Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Irish St Leger Day | Believe in the Coward

    Irish St Leger Day | Believe in the Coward

    Although the British St Leger is in our rear view mirror, it’s Irish St Leger Day and the action from the Curragh, Doncaster, and Longchamp looks appetising.

    Reflecting on yesterday, it was a slightly annoying day.

    A few horses who made the shortlist before being scratched off went and obliged – a punter’s nightmare – and the finalised selections didn’t perform to expectations.

    Nurburgring returned EW profit at 13/2, but the other three weren’t good enough.

    Still, we are only 2.75 points down for the week so far, so it’s all to play for today.

     

    1:50 Curragh – Strike Red @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Starting at the Curragh, Strike Red is in good form and can return to the winners’ enclosure at a track he knows well.

    The six-year-old won at the course over an extended six furlongs last July off a mark of 95, so his current rating of 94 looks very workable.

    The track had 1.5mm of rain overnight which will help take some of the sting out of the ground as he wouldn’t want it rattling quick.

    When he won at the Curragh last year, he beat Aussie Girl who has improved 13 pounds and Albasheer who has improved eight pounds, so the form looks solid.

    Richard Fahey won this race in 2020 and 2015, so he had good success in Ireland, but I am only playing him win-only as he is prone to trouble in-running from stall three.

     

    2:05 Doncaster – Badri @ 13/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    Forgiving in horse racing is a double-edged sword, but I seem to do it more often than not and that’s the reason why Badri is the selection here.

    Of his nine career successes, his winning official ratings are 100, 96, 88, 90, 88, 82, 75, and 80 from latest to oldest.

    From his last success off 100 at Ascot, Woolhampton has improved eight pounds, Get It has improved five pounds after a Stewards’ Cup win, and Brave Nation has improved four pounds.

    That’s good form and his recent runs suggest he’s in good shape.

    Two starts ago, he put in a solid effort over six furlongs in the Racing League when getting no run up the rail and earlier this month he ran well on unpreferable soft ground.

    Trainer Michael Herrington has fired in three winners from his last nine runners, so he looks to have a nice chance on paper with an official rating of 88.

     

    3:15 Doncaster – Doom @ 6/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    In a very similar vein to Badri, I’m not willing to give up on Doom after his poor effort in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes 15 days ago.

    I fancied this Dubawi filly strongly at Sandown on her last start, but she never picked up, so I’m willing to draw a line through that run.

    Before that, she finished second to Friendly Soul in the Valiant Stakes who has since won a Group 2 in France and had her form franked thanks to Kalpana.

    Out of the Group 1 winner Dank, she has course form having finished second to the subsequent Oaks winner Soul Sister in October 2022 and she has also won over seven furlongs twice.

    Yesterday showed what kind of form William Haggas is in, so if the real Doom turns up, she could be too good.

     

    3:35 Curragh – Believing @ 5/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    For a few weeks, I’ve had Believing on my mind for a big sprint race this season, and it seems like George Boughey has had similar thoughts regarding the Group 1 Flying Five Stakes.

    She has three-quarters of a length to make up on Bradsell, but she ended up on the wrong side of the track and the race played out perfectly to suit Bradsell with a rapid pace up the far side rail.

    Connections have booked Ryan Moore on her return to the Curragh, a track she won at three starts ago in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes, and while stall one isn’t ideal, Fairyland won from that stall in 2019 and A Case Of You was second in 2021 from stall two.

    This has been the target for a while and her profile looks positive.

     

    4:10 Curragh – Cowardofthecounty @ 10/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    All season, I’ve been a fan of Cowardofthecounty, but he has underperformed more times than expected.

    His success on debut over course and distance was extremely taking and the form looks great considering Whistlejacket, the July Stakes and Prix Morny winner, was two and a half lengths back in second.

    After that, he finished seventh in the Coventry Stakes which is good form.

    Rashabar (the winner) chased home Whistlejacket in the Prix Morny, Cool Hoof Luke (the fourth) won the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes, and Al Qudra (the fifth) won the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes before nearly winning last night’s Grade 1 Summer Stakes in Woodbine.

    His break from the gates in the Anglesey Stakes cost him the race two starts ago, but he put that behind him to win the Group 3 Prix Francois Boutin last month.

    After Wolf Of Badenoch let down the Aomori City form yesterday and The Strikin Viking did the same for Henri Matisse’s form in the Gimcrack, it gives more scope to side with a bigger-priced fancy and that’s what Cowardofthecounty is.

     

    4:15 Longchamp – Rogue Lightning @ 4/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Over in France, there’s a great card that includes the Group 1 Prix Vermeille, but it’s the Group 3 Prix du Petit Couvert that has caught my attention.

    Rogue Lightning, for all he has performed below standard this season, has the standout form in this company.

    Firstly, his fifth to Highfield Princess from stall 19 in the Prix de l’Abbaye was a big performance and he then chased home Starlust in the Listed City Walls Stakes two starts later when giving five pounds away.

    The winner has finished third in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes subsequently and the third, Democracy Dilemma, has won the Listed Beverley Bullet since.

    The predicted soft ground in Paris should cause no issues as the four-year-old by Kodiac has won on good to firm and good to soft ground before.

    The cheekpieces have been applied for the first time and this looks like a smart piece of planning from Tom Clover and connections.

     

    5:55 Curragh – Mashhoor @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Finally, in the last race of Irish Champions Weekend, I’m returning to the horse I backed in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester in May as Mashhoor warrants respect in this company.

    He carries top weight here, but a mark of 105 is nine pounds higher than his last winning mark and Patrick McGettigan claims 10lbs off his back.

    I’m not going to claim I know everything about McGettigan, but he has one win under rules from nine rides and he has good experience in the pony racing ranks.

    Looking back on last year, he beat a slightly below-race-fit Al Riffa in the Group 3 International Stakes over course and distance before he ran a fair race behind Alflaila and My Prospero in the Group 2 York Stakes.

    He’s coming into this off a 112-day break, but the race conditions look suited to him and he’s a big price to find out if he’s back to his best.

  • Irish Champion Weekend | Four To Follow – Sunday

    Irish Champion Weekend | Four To Follow – Sunday

    It’s Ireland’s richest weekend, with some of the biggest prizes on offer and chance to write themselves into the history books, alongside legends of the games. Today we’re at The Curragh for the two-year-old horses. The feature is the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes, to crown the two-year-old champion of the year.

     

    Put To Sleep

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    3:00 – Moyglare Stud Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Bedtime Story @ 10/11 (General)

    If there’s any two-year-old that’s been impressive this season, it’s Bedtime Story. Four races and four wins, including an all dominant victory at Royal Ascot. However she was made to work by stablemate Exactly last time out over C&D, but is bred to go a bit further. She certainly has to be considered for each classic next season and can’t go opposed here.

     

    Repeat Performance

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    3:35 – Flying Five Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Bradsell @ 7/4 (Boylesports)

    Bradsell was extremely impressive last time out in the Nunthorpe Stake at York and seems to have become a new horse sine his mid-season injury. He finished seventh in this race last year, but call that a blip and look at the performances from this season. He is top rated too, and clearly the one to beat. Just be mindful of his form at the Curragh, where he hasn’t been placed.

    That could leave the door open for Believing, who is yet to win a Group One in her career. However, her best result of her career did come over C&D when beating Beautiful Diamond in the Group Two Sapphire Stakes. She’s then lost by three-quarters of a length each time since, when placed in the King George at Goodwood and the Nunthorpe at York. Despite being second favourite, she is the other to keep onside. Will be worth having the reverse forecast as well. 3/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Champion City

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    4:10 – Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Aomori City @ 9/2 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    It’s surprising that Henri Matisse is favourite. Yes he’s three from three, but hasn’t impressed in any of his three runs, winning at most by a length. Aomori City, on the other hand, has won by more than a length and has the form backed up well, with Cool Hoof Luke. With Charlie Appleby winning this race three times in the last six years, it might be another British champion, in a rather weak National Stakes.

     

    The Stayers Champion

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    4:45 – Irish St Leger (GROUP ONE) – Kyprios @ 8/11 (General)

    There’s only one horse to consider. Thanks to Sweet William winning the Doncaster Cup on Friday, Kyprios’ form has been boosted no end. Not that it needed to, since he is an incredible racehorse. Let’s not forget that this time last year we were fearing we might never see him on the track again. But now he is, and out for vengeance.

    And don’t forget Willie’s in the bumper. Vauban produced a career best on the flat to win at York last time out. And with the form boosted by Grosvenor Square in the Curragh Cup back in July too, Vauban can have a crack at his first flat Group One in his native isle. But it will be a struggle against the very best. 7/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | Jan Can Pull St Leger Upset

    St Leger Festival 2024 | Jan Can Pull St Leger Upset

    Notable Speech, Elmalka, Ezeliya, the might City of Troy; four classic season winners, but who will join the class of 2024 in Saturday’s St Leger Stakes at Doncaster. Could Jan Brueghel be the surprise package?

    A contest first run in 1776, the annual end-of-season trip to Donnie has been won in the past by the likes Nijinsky, Mutafaweq, Conduit and more recently Hurricane Lane.

    Having won a seventh Leger last season with Continuous, the bookies are again leaning on Aidan O’Brien, this time with Illinois, but could his half brother upset the odds?

     

    Unbeaten streak

    As early racing careers go, there are few that can match Jan Brueghel’s three wins from three, however, in the midst of such a stacked yard, the colt of Galileo feels a little bit of an afterthought.

    That could all change on Saturday.

    Of the seven-horse field of 3yos, the Irish runner may be the least experienced, but any winner of both the International and Gordon Stakes back to back has to be a contender – not least the latter, a victory of gritty proportions.

    Named after the 17th century Flemish painter, Jan Brueghel’s greatest asset looks to be a suiting for all going, with wins on good, soft and faster turf also.

    This weekend, the deck should carry no worries; the bigger test will be the huge jump-up in class, going from Group 3 to Group 1, without having a single Group 2 entry under the belt.

    That, and the small task of taking on the reigning Queen’s Vase winner, one of the best runners over 12 furlongs.

     

    Eighth challenge

    Jan Brueghel will be a strong opponent in Saturday’s St Leger, but Illinois heads the market, given his win at the Royal Meet in June.

    Illinois may only have two wins from seven, but his follow up runner-ups in the Grand Prix de Paris and Great Voltigeur could have easily gone differently with a little more fortune.

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    O’Brien’s third challenger, also a sibling of both Jan Brueghel and Illinois, Grosvenor Square may have drifted in the market, but can mount a stay.

    Unlike the latter, the mount of Gavin Ryan travels to Doncaster off a win in the Irish St Leger trial at the Curragh last month, and though with little experience on UK turf, can’t be overlooked.

     

    Got To be in with chance

    With the King of Ballydoyle holding three of the top four entries, the most likely to throw a spanner in the Irish works appears to be Hector Crouch and You Got To Me.

    Certainly if punter’s money is anything to go by, Ralph Beckett’s hope has been backed from 8/1 earlier in the week now to around 11/2 with Unibet.

    His own chances are not without merit with an Irish Oaks in the trophy room, Content with a runners-up place in the Yorkshire Oaks also.

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    Placing in both Ribblesdale and his prior classic, the Oaks proper, You Got To Me is very comfortable in elite company and will fancy his chances.

    Of the remaining trio of entries, Sunway for David Menuisier might be a nice e/w play.

    A two-time winner in France, the runner-up of last year’s Champagne Stakes at Doncaster forced Los Angeles’ hand in the Irish Derby this summer, proving his credentials.

    Drawn in stall 2, if Sunway gets the rub of the turf, French eyes could be smiling at 13/2 with 10Bet.

     

    The 2024 Betfred St Leger Stakes takes place on Saturday at 3:40pm UK time.

  • Irish Champion Weekend | Four To Follow – Saturday

    Irish Champion Weekend | Four To Follow – Saturday

    It’s Ireland’s richest weekend, with some of the biggest prizes on offer and chance to write themselves into the history books, alongside legends of the games. Today we’re at Leopardstown for the older horses. The feature is the Irish Champion Stakes, with another competitive field going to post. Can Auguste Rodin defend his title? Find out below.

     

    Beware The Brits

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    2:15 – Solonaway Stakes (Group Two) – Maljoom @ 3/1 (BetVictor)

    The Brits have a fantastic record in this race, with seven out of the last ten winners coming from over the Irish Sea. And it looks like it could be the same story. Maljoom was last seen in the Juddmonte International, which looked like an unusual route to go down. He’s now back down to his favoured mile, and has plenty of form to try and back up. He finished second behind Notable Speech in the Sussex Stakes and third behind Charyn in the Queen Anne. Dropped in class and first time cheekpieces, makes him look attractive to beat Diego Velazquez.

    Watch out for Poker Face for Simon & Ed Crisford. He always performs to his best at the end of the season, with an unbeaten two-year-old season back in 2022, two out of three wins last season and looks primed after finishing second in the Celebration Mile. That came on ground he didn’t suit so well, but will be fine over here. Worth considering at 10/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Watching From Above

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    2:50 – Coolmore Matron Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Fallen Angel @ 7/2 (William Hill)

    She hasn’t been seen since winning the Irish Guineas, but Fallen Angel is ready to go again. And the form from both the Irish and British Guineas have worked wonders in her favour. And after seeing her in person just this week, she looked ready for the challenge. And when Wathnan Racing buy her the week before her big date, they know that something is up. She’s an extremely talented filly that should put Porta Fortuna in her place.

    Don’t forget about the tough Rogue Millennium either. Her last race was in the Prix de Rothschild, with the form backed up again by Mqse De Sevigne. She finished second in last year’s race, so does have a good performance in her. She won’t mind the ground and proves a stiff challenge for the three-year-olds. 16/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Star Spangled Champion

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    3:25 – Irish Champion Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Los Angeles @ 13/2 (BetVictor)

    Reading the quotes on Economics doesn’t look good. It seems that whilst he is a good horse, he is representing the sponsors of the race. Plus he hasn’t won a Group One either and the form from the Dante hasn’t worked out well, and the form from his latest run in France hasn’t been tested. Auguste Rodin is a difficult character and is hard to be with, especially when there’s only been two dual winners.

    So I’ve opted for the three-year-old Los Angeles. Derby third, Irish Derby winner and Great Volitguer winner, against the St Leger favourite. He’s been consistent and reliable throughout this season, and has the added bonus of C&D having won the Derby trial here back in April. To say he’s second string is a bit of an insult, and upsets aren’t uncommon in this race.

     

    Fast And Furious

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    4:35 – Pentingo Handicap (Premier Handicap) – Nurburgring @ 13/2 (General)

    After succeeding at the Galway Festival over hurdles, Nurburgring is looking for another big handicap prize, this time on the flat. Surprisingly he’s dropped a pound after not impressing over a mile and one furlong last time out, but this mile and five furlong handicap will be much more up his street. He hasn’t done well in the two flat handicaps in his career, but with a win under his belt this summer, he can go big prize hunting again.

    Another jumper trained by Joseph O’Brien is Comfort Zone. He finished second in this race last year off a mark of 86, and is only two pounds higher this season. He came near at Galway, finishing third over hurdles, which has been backed up by winner The Wallpark since. But with this the only flat handicap on his agenda, it’s worth siding with him. 11/1 (William Hill).

    Click here for St Leger Tips.

    The very best of luck!

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day Three

    St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day Three

    It’s the final classic of the year, the St Leger Festival at Doncaster. This Festival allows us to not only crown the winner of the oldest classic, but also to watch out for the future with plenty two-year-old action too. Today on day three, it’s the big one. The St Leger might look a little subdued on paper with the lack of runners, but it’s still tricky to call.

     

    Beware The Wolf

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    1:50 – Betfred Champagne Stakes (Group Two) – Wolf Of Badenoch @ 7/2 (General)

    I’m trying to work out why Chancellor is favourite, and not Wolf Of Badenoch. He finished second in a Group Two at Goodwood, which is usually the form race, and has the form backed up by Cool Hoof Luke who he beat into fourth. Out of the two horses rated in the race, he’s miles clear at 106 and stands for a lot more. He’s also a C&D winner on similar ground too when he won on debut. Hard not to oppose.

     

    Love Story

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    2:25 – Betfred Portland (Heritage Handicap) – American Affair @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    Last week he was desperately close to winning in the Be Friendly Handicap, but American Affair could well go close again. Paul Mulrennan is back on top, who has won on him before. He keeps her mark of 92 as Shagraan now goes above 100, which gives American Affair a chance to overturn the result. He won’t mind the ground, having won at Musselburgh on a similar surface early on in the year. He’s also drawn on the rail on the far side, which can be an advantage.

    Vintage Clarets was eighth in a bunch finish at York last time out in the Symphony Group handicap, and has been lowered two pounds for the run. That puts him on a mark in between two winning marks. That should mean if conditions are to suit, he won’t be far away. He’s also drawn over on the far side, so a slight track advantage as well. 12/1 (General).

     

    Poetry In Motion

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    3:00 – Betfred Park Stakes (Group Two) – Poet Master @ 5/1 (Betfred, Boylesports)

    Poet Master might not be a name that has hit the heights this season, but he has been impressive. Especially in his last race at The Curragh when winning by almost four lengths. Mutasarref, third, went and won the Group Three Desmond Stakes and has a good chance in the Solonaway Stakes over at The Curragh today. With the form backed up, and a winner on this card last year, Poet Master is the one to stick with. Particularly with the price.

     

    Three Of A Kind

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    3:40 – Betfred St Leger (GROUP ONE) – Illinois @ 2/1 (General)

    Aidan O’Brien holds the all the cards in this race, once again. With three extremely talented colts, you could make a case for all of them. But Illinois has been bred for the race. A half-brother to Danedream and black type throughout his pedigree made him look like a Classic winner on paper. He won the big trial for this race, the Queen’s Vase, and was second in two other pointer races in the Grand Prix de Paris and the Great Voltiguer. Only beaten by a neck last time out shows that he will suit a mile and six furlongs down to the ground.

    A little forgotten about is Grosvenor Square. Many people will look at him as a pace angle, but don’t forget what he achieved this season. A 20 length win in the Irish St Leger Trial and second to Tower Of London, against older horses too, in the Curragh Cup. Whilst Jan Breughel has impressed the pundits, Grosvenor Square should not go unheard of. Worth a go at 11/2 (BetVictor).

    Click here for Irish Champions Weekend Tips.

    The very best of luck!

  • St Leger and Irish Champion Stakes | Nurburgring driving on

    St Leger and Irish Champion Stakes | Nurburgring driving on

    Saturday is a good day for horse racing as the St Leger and Irish Champion Stakes take centre stage across an action-packed afternoon.

    Day two at the Leger meeting proved to be fruitful thanks to Aesterius and Sweet William, so let’s hope the momentum can roll on into today.

     

    2:25 Doncaster – Shagraan @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    For anyone that has followed the fancies on Twitter or TikTok over the last month or so, you’ll know the success Shagraan has delivered in these big-field handicaps.

    Mick Appleby has a good sprinter on his hands who, after two wins and a solid fifth in the Symphony Group Handicap, has only gone up in the handicap by eight pounds.

    The handicapper only gave him three pounds for his victory at Haydock seven days ago, which seems on the lenient side, so why not stick with him here?

    As a two-year-old, he clashed with Asadna, Big Evs, Purosangue, Task Force, and Seven Questions, all providing a solid base of form to go off.

    Furthermore, his age means he gets 2lbs from his elders and there are few things better than sticking with a progressive sprinter who is in lightning form, so he’s my horse for the Portland.

     

    3:25 Leopardstown – Ghostwriter @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Any horse with a piece of City Of Troy form deserves respect, so the fact that Ghostwriter has finished behind the Derby winner twice this season is a big positive.

    The Invincible Spirit colt has great form in the book, starting with his fourth to Notable Speech, Rosallion, and Haatem in the 2000 Guineas.

    Having run well on heavy ground, a less-than-ideal surface, in the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club, he chased home City Of Troy in the Coral-Eclipse and Juddmonte International.

    That first run looks solid as Al Riffa went on to win a Group 1 in Germany and See The Fire, the fourth, won the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York.

    The Juddmonte International, quality-wise, speaks for itself with Calandagan, Bluestocking, and the already-mentioned son of Justify, so there’s a lot going for him in this aspect.

    Three-year-olds have won seven of the last 10 renewals, so it will be tough for the likes of Auguste Rodin and Luxembourg to give six pounds away.

    For these reasons, Ghostwriter is the horse I’m siding with.

     

    3:40 Doncaster – Deira Mile @ 16/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    It’s been highlighted before, but the form of this year’s Derby is working out nicely, which gives a boost to the chances of Deira Mile who was fourth in the Epsom Classic.

    City Of Troy speaks for himself, but Ambiente Friendly and Los Angeles fought out the Irish Derby, Bellum Justum won the Nashville Derby recently, Ancient Wisdom won the Bahrain Trophy Stakes in July, Tabletalk won the Melrose and Kamboo won in the Racing League.

    His last run in the Listed August Stakes at Windsor was fine for a horse who was making his first start for 84 days, and trainer Owen Burrows even said to the Racing Post that it was a prep race for the Leger.

    He looks like a horse who can stay the extra two furlongs considering he ran through the line at both Epsom (when he came wide around the bend) and Windsor, so I’ll give him a chance here.

     

    4:35 Leopardstown – Nurburgring @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    On the day after Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond, and James May hung up their driving gloves after their final adventure on The Grand Tour, it’s fitting that Nurburgring – named after Germany’s legendary racetrack – is back out after his Galway Hurdle success.

    The four-year-old by Zoffany is well-known to us jumps fans thanks to his placed effort in the Grade 1 Champion Four Year Old Hurdle and Grade 2 Mercedes-Benz South Dublin Juvenile Hurdle.

    But, his exploits on the Flat merit good consideration for a horse who has a Flat rating of just 90.

    As a three-year-old, he beat the now 107-rated Queenstown in a Navan maiden and then finished a good fifth in the Listed Yeats Stakes behind Peking Opera and the now 111-rated Covent Garden.

    That’s good form, and we know he’ll be race-fit as his Galway Hurdle win was just 44 days ago.

    Rather than looking at him in a race like this and thinking ‘It’s a prep run’, much like his run at Leopardstown in July, there’s plenty of reason to say today is his day.

    Firstly, the race is worth €88,500 to the winner, so it’s fair to say that connections would like that prize money, and if he wins, he gives himself a chance at running in next month’s €600,000 Irish Cesarewitch.

    A rating of 90 wouldn’t get him into the race as it stands, but if he got a 7lb penalty for winning today, he would be right on the edge of getting into a race he is the 7/1 ante-post favourite for.

    Of course, not everything goes this easily to plan, but Nurburgring has plenty of things in his favour today.

  • St Leger Festival 2024 Day 2 | Leap of Faith

    St Leger Festival 2024 Day 2 | Leap of Faith

    Yesterday was frustrating, but there are a few interesting horses to note on day two of the Doncaster St Leger meeting.

    January ran a good race in the May Hill Stakes when finishing second at 6/1 and Night Sparkle was a tough watch in the Park Hill Stakes, so the crossbar was certainly hit on Thursday.

    With this in mind, let’s hope for a bit more success today.

    1:50 Doncaster – Quantum Leap @ 10/1 – 1pt EW

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    In the opening contest of the day, it’s worth chancing Quantum Leap to make up for last year’s disappointing effort in this race.

    The New Approach gelding has run with credit all season and he was a notable eye-catcher on his last start in the Stayers Handicap at York.

    Samui, the runner-up, went on to finish a good third behind ABSURBE and CAIUS CHORISTER in the Chester Stakes on his last start to help give the form some substance.

    His current rating of 82 is the same mark he had when winning at Haydock in July 2023 and he could easily improve past this rating based on his debut success over the now 92-rated Aztec Empire, a horse who has good form with Sweet William.

    He’s a slow starter, which is a small concern, but there’s a small thing which makes me think this has been a bit of a plan considering he ran in the 2023 renewal, so I’m willing to back him today.

    3:00 Doncaster – Aesterius @ 5/1 – 1pt EW

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    The Flying Childers looks like a race that could see one improve past the horses at the head of the market, and Aesterius looks ready to do so

    His form from the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot is working out really nicely thanks to a number of horses.

    Tropical Storm beat him that day, but Aesterius came from the other side of the track and he was staying on at the same rate as the now Group 1 winner Whistlejacket who finished fourth.

    He was staying on behind Big Mojo at Goodwood before Mr Lightside slightly bumped him in the final half a furlong, but he put that behind him to win in France on his latest start.

    I think he has some quality and is worth a play here.

    3:35 Doncaster – Sweet William @ 15/8 – 2pt Win

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    The Doncaster Cup takes centre stage today and it’s a good opportunity for the Sweet William to get a big victory on the board.

    His efforts behind Kyprios in the Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup are standout and he even beat Trueshan, who reappears today, in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown.

    Furthermore, Vauban came out of the Gold Cup and won the Lonsdale Cup to frank the form.

    John & Thady Gosden have a strong hand in the race with Gregory towards the head of the market, but Sweet William is a more consistent horse and his form when second to Absurde in last year’s Ebor has worked out well.

    5:20 Doncaster – Wheels Of Fire @ 17/2 – 1pt EW

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    Richard Hannon has always thought plenty of Wheels Of Fire this season, so it’s interesting to see him step into nursery company off a mark of 84.

    The Mehmas colt had a confidence booster at Lingfield last month when justifying odds of 1/3 over five furlongs and the handicapper has left him alone for the effort.

    Before that, he didn’t show his true potential, though his efforts showed plenty of promise.

    He finished third at Goodwood in a hot maiden and the winner, Jouncy, finished second to Symbol Of Strength in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes.

    That form looks good in a race like this and I’m hoping for a big run today.

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | Kinross Set For Frolic in Park

    St Leger Festival 2024 | Kinross Set For Frolic in Park

    Saturday edition of this year’s St Leger Festival comes with a loaded card, but before the main event, a wide-open Betfred Park Stakes sees Kinross looking to regain what was his.

    As 10 runners line up over 7f once more, defending champion, Sandrine, remains absent with the prize of 80k up for grabs.

    Indeed, in the mare’s stead, Kinross looks ready to stake a claim at the top once more.

     

    Past glories

    For a horse of such breeding and off the hooves of such stellar fledgling years, it is hard to pinpoint just where the wheels came off for Kinross.

    As a 6yo, the son of Kingman was leaving all in his trail.

    Building on from victories in the 2021 John of Gaunt and Lennox Stakes, the gelding was the apple of Ralph Beckett’s eye.

    Going on a victorious four-race winning streak with Frankie Dettori at the back end of 2022, the City of York and Park Stakes were capped by another win on Qipco Champions Day.

    However, since then, though a second win was had in the Lennox last year – also defending the City of York – it is five trips, no wins.

    Indeed, the last time Kinross took the winning post it was against Audience on the Knavesmire in August of 2023.

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    Nevertheless, there look to be two factors in his favour this weekend.

    Firstly, the last runner Kinross beat, the aforementioned Audience, was a withdrawal earlier this week – he himself looking for a second crack after being beaten 12 months ago.

    Without the favourite, Kinross’ chances are significantly boosted, as they are by the rain that has arrived this week.

    The gelding can go in all conditions, but if pushed, Beckett would agree good to soft decks suit his charge.

    So, two years on from one of this big career wins, is the 2024 Park dropping into Kinross’ saddle?

     

    Leader of the pack?

    Standing in the way of Kinross and a second Park Stakes, the Gosdens’ sole remaining entry, Lead Artist will look to live up to his moniker.

    Coming here off a win in the Bonhams Thoroughbred, the colt last made the trip to Yorkshire in May, winning the Darley EBF Maiden at York, a month after impressing in the Wood Ditton.

    The field here will be of greater pedigree, but Kieran Shoemark will fancy his chances.

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    Meanwhile, the price angle could come in the shape of the in-form Al Shabab Storm.

    A four-time career winner, trainer Andrew Balding will look to hold onto the crown with his burgeoning 3yo Chester starlet.

    Having won three times this term, his last four outings have been blotted only by his most recent visit to Cheshire last month, but comes here with Group 3 success in Germany.

    Al Shabab was fourth on Doncaster debut at the end of last season, and will want to improve here and can at 15/2 with BetVictor.

     

    The Betfred Park Stakes takes place on Saturday at 3pm UK time.

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day Two

    St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day Two

    It’s the final classic of the year, the St Leger Festival at Doncaster. This Festival allows us to not only crown the winner of the oldest classic, but also to watch out for the future with plenty two-year-old action too. Today on day two, more two-year-old in Flying Scotsman and Flying Childers Stakes. And the stayers are out in force for the Group Two Doncaster Cup.

     

    Successive Winner

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    1:50 – Betfred Mallard Handicap – Subsequent @ 9/4 (Betfred)

    When you’ve had three wins in your debut season, people will notice. Subsequent is looking for win number four and is impressing with every run. His latest victory at Newmarket showed he’s progressing incredibly well, and handling the steps up in trip equally well. It’s only a four pound rise, which looks fair and gives him a fighting chance.

    However, only two three-year-olds have won this race in the previous 10 runnings which means that older horses do have a slight advantage. Shadow Dance looks a particular threat after his impressive victory at York, when he switched inside and outside before turning on the burners to just overpower Lieber Power by a neck. With that much switching, and the power inside the half furlong to win, the step up in trip should be interesting. 7/2 (William Hill).

     

    Two Good To Be True?

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    2:25 – Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed) – Jonquil @ 11/10 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Jonquil was incredibly impressive on debut, and showed more maturity than you would see in most two-year-old debutants. His ability to keep the power going when switched to the outside really caught the eye. However, more experienced horses do win this race more often than not.

    However the last time a one raced horse won the Flying Scotsman was Sangarius. Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, ridden by Ryan Moore and owned and bred by Juddmonte. Lightning can strike twice.

    Mr Chaplin is a likeable horse and certainly has the credentials to win this race. He looks to have more of a preference to good ground, rather than good-to-firm ground after being well found out in the Acomb last time out. But with preferred ground and a win over the distance, he can certainly hit the frame. 12/1 (General).

     

    If Carlsberg did Two-Year-Old races…

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    3:00 – Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) – Big Mojo @ 3/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    An extremely electric race, with pace galore, it’s all about going on form. Big Mojo was disappointing at York last time out. However, with both Symbol of Strength and Camille Pissaro franking the form, Big Mojo should go a bit better. Trainer Michael Appleby says the ground is fine for him, and he’s top rated out of the field. There’s a lot of reasons to side with him in this fierce competition.

    Tropical Storm has good each-way claims. He beat current favourite, Magnum Force, by a neck last time out at York (even if Magnum Force was denied a clear run). The form from the Roses Stakes hasn’t been tested a lot, but he came from the best two-year-old of Royal Ascot which has paid dividends since. Forget his Goodwood run and he should be up there again. 9/1 (BetVictor).

    Another Michael Appleby horse that is forgotten about is Mr Lightside. Since winning impressively at Nottingham, he’s finished within a length and half of the winner in his two subsequent runs. His impressive third at Goodwood is the form to latch onto and if he can match his Nottingham win, plus the impressive run at Goodwood, he should outrun odds of 20/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Pair Of Kings

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    3:35 – Betfred Howard Wright Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2) – Sweet William @ 15/8 (General)

    The Gosden pair of Sweet William and Gregory look to be the one-two here, but is it that simple. I have major doubts about Gregory’s ability, with the best result this season third, three lengths behind Vauban last time out. Plus with the Doncaster Cup two miles and two furlongs, he may struggle as he did last year.

    Therefore, Sweet William has to be the pick. He was the nearest challenger to Kyprios at Goodwood last time out and did finish second in this race last year. Without the might of Kyprios and Vauban in this race, Sweet William has the potential to properly join the conversation in the stayers’ league.

    The very best of luck!

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | William Looks Sweet in Doncaster Cup

    St Leger Festival 2024 | William Looks Sweet in Doncaster Cup

    The final flat festival of the season is upon us and Friday at the St Leger sees the Betfred Doncaster Cup Stakes.

    A contest last year won by Hollie Doyle and Trueshan, this season’s renewal sees another small field but one which presents an even playing field amongst a familiar band.

    And for Sweet William, the chance to get back to Group 2 success.

     

    Term of transition

    The 2024 flat season for Sweet William has not brought the same resounding success as a 4yo.

    Winner of the Coral Summer Handicap at Glorious Goodwood 13 months back, since then just one win in seven outings have come for John and Thady Gosden’s strong hoper.

    However, that may belie the true tale.

    The offspring of See The Stars may have lacked that winning feeling, but all four trips this term have carried promise.

    Twice a bridesmaid to the returning Kyprios in both Ascot Gold and Goodwood Cups, Roger Havlin – who jumps aboard for a 14th time on Friday – has been a figure of frustration.

    Yet, with no Kyprios in sight this week, nor Royal meet runner-up, Trawlerman, Sweet William could get his moment at redemption.

     

    A True threat?

    Despite a wetter than average UK summer, the main flat festivals have been met by drier, but above all, nippy ground.

    However, this week’s omnipotent threat of rain leaves the Doncaster Cup going up in the air.

    That could bring the defending champ, Trueshan, back into the picture, which, for Alan King’s rain-seeker, will be welcome.

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    The defending champion, a 10/3 winner by a just over a length over Sweet William, ended last season on a high with a following Prix du Cadran, but 2024 has seen multiple withdrawals.

    After a campaign waiting in the wings, then somewhat against expectations, Trueshan was rolled out at Sandown and won the Coral Marathon, but in the Goodwood Cup again had no finish.

    Here however, If the going switches to good to soft – conditions in which the 8yo gelding has won on five occasions – Trueshan may not only be in the shake-up to place, but to retain his crown.

     

    Contenders

    After both Tashkhan and Harbour Wind were withdrawn on Wednesday morning, the field is down to six, and all but Wise Eagle have sized each other up in the stalls on more than one occasion.

    The Doncaster Cup sees Gregory with his latest shot after a disappointing term, but will have to improve in failing to step up in trip over 2m.

    Meanwhile, Point Lonsdale is starting to gain traction in the market as Aidan O’Brien’s sole entry, but like Gregory will have to stay after finishing seventh in the Lonsdale Cup a few weeks ago.

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    Finally, what of Coltrane? Could trainer Andrew Balding see his charge repeat victory from two years ago.

    A horse BestofBets have championed frequently, Oisin Murphy was flat last 12 months ago, but took the Sagaro Stakes in May.

    The trip would be a struggle on soft turf, but with the going set to be more leant toward good ground, it would be no surprise to see another tussle with the aforementioned Trueshan.

     

    The Betfred Doncaster Cup Stakes takes place on Friday at 3:35pm UK time.