Best Of Bets

Author: Ashley Symonds

  • Imperial Cup Day | Jonjo Has the Thing at Sandown

    Imperial Cup Day | Jonjo Has the Thing at Sandown

    It’s the final weekend before the Cheltenham Festival which means the Imperial Cup headlines action on our screens today.

    Alongside the £100,000 feature, there is the valuable EBF Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final and other interesting contests to try and find an angle into.

    After last week’s success with the column, let’s begin.

     

    1:50 Sandown – Hasthing @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    As much as I try to find ways around favourites in general, there’s a good chance that a mark of 119 makes Hasthing very well-handicapped.

    For starters, he gave Pic Roc six pounds at Catterick two starts ago and beat him snugly at the line.

    Both are clashing against each other on handicap debut today, though it’s Jamie Snowden’s novice that is carrying four pounds extra.

    Hasthing also has Graded form in the book thanks to his third in the Grade 2 Aintree Bumper at the Grand National meeting.

    The winner, Florida Dreams, is rated 129, the second, Blizzard Of Oz, has won twice since, and even the fifth, Masaccio, is rated 129.

    If he can put his last run behind him then Jonjo O’Neill Jnr has a serious chance of swooping up the £45,016 winning pot for connections.

     

    2:25 Sandown – Lively Citizen @ 28/1 with William Hill – 0.5 EW

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    Plenty could go well in the Imperial Cup at Sandown, that’s for sure, but my each-way play into the contest is Lively Citizen who finished second in the 2022 renewal.

    He raced off 121 that day and ran into Surprise Package who went on to finish second in State Man’s County Hurdle.

    This year, DJ Jeffries’ stable star has a mark of 113 with Harry Atkins in the saddle to claim a valuable seven pounds.

    Although he has been inconsistent since that Imperial Cup second, his last two runs have provided plenty of promise and he gets his preferred soft ground today.

    Lively Citizen is a horse I love, so hopefully he can outrun his odds in a hot handicap.

     

    4:10 Sandown – Castle Robin @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Charlie Longsdon has always rated Castle Robin in high regard and today looks like a good chance to return to the winners’ enclosure.

    Rated 132, two pounds below his last winning mark, the nine-year-old is one-from-one at Sandown.

    The form of his fourth in the 2022 Edinburgh Gin Chase looks good as Sounds Russian went on to run well in the 2023 Cotswold Chase and Eva’s Oskar won at Cheltenham two starts later.

    Furthermore, his first start of the season at Doncaster was promising as the winner, Forward Plan, has since won the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase and the third, Twoshotsoftequila, has won twice since.

    With a run under his belt last month to blow the cobwebs away, he should go well here.

     

    4:40 Sandown – Es Perfecto @ 7/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Finally, in the last at Sandown, I’m throwing another lifeline to Es Perfecto who is slowly becoming a cliff horse of mine.

    Having backed him at Kempton and Cheltenham on his last two starts, he ran with credit on both occasions behind some nice horses including Blow You Wad, a subsequent Grade 2 winner, and Ginny’s Destiny, the current Turners favourite.

    Looking through the form book, the nine-year-old has run some nice races on better ground and is a little bit untested on softer conditions.

    Although the official going at Sandown is good to soft, the track tends to ride a little bit slower, but his pedigree (a Shirocco half-brother to No Ordinary Joe) should offer hope to him going well in most ground.

    Off 123, I think he is better than this mark and hopefully, he can be too good for these.

  • Morebattle Hurdle Day | Control Personal Ambition

    Morebattle Hurdle Day | Control Personal Ambition

    Lump Sum and Bowtogreatness made last weekend a good one at Kempton ahead of this week’s Morebattle Hurdle Day at Kelso.

    Action also comes from Newbury as well on Saturday, giving a nice undercard to the main event of the Cheltenham festival in just over a week.

    Let’s dive in.

     

    1:55 Newbury – Heltenham @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Heltenham was slightly unlucky not to get his head in front at Kempton last weekend, so you can see why the Dan Skelton yard wants to send him out while he is in good form.

    The seven-year-old has plenty of ability, which is apparent based on his demolition job over course and distance in March 2023, and soft ground is something he loves.

    By Masked Marvel, he was surprisingly weak in the betting seven days ago and looked slightly awkward for much of the contest, but he ran well without winning.

    There’s also an argument to suggest that race was a strong piece of form as Golden Son has shown talent – notably when second to Iroko on UK chase debut – and Champagne Mystery is a Grade 3-placed chaser in France.

    Back to a winning course and back left-handed should see him go well today for an operation in average form.

     

    2:17 Kelso – Personal Ambition @ 3/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    A few people may know from my X profile that I have a small love for Personal Ambition, so it would be remiss of me not to fancy him to win the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle.

    Bar his disappointing effort at Sandown two starts ago, the five-year-old has impressed both me, trainer Ben Pauling, and jockey Kielan Woods, notably when dotting up at Doncaster on his latest start.

    He showed a serious turn of foot to pick up after the last in what was, admittedly, a weak contest.

    Jango Baie is no easy task at the head of affairs, but Personal Ambition doesn’t have a Grade 1 penalty to shoulder, so I’d chance him to get the better of Henderson’s contender here.

     

    2:25 Newbury – Toonagh Warrior @ 4/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Looking at the third race at Newbury, a two-mile novices’ handicap hurdle, Toonagh Warrior is a horse who looks well-handicapped based on this season’s form.

    Starting with the Newbury ground, we are expecting heavy conditions, something that should suit Stuart Edmunds’ six-year-old on pedigree.

    By Well Chosen, the same sire as Willie Mullins’ soft ground-winning Carefully Selected and Gordon Elliott’s heavy ground-winning Jury Duty, his damsire, Kris Kin, produced plenty of horses who liked soft ground, so we have no issues here.

    Furthermore, he won a novice hurdle on soft ground comfortably which would provide plenty of promise.

    As for his form, his penultimate run at Ascot is interesting as he gave five pounds away to the then 104-rated Titan Discovery when just beaten by a head; the winner is now rated 121 and won off 115 in a Sandown handicap last month.

    Also, Ben Pauling’s Bad was in third, who has since finished a close second in a valuable Ascot handicap, and King William Rufus was 13 lengths behind in fifth who has some form with Jeriko Du Reponet.

    If you ignore his last run, which was his first test over two-and-a-half miles, he should have a great chance at bouncing back now over two miles.

     

    2:50 Kelso – Under Control @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Nicky Henderson is lining up the Kelso to Cheltenham bonus with Under Control, and it seems he has a good horse to try it with in this year’s Morebattle.

    Henderson made no secret that the Gerry Feilden was the big early-season target for this five-year-old, a race he has previously used for top mares like Epatante, Floressa, and Theatre Glory.

    Like Theatre Glory, it didn’t work for him this year, but a wind issue was discovered afterwards and that seemed to do the trick as she ran a corked behind Ashroe Diamond at Doncaster last time out.

    The third, Gala Marceau, is a good mare based on her Lossiemouth form from last season despite failing to land a blow in her subsequent race in the Grade 3 Quevega Mares Hurdle.

    However, the fifth, Stainsby Girl, won comfortably at Haydock on her next start, so the substance of form to that Doncaster race is strong.

    As Kelso has missed most of the rain this week, the ground will be up her street and a mark of 138 looks lenient based on her form with Iberico Lord and the aforementioned mares.

     

    4:05 Newbury – Charles Ritz @ 11/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    With the number of runners and the shape of the race, Charles Ritz could either take a massive step forward at Newbury on Saturday or hate this new step up in trip.

    The eight-year-old by Milan should suit three miles well as his dam, Miss Ballantyne, won on her final career start over three miles, and he has raced as if the step up in distance would benefit him.

    Trained by Tom George, his career so far hasn’t been easy as it took him 371 days to race in a novice hurdle after his second in a Wadebridge point-to-point and then he had another year off after his second novice hurdle start.

    Speaking of that novice hurdle, he finished fifth at Ascot over 2m5f while giving weight away to the likes of Complete Unknown and Galia Des Liteaux, and he finished half-a-length behind Monbeg Genuis.

    As a chaser, he was a snug winner at Exeter off 118 and George even tried to send him into a hot novices’ handicap chase at Prestbury Park that he didn’t really enjoy.

    Back at a different track, he should go well.

  • Coral Trophy Handicap Chase Day | Greatness awaits for Pauling

    Coral Trophy Handicap Chase Day | Greatness awaits for Pauling

    The run-in towards the Cheltenham Festival continues to shorten and shorten as the days pass, and one marker on the road to Prestbury Park is Coral Trophy Handicap Chase Day at Kempton.

    Once known as the Racing Post Trophy, the £150,000 contest highlights a good day of action from the Middlesex-based track which also includes the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase, and Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle.

    With a few bets in mind, let’s get started.

     

    1:15 Kempton – Joker De Mai @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Harry Derham could take it to the ‘Max’ on Saturday at Kempton thanks to a number of interesting runners, though the one I’m siding with is Joker De Mai in the opener for owner-jockey David Maxwell.

    Backing a Maxwell-ridden horse does require some bravery, but that is usually taken into the price and this progressive five-year-old can continue his rise through the ranks.

    Formerly in France, the Balko gelding has plenty of experience on his side and he even won two chase contests before his move over to the UK. My French form knowledge isn’t amazing, but the horse he beat on his final start – Jardin D’Arthel – beat Excello (now rated 144 and with Nicky Henderson) on his next start before a fair fifth in the Grade 1 Prix Ferdinand Dufaure.

    As for Joker De Mai, he beat Awaythelad, a horse who has won twice since, on his second start in the UK and both the fourth, I’d Like To Know, and the fifth, Naturally High, have gone some way to frank the form.

    Although he failed to win last time out, that race came just 10 days after his Lingfield win and that potentially showed with the way he finished his race.

    With a 65-day break on his side, I’m hoping for a much better outing off a mark of 128.

     

    1:58 Chepstow – Zambezi Fix @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Zambezi Fix has been a joy to watch this season for Bernard Llewellyn; this isn’t pocket talk, though his success at Chepstow two starts ago has contributed to this opinion slightly.

    Connections have mixed between hurdles and fences with their nine-year-old and off a hurdles mark of 120, he returns to the smaller obstacles this weekend.

    Over fences, he has tended to jump cautiously – something which potentially lost him the race last time out – but he is a fairly solid jumper over hurdles.

    His form over sticks is pretty good as he was third to JPR One at Taunton in March 2023, though it’s his form around Chepstow that shines the brightest.

    From 12 runs at the track, he has placed four times behind the likes of Funambule Sivola and Le Cameleon, and he has won twice.

    Soft ground is no problem to him and in what is a winnable contest, he should go close this weekend.

     

    3:00 Sandown – Lump Sum @ 6/4 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Visually, Lump Sum is a horse that has pleased me so far this season and Saturday could see him collect his first piece of graded silverware.

    In his formbook, the first race people will look at is his effort behind Jeriko Du Reponet at Doncaster in the Grade 2 Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle.

    I’ll be the first to admit that my liking for Jeriko Du Reponet isn’t a strong one, but he made up plenty of ground on a potential Grade 1 horse from the rear which can’t be ignored.

    Prior to that, he beat Onethreefivenotout, a subsequent maiden hurdle winner, at Wincanton on heavy ground while giving seven pounds away.

    Looking even further back, he tried to give The Doyen Chief, two-time novice hurdle winner, seven pounds in a Hereford bumper and ran with credit.

    If he continues his progress on Saturday, he should be the one to beat and his price of 6/4 is fair.

     

    3:37 Kempton – Bowtogreatness @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    All season, I have waited eagerly to see Bowtogreatness in a three-mile handicap chase with race fitness on his side, and finally, the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase is where we get to see this happen.

    Having suffered a setback in the first few months of the season, his opening run of the campaign blew the cobwebs off and his second run was over a trip shorter than ideal.

    Thanks to these two performances, the handicapper has dropped the eight-year-old by two pounds in the handicap to a mark of 133, just one pound above the mark he was on when second in the valuable William Hill Handicap Chase at Aintree.

    Ben Pauling has always rated this horse in high regard, and three miles around the flat nature of Kempton should suit as he doesn’t lack speed.

    Interestingly, although he has won on heavy and soft over hurdles, Pauling has pulled him out of races due to soft ground in the past.

    This is a small worry as the track is officially soft, but Kempton is unlikely to receive any more rain before racing. Furthermore, the Westerner blood on his sire’s side, and the family on his dam’s side, suggests soft ground should cause no issues.

  • Grand National Trial Day | Soaring to Glory at Ascot

    Grand National Trial Day | Soaring to Glory at Ascot

    Last week marked a good day for the Bestofbets.com column ahead of Grand National Trial Day this weekend.

    Emitom obliged at 9/2 and Our Champ grabbed a place with William Hill at 33/1, though the day could have been better if Hometown Boy continued his good progress in the penultimate contest at Newbury.

    Both Ascot and Haydock look interesting on Saturday, so let’s dig in.

     

    1:37 Haydock – Zhiguli @ 7/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Six runners, heavy ground, and a lack of pace look like ideal conditions for Zhiguli to return to the winners’ enclosure at Haydock.

    Trained by Gary Moore, who is running at a 24% strike rate, the nine-year-old is down to a mark of 124 which is two pounds below his last winner mark (March 2023).

    The man of the moment, Caolin Quinn, is also in the saddle to steal a further three pounds, so there’s no excuse for his handicap mark today.

    On paper, it looks as if he and Top Ville Ben are the only horses who like to run from the front, though the latter has failed to win on his last 12 attempts and his age of 12 would carry a small weight of negativity.

    With the first-time cheekpieces applied to keep him focused after his slightly sluggish start in a match race against Quel Destin in early December, the heavy ground should offer no problems considering he won on Lingfield heavy in January 2022 and he is one of my stronger fancies of the day.

     

    1:50 Ascot – Kilbeg King @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’ve always had a soft spot for Anthony Honeyball’s Kilbeg King, and today he tries his hand in a winnable Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase.

    Based on novice hurdle form, Apple Away is the one with the best form, but Kilbeg King travelled eye-catchingly well in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase on Boxing Day before seeing out his run well.

    Il Est Francais set a strong pace alongside Hermes Allen, so Sam Twiston-Davies was able to sit in behind and make his move around the home turn at Kempton.

    Unfortunately, he ran into two very smart ones that day, but there’s a potential that both Brave Kingdom and Apple Away could do something similar to Il Est Francais and Hermes Allen as both like to run from the front.

    If that is the case, the race could set up nicely for this improving nine-year-old and the fact he is racing here and not in the Swinley Handicap Chase (that he received an entry for) or next week’s Coral Trophy Handicap Chase is interesting.

     

    2:05 Wincanton – Colonel Mustard @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    The swing in weights between Rubaud and Colonel Mustard from their last meeting at Ayr is 17lbs, a key piece of information that makes me want to side with Colonel Mustard in the Kingwell Hurdle.

    The nine-year-old’s stint over fences wasn’t a fruitful one, so today’s return to hurdles is appreciated and the horse has had sufficient time – 78 days – between runs to hopefully allow a nice reintroduction to the smaller obstacles.

    Trainer Mrs Lorna Fowler told the Racing Post that they have had the Kingwell Hurdle “earmarked since before Christmas” and that the Champion Hurdle is next on the radar if all goes well today.

    If you ignore his last two runs, both of which were over a trip that is probably too far for him, his form when third to State Man in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Champion Hurdle at Punchestown, second in the 2023 Morebattle Hurdle (while giving weight away to recent Betfair Hurdle runner-up L’Eau Du Sud), and third to State Man in the 2022 County Hurdle is the best in this race.

    He handles soft conditions – he even skipped last year’s Betfair Hurdle due to quick ground – and today could see him put in a nice round at Wincanton.

     

    2:25 Ascot – Soaring Glory @ 18/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    In what is an open-looking £50,000 handicap hurdle at Ascot, I’m taking a chance on Soaring Glory at the prices.

    He is on an 11-race losing streak but as such has dropped 17 pounds in the handicap to a workable mark of 132.

    With a course form record of 1231, one of which was a success in the 2021 Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle, the test of Ascot suits and better ground is also on the preferred list.

    A rekindling of form is required, but he is still relatively unexposed at the two-and-a-half-mile trip having finished third at Aintree in May behind Boombawn, who had form with Teddy Blue and Knappers Hill as a novice hurdler, and Hang In There, who has improved 13lbs over fences since the run.

    Today could be the day to catch Soaring Glory, especially due to the form of the Jonjo O’Neill yard (32% strike rate).

     

    3:15 Haydock – Full Back @ 18/1 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

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    On his first run back for 434 days, Full Back put in a pleasing performance during the Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield before his fall at the fifth-last.

    Priced at 100/1, he was unlikely to win especially because of the long lay-off, but he jumped consistently well until the fall – the tumble itself was not due to technique, he just got in too tight and failed to put out the proper landing gear.

    The nine-year-old returns to handicap company today for the Grand National Trial off a mark that is two pounds below his last winning effort in a fair race on soft ground at Cheltenham over 3m2f – this race is his only handicap chase contest to date on soft ground.

    Although the horse has been a non-runner on soft ground before, his Authorized half-sister, the Willie Mullins-trained Implicit, won her maiden hurdle on heavy ground and the dam, Quatre Bleue, won once on very soft as well as once on soft during her racing career.

    He also has form as a novice chaser on soft ground – notably his success in January 2021 in deplorable conditions at Exeter – so there’s no reason to suggest he will hate this ground.

    If he handles the conditions, his handicap mark will allow him to go well today.

  • Betfair Hurdle Weekend | Big-priced Champ in the feature

    Betfair Hurdle Weekend | Big-priced Champ in the feature

    Betfair Hurdle weekend always provides a good level of clues for the Cheltenham Festival as it’s one of the final stops before jump racing’s Olympics.

    Although rain has decimated racing at both Warwick and Uttoxeter, Newbury and Naas are fit to continue and, as such, I have a few fancies to consider.

     

    1:30 Newbury – Emitom @ 9/2 with William Hill Win

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    Despite his age of 10 and the fact he was once rated 155, no one can fault the form that Emitom is in.

    Since joining Alan King’s yard from Warren Greatrex, the Grade 1-placed gelding has improved 10 pounds from one victory and two seconds.

    His success on stable debut at Newbury in March 2023 saw him beat Hyland, a horse who has improved 13 pounds since, and his second to Saint Davy last time out has received a form boost as the winner won the valuable Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown last weekend.

    Up just two pounds for that effort at Ludlow in January, he has a great Newbury record (two wins and one second) and should relish soft conditions.

     

    3:15 Newbury – Our Champ @ 33/1 with William Hill EW

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    At the start of the week, I highlighted Our Champ as an interesting outsider for the Betfair Hurdle, and my opinion of him has failed to change.

    The six-year-old has improved markedly since joining Chris Gordon from Paul Henderson, notably due to his two successes towards the start of the season.

    The final one of the pair occurred at Cheltenham when he danced in under Freddie Gordon – who was claiming three pounds due to the conditions of the race – off a mark of 117.

    Three slightly underwhelming runs since has the Champs Elysees gelding back on a mark of 124, though Freddie Gordon is able to claim five pounds today.

    A return to that Cheltenham form is required, but connections have hopefully sorted out a small wind issue as today is his first run after a wind-op and he is also racing with a tongue tie.

    If he handles the ground, which is a slight unknown, then he can certainly outrun his odds.

     

    3:15 Newbury – Altobelli @ 7/1 with William Hill EW

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    However, although Our Champ deserves a big shout for the Betfair Hurdle, this week’s large quantity of rain means Altobelli is also one to keep onside.

    Unfortunately for Harry Fry and connections, the ground turned to be a bit too quick at Ascot on his last start, yet he ran a belter to finish second to Luccia and Impose Toi, two top-class Nicky Henderson horses.

    The Betfair Exchange Trophy was certainly his season-long plan, so his promising second on seasonal debut was a pleasant surprise.

    Furthermore, ignoring his disappointing effort in a Grade 1 at Aintree, the Maxios gelding is still unexposed and he even beat Ginny’s Destiny in an Exeter bumper which is good form.

    Seven places with William Hill is generous, so a double-pronged attack of him and Our Champ is my angle into the Betfair Hurdle.

     

    3:40 Naas – Riviere D’Etel @ 7/2 with BetVictor Win

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    Anyone who knows a little bit about my cliff horses will appreciate the love I have for Riviere D’etel, so I’m excited to see her back out today.

    She caused a slight surprise – based on the market – to bolt up at Fairyhouse on her last start, though her form with Captain Guinness from the last two renewals of the Fortria Chase puts her in the mix for any high-level mares’ chase.

    Furthermore, although a return to a left-handed track isn’t ideal, she ran well in last year’s Grade 2 Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival before falling and she has good form at Leopardstown from her novice chasing season.

    Her jumping to the right is accounted into the price, but her form over two miles puts her right there and both Allegorie De Vassy and Maskada need to answer some questions.

     

    3:50 Newbury – Hometown Boy @ 8/1 with William Hill EW

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    Although his career has had its bumps in the road, there’s a chance that Hometown Boy could make use of his current rating of 135.

    The nine-year-old had 929 days off the track between his Aintree success off 137 over hurdles in April 2021 and his chase debut at Carlisle in October 2023.

    His 22-length defeat may look bad on paper, but he was travelling well at the front of the field before he overreached at the fourth-last.

    Stuart Edmunds and the team have given him plenty of time after his seasonal reappearance which should negate any ‘bounce factor’, and his novice hurdle form when second to McFabulous could make him well-treated off his current mark.

    The ground should be no issue – his half-brother, Walkinthewoods, produced his best form on soft ground – and he even comes from the same family as Simon, John Spearing’s 2007 Racing Post Trophy winner who achieved a peak rating of 152.

  • Dublin Racing Festival Tips | Warrior or Dancer

    Dublin Racing Festival Tips | Warrior or Dancer

    Day two of the Dublin Racing Festival promises to provide plenty of important clues ahead of the Cheltenham Festival, much like day one.

    El Fabiolo and State Man are short prices to oblige in their respective handicaps, though betting propositions away from the Dublin Chase and Irish Champion Hurdle could prove to be fruitful.

    Add Musselburgh’s fascinating card into the equation and Sunday looks like an epic day for national hunt racing.

     

    12:40 Leopardstown – Fleet Of A Dancer @ 6/1 EW with BetVictor 

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    Without trying to steal Andrew Blair White’s thunder, Fleet Of A Dancer holds solid claims in the opening mares’ handicap hurdle.

    Paul Nolan’s five-year-old travelled like much the best horse on her last start at Fairyhouse and danced in at big odds, though she received a 12-pound hike for her troubles.

    That penalty seems fair based on what she did and she clearly has no trouble with the trip.

    Add to the fact that she is ground versatile and has good form in big-field handicaps, she could continue to improve past her current mark of 125.

     

    1:10 Leopardstown – Gaelic Warrior @ 11/10 Win with William Hill

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    It may come as no surprise that Gaelic Warrior is my fancy in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase, but it did surprise me his price of 11/10.

    His tendency to jump out to his right is taken into the price, but on visuals and known form, he deserves his place at the top of the market.

    He is the horse in the lineup that could head to a King George next season and be very competitive, whereas it would be a surprise to see others turn up with a competitive chance in a similar race.

    His jumping on the whole wasn’t too far out to his right at Limerick last time out, and a recreation of that display would see him win this.

     

    1:40 Leopardstown – Ballyburn @ 1/1 Win with William Hill

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    Completing the duo of short-priced favourites, I think Ballyburn will be too good for his rivals in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Chase.

    Farren Glory is probably his biggest danger, and although it looked as if he was going to win the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle on Boxing Day, the level of the British novice hurdlers looks a few pounds below Ireland’s contingent this year.

    Furthermore, although he failed to frank the form in the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle, his second to Firefox is good form in my book and he looked like a proper animal at Leopardstown over Christmas.

    He is short, but I think his price is pretty fair for what he has done and it will take a good one to get the better of him if he is on top form.

     

    3:20 Leopardstown – Heart Wood @ 8/1 EW with BetVictor

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    Coming into this season, Heart Wood was a horse I thought could contend Graded novice chases.

    In fairness to the six-year-old, his form when second to Grangeclare West on seasonal reappearance and second to Blood Destiny in December backs this thought up.

    However, a mark of 136 allows connections to try their hand in handicap company and could severely underestimate his potential.

    Rob Acheson, son of owner Brian, said on a pre-season video with the We’re Going Chasing Podcast that they would expect him to win his beginners chase before trying Graded company.

    That hasn’t quite gone to plan, though running into a subsequent Grade 1 winner in Grangeclare West doesn’t dent his reputation at all.

    He looks well treated off his current mark and the extra furlong around Leopardstown should suit him as well.

     

    4:25 Leopardstown – Switch From Diesel @ 33/1 with BetVictor

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    In the finale of the Dublin Racing Festival, Switch From Diesel has the ability to cause an upset against the well-bred Aurora Vega.

    The five-year-old has contested four bumpers so far, finishing second in two, third in one, and getting the better of Ma Belle Etoile in the other.

    By Yeats, her immediate family has some nifty Flat horses including Egerton, a four-time Group-winning German horse, and Enora, the 2010 German Oaks winner.

    As for her time on the track, although she has to reverse the form with both Baby Kate and Sharp Object, she ran well behind both in the early stages of her career and has notably improved with her racing.

    She highlighted this when her third to Jalon D’Oudairies, a well-fancied Gordon Elliott contender for the Champion Bumper, and Redemption Day, an experienced horse in the bumper scene, on her most recent start.

    Back against her own sex, her Flat-oriented pedigree could put her in good shape for this race, and at 33/1, she is a big price to give a chance to.

     

    British runners

    Over in the UK, two horses are on my list as intriguing bets.

    The first is Thunder Rock over at Musselburgh in the Scottish Champion Chase at 7/2. Max McNeill has a good deal of confidence in him bouncing back from his disappointing effort at Cheltenham and the field in the December Gold Cup was stronger than it is this weekend.

    In the proceeding race, Impact Du Bonheur could get off the mark for Paul Nicholls at 5/1. The £90,000 purchase is sporting first-time blinkers on his second start in a handicap and the heavy ground of Sandown was a negative towards his chance last time out. Better ground should see him go close.

  • Dublin Racing Festival Tips Diamond in Leopardstown rough

    Dublin Racing Festival Tips Diamond in Leopardstown rough

    The Dublin Racing Festival is on our doorstep in what is the final signpost on the road toward the Cheltenham Festival.

    Ireland’s top trainers have prepared their top horses for two top days of entertainment, all kicking off with the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle.

    With Sandown’s Grade 1 card on the same day, here are a few horses to keep onside on Saturday.

    1:20 Leopardstown – Predators Gold @ 13/8 with William Hill

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    In the opener, Predators Gold is a horse I have had on my radar all season and connections have opted to step the five-year-old back up in trip to a more suitable distance.

    After his debut success over hurdles, jockey Paul Townend said he got a feel that made him think he was a Grade 1 horse and that was put to the test on his next start when he finished second to Caldwell Potter in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle.

    The conditions that day were attritional, though he dealt with them well and showed that he is a horse who can compete at this level.

    Of his five rivals, none have proven Grade 1 form in the book, though the horse who could improve to outrun his odds is Stellar Story who beat both Ile Atlantique and Caldwell Potter in the two-mile bumper.

    However, with this uncertainty about the rest, Predators Gold looks like the one who could stamp his mark on the staying novice hurdle division.

    3:00 Leopardstown – Joyeux Machin @ 20/1 with William Hill

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    Paul Nolan’s Joyeux Machin is returning to Leopardstown for the first time since his second to Facile Vega in a bumper back in December 2021, and he could be well treated off 136.

    The seven-year-old has run over fences since the middle of 2023, though he has failed to reach the heights that he promised as a novice hurdler.

    Although returning from fences to hurdles isn’t necessarily positive, his third behind Inthepocket from his debut over hurdles is a nice piece of form and it’s only been six months since he last ran over hurdles.

    His opening success over obstacles saw him finish strongly to beat Viva Devito, a horse who bolted up on his next start in a maiden hurdle, over two miles and he is still unexposed over three miles having won by seven lengths in May 2023 before his second to Minella Crooner over fences.

    He has to put his last race well behind him, but his stint over fences has yet to convince, so a return to hurdles could see him put his best foot forward.

    4:10 Leopardstown – The Folkes Tiara @ 6/1 with Boylesports

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    Although he benefitted from the departure of Path D’Oroux, the way The Folkes Tiara he won at Leopardstown on Boxing Day was very taking.

    He jumped beautifully coming into the home straight and did well to see it out with a few fast-approaching rivals in behind.

    Furthermore, the eight-year-old was second to Final Orders over course and distance before he improved 17 pounds in December 2022 and he was then a good third to Dinoblue – a subsequent Grade 1 winner – in a two-mile handicap at Punchestown.

    He is a nice improver and could continue to go that way off a workable mark.

    4:10 Leopardstown – Grey Diamond @ 18/1 with William Hill

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    Not many horses have moved from Sam Thomas to Gordon Elliott, though Grey Diamond is one who fits that criteria and could hit the frame at a big price.

    The 10-year-old last won off a mark of 135 when bolting up at Haydock in facile fashion, so his mark of 136 – as well as Danny Gilligan’s five-pound claim – puts him on a competitive mark.

    He was given plenty to do from the rear on his first two starts over in Ireland, though his last outing was promising as Jack Kennedy wasn’t asking many questions on the turn for home.

    The Gris De Gris gelding is a good horse on his day, as shown by his third to Amarillo Sky and Fugitif at Cheltenham in November 2022, and he should be a fresh and firing horse on his third run for Elliott. Although this means I am putting up two horses in one race, both are big enough to play each-way.

    British Runners

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    As for the racing over in the UK, three horses look interesting over at Sandown.

    The first comes in the 1:25 at Sandown as Diplomatic Ash looks like a big price at 16/1. The five-year-old is having his handicap debut and showed plenty of promise in novice hurdles behind Walks Like The Man and Idy Wood. A mark of 115 looks lenient and he has a nice pedigree as his mare, Carrigeen Lechuga, is a half-sister to Minella Indo and also achieved a rating of 130 on the track.

    Over an hour later, I think Hermes Allen (11/8) could be too good in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at 2:35. His run in the Kauto Star was good behind Il Est Francais and a drop back to two-and-a-half miles shouldn’t be a worry. He is the Saturday NAP.

    Finally, in the £100,000 handicap hurdle at 3:10, I’m a fan of Transmission at 7/1 for Neil Mulholland. Of course, the recovery of Joe Anderson took all the limelight after his success at Plumpton, but the nature of his overall performance was very good. His maiden hurdle form with Inthepocket and Joyeux Machin suggests 125 is a lenient mark.

  • Lingfield Winter Millions | Chewy to prevail in Masterful fashion

    Lingfield Winter Millions | Chewy to prevail in Masterful fashion

    The last seven days have seen national hunt racing fall victim to the elements, though the final day of the Lingfield Winter Millions meeting should provide a good deal of entertainment.

    Protektorat, L’Homme Presse, and JPR One are horses to be excited about in Britain while a clash between Allaho and Appreciate It would water the mouth of any jumps fan.

    So, let’s get stuck into the action.

     

    Win Bets

    1:15 Lingfield – Master Chewy @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Any loyal followers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel (love you all) might have seen me speak about the Grade 2 Lightening Novices’ Chase at Lingfield and suggest Matata was a “fair enough price” at 8/1.

    At the time, this was a very correct statement, and he is one I think can go well, but at the current prices, my finalised first-choice fancy would go to Master Chewy for the Twiston-Davies team of Sam and Nigel.

    My reason for jumping ship is I took a deeper dive into Master Chewy’s success in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton.

    His overall time was quicker than the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase, won by the 159-rated Editeur Du Gite, and although he carried five fewer pounds (which I’ve taken into consideration), his finishing effort was notably quicker as well.

    His runs this season have shown he can sit handily behind a front-running leader and pounce with speed in the final few furlongs, so with a good pace to aim at thanks to stablemate Matata, Nigel Twiston-Davies seems to have a good hand.

     

    1:50 Lingfield – Saint Segal @ 9/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    As much as we love to tune our minds into thinking where certain horses are heading for specific Cheltenham Festival handicaps, sometimes it’s easier to ignore that and stick to focusing on one day at a time.

    With this mentality onboard, Saint Segal is a horse I’m a big fan of and I think he can win a competitive renewal of the Godstone Handicap Chase.

    I believe that the six-year-old would go well in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham off his current mark of 139, but today’s contest will be weaker than any Cheltenham handicap and today’s winner receives a healthy cheque for £26,405.

    Therefore, why wouldn’t connections want to go for a race like this, especially with a horse who was in the process of beating Boothill at Ascot last time out before falling at the final flight?

    Unfortunately, the handicapper has given him three pounds for that effort but there is still wiggle room off his current official rating and trainer Jane Williams is operating at a 30% strike rate from her last 10 runners.

     

    2:25 Lingfield – Nurse Susan @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    With Cheltenham in mind, it’s interesting that Dan Skelton has given Nurse Susan an entry for both the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle and Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle at this year’s Festival.

    The seven-year-old has good form with Love Envoi since early 2022 and managed to get herself back into the winners’ enclosure at Prestbury Park in December thanks to a gritty performance in a handicap.

    Up just four pounds for the success to 129, she could feasibly still be well-handicapped off that mark and she’s tackling 2m7f for the very first time, something which could see her improve further.

    Skelton and the team have always rated her as a decent animal, so with her rating still at a workable level, hopefully she can continue her progress at Lingfield today.

     

    Each-way Bet

    3:35 Lingfield – Notachance @ 20/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW

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    As for the each-way bet today, I’m taking a chance on Notachance off what is a very reasonable mark.

    The 10-year-old hasn’t lived up to his ability since his third in last year’s Warwick Classic Chase, though as such he has dropped 10lbs since to 122.

    He is a proven stayer for Alan King and some of his good performances have received a nice form boost, notably that Classic Chase third as Mr Incredible subsequently finished third in the King Muir and the fourth, Guetapan Collonges, has improved nine pounds since.

    A spark of revival is needed, but his last few heavy defeats haven’t done him justice and he is a tasty-enough price today in order to take a chance.

  • Warwick Classic Chase Day | Lanzarote plan for Aucunrisque

    Warwick Classic Chase Day | Lanzarote plan for Aucunrisque

    After last weekend’s underwhelming quality of racing, Warwick Classic Chase Day and Graded action from Kempton is a welcome addition to the next few days.

    Da Capo Glory’s success at 4/1 helped the Best Of Bets selections last week, and I’ll be hoping to continue the form today.

     

    Win Bets

    12:40 Warwick – Klitschko @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Starting in the second race at Warwick, I think that Klitschko could be ahead of his mark of 118.

    Today is his second start in a handicap having tried his hand in this company at Lingfield on his seasonal reappearance when he probably needed the run.

    The full brother to Henry de Bromhead’s Arctic Bresil looked smart at Plumpton in February to get off the mark, one run after he finished second on soft ground to Jupiter Du Gite at Newbury; both the third and fourth have improved into the mid-120s which has franked the form.

    With the idea that he’ll come on for his last run, Klitschko has the right attributes to land a knockout blow on Warwick Classic Chase Day.

     

    1:49 Warwick – Mel Monroe @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Although Gordon Elliott doesn’t have the greatest record of winning Pertemps Qualifiers, Mel Monroe has the form in the book to change that trend today.

    The three-mile point-to-point winner has finished behind Encanto Bruno, a good horse for Gavin Cromwell, stablemate Croke Park, and Jessica Harrington’s Jetara this season, all three of which are Graded horses.

    Although we don’t know the strength of this year’s novices and how their form translates into open company, one could guess that it is a step above some of the other pieces of form in today’s Pertemps Qualifier.

    Off 132, if Elliott has Pertemps ambitions with this Walk In The Park mare, she would have to go close to winning today in order to ensure her place in the final.

    Furthermore, the step up in trip is something she has been crying out for and soft ground should be no problem.

     

    3:00 Warwick – Malina Girl @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I may have missed the 8/1 ante-post boat with Malina Girl, but her chances are still as good at 3/1 as they were when she was a bigger price.

    Off top weight, the seven-year-old should be well-suited to a staying trip on soft ground based on her Cheltenham form this season.

    The Gavin Cromwell-trained mare bolted up in November off 135 and was in the process of running a mighty race last month before falling at the third-last, though the handicapper was unable to change her mark because of where she fell.

    Following her run in November at the home of jump racing, the Grand National was briefly mentioned by Sean Flanagan, so she is seemingly well-regarded within the stable.

    With Conor Stone-Walsh claiming a valuable five pounds off her back today. Malina Girl is a rightful favourite and one of my favourite horses from this season.

     

    12:55 Kempton – Gentle Slopes @ 13/8 with William Hill – 2pt Win NAP

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    The NAP of the day comes from Kempton as Gentle Slopes should be too good for the opposition in the two-mile novice hurdle.

    Having switched yards to Nicky Henderson, he scored impressively at Cheltenham in November and was talked up as a potential Challow Hurdle horse for previous trainer Milton Harris, though he decided to calm his ambitions and send him back to Cheltenham in December.

    He disappointed there, as he did at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but his bumper form is ahead of his opposition today and sufficient time away from the track – and a new trainer – could feasibly see him back to his best.

    Hopefully, this is the case as connections once thought plenty of him and today’s seasonal reappearance is a winnable race.

     

    3:15 Kempton – Cap Du Mathan @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Completing the win fancies for today is Paul Nicholls’ Cap Du Mathan in the penultimate race at Kempton.

    This season has not been up to scratch thanks to two pulled-up efforts, though his fourth at Ascot over 2m1f is a good piece of form.

    Boothill went on to win another handicap and was in the process of running a good race in the Desert Orchid before falling, First Flow performed brilliantly when second at Chepstow to Quel Destin, and Saint Segal looked like a winner at Ascot on his next start before falling.

    So, in what was a race that was probably too short for him, he ran a cracker.

    Down three pounds since that race, he is just one pound above his last winning mark and Kempton is a track the nine-year-old has previous form around.

    If he can put his last run behind him, today should be an easier test to get back in the winners’ enclosure.

     

    Each-way Bet

    2:42 Kempton – Aucunrisque @ 22/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Having thought all season that the Betfair Hurdle is his target, Aucunrisque failed to get an entry for Newbury’s feature handicap hurdle next month.

    Although this is an interesting move from connections, it does suggest that today’s Lanzarote Hurdle has been the long-term target.

    With an official rating of 140, just two pounds above his Betfair Hurdle-winning mark, the eight-year-old has good form with the likes of Jetoile (now rated 150), Boothill, and Datsalrightgino.

    The No Risk At All gelding is, in my eyes, a Graded animal that trainer Chris Gordon has managed to get back down to a workable mark, and today’s step up in trip could feasibly see him improve.

    Gordon was one place away from winning this race in 2022 with Highway One O Two, so I’m sure he would like to go one better this year.

  • Lawlors Of Naas Weekend Romay searching for Glory

    Lawlors Of Naas Weekend Romay searching for Glory

    This weekend isn’t vintage for racing, but betting propositions around the intriguing Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle on Sunday look fruitful.

    As of this morning, Wincanton has passed its inspection to add to Newcastle on ITV Racing, while Plumpton and Naas tomorrow should be worth a watch.

    With that in mind, here are my best plays over the next two days.

     

    Win Bets

    12:20 Wincanton – Heros De Romay @ 5/2 with William Hill

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    My heart will always have a soft spot for Espoir De Romay, who never quite progressed after his crashing fall in the 2021 Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase, so it’s understandable why his half-brother, Heros De Romay, is one I want to keep onside.

    The seven-year-old has clearly taken time to come to hand, as his half-brother was already jumping fences by the time he was six, but he made the wait worth it when landing the spoils on his debut at Exeter in January 2023.

    He beat a well-regarded Paul Nicholls horse called Pentire Head that day, something he did again 11 months later on his hurdling debut at Chepstow when putting 31 lengths between himself and Hurricane Danny.

    The form of that race received a boost recently as the third, Minella Blueway, bolted up on Welsh Grand National Day and the second, Livin On Luco, was running well on his next start before falling three out.

    Today’s heavy ground and step up to 2m5f should suit, so hopefully his progression through the ranks can continue.

     

    1:30 Wincanton – Fakir @ 4/1 with William Hill NAP

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    Plenty have their eyes on a few horses in the 1:30 who could be on a ‘dangerous’ mark, but few have looked at Fakir off 101.

    The former Gigginstown-owned gelding has dropped like a stone through the handicap over the last 15 months since his victory at Fontwell in September 2022 off a 22-pound higher mark.

    Despite this, he has shown enough to suggest his relative engine is still there, notably when second on his penultimate start.

    In his time for Joseph O’Brien, the nine-year-old bolted up in a competitive handicap hurdle off 121 on heavy ground, so today’s official rating, plus Bradley Harris’ five-pound claim, looks lenient.

    If this is the case, he should be race-fit following his run at Bangor last month and could cause a small upset in first-time cheekpieces.

     

    1:57 Cork – Da Capo Glory @ 4/1 with BetVictor

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    A fellow horse whom I’ve backed in the past, much like Espoir De Romay, is Da Capo Glory who is running in 1:57 over in Ireland.

    Padraig Butler’s seven-year-old has nice form in the book, notably when second to Grangeclare West, a subsequent Grade 1-winning novice chaser, at Punchestown last year as well as a fourth to Fil Dor and Sharjah in a Grade 3 at Gowran Park in February.

    Today will be his first run of the season, which shouldn’t be a worry as he is 2/3 when running after a break of 100+ days, and although a good deal of his form comes on decent ground, he has won on both heavy and soft before.

    He has to carry top weight today, but a helpful seven pounds is taken off thanks to the jockey’s claim and he should go well.

     

    Each-way Bets

    2:40 Wincanton – Honneur D’Ajonc @ 12/1 with William Hill (three places)

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    Starting the each-way plays at Wincanton today, Jane Williams is operating at a 40% SR over the last two weeks and will be hoping that Honneur D’Ajonc can continue her good run of form.

    The seven-year-old has been disappointing since his victory at Hereford less than a year ago, but because of that he is now four pounds below his last winning mark and the third from that race, Super Six, bolted up on his next start.

    Testing ground is something he enjoys based on his handicap hurdle victory in January 2022, a race that has seen Blackjack Magic improve 19lbs, and his novice hurdle success at Wincanton when giving seven pounds away to a subsequent winner Thanksforthehelp.

    As with many each-way plays, the reason they are this price is they may need to bounce back, but he’s still young enough to do so and is on a really competitive mark.

     

    2:00 Naas (Sunday) – An Tobar @ 17/2 with William Hill

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    Firefox has had a nice boost in form from his success over Ballyburn at Fairyhouse last month, but I’m keeping faith in proven Grade 1 form with An Tobar.

    He’s not a horse I’ve latched onto so far this season, but his third in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Chase is hard to ignore as Farren Glory was running a good race at Aintree in the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle before falling and King Of Kingsfield has won a nice maiden hurdle since.

    He’s proven he handles heavy ground and having won a three-mile PtP over three miles, the step up in trip to two-and-a-half miles should suit him well.

     

    2:50 Plumpton (Sunday) – Rose Of Arcadia @ 13/2 with William Hill

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    In the Sussex National, I have good respect for the favourite, Dom Of Mary, but I don’t want to leave Rose Of Arcadia alone at 13/2.

    Her run at Cheltenham in November was weird as it looked like she didn’t stay over 3m3f but three victories over 3m2f during her career would beg to differ.

    Furthermore, she handles testing conditions well and she has no issues in carrying slightly higher racing weights.

    The nine-year-old is four from eight in handicap company since her two runs in the PtP scene in early 2022, though a few of those losses can be forgiven due to quick ground.

    Add to the fact that she finished a good third to Pink Legend (142) and Galia Des Liteaux (145) on her last start, so as much as I think the favourite has an attractive profile, Rose Of Arcadia’s mark of 128 could be lenient.

     

    (2pt win on the NAP, 1pt win on win fancies, and 1pt each-way on the each-way fancies.)