Best Of Bets

Author: Ashley Symonds

  • Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips | Running back to glory

    Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips | Running back to glory

    Royal Ascot Day 2 is upon us following a great opening day to the royal meeting on Tuesday, one that saw the column finish in profit.

    After the first three selections, we looked slightly up against the ropes, but Israr (the best bet) winning the Listed Wolferton Stakes and Lmay finishing second at 25/1 in the Copper Horse Handicap turned the day around.

    Let’s hope for a bit more success today.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Illinois @ 7/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Similar to fancying Israr yesterday, I think Illinois could have too much for his rivals in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase Stakes.

    The three-year-old by Galileo is regally bred as he is a half to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and King George winner Danedream (who handled quicker surfaces) and is a full brother to the Group 1-placed Venice Beach who also won on good ground.

    Therefore, despite his prior form on heavy and soft ground, a sounder surface at Ascot should suit.

    The Coolmore homebred won on debut and has failed to repeat that feat since, but he was a staying-on second to Ambiente Friendly (the Epsom Derby runner-up) in the Lingfield Derby Trial and the third, Meydaan, has won the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes since.

    Before that, he ran a sound race on dire ground in the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown having finished third in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final start as a two-year-old.

    The form of that race looks good as the winner (Los Angeles) won the Group 3 Leopardstown Derby Trial Stakes on his next start, the fourth (Ramadan) was fifth in the French Guineas, and the fifth (Bracken’s Laugh) finished second in the Listed Dee Stakes at Chester.

    The step up in trip should work and, ultimately, he looks like the best horse in this field.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Running Lion @ 10/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    With my frequently-used ‘forgiving hat’ on, I’m making a case for Running Lion returning back to her best in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes.

    The four-year-old had a muddling season last year as she looked like a world-beater in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes but then failed to recreate that form in four subsequent runs.

    That day, she beat Sumo Sam (a subsequent two-time Group 2 winner) by four-and-a-half lengths on ground officially described as soft, though the time of the race suggests it was slightly better than that.

    Connections tried her over 1m2f on her next two starts, the best effort of which came at Salisbury when second to State Occasion, and then stepped her up to 1m4f for her final two runs of the year.

    At Newmarket in the Group 3 Dubai Stakes, she hung a bit to her left (as she did on her seasonal return in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes this year) and could only manage third, and in the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, she probably found the extended trip on soft ground too much for her.

    Her tendency to hang to her left is interesting as her most notable case of it came at the start of this year.

    Considering she seemed fine when she winning around a right-handed bend at Kempton last year, there’s an argument to suggest that today’s assignment on the Ascot round course might help keep her mind on the job.

    If she does, bits of her form looks better than most of her rivals in this field and her pedigree leans towards better ground, something she gets today.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Streets Of Gold @ 18/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 0.5pts EW

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    The Royal Hunt Cup is a tricky handicap to get a hold of in most years, though I’d happy to take a small chance on Streets Of Gold.

    The four-year-old has contested three handicaps in his career, winning one of them and finishing a good sixth on his latest start in the Victoria Cup over seven furlongs.

    He travelled with a wet sail that day under three-pound claimer Georgia Dobie and the handicapper has dropped him one pound for his effort, a welcome sight.

    Based on his pedigree, it’s fairly remarkable that he’s adapted himself so well to these shorter distances as he comes from the family of Treasure Beach (the 2011 Irish Derby winner), Elidor (a 1m6f Listed winner), and Count Octave (runner-up in the 2018 Group 2 Lonsdale Cup to Stradivarius).

    So, his pedigree suggests that a step up in trip could work out for him, and the form of his third in last year’s Group 3 Jersey Stakes is solid.

    With Charlie Bishop back in the saddle, he can outrun his odds in the Royal Hunt Cup.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Rowayeh @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Kensington Palace Stakes takes place on the straight course for the first time in its history and all of the last three renewals have gone to a four-year-old, serving as a small nod of confidence to Rowayeh.

    The Dubawi filly progressed nicely as a three-year-old as she finished third in her opening race of the season to Silver Lady, a future Group 2 Cape Verdi winner in Meydan.

    After that, she won at Beverley and then won on handicap debut at Sandown, a race that has worked out well as the second (Mystic Pearl) won a Listed race on her next start and finished third in this race last year.

    Following that, her form continued to improve as she finished third at Goodwood to Choisya (now rated 100) in a Class 3 handicap, another race that looks good in the form book as the second (Novus) has improved 21 pounds to a rating of 107 and the fourth (Royal Dress) has improved 16 pounds to a mark of 102.

    One can argue that her final start of the season came at the end of a congested campaign, and there are plenty of positives to take from her seasonal reappearance against the boys at Newmarket when you consider that she needed the run.

    Although she has form on good to soft ground, she is by Dubawi and out of a War Front mare whose relations all preferred soft ground.

    Furthermore, her dam (Alaflaak) is a War Front half to the dam of Baaeed, Hukum, and Naqeeb which is a nice pedigree point.

     

    6:15 Ascot – Pont Neuf @ 10/1 with Bet365 (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The only two-year-old bet I had yesterday didn’t work out too well, but I haven’t lost faith in all juveniles yet as I’m a fan of Eve Johnson Houghton’s Pont Neuf in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes.

    Firstly, it’s worth highlighting Matt Chapman’s interview with Johnson Houghton from Windsor on Monday as her confidence behind this gelding by Cotai Glory was high.

    It’s understandable why, as he is two from two and his success at Salisbury last month was huge.

    On ground that probably wasn’t to his liking, the 24,000gns purchase dug deep and passed rivals to win by three-quarters of a length.

    The second, Kassaya, was in receipt of nine pounds from the winner and is a Nathaniel half-sister to last year’s 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean and the third, Megalithic, franked the form subsequently with a sound effort in the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom.

    Also, if you’re inclined to read into collateral form, Megalithic was second to Teej A in the Woodcote Stakes and Teej A beat yesterday’s Group 2 Coventry Stakes winner Rashabar at Chester in May.

    With a good ground-orientated pedigree, he should relish a return to a sounder surface and the way he moved through his Salisbury win suggests a stiff five at Ascot could play to his strengths.

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day 1 Tips | Baeda’s brother in the last

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day 1 Tips | Baeda’s brother in the last

    Royal Ascot Day 1 is upon us and the excitement levels are extremely high.

    In the lead-up to the royal meeting, the ground was causing a few issues as many forecasts had predicted nearly 20mm of rainfall ahead of the Queen Anne Stakes.

    However, that didn’t materialise and the course has artificially added 5mm onto the straight and round courses.

    So, with quick ground accounted into the studying, here are my plays for Royal Ascot Day 1.

     

    2:30 Ascot – Dolayli @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Queen Anne has many big names to consider.

    Facteur Cheval, Charyn, Big Rock, Royal Scotsman, and Audience all set a good standard, but the one that appeals to me the most is Dolayli who has a different profile from most in the race.

    Of the five-year-old’s last six races, four have occurred on the all-weather, the most recent of which happened in March when he beat Junko by five lengths.

    Admittedly, Junko was having his first run for 89 days, but he won the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase and Group 1 Grosser Preis von Bayern in the space of a month prior to that reappearance which is a solid standard of form.

    Furthermore, Junko won the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly at the start of this month to further frank the form.

    In Dolayli’s two runs subsequently, he finished third in the Group 2 Prix du Muguet and then improved to finish fourth in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan.

    As for the strength of that piece of form, the winner (Mqse De Sevigne) was third in last season’s Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes and won two other Group 1 contests before that, the second (Horizon Dore) chased home King Of Steel in the 2023 Group 1 Champion Stakes, and the third (Haya Zark) had just won the Group 1 Prix Ganay.

    Furthermore, the fifth (Blue Rose Cen) won three Group 1s last season and the sixth (Marhaba Ya Sanafi) won the Group 3 Prix Bertrand du Breuil recently.

    Finally, just to add to his case, his pedigree is ludicrous on paper.

    His dam (Dolniya) won the 2015 Group 1 Sheema Classic and he is by the super-sire Siyouni.

    A strongly-run straight mile should suit and he’ll appreciate the faster ground.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Cowardofthecounty @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’m not one to bet in two-year-old races too often, but Cowardofthecounty produced a performance so striking on debut that is hard to ignore.

    His win at the end of April came on soft to heavy ground, but he put two-and-a-half lengths between himself and Whistlejacket (Aidan O’Brien’s full brother to Little Big Bear) who franked the form on his next start as he won the Listed First Flier Stakes.

    Will he like the fast ground? Well, he is by Kodi Bear who produces a fair amount of fast ground horses, his half-brother Cassy O won three times on good to firm, and his grand-dam produced Junia Tepzia, the 2009 Listed Premio Coolmore winner on good ground.

    That pedigree analysis offers a good bit of confidence behind him liking the ground and following his win at the Curragh, Kevin Blake (race planner to Joseph O’Brien) was full of praise on the Betfair Weighed-In podcast.

    Hopefully, he justifies his market position with a nice performance in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes.

     

    3:40 Ascot – Diligent Harry @ 16/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    In the newly-named Group 1 King Charles III Stakes, Diligent Harry looks too big of a price to leave alone.

    Trainer Clive Cox has never shied away from speaking his mind in regards to what he thinks about this six-year-old by Due Diligence, and he’s also backed that up with his recent race planning.

    Connections aimed him at the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint in Meydan in search of some better ground and he delivered for them to finish third in a hot race.

    The winner, California Spangle, was banging heads with Golden Sixty over in Hong Kong at eight furlongs last year, so his level of form is strong, and beating the likes of Slight Success (Lucky Sweynesse form), Casa Creed, and Danyah is admirable.

    As for his UK performances, he beat Annaf over six furlongs at Lingfield last year, form that looks good as the second won the Group 2 1351 Turf Sprint in Riyadh in February.

    He also beat Witch Hunter (subsequent Group 1 Lockinge Stakes third) over six furlongs at Newcastle and the form of last year’s Group 3 Hackwood Stakes looks strong thanks to Cold Case and Shartash.

    Following a good reappearance in the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes last month, Cox is “desperately keen” to run this horse over five furlongs at Ascot and there is a lot to like about his profile.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Israr @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    I’m happy to go out on a limb and say that the Wolferton Stakes is between two horses in my head, though those two horses are well-found in the market.

    Torito is one of them as he was an eye-catcher at Newmarket when third in a nice handicap on his first start for 11 months, but I think Israr could have too much for him at this level.

    The five-year-old by Muhaarar is a solid Group 2 performer who is dropping into Listed company for the first time since his second to Quickthorn, a subsequent six-length Group 1 Goodwood Cup winner, in last year’s Grand Cup Stakes.

    After that, he pumped Adayar in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes and four months later, he chased home Spirit Dancer in the Group 2 Bahrain International Stakes.

    On his most recent start, he gave Passenger (the once Prince Of Wales’s Stakes ante-post favourite) a great race to finish second in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes. He was also backed into the SP favourite that day, which is notable.

    As for his Ascot record, he was second to Al Qareem in the 2023 Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes and also finished third in the 2022 King George V Stakes, so that stat shows he’s fine with the track.

    If he runs up to his bets form, it’ll take a good horse to beat him.

     

    6:15 Ascot – Naqeeb @ 14/1 with William Hill (5 places) & Lmay @ 25/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 0.5pts EW

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    In the finale, I’m taking on the head of the market with two regally bred four-year-olds as Naqeeb and Lmay appeal to me.

    Starting with the former, the Baaeed half-brother has yet to reach the heights of his famous sibling, but pieces of form make him interesting.

    The gelding is rocking first-time cheekpieces, something that is bound to benefit him as he has shown tendencies to hang in his races and William Haggas’ strike rate with first-time cheekpieces is favourable (see tweet below).

    Connections entered Naqeeb into the Gold Cup at this very meeting hoping he would turn into a Group 1 horse, but he bombed out in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup on his latest start, so they have lowered their sights to the Copper Horse Handicap instead.

    However, one can partially see why they thought he may end up in the marquee race of the royal meeting as he finished second to Middle Earth (a Group 3 winner with Melbourne Cup aspirations) on his third career start before bolting up at Kempton in a novice event.

    That form looks good and he is unexposed in handicap company having won on his only delve into this sphere, so Naqeeb is a bet here.

    As for Lmay, the 650,000gns yearling purchase is by Frankel and comes from that lucrative Juddmonte family of Logician, Okeechobee, and Suffused.

    This is her handicap debut as she contested Listed, Group 3, and Group 2 races last season, notably when a close third in the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster.

    Her form with Sumo Sam, One Evening, Tregony, Warm Heart, and Bluestocking is very solid for a horse rated 96 and she’s bound to come on for her run at York in the Group 3 Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes.

  • Sandown Chester, and York Tips | Stand and Guard

    Sandown Chester, and York Tips | Stand and Guard

    Today is the final Saturday to try and build up the bank ahead of Royal Ascot as Sandown, Chester, and York take centre stage.

    Last week, both bets failed to hit the frame, but I’m not losing hope on Jumby as his passage through the John Of Gaunt Stakes wasn’t an easy one, and by the time he had a chance to extend, his chance at winning the race had disappeared.

    He’s entered in a few handicaps at Royal Ascot, so if connections angle him to the royal meeting, he looks like one to keep onside.

    As for this weekend, a few horses have caught my attention, so let’s dive in.

     

    2:40 Sandown – Flora Of Bermuda @ 11/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Having backed Flora Of Bermuda to win the Group 2 Temple Stakes last-time-out, her antics at the stalls saw that betting slip go up in smoke almost immediately.

    However, I’m not losing any hope in her ability as she was a classy juvenile.

    To begin with, she finished sixth in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, though the first five came from the stands’ side and she was positioned on the far side.

    After that, she posted a cracking time at Glorious Goodwood when bolting up by four lengths in a fillies’ conditions stakes and two starts later, she finished second to Big Evs in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes.

    Admittedly, most of her form is on soft ground, but the sprinkling of rain that Sandown has received today should take the sting out of the ground. Her dam, Dubai Power, also won on good to firm ground.

    With race fitness on her side, she gets three pounds from the favourite Adaay In Devon, so she should run well here.

     

    3:20 Chester – Witness Stand @ 15/2 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Sticking with horses that I’ve previously backed, Witness Stand can build on his recent Chester effort over the same course and distance in the valuable Roodee Handicap.

    The three-year-old by Expert Eye was second to the extremely well-backed Never So Brave from a bad stall last-time-out and he has an equally bad draw in 12 to negotiate today.

    However, the current forecasted rain for this afternoon will help his chance and his form in the book looks rock solid.

    Two starts ago, he finished a fair fifth Notable Speech (2000 Guineas winner), a race that has worked out well as the third (Persica) won the Lester Piggott Handicap at Epsom two weeks ago.

    Before that, he was second to Orne (a subsequent Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes runner-up) at Newmarket and as a two-year-old, he finished sixth in a hot renewal of the Group 2 Vintage Stakes.

    With an unchanged mark of 97, he can go well here.

     

    3:35 York – Imperial Guard @ 12/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In one of the more valuable handicaps today, Imperial Guard looks like an interesting contender who has scope to improve on his current rating of 84.

    The three-year-old Night Of Thunder colt is Andrew Balding’s only runner at York today, so connections are hoping the 442-mile round trip provides some success.

    Purchased for 270,000gns as a yearling, he made a good impression on his only two starts as a juvenile as he was third to Orne debut before finishing second to Zoum Zoum (a subsequent Listed Prix Herod winner) one start later.

    On his first start of this season, he quickened up nicely at Kempton to beat Sky Wizard (a horse with solid form alongside Equity Law and Fast Responder) over six furlongs before slightly disappointing next-time-out.

    Most recently, he had to come through horses at Ascot on his turf debut, but he travelled strongly and didn’t have the easiest route through the field.

    He’s likely to build on that effort and the good to soft going description should cause no issues as his full brother (Electric Storm) won this year’s Listed Cecil Frail on soft ground and his dam (Ancestral) put in her best effort on heavy ground.

    With solid form in the book and a nice pedigree (from the family of the Group 1 winner Quiff), 12/1 looks like a fair price for Imperial Guard.

     

    4:45 York – Orbaan @ 16/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    Yes, I’m trusting a bit of a cliff horse in the penultimate race of the day from York as Orbaan has dropped to an attractive handicap mark.

    Admittedly, I backed him in his last race at Epsom hoping he’d return to his best form, but the quality of a Class 2 handicap and running on the outside of the field didn’t suit him too well.

    As such, the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 83, a remarkable rating considering he had a rating of 100 at the start of last season.

    Having won on good to soft at York before (in July 2020), the ground shouldn’t cause any issues and this drop into Class 4 company (with the benefit of a few runs under his belt) can see him return to the winners’ enclosure.

  • Haydock John Of Gaunt Stakes Day | Back-to-back

    Haydock John Of Gaunt Stakes Day | Back-to-back

    After the heights of last week’s two days on the Epsom Downs, we have a quieter weekend of action to look forward to as attentions turn to Haydock John Of Gaunt Stakes Day.

    This column is set to have fewer fancies than last week’s pieces, so it feels like a good time to review the profit and loss.

    Despite a late surge in March, we finished that month down by 2.6 points and April didn’t help with a loss of 10.55 points.

    So, as you can see, the column was not in a good place a few months ago, but we finished May in profit by 5.75 points (which could have been 14.75 points if not for a nine-point blowout on Epsom Oaks Day).

    As for June, Epsom Derby Day is the only column of the month so far, but we walked away from Saturday in profit by 21.2 points from 13 points stakes (ROI of 163%), so the overall P&L sits at +13.8 from 214 points stakes at an ROI of +6.43%.

    So, we’re in profit, and let’s hope we can continue to stride on.

     

    3:00 Haydock – Caernarfon @ 22/1 with BoyleSports (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Group 3 Lester Piggott Fillies’ Stakes is interesting as fillies with solid Group-level form are battling against up-and-coming opponents.

    Previous renewals suggest that an RPR of 109-110 is good enough to win this race, so this should give Caernarfon a good chance to bounce back to form.

    On all known form, she is the classiest filly in this race as she kicked off last year with a fourth in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas before stepping up in trip for the Epsom Oaks.

    That was her best performance of last year as she finished a good third behind Soul Sister (Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris third subsequently) and Savethelastdance (Group 1 Irish Oaks winner subsequently).

    She then went to Royal Ascot and finished fifth in a solid rendition of the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes before her fifth-place effort in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.

    Since then, she has underperformed three times, though there are potential excuses for two of them.

    One could argue that her effort in the Listed Upavon Fillies’ Stakes came after a few hard runs and her third in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes this year was her first start of the season.

    I think only Caernarfon herself could explain her last run in the Group 2 Middleton Fillies’ Stakes at York (where she finished last of five, beaten 57 lengths), but I’m giving her the benefit of the doubt.

    Today is her first start at 12 furlongs since the Oaks, and the way she raced over 10 furlongs after the Oaks last year suggests to me that her stamina is no issue.

    I don’t believe that this once-Oaks-placed filly is suddenly gone at the game, so I’m happy to chance her at 18/1.

     

    3:35 Haydock – Jumby @ 10/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    After much deliberation in what is a wide-open John Of Gaunt Stakes, last year’s winner Jumby is my finalised pick.

    Having looked at Pogo and Flight Plan, I went away from them as they are both forward-goers which could set this up for a late-closer.

    Eve Johnson Houghton’s six-year-old by New Bay won this race last year by closing late, though the early pace from the 2023 renewal wasn’t even that quick. Therefore, a stronger pace this year is likely to suit more.

    Admittedly, his draw in stall 11 isn’t ideal, but jockey Charlie Bishop will drop him in behind runners anyway so that slightly negates the effect stall 11 will have on his chances.

    As for his form in the book, he finished second to Audience in the Group 2 Criterion Stakes after last year’s win.

    He tried to give three pounds away to the subsequent Lockinge Stakes winner that day, though he was closing all the way to the line and the fourth (Aldaary) finished fourth to Paddington in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes subsequently to frank the form.

    One can imagine that connections have targeted this race and the stable are in fair form (5/27), so he’s my pick in an open-looking contest.

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Star performance in the Derby

    Epsom Derby Festival | Star performance in the Derby

    We started day one of the Epsom Derby Festival in good form yesterday thanks to Teej A in the opener.

    The subsequent fancies failed to pick up money, so let’s hope the Derby Day selections can bring us back up into a profitable weekend.

     

    1:25 Epsom – Whiskey Pete @ 12/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Kicking things off in the opener, Whiskey Pete is a really interesting runner for Ralph Beckett, a stable that is hitting good form.

    The three-year-old by Night Of Thunder cost 180,000gns at the 2023 breeze-up sales and from his five career runs, he was favourite four times, two of those when odds-on.

    The time he wasn’t an SP favourite came on debut at Newmarket, and that race is arguably his best piece of form.

    He finished second to Aablan at Newmarket, now rated 102 having won a Group 3 on his next start, while Magsood finished third that day who won easily at Beverly on his next start.

    Furthermore, Bellum Justum – the Listed Blue Riband Trial winner – was fifth that day, though that probably wasn’t his true running.

    Since then, Whiskey Pete has probably disappointed his connections due to expectations and his price tag, and he even didn’t complete his final start on his first start of the season.

    That was also his first try at 12 furlongs, and while it’s not great that he did pull up, I’m sure that was a blip.

    Due to his pedigree, it’s good to see connections keeping him to this trip as he is a half to the 110-rated Candleford and useful Atty Persse, both of which won 1m4f Royal Ascot handicaps.

    All in all, Whiskey Pete could have a few pounds hidden up his sleeve off 89 today.

     

    2:00 Epsom – Breege @ 7/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the second race of the day, Breege has a good chance to break her losing run in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes.

    Since her debut success at Wetherby in May 2022, she’s 0 from 11 runs which is a worry, but her form looks strong in this type of company.

    In the 2022 Group 3 Keeneland Stakes, she was third to the subsequent Group 1 winner Lezoo and then finished six lengths behind Blue Rose Cen in the 2022 Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac.

    Having run in the Irish 1000 Guineas first-time-out, she gave three pounds away to Coppice when second to her in last year’s Sandringham Stakes, form that looks good as the winner was fifth to Nashwa and fourth to Inspiral in two subsequent Group 1 runs.

    As for her last run, she was on the wrong side of the track at Goodwood when third in the Listed Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes, and she’s likely to come on for that run.

    The slight give in the ground should cause no issues having placed on soft before, though if the track dries out she’ll also handle that.

     

    2:35 Epsom – Royal Scotsman @ 13/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    I almost left this race alone, but by a process of elimination, Royal Scotsman jumps out as one to chance in the Group 3 Diomed Stakes.

    Yes, last season dropped away quality-wise after his third in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, but pieces of his form look attractive in this company.

    Starting with his run in the British 2000 Guineas, he finished ahead of Charyn (placed in this year’s Lockinge Stakes), Noble Style (third to Shaquille in the Carnarvon Stakes), Galeron (fifth in the Irish 200 Guineas), and Indestructible (fifth in the St James’s Palace Stakes).

    Furthermore, his disappointment in the Irish 2000 Guineas came as such a shock to his connections that they sent him for x-rays subsequently. He was also sent off the 6/4 favourite for his stint at the Curragh, a race that included Paddington, Charyn, and Galeron.

    After a pipe-opener in the Lockinge Stakes, the jury is still out as to whether he retains his ability, but Saturday is his best chance to show us all what he is made of, and the slightly softer conditions will suit him.

     

    3:45 Epsom – Dream Composer @ 10/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Epsom Dash is one of my favourite handicaps of the whole year across both the Flat and National Hunt codes.

    This is potentially due to my Tony Carroll-tinted glasses as he won this race in 2014 with the legend Caspian Prince, so it’s a shame that the main man doesn’t have a runner this year.

    As for this year, Dream Composer looks well-treated on last season’s form.

    The six-year-old is one of James Evans’ top horses in the yard and although his last Flat winner came 73 days ago, he’s only had 22 runners in that time, so the sample size on which to base the stable form off is small.

    His current rating of 89 is seven pounds below his last winning mark, and although he’s now a six-year-old, there’s reason to suggest he’s up to 100% fitness now.

    Throughout his career, he takes a few runs to warm up at the start of the season, though he also runs fairly well towards the beginning of the season as five of his eight wins have come in May or June.

    As for last year, he won at Sandown over five furlongs where he beat Korker who then bolted up in a Class 2 conditions stakes, finished second to Emaraaty Ana in a Listed race, and then won a Class 2 handicap at Ascot.

    Three runs later, Dream Composer ran off the same mark (96) and was third in the Shergar Cup Dash. Rogue Lightening, the winner, finished fifth to Highfield Princess in the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye subsequently.

    Joe Leavy keeps the ride, so he takes a valuable five pounds off, and the strike rate between Leavy and Evans is 22%. They also have 11 seconds, four thirds, and seven fourths together.

     

    4:30 Epsom – Dallas Star @ 40/1 with William Hill (0.5pt EW) & Ancient Wisdom @ 6/1 with William Hill (1pt EW)

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    It’s not usually my MO to put up one in early-season Group 1s, especially in Classics when we’re all unsure if certain horses have trained on, but one who has is Dallas Star and he looks overpriced to me.

    Admittedly, his profile isn’t one of a typical Derby winner, but this year’s Derby doesn’t have its usual quality and he made a good impression when he won the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes in April.

    Yes, the Aidan O’Brien runners needed their first runs of the season, but Dallas Star was also having his first run of the season and he beat Illinois and The Euphrates by five-and-a-quarter and three lengths respectively.

    Since then, Illinois was sent off a well-backed 6/4 to beat Ambiente Friendly in the Listed Lingfield Derby Trial (beaten by four-and-a-half lengths) and The Euphrates was eight-and-a-half lengths back in fourth.

    Furthermore, Deepone finished a 10-and-three-quarter-lengths fourth in the Ballysax Stakes which looks like a solid benchmark of form as he won a Group 2 on his final start of last season. He also finished fourth to Capulet (Dee Stakes winner) and Diego Velazquez (French 2000 Guineas fourth) in the Group 2 KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes.

    He has to improve a little bit, but the extra distance and softer ground will help him do that.

    However, I’ll also have something on Ancient Wisdom as he is another that’ll like the softer conditions.

    Firstly, his form when behind Rosallion in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes is rock solid and he was also ahead of Devil’s Point, Diego Velazquez, and Dancing Gemini in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy Stakes.

    He’ll come on for his run in the Group 2 Dante Stakes, so his chance looks good.

     

    5:50 Epsom – Flaming Rib @ 11/1 with BetVictor (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the finale of the Epsom Derby Weekend, I’m taking a chance on Flaming Rib, though his price allows me to do just that.

    The five-year-old comes into this race on the back of a 92-day break, and while this would usually put me off, some of his best runs have come when he was a fresh horse.

    He swooped up £190,000 in the Dukhan Sprint in 2023 after a 140-day break, he finished fourth in the 2023 Group 1 Sprint Cup Stakes after a 56-day break, and he travelled strongly in a Class 2 handicap at Lingfield in March 2024 after a 188-day break before he was stopped in his tracks due to a lack of room.

    As for the ground, he’s won on soft, good to soft, good, and good to firm, so he’s pretty versatile and his mark of 104 is workable.

    If connections have made the conscious decision to target this race in order to have a winner in a decent handicap on Derby Day (which I’m hoping is what has occurred), then he has a good chance here.

  • Epsom Derby Festival | No Mystery On Oaks Day

    Epsom Derby Festival | No Mystery On Oaks Day

    The Epsom Derby Festival holds a special place in the hearts of racing fans worldwide.

    Not only does it include Britain’s richest race, but the unique test of the track is why legends are made and legacies are cemented.

    Galileo, Shergar, Mill Reef, Sea The Stars, Golden Horn, and (most recently) Auguste Rodin have all conquered in the Derby itself, though the weekend kicks off with Epsom Oaks Day.

    Friday’s card at Epsom looks tricky, but hopefully this article helps you decide what you are going to back.

     

    2:00 Epsom – Teej A @ 11/2 with BetVictor (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Woodcote Stakes is a fun race to decipher year-on-year, and the common trend that previous winners all have in common is that they had a win under their belt coming into the £75,000 six-furlong contest.

    All of the last 10 winners had that in their back pocket ahead of the Woodcote, so if you are to believe that stat, that’s an instant negative towards the chances of New Charter and Megalithic.

    One horse that falls in line with that stat is Teej A for Karl Burke and Clifford Lee.

    It’s fair to say that the Nick Bradley Racing Syndicate likes having runners in the Woodcote Stakes; they won the race with Oscula in 2021, sent two to the race in 2022, and then had three contenders one year later.

    This year, they are represented by three, though the market probably has it correct to say that Teej A is the best of the trio based on her Chester win.

    That day, she travelled with plenty of zest, had to wait for room after they rounded the bend, and then kicked clear without the use of the whip from jockey Clifford Lee.

    Lee’s two separate looks around inside the final half-a-furlong also suggest he had plenty of horse underneath him, and the form of the race looks fine as the fifth (Bretton Wood) ran in a hot Newmarket novice stakes on debut and the form of Rashabar’s (2nd) debut race at Newbury looks strong.

    In what is a wide-open race, Teej A has strong claims.

     

    2:35 Epsom – Orbaan @ 9/1 with Bet365 & Benacre @ 12/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW each

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    Charlie Johnston won this race last year with Austrian Theory, and Benacre can add another trophy to the cabinet under the guidance of Richard Kingscote.

    The four-year-old is hard to weigh up on recent form when considering the conditions of the race as connections stepped him up to 1m2f and 1m4f last season.

    Although he ran well on two of those occasions, the gelding by Australia won over seven furlongs three times as a juvenile and he ran into Shoulvebeenaring (a dual Group 1 runner-up subsequently) over seven furlongs in the Listed King Charles II Stakes last year.

    He also finished fourth in the Listed Burradon Stakes over eight furlongs at Newcastle in April 2023, a race that has produced the 113-rated Dear My Friend, 113-rated Flight Plan, 108-rated Galeron, and 104-rated Oviedo.

    So, based on those lines of form, a return to eight-and-a-half furlongs suits him, and his good run in a Class 2 Wolverhampton handicap in March shows his apparent ability.

    However, although I like the chances of Benacre, I can’t let Orbaan go at 9/1 unbacked based on last year’s run in this very race.

    Rated 97 at the time, he ran through the line to finish fourth in the 2023 renewal under James Doyle and he returns to this contest off a 12-pound lower mark.

    We know he can handle a bit of dig in the ground based on his fifth in the 2022 Balmoral Handicap (good to soft) and he’s running himself into form after a good third at Ayr earlier in the month.

    Off a mark of 85, his chance looks obvious.

     

    3:45 – Mysterious Love @ 33/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 0.5pts EW

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    In the race before the Epsom Oaks (which is a watching race for me), I’m happy to have a small-stakes bet on Mysterious Love at the bottom of the market.

    The four-year-old has had just one start in handicap company so far where she finished an eye-catching ninth at Windsor despite racing out the back in a slowly run contest.

    Last season, she bolted up by eight lengths at Nottingham on heavy ground before running two solid races at Ascot and Sandown.

    The former came in the Group 3 Valiant Stakes, a race that has seen the second, Roman Mist, win a Group 3 two starts later before finishing behind Inspiral in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes.

    As for her race at Sandown, running in-and-about the likes of Heredia, Queen For You, Potapova, Novus, Nibras Angel, and Coppice is solid form for a horse who has a rating of just 92.

    Admittedly, she is due to go down three pounds after her run at Windsor, but the slightly softer conditions suit her well and her unexposed profile is worth chancing at big prices.

     

    5:40 Epsom – Hodler @ 14/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Finally, in the last race of the day, Hodler is a horse that the handicapper has given a chance to.

    The five-year-old won a course and distance handicap as a three-year-old off a mark of 80 back in September 2022, though he won off a four-pound higher mark at Chester last year.

    On that occasion, he beat Gorak (who was giving one pound in weight away due to Ryan Sexton’s claim) by two lengths from stall 12.

    That piece of form looks rock solid as Gorak improved to a rating of 105 last season and he ran well in a Newmarket handicap on his last start off 95.

    With an Epsom record of one win and one second, his mark of 81 (and Luke Catton’s five-pound claim) gives him a good chance here and he showed his well-being at Yarmouth when he finished third earlier this month.

    Finally, it’s worth noting that Boyle and Catton have a 22% strike rate together from 55 runners (12 winners) alongside five seconds, five thirds, and seven fourths. To a one-pound level stake, the pair have a profitable partnership of £34.13.

  • Irish 2000 Guineas Day | Storm brewing in the Ocean

    Irish 2000 Guineas Day | Storm brewing in the Ocean

    After a few blockbuster weeks filled with plenty of columns, we are back to regular scheduled viewing with Irish 2000 Guineas Day this weekend.

    Saying that, today’s action would excite even the most pessimistic horse racing fan as there’s something for everyone.

    With a Classic card over in Ireland, competitive racing in Haydock, and interesting contests at both York and Goodwood, what’s not to like?

    So, with this in mind, let’s highlight a few bets for Saturday’s mouth-watering action.

     

    1:30 Goodwood – Al Shabab Storm @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Al Shabab Storm was unlucky not to land the spoils for the column at Chester on his last start, and I don’t want to ditch him here in the opener at Goodwood.

    A few things are different today compared to Chester as this is a Class 2 handicap and over seven furlongs, but the three-year-old by Advertise came close to winning over this distance at Newmarket in September and he’s run well in Listed company before.

    Looking back on the Chester run, he put in some effort despite not winning as he raced out the back for a while and Oisin Murphy made the decision to pull him out to give him a clear view at the line.

    In my mind, Murphy did this as he knew the ability he had underneath him, but this resulted in him coming six-wide into the home straight while the winner had a nice route up the rail.

    A reproduction of that run would see him go close here, and a mark of 90 still looks workable.

     

    1:50 Haydock – Flora Of Bermuda @ 16/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    Backing three-year-old sprinters immediately after their juvenile campaign is always a brave game, but the angle with Flora Of Bermuda is one I can’t ignore.

    The Dark Angel was a sharp filly last year as she nearly won on debut and then finished sixth in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot; she was on the wrong side of the track that day but still finished first of her group.

    That race is a solid piece of form as the winner, Crimson Advocate, finished sixth behind Big Evs in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and the second, Relief Rally, won the Group 2 Lowther Stakes subsequently.

    Speaking of Big Evs, Andrew Balding’s £340,000 purchase was second to the globetrotting superstar in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster in September.

    However, it’s Flora Of Bermuda’s win at Goodwood in August that has caught my attention the most.

    On that day, she bolted up over five furlongs on soft ground on the same day that Big Evs won the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes.

    She carried one pound less than Michael Appleby’s stable star, but her final two furlongs were quicker than that of Big Evs and the overall race times were almost identical.

    This occurred on a day when the ground was constantly worsening due to persistent rain as well.

    Overall, 16/1 looks like a huge price for her in the Group 2 Temple Stakes for all the reasons above.

     

    2:30 Curragh – Ocean Quest @ 12/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    One yard that is in red-hot form currently is the Jessica Harrington team, and I’m hoping Ocean Quest can continue that trend in the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes.

    Firstly, I think an important point to highlight is the ground conditions at the Curragh as the official going is good which places an element of doubt over the favourite, the Curragh specialist Art Power.

    Of his nine career successes, only two have come on good ground and his best recent form has occurred on a slightly slower surface.

    As for Ocean Quest, although she won on heavy at the start of last season, that success was a weird run as the two Aidan O’Brien horses didn’t fire and connections have pulled her from two separate races due to heavy ground.

    Last season, she finished a good fourth in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup behind Shaquille and Little Big Bear (a strong piece of form) and then bolted up in a Group 3 at Naas (the second won a Listed race two starts later).

    Two subsequent runs on soft ground didn’t suit her, but she made an eye-catching return last month when second to Moss Tucker over five furlongs on yielding ground.

    She had no clear passage last time out, though she quickened away smartly when the gap appeared and Shane Foley eased her down once he realised victory was out of the equation.

    She’s likely to come on for that run and the return to six furlongs is a positive.

     

    3:20 York – Trevaunance @ 11/1 with Sky Bet (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Finally, over at York, it’s another Jessica Harrington-trained horse that I’m taking a swing on as Trevaunance is a very interesting contender in the Group 3 Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes.

    The five-year-old steps up to 1m6f for the first time today, and although that is an unknown, there’s not much to suggest she won’t get this new trip.

    Once you get around that barrier, her chance in this company looks strong.

    Out of the 2013 Group 3 Musidora Stakes winner Liber Nauticus, the five-year-old by Muhaarar has always shown ability throughout her career and she has Group 1 form in the book to boast about.

    Last season, she was fourth to Mqse De Sevigne in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet before she finished third in the Group 2 Blanford Stakes.

    Lumiere Rock and Jackie Oh, the 1-2 from the Blanford Stakes, went on to frank the form as they finished third and second respectively behind Blue Rose Cen in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera.

    Even looking back on her form from 2022 is promising as she beat Mqse De Sevigne on two occasions in France.

    Harrington sending one so far for a race away from the main Flat festivals is always worth a second look, and if she takes to this extended trip, she has the form in the book to win this contest.

  • Newbury Lockinge Day Bets | Tempted with a Rally

    Newbury Lockinge Day Bets | Tempted with a Rally

    The fourth and final column of the week focuses on Newbury Lockinge Day after three days of action at the York Dante Festival.

    Yesterday’s bets resulted in marginal profit as both of the each-way plays placed while Gallant Lion failed to hit the frame over at Newbury.

    So, let’s kick on with Saturday’s main bets.

     

    2:25 Newbury – Relief Rally @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1.5pt Win

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    Relief Rally is a horse I grew a strong connection with last season, though Saturday’s better ground over return to six furlongs makes her case obvious here.

    Her outing at Newbury over seven furlongs last month was a fair effort, though she found the extra furlong too much on her first start of the season.

    Her pre-race market support also suggests there was some confidence behind her, and the form looks solid as Elmalka has come out and won the 1000 Guineas since.

    As for last season, she was one of the sprinters of the season and what she did in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes was very impressive.

    Her form is the best in the book, and she gets weight from her rivals, so her 9/2 price looks more than fair.

     

    3:00 Newbury – Individualism @ 10/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    The London Gold Cup is a handicap I look forward to every year and, more times than not, the piece of form is worth following for the rest of the season.

    Although King’s Gambit initially caught my eye, only two horses have won the race on their first start of the season in the last 10 years, so he’ll need to be on his best form to win this.

    With that in mind, Individualism is the horse I’ve landed on who, admittedly, has received recent market support.

    The 10/1 available is still fair for this half-brother to Subjectivist as the step up to 1m2f will suit him down to the ground.

    Having run well at Musselburgh when well-backed, race fitness is now on his side and some pieces of form from his juvenile season are starting to look very attractive

    On his third start, he finished ahead of Kevin Ryan’s Volterra (now rated 91 having won a Class 3 Newmarket handicap off 82) and he then finished his season in a seven-furlong Newmarket handicap.

    From that race, the winner (Zoum Zoum) is now rated 104 after a Listed win in France, the third (Balmacara) is now rated 94 having won two on the bounce subsequently, and the fourth (Economics) has won the Group 2 Dante Stakes.

    Although the Charlie Johnston yard has failed to pick up too many winners recently, their horses are running into form and a bold showing from this well-bred three-year-old can be expected.

     

    4:10 Newbury – Rumstar @ 25/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    A return to better ground and six furlongs will help Rumstar who looks overpriced in the fifth race at Newbury.

    The four-year-old has contested three handicaps in his life, winning one, unseating his rider in another, and then disappointing in his first start of this season on heavy ground over five furlongs.

    Away from his minimal stints in handicap company, he is a high-class animal having won a Group 3 as a juvenile before he finished fifth in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last year.

    That piece of form is particularly strong as Shaquille won the race with Little Big Bear, Swingalong, Ocean Quest, Shouldvebeenaring, Lezoo, and Mischief Magic also in the race.

    He also has form at Newbury as he ran a fair race in last year’s Listed Carnarvon Stakes before a solid sixth in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes.

    Now down to a mark of 102, that seems workable based on his sparks of Group 1 form and he’s had 41 days since his seasonal opener to improve physically.

     

    4:45 Newbury – Tempus @ 28/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Finally, in what is the biggest-priced fancy of the day, Tempus can outrun his odds on his return to the turf.

    The eight-year-old by Kingman has a rock-solid record when running after a break of 50 days or more (three wins, one second, and two fourths from six runs).

    His mark of 99 is his lowest rating for just over three years, and in that time he has won the 2022 Porsche Handicap at Ascot off 103, finished third in the 2022 Royal Hunt Cup off 101, and was a respectable seventh in the 2023 Royal Hunt Cup.

    As for last season’s form, his fifth in the Listed Paradise Stakes looks solid as Chindit was second in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes on his next start, Cash ran well in a hot renewal of the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes, and Lusail was sixth in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes.

    There is a possibility that one eye could be on Royal Ascot for a third tilt at the Royal Hunt Cup, but his mark is too dangerous to ignore on Saturday.

  • York Dante Festival Day 3 Bets | Gallant galloper at Newbury

    York Dante Festival Day 3 Bets | Gallant galloper at Newbury

    It’s the final day of the York Dante Festival today, though it’s the opening day of Lockinge weekend which is one to look forward to.

    Yesterday’s two bets failed to feature, which was a shame, though it’s no secret about how tough York has been this week, so let’s hope today changes.

     

    2:30 Newbury – Gallant Lion @ 5/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I have a long-standing love for Gallant Lion due to his time with Tony Carroll, though even with my Mill House Racing-tinted glasses put to one side, his profile in the second race at Newbury is promising.

    Having won four races on the bounce at four different tracks for four different jockeys last season (has any other horse done this?), the Roaring Lion gelding moved with Alan King over the winter and showed his health over course and distance in April.

    That was a promising run on his first start of the season, and he was certainly an eye-catcher on both the track and in the betting market.

    Looking back on his time for Carroll last season, his crowning moment occurred at Windsor when he won a Racing League handicap under Saffie Osborne.

    I was on track that day and the tactics – much like his previous runs – were to get him plenty of cover and then pick horses off.

    Unfortunately, his powerful stride dragged Osborne to the front far too early, though his pure ability got him out of trouble as he held on to win by a neck.

    He’s a talented horse who deserves to win a big pot at some stage, so hopefully today can help propel him onto better things this season.

     

    2:45 York – Qitaal @ 14/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    Reading previous comments from Charlie Johnston, it’s fair to say that Qitaal is a highly-regarded horse in Kingsley Park and can improve past his mark of 85.

    Firstly, the story of this five-year-old is fascinating as he started his career at Mark Johnston’s before he was sold for 220,000gns during a Shadwell dispersal in 2021.

    He raced just once for Ken Condon before the Johnstons bought him back for just 4,000gns in July 2023.

    After his victory at Doncaster on his first start for 687 days in March 2024, Charlie Johnston (via Racing Post’s analysis) said: “We trained Qitaal as a two-year-old but sadly at the time Shadwell were cutting back and sold all of our horses.

    “I made as strong a case as I could that this was one they didn’t want to be letting go of and when Robert Ng bought him I contacted them and asked if there was any chance this horse could stay with us. We think a lot of him.”

    The full quotes are worth reading, but this is a small snippet that shows how much they think of him.

    Furthermore, he was third in a very hot Haydock novice stakes on debut which makes him well-handicapped here.

    New Kingdom (rated 105) won the race, Dark Moon Rising (once rated 102) finished second and Deauville Legend (rated 111) was in fourth. Although that piece of form is from 2021, his lightly raced profile means it’s still relevant here.

    Finally, today’s faster ground should suit as he is from the family of Matterhorn (Meydan Group 1 winner), Tactic (2010 Group 3 Curragh Cup winner), and The Foxes (2023 Group 2 Dante Stakes winner), all of which loved quick ground.

    So, after that long explanation behind the fascinating Qitaal, I’m chancing him EW.

     

    3:15 York – Spiritual @ 8/1 with Sky Bet (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the Listed Sky Bet Fillies’ Stakes, Spiritual can take a step forward at this new trip.

    The three-year-old by Invincible Spirit comes from a family of stayers; her dam, Wild Irish Rose, won a Listed race over 1m6f and the rest of her extended family stayed further than a mile in time.

    John & Thady Gosden’s €280,000 purchase has raced three times so far, all of which over seven furlongs, though she’s shown ability each time.

    On debut, she did well to catch David O’Meara’s Lokana and James Fanshawe’s Surveyor at Leicester in September 2023 before she ran in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes 17 days later.

    Credit where credit is due, she ran well for a long time in this race, though she became notably unbalanced in the Newmarket dip and faded to finish fourth.

    Still, in a race that included Carla’s Way, Shuwari (Group 1 Fillies’ Mile runner-up) and Ylang Ylang (Group 1 Fillies’ Mile winner and Group 1 1000 Guineas fifth), finishing just five-and-a-half lengths behind them despite a far-from-perfect run is commendable.

    After another run at Newmarket at the start of this season where she again became unbalanced in the dip, she steps up in trip here on a much fairer course.

    Today’s field looks beatable as plenty in here will either need a career-best or will need to show more than they already have, so Spiritual looks like a solid play.

  • York Dante Festival Day 2 Bets | Lighting up the Alley

    York Dante Festival Day 2 Bets | Lighting up the Alley

    Day two of the York Dante Festival is here, so here’s a quick review of day one.

    Chillingham returned EW money yesterday, and he did well to do that in fairness as he found himself out the back of a slowly run race, so his performance deserves plenty of credit.

    The less said about Wahraan the better as he dramatically missed the brake again and Mortlake failed to land a blow, though he still ran well. He’ll come on for that.

    So, let’s dive into day two on what is a tough betting card.

     

    2:15 York – Alligator Alley @ 9/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    Starting in the opening handicap of the day, Alligator Alley is down to a mark that makes him dangerous at a track he has acted on before.

    The seven-year-old is very race-fit thanks to a winter all-weather campaign, one that failed to produce any victories despite some solid runs.

    Because of this, he’s on a mark of 89, two pounds below his last winning mark which occurred in the Racing League when he was a facile winner at Newcastle.

    Furthermore, when he finished second to Equilateral in a York heritage handicap in August 2023, he had a rating of 92, so he’s well-in on that run.

    His rating of 89 is a career-low, so hopefully he makes use of that.

     

    2:45 York – Symbol Of Light @ 25/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    I’m taking a chance in the second race that Symbol Of Light takes to the turf as well as he’s taken to the all-weather.

    The five-year-old sported the silks of Godolphin in his early years, though after an extended break from the track, he joined Julie Camacho under the ownership of Martin Hughes.

    With one turf run so far for Camacho, that occurred after a break on soft Doncaster ground, so a slightly better York surface should suit him better.

    So far for Camacho, he has faced trouble in two of his last four runs, one of which occurred at Kempton in November when behind Choisya (Listed runner-up on her next start) and the other happened at Newcastle when behind Dear My Friend (now rated 16lbs higher).

    Therefore, a more open York track should give him a better chance of coming off the pace and connections have given the son of Shamardal a wind-op in the run-up to this race. He also sports a set of first-time cheekpieces.

    With a turf rating that is five pounds below his all-weather mark, he has a chance to prove himself on Thursday and I hope he can as he deserves to land a good pot.