Best Of Bets

Author: Ashley Symonds

  • Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting | Weld’s Classic form is key

    Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting | Weld’s Classic form is key

    Today is a brilliant day for sport with the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting on ITV and day one of the Ryder Cup taking centre stage.

    Despite the constant flicking between the golf and racing channels throughout the day, my full attention turned to the racecards yesterday and as a result, two horses have grabbed my attention, so let’s see who they are.

     

    1:50 Newmarket – Tarawa @ 13/2 General – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    The Listed Rosemary Stakes opens today’s Newmarket action on ITV and I’m hoping Irish raider Tarawa can get her long-awaited head in front.

    Sporting the first-time cheekpieces, the Dermot Weld-trained three-year-old has been a regular runner this year thanks to her six outings since the start of May; in five runs, she ran to an RPR in excess of 104, showing her consistency in quality races.

    Tarawa is a horse that entered my tracker after her second run of the season in the Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas where she found herself tucked away under Billy Lee for the majority of the race before staying on towards the finish behind stablemate Tahiyra (a four-time Group 1 winner), Meditate, and Comhra.

    Furthermore, the supplemented Jackie Oh (now rated 107) finished two lengths behind her in fifth and Breege, the Sandringham Stakes runner-up, was even further back in seventh, so the form of the Irish 1000 Guineas looks above average.

    Her held-up style of racing came to the fore again last time out in the Group 2 Dullingham Park Stakes at Leopardstown earlier this month, a contest that saw her complete the race in fifth while powering through the line from the rear of the field.

    If her usual tactics are repeated today – something that has differed in the past, as shown by her third in the Group 2 Romanised Minstrel Stakes in July – she should have a few horses to aim at thanks to the prominent running styles of Queen For You and Quick Change.

    Tarawa looks a strong contender in the second race at Newmarket today and with Shane Lowry lighting up Rome in the Ryder Cup, hopefully, another Irish star can rise to the top on overseas soil.

     

     

    2:25 Newmarket – Novakai @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Novakai is a horse that I’ve managed to avoid backing on her last two runs which has worked out both positively and negatively.

    The first of these misses came in late July when she made a big impression in the Listed Aphrodite Fillies’ Stakes under Sam James to sprint clear by nearly five lengths; this occurred on her first start at 12 furlongs, so she seemed to relish the new trip.

    The form of this race received a boost two weeks ago as the fourth, Lmay, notably improved to finish a good third to Sumo Sam in the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster.

    On her next start, the Karl Burke-trained three-year-old received plenty of market support in the 24 hours leading up to the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks and even hit a low price of 7/1 in the morning of the contest.

    However, the market corrected itself before the off and despite her starting price of 10/1, she disappointed to finish seventh, though she began to rally in the final furlong.

    If you ignore her 11th in the Group 1 Prix de Diane earlier this year, her second to Soul Sister in the Group 3 Musidora stands out amongst the crowd and her runners-up medal in last season’s Group 1 Fillies’ Mile is also a great piece of form.

    With conditions set to suit and in receipt of weight from her elders, Voodoo Queen and Peripatetic, her price of 6/1 looks fair for the reasons stated above.

  • Ayr Gold Cup | A Scottish Storm – The Top Three

    Ayr Gold Cup | A Scottish Storm – The Top Three

    Ahead of the Ayr Gold Cup this weekend, The Top Three could be on for a potential four-in-a-row if all three selections win later today.

    This is thanks to Liberty Lane’s victory at Doncaster last week as my final selection of the St Leger Festival, a race that certainly raised my heart rate higher than I had previously expected.

    Securing a 100%-win rate from four selections isn’t easy, but I thought I’d start this week’s piece with a little bit of humorous hope.

    Away from my beckoning career as a stand-up comedian, three horses look like interesting candidates at both Ayr and Newbury today including a 14/1-shot in the opening Scottish contest.

     

    1:15 Ayr – Stormbuster @ 14/1 General – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    There’s something about three-year-olds in open grade handicaps that always catches my eye and the same goes for Stormbuster at 14/1 in the opening one-mile contest at Ayr.

    The well-bred Dubawi colt is out of Barshiba, a Group 2 Lancashire Oaks winner in 2010, making him a full-brother to the 2015 Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes victor Arabian Queen.

    So far, the Andrew Balding-trained colt hasn’t shown that genetic ability too well on the track, however, he bolted up by five lengths on his fourth start as a two-year-old and finished third to Isaac Shelby on debut; he was even sent off 7/1 for the Group 1 Vertem Futurity and ran well for a long time despite being on the wrong side of the track in attritional conditions.

    This year, just six rivals have finished behind him in four races, however, there are excuses for these performances.

    Firstly, his first two runs occurred over 10 furlongs, a distance he has yet to truly see out, and in the Listed Dee Stakes at Chester in May, he travelled well before colliding with two horses and soon stopped quickly.

    Two poor performances in quicker conditions are understandable as he has a preference towards softer ground, something connections agree with as he was a non-runner at Salisbury earlier this month for the unsuitable official going of good to firm.

    Back on a slower surface and off a lowly mark of 89, with his four-pound three-year-old allowance, today could be the day to catch him in a winnable handicap.

     

    1:30 Newbury – Nymphadora @ 10/3 with William Hill – 1pt win

    Embed from Getty Images

    The well-known colours of St Albans Bloodstock Limited make up two of the five runners in the Group 3 World Trophy Stakes at Newbury, yet it’s the longer-priced runner of the duo, Nymphadora, that I’m siding with.

    Firstly, soft ground and five furlongs are what she thrives off, as shown by her two victories this season at Chester and York; she even tried to Live In The Dream, a future Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes winner, four pounds in weight at Chester last year when second on good-to-soft ground.

    This liking towards soft ground is an unknown for her owner-mate, Sense Of Duty, who heads the market despite drifting out to 2/1 from 5/4 throughout the week.

    Due to a setback, the last time Sense Of Duty appeared on track was at Newcastle over six furlongs when an impressive winner of the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes; connections have their eyes on the Group 1 Champions Sprint Stakes in October, so this race looks like a nice preparation to get her 100% for that target.

    Sense Of Duty has yet to race over five furlongs or soft ground, and with her dam, Margaret’s Mission, a one-mile winner on good-to-firm, it would take a braver man than myself to be backing her today.

    With that in mind, both Raasel and Nymphadora are the horses that will enjoy the ground, with preference falling to the younger filly who should be fresher and receives three pounds from Michael Appleby’s six-year-old gelding.

     

    3:00 Ayr – Navassa Island @ 4/1 with William Hill – 3pt win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Readers of the Ante-post Analysis column or watchers of the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast could be sat on a nice ante-post docket for Navassa Island in the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes at 3:00 today.

    Of course, you can’t eat value, but the Michael O’Callaghan-trained two-year-old has more than halved in price to 4/1 for the £40,000 contest.

    For full reasoning behind her chances, click here for the link to Wednesday’s piece, but now we know the full field, let’s see what the pace of the race could be like.

    The likely pace angles look to be provided through Exponista (stall five), Dorothy Lawrence (stall six) and Imperiality (stall seven) while the likes of Bellarchi (stall three) and Raqiya (stall two) have made all with success in the past.

    That is plenty of pace in a nine-runner juvenile field, something that should benefit Navassa Island as her second to Porta Fortuna on debut came from an off-the-pace ride.

    Hopefully, I have done my calculations correctly because if I have, Navassa Island looks like an exciting prospect in the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde.

  • Ayr Gold Cup | In Rohaan We Trust – Ante-post Analysis

    Ayr Gold Cup | In Rohaan We Trust – Ante-post Analysis

    Following a break last week due to the Doncaster St Leger meeting, today sees a return for the Ante-post Analysis column ahead of the Ayr Gold Cup this weekend. 

    Two horses are on my agenda ahead of tomorrow’s declarations for the Scottish track, so let’s dive in. 

     

    Island could be in paradise 

    Embed from Getty Images

    In 2011, the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde went the way of Roger Sez for Tim Easterby and 12 years on, her filly by Territories, Navassa Island, will be hoping to emulate her dam. 

    The Michael O’Callaghan-trained two-year-old caught the eye on debut in May when second in the Group 3 Fillies Sprint Stakes at Naas. 

    She finished just a neck behind Porta Fortuna that day despite experiencing a tough route through the race; the winner has since won the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot before a runners-up medal in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and a good third in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes. 

    Fast forward two months and Navassa Island stepped up in trip to an extended seven furlongs at the Curragh where she ran well but seemingly didn’t see out the distance. 

    Connections agreed with this view as they brought her back to six furlongs last month and was a comfortable winner at the Curragh; the second, She’s Quality, bolted up on her next start at Sandown and the third, Letsbefranksboutit, succeeded in the Group 3 Round Table Stakes 13 days later.

    A look through her pedigree suggests that soft ground could be fine, though this is an unknown, and at 10/1, I’m hopeful of a big run from Navassa Island. 

     

    Group horse in a handicap 

    Embed from Getty Images

    This Flat season, high-rated horses have dropped into handicaps with a decent weight on their back to good effect; Ancient Rome at Glorious Goodwood and Equilateral at York instantly spring to mind.

    Although Rohaan has a slightly different profile to both mentioned examples, he still holds a good chance in Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup at 14/1. 

    Firstly, the David Evans-trained five-year-old is four pounds wrong at the weights off a mark of 104 as the handicapper has dropped his mark since the entry stage thanks to two disappointing efforts.

    Despite this, with the rain set to hit the South Ayrshire track ahead of their premier Flat race of the year, he still holds good merit towards the top of weights.

    Once rated 116, the Mayson gelding last visited the winners’ enclosure in October when a comfortable winner of the Group 3 Bengough Stakes on good-to-soft ground.

    Before that, he was a surprise victor of the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes on heavy and also won his first Wokingham Stakes off a mark of 112 on soft in 2021.

    Although Rohaan’s form this season leaves a bit to desired, he bounced back to his best having raced poorly ahead of last year’s Wokingham Stakes victory, so there is precedent for him to improve considerably.

    At 14/1, he is a classy animal and could easily be the best horse on Saturday.

  • St Leger Festival | A Hurricane is brewing – The Top Three

    St Leger Festival | A Hurricane is brewing – The Top Three

    Yesterday’s day two at the St Leger Festival didn’t go the way I had mapped out in my head.

    Wonderwall’s disappointing effort at Chester when sent off the well-backed favourite eclipsed my feelings throughout the day of much hope and yet no success.

    Today seems like a tough day at Doncaster, yet three horses stand out to me in some of the big contests of the day.

    Let’s pray for some Saturday luck to fall my way.

     

    2:25 Doncaster – Hurricane Ivor @ 20/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    There’s something brave about putting up a horse in a 22-runner sprint handicap that I can’t quite describe and after hours of looking and relooking at this race, I considered leaving this contest and moving on.

    However, seeing Hurricane Ivor at 20/1 tempted me, especially with the season that he has had for his new yard in Ireland.

    The Jessica Harrington-trained six-year-old was a regular runner in the UK between the start of 2021 and the end of 2022 for William Haggas, landing a memorable success in the 2021 renewal of the Portland Handicap off an official rating of 102, 10 pounds higher than his current mark.

    After that run, the Ivawood gelding won the Group 3 World Trophy Stakes in what turned out to be his last hurrah for Somerville Lodge.

    His poor form in 2022 saw connections switch the experienced sprinter to Harrington’s base ahead of the 2023 season, something that sparked improvement when fifth in the Listed Woodlands Stakes on soft-to-heavy in April behind Moss Tucker, a Group 1 Flying Five Stakes winner since.

    Another promising run in the Habitat Handicap at the Curragh and four slightly below-par runs since have resulted in the handicapper dropping him 11 pounds since June, a staggering fall through the weights.

    Admittedly, some may say that the former 110-rated animal is regressing, but excuses can be made for all four of his recent defeats, notably due to ground, the wrong trip, and a change in tactics that didn’t work.

    The Harrington stable tends not to waste too many darts when sending one over the water to the UK and with Hurricane Ivor, they have a proven horse in these conditions.

     

    3:35 Doncaster – Arrest @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    This year’s St Leger has turned me inside out trying to work out which one to side with, and after much deliberation, Arrest is the one who comes out top of my list to land the final Classic of the year.

    Immediately following his Group 3 Geoffrey Freer victory at Newbury, his claims for Doncaster’s feature event of the year were slightly murky based on the form of the race.

    At the time, beating Ching Shih by just over a length while in receipt of three pounds from the runner-up didn’t look amazing and after David Simcock’s four-year-old finished a well-beaten fourth earlier this week in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes, further questions about that race started to grow.

    However, a second look shows that Oisin Murphy positioned Ching Shih in plumb last and benefitted from a small pace collapse while the horses that raced prominently along with Arrest from the front – Jack Darcy, Klondike, and Kemari – finished in the final three.

    Furthermore, Jack Darcy has since comfortably won the Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville while employing similar tactics and Shandoz, who was seven lengths behind Arrest in the Geoffrey Freer, ran to an RPR of 110 on his next start when fifth behind Bay Bridge in the Group 3 September Stakes.

    Let us not forget that he put six lengths between him and Adelaide River, an Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris runner-up, in the Group 3 Chester Vase while also taking a wider route around the tight track.

    Today, John & Thady Gosden’s Frankel colt will race with his preferred softer ground under his hooves and with Frankie Dettori in the saddle, Arrest looks like a tailormade Leger horse.

     

    5:20 Doncaster – Liberty Lane @ 13/2 General – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    The finale of the St Leger Festival, like the rest of the day, is a competitive contest on paper and despite the enticing profiles of Sonny Liston, Brunch, and Blue for You, my vote falls onto the head of Liberty Lane, one of four three-year-olds in the race.

    Although this seems like a long time ago, the three-year-old by Teofilo was a well-backed favourite for one of the concluding handicaps on Stewards’ Cup day at Glorious Goodwood before racing was called off.

    The persistent rain that day scuppered Karl Burke’s plan for a big handicap prize, however, with some juice in the ground this week, connections have set their sights on today’s ÂŁ50,000 contest.

    Although the unexposed colt has yet to find the winners’ enclosure since his debut on soft at Nottingham, he was unlucky to run into Waipiro on his next start before an admiral run on slightly unsuitable ground in the Group 2 Dante Stakes.

    Although he was disappointing on good-to-firm ground at Royal Ascot, his performance at Newmarket over a mile on rain-softened ground was more like the real Liberty Lane.

    With his high knee action, today’s tacky surface should suit well and off a mark of 97 – alongside a four-pound weight-for-age allowance – Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum’s homebred colt is a serious player in the final race of the meeting.

  • St Leger Festival | You’re my Wonderwall – The Top Three

    St Leger Festival | You’re my Wonderwall – The Top Three

    It’s day two of the 2023 St Leger Festival and having kept my powder dry yesterday, three horses are firmly on my agenda to finish off the working week in good style.

    Hopefully, this year’s three-day event at Doncaster can prove to be as equally profitable as the York Ebor festival because if this is the case, we should have no problems.

    So, here are the three horses to consider today.

     

    1:50 Doncaster – War Rooms @ 2/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    I’m starting the St Leger Festival with a confident play as there’s no getting away from War Rooms at 2/1 in the Listed Flying Childers Stakes.

    Trained by Owen Burrows, an operation that doesn’t waste many bullets at these big festivals, this Churchill colt is one of two once-raced two-year-olds in the contest having shown a great turn of foot over course and distance on soft ground in late July.

    What was striking from this victory was how he was able to pull nearly five lengths clear of the second within the final furlong-and-a-half in the conditions.

    Furthermore, although his sire Churchill was a ground versatile horse, the American-bred side of his pedigree initially suggests that quicker ground would be more to his liking, especially with a damsire of Aptitude.

    However, his three winning siblings – Herring Island, Rhinestone, and Aduna – all have great soft ground form; Rhinestone was even a valiant runner-up on soft in the 2018 Grade 2 Future Stars Bumper at Leopardstown.

    War Rooms’ breeding suggests that he could stay further in time, so today’s seven furlongs on rain-softened ground should be right up his street, making him a good play in the second race at Doncaster.

     

    3:20 Chester – Wonderwall @ 6/4 General – 3pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Over at Chester, a horse that will be popular with Oasis fans is Wonderwall at the head of the market for the two-mile handicap.

    The multi-purpose gelding by Yeats has been a regular in the national hunt scene for the last few years, notably when successful over the now 142-rated City Chief by three lengths in a maiden hurdle at Doncaster before his fall at the last hurdle in the 2022 Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle when looking like a winner.

    Connections gave him a 288-day lay-off from the track until the Grade 2 Coral Racing Club Novices’ Chase at Newbury in late 2022 where he travelled extremely well into the race before fading on a quick ground.

    So, in the jumps code, he is a very classy horse. Even when racing in bumpers as a four and five-year-old, he won on debut at Ascot on soft, finished third to Knappers Hill on soft in a Listed bumper at the same course and then ran a good race to finish seventh behind the likes of Sir Gerhard, Kilcruit, Three Stripe Life and Grangee in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper.

    Since switching to the Flat, all three of his runs since the start of July have been over an inadequate trip of 12 furlongs, so this hike in distance to two miles should see him to best effect.

    Wonderwall holds a Cesarewitch entry for later this year and is currently 33/1 for that, so if today goes well, connections could be packing their bags for a trip to Newmarket in October.

     

    3:35 Doncaster – Quantum Leap @ 6.1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Finally, the concluding race on ITV from Doncaster today is the ÂŁ60,000 Mallard Handicap, a contest that should set up nicely for the slow-starting Quantum Leap under Callum Rodriguez.

    The four-year-old by New Approach must be a frustrating horse for trainer Edward Bethell – who is running at a 43% strike rate and recently won the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock – as in all four of his appearances on track, he has failed to break from the stalls with any intent.

    Despite this, the 19,000gns purchase has been successful in 50% of his races to date, most recently at Haydock on good-to-soft ground when making up a plethora of lengths to win comfortably.

    The handicapper slapped an extra five pounds onto his official rating after the run, so there seems to be plenty of wiggle room left off 87, especially when you consider that he beat Aztec Empire on debut who is now rated 93 and has good form with Sweet William.

    In what looks to be a winnable race, not many of his competitors look well-handicapped on their current mark, yet Quantum Leap does and should be feared for the in-form Bethell operation.

  • Irish Champions Weekend: Take on Ballydoyle – The Top Three

    Irish Champions Weekend: Take on Ballydoyle – The Top Three

    Irish Champions Weekend has already been one to remember, not just because of the horses, but purely thanks to Jerry Hannon’s commentary for the Group 1 Irish Champions Stakes.

    All jokes aside, yesterday was an enjoyable watch from post to pillar and for The Top Three readers, we were a head away from landing an 8/1 winner in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes.

    Alas, it wasn’t to be and with Gallant Lion’s slight disappointment at Ascot alongside Urban Sprawl’s tame effort in the last at Leopardstown, we are searching for a winner today.

    So, with some brilliant races ahead of us, let’s begin.

     

    2:25 Curragh – Insinuendo @ 10/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    The first Group race of the day is the Blandford Stakes and back for another bite at the cherry is Insinuendo having run into Above The Curve – a future four-time Group 1-placed mare for Aidan O’Brien – in last year’s renewal.

    Embed from Getty Images

    The six-year-old by Gleneagles has been the stable star for Willie McCreery for several years and over the last 12 months, she has taken connections to Champions Day at Ascot and as well as the Bahrain International Trophy.

    Despite her age in a contest that includes eight three-year-olds, meaning she will give away six pounds to them, she is the one with the best form in the book.

    Firstly, she gave five pounds away to Luxembourg – a future Group 1 Irish Champions Stakes winner – in last year’s Group 3 Royal Whip when only beaten by a neck.

    Two months later, she rocked up at 80/1 in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes and put in a remarkable effort on a slightly unfavourable good-to-soft surface to finish third to Emily Upjohn.

    Following an average run in the Bahrain International Trophy, she began this season with a comfortable success over a mile on soft-to-heavy ground at the Curragh; considering her best form is over 10 furlongs on good ground, this run can be marked up.

    With two victories at the course and some good efforts in defeat over course and distance, Insinuendo looks to be a cracking each-way bet in the Blandford Stakes and thanks to her two-month break from the track, she should be fresh and ready to go.

     

    3:25 Curragh – Porta Fortuna @ 13/2 General – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    This year’s Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes is a fascinating contest with nine runners set to head under the starter’s orders.

    As with juvenile races at this time of the year, plenty in here could unleash potential ability that they have yet to fully show, however, without knowing what will happen for sure, Porta Fortuna is the solid option at 15/2.

    Trained by Donnacha O’Brien, she has the unenviable task of taking on his dad’s Ylang Ylang at the head of the market as well as Willie McCreery’s Vespertillo who was second to today’s even-money favourite before her success in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes last month.

    That being said, Porta Fortuna is definitely the form horse of the contest thanks to her second to Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes last time out, a performance that can be marked up as she raced predominantly on the near side which was slightly unfavourable throughout the day.

    Prior to that run, she was sent off a well-backed 5/1 for the Group 3 Albany Stakes and won impressively under Frankie Dettori – who will get the leg up today – and the form of that race has been boosted thanks to Matrika’s Group 2 win on her next start.

    Furthermore, out of the Holy Roman Emperor mare Too Precious, a winner over 1m4f, today’s seven-furlong trip looks a step in the right direction and even though her sire is the brilliant sprinter Caravaggio, he has had more runners and winners between seven and nine furlongs than in the sprinting distances since his first crop hit the track in 2021.

    Of course, the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes looks like a tough race to win, but the form horse is Porta Fortuna and she is a big price at 13/2.

     

    4:00 Curragh – Bucanero Fuerte @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    The Group 1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes is my race of the weekend based on pure excitement levels as the potential clash of City Of Troy, Bucanero Fuerte, and Henry Longfellow is mouthwatering.

    Although the Aidan O’Brien-trained first-string is a well-fancied favourite, I’m willing to go against the Ballydoyle pair with Bucanero Fuerte.

    Although City Of Troy’s performance to beat Haatem by six lengths in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes was visually impressive, I think that the form of the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes victory is better and Adrian Murray’s Wootton Bassett colt he made all on his side of the track – despite the attempted implementation of a pacemaker with stablemate Launch – was no small feat.

    Luckily for connections, owner and stablemate Cuban Thunder is next to Bucanero Fuerte in stall four today, so he will have an easy lead into the contest.

    So on form, he has a good chance, but what about his step up to seven furlongs?

    A glance at his pedigree shows that his full-brother Wooded started life as a seven-furlong horse and was successful on his second start at the trip, finished fourth to Pinatubo in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat, and then won the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye over five furlongs on his final career start.

    His other half-brother, Beat Le Bon, won the 2019 edition of the valuable Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood and has since placed over two miles in America over hurdles, so his pedigree would suggest today’s trip should be no problem.

    At 4/1 against a 4/7 favourite, he looks like a good price for his quality and hopefully, he can produce a stunning performance at the Curragh.

  • Irish Champions Weekend: Appropriately named Lion – The Top Three

    Irish Champions Weekend: Appropriately named Lion – The Top Three

    d he looked Is anyone else eager with excitement for Irish Champions Weekend?

    Across both the UK and Ireland, there are 14 Group-level contests across three tracks, seven of which are Group 1s as well as competitive handicaps like the Old Borough Cup at Haydock, Lavassa Stakes at Ascot, and the Pentingo at Leopardstown.

    That is an insane quantity of quality that horse racing fans should be licking their lips for.

    With that in mind – though definitely without the same worldwide level of anticipation – I have three horses to consider for Saturday with a bonus column for Sunday’s action potentially in the works.

    So, let’s not delay anymore and get onto the matter at hand.

     

    3:10 Ascot – Gallant Lion @ 5/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    As any follower of me on social media knows, I am a sucker for Tony Carroll-trained horses.

    Whether they are walking around the parade ring ahead of a 0-50 Classified Stakes at Brighton or competing in a competitive handicap around Wolverhampton, at least one of my eyes is always on them.

    Thankfully, this season has been an enjoyable one for the Mill House Racing faithful and it could get even better on Saturday if Gallant Lion obliges in the Lavazza Stakes at Ascot.

    The three-year-old by the late Roaring Lion has been in the tracker ever since my interview with Tony in April where the experienced trainer gave a nice – though not gushing – word for him ahead of his three-year-old campaign.

    “We bought him at the Horses In Training sales and he is a nice, sound horse who was gelded by his previous trainer, Mr Bell.”

    Maybe the Brighton specialist was keeping his cards close to his chest because the beautiful grey has won four races in a row at four different tracks under four different jockeys on three varying ground conditions, most recently at Windsor in the Racing League.

    The handicapper rewarded connections with just three pounds for his neck victory over The Whipmaster, a potentially lenient view as he had to do the hard work from the front and was a gutsy winner.

    Although a drop of rain could potentially benefit his chances, the gelding has won on good-to-firm twice and a look at his pedigree (Roaring Lion out of a Lando mare) wouldn’t immediately suggest that soft ground is a necessity.

    My whole heart will be wishing Gallant Lion home at Ascot tomorrow and with good reason as the 5-1-shot has a good chance to make it five from five.

     

    3:25 Kempton – Seven Questions @ 8/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Away from Ascot and over on the all-weather, the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes is a race that, although not always, can produce a decent horse.

    Mischief Magic was successful 12 months ago on his Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint success, so there is some decent heritage to this six-furlong event.

    Although this year’s renewal doesn’t look vintage on first viewing, the race could set up for Seven Questions under Callum Shepherd.

    The Kodiac two-year-old has been a busy gelding this season thanks to six track appearances and three victories for George Scott.

    In all three of his wins, the ÂŁ58,000 purchase was impressive on the eye over both five and six furlongs on alternating ground conditions.

    As the age-old stereotype goes, good horses win on any ground and the experienced juvenile is a lovely galloper when there is open air to do so.

    However, he was unable to show this trait last time out at Ripon in the Listed Two Yrs Old Trophy Stakes when third behind the well-fancied Task Force.

    Although he broke nicely from stall five, he was quickly shoved into a pocked between horses and it wasn’t until the one-furlong pole flew past that Darragh Keenan could begin to get serious, but his attempt at a race-winning move was too late and he settled for a bronze medal.

    In isolation, that race can be marked up as the winner is a regally bred Frankel colt who I personally rate highly and the horses around him – notably Shagraan, Bombay Bazar, and Asdana – had all shown good qualities heading into the race.

    Last year, the first four home were all drawn in stall eight or higher, so out of trap number nine, Seven Questions is the play in the Sirenia Stakes.

     

    5:40 Leopardstown – Urban Sprawl @ 12/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    This couldn’t be an Irish Champions Weekend article without putting up one horse from Leopardstown on Saturday, and although this horse isn’t in one of the feature races, Urban Sprawl at 14/1 is who I’m with.

    Similar to my quoting of ‘good horses go in any ground’, I’ve gone to the racing phrasebook again and pulled out the classic line of ‘back (insert name) blind at (insert track)’.

    Although this usually applies to Tony Carroll at Brighton, I’ve adapted this version to say: ‘Back the Johnstons blind at Leopardstown.’

    This is for good reason as the Johnstons – both when the license was under Mark’s name and then with Mark & Charlie – operate at a 29% strike rate and +ÂŁ17.08 profit (to a ÂŁ1 level stake) at Leopardstown from 36 runners.

    That course form is an interesting statistic and tomorrow, Urban Sprawl will be the first runner under just Charlie Johnston’s name to hit the track and he looks well-handicapped off 90.

    The highly-tried chestnut colt was victorious at Goodwood in May when too good for the likes of Tafreej, Dark Thirty, Classic, and Saturnalia, four horses who have won since.

    Urban Sprawl then went to Royal Ascot and finished third in a hot renewal of the Britannia Stakes behind the winner Docklands and runner-up New Endeavour who has franked the form with his second in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury next time out.

    Three runs since over seven furlongs, two of which in softer conditions, haven’t seen him at his best, though his last outing at Goodwood when behind the well-handicapped Rhoscolyn was full of promise.

    Back to a mile and on better ground, Urban Sprawl should benefit from a six-pound three-year-old allowance and looks to have a good chance on Irish soil.

  • Sandown Racecourse Tips – Mile Back To a Mile – The Top Three

    Sandown Racecourse Tips – Mile Back To a Mile – The Top Three

    Following the immense highs of York’s Ebor meeting, Beverley and Sandown Racecourse are under the ITV spotlight this weekend for a fair day of action.

    But first, a look at how The Top Three is sitting heading into September.

    Overall, there have been 74 selections in the series since May 13th. Until the start of Royal Ascot on June 20th, the series was in profit by 28.65 points, however, after no winners through the entire week and a rough run until Glorious Goodwood, the P&L dropped into the negatives.

    Despite this, a profit of 17.45 points at the Ebor Festival means that The Top Three, after nearly four months, is in profit by 3.585 points.

    That isn’t an impressive number, but profit is profit and hopefully, this form can continue heading into the next few weeks.

    So, with that in mind, here are today’s three fancies.

     

    1:50 Sandown – Indemnify @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    The first bet from Sandown Racecourse comes in the opening seven-furlong handicap and having seen plenty of money all week, today could be the day for Indemnify to return to the winners’ enclosure at 10/3.

    The four-year-old grey by Lope De Vega has raced four times this season, though his only victory of the year occurred with previous trainer Roger Varian at Sandown over a furlong further than today’s trip.

    The gelding has raced once over seven furlongs during his career when second on the all-weather at Newcastle in a novice event beaten narrowly by Baltimore Boy.

    Since then, connections opted to run him over longer distances and recently, when racing over a mile on his last three starts, jockey Kieran O’Neill has consistently dropped him out towards the rear of the field, notably when fifth to the well-handicapped Perotto on stable debut for Alice Haynes in the Coral Challenge Handicap at Sandown.

    These tactics act as a contrast to his three-year-old season where his best performances came from prominent positions.

    Potentially, you could see a reversal in racing position today to send him into a more prominent position from the start in order to use his useful stamina trait.

    Off a competitive mark of 91, Indemnify ran an eye-catching race at Sandown – a course he is very familiar with – 13 days ago and if he can take advantage of a potential lack of pace in the contest, he could be the one to side with.

     

    2:25 Sandown – Midnight Mile @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    As discussed on Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis, despite the main play of Astral Beau at the prices, Midnight Mile was also on my agenda for the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes and with her still remaining in the race, she gets the nod at 13/2.

    Having been with her last time out at Haydock when third to Al Aasy in the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes, she performed well under Oisin Orr for the majority of the contest before failing to see out the full 10 furlongs.

    In running, her last outing was a tricky contest as she sat more prominently than her York victory two starts ago and hit the front with two furlongs to go, so all Orr could do was press the button and see if she could withstand 400 metres at top speed.

    Unfortunately, she didn’t and was passed by Al Aasy and El Drama, but against the more experienced horses, she still ran a great race.

    Back at a mile today on rain-softened ground, she could get a nice tow into the race from Mysterious Love and Nibras Angel if connections revert to tactics and sit her in midfield.

    If returning to her best, she could be a dangerous proposition in receipt of five pounds from her elders, so with that in mind, I’ll be siding with Midnight Mile.

     

    2:40 Beverley – Silky Wilkie @ 5/2 General – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    The Beverley Bullet includes a field of just seven runners this year and unfortunately for readers of Wednesday’s Ante-Post Analysis, Rage Of Bamby is not one of them.

    I can only apologise for her absence, but as a replacement, Silky Wilkie looks like a good replacement to be with at 5/2.

    The four-year-old by Mehmas has had an action-packed – but largely successful – campaign for Karl Burke and owners Middleham Park Racing having raced without a break since November 2022.

    Although there would be a small worry about him being on the go for so long, the ÂŁ17,500 purchase has only finished outside of the first four on three occasions in 14 runs.

    This streak of consecutive runs includes a second to Annaf at Lingfield in January, a short-head second in the Epsom Dash, and a second in the Listed City Walls Stakes at York in July, all of which is good form.

    Silky Wilkie returned to the track after a 27-day break on Thursday for a Racing League handicap over five furlongs, a race in which he ran promisingly to finish fourth when not asked too many questions.

    His task in handicap company off a mark of 108 was tough two days ago, so today’s Listed Beverley Bullet should be more to his liking and hopefully, the hardy four-year-old can show them a clean pair of heels.

  • Ante-post Analysis: Rage Could Be a Machine

    Ante-post Analysis: Rage Could Be a Machine

    Although we may complain about the quality and quantity of racing from time to time, you’d find it hard to crab what was an impeccable week of racing at the York Ebor Festival.

    From Relief Rally to Warm Heart, Absurde to Mostahdaf, the four-day event on the Knavesmire truly delivered competitive action and great results.

    Yes, this week may not be vintage, but Saturdays like this are still decent betting products and they make the big weeks of Flat racing even better.

    So, with that in mind, here are my ante-post plays for this coming weekend.

     

    Bamby to Beverley

    Embed from Getty Images

    The Listed Beverley Bullet is one of the feature races of the weekend worth ÂŁ25,000 to the winner.

    Many of the 11 entries deserve respect – including York handicap winner Equilateral and last year’s victor Tis Marvellous – but it’s Rage Of Bamby at a general price of 14/1 that has grabbed my attention.

    Eve Johnson-Houghton’s daughter of Wootton Bassett is one of the few unexposed types at the distance as she finished a good second last time out in a fillies handicap win by Designer at York on her first start at five furlongs.

    She sat in midfield for the majority of the contest before Charlie Bishop sent her to win the race up the far side rail, and although she hit the front with over a furlong to go, her well-handicapped rival collared her on the line.

    The run was a bit surprising as for the majority of her career, she has been campaigned over longer trips, notably when second to Commissioning, a future Group 1 Fillies’ Mile winner, in the seven-furlong Group 2 Rockfel Stakes.

    If you watch back that run and stop the replay two furlongs from home, she looks like the obvious winner, however, she didn’t quite see out the trip, so this season’s drop in distance has been beneficial.

    Although her pedigree wouldn’t scream that five furlongs is her optimum trip, her damsire is Sakhee’s Secret who was a classy sprinter on his day, so there are glimmers to suggest the testing five-furlong course at Beverley could suit.

    With the added bonus of a five-pound three-year-old fillies’ allowance against the older colts and geldings, she is officially the best at the weights and if she can reproduce her York run, she has a good chance to return back to the winners’ enclosure.

     

    Beau on weather watch

    Embed from Getty Images

    It’s always difficult to know what the ground will be like days away from a raceday, however, a quick scan of the forecast predicts a washout day at Sandown on Thursday with potential spells of rain on Friday.

    This rain-softened surface could play into the hands of Astral Beau in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes, a general 9/1-shot.

    Fresh from a 50-day break, the four-year-old by Brazen Beau has improved from winning a handicap off a mark of 81 as a three-year-old to performing in top-class Group-level races.

    If conditions do take a turn for the worst, her Listed Doncaster Mile Stakes victory at the start of the season puts her in a good place to handle it, yet if for any reason Sandown misses the incoming rain – which shouldn’t happen – then her third in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes on good-to-firm ground behind the Group 1-winning Prosperous Voyage also reads well.

    As for her other two starts this season, she‘a been unlucky to run into several fillies who are at the top of the division.

    Firstly, she finished third to Via Sistina in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes, a horse who has won the Group 1 Irish Oaks since, with Al Husn, a subsequent Group 1 Nassau Stakes winner, less than a length ahead of her in second.

    Fast-forward to her last start in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes, she was a good fourth behind the progressive Isaac Shelby (2nd) and Nashwa (1st).

    Nashwa has since finished second to Mostahdaf in the Group 1 Juddmonte International on her latest outing, franking the form of that race.

    Dropped in class for this weekend at the stiff one-mile Sandown course, Astral Beau looks a fair price at 9/1.

     

    Can’t leave Midnight Mile

    Embed from Getty Images

    Despite the strong case made for Astral Beau, I think Midnight Mile at 6/1 could be a dangerous rival for the Richard Fahey team.

    She performed with admiration in the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes over an extended 10.5 furlongs at Haydock last time out where she probably hit the front too soon and was soon overtaken by El Drama and Al Aasy, two good horses.

    Before that, the way she swept past her rivals in the Listed Lyric Stakes in July was impressive and she has good form behind Oaks winner Soul Sister from this season’s Musidora.

    Returning to a stiff mile on soft ground should see the best out of her, so if you don’t mind backing two horses at each-way prices, both Midnight Mile and Astral Beau deserve respect.

  • York Ebor Festival – Day 4 Bets – The Top Three

    York Ebor Festival – Day 4 Bets – The Top Three

    The last three days at the York Ebor Festival have all been successful, with The Top Three in profit by 19.45 points since Wednesday.

    Yesterday, despite the chance given to Aesop’s Fables turning into a fruitless venture, Silver Sword made it all back with a brilliant victory in the finale.

    Looking to make it four from four this week, here are my York Ebor Festival day four fancies.

     

    Group 2 City Of York Stakes (3:00 York) – Mutasaabeq @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    The opening fancy on the final day of the York Ebor meeting comes from the lucrative Group 2 City Of York Stakes worth ÂŁ500,000.

    Although there are plenty in here who have the correct profiles to win a race like this, Mutasaabeq has been a long-term plan of mine for this race.

    As explained in the ante-post analysis piece last week where I put the five-year-old entire by Invincible Spirit up, to my eye, he is the best horse in the race.

    Firstly, his record at seven furlongs reads four victories from five outings on a range of ground varying from heavy to good.

    He also looked in the best form of his life on his seasonal reappearance in May when defeating Native Trail by three lengths with Light Infantry, a horse who placed in Group 1s on his next three runs, back in third.

    Just 15 days later, Charlie Hills sent him to the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury when he was sent off the 4/1 third-favourite, and in the circumstances, he ran a great race to finish fifth despite the quick turnaround and being on the wrong side of the track.

    If you can ignore his last race when front-running tactics did not occur in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, a 67-day break should have him at his best and at 8/1, Mustasaabeq looks like the one to be with in the City Of York.

    Constantine Handicap (4:10 York) – Orazio @ 9/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Throughout the last two Flat festivals, Orazio has been the NAP on both occasions and despite failing to win both times, I’m keeping the faith today.

    The four-year-old colt by Caravaggio was a big disappointment in the Stewards’ Cup last time out due to the heavy conditions 21 days ago.

    Similarly, when sent off the 7/2 favourite for the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot in June, things didn’t go right for him and once jockey William Buick knew he wasn’t going to win, he eased off before the line.

    Despite these disappointments, I keep thinking back to his two victories at the start of this season, notably his success at Ascot in May (on soft ground) where he made a mockery of his rivals.

    Now that the handicapper has relented to drop him a pound for the last day, I still have the belief that Orazio is a top-class horse in a handicap, so hopefully, he can show me that today.

     

    Listed Roses Stakes (4:45 York) – Baheer @ 11/4 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Forgiveness is a wonderful thing in our game and I don’t have to swallow my feelings too deeply to give Baheer another chance at 11/4 in the penultimate race.

    The Mehmas two-year-old was a fairly confident fancy on my BestofBets.com column for Glorious Goodwood in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes when a disappointing fourth, however, there are reasons behind this performance.

    The main excuse is the ground which rapidly deteriorated throughout the day, so by the time the Molecomb was ready to go, the official going description was soft.

    Despite this, the Richard Hannon-trained two-year-old travelled like the winner for the majority of the contest before the deeper surface caught him out.

    It’s no secret how highly Richard Hannon rates his 100,000GNS purchase in the yard, in fact, despite having the extremely promising Rosallion at Herridge Racing Stables, Baheer has been the talking horse of the season.

    Hopefully, he can build on that Goodwood run and return to the winners’ enclosure.