonside Cup.

    So, it’s worth sticking with Poniros who finished a staying-on second that day at Newbury.

    The three-year-old by Golden Horn put in two poor performances subsequently, but his effort in the Chapel Down Handicap at Ascot earlier this month was good over 1m4f after a 56-day break.

    It’s a big-field handicap today, but a mark of 91 could see him well-treated here.

     

    4:35 Market Rasen – Our Champ @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Not only have the winter illnesses hit early this year, jumps fever is rising at a rapid rate of knots, so I’m going to Market Rasen for one selection today.

    Our Champ looked like a high-class animal last year, and good ground allowed him to strut his stuff.

    He started last year with a facile win at Plumpton before an equally easy success at Cheltenham off 117 on good ground.

    His next win occurred back at Plumpton in the Sussex Champion Hurdle after a 50-day break where he bolted up before finishing the season with a good third at Cheltenham.

    He arguably hit the front too soon at Prestbury Park and paid for that in the final furlong over 2m1f.

    He runs well when fresh, as shown by his win on seasonal reappearance and after a break for the Sussex Champion Hurdle, and the good ground at Market Rasen will suit him.

  • Cambridgeshire Meeting | Day Three – Four To Follow

    Cambridgeshire Meeting | Day Three – Four To Follow

    It’s a busy weekend full of competitive two-year-old action, all culminating in the big Cambridgeshire handicap. Today is the feature day, with two Group One’s for the two-year-olds and the big handicap of the week, the Cambridgeshire.

     

    Marionette Man

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    1:50 – Royal Lodge Stakes (Group Two) – Puppet Master @ 4/1 (General)

    There’s plenty to like about Puppet Master in the Royal Lodge. The first being is that Ryan Moore, unsurprisingly, rode out of his skin yesterday winning the first three races. Secondly, he dominated in his maiden win at Galway winning by four lengths on soft ground.

    Furthermore, the form from his debut at Killarney has backed up after the winner won at Deauville and has a great chance in the 3:45 at The Curragh today. He’s also closely related to True Cyan, a winner on this card in the Blandford maiden 12 months ago. Surprised he isn’t shorter for this contest.

    Law Of Design makes great appeal at an each-way price after winning over seven furlongs at Ascot last time out on testing ground. The form has worked out, with the second winning at Newcastle this week. He has a bit of black-type in his pedigree and is bred by an interesting sire in Arc winner Sottsass. Worth backing at 12/1 (William Hill).

     

    French Fancies

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    2:25 – Cheveley Park Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Daylight @ 100/30 (William Hill)

    I have doubts about the favourites. Babouche, whilst can handle the distance and a proven Group One winner has big question marks over the ground. Despite being a sister to the very talented, and soft-loving, Zarinsk, we haven’t yet seen the versatility of surface from her three runs so far.

    As for Lake Victoria, I have questions as to why she’s stepping down in trip. Aidan O’Brien has been quoted saying they’ve had this race in their minds before the Moyglare. But after winning that, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to drop her down before either the Prix Marcel Boussac or the Fillies’ Mile.

    But, if there’s one type of horse to have on your side, in these conditions, it’s a Frenchie. And today we just have that. Daylight rather dominated a Group Three at Deauville, going clear inside the final furlong to assert. She wasn’t disgraced into third behind Whistlejacket and Rashabar, and the Prix Morny can act as the form race to either the Cheveley or Middle Park Stakes. She’ll be used to the ground, unlike the two other favourites.

     

    Grab Your Coat

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    3:00 – Middle Park Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Whistlejacket @ 8/11 (General)

    A trend that still holds up in this race is the winner of the Prix Morny wins this. Perfect Power, Blackbeard and Vandeek were all victorious in the famous French Group One. And Whistlejacket can keep the trend running. He looks like a talented sprinter for Ballydoyle, which they’ve not had many in recent years. Soft ground won’t bother him either, given he broke his maiden on a similar surface.

     

    Causing Havoc

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    3:40 – Cambridgeshire (Heritage H’cap) – Norwalk Havoc @ 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Soft ground horses are the one to get behind here. Norwalk Havoc won on soft ground as a three-year-old and has proved to be ground versatile after his close second in the Colm Quinn Mile. He’s been raised a respectable three pounds for this run and goes in with a good chance. Those drawn in the 20s have had most of the luck in the last ten renewals. Norwalk Havoc is drawn 26.

    Bopedro is another with a good chance. He ran a cracking third in last year’s Cambridgeshire and is a huge nine pounds lower than last year. He just turned back to form when a near second in a class two handicap at Doncaster. If he can carry on this slight upward turn in form, he has another huge chance. 14/1 (General).

    Empirestateofmind looks to be targeted for this race. Although he hasn’t had the best of seasons. His two runs have not seen him at the front of the pack and his mark lingers at a respectable 90. However, he does like the ground soft underfoot and is drawn well. It is clear when you look back at his career, his best runs often come late on in the season. Not a write off at 50/1 (William Hill, Boylesports).

    Best of Luck!

  • Cambridgeshire Meeting | Rain Gives Sea of Roses Dubai Stakes Shot

    Cambridgeshire Meeting | Rain Gives Sea of Roses Dubai Stakes Shot

    As flat season winds down, interest is growing in Sea of Roses making a play in Friday’s Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Stakes.

    With the rain tumbling down on Day 1 of the Cambridgeshire Meeting at Newmarket, turf which has largely been good or good to firm since July, has taken a turn.

    Now officially soft, the Suffolk going has been shaken up, with Ryan Moore and Time Lock still the pick for Friday’s feature race.

    However, with the ground a good deal juicier now, could Oisin Murphy throw his hat in the ring?

     

    Sea of fortune?

    Despite a wetter than average summer for UK racegoers and punters, the last few months, have remained largely dry.

    However, the the first deluge of Autumn this week have not only seen a change of season but a dramatic switch in conditions.

    That could play handsomely in the direction of Sea of Roses.

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    For a Group 1 race, on soft ground there is little in the way of form to go by, but Andrew Balding’s 4yo is one of the few runners not lightly raced.

    Not only that, the daughter of Sea The Moon comes here with a win at Windsor last month on soft ground, taking down Deira Mile – who went on to finish fourth in the St Leger a fortnight ago.

    As Oisin Murphy jumps aboard for a sixth time, the Irishman and filly are yet to win together, but the rain will only serve them well.

     

    Ryan may not be Lock

    Of course, Time Lock goes in the Dubai Stakes as favourite and with good reason as defending champ after last year’s four-length romp.

    However, could the ground now make things a little bit interesting?

    The 9/2 winner 12 months ago – the 5yo’s last race win – the deck was a lot firmer and with half her career wins on faster turf, there is just a little question mark hanging over Ryan Moore.

    Trainer Harry Charlton has been met with frustration twice this term at Newmarket, and finishing flat last of a small field in the Coronation Cup, has critics to answer.

    Time Lock may be the class of the 8 runners here in terms of pedigree, but does she really want it enough? Quite literally, only time will tell.

     

    Challengers

    Aside from the two in the spotlight, Billy Loughnane and Divina Grace loiter to throw a spanner in the works.

    A two-time winner at HQ, the 4yo filly won at the Cambridgeshire Meet last term but is yet to race on any turf that could be described as softer ground.

    That is not to rule her chances out – far from it – after a campaign of six races, finishing at worst 5th.

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    At similarly longer prices, firstly, Francophone has a outside shot after winning on debut on good to soft, but as a 7f contest, this trip looks a step to far for the moment.

    Meanwhile, Hollie Doyle and Sinology – friendless in the markets at 33/1 with William Hill – have all but been dismissed on current form.

    Yet, as a winner over 1m2f on softish turf at Newbury back in April, has perhaps a better shot than the bookies think.

     

    The Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Stakes takes place on Friday at 2:25pm UK time.

  • Cambridgeshire Meeting | Day Two – Four To Follow

    Cambridgeshire Meeting | Day Two – Four To Follow

    It’s a busy weekend full of competitive two-year-old action, all culminating in the big Cambridgeshire handicap. Today is a slightly subdued, yet competitive day of action featuring the milers in the Joel Stakes. Plus two-year-old action in the Rockfel Stakes.

     

    The Spirit Is Strong

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    1:50 – Rosemary Stakes (Listed) – Spiritual @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    Quite possibly one of the most competitive Listed contests this year, as the fillies compete of the Rowley Mile. And as its autumn soft ground likers come to the fore. Which is why I’m on Spiritual. Her only victory this season came over a mile on soft ground, in a listed contest. She’s also one of three horses who perform on soft ground, and excuse her last couple of runs for ground complaints, and she’s a solid pick.

     

    Soft Day At Sea

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    2:25 – Princess Royal Stakes (Group Three) – Sea Of Roses @ 11/2 (General)

    Sea Of Roses managed to end her near miss sequence by winning at Windsor in the August Stakes last time out. She was tough in the end of her race that day and can now start to build on it. With the ground set to get softer, she can begin to relish in the fact that her record on the surface reads 2-2-1, two wins, two places and a loss. At the top of the market Time Lock and Mistral Star have neither performed on the surface, which will open it up for soft specialist Sea Of Roses.

     

    Smart Dress

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    3:00 – Rockfel Stakes (Group Two) – Formal @ 6/5 (William Hill)

    Two from two, and an eye-catching winner on soft ground, there’s no wonder that Formal is favourite. To make it even better it seems that Formal is ground versatile. He could provide Sir Michael Stoute with a stunning finish to his career. He’s well-bred by Cheveley Park out of Veracious, who won the Atalanta and Falmouth Stakes. He could  see his price shortened for the 2000 Guineas.

    At the prices, Duty First looks attractive having finished second to Ashnoda at Goodwood in the Prestige Stakes. Form from Goodwood is often useful in the Rockfel with three of the last four winners coming from Goodwood last time out. What’s more is that he showed he is capable of testing ground, which it will be on the Rowley Mile and is drawn towards the stand side which can be an advantage. Interesting at 8/1 (William Hill).

     

    Going Gaga

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    3:35 – Joel Stakes (Group Two) – Poker Face @ 4/1 (BetVictor)

    Two horses will go head to head again, and should be the top two finish again. Ice Max and Poker Face battled it out in the Celebration Mile on very testing ground at Goodwood last time out and will go close again. However, Poker Face could overturn the result. He produced a good performance when fourth to Diego Velazquez last time out, but there wasn’t enough rain to slow the leader down. This time there is plenty of rain around and is drawn more favourably than Ice Max.

     

  • Ayr Gold Cup Day | The Highest of Heights

    Ayr Gold Cup Day | The Highest of Heights

    Just one day after City Of Troy came to Southwell Racecourse, British racing fans turn their eyes further north to Scotland for Ayr Gold Cup Day.

    The column had one good day last week for the St Leger meeting, but Sunday’s bets didn’t produce anywhere near what I had hoped.

    It was a bad day, so many apologies, but there’s hope for some better results today.

     

    1:30 Newbury – Relief Rally @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    My William Haggas bunting and scarves will be out in full flow today (see later), but I’m starting my fandom for the yard with Relief Rally in the Newbury opener.

    Today is her first run for 126 days, which is a worry, but she ran with credit over too far on her seasonal reappearance as well as winning on debut as a two-year-old, so there’s scope to suggest she’s ready for today.

    Speaking of that seasonal reappearance in the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Stakes, the contest produced the 1000 Guineas winner Elmalka, so it was a fine effort.

    On her next start, take Elite Status out of the picture and Relief Rally wins like a good horse, but it just so happened that a Group 1 horse (who went on to win the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes) finished ahead of her.

    Adaay In Devon, the third, won a Listed race on her next start and placed behind the subsequent Group 1 Sprint Cup fifth Flora Of Bermuda in the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York.

    She’s a horse I’ve always liked, and today looks like a good chance to get her first win in over a year.

     

    1:50 Ayr – Caviar Heights @ 9/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum and the Doonside Cup have gone hand-in-hand over the last four years. His record is two winners and two thirds, two of which went off favourite and one (Royal Champion, 2022) won at 9/4.

    That’s a good omen for Caviar Heights who looks to have the ability to bounce back to his best.

    His best run to date is his four-length success in the Listed Newmarket Stakes in May when he beat Sayedaty Sadaty, a horse who went on to finish fifth in the Epsom Derby and third in the Gordon Stakes.

    The Gordon Stakes looks like good form as the winner, Jan Brueghel, won the St Leger on his latest start and the second, Bellum Justum, won the Grade 3 Nashville Derby Stakes next time out.

    Bringing it back to the Newmarket Stakes, the performance was visually pleasing and the look across from Clifford Lee to the hard-working Oisin Murphy three furlongs from home lives rent-free inside my head.

    His three subsequent runs give cause for concern, but he was too keen for his own good on his last two starts, so I can excuse him for the efforts.

    Although he has a three-pound penalty to shoulder, he gets weight from his elders, and I believe he has a good engine underneath the bonnet.

     

    2:40 Newbury – Whip Cracker @ 11/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    The recent rain over the last 24 hours has made today’s Newbury ground slow, something that should suit Whip Cracker.

    The Cracksman three-year-old is running for the first time after his gelding operation and, having looked keen on a few starts so far this season, this looks like a good mood.

    Despite this characteristic, the 160,000gns purchase finished second in the Listed Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April, a race won by Jayarebe with Caviar Heights in third and Ambiente Friendly in fourth.

    That form is good as Jayarebe won the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes before running into Economics in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano, Caviar Heights won the Listed Newmarket Stakes next time out, and Ambiente Friendly has placed in two Group 1s since.

    Out of the Sea The Moon mare Wonderhorse, his dam is a half-sister to Advanced, who has his best form in softer conditions, and Wunder, a Group 1-placed mare in Germany.

    On his second start in a handicap and on the back of a 93-day break, he is very interesting here.

     

    3:00 Ayr – Sky Majesty @ 5/2 with BoyleSports – 1pt Win

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    I liked what Sky Majesty did on debut at Newbury for William Haggas, Tony Bloom, and Ian McAleavy, and the form is already working out well.

    The second, Hold A Dream, won a Yarmouth novice three days ago and the third, Glamour Show, is a horse who has solid form in the 80s.

    For a debut performance, she quickened away nicely under Tom Marquand and all it took was a hands-and-heels ride to secure success.

    By Blue Point out of the Bushranger mare Majestic Alexander, he is a half-brother to the Listed winner Democracy Dilemma and Ayr Gold Cup winner Angel Alexander, so the pedigree is there also.

    Haggas has a 25% strike rate at Ayr, and this is his only runner, so let’s hope that the 750-mile round trip is worth it.

     

    3:15 Newbury – Billboard Star @ 18/1 with Bet365 (2 places) – 1pt EW

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    Since the middle of this season, I’ve banged on about how Billboard Star has experienced plenty of trouble at crucial times, so I’m hoping for less of that today.

    Having chased home the subsequent Group 1 winner Whistlejacket in the July Stakes at Newmarket, a race that has worked out well as Aomori City won the Group 2 Vintage Stakes on his next start, he finished fourth in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes next time out.

    He was squeezed within the final half a furlong, so that caused him a bit of an issue, and it was a similar case in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes.

    This interference occurred two furlongs from home and Charlie Bishop pulled stumps when it happened, so that run can be forgiven.

    If he repeats that July Stakes form here, which was on good to soft ground, he has a sterling chance to out-run his odds and win.

     

    3:35 Ayr – Fivethousandtoone @ 33/1 with Sky Bet (8 places) – 0.5 EW

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    Fivethousandtoone is 1/19 in turf races throughout his career, but his mark of 99 makes him attractive back in a race that he has performed well in over the last few years.

    He finished ninth in 2021 from the wrong side of the track and 12th in 2022 with the same problem, but stall 10 looks more lenient today.

    As for his form this season, he was beaten less than three lengths in the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes in June, a race that has worked out well as the winner, Montassib, won the recent Group 1 Sprint Cup and the second, Kinross, was a facile winner of last week’s Group 2 Park Stakes.

    Even the third, Willem Twee, obliged off 106 in a Racing League handicap on his next start and the fifth, Spycatcher, won the Group 3 Prix de Meautry two starts later.

    His success off 98, which is one pound lower than today’s mark, on All-Weather Finals Day in March was very good as Oisin Murphy pulled him across the track into the centre before powering past Misty Grey (a two-time subsequent winner), Chipstead, and Billyjoh (placed in the Buckingham Palace Stakes and Stewards’ Cup since).

    He seems in top order having traded as low as 3/1 in-running on his latest start in the Group 2 City Of York Stakes over seven furlongs, though despite travelling powerfully into the race, he didn’t fully see out the trip.

    With the nature of this race, if they go off at an erratic pace, P J McDonald could sit tight with him and land him just on the line with his handy draw.

  • Four To Follow – Gold Stars

    Four To Follow – Gold Stars

    It’s another busy Saturday of racing, with racing from both sides of the border. On the West Coast of Scotland, it’s the Ayr Gold Cup for the big sprinters. But down in Berkshire, it’s all about the two-year-olds in the Mill Reef. Three Group races plus the big handicap of the day feature in today’s four to follow.

    Ayr

    Mere Mortals

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    3:00 – Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group Three) – Englemere @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    This year’s renewal of the Firth Of Clyde is very tricky. Looking at the trends of winners for the last ten runnings, you have to have some experience. Very rarely does a horse, who’s one from one, win. That’s led me to fall on Englemere. She has plenty of experience at such a young age, but she has had three victories, two coming on good ground. She was last seen behind Flying Childers winner Aesterius at Longchamp, and with the form backed up and the step up in trip looking to suit her, she will be in the finishing pack.

     

    He’s Electric Gold

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    3:35 – Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Jordan Electrics @ 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Jordan Electrics has proved to be a revelation this season. He has risen through the ranks, and established himself as a top level sprinter at the ripe old age of eight-years-old. Most of his wins this season came at Hamilton, but produced a good finish when second to Jm Jungle at York last time out. Today, he’s drawn near pace Angle Lethal Levi in stall 17, which will prove crucial if he’s to end up towards the winning post at the end of six furlongs. Plus he’s upgraded from Bronze, which he was third in last year, to Gold this year.

    Other potential winners include Strike Red, who ran a creditable eighth at The Curragh having to navigate a wall of horses. Before that he was in a bunch finish in the Constantine Handicap in the Ebor Festival. Hold up horses have had success here, just ask Bielsa, so drawn over on the far side in the least pacy part of the draw might not necessarily be a bad thing for him. 16/1 (William Hill).

    Dare To Hope was the winner of the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon a month ago, and the handicap might just work out for him. He’s risen, on average, three pounds per run, which puts him low in the weights for his run here. Drawn next to Lethal Levi, he can easily latch on for pace and can more than improve on his seventh at the Ebor Festival. 28/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Newbury

    The World All Over

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    1:30 – World Trophy Stakes (Group Three) – Annaf @ 7/2 (General)

    Ignore his latest Group One blip, and focus on a more acceptable race and Annaf makes more sense. Yes he wasn’t good in the Sprint Cup, on his first run back since winning a Group Two in the Middle East. But he’s now dropped to an acceptable level, into a Group Three. Last season, at this time he won two races, including the Portland and the Bengough Stakes so Autumn is his time to shine in Britain. Just hope he doesn’t carry the same condition as he did at Haydock.

     

    Brian

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    3:15 – Mill Reef Stakes (Group Two) – Brian @ 6/1 (General)

    Brian.

    An incredible name for what seems to be an incredible horse. He’s racked up two wins already, including the £100,000 Somerville Auction Stakes at Newmarket. And was charging home late in the day behind Symbol Of Strength in the Sirenia at Kempton. He has a liking for soft ground, which is what the ground reads at Newbury this afternoon. Definitely one to upset the powerhouse of Godolphin.

    The very best of luck!