Best Of Bets

Author: Ashley Symonds

  • Breeders Cup Day 2 History books await for Caravel

    Breeders Cup Day 2 History books await for Caravel

    It’s time for the highly-anticipated second night of the Breeders’ Cup after the fireworks of yesterday.

    The British and Irish charge proved to be deadly yesterday, though my three selections for tonight’s action come from three different continents.

     

    7:10 Santa Anita – Warm Heart @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Warm Heart has been my long-term fancy, alongside many others on Racing X, for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and with the race just a few minutes away, there’s no chance I can ditch her now.

    The challenge of Inspiral, who just shades favouritism, will be a difficult task, though both horses are running over a different distance to their usual trip.

    John & Thady Gosden’s four-year-old tackles 10 furlongs for the first time in her career and a quick scan at her pedigree shows that Celestran, a Dansili half-brother to Inspiral, won over 10 furlongs and even tackled 12 furlongs during his career, so she might be okay with the step up in trip.

    As for Warm Heart, she has a 100% record at 10 furlongs including a victory in the Listed Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes at Newbury earlier this year, suggesting the step down in distance is nothing to worry about.

    Furthermore, master trainer Aidan O’Brien won the race last year with Tuesday, a similar-type horse who had her best form over 12 furlongs before her Breeders’ Cup victory.

    On form, her victories over Sea Silk Road, a future Group 1 Prix de Royallieu winner, Lumiere Rock, a future Group 1 Prix de l’Opera third, and Bluestocking, a subsequent Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes runner-up, all read nicely.

    Although State Occasion did initially pique my interest – and at 40/1, I wouldn’t put you off backing her – due to her progressive profile, Warm Heart is now hampered by the penalty of having my money onboard as she is my main hope.

     

    8:30 Santa Anita – Songline @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    The Breeder’s Cup Mile doesn’t look like a race brimming with class, so the one who could be too good is Songline representing Japan.

    The three-time Grade 1 winner is a proven quick ground horse and comes into tonight’s £1.5 million contest with the benefit of a nice break between the start of June and the start of October.

    Toru Hayashi’s five-year-old got back into the swing of things in the Grade 2 Mainichi Okan in early October over nine furlongs, a race that saw her positioned on the outside for the majority of the contest before her interrupted charge towards the line.

    Once a gap opened up, she stormed on but couldn’t get past Elton Barows who had a facile route on the nearside rail.

    Although she has stall 10 today, she showed good gate speed during her victory from a wide draw in the Group 1 Yasuda Kinen and if she does the same today, Songline could negate her outside draw.

     

    11:25 Santa Anita – Caravel @ 6/1 with William Hill – 2pt EW

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    Two horses, Mizdirection and Stormy Liberal, have won back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprints since 2012 and Caravel is looking to do the same this year.

    The six-year-old sprung a surprise in last year’s renewal to beat Emaraaty Ana, Creative Force, and Highfield Princess at odds of 43/1; that form is very hot and she had a tough stall in 10 to navigate that day.

    Since then, the Mizzen Mast mare won three in a row until her defeat in the Grade 3 Troy Stakes on soft ground in August and afterwards, connections gave her a break until a good second in the Grade 2 Franklin Stakes 20 days ago.

    That run should have the Brad Cox-trained contender spot on for today’s target and from stall three, she could leave this field in her dust.

  • Charlie Hall Chase 2023 | Thyme to win for Hill

    Charlie Hall Chase 2023 | Thyme to win for Hill

    The Breeders’ Cup kicked off a good weekend of racing action last night and before they regain the baton later today, eyes will turn to Charlie Hall Chase Day at Wetherby alongside an intriguing card at Ascot.

    There are a few horses that I want to be on the side of today, so let’s dive straight in.

     

    1:15 Wetherby – Eaton Collina @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    For anyone who watched the latest Only Fools Love Horses video, you may have a nice ante-post docket for Eaton Collina at 10/1 who is now a few points shorter.

    Kerry Lee’s eight-year-old won twice as a novice chaser in early 2023, one of which was a 20-length demolition at Ascot in April and the other occurred at Chepstow in February; he beat Triple Trade, Joe Tizzard’s progressive seven-year-old that has improved 16 pounds since the run, on latter of those victories, so the form looks good.

    Although he was beaten on seasonal reappearance in 2022 and 2021, Lee has had her horses fit and firing for their first runs this season, notably with Nemean Lion in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and Kraqueline at Wincanton on October 29th.

    If this is the case, Eaton Collina looks like a typical improving type and hopefully, his mark of 118 is still workable.

     

    2:05 Ascot – Saint Segal @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    The first of my selections from Ascot comes in a competitive contest over two miles, and after much deliberation, Saint Segal is the one that I’ve fallen on.

    Firstly, I appreciate the notion that horses trained by Jane Williams tend to come on for their first run of the season – as shown with this horse last season – but the market is positive for his chances and he’s had plenty of time to get ready for today.

    The five-year-old by Saint Des Saints relished fences last season with two wins and a staying-on second to his name.

    His Hereford success in early January took place on soft ground, suggesting today’s conditions will suit him well, and he even put up a good performance on quick ground at Doncaster 23 days later, showing he has a big engine.

    Reading comments from Williams in James Stevens’ 2023/24 Horses To Follow (South West Edition), connections love this horse at home and a rating of 137 looks lenient.

    With a few in here potentially at the top of their handicap mark or with bigger targets down the line, today could be the day to catch Saint Segal on his first run after a wind-op.

     

    2:25 Wetherby – Thyme Hill @ 2/1 with Betvictor – 2pt Win

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    The Grade 2 bet365 Hurdle has just six options to pick from this year, and the favourite Thyme Hill looks like the obvious one for a good reason.

    Although last season didn’t go to plan over fences, the nine-year-old still retained his ability on the track when bolting up at Exeter on his chasing debut before his commanding display in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase on Boxing Day.

    His two losses over fences came when the ground was too quick at Newbury in November and when never firing during the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham.

    Today, he comes into the race on the back of a 189-day break, something he’s not averse to doing as he won on seasonal reappearance in 2022, 2020, and 2019 as well as his win in the 2021 Grade 1 Ryanair Stayers Hurdle at Aintree following a 112-day break.

    With his good record on soft and heavy ground – as shown by his second to Paisley Park in the 2020 Long Walk Hurdle on heavy and second to Flooring Porter in the 2022 Stayers’ Hurdle on soft – a lot is seemingly in his favour today.

     

    2:40 Ascot – Ten Lengths Tom @ 5/1 General – 1pt EW

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    Betting in novice hurdles in October is risky business at the best of times, let alone when the ground is testing, but there’s plenty to like about the profile of Ten Lengths Tom for the Tom Lacey yard.

    The four-year-old ran in two bumpers last season, the first of which occurred at Sandown when sandwiched by a pair of Paul Nicholls runners on good to soft ground.

    The exciting Inthewaterside won the race, a horse who won on hurdling debut at Aintree earlier this week, with the well-regarded Wrappedupinmay eight lengths behind in third.

    The Mount Nelson gelding then went to Warwick for his next start and bolted up by five-and-a-half lengths having travelled cooly into the race under Stan Sheppard before he was asked to quicken away with just over a furlong ago.

    He showed an impressive turn of foot over two miles that day in what was deplorable conditions at Warwick, suggesting today’s deep ground at Ascot should cause no issues.

    The two horses ahead of him in the market – Jango Baie and Tellherthename – come from the point-to-point scene, so with the chance that both of them may need further in time after today’s hurdling debut, Ten Lengths Tom looks like a solid contender.

     

    3:15 Ascot – Altobelli @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    The form of Harry Fry’s yard over the last few weeks makes for tough reading, though that can hopefully change with Altobelli in the 3:15 at Ascot.

    The five-year-old by Maxios was well-spoken of by connections last season as a novice hurdler to follow and his 25-length victory at Carlisle certainly showed his booming ability.

    Things didn’t go his way when sent to the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in April, though I’m happy to forgive him as it was his first outing in a Grade 1 on ever-quickening Aintree ground.

    Although Fry may have one eye on the Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle over course and distance in December, his form of beating Uncle Bert (a two-time hurdles winner since) and Ginny’s Destiny (rated 135 over hurdles) last season is hard to ignore.

    Connections think Altobelli is a Graded horse in the making, so off his current mark of 131 in conditions that should suit, hopefully he is bang on to take home this £60,000 contest.

  • Breeders Cup | Carla’s Way on the highway

    Breeders Cup | Carla’s Way on the highway

    With weather-related abandonments sweeping across the UK and Ireland this weekend, the one meeting we can rely on is the glorious Breeders’ Cup.

    Hosted at Santa Anita, with a scenic view in the backdrop, the next two days of American action should entice all fans of racing whether you prefer the jumps or the Flat.

    Three juvenile Grade 1 races take place on the Santa Anita turf course this evening and I have three fancies to bring you down below, though one occurs in a Listed contest earlier in the card.

     

    7:40 Santa Anita – Elm Drive @ 5/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Although this isn’t a Grade 1, the Listed Senator Ken Maddy Stakes at 7:40 over six-and-a-half furlongs has caught my attention as Elm Drive is the one I’m with.

    White Moonlight represents Saeed bin Suroor at the head of the market, a horse I backed in defeat at Goodwood last time out, and today’s trip is her first career try at the distance.

    Despite her form when beating Heredia at Musselburgh in June, I’m happy to let her win at 11/4 on her first start for 93 days.

    Because of this, Elm Drive looks like a worthy second-favourite to take her on with as Philip D’Amato’s four-year-old by Mohaymen has good course and distance form from her decisive victory over Honey Pants in May 2023.

    Following that run on the turf, she switched to the dirt for her next three outings, two of which proved to be valiant performances in defeat when third in the Grade 2 Great Lady M Stakes in July and third in the Grade 1 Clement L Hirsch Stakes in August.

    The latter of which occurred over eight-and-a-half furlongs, a trip that looked to be slightly too far as she faded in the final few furlongs; the winner, Adare Manor, bolted up by five-and-a-quarter lengths on her next start to frank the form.

    At 5/1, it’s a classic scummy each-way play, but that’s how I’ll play the race.

     

    9:00 Santa Anita – Crimson Advocate @ 4/1 with Boylesports – 1pt Win

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    George Weaver came to Royal Ascot this year and walked away with the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes in his clutches thanks to Crimson Advocate, and he’ll be hoping to build on that success in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

    Now sporting the colours of Wathnan Racing, the Nyquist filly hasn’t been seen since that success here in the UK, so one might hold a small amount of worry coming into today off a 135-day break, though surely connections will have her spot on for a race as prestigious and valuable as this.

    At first glance, the Juvenile Turf Sprint looks to have plenty of pace as Big Evs, No Nay Mets, Cherry Blossom, and Slider all have the ability to race prominently.

    Crimson Advocate also made all on her second start of the season at Gulfstream in May and led the field from the one-furlong pole to the line at Ascot, so she could do something similar from stall one if breaking well.

    That being said, if she breaks slower than some of her competitors, there will be a strong pace ahead of her to aim at and with her experience over five furlongs on quick ground around a bend, she could make a late charge to the wire under John Velazquez.

    As much as I would love to see Big Evs land the spoils for Mick Appleby and Tom Marquand, Crimson Advocate looks like a strong contender and with 4/1 available, that looks like a good price.

     

    10:20 Santa Anita – Carla’s Way @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    As explained yesterday on X, I’m a big fan of Carla’s Way for Simon & Ed Crisford and hopefully, today can be her time to land a Grade 1 contest.

    The Starspangledbanner filly picked up her second victory of the season in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket in late September, a race that has worked out well in the form books as Ylang Ylang and Shuwari filled out the first two places in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile on their next start.

    Visually, the manner of her success over seven furlongs at HQ impressed me the most as she sat prominently throughout alongside the early pacesetter Spiritual, clocking furlongs of 11.26, 11.04, and 11.06 between the one-furlong and four-furlong poles.

    As Spiritual began to fade back – partly due to her ability and the early pace – James Doyle’s mount continued to press on, leaving Shuwari and Ylang Ylang with work to do.

    Inevitably, they didn’t catch Carla’s Way who needed little encouragement to win by two-and-a-quarter lengths.

    As stated in a piece for The Irish Field (shameless plug) and in the tweet above, her pedigree – Starspangledbanner out of Sulaalaat – does worry me for her staying a mile, though a fast-paced American race should be a nice introduction to eight furlongs ahead of next season.

    All in all, she looks like the best horse on paper and if she can navigate the task of stall nine, hopefully she will have a Grade 1 success next to her name by the end of today.

  • Cheltenham October Meeting Tips | In Byrnes we trust

    Cheltenham October Meeting Tips | In Byrnes we trust

    The Cheltenham October Meeting signifies that the jumps are well and truly back in town.

    Whether you love seeing two-mile hurdlers rattle around the banked course of Prestbury Park, or you prefer watching a three-mile chasing slug it out from the front, the home of jump racing has a bit of everything today.

    As is the case every week, the three horses below are my strongest fancies on what is a tricky day at HQ.

    1:15 Cheltenham – Haddex Des Obeaux @ 5/2 – 1pt Win

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    The opening contest at Cheltenham is a great two-mile handicap chase with horses like Before Midnight, Red Rookie, and Notlongtillmay providing good depth.

    That being said, I’m with the favourite to kick off the day as Haddex Des Obeaux is a horse I have lots of time for.

    The French-bred six-year-old had a turbulent season for Gary Moore last season thanks to two victories, one unlucky second, and an unseating on seasonal debut.

    However, the class he showed on his last two starts of the season proved to many why he could be a Graded horse in time.

    The first of which occurred at Doncaster where he made all to beat Coastguard Staton, Nero Rock and Datsalrightgino, the latter being a horse who is rated 11 pounds higher and is a Grade 2-winning novice chaser.

    Less than three weeks later, he jumped brilliantly on heavy ground to bolt up by 19 lengths before he suffered a setback and Moore called time on his season.

    Off an official rating of 146 today, it looks as if connections have a horse for Graded races further down the line so making use of his lenient handicap mark is a good way to kick off the season.

    Although In Excelsis Deo looks like an interesting proposition on just his fifth start over fences for Harry Fry and is probably the each-way angle into a race like this, Haddex Des Obeaux is a horse I like and hopefully, he can reward my love for him in the opener.

    3:00 Cheltenham – Gortmillish @ 12/1 – 1pt EW

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    As is the case with many Pertemps Qualifiers, they are tough races to find a strong bet in, though the 12/1 price of Gortmillish has caught my attention.

    Trained by Gordon Elliott, someone who is partial to a Cheltenham winner at The Showcase, the seven-year-old comes to Prestbury Park with the standard Irish tax applied to his handicap mark, though the five-pound claim of Danny Gilligan (on his only ride at Cheltenham today) should help diminish that.

    The three-mile point-to-point winner scored twice for Cullentra House Stables over hurdles in the summer; once over two miles when well-fancied at Perth and once over 2m6f at Downpatrick three weeks later.

    The form of his success two starts ago has worked out well since as the second, Charlie Luciano, beat Elliott’s Calico on his next start and the third, Lisnamult Lad, now has an official rating of 131 having bolted up by a combined 44.5 lengths on his next two starts for John McConnell.

    For a horse rated 123 over in the UK, that in isolation makes him look like a well-handicapped horse, and the fact he finished a staying-on second to My Mate Mozzie in at Punchestown bumper in April 2021 further adds to that idea.

    If Elliott thinks Gortmillish could be a potential for the Pertemps Final in March, winning today would help improve his handicap mark to make sure he gets into the race, so today could be the day to catch him.

    3:35 Cheltenham – Reverend Hubert @ 4/1 – 2pt Win

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    The Irish have a strong hand in the three-mile novice hurdle later today, though I’m steering away from the head of the market and putting my trust in Reverend Hubert for Charles and Philip Byrnes.

    Firstly, I think that Willie Mullins’ High Class Hero is quite a smart novice hurdler, so it comes with the territory that if a horse can get to within six lengths of him, they might be above average.

    That’s what Reverend Hubert did on his last start 35 days ago on the softer-than-ideal ground at Listowel having travelled well into the race around the outside of the field.

    High Class Hero bolted up by seven lengths on his next start, franking the form for Charles Byrnes’ five-year-old.

    The former Richard Hannon-trained gelding, who achieved a career-high mark of 86 on the Flat in 2022, broke his maiden tag over hurdles when a facile eight-length winner at Downpatrick on good ground in August; the second, Ringdufferin, won two-on-the-bounce after that and actually runs in the Pertemps Qualifier in the race before.

    With form over two miles on the Flat, I see no reason why Reverend Hubert won’t stay three miles and his experience could see him get the better of Antrim Coast, Gavin Cromwell’s thrice-raced five-year-old who heads the market.

  • British Champions Day | Awaal or nothing – The Top Three

    British Champions Day | Awaal or nothing – The Top Three

    British Champions Day is the annual finale to the Flat turf season here in the UK, and what a year we have had.

    From Mostahdaf’s defiant performance in the Juddmonte International to Paddington’s string of Group 1s; Aidan O’Brien’s two British Classics and Tony Carroll’s Racing League winner, 2023 has experienced plenty of uplifting moments.

    Soft ground is on the menu for British Champions Day this year and with this in mind, three horses stand out as good plays for the season-crowing raceday, so let’s dive in.

     

    2:25 Ascot – Bluestocking @ 8/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    Bluestocking is a horse that I have dodged all season, something that has produced good success most of the time, however, that will all change this weekend as she is the one I’m backing in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes.

    Ralph Beckett’s Camelot filly has been a consistent horse for connections thanks to her five consecutive top four performances this season.

    She began her year at Newbury when second by a head to Warm Heart, a subsequent two-time Group 1 winner, in the Listed Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes.

    Following that, she finished third to Warm Heart again in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot on ground that was probably too quick for her, something that can also be said for her fourth-place effort in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks in August.

    Splitting both of these runs was her second to Savethelastdance in the Group 1 Irish Oaks on soft ground, a race that saw her beat Lumiere Rock and Warm Heart who admittedly didn’t have her ideal conditions.

    Following a slightly disappointing second at Chester last time out, connections have applied first-time cheekpieces and the slower conditions should suit her better than a few others.

    8/1 seems like a good price for a horse who has run into Group 1-level horses all season, many of which are not up against her on Saturday.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Paddington @ 9/4 General – 2pt Win

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    Forgive me if I’ve missed something, but I can’t believe Paddington is as big as 9/4 for the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

    Admittedly, this is the second-toughest field that the Siyouni colt has taken on all year, but how much is there to worry about regarding his market rivals?

    Tahiyra is a horse he has yet to face this season and in the current form she is in, you can understand her well-fancied nature.

    However, her form with Meditate, Remarquee, and Rogue Millenium is below the level of horses Paddington has battled with this season and trainer Dermot Weld did state at the start of the month that he wanted the ground to be “suitable” and not “too heavy” if Tahiyra was to run, so this week’s deluge hasn’t helped her chances.

    In my eyes, Nashwa is the biggest danger to Aidan O’Brien’s 125-rated three-year-old based on her third to Auguste Rodin in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes and her second in the Group 1 Juddmonte International.

    Although she finished ahead of Paddington at York, I think those placings can be reversed as this was Paddington’s first start on good to firm ground and he was racing just 21 days after a gruelling effort in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes on soft ground.

    Furthermore, Paddington kept close to Mostahdaf’s powerful gallop in second place for the majority of the contest whereas Nashwa bided her time in third and picked up the pieces late on, so she had an easier route through.

    With the benefit of nearly two months on the sidelines, Paddington will be a fresh horse and everything in his breeding suggests slow ground should be no problem, making the 9/4 about him an attractive price.

    4:25 Ascot – Awaal @ 9/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    The Balmoral Handicap is always a tough race to decipher and this year’s soft going on Ascot’s straight course doesn’t help the puzzle at all.

    Plenty in here hold interesting profiles and should handle the ground – The Gatekeeper, Baradar, and Bennetot as examples – but Awaal at 9/1 is the one who has turned my head.

    Simon & Ed Crisford have experienced a season to remember in 2023 thanks to recent victories in the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein, Group 2 Rockfel Stakes, and Group 3 Prix Quincey as well as the Group 1 accolades picked up with Vandeek.

    Awaal is unlucky not to have landed another big pot for the yard having placed in the Lincoln, Royal Hunt Cup, Bunbury Cup, and Guisborough Stakes.

    Despite his consistently good performances, the handicapper has looked leniently upon the Lope De Vega gelding as his official rating of 104 looks more than fair considering the horses he has run into.

    The likes of Migration, Jimi Hendrix, Sonny Liston, and Biggles have all finished ahead of him this year, and although a few of these reappear on Saturday, Awaal should have the ability to win a race like this off his current mark whereas Migration and Sonny Lison have a few extra pounds in the handicap to carry.

    With conditions set to suit, Awaal could be dangerous breaking out stall 22 and if he gets a clear route, he looks a fair each-way bet at 9/1.

  • Chepstow Jumps Opener | Molly Wishing for Silver Trophy success

    Chepstow Jumps Opener | Molly Wishing for Silver Trophy success

    It was really good to be back at the Chepstow Jumps Opener yesterday, not just because of the thrill of proper national hunt racing, but also due to the fact I got to see a stunning chasing debut with my own eyes.

    Chianti Classico provided BestofBets readers with some tidy profit yesterday as Kim Bailey’s six-year-old jumped like an experienced chaser and won snugly under David Bass.

    His win made up for the agonising defeat of Aye Right in the opener, so it really was a day of mixed emotions yesterday.

    Looking at today, fewer horses stand out as clearly as they did yesterday, however, three horses still grabbed my attention for the second day of action at the Welsh course.

     

    3:10 Chepstow – Collectors Item @ 10/1 General – 1pt Win

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    Heavy ground is on the menu at Chepstow today after yesterday’s deluge, something that can only benefit the chance of Collectors Item in the Listed Novices’ Chase at 3:10.

    The Jonjo O’Neill-trained six-year-old won on this card last year in the two-mile novice hurdle to beat Hugos New Horse by two-and-a-quarter lengths; Hugos New Horse went on to win four races after this run to frank the form.

    This performance over the minimum distance surprised connections as they always thought he would be better over a further distance, though his victory at this track and second at Newbury over two miles in a bumper shows that he has plenty of speed.

    After the turn of the new year, the £115,000 purchase won on his first start at three miles to beat Makin’yourmindup, though Paul Nicholls’ six-year-old reversed the form in the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle one month later.

    When speaking to Jonjo O’Neill Jnr last season, he said that “whatever he does this year is a bonus as he will definitely go over fences” and that he was still growing into his frame at the start of this year.

    One can deduce from these comments that he slightly overperformed expectations last year and, interestingly, connections are sending him into this Listed contest on his first run over fences.

    Admittedly, Collectors Item has to find a bit on ratings with Knappers Hill and Unexpected Party, however, there’s a chance that Paul Nicholls’ Grade 2-winning hurdler prefers better ground and Dan Skelton’s second-season novice still needs to prove himself over fences.

    Although today’s task is over 2m3f, Collectors Item is a proven stayer over further and with conditions set to be in his favour, this unexposed type could take a big step forward today.

     

    4:15 Chepstow – Molly Ollys Wishes @ 8/1 General – 1pt EW

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    The £70,000 Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle highlights the second day of the Chepstow Jumps Opener and plenty here have interesting profiles.

    Both Uncle Bert and Sign From Above lured me in for a prolonged look into their form, though the one I couldn’t get away from was Molly Ollys Wishes at 8/1.

    Despite her victory in the Listed bet365 Mares’ Hurdle in October, the nine-year-old mare had a season to forget last year as she was unfound in her five subsequent runs, although three of them can be forgiven due to trip and ground reasons.

    Having started last season on an official mark of 143, Dan Skelton’s experienced hurdler rocks up to today’s Silver Trophy off a mark of 134 and with Tristan Durrell’s valuable five-pound claim, she is very well-handicapped on all known form.

    Admittedly, one has to go back to December 2020 for her last handicap victory when successful off a mark of 130 under Harry Skelton at Kempton, but from there, Molly Ollys Wishes was pitched into 11 straight level-weights contests and managed to win the Grade 2 SBK Mares’ Hurdle in January 2022 and three Listed-level races.

    Of these four most recent victories, all of them came off a break of at least 50 days and two of them were on her seasonal reappearance, so her record when fresh is impeccable.

    Furthermore, all four of these victories came on ground varying from good to soft (Wetherby) to heavy (Warwick), so today’s heavy conditions should suit well.

    As suggested, a few unexposed types in here could show vast improvement, but with the well-handicapped nature of Molly Ollys Wishes, it’s hard to leave her alone.

     

    4:50 Chepstow – Despereaux @ 7/1 General – 1pt EW

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    Since the non-runner announcement of Afadil yesterday, Chepstow’s penultimate race turned into an interesting betting contest and the one that appeals the most is Despereaux at 7/1.

    Jane Williams’ four-year-old comes into his seasonal reappearance as an unexposed prospect having raced just five times last season.

    He showed plenty of greenness during his first run in a junior national hunt hurdle at Ffos Las, so much so that he ran himself out before the final flight.

    This exuberance continued into his second start at Huntingdon in November, though David Noonan managed to hold him together after the last and guided him home to what was an impressive half-a-length success.

    After Christmas, the Great Pretender gelding rocked up to a hot Class 2 juvenile hurdle at Huntingdon and despite what the eight-length third may suggest, he performed well in the circumstances.

    In a race won by Perseus Way, a Gary Moore-trained gelding that went on to finish second in the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle on his next start, Despereaux jumped the last hurdle one-length behind the eventual winner, however, he made a big blunder which cost him any chance at winning the race.

    Even with this final flight mistake, he ran through the line well under Noonan to finish five lengths behind the second, Samuel Spade; Ben Pauling’s four-year-old bolted up by 16 lengths on his next start, further franking the form.

    Following an impressive two-length victory at Taunton in March and a disappointing effort in the big Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at Ascot, Despereaux finds himself on a workable mark of 116, the second-lowest rating in the race.

    I find it hard to believe he is the second-worst horse in today’s four-year-old hurdle, so for this reason, taking a swing at 7/1 looks like an exciting idea.

  • Chepstow Jumps Opener | Right place, Right time

    Chepstow Jumps Opener | Right place, Right time

    Yes, there is Group 1 action at Newmarket on Friday, but tomorrow is the Chepstow jumps opener and I can’t contain my excitement.

    In isolation, the action at Chepstow wouldn’t knock your socks off, but it’s the wider picture of the ‘proper’ national hunt season starting today that I can’t stop thinking about.

    Ahead of flag-fall at the Welsh track, today’s The Top Three includes three horses to consider on the curtain-raiser of the winter jumps campaign.

     

    1:35 Chepstow – Aye Right @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    I always find veteran chases interesting contests to try and find a bet in as experienced, lovable characters get to compete against horses of a similar ability at their grand age. What more can you ask for?

    The opening race at Chepstow includes a nice flurry of nostalgia and of the 10-runner field, it’s Aye Right that makes the most appeal.

    The highest-rated horse in the race is down to a mark of 150 which seems lenient considering he finished second in last year’s Edinburgh Gin Chase when officially rated six pounds higher.

    The form of Kelso’s feature race of the year has worked out well as the winner, Sounds Russian, finished second to Ahoy Senor in the 2023 Cotswold Chase and is now rated 11 pounds higher and the sixth, Eva’s Oskar, won a valuable Cheltenham handicap two months later.

    Speaking of the Cotswold Chase, you don’t have to go back too far through the form book to see Aye Right’s third-place effort in the 2022 renewal behind the two-time Grade 1 winner Chantry House and the lovable Santini.

    In a veterans chase like this against some horses who would appreciate better ground, Aye Right will enjoy the rain-softened Chepstow ground and with a healthy first-time-out record on his side, 4/1 seems a fair price.

     

    3:23 Chepstow – Chianti Classico @ 11/4 General – 2pt Win

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    As someone who lives in Gloucestershire and covers the sport for Gloucestershire Live, it seems fitting that on the elected ‘first day of the national hunt season’, I should put up Chianti Classico for the Andoversford-based Kim Bailey.

    I spoke to Bailey at the end of last season and one horse we spoke about was this gelding by Shantou who he holds in high regard at Thorndale Farm, so much so that he ran him in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

    Unfortunately for connections, he pulled up before the last flight in a messy renewal of the staying novice hurdle, though a vet assessment revealed he had post-race heat stress which could explain parts of the run.

    Before that, the six-year-old bolted up on good to soft ground at Wincanton by 24 lengths under David Bass to beat Stoner’s Choice, who went on to win 107 days later for Fergal O’Brien, and the brilliant galloper also has course form on his side thanks to his length-and-a-quarter victory over Henri The Second last October.

    With an official rating of 133, it’s interesting that connections are sending him into a novices’ handicap chase tomorrow rather than a standard novice chase on his first start over fences.

    With the yard in good form – two winners from eight runners in the last 14 days – and having his first start after a wind-op, Chanti Classico is an unexposed type who should be a cracking chaser this season.

     

    3:58 Chepstow – Politacus @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    It looks as if the Fergal O’Brien yard is back on song following three winners over the last two days, one of which was an impressive debut over hurdles performance from Kamsinas at Worcester.

    With this in mind, taking a swing at Politacus on her first public outing over obstacles doesn’t look like a bad idea.

    In what will be the first and final piece of self-promotion in The Top Three, I went down to Ravenswell Farm last week to talk to O’Brien ahead of the season starting and one horse we discussed was his five-year-old mare by Epaulette.

    The esteemed trainer explained that he thought her fourth in the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at the Aintree Grand National Festival behind stablemate Dysart Enos showed good promise and the stamina she displayed over an extended two-mile trip is something to be excited about.

    Therefore, today’s step up in trip to 2m3f should work well and the rain that Chepstow will receive overnight will also benefit her chances.

    Furthermore, Politacus has impressed in her schooling work at home and when asked about how good she could be this year, O’Brien said: “If Politacus shows on the track what she has been showing at home, she won’t be a million miles behind [Dysart Enos].”

    Today’s task for Politacus won’t be simple thanks to the inclusion of Florencethemachine, a £120,000 purchase for Paul Nicholls, and Similar Story, a £32,000 buy for Suart Coltherd who bolted up by 12 lengths on her last point-to-point start, but my faith in her remains in conditions that should suit.

  • Sun Chariot Day | King and Queen of Newmarket – The Top Three

    Sun Chariot Day | King and Queen of Newmarket – The Top Three

    Ahead of Sun Chariot Day on ITV Racing, The Top Three is in a good run of form following the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe card last week.

    All three of Sunday’s selections returned profit and the weekly column finally found a big-priced winner as Kelina fought off the challenge of Kinross to win the Group 1 Prix de la Foret at 16/1.

    Hopefully this can continue on what is an action-packed Saturday as I have three horses to consider from Ascot and Newmarket.

     

    1:50 Ascot: Emaraaty Ana @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    It’s always hard to walk away from one of your cliff horses as you always ask yourself the question of ‘what if’.

    Luckily, coming into the 2023 Flat season I had managed to shake my attachment to Emaraaty Ana, however, I’ve fallen off the wagon and now firmly believe he is the most likely winner of the Listed Rous Stakes at Ascot at 11/4.

    The seven-year-old stalwart returns to five furlongs for the first time since his third in the 2022 Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes behind Highfield Princess and The Platinum Queen, though he did finish a very good second in the most recent Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint behind Caravel over five-and-a-half furlongs.

    Add his second to Winter Power in the 2021 Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes and facile victory at Hamilton in July 2021 into the mix and his record over the minimum distance begins to read favourably.

    Despite his age and 31 runs under rules, Kevin Ryan’s Shamardal gelding appears to be in good form based on his neck second to Lezoo – a Group 1 Cheveley Park winner – in the Listed Hopeful Stakes earlier this season as well as his fair third in the Listed Garrowby Stakes at York last month.

    Admittedly, I did question if I was missing something when I saw his price of 11/4 this morning, but his draw in stall two appears to be accounted into his price as high draws were benefitting on the straight course at Ascot yesterday.

    I’m hopeful that his class and a bit of luck can make up for his draw because if this happens, Emaraaty Ana holds a strong chance to return to the winners’ enclosure for the first time in over two years.

     

    2:40 Newmarket: Queen Emma @ 5/2 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    Despite my constant barrage of Tony Carroll propaganda, the William Haggas stable ranks quite highly on the list of my favourite trainers in the Flat game.

    From the jockeys they use to how Haggas is in post-race interviews and everything in between, there’s a lot to like.

    Somerville Lodge has eight runners across four tracks to keep an eye on today, though Queen Emma is the one I’m most excited to see in the 1m4f fillies’ handicap at Newmarket.

    The three-year-old by Saxon Warrior comes into her third handicap contest in good form following two victories and a second in her last three races.

    One of those successes came at Goodwood in late August where she travelled smartly into the race and, after a bit of encouragement from Adam Farragher, showed her three rivals a clean set of heels; the second, Madame Ambassador, bolted up by four lengths at Newmarket on her next start, suggesting the form is reliable.

    Furthermore, she was equally as impressive during her first victory of the season as she came four-wide around the bend at Lingfield and managed to make up the five-length deficit between her and the runner-up Marmara Sea with ease; similarly to her Goodwood win, the form looks good as Marmara Sea won on handicap debut at Haydock less than two months later.

    Although she failed to make it a hat-trick last time out, the softer conditions potentially stumped her chances slightly, so the return to a better surface should suit today.

    All in, the booking of Frankie Dettori can only be a positive move for Queen Emma who looks to hold a brilliant chance in the 2:45 at Newmarket.

     

    4:45 Ascot: Existent @ 11/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    I’ve stuck with the theme of horses running in yellow and black silks at Ascot today as in the finale, Existent deserves a chance at 11/1 with Boylesports.

    On paper, plenty would suggest that trusting Stuart Williams’ five-year-old by Kingman is a brave move considering the last time he found the winners’ enclosure was 20 runs ago, yet I’m reluctant to leave him alone thanks to his well-handicapped nature.

    That’s because his official rating of 90 is 10 pounds below his Goodwood second in August, 12 pounds below his promising fifth over course and distance last month and four pounds below his last winning mark.

    That is an incredible fall through the weights for a horse who finished fourth in the Group 2 Temple Stakes in late May, just half a length behind the subsequent Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes winner Live In The Dream.

    Out of stall 10, Existent is the best horse in this race on bare form and with Hector Crouch, a jockey who knows him, back in the saddle, he looks a decent each-way play in the final race at Ascot.

  • Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The hope is not Over

    Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The hope is not Over

    Day one of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe began well yesterday as the best bet of the day, VANDEEK, obliged in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, further improving his reputation and my love for him.

    Today, the feature event takes place at 3:05 and I have a fancy to share as well as two other horses to consider.

    It’s set to be a brilliant day today and I can’t wait for the action to begin.

     

    3:05 Longchamp: Westover @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    As is the nature of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, no one would be knocked off their feet if any of the 15 runners passed the famous winning post in front.

    Remember, it’s only been two years since Torquator Tasso won the prestigious 1m4f contest at odds of 72/1, so anything can truly happen.

    I’m hoping that won’t happen this year as Westover is my number one Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe horse.

    The four-year-old colt by Frankel has performed brilliantly all season in four separate Group 1 races; his worst run of the year occurred when second to Emily Upjohn in the Coronation Cup at Epsom which says a lot.

    Ralph Beckett’s stable star began the season with a massive run in the Group 1 Sheema Classic in Meydan behind the world-class Equinox; three horses who finished behind Westover in the Sheema Classic – Zagrey, Russian Emperor, and Mostahdaf – have all won Group 1 races since with the latter succeeding in the Prince Of Wales’s and Juddmonte International.

    Following his fine effort at Epsom in June, he swept aside Zagrey in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud before his valiant effort when second to Hukum in the Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes on his most recent outing.

    The reason why I’m with Westover rather than Hukum is due to the difference in the draw – stall one for Westover against stall 14 for Hukum – and there seems to be an aroma around Owen Burrows’ Sea The Stars entire that he doesn’t want rattling fast ground.

    With this in mind, Westover will have no problems with the official going of good, good to firm in places, and at 7/1, he is my bet in the season-defining race.

     

    3:50 Longchamp: Lumiere Rock @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Group 1 Prix de l’Opera is a tricky puzzle to work out as many questions require answers ahead of the 10-furlong fillies and mares contest.

    Will Blue Rose Cen bounce back on the ground? Can we forgive Al Husn for York? Why has Tony Carroll not got a runner in the race?

    Each of those questions is as pertinent as one another, though the horse who seems to hold most of the answers is Joseph O’Brien’s Lumiere Rock at 6/1.

    The chestnut filly by Saxon Warrior is no stranger to competitive, high-class races thanks to her five consecutive attempts in Group-level contests since the start of May.

    The three-year-old, purchased for just 55,000gns at the 2021 Tattersalls October Yearlings Sale, got her head in front for the first time this season in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes last time out.

    Again, one could question where Jackie Oh, who reappears today, might have finished if her path to the line was clear, yet let’s take nothing away from the eventual winner who looked like the winner for the majority of the contest.

    Furthermore, her second in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot reads favourably thanks to two subsequent Group 1 victories for the winner, Warm Heart; Bluestocking (3rd) ran well on her next two starts in Group 1 company and even the eighth, Lmay, finished third to Sumo Sam in the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster recently.

    She is likely to appreciate the better ground and with the cheekpieces remaining on for today’s task, Lumiere Rock should be a lively contender in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera.

     

    5:00 Longchamp: Kelina @ 16/1 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

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    My persistence to take on Kinross at every station this season has experienced its ups and downs, though my bank account is beginning to get worried after his two victories at York and Goodwood recently.

    Despite his obvious claims, the 16/1 floating about for Kelina in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret is too big to leave alone as an each-way proposition.

    The three-year-old filly by Frankel receives a handy four pounds from her older rivals and has progressed nicely for trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias this season.

    Her 2023 kicked off with a nice second in a one-mile event at Longchamp on soft ground in April before a valiant effort to finish fourth in the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches behind Blue Rose Cen, a future Group 1 Prix de Diane winner.

    After that, she dropped down in class for the Group 2 Prix de Sandringham where she easily dismissed Sauterne, one of the market principles for the Prix de l’Opera, on her only start on good ground.

    This race is key as looking at her knee action for both her French 1000 Guineas fourth and this success, she seemingly likes to glide into her races rather than using a big stride like Blue Rose Cen has, suggesting today’s good ground should be preferable.

    Although she disappointed at Deauville in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild, that occurred on soft ground so excuses can be made and her effort in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin last time out was respectable.

    Back on faster ground and dropping in trip to seven furlongs, Kelina looks like a fair each-way bet at 16/1.

  • Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The Best is Yet to Come

    Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The Best is Yet to Come

    Every year, there’s a buzz around the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe that is tough to describe.

    Boil the race down and it’s a 1m4f European Group 1, the same type of race we see at the big racing festivals throughout the Flat season.

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    But the Arc is so much more than that; there’s history, nearly £4.5 million in prize money, and an international interest that attracts horses from the UK, Ireland, Germany, France, and even Japan.

    This year’s race looks wide open, and I’ll discuss my fancy in a bonus BestofBets.com column tomorrow, but as for today, there are three horses that I want to be with on Saturday from both Newmarket and Longchamp.

    With good ground expected at both tracks, let’s begin.

     

    2:25 Newmarket: Sacred Angel @ 9/2 General – 2pt Win

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    My interest in this year’s Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes took a hit yesterday when the news came out about Relief Rally’s lack of involvement due to a dirty scope.

    As much as the news was sad, my second look at the fillies-only six-furlong contest saw me land on Sacred Angel for Charlie Johnston and James Doyle.

    The Dark Angel filly has raced four times for the Middleham-based yard, winning two of them in commanding fashion from a prominent position.

    The first of these victories came on the Newmarket July Course when a dominant winner of a six-furlong maiden on good to firm ground; she beat Ornellaia (3rd) that day, a horse who won at Glorious Goodwood, finished second in a Group 2 in Deauville, and third in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes since.

    Despite the manner of her win, she rocked up to the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes in July as a 16/1-shot and blew the field apart under Jason Hart.

    On collateral form, she put four-and-a-quarter lengths between herself and Symbology who went on to finish a length-and-a-quarter behind Relief Rally in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes next time out.

    Following that victory, connections sent her against the colts in the Group 1 Morny on her first start in softer conditions; despite the slow surface, she showed great character to finish fourth behind Vandeek, Ramatuelle, and River Tiber, potentially some of the most exciting juveniles in the division.

    Today, she has a low draw to overcome which could hinder her chances, but her ability is apparent and 5/1 is a fair price for Sacred Angel in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes.

     

    3:00 Newmarket: Vandeek @ 13/8 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    If I’m a fan of Sacred Angel in the proceeding race then I can’t let Vandeek go off unmentioned in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes.

    The Simon & Ed Crisford-trained two-year-old is three from three this year, a run that includes the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville last time out.

    Of the two, his performance in the Group 1 contest impressed me the most as the ground was officially described as very soft, yet Andrea Atzeni still rode a calm race from the rear of the pack and bided his time.

    This paid off as the beautiful mover cruised into the contest behind the well-backed Ramatuelle and just did enough in time to get up on the line.

    That run completed a hat-trick of wins in softer conditions, though a look through his pedigree suggests that better ground could see him improve further.

    By Havana Grey, a sire who has seen the majority of his offspring race successfully on good or better ground, his Mukhadram half-brother, Mine’s A Double, won three times in a row on good to firm ground, so that offers hope to the idea that he can handle a quicker surface.

    In what is a competitive race that could see the likes of Task Force and Lake Forest outperform their odds, Vandeek is a worthy favourite and should be respected.

     

    4:08 Longchamp: Embesto @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    It really is a shame that Roaring Lion is no longer around to continue what should have been a long and fruitful stallion career because this year has been a standout year for his progeny.

    Running Lion, Saint George, and Valiant King have all performed to great ability over the summer without landing a Group-level race, something that Embesto has achieved.

    The Roger Varian-trained three-year-old dead-heated with Mighty Ulysses last time out in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes when showing plenty of promise; Mighty Ulysses is a hardy colt for John & Thady Gosden who finished a close fifth in the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes behind Coroebus in 2022 and even beat Alflaila, a horse who would go on to win four races in a row, by just over a length in the Listed Pomfret Stakes.

    Furthermore, Regal Reality crossed the line in third that day and has since finished a staying-on second to Mutasaabeq in the Group 2 Joel Stakes yesterday.

    On that form, he requires respect and he is one of the few in this field that prefers better ground unlike some of the market principles ahead of him.

    Admittedly, Isaac Shelby could show us all what he promised in defeat to the likes of Kinross and Paddington this season, but on the chance that he doesn’t appreciate the ground, the each-way angle of Embesto intrigues me at 6/1.