Best Of Bets

Tag: Royal Ascot

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Notes From the Royal Meeting

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Notes From the Royal Meeting

    So another year, another Royal Ascot in the books, and as summer finally arrived on cue in Berkshire, the 2024 Royal Meet delivered and how.

    Once again throwing up big price winners and some expected and unexpected runners defending their crown, what did we learn from the past seven days?

    Lets rewind the clock…

     

    Blockbuster ‘Arc shaping up

    Two of the biggest winners of the Royal meet saw Kyprios and Auguste Rodin both return to glory.

    Regaining the Ascot Gold Cup and winning the Prince of Wales’s Stakes respectively, both could now form a stunning line-up in this year’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

    Currently, 73 runners are pencilled in for the Autumn showpiece, but punters may get quite the showdown.

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    As it stands, Kyprios, Auguste Rodin, City of Troy, Tower of London, White Birch, Continuous and Luxembourg are set to lock horns.

    That would be quite some morsel to chew on.

    Though it may be three months and more away, well after the Olympic circus has left town, Paris could be in for another 2024 hallmark diary date.

     

    Illinois eyeing Irish double

    Elsewhere, Ryan Moore may not have enjoyed the most sterling of Royal Ascots – Kyprios was one of only six wins – but Illinois was a huge fillip.

    Winning the Queen’s Vase by almost two lengths, the 3yo’s 7/4f tag lived up to the billing.

    Big things were expected from the son of Galileo, but winless since a Curragh debut at the end of last term, lingering doubts remained.

    However, lapping up the fast ground to hold off Highbury and the somewhat unfortunate Birdman, Illinois has taken a big career step.

    Trainer Aidan O’Brien is now likely to focus at home, with the potential for an Irish double.

    With the Irish Derby to come this weekend back at the Curragh, there may be a trip to Goodwood sandwiched in, followed by the Irish St. Leger as the big carrot in September.

    A horse who clearly has no qualms over any ground, Illinois could be set for a dominant run.

     

    Khaadem relishing underdog tag

    As 80/1 Rashabar in tow with Billy ‘The Kid’ Loughnane stole the show at Royal Ascot, just perhaps, it was Khaadem who took most headlines.

    Once again an unfancied runner in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, the 8yo gelding lined up to defend the crown and after another patented late surge, overhauled the game ever-consistent Swingalong to win for the second year on the trot.

    Khaadem may have only carried a fourth of his 80s SP from last year, but this was no less a surprise result.

    Ascot is clearly home from home away from his Shadwell Stable, but might trainer Charlie Hills now look to Goodwood for another Glorious trip?

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    Already with a Qatar Stakes and Stewards’ Cup to his name since 2019, the gelding is indeed two trips unbeaten at the West Sussex course.

    Before that however, the July Stakes on home Suffolk turf next month is penned in and with a fifth and fourth record in that race for two previous efforts, his price there will be intriguing.

    To date, he has only one victory on the July course – his second career race back in August 2018. In any event, the rest of Khaadem’s summer looks to be eventful.

     

    Stick with BestofBets throughout the flat season for all the best coverage, tips, and news.

  • Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Well, Royal Ascot Day 5 is here and we have made it to the end of a long week.

    Away from the betting aspect of the royal meeting, I (as well as many) think that Royal Ascot 2024 has succeeded where Cheltenham potentially faltered this year.

    Great field sizes, competitive contests, no odds-on favourites (to my counting), and a great vibe around the place.

    This isn’t to take any shots at the Cheltenham Festival as many know my love and affection for that meeting, but as a jumps man through and through, Ascot (despite multiple days under a beating sun) failed to disappoint in a year where jump racing’s Olympics had a deflating feeling about it.

    Let’s hope this year was a blip for Prestbury Park’s marquee event in terms of the overall enjoyment, though as we all know, a few changes are required to help that occur.

    Anyway, back to what matters, we are rolling into the final day of the royal meeting on the back of a good week for the column.

    Before the Chesham kicks off action today, the column has secured a profit of 22.5pts from 35.5 staked (ROI of +63.4%), so let’s hope we can continue this nice stretch of form.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Candleford @ 12/1 with BetVictor (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The two market favourites – Continuous and Middle Earth – are definitely the ‘sexy horses’ in this line-up, but Candleford appeals to me at the prices.

    The six-year-old by Kingman is race-fit, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old by Heart’s Cry isn’t, and Candleford has a big affection for Ascot.

    He was second (when subsequently disqualified due to Adam Farragher weighing-in light) on his Ascot debut and he then won at Royal Ascot in 2022 in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

    Later in 2022, he finished third to Hamish in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes, form that looks solid as his stablemate has won five Group 3s since and he finished second in the Group 1 Coronation Cup on his last start.

    As for his other form, his victory in the Listed August Stakes at Windsor in August 2023 looks good as the second (Solid Stone) had form with Hukum in 2023, the third (Lion’s Pride) ran to an RPR of 119 in the Listed Floodlit Stakes two starts later, and the fourth (Deauville Legend) was fourth in the 2022 Melbourne Cup.

    Following that, his second to Bay Bridge in the Group 3 September Stakes is another great piece of form as he finished sixth to Ace Impact in the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe subsequently.

    With a winning return under his belt having claimed success at the Curragh 28 days ago (which has seen Sumiha, the second, frank the form by winning the Group 3 Munster Oaks on her next start), one would hope he’ll improve fitness-wise and he’ll enjoy the fast ground.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Swingalong @ 12/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, I can’t ignore the form that Swingalong has in the book.

    The four-year-old filly by Showcasing is a rapid sort who finished third in a good renewal of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup last year.

    The winner (Shaquille) won the Group 1 July Cup Stakes on his next start, the second (Little Big Bear) was a high-class Group 1-winning two-year-old, the third (Ocean Quest) won a Group 3 on her next start, and the seventh (Shouldvebeenaring) placed in two Group 1s subsequently.

    That is rock-solid Ascot form and she also finished fourth on soft ground in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint Stakes on her final start of the season.

    She has winning form on good ground and last year’s appearance at the royal meeting occurred on good to firm, so the quick surface will cause no issues and she blew the cobwebs off at York last month.

    With a solid Ascot record and Group 1 form to fall back on, she seems like a fair bet at 12/1.

     

    4:25 Ascot – Mountain Bear @ 40/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    The Group 3 Jersey Stakes looks like a great contest this year, but Mountain Bear is one I’m interested in at the big prices.

    Many eyes will turn to Aidan O’Brien’s first string, River Tiber, at the head of affairs and he does demand that high level of respect, but the same case occurred last year with The Antarctic and stablemate Age Of Kings won the race instead.

    On last year’s form, he was third to Haatem and Iberian (a highly regarded Charlie Hills-trained horse) in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes on less-than-ideal ground and he finished the season with a great run in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on firm ground when second to stablemate Unquestionable.

    Unquestionable has since finished fourth to Rosallion twice this season, the best of which came in this week’s Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes.

    Mountain Bear is likely to improve for his outing in the Irish 2000 Guineas and O’Brien does have a knack for winning the Jersey Stakes with outsiders.

    Not only did he do it last year, but Mountain Bear’s grand-dam (Song Of The Sea) produced Ishvana who won the 2012 renewal at odds of 20/1 even though the yard had Reply in the contest, a better-fancied runner with good Guineas form in the book.

    Hopefully, something similar can occur this year.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Chipstead @ 40/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Orazio @ 16/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW for both

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    The Wokingham is a tough, tough handicap, but I’m splitting stakes and taking a chance on two horses.

    The first is Orazio who is probably my biggest cliff horse on the Flat as I’ve backed him in all of his last five races.

    To begin with, he was my big ante-post fancy for last year’s Wokingham and he finished sixth when well-backed into an SP of 7/2.

    He ran well that day, and while plenty (including connections) thought he wants cut in the ground, that occurred on fast ground and he didn’t seem to hate it.

    This season, he ran respectably on seasonal debut in a fairly strong renewal of the Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes as the winner (Montassib) finished sixth in the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes subsequently and the fourth (Adaay In Devon) won the Listed Scurry Stakes on her last start.

    My theory is that this horse isn’t a six-furlong horse that contains a rapid turn of foot. Instead, he has the ability to travel at a very high cruising speed and maintain that when it matters late on.

    If Saffie Osborne can position him prominently, I think he might enjoy that more than coming off the pace.

    As for Chipstead, this is slightly a sentimental vote as Jack Doughty takes the ride, but he’s back to a winning mark with good form in the book.

    His last four winning marks came off 97, 97, 102, and 97, so today’s rating of 98 is workable and Doughty’s five-pound claim is a massive bonus.

    He was subject to a big gamble on his last start in the Epsom Dash, but he was caught for a touch of speed, so this return to six furlongs at Ascot will suit.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Palace Green @ 10/1 with Paddy Power (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Richard Hughes yard isn’t in the best form at the moment (one winner from 33 runners), but the horses look like they are running into form and that is enough to give me hope for Palace Green.

    The three-year-old by Sea The Moon has good form in the book as he was third to Dallas Star, a subsequent Group 3 Ballysax Stakes winner, at Bath on just his second career start.

    He kicked this season off with a nice five-length win at Kempton before running well on his first start at 12 furlongs at York.

    It looked as if he didn’t quite stay the trip that day, but he loomed up ominously well for a while, which offers plenty of encouragement that he’s still improving.

    Furthermore, the winner at York was Aidan O’Brien’s London City, a regally bred colt (by Justify out of the Galileo two-time Guineas winner Winter) who was running off a lowly mark of 93.

    This looks like a little bit of a plan by connections and he’s an unexposed horse to side with here.

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Five: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Five: Selections and Naps

    It’s time for the fanciest, fabulous and glamorous week of the year. Royal Ascot returns for the midsummer event of the season. Some big names take to the track to battle it out in front of royalty, dignitaries and punters alike. Who is today’s NAP? Find out below.

     

    Down The Royal River

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    NAP: Jersey Stakes (Group Three) – River Tiber @ 13/8 (Unibet, Boylesports)

    This year’s Jersey Stakes looks a very nice renewal. Haatem, recently purchased by high-flying Wathnan, drops grades and a furlong here. But I think River Tiber will suit over the specialist trip. He finished a good third behind Rosallion in the Irish 2000 Guineas, of which he backed up nicely on Tuesday. Another big plus for River Tiber is the fact that a few of last year’s Royal Ascot winners have won again this week and River Tiber can follow that trend for the evergreen duo of O’Brien and Moore.

     

    History Repeating

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    E/W Bet: Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Khaadem @ 20/1 (William Hill)

    Dr Jim Hay said that both of his horses will run well in this race. Particularly Khaadem, who shocked Royal Ascot at 80/1. A few things haven’t gone right for him since. His run on firm ground was too short over five furlongs, and his runs over six haven’t come on the rattling ground he wants. Today, it’s déjà vu for Khaadem and the market haven’t caught on to it. Pace-wise, he looks like he’s on the wrong side, but he still can’t be ignored at a big price when conditions are in his favour.

     

    Three For The Sprint

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    Handicap Best: Wokingham Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Harry Three @ 9/1 (Unibet)

    Pace is everything in the Wokingham. And much like the Jubilee, it looks like the far side is where you want to be. Yet the better handicapped horses are over on the other side so it makes it a bit difficult when picking a horse in the shorter odds to back. Harry Three seems the better handicapped of the principles. In 2022 he achieved a hattrick of wins from May to July, but came unstuck on the worser ground towards the end of the season. He’s back on firm ground today and has dropped an astonishing six pounds in just two runs.

    Unequal Love sits where the pace is and comes into this race on a decent patch of form. She won her last handicap race at Pontefract before going into open company and winning at Newmarket at the start of the season. She didn’t run too badly at Group Two level at the Curragh last time out and drops back into handicap company. And, she can manage all types of ground which makes her value at 16/1 (Boylesports).

    Desert Cop is still relatively unexposed on firm ground. He has only one run on the fast ground in a big field handicap at Newmarket with a big weight on his back. He wasn’t great over seven furlongs last time, and has a note of inconsistency about him. He’s over on the far side, which makes him near the pace and has a nice weight on his back. Long shot of the race at 25/1 (Unibet).

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed) – Bedtime Story @ 15/8 (William Hill)

    15:05 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group Two) – Continuous @ 2/1 (Unibet), Isle Of Jura e/w @ 12/1 (Unibet)

    15:45 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Shartash @ 7/1 (Boylesports), Washington Heights e/w @ 12/1 (General), KHAADEM (E/W) @ 20/1 (William Hill)

    16:25 – Jersey Stakes (Group Three) – RIVER TIBER (NAP) @ 13/8 (Unibet, Boylesports)

    17:05 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – HARRY THREE (HB) @ 9/1 (Unibet), Unequal Love e/w @ 16/1 (Boylesports), Desert Cop e/w @ 25/1 (Unibet)

    17:40 – Golden Gates Stakes – Old Faithful @ 13/2 (Unibet, Betfred), Approval e/w @ 15/2 (Unibet, Betfred), Dambuster 14/1 e/w (General)

    18:15 – Queen Alexandra Stakes – Queenstown @ 3/1 (General), Uxmal e/w @ 7/1 (General)

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Four: Selections and Naps

    It’s time for the fanciest, fabulous and glamorous week of the year. Royal Ascot returns for the midsummer event of the season. Some big names take to the track to battle it out in front of royalty, dignitaries and punters alike. Who is today’s NAP? Find out below.

     

    Royal Redemption

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    NAP: Coronation Stakes (Group Two) – Ramatuelle @ 9/2 (BetVictor)

    The form of the English 1000 Guineas gets its big test today. The 1-2-3 from the race turn up here, and I’m siding with the unlucky loser of the trio. Ramatuelle did everything right bar win, and was squeezed out on both sides by Porta Fortuna and Elmalka. I think Elmalka is still a bit too inexperienced and will get found out today, Porta Fortuna will want the pace to be quick and I’m still not convinced by Opera Singer’s credentials. Oisin Murphy is having a good week and it makes sense the trainer Christopher Head has booked him.

     

    French Fancy

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    E/W Bet: King Edward VII Stakes (Group Two) – Calandagan @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    This looks like one of the trickiest races to decipher at the Royal meeting this week. Usually a top class race filled with Epsom Derby would-be’s. It makes sense to look for one with a nice price, and I think Calandagan has been unfairly treated. He’s been acting well this season, winning two Group Three’s, but missed the Prix du Jockey Club and elected to come to Royal Ascot instead. Despite racing, and winning, most of his races on French heavy ground, he should be able to handle the firmer conditions through his sire Gleneagles. Voyage, who was technically first past the post in the Derby, is my win bet for the race.

     

    Diamond In The Rough

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    Handicap Best: Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) – Ethical Diamond @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    When Mullins and Moore team up, the stars align. And Ethical Diamond seems to be well-handicapped in this particular contest. His previous flat race saw him nosed off for second by Saturn at Leopardstown. The form from the handicap has since been boosted by both the winner and the third, so has no excuses for a poor showing. He also handles better ground, which may be the reason why his hurdling career didn’t quite go to plan over the Winter.

    Shadow Dance comes into this race fresh. Which to some may be a help, rather than a hinderance. Last time we saw him was back in October, beaten half-a-length by Alsakib in the Old Rowley Cup. Despite a five pound rise in the weights, he seems fairly treated by the handicapper. And a wide stall is another positive when coming down the hill at Ascot. 7/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Deakin is another horse I really respect. A liking for firm ground, and comes into the race off the back of some good performances. He has been raised nearly 20 pounds since his win back in September but has not felt a big pinch by the handicapper when beaten by a neck at the Curragh last time out. Distance winner, ground preference and an outside stall puts him at a nice price of 15/2 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Albany Stakes (Group Three) – Fairy Godmother @ 15/8 (William Hill)

    15:05 – Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Jasour @ 5/1 (William Hill), Starlust e/w @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    15:45 – Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Ramatuelle @ 9/2 (BetVictor), Rouhiya e/w @ 11/1 (General)

    16:25 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes – Ethical Diamond (HB) @ 5/2 (William Hill), Shadow Dance e/w @ 7/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports), Deakin e/w @ 15/2 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    17:05 – Sandringham Stakes – Indelible @ 9/2 (William Hill), Forever Blue e/w @ 12/1 (Boylesports), Asian Daze e/w @ 25/1 (William Hill)

    17:40 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group Two) – Voyage @ 9/1 (General), Calandagan (E/W) @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    18:15 – Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes – Vantheman @ 8/1 (Betfred), Mukaafah e/w @ 11/1 (William Hill), Pilgrim e/w @ 18/1 (William Hill)

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    We’re over the hump as Royal Ascot Day 4 is upon us, and there’s no hiding from the fact that yesterday was tough.

    Stakes were reduced as I thought it was a tough day going into it, and that proved to be right as the four selections didn’t provide any profit.

    We’re still up for the week so far, but hopefully, we can get back on the right track today.

     

    2:30 Ascot – California Dreamer @ 18/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    It’s a small worry that California Dreamer is drifting in the Group 3 Albany Stakes, but if the two-year-old races have taught us anything this week, it’s that juveniles can drift in these markets and still win.

    The Mehmas filly has two runs under her belt having lost at Dundalk on debut when 4/7 and finished third to Fairy Godmother at Naas on her last start.

    On pure form, she is held by the Ballydoyle favourite, but David Egan probably made his move too soon on her when the cutaway opened up which set the race up for the late closers.

    They clocked 42mph and ran three sub-11-second furlongs between the five-furlong pole and the two-furlong pole, and the Amo Racing contender was the one who hit the front three furlongs from home.

    It’s Ascot, so they’re bound to go hard early, but the presence of Wesley Ward’s Burning Pride in stall four should give California Dreamer a nice tow into the race from stall three.

    If so, she has the pedigree to hand (her dam, Penelopa, won the Group 1 Preis Der Diana in 2013 on good ground) and she could outrun her odds.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Givemethebeatboys @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    With the absence of Vandeek and Bucanero Fuerte, the Commonwealth Cup is a wide-open contest, and Givemethebeatboys looks overpriced based on his strong pieces of form.

    The Bungle Inthejungle colt ran at the royal meeting last year and finished behind River Tiber (three-time Group 1 placed subsequently), Army Ethos, and Bucanero Fuerte (Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner subsequently).

    He was also ahead of Haatem who has placed in both the English and Irish Guineas this season.

    Following a good run after a 53-day break in the Phoenix Stakes, he put in a career-best effort when fourth to Vandeek in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, form that looks solid as Starlust (5th) has won a Class 2 handicap off 105 subsequently.

    He defied a penalty to win first-time-out and then nearly beat Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes last month.

    Bucanero Fuerte was my idea of the Commonwealth Cup winner at an ante-post stage, so Givemethebeatboys’ form ties in nicely with him and he seemingly loves quick ground.

    Stall 14 is preferable over the lower draws in a race like this – which casts a small negative over the top of the market – and he has trained on from two to three.

    He looks like Jessica Harrington’s best chance of the week, so let’s hope he delivers for the team.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Ramatuelle @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    The Coronation Stakes is one of the best races of the week, and it’s the Newmarket 1000 Guineas fourth, Ramatuelle, that I like for this.

    Analysing her effort at the Rowley Mile, I’m not the first person to say that she got to the front too soon.

    Aurelien Lemaitre pushed his mount to the front three furlongs from home, and despite hitting an in-running price of 1.01, Elmalka and Porta Fortuna caught her late.

    Although I considered both of these runners as potential horses that could cause her issues, the form Christopher Head’s three-year-old filly by Justify has in the book is hard to ignore.

    On seasonal debut, she finished second to Romantic Style who was a close fourth in the French 1000 Guineas on her next start. Tamfana was also back in third who caught eye-catcher subsequently in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas and then finished third in the Group 1 Prix de Diane.

    As a two-year-old, she nearly beat Vandeek in the Group 1 Prix Morny (on ground that wasn’t preferable) and she also beat His Majesty by four lengths in the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin.

    On her second career start, Beauvatier just got the better of her in a standard conditions race, but that form is better than some people realise and he ended the season by finishing third to Rosallion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.

    With a fast ground favouring pedigree (her dam, Raven’s Lady, won a firm ground race), the conditions at Ascot will suit and I think she might finally get her day in the sun today.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Soprano @ 16/1 with Boyle Sports (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In what is my only handicap play of the day, I can see why Soprano has received a bit of market support over the last 24 hours.

    She has a mark of 100 to overcome, but that rating is on the lenient side for a horse of her quality as her form as a two-year-old is the best here.

    She finished a staying-on second from a slightly worse part of the track in last year’s Group 2 Albany Stakes and both Matrika and Porta Fortuna have franked the form subsequently.

    Furthermore, she chased home the very impressive Shuwari and Fallen Angel (Irish 1000 Guineas winner) in the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown before finishing second to Fallen Angel at Newmarket.

    Her form slightly tailed off towards the end of her campaign, but she did have six runs as a juvenile and her worst efforts came at the end of that season.

    As a three-year-old, she blew the cobwebs off at Chelmsford and then put in a good effort at Musselburgh at the start of the month.

    George Boughey has yet to land a winner this week, but she looks like one of his stronger chances of Royal Ascot and her draw in 18 is favourable.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Diego Velazquez @ 4/1 with William Hill (1.5pt Win) & Voyage @ 9/1 with William Hill (1pt EW) (4 places)

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    I’ve taken a slightly safe route into the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes as both Diego Velazquez and Voyage make plenty of appeal to me.

    Starting with the favourite, although he is a classic Ballydoyle ‘hype horse’, he’s starting to mature nicely and his form is arguably the best here.

    He beat Capulet on his second start who improved to win the Listed Dee Stakes this season (a race that got a form boost yesterday thanks to Jayarebe) and Deepone finished fourth who completed the season with a success in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes.

    There are excuses for his efforts in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes and Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club as the ground was heavy on both occasions and with his pedigree (Frankel half-brother to Broome), one can imagine fast ground suits him better.

    The form of his fourth in the Group 1 French 2000 Guineas looks solid as Dancing Gemini (2nd) finished a good sixth in the Derby and Henry Longfellow (8th) chased home Rosallion in the St James’s Palace Stakes, so his 4/1 price looks more than fair.

    As for Voyage, I think he’s a little bit more unexposed than plenty in here with just that one official run under his belt.

    That came at Newbury where he won comfortably, though he got a nice runout when first past the post in the Epsom Derby having unshipped Pat Dobbs at the start.

    Considering his Manduro half-sister Plein Air and Majahid half-brother Close Your Eyes both won Listed races, his pedigree looks great, and he is by a better sire in Golden Horn.

    Therefore, I want to keep him on my side while also backing Diego Velazquez.

  • Royal Ascot Day 3 Tips | Musmak makes appeal

    Royal Ascot Day 3 Tips | Musmak makes appeal

    Royal Ascot Day 3 is here and so far, the week has gone well for the column.

    Tuesday kicked off with Israr and a 25/1 place returning profit and yesterday continued the good form thanks to Illinois, Running Lion, and EW profit on Rowayeh.

    Let’s hope the rest of the week is more of the same.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Cogitate @ 22/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Connections of Cogitate were probably sick when they saw stall one next to their horse’s name for the Brittania Stakes as if he had a better draw, he’d have a brilliant chance in this contest.

    The three-year-old by Churchill looked very good on debut at Newbury as he beat Boiling Point, now rated 107, by two lengths under Hollie Doyle who returns to the saddle.

    The form of that race looks strong as even the third, Maximum Dividend, was a head-second to Starlore on debut at Sandown coming into that Newbury contest.

    Cogitate disappointed at York in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes, but his seasonal return at Southwell when behind Karl Burke’s Night Raider was promising.

    Charlie Hills is looking forward to running Cogitate here, though he has a tough task from his draw. Still, his profile warrants a bet at the prices.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Al Musmak @ 18/1 with BetVictor (4 places)  – 1pt EW

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    The ‘forgiving hat’ provided success yesterday as Running Lion won the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes and I’m using it again today thanks to Al Musmak in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes.

    On his seasonal return, he was sent off 4/1 for the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York and finished seventh of seven, though trainer Roger Varian subsequently reported that “his bloods were off”.

    His last run is therefore excused and based on his two-year-old form, he has a right chance in this company.

    On debut, he won at Ascot over seven furlongs on ground that was on the softer side and he then finished second in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes to Rosallion.

    The winner has franked the form massively since, though he also beat Ancient Wisdom (subsequent Group 1 Futurity Stakes winner), Alyanaabi (subsequent Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes runner-up), Dancing Gemini (subsequent Group 1 French 2000 Guineas runner-up), and Sunway (subsequent Group 1 Criterium International winner).

    That’s good form, and he also won the Listed Ascendant Stakes on his next start before finishing second in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes on his final start of 2023.

    To my eye, he’s wanted a race over further than a mile for a while, so it is a shame we didn’t get to see his full capabilities in the Dante Stakes in May.

    However, his pedigree would offer some hope regarding today’s 10 furlongs assignment as his dam, Parton, is a half-sister to the 1m4f winner Boltaway.

    Furthermore, his grand-dam (Proviso) won four Grade 1 races in America on firm ground, so he is likely to enjoy today’s faster conditions.

    If he recreates any of that two-year-old form today, he could make his 20/1 price look silly.

     

    6:15 Ascot – Alzahir @ 22/1 with William Hill (6 places) & The X O @ 20/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 0.5pt EW for both

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    In the Buckingham Palace Stakes that concludes the card, I’m taking two chances at slightly lower stakes, the first of which is Alzahir.

    The former John & Thady Gosden-trained Sea The Stars gelding has had three runs for David O’Meara, though the best of his runs for his new yard came at Chester on his first start of the season.

    From stall eight, he got into a nice position, though he was fairly keen early on and he potentially paid for that in the final stages.

    That run showed promise and he’s likely to come on for it, and if he does, his form from the early parts of his career reads well.

    He finished second to Brave Emperor in a Kempton conditions stakes in March 2023, form that looks good as the winner has a rating of 114 having won two Group 2s and three Group 3s since. The fourth, Killybegs Warrior, also franked the form in some decent Class 2 handicaps subsequently.

    As for The X O, connections stepped him up to seven furlongs on his last start, and I actually thought he handled this new trip well.

    He raced on the outside at Epsom throughout most of the race, though when Rossa Ryan delivered his challenge just before the one-furlong pole, he stuck at it well.

    Having placed in last year’s Group 3 Commonwealth Cup Trial, he has classy form in the book, and the return to a straight track will help him here.

    He’s also likely to relish the good to firm ground compared to the good to soft conditions he experienced on Epsom Oaks Day.

    So, off a lenient mark of 95, I’ll chance him here.

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    It’s time for the fanciest, fabulous and glamorous week of the year. Royal Ascot returns for the midsummer event of the season. Some big names take to the track to battle it out in front of royalty, dignitaries and punters alike. Who is today’s NAP? Find out below.

     

    Royal Jacket

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    NAP: Norfolk Stakes (Group Two) – Whistlejacket @ 6/5 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    It might seem a bit foolhardy putting the trust and faith in a two-year-old. But when you are a full brother to Royal Ascot winner Little Big Bear and dominated you’re last win, you have to uphold some reputation. Whistlejacket won by three-and-three-quarter lengths in the First Flier in May. That was on soft ground, but there will be more expected of him now on good-to-firm. Just like his brother, expect plenty of pace and not for catching.

     

    Rane On The Parade

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    E/W Bet: Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – Coltrane @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    On paper, this looks like one of the most competitive renewals of the Gold Cup in recent years. Coltrane, for me, looks overpriced. His record at Ascot reads an impressive 121251. This includes a second in the Gold Cup last year. He’s won on firm ground before, in last season’s Lonsdale Cup. His price is too big, considering Gregory has not landed a big prize since last year’s Queen’s Vase. And, Kyprios is on a vengeance mission against Trawlerman to try and reagin his Royal crown, the latter of which is my pick to land the big prize. But Coltrane will not be far from the frame.

     

    No Need To Ponder

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    Handicap Best: King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Poniros @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Only one race is worth looking at for this contest. The London Gold Cup. And whilst the winner is going up into Group company, the rest show up here. Poniros is the one who comes here looking to uphold the form. It already has by Persica at Epsom and hopefully is the first positive indicator of how good the form is from the race. Poniros should relish the step up in trip after being bred by Golden Horn and looks a good pick at the initial prices.

    Fouroneohfever is on a four timer. Each race he has run this season, he seems to have grown in confidence, if you look at the winning distance. He’s already won over the winning distance of one-and-a-half miles so has got the engine. Despite not winning on firm ground, his sire Too Darn Hot will provide him with that ability. Decent each-way chance at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

    An outsider that may be a little overlooked is City Burglar for Ralph Beckett. He came into this season with a narrow defeat over 10 furlongs at Ayr, which shows he is open to improvement over further. The draw may be a little negative on the inside rail, but Silvestre De Sousa is experienced enough to navigate a way through. 33/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group Two) – WHISTLEJACKET (NAP) @ 6/5 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    15:05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – PONIROS (HB) @ 15/2 (William Hill), Fouroneohfever e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor), City Burglar e/w @ 33/1 (BetVictor)

    15:45 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group Two) – Diamond Rain @ 13/8 (William Hill)

    16:25 – Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – Trawlerman @ 6/1 (General), COLTRANE (E/W) @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    17:05 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Volterra @ 7/1 (Boylesports), Dashing Darcey e/w @ 12/1 (General), Mickley e/w @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    17:40 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group Three) – King’s Gambit @ 13/8 (William Hill, Boylesports), Jayarebe e/w @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    18:15 – Buckingham Palace Stakes – Kings Time @ 12/1 (William Hill), Divine Libra e/w @ 9/1 (William Hill), Billyjoh e/w @ 2/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips | Running back to glory

    Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips | Running back to glory

    Royal Ascot Day 2 is upon us following a great opening day to the royal meeting on Tuesday, one that saw the column finish in profit.

    After the first three selections, we looked slightly up against the ropes, but Israr (the best bet) winning the Listed Wolferton Stakes and Lmay finishing second at 25/1 in the Copper Horse Handicap turned the day around.

    Let’s hope for a bit more success today.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Illinois @ 7/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Similar to fancying Israr yesterday, I think Illinois could have too much for his rivals in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase Stakes.

    The three-year-old by Galileo is regally bred as he is a half to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and King George winner Danedream (who handled quicker surfaces) and is a full brother to the Group 1-placed Venice Beach who also won on good ground.

    Therefore, despite his prior form on heavy and soft ground, a sounder surface at Ascot should suit.

    The Coolmore homebred won on debut and has failed to repeat that feat since, but he was a staying-on second to Ambiente Friendly (the Epsom Derby runner-up) in the Lingfield Derby Trial and the third, Meydaan, has won the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes since.

    Before that, he ran a sound race on dire ground in the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown having finished third in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final start as a two-year-old.

    The form of that race looks good as the winner (Los Angeles) won the Group 3 Leopardstown Derby Trial Stakes on his next start, the fourth (Ramadan) was fifth in the French Guineas, and the fifth (Bracken’s Laugh) finished second in the Listed Dee Stakes at Chester.

    The step up in trip should work and, ultimately, he looks like the best horse in this field.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Running Lion @ 10/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    With my frequently-used ‘forgiving hat’ on, I’m making a case for Running Lion returning back to her best in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes.

    The four-year-old had a muddling season last year as she looked like a world-beater in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes but then failed to recreate that form in four subsequent runs.

    That day, she beat Sumo Sam (a subsequent two-time Group 2 winner) by four-and-a-half lengths on ground officially described as soft, though the time of the race suggests it was slightly better than that.

    Connections tried her over 1m2f on her next two starts, the best effort of which came at Salisbury when second to State Occasion, and then stepped her up to 1m4f for her final two runs of the year.

    At Newmarket in the Group 3 Dubai Stakes, she hung a bit to her left (as she did on her seasonal return in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes this year) and could only manage third, and in the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, she probably found the extended trip on soft ground too much for her.

    Her tendency to hang to her left is interesting as her most notable case of it came at the start of this year.

    Considering she seemed fine when she winning around a right-handed bend at Kempton last year, there’s an argument to suggest that today’s assignment on the Ascot round course might help keep her mind on the job.

    If she does, bits of her form looks better than most of her rivals in this field and her pedigree leans towards better ground, something she gets today.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Streets Of Gold @ 18/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 0.5pts EW

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    The Royal Hunt Cup is a tricky handicap to get a hold of in most years, though I’d happy to take a small chance on Streets Of Gold.

    The four-year-old has contested three handicaps in his career, winning one of them and finishing a good sixth on his latest start in the Victoria Cup over seven furlongs.

    He travelled with a wet sail that day under three-pound claimer Georgia Dobie and the handicapper has dropped him one pound for his effort, a welcome sight.

    Based on his pedigree, it’s fairly remarkable that he’s adapted himself so well to these shorter distances as he comes from the family of Treasure Beach (the 2011 Irish Derby winner), Elidor (a 1m6f Listed winner), and Count Octave (runner-up in the 2018 Group 2 Lonsdale Cup to Stradivarius).

    So, his pedigree suggests that a step up in trip could work out for him, and the form of his third in last year’s Group 3 Jersey Stakes is solid.

    With Charlie Bishop back in the saddle, he can outrun his odds in the Royal Hunt Cup.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Rowayeh @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Kensington Palace Stakes takes place on the straight course for the first time in its history and all of the last three renewals have gone to a four-year-old, serving as a small nod of confidence to Rowayeh.

    The Dubawi filly progressed nicely as a three-year-old as she finished third in her opening race of the season to Silver Lady, a future Group 2 Cape Verdi winner in Meydan.

    After that, she won at Beverley and then won on handicap debut at Sandown, a race that has worked out well as the second (Mystic Pearl) won a Listed race on her next start and finished third in this race last year.

    Following that, her form continued to improve as she finished third at Goodwood to Choisya (now rated 100) in a Class 3 handicap, another race that looks good in the form book as the second (Novus) has improved 21 pounds to a rating of 107 and the fourth (Royal Dress) has improved 16 pounds to a mark of 102.

    One can argue that her final start of the season came at the end of a congested campaign, and there are plenty of positives to take from her seasonal reappearance against the boys at Newmarket when you consider that she needed the run.

    Although she has form on good to soft ground, she is by Dubawi and out of a War Front mare whose relations all preferred soft ground.

    Furthermore, her dam (Alaflaak) is a War Front half to the dam of Baaeed, Hukum, and Naqeeb which is a nice pedigree point.

     

    6:15 Ascot – Pont Neuf @ 10/1 with Bet365 (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The only two-year-old bet I had yesterday didn’t work out too well, but I haven’t lost faith in all juveniles yet as I’m a fan of Eve Johnson Houghton’s Pont Neuf in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes.

    Firstly, it’s worth highlighting Matt Chapman’s interview with Johnson Houghton from Windsor on Monday as her confidence behind this gelding by Cotai Glory was high.

    It’s understandable why, as he is two from two and his success at Salisbury last month was huge.

    On ground that probably wasn’t to his liking, the 24,000gns purchase dug deep and passed rivals to win by three-quarters of a length.

    The second, Kassaya, was in receipt of nine pounds from the winner and is a Nathaniel half-sister to last year’s 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean and the third, Megalithic, franked the form subsequently with a sound effort in the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom.

    Also, if you’re inclined to read into collateral form, Megalithic was second to Teej A in the Woodcote Stakes and Teej A beat yesterday’s Group 2 Coventry Stakes winner Rashabar at Chester in May.

    With a good ground-orientated pedigree, he should relish a return to a sounder surface and the way he moved through his Salisbury win suggests a stiff five at Ascot could play to his strengths.

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Two: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Two: Selections and Naps

    It’s time for the fanciest, fabulous and glamorous week of the year. Royal Ascot returns for the midsummer event of the season. Some big names take to the track to battle it out in front of royalty, dignitaries and punters alike. Whose today’s NAP? Find out below.

     

    Royal Rogue

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    NAP: Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Rogue Millennium @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Despite transitioning over to Ireland, Rogue Millennium is still a little inconsistent. She was hampered in the Lanwades Stud Stakes, trying to go down the inner. She switched to the outside but too late in the day. Today, she isn’t drawn much better in stall two, unlike in stall seven in last year’s race. But she performs on firmer ground, unlike some of her counterparts and she’s best rated in the field. She should, hopefully, have a little more luck in running this time around.

     

    Not A Flailed Shot

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    E/W Bet: Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Alflaila @ 8/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Whilst everyone looks to the top of the market for the race of the day, there’s some value to be had with Alflaila. He won the Group Two Strensall Stakes on firm ground, and it’s clear it’s his preferred ground. He’s relatively unexposed at Group One level, after finishing fifth in the Irish Champion Stakes, but ran best of the rest after the top four battled it out between a length. He’s one of only a few horses that will perform on this sort of ground, and can run well in behind my main pick, Inspiral.

     

    Roaring Success

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    Handicap Best: Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Wild Tiger @ 9/1 (General)

    Only three favourites have won this race, which makes the price of 9/1 all the more appealing. There are plenty of chances for everyone, but drawing up a pace map and looking at the results down the straight course yesterday, there’s an advantage down the outside. Wild Tiger is in amongst it in stall 20. He’s off the back of two wins and is climbing through the rankings. Only six pounds raised from his last run and still very well handicapped, he could be the fourth favourite to win the Royal Hunt Cup.

    I also can’t escape Real Gain. He was disappointing in the Spring Cup on return, but you don’t have to go back far to realise his best performance came on firm ground. He may be feeling the effects of that win in handicap terms, but he has some advantages today. He’s drawn on the far side, which seems to be the trend on the straight course. He can come on from the run from Newbury and William Buick on board is significant. Nice price at 12/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    At a price, Talis Evolvere makes sense. With Joe Leavy claiming five pounds off his mark of 100, he can make a significant impact. The claimer has won on him at Newcastle and finished third with him in the Spring Cup at Newbury. Ryan Moore’s third on him last time out has kept the mark that is ideal for Talis Evolvere, but will have to tack over in the early stages to latch on to the pace. Proper each-way 18/1 (General).

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group Two) – Leovanni @ 8/1 (Unibet), Maw Lam e/w @ 33/1 (General)

    15:05 – Queen’s Vase (Group Two) – Highbury @ 100/30 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports), Mina Rashid e/ w @ 16/1 (William Hill)

    15:45 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – ROGUE MILLENNIUM (NAP) @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    16:25 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Inspiral @ 5/2 (William Hill) ALFLAILA (E/W) @ 8/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    17:05 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage H’cap) – WILD TIGER (HB) @ 9/1 (General), Real Gain e/w @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports), Talis Evolvere e/w @ 18/1 (General)

    17:40 – Kensington Palace Stakes – Doha @ 10/1 (General), Azahara Palace e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill), Villanvoa Queen e/w @ 22/1 (William Hill, 888Sport, Unibet)

    18:15 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) – Hawaiian @ 10/1 (General), Cheval De Guerre e/w @ 20/1 (William Hill), Aviation Time e/w @ 28/1 (Boylesports)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day One: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day One: Selections and Naps

    It’s time for the fanciest, fabulous and glamorous week of the year. Royal Ascot returns for the midsummer event of the season. Some big names take to the track to battle it out in front of royalty, dignitaries and punters alike. Whose today’s NAP? Find out below.

     

    Big Fast Bet

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    NAP: King Charles III Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Big Evs @ 4/1 (General)

    One horse who is an out an out sprinter is Big Evs. He’s currently on a four race winning streak after making light work of the Westow field at York in May. Despite him jumping from Listed to Group One, he is a British Group winner and a Breeders’ Cup winner too. Plus he ran at the Royal meeting last year when he blitzed a 20 runner two-year-old field by three lengths. If anyone can do it, it’s Big Evs.

     

    Royal Honour

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    E/W Bet: Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Symbol Of Honour @ 16/1 (William Hill)

    It looks a very competitive renewal of the Coventry, with plenty of horses with a shout all through the market. Look out for those who have been impressive on firm ground, which includes Symbol Of Honour. A couple of horses have backed up the form, including first choice from the owners Al Qudra. However, Symbol Of Honour caught the eye at Lingfield and a firm six furlongs will suit him to a T. He’s drawn near the rail which is an added bonus.

     

    No Catching The Rat Catcher

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    Handicap Best: Ascot Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Pied Piper @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    It’s a jumper’s summer paradise, which can create Cheltenham winners into Royal Ascot champions. Pied Piper is hoping to fit into that bracket. It’s clear he’ll get the distance and prefers firmer ground when going in the winter. He only finished three-quarters of a length down in the Cesarewitch in September which is a massive plus in my book and doesn’t seem to be that affected by the handicapper raising him four pounds.

    Another firm going jumper is Nusret. He won a Race To The Ebor race last Summer, but was hugely disappointing in the Irish Cesarewitch, due to soft ground. But his run at Punchestown over hurdles gave some promise and it’s clear that Joseph O’Brien will have aimed this horse here. He has a nice weight on his back, and loves going right-handed. Nice each-way chance at 16/1 (William Hill).

    Only Master Milliner has a really good liking for firm ground. He wasn’t great in the 2022 Queen Alexandra, but the proceeded to double up, including winning the Goodwood handicap. Hasn’t been seen since the back end of 2022, though it’s worth-noting why Emma Lavelle has decided he should reappear here. Big ask at 66/1 (General).

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Anne Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Big Rock @ 13/2 (William Hill), Docklands e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill, Unibet, Boylesports)

    15:05 – Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Catalyse @ 12/1 (William Hill), SYMBOL OF HONOUR E/W @ 16/1 (William Hill)

    15:45 – King Charles III (GROUP ONE) – BIG EVS (NAP) @ 4/1 (General)

    16:25 – St James’s Palace Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Rosallion @ 4/1 (William Hill, Unibet, Boylesports), Alyanaabi e/w @ 20/1 (Boylesports)

    17:05 – Ascot Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – PIED PIPER (HB) @ 8/1 (William Hill), Nusret e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill), Master Milliner e/w @ 66/1 (General)

    17:40 – Wolfreton Stakes (Listed) – Israr @ 7/2 (General), Astro King e/w @ 11/1 (Betfred, Boylesports), Checkandchallenge e/w @ 18/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    18:15 – Copper Horse Handicap – Belloccio @ 100/30 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred), Alsakib e/w @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports), Beamish e/w @ 25/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Best of Luck!