Best Of Bets

Author: Ashley Symonds

  • Ayr Gold Cup Day | The Highest of Heights

    Ayr Gold Cup Day | The Highest of Heights

    Just one day after City Of Troy came to Southwell Racecourse, British racing fans turn their eyes further north to Scotland for Ayr Gold Cup Day.

    The column had one good day last week for the St Leger meeting, but Sunday’s bets didn’t produce anywhere near what I had hoped.

    It was a bad day, so many apologies, but there’s hope for some better results today.

     

    1:30 Newbury – Relief Rally @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    My William Haggas bunting and scarves will be out in full flow today (see later), but I’m starting my fandom for the yard with Relief Rally in the Newbury opener.

    Today is her first run for 126 days, which is a worry, but she ran with credit over too far on her seasonal reappearance as well as winning on debut as a two-year-old, so there’s scope to suggest she’s ready for today.

    Speaking of that seasonal reappearance in the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Stakes, the contest produced the 1000 Guineas winner Elmalka, so it was a fine effort.

    On her next start, take Elite Status out of the picture and Relief Rally wins like a good horse, but it just so happened that a Group 1 horse (who went on to win the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes) finished ahead of her.

    Adaay In Devon, the third, won a Listed race on her next start and placed behind the subsequent Group 1 Sprint Cup fifth Flora Of Bermuda in the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York.

    She’s a horse I’ve always liked, and today looks like a good chance to get her first win in over a year.

     

    1:50 Ayr – Caviar Heights @ 9/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum and the Doonside Cup have gone hand-in-hand over the last four years. His record is two winners and two thirds, two of which went off favourite and one (Royal Champion, 2022) won at 9/4.

    That’s a good omen for Caviar Heights who looks to have the ability to bounce back to his best.

    His best run to date is his four-length success in the Listed Newmarket Stakes in May when he beat Sayedaty Sadaty, a horse who went on to finish fifth in the Epsom Derby and third in the Gordon Stakes.

    The Gordon Stakes looks like good form as the winner, Jan Brueghel, won the St Leger on his latest start and the second, Bellum Justum, won the Grade 3 Nashville Derby Stakes next time out.

    Bringing it back to the Newmarket Stakes, the performance was visually pleasing and the look across from Clifford Lee to the hard-working Oisin Murphy three furlongs from home lives rent-free inside my head.

    His three subsequent runs give cause for concern, but he was too keen for his own good on his last two starts, so I can excuse him for the efforts.

    Although he has a three-pound penalty to shoulder, he gets weight from his elders, and I believe he has a good engine underneath the bonnet.

     

    2:40 Newbury – Whip Cracker @ 11/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    The recent rain over the last 24 hours has made today’s Newbury ground slow, something that should suit Whip Cracker.

    The Cracksman three-year-old is running for the first time after his gelding operation and, having looked keen on a few starts so far this season, this looks like a good mood.

    Despite this characteristic, the 160,000gns purchase finished second in the Listed Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April, a race won by Jayarebe with Caviar Heights in third and Ambiente Friendly in fourth.

    That form is good as Jayarebe won the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes before running into Economics in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano, Caviar Heights won the Listed Newmarket Stakes next time out, and Ambiente Friendly has placed in two Group 1s since.

    Out of the Sea The Moon mare Wonderhorse, his dam is a half-sister to Advanced, who has his best form in softer conditions, and Wunder, a Group 1-placed mare in Germany.

    On his second start in a handicap and on the back of a 93-day break, he is very interesting here.

     

    3:00 Ayr – Sky Majesty @ 5/2 with BoyleSports – 1pt Win

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    I liked what Sky Majesty did on debut at Newbury for William Haggas, Tony Bloom, and Ian McAleavy, and the form is already working out well.

    The second, Hold A Dream, won a Yarmouth novice three days ago and the third, Glamour Show, is a horse who has solid form in the 80s.

    For a debut performance, she quickened away nicely under Tom Marquand and all it took was a hands-and-heels ride to secure success.

    By Blue Point out of the Bushranger mare Majestic Alexander, he is a half-brother to the Listed winner Democracy Dilemma and Ayr Gold Cup winner Angel Alexander, so the pedigree is there also.

    Haggas has a 25% strike rate at Ayr, and this is his only runner, so let’s hope that the 750-mile round trip is worth it.

     

    3:15 Newbury – Billboard Star @ 18/1 with Bet365 (2 places) – 1pt EW

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    Since the middle of this season, I’ve banged on about how Billboard Star has experienced plenty of trouble at crucial times, so I’m hoping for less of that today.

    Having chased home the subsequent Group 1 winner Whistlejacket in the July Stakes at Newmarket, a race that has worked out well as Aomori City won the Group 2 Vintage Stakes on his next start, he finished fourth in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes next time out.

    He was squeezed within the final half a furlong, so that caused him a bit of an issue, and it was a similar case in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes.

    This interference occurred two furlongs from home and Charlie Bishop pulled stumps when it happened, so that run can be forgiven.

    If he repeats that July Stakes form here, which was on good to soft ground, he has a sterling chance to out-run his odds and win.

     

    3:35 Ayr – Fivethousandtoone @ 33/1 with Sky Bet (8 places) – 0.5 EW

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    Fivethousandtoone is 1/19 in turf races throughout his career, but his mark of 99 makes him attractive back in a race that he has performed well in over the last few years.

    He finished ninth in 2021 from the wrong side of the track and 12th in 2022 with the same problem, but stall 10 looks more lenient today.

    As for his form this season, he was beaten less than three lengths in the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes in June, a race that has worked out well as the winner, Montassib, won the recent Group 1 Sprint Cup and the second, Kinross, was a facile winner of last week’s Group 2 Park Stakes.

    Even the third, Willem Twee, obliged off 106 in a Racing League handicap on his next start and the fifth, Spycatcher, won the Group 3 Prix de Meautry two starts later.

    His success off 98, which is one pound lower than today’s mark, on All-Weather Finals Day in March was very good as Oisin Murphy pulled him across the track into the centre before powering past Misty Grey (a two-time subsequent winner), Chipstead, and Billyjoh (placed in the Buckingham Palace Stakes and Stewards’ Cup since).

    He seems in top order having traded as low as 3/1 in-running on his latest start in the Group 2 City Of York Stakes over seven furlongs, though despite travelling powerfully into the race, he didn’t fully see out the trip.

    With the nature of this race, if they go off at an erratic pace, P J McDonald could sit tight with him and land him just on the line with his handy draw.

  • Irish St Leger Day | Believe in the Coward

    Irish St Leger Day | Believe in the Coward

    Although the British St Leger is in our rear view mirror, it’s Irish St Leger Day and the action from the Curragh, Doncaster, and Longchamp looks appetising.

    Reflecting on yesterday, it was a slightly annoying day.

    A few horses who made the shortlist before being scratched off went and obliged – a punter’s nightmare – and the finalised selections didn’t perform to expectations.

    Nurburgring returned EW profit at 13/2, but the other three weren’t good enough.

    Still, we are only 2.75 points down for the week so far, so it’s all to play for today.

     

    1:50 Curragh – Strike Red @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Starting at the Curragh, Strike Red is in good form and can return to the winners’ enclosure at a track he knows well.

    The six-year-old won at the course over an extended six furlongs last July off a mark of 95, so his current rating of 94 looks very workable.

    The track had 1.5mm of rain overnight which will help take some of the sting out of the ground as he wouldn’t want it rattling quick.

    When he won at the Curragh last year, he beat Aussie Girl who has improved 13 pounds and Albasheer who has improved eight pounds, so the form looks solid.

    Richard Fahey won this race in 2020 and 2015, so he had good success in Ireland, but I am only playing him win-only as he is prone to trouble in-running from stall three.

     

    2:05 Doncaster – Badri @ 13/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    Forgiving in horse racing is a double-edged sword, but I seem to do it more often than not and that’s the reason why Badri is the selection here.

    Of his nine career successes, his winning official ratings are 100, 96, 88, 90, 88, 82, 75, and 80 from latest to oldest.

    From his last success off 100 at Ascot, Woolhampton has improved eight pounds, Get It has improved five pounds after a Stewards’ Cup win, and Brave Nation has improved four pounds.

    That’s good form and his recent runs suggest he’s in good shape.

    Two starts ago, he put in a solid effort over six furlongs in the Racing League when getting no run up the rail and earlier this month he ran well on unpreferable soft ground.

    Trainer Michael Herrington has fired in three winners from his last nine runners, so he looks to have a nice chance on paper with an official rating of 88.

     

    3:15 Doncaster – Doom @ 6/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    In a very similar vein to Badri, I’m not willing to give up on Doom after his poor effort in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes 15 days ago.

    I fancied this Dubawi filly strongly at Sandown on her last start, but she never picked up, so I’m willing to draw a line through that run.

    Before that, she finished second to Friendly Soul in the Valiant Stakes who has since won a Group 2 in France and had her form franked thanks to Kalpana.

    Out of the Group 1 winner Dank, she has course form having finished second to the subsequent Oaks winner Soul Sister in October 2022 and she has also won over seven furlongs twice.

    Yesterday showed what kind of form William Haggas is in, so if the real Doom turns up, she could be too good.

     

    3:35 Curragh – Believing @ 5/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    For a few weeks, I’ve had Believing on my mind for a big sprint race this season, and it seems like George Boughey has had similar thoughts regarding the Group 1 Flying Five Stakes.

    She has three-quarters of a length to make up on Bradsell, but she ended up on the wrong side of the track and the race played out perfectly to suit Bradsell with a rapid pace up the far side rail.

    Connections have booked Ryan Moore on her return to the Curragh, a track she won at three starts ago in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes, and while stall one isn’t ideal, Fairyland won from that stall in 2019 and A Case Of You was second in 2021 from stall two.

    This has been the target for a while and her profile looks positive.

     

    4:10 Curragh – Cowardofthecounty @ 10/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    All season, I’ve been a fan of Cowardofthecounty, but he has underperformed more times than expected.

    His success on debut over course and distance was extremely taking and the form looks great considering Whistlejacket, the July Stakes and Prix Morny winner, was two and a half lengths back in second.

    After that, he finished seventh in the Coventry Stakes which is good form.

    Rashabar (the winner) chased home Whistlejacket in the Prix Morny, Cool Hoof Luke (the fourth) won the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes, and Al Qudra (the fifth) won the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes before nearly winning last night’s Grade 1 Summer Stakes in Woodbine.

    His break from the gates in the Anglesey Stakes cost him the race two starts ago, but he put that behind him to win the Group 3 Prix Francois Boutin last month.

    After Wolf Of Badenoch let down the Aomori City form yesterday and The Strikin Viking did the same for Henri Matisse’s form in the Gimcrack, it gives more scope to side with a bigger-priced fancy and that’s what Cowardofthecounty is.

     

    4:15 Longchamp – Rogue Lightning @ 4/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Over in France, there’s a great card that includes the Group 1 Prix Vermeille, but it’s the Group 3 Prix du Petit Couvert that has caught my attention.

    Rogue Lightning, for all he has performed below standard this season, has the standout form in this company.

    Firstly, his fifth to Highfield Princess from stall 19 in the Prix de l’Abbaye was a big performance and he then chased home Starlust in the Listed City Walls Stakes two starts later when giving five pounds away.

    The winner has finished third in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes subsequently and the third, Democracy Dilemma, has won the Listed Beverley Bullet since.

    The predicted soft ground in Paris should cause no issues as the four-year-old by Kodiac has won on good to firm and good to soft ground before.

    The cheekpieces have been applied for the first time and this looks like a smart piece of planning from Tom Clover and connections.

     

    5:55 Curragh – Mashhoor @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Finally, in the last race of Irish Champions Weekend, I’m returning to the horse I backed in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester in May as Mashhoor warrants respect in this company.

    He carries top weight here, but a mark of 105 is nine pounds higher than his last winning mark and Patrick McGettigan claims 10lbs off his back.

    I’m not going to claim I know everything about McGettigan, but he has one win under rules from nine rides and he has good experience in the pony racing ranks.

    Looking back on last year, he beat a slightly below-race-fit Al Riffa in the Group 3 International Stakes over course and distance before he ran a fair race behind Alflaila and My Prospero in the Group 2 York Stakes.

    He’s coming into this off a 112-day break, but the race conditions look suited to him and he’s a big price to find out if he’s back to his best.

  • St Leger and Irish Champion Stakes | Nurburgring driving on

    St Leger and Irish Champion Stakes | Nurburgring driving on

    Saturday is a good day for horse racing as the St Leger and Irish Champion Stakes take centre stage across an action-packed afternoon.

    Day two at the Leger meeting proved to be fruitful thanks to Aesterius and Sweet William, so let’s hope the momentum can roll on into today.

     

    2:25 Doncaster – Shagraan @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    For anyone that has followed the fancies on Twitter or TikTok over the last month or so, you’ll know the success Shagraan has delivered in these big-field handicaps.

    Mick Appleby has a good sprinter on his hands who, after two wins and a solid fifth in the Symphony Group Handicap, has only gone up in the handicap by eight pounds.

    The handicapper only gave him three pounds for his victory at Haydock seven days ago, which seems on the lenient side, so why not stick with him here?

    As a two-year-old, he clashed with Asadna, Big Evs, Purosangue, Task Force, and Seven Questions, all providing a solid base of form to go off.

    Furthermore, his age means he gets 2lbs from his elders and there are few things better than sticking with a progressive sprinter who is in lightning form, so he’s my horse for the Portland.

     

    3:25 Leopardstown – Ghostwriter @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Any horse with a piece of City Of Troy form deserves respect, so the fact that Ghostwriter has finished behind the Derby winner twice this season is a big positive.

    The Invincible Spirit colt has great form in the book, starting with his fourth to Notable Speech, Rosallion, and Haatem in the 2000 Guineas.

    Having run well on heavy ground, a less-than-ideal surface, in the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club, he chased home City Of Troy in the Coral-Eclipse and Juddmonte International.

    That first run looks solid as Al Riffa went on to win a Group 1 in Germany and See The Fire, the fourth, won the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York.

    The Juddmonte International, quality-wise, speaks for itself with Calandagan, Bluestocking, and the already-mentioned son of Justify, so there’s a lot going for him in this aspect.

    Three-year-olds have won seven of the last 10 renewals, so it will be tough for the likes of Auguste Rodin and Luxembourg to give six pounds away.

    For these reasons, Ghostwriter is the horse I’m siding with.

     

    3:40 Doncaster – Deira Mile @ 16/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    It’s been highlighted before, but the form of this year’s Derby is working out nicely, which gives a boost to the chances of Deira Mile who was fourth in the Epsom Classic.

    City Of Troy speaks for himself, but Ambiente Friendly and Los Angeles fought out the Irish Derby, Bellum Justum won the Nashville Derby recently, Ancient Wisdom won the Bahrain Trophy Stakes in July, Tabletalk won the Melrose and Kamboo won in the Racing League.

    His last run in the Listed August Stakes at Windsor was fine for a horse who was making his first start for 84 days, and trainer Owen Burrows even said to the Racing Post that it was a prep race for the Leger.

    He looks like a horse who can stay the extra two furlongs considering he ran through the line at both Epsom (when he came wide around the bend) and Windsor, so I’ll give him a chance here.

     

    4:35 Leopardstown – Nurburgring @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    On the day after Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond, and James May hung up their driving gloves after their final adventure on The Grand Tour, it’s fitting that Nurburgring – named after Germany’s legendary racetrack – is back out after his Galway Hurdle success.

    The four-year-old by Zoffany is well-known to us jumps fans thanks to his placed effort in the Grade 1 Champion Four Year Old Hurdle and Grade 2 Mercedes-Benz South Dublin Juvenile Hurdle.

    But, his exploits on the Flat merit good consideration for a horse who has a Flat rating of just 90.

    As a three-year-old, he beat the now 107-rated Queenstown in a Navan maiden and then finished a good fifth in the Listed Yeats Stakes behind Peking Opera and the now 111-rated Covent Garden.

    That’s good form, and we know he’ll be race-fit as his Galway Hurdle win was just 44 days ago.

    Rather than looking at him in a race like this and thinking ‘It’s a prep run’, much like his run at Leopardstown in July, there’s plenty of reason to say today is his day.

    Firstly, the race is worth €88,500 to the winner, so it’s fair to say that connections would like that prize money, and if he wins, he gives himself a chance at running in next month’s €600,000 Irish Cesarewitch.

    A rating of 90 wouldn’t get him into the race as it stands, but if he got a 7lb penalty for winning today, he would be right on the edge of getting into a race he is the 7/1 ante-post favourite for.

    Of course, not everything goes this easily to plan, but Nurburgring has plenty of things in his favour today.

  • St Leger Festival 2024 Day 2 | Leap of Faith

    St Leger Festival 2024 Day 2 | Leap of Faith

    Yesterday was frustrating, but there are a few interesting horses to note on day two of the Doncaster St Leger meeting.

    January ran a good race in the May Hill Stakes when finishing second at 6/1 and Night Sparkle was a tough watch in the Park Hill Stakes, so the crossbar was certainly hit on Thursday.

    With this in mind, let’s hope for a bit more success today.

    1:50 Doncaster – Quantum Leap @ 10/1 – 1pt EW

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    In the opening contest of the day, it’s worth chancing Quantum Leap to make up for last year’s disappointing effort in this race.

    The New Approach gelding has run with credit all season and he was a notable eye-catcher on his last start in the Stayers Handicap at York.

    Samui, the runner-up, went on to finish a good third behind ABSURBE and CAIUS CHORISTER in the Chester Stakes on his last start to help give the form some substance.

    His current rating of 82 is the same mark he had when winning at Haydock in July 2023 and he could easily improve past this rating based on his debut success over the now 92-rated Aztec Empire, a horse who has good form with Sweet William.

    He’s a slow starter, which is a small concern, but there’s a small thing which makes me think this has been a bit of a plan considering he ran in the 2023 renewal, so I’m willing to back him today.

    3:00 Doncaster – Aesterius @ 5/1 – 1pt EW

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    The Flying Childers looks like a race that could see one improve past the horses at the head of the market, and Aesterius looks ready to do so

    His form from the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot is working out really nicely thanks to a number of horses.

    Tropical Storm beat him that day, but Aesterius came from the other side of the track and he was staying on at the same rate as the now Group 1 winner Whistlejacket who finished fourth.

    He was staying on behind Big Mojo at Goodwood before Mr Lightside slightly bumped him in the final half a furlong, but he put that behind him to win in France on his latest start.

    I think he has some quality and is worth a play here.

    3:35 Doncaster – Sweet William @ 15/8 – 2pt Win

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    The Doncaster Cup takes centre stage today and it’s a good opportunity for the Sweet William to get a big victory on the board.

    His efforts behind Kyprios in the Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup are standout and he even beat Trueshan, who reappears today, in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown.

    Furthermore, Vauban came out of the Gold Cup and won the Lonsdale Cup to frank the form.

    John & Thady Gosden have a strong hand in the race with Gregory towards the head of the market, but Sweet William is a more consistent horse and his form when second to Absurde in last year’s Ebor has worked out well.

    5:20 Doncaster – Wheels Of Fire @ 17/2 – 1pt EW

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    Richard Hannon has always thought plenty of Wheels Of Fire this season, so it’s interesting to see him step into nursery company off a mark of 84.

    The Mehmas colt had a confidence booster at Lingfield last month when justifying odds of 1/3 over five furlongs and the handicapper has left him alone for the effort.

    Before that, he didn’t show his true potential, though his efforts showed plenty of promise.

    He finished third at Goodwood in a hot maiden and the winner, Jouncy, finished second to Symbol Of Strength in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes.

    That form looks good in a race like this and I’m hoping for a big run today.

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | January is coming

    St Leger Festival 2024 | January is coming

    After a small hiatus, the regular betting columns for Best Of Bets are back just in time for the start of the Doncaster St Leger meeting.

    When we left this column in July, the P/L stood at +15.7 points after a disappointing final few weeks.

    So, let’s dive into Day 1 of the Doncaster St Leger meeting.

     

    3:00 Doncaster – January @ 6/1 with SkyBet – 1pt EW

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    Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Ecstatic in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes, but Aidan O’Brien’s other runner January makes the most appeal to me.

    The two-year-old by Kingman has a smart pedigree as she is out of I Can Fly who finished a close second to Roaring Lion in the 2018 Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

    On debut, she ran a solid race behind stablemate Heavens Gate – who already had a race under her belt – which looks like good form as she has subsequently placed in two Group races and won the Ballyhane Stakes.

    Two starts later, she put in another solid performance in the Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes, a race that has seen California Dreamer come out and finish behind the subsequent Group 1 winner Babouche in the Anglesey Stakes.

    Having won by a comfortable four lengths over seven and a half furlongs at Tipperary last time out, trying a mile for the first time looks like a natural step.

    Although this is her fifth race as a juvenile, I Can Fly was a highly-tried mare who continued to get better with age, so we probably won’t see the best of her until at least next season.

    Despite that, her form looks good enough to take a chance on her here.

     

    3:35 Doncaster – Night Sparkle @ 4/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    In what looks like a winnable Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes, Night Sparkle has a great chance to break her run of near misses.

    Since moving to Andrew Baling from Michael O’Callaghan, she has run two solid races behind Term Of Endearment – the latest of which when finishing ahead of Ciaus Chorister who was second to Absurde at Chester recently – as well as two good runs against the boys over two miles.

    The first of which occurred in the Listed Marathon Stakes at Sandown when second to Trueshan and the second was in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup behind Vauban, Al Nayyir, and Gregory.

    Both of those races look like good form and it looks as if 1m6f is the perfect distance for her.

    As much as Sumo Sam, on her second start after a wind-op, is a danger at 12/1, I think Night Sparkle has the ability to show her class in this company.

     

    4:40 Doncaster – Jorge Alvares @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Jorge Alvares was a horse that caught my eye after his run in the Harry’s Half Million By Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes at York, so I want to keep him onside on his handicap debut.

    With a rating of 82 after a two-pound rise from his last run, the gelding by Cotai Glory came from the rear of the field on the wrong side of the pack to finish a good fourth.

    Arizona Blaze, who finished second, brought Group form into the race, so the form looks better than average.

    Furthermore, from his debut run at York, Yah Mo Be There (second) has won a Listed race since and Andesite (first) was chucked straight into Group 2 company on his next run.

    Having run well on good to soft and good to firm before, any ground is fine for him.

     

    5:10 Doncaster – Defence Missile @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    From one nursery handicap to another, Defence Missile looks like a worthy bet off a mark of 79 with the first-time cheekpieces applied.

    On debut, he finished second to Mr Chaplin who has a rating of 96 having won a Class 2 handicap at Goodwood subsequently.

    Two starts later, he was a good third in a Salisbury novice stakes when trying to make all, form that looks good as Royal Playwright ran well behind Field Of Gold in the Solario Stakes and Original Outlaw chased home Mr Chaplin in that handicap at Goodwood.

    The son of Sottsass is a well-bred horse running in a 0-80, and with a run on the all-weather 22 days ago under his belt, he should be primed to go well here.

  • Newmarket July Cup Day | Row up the River

    Newmarket July Cup Day | Row up the River

    In what is labelled as ‘Super Saturday’ in the racing world, Newmarket July Cup Day is upon us with top-class action from Newmarket, Ascot, Chester, and York to look forward to.

    With a plethora of racing on our screens today, here are my main bets.

     

    2:12 Newmarket – Heritage House @ 33/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    Heritage House has taken a walk in the market this morning, but as they say, the horse doesn’t know its price and her form in the book looks interesting off a mark of 93.

    The Dark Angel three-year-old has tried handicap company on two occasions, winning one and finishing second to Chic Colombine the other time.

    Chic Colombine is a Listed winner rated 103, so that form looks fairly strong.

    As for her other runs, she finished fourth to Romantic Style – a subsequent French 1000 Guineas fourth – in the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes last year and she then ran a good race on her last start.

    That race was the Listed Eternal Stakes at Carlisle and the winner, Jabaara, franked the form yesterday by finishing second to Porta Fortuna in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes.

    The James Fanshawe yard is in fair form currently, so she’s an interesting contender at a big price.

     

    2:20 Ascot – Embesto @ 14/1 with William Hill (2 places) – 1pt EW

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    Over at Ascot, my main play from the course comes at a price as Embesto can outrun his odds in the Group 2 Summer Mile Stakes.

    It’s not a vintage renewal on paper, but the four-year-old by Roaring Lion progressed nicely as a three-year-old and has form in the book that makes him interesting in this company.

    As much as he failed to fire subsequently, finishing second to Nostrum in the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes looks like good form and he then showed great attitude to force a dead-heat in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury.

    Following a good fourth to Poker Face (second to Charyn at the start of this year) and Isaac Shelby (Classic form from last season) in the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein, he has had a murky start to his 2024 campaign.

    One can forgive him for his first run of the season and then he had a troubled route through the Group 3 Diomed Stakes, so he has had excuses for the efforts.

    If he puts his best foot forward – which he should do thanks to a bit more race fitness – I can see him having a good chance of causing a surprise.

     

    3:45 York – Al Qareem @ 3/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    With eight runners declared for the Group 3 Silver Cup Stakes at York, the race looks ripe for an each-way play, but I can’t get away from Al Qareem at the head of affairs.

    Conditions look pretty decent for the five-year-old by Awtaad as he is racing over 1m6f at York on good to soft ground.

    He’s won at York over 1m4f before, but he did win the Group 2 Prix Chaudenay over 1m7f in 2022, so the trip is not too much of a worry.

    Ignoring his 2022 form (which looks good on paper having run alongside Eldar Eldarov and Deauville Legend), his 2023 form is the best in the race.

    Having had a stint abroad in early 2023, he returned to the UK with a victory over Bluestocking in the Listed Stand Cup Stakes at Chester before beating Israr in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes.

    Subsequently, he has finished behind Hamish on two occasions, once in the 2023 Group 3 St Simon Stakes and once at the start of this season in the Group 3 Surprise Stakes.

    So, with all that form in the book, let’s hope he translates that to the track.

     

    4:35 Newmarket – River Tiber @ 8/1 with Betfair (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In what is a good renewal of the July Cup, I’m chancing River Tiber for a stable that does well in this contest with horses dropping in trip.

    Aidan O’Brien won the race with U S Navy Flag in 2018 and Ten Sovereigns in 2019, two horses who started the season at eight furlongs.

    That is the same profile as River Tiber who ran a great race when third to Rosallion in the Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas at the end of May.

    Furthermore, one could argue that the Irish Guineas turned into a bit of a sprint as the early sectionals were on the slow side and the front three flew home with wet sails.

    With my frequently-used forgiving hat on, he potentially bounced in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and there was plenty of confidence behind him that day.

    Of course, one has to respect Vandeek and Inisherin at the head of the market, but 8/1 seems like a fair price for a horse of River Tiber’s quality and I’m happy to back him.

  • Northumberland Plate Day Tips | Catch if you can

    Northumberland Plate Day Tips | Catch if you can

    We are on the other side of Royal Ascot 2024 as the Northumberland Plate up at Newcastle takes centre stage.

    Firstly, I’ll quickly review Ascot from both a racing fan perspective and with my Bestofbets.com-tinted glasses on.

    Without trying to re-cover too many things, the meeting was a strong event to show to the wider public.

    The racing was great, the areas around the track for social gatherings felt busy but not cramped, and the races themselves felt like prestigious events due to the prize money on offer and the number of participants.

    As shop windows to wider society go, the royal meeting did well above what was required of it, and the fact a few non-racing celebrities who resonate with a younger audience attended and posted about it on their social media (notably KSI from the Sidemen) is brilliant to see.

    As for this column, we clawed in 23.5pts of profit from 44.5pts staked at an ROI of +52.80.

    Of course, good form and bad form crop up at random points throughout the season, but we certainly found some good selections through Royal Ascot, so hopefully that positive form continues.

     

    2:04 Newcastle – Spycatcher @ 5/1 with William Hill – 2pts Win

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    The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes has an interesting profile this year and two horses have solid Group 1 form already in the book, though it’s the bigger-priced one of the pair – Spycatcher – that I’m siding with.

    Kinross has the best form in the book based on his third to Shaquille in the July Cup and all of his Group 1/2 wins, but today is his first start for 252 days.

    For a horse priced up at 3/1, that puts me off considering he is 0/3 in races after a 200-day+ break.

    As for Spycatcher, he nearly won this race last year but found the talented Tiber Flow too good, and I wonder whether he hit the front half-a-furlong too soon as his effort in the final few strides didn’t look the strongest.

    Since then, the six-year-old by Vadamos has bolted up in a Group 3 at Deauville and finished third in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint.

    That form looks solid as the fourth, Swingalong, finished second in last week’s Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes.

    Furthermore, when connections tried him over seven furlongs in the Group 2 Park Stakes, he performed admirably behind Sandrine and Audience, the later of which went on to win the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes this season.

    With two runs under his belt this season, one can imagine that connections have targeted him for this race and he picked up a win on the all-weather in 2022, so his form on the surface is solid.

     

    2:15 Newmarket – Teej A @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    If Teej A wins today’s Listed Empress Fillies’ Stakes, she will become one of my favourite horses in training as it’s hard to knock her attitude at this young age.

    The two-year-old Mehmas filly has an obvious piece of form in the book from Chester that makes her appealing in this company as she beat Rashabar, last week’s Group 2 Coventry Stakes winner, by two-and-a-quarter lengths.

    A few of Rashabar’s connections believed they should have won at Chester if he was better drawn, and while that is a fair comment, Teej A still delivered an impressive performance.

    He did something similar at Epsom to win the Woodcote Stakes as Clifford Lee sauntered to the head of affairs and kicked clear with a furlong to go.

    Interestingly, Lee didn’t use his whip once at Chester and didn’t use it in the final half-a-furlong at Epsom, suggesting that connections have yet to get to the bottom of the 52,000gns purchase.

    Of course, the presence of Tales Of The Heart (a 400,000gns purchase) and Arabian Dusk (a 525,000gns purchase) are worries, but Teej A has impressed numerous times this season and I’m not willing to ditch her.

     

    3:30 Curragh – Lumiere Rock @ 17/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    A couple of horses contesting this year’s Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes have form that ties in with Warm Heart, a good yardstick for the division last year, but Lumiere Rock is the one I’m siding with.

    For all that Bluestocking looked impressive in the Group 2 Middleton Fillies’ Stakes at York in May, her form with Warm Heart is arguably worse than what Lumiere Rock has in the book.

    Lumiere Rock was ahead of Bluestocking in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes won by Warm Heart and then she went on to bolt up in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes over the same course and distance as today’s assignment three months later.

    Following a solid third in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera on Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Day, the four-year-old by Saxon Warrior went to the Breeders’ Cup and produced a career-best effort to finish sixth to Inspiral and Warm Heart.

    With a run under her belt, the conditions of this race (at the Curragh on good ground over 10 furlongs) look perfect for her to run a big race and she is the choice of Dylan Browne McMonagle over stablemate Maxux.

     

    3:40 Newcastle – Raadobarg @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Amo Racing have a strong hand in the Class 2 0-105 seven-furlong handicap at Newcastle, but Raadobarg has a bit more appeal than Baradar.

    Both horses have the ability to win a race like this, though one would question whether the Bunbury Cup or International Stakes next month is the long-term target for Baradar.

    As for Raadobarg, he is solid Listed/Group 3 horse based on last year’s form as he finished third in five pattern races and a close fifth in the Group 3 Prix Quincey Stakes.

    The winner of that race, Poker Face, was second to Charyn (a subsequent Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes winner) in the Group 2 bet365 Mile at the start of this season, so that looks like solid form.

    As for other bits of form, his third to Chindit on two occasions last year looks solid as Chindit finished second in the 2023 Group 1 Lockinge Stakes.

    If he handles the step back to seven furlongs, this six-year-old by Night Of Thunder could do some danger off a mark of 101.

  • Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Well, Royal Ascot Day 5 is here and we have made it to the end of a long week.

    Away from the betting aspect of the royal meeting, I (as well as many) think that Royal Ascot 2024 has succeeded where Cheltenham potentially faltered this year.

    Great field sizes, competitive contests, no odds-on favourites (to my counting), and a great vibe around the place.

    This isn’t to take any shots at the Cheltenham Festival as many know my love and affection for that meeting, but as a jumps man through and through, Ascot (despite multiple days under a beating sun) failed to disappoint in a year where jump racing’s Olympics had a deflating feeling about it.

    Let’s hope this year was a blip for Prestbury Park’s marquee event in terms of the overall enjoyment, though as we all know, a few changes are required to help that occur.

    Anyway, back to what matters, we are rolling into the final day of the royal meeting on the back of a good week for the column.

    Before the Chesham kicks off action today, the column has secured a profit of 22.5pts from 35.5 staked (ROI of +63.4%), so let’s hope we can continue this nice stretch of form.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Candleford @ 12/1 with BetVictor (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The two market favourites – Continuous and Middle Earth – are definitely the ‘sexy horses’ in this line-up, but Candleford appeals to me at the prices.

    The six-year-old by Kingman is race-fit, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old by Heart’s Cry isn’t, and Candleford has a big affection for Ascot.

    He was second (when subsequently disqualified due to Adam Farragher weighing-in light) on his Ascot debut and he then won at Royal Ascot in 2022 in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

    Later in 2022, he finished third to Hamish in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes, form that looks solid as his stablemate has won five Group 3s since and he finished second in the Group 1 Coronation Cup on his last start.

    As for his other form, his victory in the Listed August Stakes at Windsor in August 2023 looks good as the second (Solid Stone) had form with Hukum in 2023, the third (Lion’s Pride) ran to an RPR of 119 in the Listed Floodlit Stakes two starts later, and the fourth (Deauville Legend) was fourth in the 2022 Melbourne Cup.

    Following that, his second to Bay Bridge in the Group 3 September Stakes is another great piece of form as he finished sixth to Ace Impact in the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe subsequently.

    With a winning return under his belt having claimed success at the Curragh 28 days ago (which has seen Sumiha, the second, frank the form by winning the Group 3 Munster Oaks on her next start), one would hope he’ll improve fitness-wise and he’ll enjoy the fast ground.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Swingalong @ 12/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, I can’t ignore the form that Swingalong has in the book.

    The four-year-old filly by Showcasing is a rapid sort who finished third in a good renewal of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup last year.

    The winner (Shaquille) won the Group 1 July Cup Stakes on his next start, the second (Little Big Bear) was a high-class Group 1-winning two-year-old, the third (Ocean Quest) won a Group 3 on her next start, and the seventh (Shouldvebeenaring) placed in two Group 1s subsequently.

    That is rock-solid Ascot form and she also finished fourth on soft ground in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint Stakes on her final start of the season.

    She has winning form on good ground and last year’s appearance at the royal meeting occurred on good to firm, so the quick surface will cause no issues and she blew the cobwebs off at York last month.

    With a solid Ascot record and Group 1 form to fall back on, she seems like a fair bet at 12/1.

     

    4:25 Ascot – Mountain Bear @ 40/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    The Group 3 Jersey Stakes looks like a great contest this year, but Mountain Bear is one I’m interested in at the big prices.

    Many eyes will turn to Aidan O’Brien’s first string, River Tiber, at the head of affairs and he does demand that high level of respect, but the same case occurred last year with The Antarctic and stablemate Age Of Kings won the race instead.

    On last year’s form, he was third to Haatem and Iberian (a highly regarded Charlie Hills-trained horse) in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes on less-than-ideal ground and he finished the season with a great run in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on firm ground when second to stablemate Unquestionable.

    Unquestionable has since finished fourth to Rosallion twice this season, the best of which came in this week’s Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes.

    Mountain Bear is likely to improve for his outing in the Irish 2000 Guineas and O’Brien does have a knack for winning the Jersey Stakes with outsiders.

    Not only did he do it last year, but Mountain Bear’s grand-dam (Song Of The Sea) produced Ishvana who won the 2012 renewal at odds of 20/1 even though the yard had Reply in the contest, a better-fancied runner with good Guineas form in the book.

    Hopefully, something similar can occur this year.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Chipstead @ 40/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Orazio @ 16/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW for both

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    The Wokingham is a tough, tough handicap, but I’m splitting stakes and taking a chance on two horses.

    The first is Orazio who is probably my biggest cliff horse on the Flat as I’ve backed him in all of his last five races.

    To begin with, he was my big ante-post fancy for last year’s Wokingham and he finished sixth when well-backed into an SP of 7/2.

    He ran well that day, and while plenty (including connections) thought he wants cut in the ground, that occurred on fast ground and he didn’t seem to hate it.

    This season, he ran respectably on seasonal debut in a fairly strong renewal of the Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes as the winner (Montassib) finished sixth in the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes subsequently and the fourth (Adaay In Devon) won the Listed Scurry Stakes on her last start.

    My theory is that this horse isn’t a six-furlong horse that contains a rapid turn of foot. Instead, he has the ability to travel at a very high cruising speed and maintain that when it matters late on.

    If Saffie Osborne can position him prominently, I think he might enjoy that more than coming off the pace.

    As for Chipstead, this is slightly a sentimental vote as Jack Doughty takes the ride, but he’s back to a winning mark with good form in the book.

    His last four winning marks came off 97, 97, 102, and 97, so today’s rating of 98 is workable and Doughty’s five-pound claim is a massive bonus.

    He was subject to a big gamble on his last start in the Epsom Dash, but he was caught for a touch of speed, so this return to six furlongs at Ascot will suit.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Palace Green @ 10/1 with Paddy Power (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Richard Hughes yard isn’t in the best form at the moment (one winner from 33 runners), but the horses look like they are running into form and that is enough to give me hope for Palace Green.

    The three-year-old by Sea The Moon has good form in the book as he was third to Dallas Star, a subsequent Group 3 Ballysax Stakes winner, at Bath on just his second career start.

    He kicked this season off with a nice five-length win at Kempton before running well on his first start at 12 furlongs at York.

    It looked as if he didn’t quite stay the trip that day, but he loomed up ominously well for a while, which offers plenty of encouragement that he’s still improving.

    Furthermore, the winner at York was Aidan O’Brien’s London City, a regally bred colt (by Justify out of the Galileo two-time Guineas winner Winter) who was running off a lowly mark of 93.

    This looks like a little bit of a plan by connections and he’s an unexposed horse to side with here.

  • Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    We’re over the hump as Royal Ascot Day 4 is upon us, and there’s no hiding from the fact that yesterday was tough.

    Stakes were reduced as I thought it was a tough day going into it, and that proved to be right as the four selections didn’t provide any profit.

    We’re still up for the week so far, but hopefully, we can get back on the right track today.

     

    2:30 Ascot – California Dreamer @ 18/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    It’s a small worry that California Dreamer is drifting in the Group 3 Albany Stakes, but if the two-year-old races have taught us anything this week, it’s that juveniles can drift in these markets and still win.

    The Mehmas filly has two runs under her belt having lost at Dundalk on debut when 4/7 and finished third to Fairy Godmother at Naas on her last start.

    On pure form, she is held by the Ballydoyle favourite, but David Egan probably made his move too soon on her when the cutaway opened up which set the race up for the late closers.

    They clocked 42mph and ran three sub-11-second furlongs between the five-furlong pole and the two-furlong pole, and the Amo Racing contender was the one who hit the front three furlongs from home.

    It’s Ascot, so they’re bound to go hard early, but the presence of Wesley Ward’s Burning Pride in stall four should give California Dreamer a nice tow into the race from stall three.

    If so, she has the pedigree to hand (her dam, Penelopa, won the Group 1 Preis Der Diana in 2013 on good ground) and she could outrun her odds.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Givemethebeatboys @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    With the absence of Vandeek and Bucanero Fuerte, the Commonwealth Cup is a wide-open contest, and Givemethebeatboys looks overpriced based on his strong pieces of form.

    The Bungle Inthejungle colt ran at the royal meeting last year and finished behind River Tiber (three-time Group 1 placed subsequently), Army Ethos, and Bucanero Fuerte (Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner subsequently).

    He was also ahead of Haatem who has placed in both the English and Irish Guineas this season.

    Following a good run after a 53-day break in the Phoenix Stakes, he put in a career-best effort when fourth to Vandeek in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, form that looks solid as Starlust (5th) has won a Class 2 handicap off 105 subsequently.

    He defied a penalty to win first-time-out and then nearly beat Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes last month.

    Bucanero Fuerte was my idea of the Commonwealth Cup winner at an ante-post stage, so Givemethebeatboys’ form ties in nicely with him and he seemingly loves quick ground.

    Stall 14 is preferable over the lower draws in a race like this – which casts a small negative over the top of the market – and he has trained on from two to three.

    He looks like Jessica Harrington’s best chance of the week, so let’s hope he delivers for the team.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Ramatuelle @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    The Coronation Stakes is one of the best races of the week, and it’s the Newmarket 1000 Guineas fourth, Ramatuelle, that I like for this.

    Analysing her effort at the Rowley Mile, I’m not the first person to say that she got to the front too soon.

    Aurelien Lemaitre pushed his mount to the front three furlongs from home, and despite hitting an in-running price of 1.01, Elmalka and Porta Fortuna caught her late.

    Although I considered both of these runners as potential horses that could cause her issues, the form Christopher Head’s three-year-old filly by Justify has in the book is hard to ignore.

    On seasonal debut, she finished second to Romantic Style who was a close fourth in the French 1000 Guineas on her next start. Tamfana was also back in third who caught eye-catcher subsequently in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas and then finished third in the Group 1 Prix de Diane.

    As a two-year-old, she nearly beat Vandeek in the Group 1 Prix Morny (on ground that wasn’t preferable) and she also beat His Majesty by four lengths in the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin.

    On her second career start, Beauvatier just got the better of her in a standard conditions race, but that form is better than some people realise and he ended the season by finishing third to Rosallion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.

    With a fast ground favouring pedigree (her dam, Raven’s Lady, won a firm ground race), the conditions at Ascot will suit and I think she might finally get her day in the sun today.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Soprano @ 16/1 with Boyle Sports (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In what is my only handicap play of the day, I can see why Soprano has received a bit of market support over the last 24 hours.

    She has a mark of 100 to overcome, but that rating is on the lenient side for a horse of her quality as her form as a two-year-old is the best here.

    She finished a staying-on second from a slightly worse part of the track in last year’s Group 2 Albany Stakes and both Matrika and Porta Fortuna have franked the form subsequently.

    Furthermore, she chased home the very impressive Shuwari and Fallen Angel (Irish 1000 Guineas winner) in the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown before finishing second to Fallen Angel at Newmarket.

    Her form slightly tailed off towards the end of her campaign, but she did have six runs as a juvenile and her worst efforts came at the end of that season.

    As a three-year-old, she blew the cobwebs off at Chelmsford and then put in a good effort at Musselburgh at the start of the month.

    George Boughey has yet to land a winner this week, but she looks like one of his stronger chances of Royal Ascot and her draw in 18 is favourable.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Diego Velazquez @ 4/1 with William Hill (1.5pt Win) & Voyage @ 9/1 with William Hill (1pt EW) (4 places)

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    I’ve taken a slightly safe route into the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes as both Diego Velazquez and Voyage make plenty of appeal to me.

    Starting with the favourite, although he is a classic Ballydoyle ‘hype horse’, he’s starting to mature nicely and his form is arguably the best here.

    He beat Capulet on his second start who improved to win the Listed Dee Stakes this season (a race that got a form boost yesterday thanks to Jayarebe) and Deepone finished fourth who completed the season with a success in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes.

    There are excuses for his efforts in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes and Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club as the ground was heavy on both occasions and with his pedigree (Frankel half-brother to Broome), one can imagine fast ground suits him better.

    The form of his fourth in the Group 1 French 2000 Guineas looks solid as Dancing Gemini (2nd) finished a good sixth in the Derby and Henry Longfellow (8th) chased home Rosallion in the St James’s Palace Stakes, so his 4/1 price looks more than fair.

    As for Voyage, I think he’s a little bit more unexposed than plenty in here with just that one official run under his belt.

    That came at Newbury where he won comfortably, though he got a nice runout when first past the post in the Epsom Derby having unshipped Pat Dobbs at the start.

    Considering his Manduro half-sister Plein Air and Majahid half-brother Close Your Eyes both won Listed races, his pedigree looks great, and he is by a better sire in Golden Horn.

    Therefore, I want to keep him on my side while also backing Diego Velazquez.

  • Royal Ascot Day 3 Tips | Musmak makes appeal

    Royal Ascot Day 3 Tips | Musmak makes appeal

    Royal Ascot Day 3 is here and so far, the week has gone well for the column.

    Tuesday kicked off with Israr and a 25/1 place returning profit and yesterday continued the good form thanks to Illinois, Running Lion, and EW profit on Rowayeh.

    Let’s hope the rest of the week is more of the same.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Cogitate @ 22/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Connections of Cogitate were probably sick when they saw stall one next to their horse’s name for the Brittania Stakes as if he had a better draw, he’d have a brilliant chance in this contest.

    The three-year-old by Churchill looked very good on debut at Newbury as he beat Boiling Point, now rated 107, by two lengths under Hollie Doyle who returns to the saddle.

    The form of that race looks strong as even the third, Maximum Dividend, was a head-second to Starlore on debut at Sandown coming into that Newbury contest.

    Cogitate disappointed at York in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes, but his seasonal return at Southwell when behind Karl Burke’s Night Raider was promising.

    Charlie Hills is looking forward to running Cogitate here, though he has a tough task from his draw. Still, his profile warrants a bet at the prices.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Al Musmak @ 18/1 with BetVictor (4 places)  – 1pt EW

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    The ‘forgiving hat’ provided success yesterday as Running Lion won the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes and I’m using it again today thanks to Al Musmak in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes.

    On his seasonal return, he was sent off 4/1 for the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York and finished seventh of seven, though trainer Roger Varian subsequently reported that “his bloods were off”.

    His last run is therefore excused and based on his two-year-old form, he has a right chance in this company.

    On debut, he won at Ascot over seven furlongs on ground that was on the softer side and he then finished second in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes to Rosallion.

    The winner has franked the form massively since, though he also beat Ancient Wisdom (subsequent Group 1 Futurity Stakes winner), Alyanaabi (subsequent Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes runner-up), Dancing Gemini (subsequent Group 1 French 2000 Guineas runner-up), and Sunway (subsequent Group 1 Criterium International winner).

    That’s good form, and he also won the Listed Ascendant Stakes on his next start before finishing second in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes on his final start of 2023.

    To my eye, he’s wanted a race over further than a mile for a while, so it is a shame we didn’t get to see his full capabilities in the Dante Stakes in May.

    However, his pedigree would offer some hope regarding today’s 10 furlongs assignment as his dam, Parton, is a half-sister to the 1m4f winner Boltaway.

    Furthermore, his grand-dam (Proviso) won four Grade 1 races in America on firm ground, so he is likely to enjoy today’s faster conditions.

    If he recreates any of that two-year-old form today, he could make his 20/1 price look silly.

     

    6:15 Ascot – Alzahir @ 22/1 with William Hill (6 places) & The X O @ 20/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 0.5pt EW for both

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    In the Buckingham Palace Stakes that concludes the card, I’m taking two chances at slightly lower stakes, the first of which is Alzahir.

    The former John & Thady Gosden-trained Sea The Stars gelding has had three runs for David O’Meara, though the best of his runs for his new yard came at Chester on his first start of the season.

    From stall eight, he got into a nice position, though he was fairly keen early on and he potentially paid for that in the final stages.

    That run showed promise and he’s likely to come on for it, and if he does, his form from the early parts of his career reads well.

    He finished second to Brave Emperor in a Kempton conditions stakes in March 2023, form that looks good as the winner has a rating of 114 having won two Group 2s and three Group 3s since. The fourth, Killybegs Warrior, also franked the form in some decent Class 2 handicaps subsequently.

    As for The X O, connections stepped him up to seven furlongs on his last start, and I actually thought he handled this new trip well.

    He raced on the outside at Epsom throughout most of the race, though when Rossa Ryan delivered his challenge just before the one-furlong pole, he stuck at it well.

    Having placed in last year’s Group 3 Commonwealth Cup Trial, he has classy form in the book, and the return to a straight track will help him here.

    He’s also likely to relish the good to firm ground compared to the good to soft conditions he experienced on Epsom Oaks Day.

    So, off a lenient mark of 95, I’ll chance him here.