York Ebor Festival – Day 4 Bets – The Top Three

Newbury Lockinge Day

The last three days at the York Ebor Festival have all been successful, with The Top Three in profit by 19.45 points since Wednesday.

Yesterday, despite the chance given to Aesop’s Fables turning into a fruitless venture, Silver Sword made it all back with a brilliant victory in the finale.

Looking to make it four from four this week, here are my York Ebor Festival day four fancies.

 

Group 2 City Of York Stakes (3:00 York) – Mutasaabeq @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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The opening fancy on the final day of the York Ebor meeting comes from the lucrative Group 2 City Of York Stakes worth £500,000.

Although there are plenty in here who have the correct profiles to win a race like this, Mutasaabeq has been a long-term plan of mine for this race.

As explained in the ante-post analysis piece last week where I put the five-year-old entire by Invincible Spirit up, to my eye, he is the best horse in the race.

Firstly, his record at seven furlongs reads four victories from five outings on a range of ground varying from heavy to good.

He also looked in the best form of his life on his seasonal reappearance in May when defeating Native Trail by three lengths with Light Infantry, a horse who placed in Group 1s on his next three runs, back in third.

Just 15 days later, Charlie Hills sent him to the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury when he was sent off the 4/1 third-favourite, and in the circumstances, he ran a great race to finish fifth despite the quick turnaround and being on the wrong side of the track.

If you can ignore his last race when front-running tactics did not occur in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, a 67-day break should have him at his best and at 8/1, Mustasaabeq looks like the one to be with in the City Of York.

Constantine Handicap (4:10 York) – Orazio @ 9/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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Throughout the last two Flat festivals, Orazio has been the NAP on both occasions and despite failing to win both times, I’m keeping the faith today.

The four-year-old colt by Caravaggio was a big disappointment in the Stewards’ Cup last time out due to the heavy conditions 21 days ago.

Similarly, when sent off the 7/2 favourite for the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot in June, things didn’t go right for him and once jockey William Buick knew he wasn’t going to win, he eased off before the line.

Despite these disappointments, I keep thinking back to his two victories at the start of this season, notably his success at Ascot in May (on soft ground) where he made a mockery of his rivals.

Now that the handicapper has relented to drop him a pound for the last day, I still have the belief that Orazio is a top-class horse in a handicap, so hopefully, he can show me that today.

 

Listed Roses Stakes (4:45 York) – Baheer @ 11/4 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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Forgiveness is a wonderful thing in our game and I don’t have to swallow my feelings too deeply to give Baheer another chance at 11/4 in the penultimate race.

The Mehmas two-year-old was a fairly confident fancy on my BestofBets.com column for Glorious Goodwood in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes when a disappointing fourth, however, there are reasons behind this performance.

The main excuse is the ground which rapidly deteriorated throughout the day, so by the time the Molecomb was ready to go, the official going description was soft.

Despite this, the Richard Hannon-trained two-year-old travelled like the winner for the majority of the contest before the deeper surface caught him out.

It’s no secret how highly Richard Hannon rates his 100,000GNS purchase in the yard, in fact, despite having the extremely promising Rosallion at Herridge Racing Stables, Baheer has been the talking horse of the season.

Hopefully, he can build on that Goodwood run and return to the winners’ enclosure.

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