We’re over the hump as Royal Ascot Day 4 is upon us, and there’s no hiding from the fact that yesterday was tough.
Stakes were reduced as I thought it was a tough day going into it, and that proved to be right as the four selections didn’t provide any profit.
We’re still up for the week so far, but hopefully, we can get back on the right track today.
2:30 Ascot – California Dreamer @ 18/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW
It’s a small worry that California Dreamer is drifting in the Group 3 Albany Stakes, but if the two-year-old races have taught us anything this week, it’s that juveniles can drift in these markets and still win.
The Mehmas filly has two runs under her belt having lost at Dundalk on debut when 4/7 and finished third to Fairy Godmother at Naas on her last start.
On pure form, she is held by the Ballydoyle favourite, but David Egan probably made his move too soon on her when the cutaway opened up which set the race up for the late closers.
Whoosh 💨
Fairy Godmother sparkles in the closing stages to land Group 3 honours in the €70,000 @coolmorestud @IrishEBF_ Fillies Sprint Stakes.
Three races here and three winners for Ryan Moore and Aidan O'Brien! pic.twitter.com/ve1fN4Ez7C
— Naas Racecourse (@NaasRacecourse) May 19, 2024
They clocked 42mph and ran three sub-11-second furlongs between the five-furlong pole and the two-furlong pole, and the Amo Racing contender was the one who hit the front three furlongs from home.
It’s Ascot, so they’re bound to go hard early, but the presence of Wesley Ward’s Burning Pride in stall four should give California Dreamer a nice tow into the race from stall three.
If so, she has the pedigree to hand (her dam, Penelopa, won the Group 1 Preis Der Diana in 2013 on good ground) and she could outrun her odds.
3:05 Ascot – Givemethebeatboys @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW
With the absence of Vandeek and Bucanero Fuerte, the Commonwealth Cup is a wide-open contest, and Givemethebeatboys looks overpriced based on his strong pieces of form.
The Bungle Inthejungle colt ran at the royal meeting last year and finished behind River Tiber (three-time Group 1 placed subsequently), Army Ethos, and Bucanero Fuerte (Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner subsequently).
He was also ahead of Haatem who has placed in both the English and Irish Guineas this season.
River Tiber is the real deal and wins the Coventry for Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien! #RoyalAscot @Ascot pic.twitter.com/r8yQ2truYB
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) June 20, 2023
Following a good run after a 53-day break in the Phoenix Stakes, he put in a career-best effort when fourth to Vandeek in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, form that looks solid as Starlust (5th) has won a Class 2 handicap off 105 subsequently.
He defied a penalty to win first-time-out and then nearly beat Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes last month.
Bucanero Fuerte was my idea of the Commonwealth Cup winner at an ante-post stage, so Givemethebeatboys’ form ties in nicely with him and he seemingly loves quick ground.
Stall 14 is preferable over the lower draws in a race like this – which casts a small negative over the top of the market – and he has trained on from two to three.
He looks like Jessica Harrington’s best chance of the week, so let’s hope he delivers for the team.
3:45 Ascot – Ramatuelle @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win
The Coronation Stakes is one of the best races of the week, and it’s the Newmarket 1000 Guineas fourth, Ramatuelle, that I like for this.
Analysing her effort at the Rowley Mile, I’m not the first person to say that she got to the front too soon.
Aurelien Lemaitre pushed his mount to the front three furlongs from home, and despite hitting an in-running price of 1.01, Elmalka and Porta Fortuna caught her late.
How does Ramatuelle get beat? 😱
She was matched at 1.04 in-running
1000 Guineas winner Elmalka hit 990 on the @BetfairExchange
— Betfair Racing (@BetfairRacing) May 5, 2024
Although I considered both of these runners as potential horses that could cause her issues, the form Christopher Head’s three-year-old filly by Justify has in the book is hard to ignore.
On seasonal debut, she finished second to Romantic Style who was a close fourth in the French 1000 Guineas on her next start. Tamfana was also back in third who caught eye-catcher subsequently in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas and then finished third in the Group 1 Prix de Diane.
As a two-year-old, she nearly beat Vandeek in the Group 1 Prix Morny (on ground that wasn’t preferable) and she also beat His Majesty by four lengths in the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin.
On her second career start, Beauvatier just got the better of her in a standard conditions race, but that form is better than some people realise and he ended the season by finishing third to Rosallion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.
With a fast ground favouring pedigree (her dam, Raven’s Lady, won a firm ground race), the conditions at Ascot will suit and I think she might finally get her day in the sun today.
5:05 Ascot – Soprano @ 16/1 with Boyle Sports (5 places) – 1pt EW
In what is my only handicap play of the day, I can see why Soprano has received a bit of market support over the last 24 hours.
She has a mark of 100 to overcome, but that rating is on the lenient side for a horse of her quality as her form as a two-year-old is the best here.
She finished a staying-on second from a slightly worse part of the track in last year’s Group 2 Albany Stakes and both Matrika and Porta Fortuna have franked the form subsequently.
80 #RoyalAscot wins for @FrankieDettori!
Porta Fortuna wins the Albany for Donnacha O’Brien! @Ascot pic.twitter.com/UxjQRcHEaH
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) June 23, 2023
Furthermore, she chased home the very impressive Shuwari and Fallen Angel (Irish 1000 Guineas winner) in the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown before finishing second to Fallen Angel at Newmarket.
Her form slightly tailed off towards the end of her campaign, but she did have six runs as a juvenile and her worst efforts came at the end of that season.
As a three-year-old, she blew the cobwebs off at Chelmsford and then put in a good effort at Musselburgh at the start of the month.
George Boughey has yet to land a winner this week, but she looks like one of his stronger chances of Royal Ascot and her draw in 18 is favourable.
5:40 Ascot – Diego Velazquez @ 4/1 with William Hill (1.5pt Win) & Voyage @ 9/1 with William Hill (1pt EW) (4 places)
I’ve taken a slightly safe route into the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes as both Diego Velazquez and Voyage make plenty of appeal to me.
Starting with the favourite, although he is a classic Ballydoyle ‘hype horse’, he’s starting to mature nicely and his form is arguably the best here.
He beat Capulet on his second start who improved to win the Listed Dee Stakes this season (a race that got a form boost yesterday thanks to Jayarebe) and Deepone finished fourth who completed the season with a success in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes.
Two from two for Diego Velazquez in an exciting finish to the @KPMG_Ireland Champions Juvenile Stakes!
A 1-2 for Ballydoyle with Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore off the mark at @LeopardstownRC 🏇 #IrishChampionsFestival pic.twitter.com/oFr0i2Mb3y
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) September 9, 2023
There are excuses for his efforts in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes and Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club as the ground was heavy on both occasions and with his pedigree (Frankel half-brother to Broome), one can imagine fast ground suits him better.
The form of his fourth in the Group 1 French 2000 Guineas looks solid as Dancing Gemini (2nd) finished a good sixth in the Derby and Henry Longfellow (8th) chased home Rosallion in the St James’s Palace Stakes, so his 4/1 price looks more than fair.
As for Voyage, I think he’s a little bit more unexposed than plenty in here with just that one official run under his belt.
That came at Newbury where he won comfortably, though he got a nice runout when first past the post in the Epsom Derby having unshipped Pat Dobbs at the start.
"That was the point I thought, 'I might have a live hope'."
Ever insightful, Julie Wood explains to @nickluck why she believes Newbury maiden winner Voyage is now a Derby contender 👇#LuckOnSunday | @WorldPool pic.twitter.com/WibybuLhjU
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) May 26, 2024
Considering his Manduro half-sister Plein Air and Majahid half-brother Close Your Eyes both won Listed races, his pedigree looks great, and he is by a better sire in Golden Horn.
Therefore, I want to keep him on my side while also backing Diego Velazquez.
