Newbury Lockinge Day Bets | Tempted with a Rally

Royal Ascot Day 5, July Festival

The fourth and final column of the week focuses on Newbury Lockinge Day after three days of action at the York Dante Festival.

Yesterday’s bets resulted in marginal profit as both of the each-way plays placed while Gallant Lion failed to hit the frame over at Newbury.

So, let’s kick on with Saturday’s main bets.

 

2:25 Newbury – Relief Rally @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1.5pt Win

Embed from Getty Images

Relief Rally is a horse I grew a strong connection with last season, though Saturday’s better ground over return to six furlongs makes her case obvious here.

Her outing at Newbury over seven furlongs last month was a fair effort, though she found the extra furlong too much on her first start of the season.

Her pre-race market support also suggests there was some confidence behind her, and the form looks solid as Elmalka has come out and won the 1000 Guineas since.

As for last season, she was one of the sprinters of the season and what she did in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes was very impressive.

Her form is the best in the book, and she gets weight from her rivals, so her 9/2 price looks more than fair.

 

3:00 Newbury – Individualism @ 10/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

Embed from Getty Images

The London Gold Cup is a handicap I look forward to every year and, more times than not, the piece of form is worth following for the rest of the season.

Although King’s Gambit initially caught my eye, only two horses have won the race on their first start of the season in the last 10 years, so he’ll need to be on his best form to win this.

With that in mind, Individualism is the horse I’ve landed on who, admittedly, has received recent market support.

The 10/1 available is still fair for this half-brother to Subjectivist as the step up to 1m2f will suit him down to the ground.

Having run well at Musselburgh when well-backed, race fitness is now on his side and some pieces of form from his juvenile season are starting to look very attractive

On his third start, he finished ahead of Kevin Ryan’s Volterra (now rated 91 having won a Class 3 Newmarket handicap off 82) and he then finished his season in a seven-furlong Newmarket handicap.

From that race, the winner (Zoum Zoum) is now rated 104 after a Listed win in France, the third (Balmacara) is now rated 94 having won two on the bounce subsequently, and the fourth (Economics) has won the Group 2 Dante Stakes.

Although the Charlie Johnston yard has failed to pick up too many winners recently, their horses are running into form and a bold showing from this well-bred three-year-old can be expected.

 

4:10 Newbury – Rumstar @ 25/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

Embed from Getty Images

A return to better ground and six furlongs will help Rumstar who looks overpriced in the fifth race at Newbury.

The four-year-old has contested three handicaps in his life, winning one, unseating his rider in another, and then disappointing in his first start of this season on heavy ground over five furlongs.

Away from his minimal stints in handicap company, he is a high-class animal having won a Group 3 as a juvenile before he finished fifth in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last year.

That piece of form is particularly strong as Shaquille won the race with Little Big Bear, Swingalong, Ocean Quest, Shouldvebeenaring, Lezoo, and Mischief Magic also in the race.

He also has form at Newbury as he ran a fair race in last year’s Listed Carnarvon Stakes before a solid sixth in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes.

Now down to a mark of 102, that seems workable based on his sparks of Group 1 form and he’s had 41 days since his seasonal opener to improve physically.

 

4:45 Newbury – Tempus @ 28/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

Embed from Getty Images

Finally, in what is the biggest-priced fancy of the day, Tempus can outrun his odds on his return to the turf.

The eight-year-old by Kingman has a rock-solid record when running after a break of 50 days or more (three wins, one second, and two fourths from six runs).

His mark of 99 is his lowest rating for just over three years, and in that time he has won the 2022 Porsche Handicap at Ascot off 103, finished third in the 2022 Royal Hunt Cup off 101, and was a respectable seventh in the 2023 Royal Hunt Cup.

As for last season’s form, his fifth in the Listed Paradise Stakes looks solid as Chindit was second in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes on his next start, Cash ran well in a hot renewal of the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes, and Lusail was sixth in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes.

There is a possibility that one eye could be on Royal Ascot for a third tilt at the Royal Hunt Cup, but his mark is too dangerous to ignore on Saturday.

Live Horse Racing Odds

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.