Best Of Bets

Author: Ashley Symonds

  • York Dante Festival Day 1 Bets | Talented but quirky

    York Dante Festival Day 1 Bets | Talented but quirky

    Saturday’s column covering the action at Ascot and Lingfield regained the losses obtained from Chester last week, so we sit in profit ahead of the York Dante Festival.

    Fair play to the ground staff at York Racecourse for their frequent and detailed updates on the ground, so it looks as if the ground will start on good, good to firm in places.

    Let’s dive in.

     

    2:15 York – Chillingham @ 7/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the opener, there are a few reasons to think Chillingham could run well under Callum Rodriguez.

    Trainer Edward Bethell applies the first-time cheekpieces to his five-year-old by Ulysses today, and based on his recent performances, this should help as he wandered slightly when second at Wolverhampton three starts ago.

    Speaking of that run, that marked his first dive into a 14-furlong race and P J McDonald decided to stride on with him early into the race, so he did well to remain in contention at the line on his first start at the extended distance.

    Prydwen (who has improved 14lbs since) won the race and Zealandia (rated 4lbs higher) finished third; Zealandia beat stablemate Enemy two starts later, a piece of form that looks strong as Enemy beat Military Order (2023 Lingfield Derby Trial winner) at Southwell before finishing second to Tower Of London in the Group 3 Red Sea Turf Handicap.

    The recent rain will help take the sting out of the ground, so he’ll have no excuses in that department, and a mark of 96 is 1lb below the mark he was on when he finished a close second at Ripon in a Class 2 0-105 handicap.

     

    4:15 York – Mortlake @ 8/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    If Ralph Beckett has Mortlake ready to go on his first start of the season, there is a lot to like about his profile in this handicap.

    The three-year-old has to shoulder top weight, but he deserves to based on his juvenile season.

    The 100,000gns purchased bolted up by five lengths at Leicester on his second start of the season before he contested the Group 3 Solario Stakes.

    He came home in fifth that day, beaten just over two lengths, but the third (Devil’s Point) finished second in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes on his next start.

    Furthermore, he shaped nicely behind horses that day and Rossa Ryan had to momentarily stop riding one furlong from home as his mount moved tight to the rail.

    Connections have gelded him since and he drops into handicap company for the first time, so his mark of 96 looks interesting.

     

    5:20 York – Wahraan @ 9/2 with William Hill (6 places) – 2pt Win

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    In the finale, despite his quirky character, Wahraan gets the nod in the Class 4 0-85 handicap.

    The six-year-old has had his fair share of issues so far during his career as he had a total of 786 days away from the track between September 2021 and December 2023.

    However, having started his career with Sir Michael Stoute, the six-year-old by Le Havre is under the guidance of Jamie Osborne and has scope in his mark to improve.

    Firstly, the chestnut gelding once had a rating of 96 – admittedly, in 2021 – but his time on the sidelines and a few poor runs have pushed his mark down to 82.

    On his last start, he wore a hood for the first time and dropped into a Class 4 handicap for the second time, and despite giving up nearly eight lengths at the start, he stayed on past horses to finish a close third.

    That wasn’t the first time he displayed issues at the starting stalls but it was the most pronounced event of his career.

    His actions out of the gates are a concern for today, but he is riddled with talent and he even comes from the same family as Was (2012 Epsom Oaks winner), Douglas Macarthur (2017 Group 3 Leopardstown Derby Trial winner), and Amhran Na Bhfiann (2020 Epsom Derby third).

    All things considered, I’ll give him a chance today.

  • Lingfield Derby Trial Day | King of Ascot

    Lingfield Derby Trial Day | King of Ascot

    After keeping our head above the water through the first two days of the Chester May Festival, I was hopeful that we could head into Lingfield Derby Trial Day in a nice position.

    However, yesterday didn’t go to the script as Boardman stayed on past horses in the opener, Mashhoor went too hard too soon in the Huxley Stakes, and both of the Chester Cup fancies (despite the late support for Too Friendly) failed to fire.

    To round up the day, Chillhi pulled four-and-a-half lengths clear of the third but found the Tony Carroll-trained Oman too good. That hurt.

    So, let’s pick ourselves up and dust ourselves off as here are my main plays for Saturday.

     

    1:30 Ascot – King Of The Plains @ 11/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the opener at Ascot, King Of The Plains holds plenty of intrigue on his first start for James Horton.

    Starting with his form, he ran into Banderas (a horse who was third to Saint George and Sweet William at Southwell in April 2023) at Chester on his debut before a solid second to Ghara when giving weight away.

    The winner that day now has a rating of 93 and finished fourth in the Listed Lingfield Oaks before that race, so that form looks solid.

    By Roaring Lion out of the two-time Group 1 winner Golden Lilac, he is entitled to improve massively now he is a four-year-old as he didn’t race at two and he looks like a big-framed gelding.

    However, one of the more interesting things is the fact that Qatar Racing sold him 47,000gns at the Tattersalls HIT Sale in October, though David Redvers – the racing manager to Qatar Racing – is still one of the part-owners.

    Redvers is also the racing manager to David Howden, one of the other part-owners, and today is the day that Oisin Murphy (one of the retained riders for Qatar Racing) is having his first ride for Horton.

    I’ll give a quick word to Tony Calvin who highlighted this first in his Betfair Racing column. He worked this all out and I’m just passing on the information here, but this is all very interesting nonetheless.

    Off a mark of 82, he should have some improvement to come and today’s assignment looks like an ideal place to start that progress.

     

    2:05 Ascot – Strong Impact @ 11/2 with SkyBet (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    Moving onto the second race at Ascot, Strong Impact is a horse that can improve past her mark of 81 in this £45,000 fillies’ handicap.

    The four-year-old by Saxon Warrior had a decent three-year-old campaign as she ran into Infinite Cosmos – the Group 3 Musidora Stakes third – on her second career start before a good second over 1m4f at Newmarket.

    That race got a form boost when Sumo Sam won the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster and even the fourth, Marmara Sea, won a handicap off 75 at Haydock in September.

    Since then, she bolted up at Epsom in a race she was entitled to win (though she clocked some fast sectionals this day) and then she blew off the cobwebs at Chelmsford in April.

    Although she’s unsuccessful in two handicap contests, she finished second in the first one at Sandown where she ran into a Sir Mark Prescott horse who had recently stepped up in trip.

    Strong Impact was also boxed in for a while and the winner got the first run on her, so his performance was better than the bare result.

    Back on the turf, the return to eight furlongs is interesting as her dam won on good to firm over a mile, so this change in distance doesn’t put me off.

     

    2:40 Ascot – The Wizard Of Eye @ 7/1 with Bet365 (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the Victoria Cup, the trainer change from Stan Moore to Charlie Fellowes makes The Wizard Of Eye extremely interesting off a career-low mark of 99.

    Still with the same connections as before (minus former trainer Stan Moore), the five-year-old is a Group-level performer who struggled to land a blow last season.

    The Galileo Gold chestnut has had a gelding operation since his last run in September 2023 and he has a good record when fresh as his two best performances on RPRs came when returning from a break.

    He also ran in last season’s Group 1 Lockinge Stakes and he was one of the last to come off the bridle, but Kieran Shoemark found himself in too much traffic, so ninth was the best he could secure.

    The conditions of a Victoria Cup (strong pace, good ground, straight seven furlongs) should play to his strengths and if Fellowes has got any improvement out of him, he has plenty of scope to do damage of a mark of 99.

     

    3:50 Haydock – Indian Run @ 13/2 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    Finally, in order not to make this an Ascot-exclusive betting column, I’m chancing the three-year-old Indian Run in the Listed Spring Trophy Stakes at Haydock.

    Although a three-year-old hasn’t scored in this race over the last 10 years, Holguin nearly won last year’s renewal and Happy Power ran a good race in 2019.

    Comparably, this year’s rendition looks like a winnable race and Indian Run made a good impression at York last year when he won the Group 3 Acomb Stakes.

    He beat Ballymount Boy that day, form that looks good as he won a Listed race on his next start and he was second to Vandeek in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes.

    Furthermore, his debut run has worked out well as the winner, Starlust, finished third in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint behind Big Evs and the second, Array, subsequently won the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes.

    With a few in here wanting slightly softer conditions, he’ll like the quick ground and he gets 12lbs from his elders.

  • Chester May Festival Day 3 | Friendly draw in Chester Cup

    Chester May Festival Day 3 | Friendly draw in Chester Cup

    Day two at the Chester May Festival was a crossbar-hitting day as Witness Stand recovered EW money when second to Never So Brave but Bracken’s Laugh couldn’t reel in Capulet in the Dee Stakes.

    Still, the EW return from Witness Stands’ 18/1 price covered the outlay from the rest of the day by 0.5pts, so let’s roll into the final day of the Chester May Festival.

     

    1:30 Chester – Boardman @ 8/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the opening contest, Boardman is trying to win this race for the first time having finished fifth in the last two renewals.

    Although stall 10 does hinder his chances slightly, the last two renewals occurred on soft and good-to-soft ground, so today’s better ground is a benefit to the eight-year-old by Kingman.

    Down to a mark of 94, he is three pounds below his last winning mark (which came over course and distance) and one pound below his last winning before then (which also came over course and distance).

    Furthermore, this is the time of year to catch him (seven from nine in the month of May) and he’s had a preparation run at Haydock on ground too soft for him to put in a solid effort.

    Jockey Phil Dennis guided him to his last success and he returns to the saddle, so he has a few things in his favour to put in a solid showing here.

     

    3:05 Chester – Mashhoor @ 10/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Although Hamish is an absentee from the Group 2 Huxley Stakes, the contest is a wide-open betting heat and Mashhoor stands out to me at 10/1.

    Johnny Murtagh’s six-year-old by Kingman hasn’t had the easiest career to date as he was late onto the scene as a two-year-old and has only raced 15 times for his age, but he seems as good as ever.

    He won three races on the bounce last season, though the most notable win came in the Group 3 International Stakes at the Curragh where he beat Al Riffa by nearly five lengths while giving five pounds away.

    Although that was Al Riffa’s first start of the season, the runner-up ran into Ace Impact – the subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner – in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano and then finished a close fourth on his seasonal reappearance in the Group 1 Prix Ganay last month.

    After that, Mashhoor went to the Group 2 York Stakes and ran well to finish fifth of five, though only four lengths covered the field and both Alflaila and Royal Champion franked the form in Group/Grade 1 races subsequently.

    Although he finished sixth in the Group 3 Paddy Power Stakes on his last start of the season, it was his first try at 1m4f and he did the donkey work from the front, so it’s easy to forgive him for that.

    With a run under his belt, Murtagh has probably brought him over to Chester for a reason and he holds an entry for the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup.

    If he navigates stall eight well (he’s a natural front-runner, so he could well do this easily), he can outrun his odds.

     

    3:40 Chester – Too Friendly @ 12/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Spirit Mixer @ 20/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 1pt EW both

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    In the Chester Cup, two horses have caught my attention, the first of which is Too Friendly for James Owen.

    Although the majority of his last runs have occurred over obstacles, that doesn’t hinder his chances as Metier won this race last year and he had a similar profile.

    As for Too Friendly, he gets in here off a Flat mark of 89 having won snugly at Kempton two starts ago, though his form over jumps shows he is clearly a good horse.

    As a juvenile, he was fifth in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle behind Brazil and Gaelic Warrior and this season he finished just under three lengths behind Rubaud in a Listed hurdle over two miles.

    Rubaud ran into both Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth after that, so the form looks strong.

    His profile is an interesting one, though so is the profile of Spirit Mixer for the in-form Andrew Balding stable.

    By Frankel out of a Dubawi mare, he finished second to Trueshan in the Northumberland Plate in 2022 off a mark of 97, so his rating of 94 (and Callum Hutchinson’s three-pound claim) make him well-handicapped here.

    He’s had a few issues during his career, but a return to better ground will help and one can imagine this had been a plan.

     

    4:50 Chester – Chillhi @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    In the penultimate race, Chillhi has plenty in his favour at a course he has previous form at.

    The four-year-old had a decent juvenile season in 2022 as he won snugly twice and then ran in the hot £100,000 British EBF 2YO Series Final in October 2022.

    That race produced Streets Of Gold (rated 105), Legend Of Xanadu (rated 98), and Shouldvebeenaring (rated 112).

    As for his three-year-old season, his luck ran out, but most of his runs occurred in Class 3 and Class 2 contests, so today’s Class 4 assignment will be a welcome drop in grade.

    The one time he did contest a Class 4 came over the same course and distance as today from stall six; he made up plenty of ground that day, so the task of stall one is welcomed.

    Finally, his current rating of 78 is eight pounds lower than that day and William Pyle takes off three pounds, making him well-handicapped.

  • Chester May Festival Day 2 | Dreaming of success

    Chester May Festival Day 2 | Dreaming of success

    Action on the Roodee kicked off yesterday, though day 1 at the Chester May Festival ended with sadness after the awful incident involving Hidden Law after the line in the Chester Vase.

    For many, as the Dubawi three-year-old kicked clear from Aidan O’Brien’s Agenda, we looked at his performance and gave him plenty of credit for the effort.

    After all, he was very good at Newbury, it was just whether he could step up to a better grade and transform his form.

    Well, he did, so it was incredibly sad what happened to him moments after the line, and all we can do is give our best wishes to those closely connected to the horse.

    Just a quick line on yesterday’s results from the column; Al Shabab Storm returned place money at 7/1 (though he was unlucky not to win) and Cadogan Place finished fifth of sixth in the Chester Vase.

     

    2:35 Chester – Witness Stand @ 18/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    Kicking off the action in the third race of the day, Witness Stand can outrun his odds back at a course he knows well.

    The three-year-old by Expert Eye won a maiden on debut at the course from stall six of seven before he went straight into Group 2 company for the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

    He did the donkey work that day, but still ran with credit to finish sixth in a race won by Haatem (subsequently 3rd in the 2000 Guineas). Iberian, Mountain Bear, and Son also franked the form subsequently.

    Having finished third on heavy ground behind Orne at Newmarket to finish the season, he blew off the cobwebs at Kempton when fifth to Notable Speech (subsequent 2000 Guineas winner) at the start of last month, something that will put him spot on for this.

    Going from Group and top-class company to a Class 2 0-105 will benefit Witness Stand, so he has a good chance to put in a display here.

     

    3:05 Chester – Bracken’s Laugh @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Something about the performance of Bracken’s Laugh at Chelmsford in April caught my eye, and I’m hoping he continues that progress here at Chester.

    The three-year-old by Zoffany has a strong pedigree behind him as he is from the family of Getaway and Guadalupe, a Group 1-winning mare.

    As for his Chelmsford success, although Capulet probably needed the run and could outrun his odds on Thursday, he beat a race-fit Orne who was sporting first-time cheekpieces.

    The top three in the market deserve plenty of respect, but Bracken’s Laugh gets the nod as his class has the ability to prevail.

     

    4:10 Chester – Dream Harder @ 8/1 with SkyBet (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The form of the Ian Williams stable is moderate at the moment (13% strike rate over the last two weeks) which offers extra confidence behind Dream Harder’s chances in the penultimate race.

    The five-year-old by Muhaarar is highly tried but he also knows how to win having found the winners’ enclosure five times in his last 16 runs since switching to Williams from Jamie Osborne.

    One of those successes came at Chester off a mark of 85, just three pounds below his current rating, and his win that day looked easy at the line.

    Since then, he finished fourth in a Windsor Racing League handicap, a race won by Spirit Dancer, who subsequently won the Bahrain International Trophy and Neom Turf Cup.

    Furthermore, Tiffany (now rated 15lbs higher having won a Listed race in Hanover) and Tregony (a subsequent Listed winner now rated 15lbs higher) filled out the two places ahead of him, and Dream Harder had a troubled passage through the race that day. Even the fifth, Teumessias Fox, won a handicap on his next start.

    As for this season, he finished a staying-on third behind Intinso – an eye-catcher on his latest start in a £100,000 Newmarket handicap – at Wolverhampton before bombing out at Kempton on his last start.

    If you can forgive his last run, he looks to have a solid chance on paper and Jim Crowley gets the leg up.

  • Chester May Festival Day 1 | A Roodee Storm

    Chester May Festival Day 1 | A Roodee Storm

    The Flat season is now well into gear following Punchestown and the Guineas last weekend, and the first day of the Chester May Festival is a good way to mark this changing of the guard.

    After a good amount of time spent talking about three-mile chasers (which is my passion) through the winter, my inner Flat brain is eager to see some rapid sprinters and Classic contenders.

    Chester is a tough place to bet due to the nature of the course, so the volume of fancies through this week won’t match that of the Punchestown Festival from last week.

    Speaking of the final big jumps meeting of the year, this column struggled to kick into gear over the first few days, but a helping hand from Minella Crooner on the final day pushed last week’s P&L to 18.5pts in profit. The overall P&L is slightly lower at 10pts.

    Considering the recent form over the last few months, a positive number in the P&L column is a welcome sight, so let’s not give it all back.

     

    1:30 Chester – Al Shabab Storm @ 7/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Starting with the opener, the Andrew Balding team have hit the ground running this Flat season (23% strike rate over the last two weeks) and that form can continue with Al Shabab Storm.

    The one negative against his name is stall 10, but his form is well above a few in here and he can make use of that if he gets a nice early position under Oisin Murphy.

    The three-year-old by Advertise debuted at Leicester in September 2023, but his best run of the month came 17 days later on much quicker ground at Newmarket when he ran into Accumulate.

    He hung left that day in the closing stages which allowed Accumulate to win, though the form of that race has worked out well as the winner won at Lingfield on his next start and the third, Native Warrior, ran into the subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech at Kempton in April 2024.

    After that, he ran a good race on heavy ground at Doncaster when fourth behind Ballymount Boy, a good yardstick thanks to his form with Vandeek.

    Back to six furlongs is a positive, though his starting gate is the only worry.

     

    3:40 Chester – Cadogan Place @ 15/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Chester Vase is an interesting puzzle to decipher, but the 15/2 price of Cadogan Place is one of great interest.

    The Frankel two-year-old started his career with a victory over Hidden Law at Southwell in late March, and although he got the first run over Godolphin’s Dubawi colt, the ease at which Oisin Murphy travelled through the race was eye-catching.

    On paper, that form looks strong as the runner-up bolted up at Newbury on his next start and is the 5/2 second-favourite in this field.

    After all, that was his first run and it was on the all-weather, so he is entitled to come on for it now on the turf.

    He was well-backed on the day, which is an interesting fact, and he is a full brother to Quadrilateral, the 2017 Group 1 Fillies’ Mile winner who was also third to Love in the 2020 1000 Guineas.

    Considering all of this, I’m happy to chance him at 15/2.

  • Punchestown Festival Day 5 and Newmarket Guineas Best Bets

    Punchestown Festival Day 5 and Newmarket Guineas Best Bets

    It’s the final day of the Punchestown Festival, a week that has certainly had its fair share of varying results.

    As for yesterday, this column managed to get Brides Hill across the line, though there was a bit of bad luck through Flanking Maneuver and Lifetime Ambition.

    Still, with action from Punchestown and Newmarket to look forward to, let’s dive in.

     

    1:15 Newmarket – Heritage House @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW (3 places)

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    Over in the opener at Newmarket, Heritage House gets the allowances from her elders and she has some nice two-year-old form in the book.

    The three-year-old by Dark Angel is out of Global Light, a half-sister to the top sire Mehmas, and she ran in the Listed Nell Gwyn Stakes last month on her first start at seven furlongs, though she was a bit keen and had a troubled passage through the race.

    The Nell Gywn looks like solid form as she stayed on behind the Guineas-bound Pretty Crystal and Dance Sequence.

    Before that, she finished fourth to Romantic Style (Charlie Appleby’s Night Of Thunder three-year-old who beat Ramatuelle in the Group 3 Prix Imprudence) in the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes, a race that also included Adaay In Devon (rated 100) and Navassa Island.

    With two bits of solid form at Newmarket and race fitness in the book, she looks likely to run a big race.

     

    3:05 Punchestown – Neveradullmoment @ 9/1 with SkyBet (1pt EW) & Bowtogreatness @ 28/1 with Bet365 (0.5pt EW) (6 places)

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    Two horses look likely to hit the frame in the second race at Punchestown, the first of which is Neveradullmoment.

    He’s tried three miles once before and ran a good race but was hampered at the second-last fence, yet he still stayed on.

    The step up to nearly four miles can encourage improvement, and he has form behind Intense Raffles (the Irish Grand National winner) and Where It All Began (Grand National Trial winner) from a novice chase at Fairyhouse in January.

    He was also behind owner-mate Perceval Legallois on chase debut over 2m2f and he has form on ground varying from yielding to heavy.

    As for Bowtogreatness, he’s a slightly sentimental bet, but Ben Pauling has made no secret in the regard that he holds him in.

    Although he disappointed in the Kim Muir, the race came just 18 days after his big run in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase which was maybe on the sharp side in hindsight.

    Furthermore, although his recent form comes on decent ground, his novice hurdle form came on soft and heavy ground and there’s no reason to suggest he’ll hate any softening in the surface.

    As for his mark, a rating of 130 is very lenient and Ben Pauling wouldn’t bring him to Punchestown for no reason.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – Minella Crooner @ 25/1 with SkyBet – 1pt EW (5 places)

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    Gordon Elliott’s Minella Crooner has always promised to land a big race over fences, and I’m hoping this theory occurs today.

    The eight-year-old finished second in the 2022 Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival behind this year’s Bet365 Gold Cup winner Minella Cocooner.

    He also split Journey With Me and Kilcruit over 2m4f in a maiden hurdle, two pieces of strong form.

    Since trying his hand over fences, he nearly beat Darrens Hope on his debut over the big obstacles (in a Grade 2 novice chase) when receiving weight before beating I Am Maximus, the 2024 Grand National winner, at Fairyhouse.

    As for this season, a victory over Joyeux Machin set a good tone before he was a fast-finishing third to Jungle Boogie (who was running well in the Gold Cup before a mistake at the third-last) and Classic Getaway in the Grade 3 Savills Chase on New Year’s Day.

    Although his last three outings haven’t made for great reading, a return to a sharper three miles around a course he’s always done well at (won a bumper, won a maiden hurdle, and ran well twice over fences) will suit and the recent rain in the last 24 hours will cause no harm as well.

    For a horse of his quality, a mark of 142 is lenient in this field.

     

    4:50 Punchestown – Kargese @ 13/8 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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    Today is a big day for Paul Townend in his search for the jockeys’ championship, and Kargese looks like one to help him on his journey.

    Although the four-year-old by Jeu St Eloi has raced at the Dublin Racing Festival, Cheltenham, and Aintree, she showed plenty of keenness on her last start which didn’t indicate any chance of her stopping.

    Her form with Majborough and Sir Gino from the two big UK festivals is the best here and I came out of Aintree with serious respect for her ability.

    She gets weight from the geldings, but she is a tough filly and her family tended to handle their races quite well.

     

    5:25 Punchestown – Monbeg Park @ 11/1 with Bet365 – 1pt EW (6 places)

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    Coming into this season, I fancied Monbeg Park to hit the frame at the top level in novice chases, but connections have decided to revert him to hurdles.

    That’s not usually something I’m too keen on, but he didn’t jump with much fluency at Punchestown on his last start and his novice hurdling form is top quality.

    He beat Spillane’s Tower (a subsequent two-time Grade 1 winner) and Uncle Phil (rated 149 over fences) at the Punchestown Festival last year and he was also second to Affordale Fury (the Albert Bartlett runner-up) on his debut over hurdles.

    Having won twice around the track, my theory is connections wouldn’t bring him back this season if he wasn’t spot on because he has had well-documented joint issues in the past.

    Therefore, with a lenient mark of 135, I hope he can outrun his odds.

  • Punchestown Festival Day 4 | A Mighty chance for Brides Hill

    Punchestown Festival Day 4 | A Mighty chance for Brides Hill

    The third day of the 2024 Punchestown Festival began with a brilliant story thanks to Singing Banjo in the La Touche Cup, but the subsequent fatal injuries sustained by Kilbeg King and Sire Du Berlais marred the day.

    Sire Du Berlais was a warrior of a horse – his Cheltenham Festival record speaks for itself – and Kilbeg King was a personal favourite of mine who held plenty of ability and potential. Thoughts are truly with those closest to these horses.

    As for the column, from the three bets put up, we returned profit on the day as Will Do placed in the three-mile handicap hurdle at 33/1.

    I did initially think Buddy One had also returned place money after his run in the Grade 1 Champion Stayers Hurdle, but Home By The Lee collared him for third on the line.

    Still, let’s roll on to the fourth day of the Punchestown Festival.

     

    3:00 Newmarket – Zouky @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    Starting at Newmarket rather than Punchestown, Zouky is worth looking at in the seven-furlong handicap on her second start of the season.

    Having run well over a mile on the all-weather at Kempton last month, she’ll come on for that and will appreciate a return to the turf.

    The four-year-old by Zoustar performed well in Listed company on two occasions last season when clashing with the likes of Queen Aminatu, Potapova, Breege, and Nine Tenths.

    However, it’s not just this form that looks good as she was second off 87 in a Doncaster handicap in September, a race that has seen Dark Thirty come out of and win subsequently.

    Furthermore, Poet Master (the winner) has improved since as shown by his nice handicap success at Newmarket earlier this year off a mark of 100.

    All in all, she has a good chance here back at seven furlongs.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – Flanking Maneuver @ 28/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The first handicap race of the day from Punchestown is very interesting, and a few horses made it onto the shortlist, but Flanking Maneuver is the one I’m siding with at the prices.

    Despite his age of nine, the Beat Hollow gelding is relatively lightly raced due to his 760 days away from the track between January 2021 and February 2023, but he showed his well-being in the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase last year.

    That race has worked out as Mahler Mission would have gone close in the 2023 Grade 2 National Hunt Chase if not for falling and he finished second in the Coral Gold Cup after that

    He has dipped his hoof into Grade 1 company on two occasions this season, one of which in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase where he finished fourth and the other came on his last start in the WillowWarm Gold Cup.

    Arguably, he has excuses for both the runs as in the former, he travelled well but found three miles on bottomless ground a bit tough at the end, and he was badly hampered by a faller on his latest start.

    A rating of 134 is very handy when considering the excuses for his recent disappointing efforts.

     

    4:50 Punchestown – Brides Hill @ 7/4 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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    Regular viewers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel or my X page already know the love I have for Brides Hill, and today is where she gets her preferred conditions.

    She was a non-runner at Cheltenham due to the soft conditions, so a return to a sounder surface will suit her.

    Her ability is apparent, especially on decent ground when going right-handed, and with Allegorie De Vassy’s potential preference for a slower surface, that puts Brides Hill ahead of her in my mind.

     

    5:25 Punchestown – Lifetime Ambition @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    When looking at any hunter chases at the big meetings, class tends to prevail and the nine-year-old Lifetime Ambition is one who still retains that old spark.

    The Kapgarde gelding was a decent performer for Jessica Harrington as a novice and handicap chaser – notably when second to Capodanno in the 2022 Grade 1 Dooley Insurance Champion Novice Chase – but he switched to point-to-points in October 2023.

    Since that switch, four of his last six races resulted in a win and his most recent success came at Cork during an 11-length victory.

    He has form on better ground and he is a quality horse, which is why he should go well on Friday.

     

    7:05 Punchestown – Mighty Bandit @ 18/1 with Bet365 (four places) – 1pt EW

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    Mighty Bandit has a classic profile of a horse I like to back in races like this and the 18/1 available has helped sweeten the deal on why I’m with him.

    The four-year-old by Order Of St George gets six pounds from his elders and is arguably still unexposed as he’s had just three runs, one of which was successful.

    That came on debut at Punchestown when trained by Gordon Elliott as he beat Lark In The Morning by nine lengths, a good piece of form considering Harsh – an impressive handicap hurdle winner earlier in the week – was back in third.

    After that, he went into Grade 2 Mercedes-Benz South Dublin Juvenile Hurdle as the 13/8 favourite but could only manage ninth. Admittedly, that was disappointing, but his wind was seemingly the issue as he had a wind-op soon after.

    Now with Warren Greatrex, he ran in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival on his first start for a while, so he’s likely to come on for that and a return to a sounder surface at an easier track will benefit him.

    He has to bounce back, and that’s why his price is so big, but the time of his Punchestown victory in November stacks up very well against the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle won by State Man (State Man was carrying 12lbs more) and he can outrun his odds.

  • Punchestown Festival Day 3 | The King of Punchestown

    Punchestown Festival Day 3 | The King of Punchestown

    Day 3 of the Punchestown Festival is upon us, and yesterday was a similar story to the previous day.

    The current form certainly doesn’t read well, but the good run of High Class Hero offers some encouragement that not everything I touch is performing horrendously.

    So, let’s see if a change in fortune can occur.

     

    6:00 Punchestown – Buddy One @ 9/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Buddy One has done me proud this season with two valiant efforts at Cheltenham and Aintree, though a few may question how ready he’ll be for Punchestown after those two hard races.

    Admittedly, this is a worry, but he had a long break prior to Cheltenham and trainer Paul Gilligan believes he’s a better horse on a sounder surface, something he’s likely to get.

    Furthermore, a look through his form book shows how well he comes out of his races. For example, he had five races between January 28th 2023 and April 14th 2023 (76 days).

    He’s a solid horse and I think Jack Gilligan kicked for home a little too early at Aintree which resulted in his four-length defeat.

    If a few ahead of him in the market disappoint, he’s a likely type to pounce on that.

     

    6:35 Punchestown – Kilbeg King @ 12/1 with Bet365 & Will Do @ 33/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) – 1pt EW for both

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    Anthony Honeyball won this race last year with Kilbeg King and the Doyen gelding is returning for another go off an 8lb higher mark.

    Despite that rise, he deserves the hike based on his win in this race last year. His performances over fences this season also offer encouragement as his third to Il Est Francais in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase and second to Henry’s Friend in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase are good pieces of form.

    Despite his lackluster performance in handicap company last time out, his jumping let him down over fences, so returning to hurdles will help him massively.

    As for Will Do, he’s a horse I backed at Fairyhouse on his last start but to no avail, though a mark of 126 makes him dangerously well-handicapped.

    Danny Gilligan takes over from Carl Millar, so the seven-year-old by Walk In The Park still will benefit from an extra five pounds off his back.

    Something that is different from his last run is the conditions as Thursday’s better ground is a stark difference to the heavy surface he dealt with in March.

    From his bumper days, he showed strong form with Monbeg Park, Fact To File, Western Diego, Tullyhill, and Answer To Kayf, but he was always going to improve for three miles.

    Looking back to his last win at Thurles in November, he gave weight away to beat some nice types in Moon D’Orange and Getaway Charlie on what was yielding to soft ground.

    One could argue that he’s a horse who prefers better ground – Gordon Elliott pulling him out of a handicap hurdle at Naas in February due to unsuitable ground would back this up – and his form on right-handed tracks is promising.

  • Punchestown Festival Day 2 | High Class needs to Answer

    Punchestown Festival Day 2 | High Class needs to Answer

    Yesterday at the Punchestown Festival was a tough day to take as expectations were high for the two handicap chances but both failed to hit the frame and Monty’s Star ran into what looked like a better horse on the day.

    The recent spell wouldn’t offer too much confidence, but let’s hope the second day at Punchestown can start to rectify recent losses.

     

    2:30 Punchestown – Final Orders @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Good horses operate in many different conditions and that philosophy fits the profile of Final Orders as he’s picked up victories over fences, hurdles, and on the Flat during the last 15 months.

    The most recent of these occurred at Bellewstown as he won a handicap hurdle off a mark of 102, a full 20lbs below his current hurdles mark, but his current rating of 122 is still 18lbs below his last winning mark over fences.

    Better ground is what he wants and Gavin Cromwell is applying first-time cheekpieces after a good pipe-opener at Cheltenham earlier in the month.

    For these reasons, I’m chancing him at 8/1.

     

    3:05 Punchestown – Answer To Kayf @ 9/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    If he handles the ground, the claims of Answer To Kayf are obvious and his price of 9/4 looks fair.

    The eight-year-old won a qualifier for this series back in February, and trainer Terence O’Brien told irishracing.com that the final “is probably the main aim”.

    During that qualifier, he beat Captain Conby (a Grade 2 winner since) and some of Wednesday’s rivals including Blizzard Of Oz, Backtonormal, and Any Road.

    Furthermore, he ran a cracker in a Grade 2 novice hurdle back in December, a race that produced the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle winner Stellar Story.

    The form of his Martin Pipe fourth looks solid with the likes of Waterford Whispers, Better Days Ahead, and Quai De Bourbon as the latter bolted up at Ayr on Scottish Grand National Day.

    As for the ground, although most of his form is on the slower stuff, the half-sister to You Wear It Well is out of Annie’s Answer who won a Listed hurdle on good to firm, so his pedigree suggests better ground shouldn’t cause any issues.

    All things considered, he is the most likely winner in my eyes.

     

    3:40 Punchestown – No Flies On Him @ 6/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    At one stage this season, I thought No Flies On Him was a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle horse, and while he never made it to the race, I’m sticking to my guns here.

    On debut, he beat a good field of D B Cooper, Ascending, and Kings Hill, boasting a time that was three seconds quicker than the maiden hurdle won by King Of Kingsfield (No Flies On Him was carrying 5lbs fewer) and seven seconds quicker than the Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle that included Kala Conti and, notably, Kargese (No Flies On Him was carrying 12lbs more than Kargese).

    That’s fairly smart considering Kargese subsequently earned a Grade 1 success at the DRF as well as runners-up medals in both the Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle and Grade 1 4-Y-O Hurdle at Aintree.

    Furthermore, from a form angle, he beat Jango Baie, arguably one of the most exciting British staying novice chasers heading into next year, in a point-to-point.

    On his last two starts, the ground was deplorable which made his rapid drift in the market ahead of the Listed Sheila Bourke Novice Hurdle understandable, so a return to better ground will suit.

    This is backed up when looking at his pedigree as he is by Westerner out of Zalda, a mare who won a good to firm Ripon handicap as well as a good ground novice hurdle.

    At 6/1, his price looks good.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – High Class Hero @ 10/1 with Betfair – 0.5pt EW

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    One of my better bets for the whole Cheltenham Festival came in the form of High Class Hero in the Albert Bartlett, and it’s safe to say the experiment was not a fruitful one.

    The seven-year-old ran too freely, and doing that at Cheltenham is a recipe for disaster, which caused Patrick Mullins to pull him up.

    However, because of the run he got, he comes into Punchestown as one of the fresher horses and prior to his Cheltenham disappointment, he did everything rather easily on the track.

    He has victories on ground varying from good to heavy, though with the way he travels through his races at a high cruising speed, one could argue that a sounder surface suits him better.

    A return to a right-handed track will do no harm as well, so I can envisage a big run from the Sulamani gelding.

     

    4:50 Punchestown – You Oughta Know @ 50/1 with Bet365 – 0.5 EW

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    Finally, over in the bumper, I’m taking a swing on You Oughta Know at a wild price of 50/1 for several reasons.

    Firstly, a return to better ground at Punchestown will see him go much better than his 10th in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, though he did put in a credible effort that day.

    Secondly, his form is beginning to stack up. On debut, he smashed Croke Park (a Grade 3 winner) by 11 lengths when giving five pounds away and then he followed up at Galway to beat Toto Too by two lengths while giving 14lbs away.

    Toto Too, despite his poor effort in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown on Tuesday, won his next two races, finished nine lengths behind Lookaway in the Grade 2 Sky Bet Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, and then danced in on the bridle at Naas in April.

    After that, he beat Redemption Day at Leopardstown in the Grade 2 Future Stars Bumper, though he found Jeroboam Machin too good. This race was one of the better Graded bumpers of the season, and the winner looked electric that day before his injury announcement.

    At 50/1, I can’t let him go off unbacked.

  • Punchestown Festival Day 1 | Monty’s a de Bromhead Star

    Punchestown Festival Day 1 | Monty’s a de Bromhead Star

    It’s the final big meeting of the jumps calendar for 2023/24 as the Punchestown Festival kicks off today.

    It’s sure to be a nice watch this week, and hopefully there are some nice bets as well.

    So, let’s begin.

     

    3:05 Punchestown – World Of Dreams @ 9/1 with SkyBet (7 places) – 1pt EW

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    Anthony Honeyball has a great record at Punchestown – as displayed by Kilbeg King’s victory at the meeting last year – and World Of Dreams can look to continue this streak of form.

    The eight-year-old is relatively unexposed for his age due to an 809-day break between his Plumpton success in January 2022 and his Ludlow reappearance in March 2024.

    Admittedly, there is an element of doubt as to his readiness, but he showed his well-being at Ludlow (he travelled well but didn’t find much late on) and one can assume Honeyball isn’t bringing him over for the Punchestown air.

    Before his setback, he was progressive and finished second to Stag Horn, a future Grade 2 winner, when giving seven pounds away at Hereford.

    By Kayf Tara out of a well-related mare (the dam, Rose Of The World, is a half to the Leinster National winner Pairofbrowneyes and is also a half to the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase winner Master Of The Hall), his pedigree is intriguing and could well have more to offer.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – Samui @ 25/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The Listed Killashee Hotel Handicap Hurdle, like a few of the handicaps at Sandown on Saturday, is competitive, but it hasn’t stopped me from finding a bet at the big prices.

    Samui is the horse I’ve landed on as his profile is very interesting off a mark of 127.

    The five-year-old was campaigned in the summer last season which shows he prefers better ground, so as long as the predicted downpour doesn’t affect the course too much, he should handle the conditions.

    On hurdles debut, he gave eight pounds away to Willie Mullins’ Jit Langy, a horse who went on to run in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival behind the likes of Ballyburn, Slade Steel, Absurde, and King Of Kingsfield.

    After that, he won nicely at Tramore and then gave seven pounds away to Mystical Power (Grade 1 winner rated 148) at Galway when beaten by seven lengths, and he ran a nice race despite a jolting error at the second-last that saw him come immediately off the bridle.

    Although one of his five handicap wins resulted in a win, three of them occurred on ground worse than soft and the form of his one success looks smart as the third, Common Practice, won a Listed handicap on his next start and the fourth, Flamborough, has won twice since.

    Flamborough also beat Jigoro in a maiden hurdle who has good form with Mystical Power and Tullyhill (Listed winner rated 149).

    Without a doubt, this is a pick based on the good form he has in the book, and he should come on for the two runs he had in quick succession in March.

    The quicker today’s ground is, the better his chance gets. NAP of the day.

     

    6:00 Punchestown – Monty’s Star @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    At the Cheltenham Festival, I stuck with Monty’s Star for the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase and he did me proud, so there’s no need to go against him here in what looks like an easier race.

    The seven-year-old’s pedigree speaks for itself; he is a Walk In The Park half-brother to Monalee and a full brother to the progressive Firm Footings, so that’s a big positive in my books.

    His run behind Fact To File at Prestbury Park showed plenty of promise, and he found himself on the outside of the pack for much of the contest which is no easy task on the constantly-turning old course of Cheltenham.

    His form of beating Hiddenvalley Lake in a Grade 3 Novice Hurdle last season looks strong and even his third to Corbetts Cross on his first start of the season over an inadequate trip was a mighty effort.

    If he handles the better ground (which is the reason behind a 1pt win and not a 2pt win), then he should be the best horse in here.