Royal Ascot Day 3 is here and so far, the week has gone well for the column.
Tuesday kicked off with Israr and a 25/1 place returning profit and yesterday continued the good form thanks to Illinois, Running Lion, and EW profit on Rowayeh.
RUNNING LION! 😃
She bounces back to form to win the Duke Of Cambridge under a great ride from @oismurphy.
Highlighted on both the @OFLHracing Live and in the @BestOfBetsUK column.#RoyalAscot
pic.twitter.com/OW4s1rRy5h https://t.co/fYYwTpH8pJ
— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno) June 19, 2024
Let’s hope the rest of the week is more of the same.
5:05 Ascot – Cogitate @ 22/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW
Connections of Cogitate were probably sick when they saw stall one next to their horse’s name for the Brittania Stakes as if he had a better draw, he’d have a brilliant chance in this contest.
The three-year-old by Churchill looked very good on debut at Newbury as he beat Boiling Point, now rated 107, by two lengths under Hollie Doyle who returns to the saddle.
👏 Lots to like about this debut!
105,000gns purchase Cogitate (Churchill) is a taking winner for @cbhills & @HollieDoyle1 at @NewburyRacing pic.twitter.com/OKrqofcZfV
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) July 21, 2023
The form of that race looks strong as even the third, Maximum Dividend, was a head-second to Starlore on debut at Sandown coming into that Newbury contest.
Cogitate disappointed at York in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes, but his seasonal return at Southwell when behind Karl Burke’s Night Raider was promising.
Charlie Hills is looking forward to running Cogitate here, though he has a tough task from his draw. Still, his profile warrants a bet at the prices.
5:40 Ascot – Al Musmak @ 18/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW
The ‘forgiving hat’ provided success yesterday as Running Lion won the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes and I’m using it again today thanks to Al Musmak in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes.
On his seasonal return, he was sent off 4/1 for the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York and finished seventh of seven, though trainer Roger Varian subsequently reported that “his bloods were off”.
His last run is therefore excused and based on his two-year-old form, he has a right chance in this company.
On debut, he won at Ascot over seven furlongs on ground that was on the softer side and he then finished second in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes to Rosallion.
The winner has franked the form massively since, though he also beat Ancient Wisdom (subsequent Group 1 Futurity Stakes winner), Alyanaabi (subsequent Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes runner-up), Dancing Gemini (subsequent Group 1 French 2000 Guineas runner-up), and Sunway (subsequent Group 1 Criterium International winner).
Nice prospect! Al Musmak books his ticket to one of the big end-of-season juvenile contests with a solid victory for Roger Varian and Ben Curtis in the @Betfair Daily Tips at betting.betfair Ascendant Stakes pic.twitter.com/Gi1QeymHVA
— Haydock Park Races (@haydockraces) September 9, 2023
That’s good form, and he also won the Listed Ascendant Stakes on his next start before finishing second in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes on his final start of 2023.
To my eye, he’s wanted a race over further than a mile for a while, so it is a shame we didn’t get to see his full capabilities in the Dante Stakes in May.
However, his pedigree would offer some hope regarding today’s 10 furlongs assignment as his dam, Parton, is a half-sister to the 1m4f winner Boltaway.
Furthermore, his grand-dam (Proviso) won four Grade 1 races in America on firm ground, so he is likely to enjoy today’s faster conditions.
If he recreates any of that two-year-old form today, he could make his 20/1 price look silly.
6:15 Ascot – Alzahir @ 22/1 with William Hill (6 places) & The X O @ 20/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 0.5pt EW for both
In the Buckingham Palace Stakes that concludes the card, I’m taking two chances at slightly lower stakes, the first of which is Alzahir.
The former John & Thady Gosden-trained Sea The Stars gelding has had three runs for David O’Meara, though the best of his runs for his new yard came at Chester on his first start of the season.
From stall eight, he got into a nice position, though he was fairly keen early on and he potentially paid for that in the final stages.
That run showed promise and he’s likely to come on for it, and if he does, his form from the early parts of his career reads well.
Some effort from Brave Emperor 🏇
A gutsy effort from the three-year-old who lands the £60,000 Road to the @KentuckyDerby Stakes under @Luke_Morris88 for @Archie_Watson & @MprUpdates @kemptonparkrace pic.twitter.com/gbG0WiI73D
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) March 15, 2023
He finished second to Brave Emperor in a Kempton conditions stakes in March 2023, form that looks good as the winner has a rating of 114 having won two Group 2s and three Group 3s since. The fourth, Killybegs Warrior, also franked the form in some decent Class 2 handicaps subsequently.
As for The X O, connections stepped him up to seven furlongs on his last start, and I actually thought he handled this new trip well.
He raced on the outside at Epsom throughout most of the race, though when Rossa Ryan delivered his challenge just before the one-furlong pole, he stuck at it well.
Cold Case lands the Commonwealth Cup Trial at @Ascot for @CliffordleexLee and @karl_burke!
Bradsell finishes third on his return to the track… pic.twitter.com/G5uFJoipEh
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) May 3, 2023
Having placed in last year’s Group 3 Commonwealth Cup Trial, he has classy form in the book, and the return to a straight track will help him here.
He’s also likely to relish the good to firm ground compared to the good to soft conditions he experienced on Epsom Oaks Day.
So, off a lenient mark of 95, I’ll chance him here.
