Best Of Bets

Author: Ashley Symonds

  • New Year Day Racing Belle with a Lion heart

    New Year Day Racing Belle with a Lion heart

    What better way to kick off 2024 than some New Year’s Day Racing across the likes of Cheltenham, Fairyhouse, and Tramore?

    As many will know, Cheltenham is a local track of mine and as such, I’ll be attending Monday’s meeting, but horses are running in both the UK and Ireland that I’m keen to keep onside.

    So, for the first column in 2024, here are my full fancies.

     

    Win Bets

    12:30 Tramore – Belle The Lioness @ 4/1

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    Anyone who took note of my pre-Cheltenham Festival chat around the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle will know my love for Belle The Lioness.

    She didn’t live up to my hype when it came to March, but with a summer on her back and race fitness on her side, I’m backing her to return to the winners’ enclosure on her handicap debut.

    The seven-year-old first came onto my radar after her staying-on second to Liberty Dance, a 131-rated mare, at Thurles in December. The Model Kingdom was back in third, who is also rated in the 130s, and she managed to get relatively near Impaire Et Passe on her next start at Punchestown.

    Although she was disappointing at Wexford in November, her run suggests that she either badly needed it or hated the ground. With form on soft to heavy from her bumper victory in April 2022, one would suggest that it was her lack of race fitness that contributed to her defeat.

    Hopefully, Henry de Bromhead has her back because off a mark of 119, I think she could be well-handicapped.

     

    2:10 Exeter – Geezer Rockstar @ 7/4

    Over at Exeter, another horse who I’ve been excited to see this season is Geezer Rockstar and he is set to make his second start over hurdles.

    Harry Fry’s five-year-old was slightly disappointing on hurdles debut at Taunton last-time-out, but I’m not willing to give up on him based on what he showed at Taunton in a bumper in April.

    Furthermore, the opposition at Exeter doesn’t look the strongest; Pentire Head is probably his best rival based on his second to Johnnywho at Taunton in March, but he is still a work in progress and will likely be better next season.

    With this in mind, Geezer Rockstar deserves respect and has plenty of scope to return to the winners’ enclosure.

     

     

    3:50 Cheltenham – La Marquise @ 5/2

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    In the last at Cheltenham, La Marquise impressed immensely on her first start at Stratford in early November.

    Having spoken to Jamie Snowden prior to her first run, he was hoping for a good run though she was always going to come on for her debut outing.

    She certainly did produce a “good run” as the four-year-old by Beaumec De Houelle, a first-season sire who beat Pic D’Orhy in the Grade 1 Prix Cambaceres in 2018, quickened away nicely on soft ground to win by two lengths. Gavin Sheehan only required one use of the whip at Stratford, so there should be more to come.

    Both the second, Love Tree, and the fifth, Dameofthecotswolds, have won since, so hopefully La Marquise can oblige in receipt of weight from the boys.

     

    Each-way Bets

    1:20 Catterick – Chase A Fortune @ 12/1

    Small fields have made each-way options difficult at Cheltenham, though there’s a chance that Chase A Fortune could be well-handicapped over at Catterick.

    The Chris Grant-trained six-year-old has underperformed in handicap company this season which has been slightly surprising based on his 15-length maiden hurdle success over course and distance in February.

    Looking at his previous form in novice hurdles, the Cannock Chase gelding was racing against eventual 120-rated horses like Chapel Green, Don Hollow, and Astromachia.

    Since then, the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 105 and with his previous form on soft ground, today could see him return to his best.

     

    2:40 Cheltenham – My Bobby Dazzler @ 12/1

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    In a race full of questions – namely, if a few improving horses can handle a rise in the weights – it looks as if My Boby Dazzler could do some damage off a handy mark of 119.

    Mel Rowley’s nine-year-old has a fair record around Prestbury Park based on his two fourth-place efforts in the 2021-22 season.

    Although he has promising form on good ground, namely when behind The Changing Man and Young Butler in a valuable handicap at Haydock in April, he bolted up on deplorable ground in December 2021 off a mark of 118.

    Connections tried their hand at fences with My Bobby Dazzler and he did well to win at Worcester in June before a good fourth at Ludlow on his last start, though the Malinas gelding is back over hurdles which should suit him.

    His last few runs have suggested the old spark is still there and if that is the case, today could be a good day to keep the faith.

  • Long Walk Hurdle Day | Fry’s long-term Ascot Plan

    Long Walk Hurdle Day | Fry’s long-term Ascot Plan

    Last week we had Cheltenham on our TV screens and seven days later, Long Walk Hurdle Day at Ascot provides us with a pre-Christmas cracker on Saturday.

    Despite a few unlucky results with Malina Girl, Nurse Susan got the column out of trouble in the 90th minute last Saturday, so let’s hope that form can continue.

    Before we kick on, this week’s column looks a little bit different. The first bit will cover shorter-priced ‘win’ propositions that interest me on Saturday while the second half will highlight intriguing each-way plays.

     

    Real chance for Real Stone

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    12:20 Haydock – Doyen Star @ 11/4 with BetVictor

    ITV Racing is showing action from both Haydock and Ascot over the weekend, though before the mainstream cameras turn their attention to the northern track, consideration should be given to Doyen Star in the 12:20 at Haydock.

    At the time of writing, he is the outsider of three at 11/4, though he is officially just one pound behind the market leader, Inedit Star, and he is much more unexposed than Nick Kent’s five-year-old.

    On just his second start over hurdles, the Evan Williams-trained five-year-old beat Crebilly comfortably at Chepstow over two miles; the runner-up won impressively since off 127, ran well twice at Cheltenham this season, and now has an official rating of 139.

    Although he faded in his chasing debut, that was in the Grade 2 “Rising Stars” Novices’ Chase on his first start at two-and-a-half miles, so with race fitness on his side, and returning to two miles, I think he’s overpriced.

    2:05 Haydock – Jagwar @ 15/8 with BetVictor

    Fast-forward to 2:05 and Jagwar looks a cut above the field on his handicap debut at 2/1.

    Although Inthewaterside has failed to frank the form, it was a huge run from the four-year-old over two-and-a-half miles at Aintree as he travelled with plenty of speed but was just outstayed. With an opening mark of 119, he should oblige.

    2:40 Haydock – Real Stone @ 11/8 with William Hill

    Another who should do the same is Real Stone 35 minutes later in the 2:40 at Haydock.

    He was a facile 20-length winner at Haydock in soft conditions last month and despite his eight-pound rise in the weights – which looks lenient – Tristan Durrell takes off a valuable five pounds and he is a strong favourite.

    3:35 Ascot – Altobelli @ 7/2 with William Hill

    Over at Ascot, the Betfair Exchange Trophy has been the season-long plan for Altobelli and following his good reappearance over course and distance, there’s no need to lose faith at 7/2.

    Expectations for his last start in the Seat Unique Handicap Hurdle were average as he was always going to come on for the outing, yet he ran a blinder to finish second and even the third, Bad, has since come out and finished second in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury to frank the form.

    Harry Fry is a master a readying one for a big day and hopefully, that can be the case with this son of Maxios.

     

    Haydock is right for Park

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    12:40 Ascot – Illogical Logic @ 25/1 with William Hill

    Having gone through the cards a few times over, there are a few each-way angles I’ve landed on that could outrun their odds.

    The first comes from Ascot as I’m taking a small chance of Illogical Logic in the opener for Christian Williams at 25/1.

    The five-year-old showed plenty of promise on his last start in what was his first attempt at two-and-a-half miles.

    This run came after two runs over an inadequate trip of two miles, though on all three occasions he travelled prominently yet found himself outpaced.

    Today’s step up to three miles will suit much better and with an opening handicap mark of 107, he has the scope to be better than this mark.

    1:30 Haydock – Dr Kananga @ 12/1 with William Hill

    Moving over to Haydock, an early Christmas present may be coming the way of Ben Clarke in the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase as Dr Kananga (12/1) is a well-handicapped horse with suitable conditions.

    The nine-year-old is very honest having had an extended period in the point-to-point and hunter chase scene, though since running in better races, he has bolted up at Sandown off a mark of 125 and finished a good second to Eva’s Oskar at Exeter off 135.

    Last season was disappointing, though connections had the plan of preparing him in a hurdles race before a big handicap chase tilt on two occasions.

    For example, he ran in a novice hurdle at Bangor (when second to Maximilian) before a stab at the Becher Handicap Chase, and he then ran in the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle before he ran in the Kim Muir.

    This didn’t work out, but he had wind issues throughout the campaign, so with a wind-op in the bag and now down to a mark of 128, he should go well in heavy ground at Haydock.

    3:15 Haydock – Bushypark @ 11/1 with William Hill

    In the Haydock finale, there’s reason to believe Bushypark could be ready to go close for Philip Kirby at 11/1.

    His first two starts of the season have lacked positivity, though the handicapper has dropped him a helpful six pounds in the handicap to a mark of 115, a full four pounds below his last winning mark.

    Furthermore, Joe Williamson, who has ridden him to success on two occasions, claims a valuable five pounds off his back.

    Although he may be regressing slightly, there’s no denying the fact he is very well-handicapped on all of his old form and his 2/3 around Haydock.

    If he can get an easy lead from the front, he could sail through the soft conditions and be hard to catch.

  • Cheltenham December Gold Cup | Super Scottish holding leading Irish hopes

    Cheltenham December Gold Cup | Super Scottish holding leading Irish hopes

    Anytime action is on at Prestbury Park, the weekend is always an enjoyable one and that doesn’t change for this year’s Cheltenham December Gold Cup meeting.

    Yesterday saw a potential winner of the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle strut her stuff on her maiden outing at the course while the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase revealed a potential Grand National horse.

    Before we start talking about today’s fancies, a quick word should go to the ground conditions on day one of the Cheltenham Christmas meeting as times from the first three races suggested the course was in great nick.

    The overall times weren’t too far off standard and although they did slow up throughout the day, a dry night could suggest the course is riding just a small bit quicker than the official going of soft.

    Anyway, with a big day of action ahead of us, here are my main plays.

     

    1:15 Cheltenham – Aucunrisque @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    The mid-week money came for In Excelsis Deo at the head of the market, and although he should be given good consideration, I thought Chris Gordon’s Aucunrisque could be the forgotten horse of the afternoon.

    Last season’s Betfair Hurdle winner mixed between hurdles and fences last season, with Gordon keen to make use of both handicap marks in the different disciplines.

    So, while his hurdles mark rose to 147 after his Newbury success, his chase mark remained at 144 and even received a two-pound drop after last month’s fifth in the Jim Barry Hurst Park Handicap Chase.

    Although a rating of 142 is four pounds above his last winning mark, the seven-year-old has good form in the book to suggest he could still win off a lenient mark.

    Last season’s campaign began with a novice chase success over Jetoile at Uttoxeter, form that looks good as the runner-up has improved 20lbs thanks to three victories, one of which was in the Old Roan Chase.

    After that, he finished second off 138 to Frere D’Armes at Newbury, a race that saw the third, Datsalrightgino, win the Coral Gold Cup subsequently and the fifth, Balco Coastal, finish second to Gerri Colombe in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase in February.

    One month later, Aucunrisque finished a good second to Boothill in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase before his Betfair Hurdle success in the new year.

    One run over fences and one run over hurdles this season should have him race fit for today’s task.

     

    1:50 Cheltenham – So Scottish @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    All week, So Scottish has been my main hope for the December Gold Cup, and as of this morning, the money has come for him.

    6/1 is now just a memory as bookies have squeezed the six-year-old into 9/2 and 4/1, and you can see why.

    Emmet Mullins’ improving Martaline gelding disappointed at the backend of last season, but before his average seventh in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival, he ran well when second to Boothill (then rated 140, now rated 18lbs higher) over 2m1f.

    Prior to that run, he won over 2m4f at Carlisle and thrashed Railway Hurricane, who reopposes today, at Tipperary in October 2022.

    With a run under his belt at Gowran Park on heavy ground, he should prefer the step up in trip and good racing ground, so hopefully, he can make use of his lenient 141 rating.

    However, he isn’t the only one I’m backing in the December Gold Cup.

     

    1:50 Cheltenham – Do Your Job @ 28/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW

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    In case he is ready to win off a very attractive mark, I’m having a saver on Do Your Job at a big price each way.

    The nine-year-old has disappointed on his last five runs, though the form of his victory at Ayr in the Grade 2 Future Champion Novices’ Chase in 2022 looks very good.

    The second, Minella Drama, has officially improved 11lbs since, and Il Ridoto, a general 8/1 chance for today’s feature contest, was back in third.

    Furthermore, he got to within 10 lengths of Edwardstone in the 2021 Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase, a race that had the now 149-rated Solo back in third.

    If you completely discount last season, Lucinda Russell’s Fame And Glory gelding looks well-handicapped off 136 and the New Course test of Prestbury Park over 2m4f should suit well.

     

    3:00 Cheltenham – Moon D’Orange @ 12/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Finally, for the main selections, I’m taking a chance that Moon D’Orange could take a big step up on his first start in Graded company.

    The five-year-old has progressed nicely for John McConnell, who is finally finding some form, since his fourth in a 2m4f maiden hurdle at Leopardstown on December 28th, a race that was won by Henry de Bromhead’s Deep Cave with Lot Of Joy and Firm Footings filling the places.

    Fast-forward to this season and after an unseating at Galway, he ran a great race to finish second to the exciting Johnnywho at Carlisle in November with Whistle Stop Tour, an 18-length novice hurdle winner, back in third.

    Having stepped up in trip on his latest start, the Spanish Moon gelding rallied for pressure despite idling slightly on the run to the winning post; as such, connections have reached for the first-time cheekpieces today.

    In a race that isn’t a vintage renewal, McConnell could have another chance to land a pre-Festival Cheltenham winner, something he did with ease last season.

     

    Elsewhere

    Over at Hereford, Lime Avenue looks ready to win at 9/4 on his second start in handicap company (1:35). Better ground is key for him and Angus Cheleda claims a valuable five pounds in the saddle. 1pt Win.

    In the 2:25 at Cheltenham, Malina Girl at 6/1 could be a potential Grand National horse and although she has an extra 11 pounds to carry today, the five-pound claim of Conor Stone-Walsh will negate some of that. She was impressive last time out and the ground should be fine. 1pt EW.

    Finally, in the last, Nurse Susan at 13.2 holds plenty of appeal in a handicap off 125. She had a big break between her fourth at in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle in 2022 and her reappearance at Exeter last month, but a return to hurdles should suit and she will now be race fit. Dan Skelton rates her highly and could be useful off 125. 1pt Win

  • Tingle Creek Day | It’s Brave to take on Seasca

    Tingle Creek Day | It’s Brave to take on Seasca

    It’s been a tough time to be a Jumps fan recently with abandonments and poor weather sweeping the country, though help is on the way thanks to Tingle Creek Day on Saturday.

    Eight races from Sandown plus a good Aintree card makes this weekend one to enjoy, and that’s before we even think about the return of El Fabiolo in the Hilly Way on Sunday.

    As usual, a few horses are grabbing my attention ahead of the start of play, so let’s talk about them.

     

    1:30 Aintree – Brave Seasca @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    The fifth race at Aintree on Saturday could experience a case of Déjà vu as Brave Seasca is looking to win the contest for the second year in a row.

    The eight-year-old won last year’s renewal off a mark of 146 in a comfortable manner on ground that was probably as quick as he would have liked it.

    12 months on, Venetia Williams’ experienced chaser returns to the scene of the crime off a one-pound lower mark thanks to a nice display of leniency from the handicapper.

    Furthermore, he comes into Saturday’s task with the benefit of race fitness on his side after a run in the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter where he raced the widest of them all before fading due to a lack of fitness.

    With the yard in a fair level of form at the moment, Brave Seasca is a classy horse and looks well-handicapped on last season’s evidence.

     

    1:50 Sandown – JPR One @ 7/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    As mentioned on Wednesday’s Only Fools Love Horses video, JPR One was highlighted as one of my best bets for the weekend at an ante-post stage.

    Not much has changed since I said this as I still believe he is the most likely winner based on what he has shown over fences so far.

    The improving six-year-old won on heavy ground at Newton Abbot to start the season before his promising effort at Cheltenham when he infamously unshipped Brendan Powell after the last fence.

    Although a few people questioned why he was given 11 pounds by the handicapper, a penalty of somewhere in that region is understandable as he would have seemingly bolted up if not for his mistake.

    Furthermore, JPR One has good form from his time over hurdles and even finished a close second to Datsalrightgino, this season’s Coral Gold Cup winner, at Cheltenham in December 2021.

    Although conditions will likely suit Colonel Harry, soft ground should be no issue for JPR One and he deserves his big-race success.

     

    3:35 Sandown – Fontaine Collonges @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    This year’s renewal of the London National is a tight handicap as nine of the top 10 horses in the handicap are within seven pounds of each other.

    So, who looks like the best horse at the top of the handicap? In my eyes, with soft ground on the agenda, Fontaine Collonges is the one I’m keeping onside for an across-the-card Venetia Williams double.

    The eight-year-old progressed nicely last season with three victories on good to soft, soft, and heavy ground.

    The latest of these occurred in November 2022 on her first start of the season where she beat The Big Breakaway at Haydock; Joe Tizzard’s stable star went on to finish second in the Welsh Grand National to frank the form.

    Following an eye-catching fourth to Remastered at Kempton and two poor runs to finish the season, Williams has given her a wind-op over the summer ahead of her seasonal reappearance on Saturday.

    For a horse who clearly goes wells fresh, Ned Fox will take off a valuable five pounds in the saddle to add to her lenient handicap mark of 133, all of which suggests Fontaine Collonges has a great chance to pick up her fifth career success.

  • Coral Gold Cup Day 2 | It’s all Under Control

    Coral Gold Cup Day 2 | It’s all Under Control

    At the time of writing, action at Newbury is in doubt over an impending surge of cold weather ahead of the second day of the Coral Gold Cup Meeting.

    Despite this, there are a few horses I want to keep on my side on Saturday and if frozen ground does scupper any chances of racing, there’s no harm done from a betting perspective. 

    After yesterday’s profitable day, hopefully racing does go ahead tomorrow because if it does, here are my main fancies.

     

    11:55 Newbury – Manimole @ 2/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win 

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    Starting with the first race of the day at Newbury, course winner Manimole looks like a worthy favourite for the Nigel Twiston-Davies team. 

    The six-year-old by Sulamani put in a career-best effort at the track earlier this month to win by 15 lengths. 

    Although this was surprising, trainer Twiston-Davies described the performance as “unbelievable” and her as a “proper horse”. 

    Due to the victory, she carries a three-pound penalty against her rivals, though there isn’t much in the race that scares me apart from Mighty Moth who finished third to Jango Baie and Tellherthename at Ascot last-time-out. 

    Although that form looks useful on paper, she was 13 lengths behind the runaway pair and could be slightly flattered for it. 

    So, with this in mind, Manimole is my idea of the likely winner. 

     

    1:40 Newbury – Off To A Flyer @ 15/2 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW 

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    Admittedly, Jet Powered could be chucked in for the Coral Racing Club Handicap Hurdle, but there’s no getting away from Off To A Flyer in my eyes at 8/1. 

    The six-year-old is improving for Joe Tizzard and blew the cobwebs off at Cheltenham just over two weeks ago. 

    Before that, he finished last season with a nice win at Ayr over three miles and both the second, Aramax, and third, Quick Draw, have improved by 15 and eight pounds respectively. 

    Furthermore, the gelding by Shirocco ran well when collared late-on by The Carpenter at Exeter in February; the winner has since won two more races and is now rated 134. 

    With the hope that Tizzard has him 100% ready for a race worth £40,000, he looks well-handicapped and conditions should suit. 

     

    2:15 Newbury – Under Control @ 13/8 with William Hill – 3pt Win 

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    For people who have followed my posts on X in recent weeks, you’ll know that Under Control for the Gerry Feilden Handicap Hurdle has been a long-term hope of mine. 

    The form of her last race at Sandown is working out very well as the second, Iberico Lord, won the Greatwood Hurdle two weeks ago, the third, Arqoob, won at Sandown earlier this month and the fourth, General Medrano, has won twice over fences and improved his rating by 17 pounds. 

    As form goes, there isn’t much better than that and Nicky Henderson has had this race in mind for a long time. 

    Furthermore, the boss of Seven Barrows has a long and illustrious history with the Gerry Feilden having first won the race in 1999 with Bacchanal

    Since that success, Seven Barrows has produced eight further winners including Epatante in 2019 before her Champion Hurdle success two starts later. 

    Henderson has always thought plenty of Under Control and despite a racing weight of 11-13, a lot suggests she should win this race. 

     

    2:50 Newbury – Ga Law @ 25/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW 

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    Finally, with the abandonment of Newcastle’s card on Saturday, all roads lead to the Coral Gold Cup for Jamie Snowden’s Ga Law to take his chance at Newbury. 

    Although he failed to complete in the Grade 1 Alder Hey Aintree Bowl Chase at Aintree, last season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup winner is still unexposed at over extended distances having looked a likely winner before falling in the Sky Bet Handicap Chase in January. 

    His Aintree disappointment came less than a month after he finished a staying-on fifth in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival behind Envoi Allen, Shishkin, Hitman, and French Dynamite. 

    Prior to that, Snowden briefly mentioned about the Grand National for his improving seven-year-old, so connections seem to think he has a big engine over staying trips. 

    In what is a compact handicap, Ga Law is a classy horse and could continue to progress in a race like this especially with a run under his belt for race fitness. 

  • Coral Gold Cup Meeting Day 1 | Kid’s Time to shine

    Coral Gold Cup Meeting Day 1 | Kid’s Time to shine

    The Coral Gold Cup – or Hennessy for those vintage racing fans – is an event that I enjoy for many reasons. 

    Firstly, the feature contest is usually a competitive betting heat with plenty holding strong claims and secondly, the supporting card on both days is top class. 

    From Graded action to interesting maiden hurdles, novice events to intriguing handicaps, these two days at Newbury have a lot to offer. 

    With this in mind, three horses have caught my attention for Friday’s card at the Berkshire track, so let’s dive in. 

     

    12:40 Newbury – Persian Time @ 9/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win 

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    Nicky Henderson’s recent strike rate speaks for itself thanks to 11 winners from his last 34 runners, and with Constitution Hill set to give him a nervous few nights of sleep, hopefully, Persian Time can help settle any pre-Fighting Fifth jitters in the 12:40 at Newbury on Friday. 

    Owned by the McNeill and Stone Family, the five-year-old is making his debut over fences on Friday and is the choice of stable jockey Nico de Boinville over the more experienced Russian Ruler. 

    When we last saw Persian Time, he finished second to Paul Nicholls’ Hugos New Horse at Ayr when looking like the winner for the majority of the race. 

    Arguably, hitting the front at the third-last was a bit too soon as the winner passed him late on when A P Heskin’s mount started to fade. 

    Although he didn’t win, the Califet gelding showed great promise having pulled up in the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle one month prior. 

    This race, as well as two previous runs, were over two-and-a-half miles, though this drop back to two miles looks like a wise decision as this horse isn’t short of speed and a stiff test around Newbury should play to his strengths. 

    Therefore, if he takes to fences well – which can only be assumed if Henderson is running him in a novice handicap chase on his seasonal reappearance – he should be a big player. 

     

    2:25 Newbury – Kandoo Kid @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win 

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    In a recent Racing Post stable tour, Paul Nicholls said that he hadn’t “scratched the surface” yet with Kandoo Kid who makes his third start over fences in the 2m4f handicap chase. 

    The seven-year-old by Kapgarde has good course and distance form thanks to his second-place effort earlier this month to Galop De Chasse; the pair pulled 32 lengths clear of the third, Our Jet, who won at Kempton on Monday. 

    Looking back on last season, the gallant grey finished a good third to Persian Time at Ascot when giving five pounds away to the winner.

    Before that, he impressively beat Shallwehaveonemore, a horse who won at Sandown by 20 lengths on his next start before his second to Aucunrisque in the 2022 Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle, at Ascot in October 2021. 

    The ever-quickening Newbury ground will be fine having won on good to firm at Taunton on his hurdling debut and with a few of his rivals needing to prove they are well-handicapped to win, Kandoo Kid should be close at the finish. 

     

    3:35 Newbury – Hoe Joly Smoke @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win 

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    Last week, Beat The Bat and Welcome To Cartries put on a good duel at Ascot with the former coming out on top. 

    Prior to this success, Harry Fry’s exciting novice started his season with a second at Chepstow in October behind the impressive Masaccio and this weekend, the third from that contest, Hoe Joly Smoke, is looking to get a first win under rules. 

    Dan Skelton’s point-to-point winner has good form from his novice hurdling season thanks to his second to Makin’yourmindup, a Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle winner in February, at Chepstow in October 2022. 

    The five-year-old then finished second to Doyen Star, an unexposed Evan Williams-trained five-year-old, at the same course three months later.

    Also in that race was Crebilly who crossed the line in second; he has improved 11 pounds since that run and looked a likely winner at Cheltenham over fences earlier this month.

    Furthermore, his experience around Chepstow puts him in good shape for the challenge of Newbury and this step up to three miles is welcomed due to his big galloping nature. 

    As a result, Hoe Joly Smoke looks like a good each-way bet in the lucky last. 

  • Betfair Chase Day | Leave no Stone unturned

    Betfair Chase Day | Leave no Stone unturned

    Last weekend, the Cheltenham November Meeting dominated our screens but there’s no time to rest as the action comes thick and fast at this time of the season with the Betfair Chase taking centre stage. 

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    Alongside that, Punchestown hosts two Grade 1 races with the Morgiana and John Durkan as well as an interesting card at Ascot. 

    So, without delay, here are the main fancies for Saturday. 

     

    12:05 Haydock – Primoz @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win 

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    Starting with Haydock, the top three are dominating the market for the opening contest of the day, though it’s the outsider of the three, Primoz, that I’m siding with. 

    The Lucinda Russell-trained five-year-old made all at Ayr under Stephen Mulqueen, yet despite his apparent keenness, he quickened up nicely from the front to win by five lengths. 

    Visually, he looked impressive and on form, he beat I Love My Baie, an eight-and-a-half-length Perth maiden hurdle winner, Florida Dreams, the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper winner at Aintree, and Indeevar Blue, an exciting horse for Olly Murphy. 

    It’s a tough race and plenty can improve for their first run of the season, but Primoz has the scope to do the same and he is a well-regarded horse at home. 

     

    12:40 Haydock – Real Stone @ 5/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win 

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    The subsequent race at Haydock is an interesting two-mile handicap chase, and in a day where Dan Skelton could land Grade 1 success with Protektorat, the team have a good chance of starting well with Real Stone. 

    This improving eight-year-old is riddled with ability and has just 10-11 to lumber around a testing Haydock whereas his nearest market rival, Cheddleton, has 12-2 on his back. 

    Real Stone already has a chase victory under his belt having won at the third time of asking at Ffos Las, a race that has seen the second, Another Crick, improve six pounds and the third, Mongol Emperor, improve three pounds. 

    Although those numbers aren’t staggering, it shows he ran in a good race off a high racing weight of 11-12 on soft ground against two winners-in-waiting. 

    Speaking of good form, he went to Uttoxeter on his next start and ran into Blackjack Magic, this season’s Badger Beer Handicap Chase winner, over two-and-a-half miles and even had Make Me A Believer back in third, a horse who won nicely on seasonal reappearance earlier this month. 

    With race fitness on his side thanks to a credible fourth to Djelo and Master Chewy at Aintree in a contest that had omitted fences, he should go well for Dan and Harry Skelton. 

     

    2:05 Ascot – Theatre Glory @ 2/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win 

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    Moving over to Ascot, the Grade 2 Coral Hurdle looks like an open contest this year with Theatre Glory making her seasonal reappearance. 

    The six-year-old by Fame And Glory progressed nicely last season to score a Listed hurdle at Warwick by 11 lengths before her creditable sixth in the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. 

    Following that run, she finished a good third to Knappers Hill in the Grade 2 Select Hurdle at Sandown with Goshen, who reopposes today, in second. 

    Gary Moore’s loveable seven-year-old gave away nine pounds in weight that day and the same will occur today, though he tends to come on for his first run of the season whereas Theatre Glory can run well when fresh. 

    With the Nicky Henderson yard in red-hot form – 11 winners from his last 31 runners – now looks like a good time to catch this progressive mare on an important day for Seven Barrows. 

     

    2:40 Ascot – Lassue @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win 

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    Finally, rounding off this week’s Best Of Bets piece is a fancy from Ascot as Lassue looks a standout bet in the three-mile mares’ handicap hurdle. 

    Fergal O’Brien’s seven-year-old returned to the track after a 629-day break to score at Chepstow last month under Jack Hogan, beating Fortuna Ligna who reopposes today. 

    That was a tidy run off such a long break on her first start at three miles, so she is a proven stayer over this trip. 

    Furthermore, her first outing of the season was her handicap debut off a mark of 110 and with just four extra pounds today, it’s reasonable to say she could still be well-handicapped. 

    With ground on her side, Lassue is an obvious play and with Fergal O’Brien hoping for success at Haydock in the big handicap of the day, Ravenswell Frarm could be on for a memorable across-the-card double. 

  • Cheltenham November Meeting | Same Place, same race

    Cheltenham November Meeting | Same Place, same race

    It’s day two of the Cheltenham November Meeting meaning that the Paddy Power Gold Cup is the feature event of the seven-race card.

    As some of you know, my heart lies with one horse in that race – more of that to come – but elsewhere, Saturday at Cheltenham looks tasty with plenty of interesting betting angles.

    Hopefully, these angles prove to be fruitful by the time the bumper finishes, so let’s dive in.

     

    12:35 Cheltenham – Milan Tino @ 6/4 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    In a race that looks winnable, Milan Tino holds an obvious chance in the Grade 2 Triumph Hurdle Trial that opens day two at the Cheltenham November Meeting.

    Trained by Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm in France, the three-year-old by Milan made his first start in the famous JP McManus silks 35 days ago when third in the Grade 2 Prix Georges de Talhouet-Roy at Auteuil.

    The winner, Jigme, scored in the Grade 1 Prix Cambaceres on his next start with the second, Leon Du Berlais, and fourth, Kingland, filling the places behind Jigme in the Prix Cambaceres.

    Although the lack of other French juvenile talent could be the reason for this, all three filling the places in their subsequent engagement suggests the form of Milan Tino’s last run is good.

    Furthermore, the twice-raced gelding has form on very soft ground, and with rain set to hit Prestbury Park on Saturday morning, one can imagine he’ll prefer the softer surface whereas Burdett Road has something to prove in that department.

    It’s not original, but Milan Tino looks like a classy horse and could be too good.

     

    1:10 Cheltenham – Undersupervision @ 22/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Cheltenham course form is key in many handicaps at Prestbury Park, and in a competitive-looking Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase, Undersupervision is one I want to chance.

    The Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained seven-year-old has raced at Cheltenham seven times during his three-year career without success.

    However, he ran through the rails when second to Does He Know on his chase debut, finished third to Corach Rambler and Eva’s Oskar in 2021, and finished third to Eva’s Oskar again in 2022.

    Furthermore, the gelding by Doyen ran a credible race when fourth to Le Milos, a subsequent Coral Gold Cup winner, at Sandown in February.

    All of this form looks promising for a horse rated 132 with Mr Toby McCain-Mitchell claiming seven pounds in the saddle.

    Admittedly, he has a small bit to prove, but he likes the course and soft ground shouldn’t trouble him too much, so with the chance he is well-handicapped, 22/1 is worth taking for Undersupervision.

     

    1:45 Cheltenham – Broadway Boy @ 5/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    There’s something about the Listed From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices’ Chase that is really intriguing at 1:45 as solid cases could be made for five of the six runners.

    Admittedly, I thought Good Risk At All would go to the Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase at 1:45 on Sunday, which he was entered for when I first looked at this race, so to see him here adds another element of interest.

    However, at the time of studying this race, Broadway Boy piqued my interest the most and I don’t want to desert him in the 11th hour.

    The improving five-year-old by Malinas ran a stormer over course and distance last time out when second to Flooring Porter while giving the winner five pounds in weight.

    Although the two-time Stayers Hurdle winner could have won by more than his two-and-a-half-length success suggests, Broadway Boy served it up to him for a while and did himself proud.

    On the run prior to his Cheltenham second, he beat Mofasa by a comfortable nine lengths, form that has worked out well as Mofasa won a handicap chase off 130 next time out.

    He went into his last run on an official mark of 137 and he is unchanged for the effort, which makes the decision to run him in a conditions race rather than a handicap interesting.

    His task this weekend will be tough, but I’m hoping Broadway Boy is up to the challenge at a course he likes.

     

    2:20 Cheltenham – The Real Whacker @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup is one of the best renewals in recent memory, bringing Grade 1 form and improving handicappers together at the cathedral of jumps racing.

    Plenty holds interesting profiles, but it’s The Real Whacker that has the tough task of carrying my money as well as top weight on his back.

    Starting with his racing weight and rating, it won’t be an easy task to pull off, yet the seven-pound difference between him and Stage Star is there for a reason because he is probably a seven-pound better horse.

    Looking at the form of his Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase victory, he beat Gerri Colombe, a subsequent two-time Grade 1 winner and leading hope for the Gold Cup, I Am Maximus, an Irish Grand National winner on his next start, Galia Des Liteaux, a Listed chase winner on Thursday, and Thunder Rock, a recent Listed Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase winner.

    That is solid form, no question, and it needs to be if he is to justify winning a Paddy Power Gold Cup off 162.

    Patrick Neville’s seven-year-old has both good and soft ground form, course form, and has seemingly improved a tonne over the summer.

    Of course, the first-time-out angle is a worry, but if he gets into a nice jumping rhythm, it will take a good horse to peg him back and at 7/1, he seems like a solid each-way bet.

     

    2:55 Cheltenham – Placenet @ 4/1 with BoyleSports – 2pt Win

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    Any listeners of the very popular Racing Post show Upping The Ante will know David Jennings put Placenet up on Tuesday and, after a look myself, I tend to agree with him.

    The David Pipe-trained French recruit comes into Saturday’s Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle off a 71-day break having finished fourth in a Listed chase at Compiegne in September.

    The form of that race reads very well as the third, Spes Militurf, beat Gold Tweet in the Grade 2 Prix Paradis Beachcomber Golf Resort & Spa two starts later and the winner, Clondaw Castle, was a good Grade 2 chaser for Tom George before moving to Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm.

    That race alone was full of horses who wouldn’t look out of place with a British rating of 140, so with an opening handicap mark of 124 over hurdles, that looks lenient.

    Having won this race in 2014 with Katkeau, a French recruit running off a mark of 124, hopefully Placenet can add to that trend.

  • Cheltenham November Meeting | Teague in a Breeze

    Cheltenham November Meeting | Teague in a Breeze

    It’s always a good weekend when Prestbury Park is alive with action, especially when the headline event is the Cheltenham November Meeting.

    With the Paddy Power Gold Cup as the star act on Saturday, Friday is a nice introduction for a good weekend and I have three fancies for the action on ITV and Racing TV.

     

    1:45 Cheltenham – Ballybreeze @ 5/1 General – 2pt EW

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    The Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (great name) looks like a fascinating race over two miles with Calico, the 4/1 favourite, bringing form with Jonbon to the table while Triple Trade is progressing at a good rate of knots for Joe Tizzard.

    Away from these two, Ballybreeze is a horse I’ve wanted to see for a while and he finally gets his opportunity in the shadows of Cleeve Hill.

    The seven-year-old by Schiaparelli raced just three times last season and kicked off his campaign with a facile success at Chepstow after a 218-day break.

    Following a 139-day break, connections sent Ballybreeze to the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival at 150/1.

    Although he was last home, Samual Drinkwater’s £8,000 purchase travelled at Grade 1 pace for a while – unlike Hollow Games – before fading.

    Following his Grade 1 test, Ballybreeze went to Market Rasen and looked like the winner before over-jumping the third last and falling.

    With a good summer on his back, he looks very well-handicapped off 120 and with his ability to perform well fresh, he looks like a standout bet at 11/2.

     

    3:30 Cheltenham – Captain Teague @ 4/6 General – 4pt Win

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    This isn’t a revolutionary or unique pick, but due to the lack of betting angles in the other races, Captain Teague makes the list as a good bet on Friday.

    The five-year-old by Doyen has a lot to like coming into the Grade 2 Trustatrader Novices’ Hurdle, notably the fact he won the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle on his debut over obstacles.

    Although he looked to guess at a few hurdles, his jumping improved throughout the contest and that run was his first piece of schooling on grass due to the quick ground back in Ditcheat.

    Therefore, he will hopefully show a better level of consistency at Cheltenham and, in turn, an even higher standard of performance.

    Furthermore, the form of his third in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper continues to get better as the fourth, fifth, ninth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, and fourteenth have all won impressively since.

    If you are looking to take a risk for some potential value, I think Kinbara is a nice horse for John McConnell and the 4/1 straight forecast could be an interesting play, but as for the sole selection, hopefully Captain Teague can show his class.

     

    4:05 Cheltenham – Impose Toi @ 3/1 @ William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Nicky Henderson could be on for a good weekend with his JP McManus-owned horses if both Jonbon in the Shloer Chase and Iberico Lord in the Greatwood Hurdle oblige willingly.

    However, looking at the more immediate future, the trainer-owner partnership has a good chance to kick the weekend off well with Impose Toi in the finale on Friday.

    The five-year-old gelding is making his handicap debut having bolted up in a novice hurdle over 2m5f at Ludlow in May while carrying a penalty.

    That win came after an average run at Huntingdon behind Brentford Hope, though the form has worked out as Brentford Hope skated in at Newbury by 15 lengths on his seasonal reappearance last week.

    Although Impose Toi has 11-12 to carry around Prestbury Park, he is unexposed and has good form on soft ground due to his two victories in France for Daniela Mele.

    This could be a tough task on his handicap debut, but I think he could be too classy and I’m willing to take that chance at 3/1.

  • Badger Beer Chase | Fantastic day for Sam – The Top Three

    Badger Beer Chase | Fantastic day for Sam – The Top Three

    Today is a monster day for racing with the Badger Beer Chase highlighting Wincanton in the UK and the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase drawing attention at Down Royal in Northern Ireland.

    The standard for this weekly series is for three selections from three races, however, there is a change today.

    Two horses are top of my list for the Badger Beer Chase, and I don’t want to leave either out, so I’ll split the stakes and include them both.

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    12:40 Wincanton – Meatloaf @ 1/1 with BetVictor – 3pt Win

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    Since 2013, Paul Nicholls has won seven renewals of the EBF Stallions “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle and Meatloaf could provide number eight for the Ditcheat-based yard.

    The four-year-old by Doctor Dino was highly tried in bumpers last season, winning two and finishing second in one.

    Looking at his two bumper victories, the first occurred at Wincanton with an impressive two-and-three-quarter length success, a race that saw both the second and fourth win their respective maiden hurdles this season.

    The second success was on his final start of last season back at the same track when he beat Classic King by one-and-a-half lengths, a horse who bolted up by 10 lengths in a Wincanton maiden hurdle last month.

    Today’s soft ground should suit well and having finished ahead of Dancing In Brazil, one of today’s rivals, at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, today looks like a perfect start to his hurdling career..

     

    2:25 Wincanton – Ballygrifincottage @ 18/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW

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    Coming into the Badger Beer, only two horses have had a run this season and those happen to be Courtland and Ballygrifincottage.

    With the former being a horse with an unappealing profile for a test like this, I’m happy to leave him and side with the latter instead.

    Dan Skelton’s eight-year-old has experienced just three spins over fences under rules so far in his career, one of which was a facile 11-length success on soft ground at Haydock in a good time.

    Because of this impressive debut, he went off a well-backed 4/5 on his second start over fences in the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby, a race won by the now 142-rated City Chief.

    Despite his price, he disappointed and pulled up after the 15th, though a post-race vet examination revealed he had bled from the nose.

    Another pulled-up effort over hurdles finished his season on a downer, a stark difference from one year prior having concluded his 2021-22 campaign with a good fourth in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.

    Skelton has made it no secret this season that plenty of his horses will come on for their opening run of the campaign, something that should occur for Ballygrifincottage after his acceptable reappearance at Newton Abbot in October.

    Off a mark of just 140, he should be well-handicapped based on how highly regarded he is within Lodge Hill and with the cheekpieces applied on his second start after a wind-op, all things seem to suggest that today has been a long-term plan.

     

    2:25 Wincanton – Sam Brown @ 8/1 General – 1pt Win

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    Although Ballygrifincottage is an interesting big-priced contender, there is no getting away from the attractive nature of Sam Brown in a race like this off a workable mark of 152.

    As we saw with Frodon last year, high-rated horses can win staying handicap chases like this and it looks as if Anthony Honeyball’s 11-year-old could be well-handicapped on old form.

    13 months ago, the gelding by Black Sam Bellamy finished a brilliant third in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase to Bravemansgame, a subsequent Gold Cup runner-up, on his first run of the season.

    Following that run, connections fancied him to win the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase on his next start (according to Honeyball when I spoke to him at the Punchestown Festival) but he disappointed in a time where the yard was slightly out of form.

    Fast-forward to the Punchestown Festival in April, he had a starting price of 9/1 for the Palmerstown House Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase and looked like the winner before his fall at the second-last fence.

    Up just two pounds for that effort, he could be dangerous off 152 if he is fully up for the task on his seasonal debut and at 8/1, I’m willing to take the chance that he is as a win-only proposition.

     

    2:45 Aintree – Fantastic Lady @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Listeners of the Only Fools Love Horses Twitter Space on Sunday or YouTube video on Wednesday will know that Fantastic Lady is a horse I’ve had pencilled in for the Grand Sefton for a few weeks.

    The eight-year-old mare has shown a good level of improvement since her first victory over fences at Warwick in January 2022 over two-and-a-half miles.

    This steady rise through the handicap saw her pitched into the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase two starts later when third behind Pic D’Orhy – now rated 162 – and the subsequent Grade 1-winning Millers Bank.

    Last season continued on the same trajectory as she bolted up over three miles to beat Zambella before a good second over the Grand National fences in the Topham in April and a promising third behind Hewick in the Grade 2 Oaksey Chase.

    Although she received weight on her last start, getting to within eight lengths of Hewick, a horse who ran very well in the Gold Cup before falling, is good form and even the second, First Flow, franked the form thanks to his second in the Byre Group Handicap Chase last week.

    This year’s Grand Sefton has apparently been the plan for a while and with trainer Nicky Henderson thinking of Grand National glory later down the line, a win today would start off Fantastic Lady’s season in a good way.