Best Of Bets

Tag: Royal Ascot

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day 1 Tips | Baeda’s brother in the last

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day 1 Tips | Baeda’s brother in the last

    Royal Ascot Day 1 is upon us and the excitement levels are extremely high.

    In the lead-up to the royal meeting, the ground was causing a few issues as many forecasts had predicted nearly 20mm of rainfall ahead of the Queen Anne Stakes.

    However, that didn’t materialise and the course has artificially added 5mm onto the straight and round courses.

    So, with quick ground accounted into the studying, here are my plays for Royal Ascot Day 1.

     

    2:30 Ascot – Dolayli @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Queen Anne has many big names to consider.

    Facteur Cheval, Charyn, Big Rock, Royal Scotsman, and Audience all set a good standard, but the one that appeals to me the most is Dolayli who has a different profile from most in the race.

    Of the five-year-old’s last six races, four have occurred on the all-weather, the most recent of which happened in March when he beat Junko by five lengths.

    https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/1766078721205661991

    Admittedly, Junko was having his first run for 89 days, but he won the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase and Group 1 Grosser Preis von Bayern in the space of a month prior to that reappearance which is a solid standard of form.

    Furthermore, Junko won the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly at the start of this month to further frank the form.

    In Dolayli’s two runs subsequently, he finished third in the Group 2 Prix du Muguet and then improved to finish fourth in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan.

    As for the strength of that piece of form, the winner (Mqse De Sevigne) was third in last season’s Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes and won two other Group 1 contests before that, the second (Horizon Dore) chased home King Of Steel in the 2023 Group 1 Champion Stakes, and the third (Haya Zark) had just won the Group 1 Prix Ganay.

    https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/1794727161812959580

    Furthermore, the fifth (Blue Rose Cen) won three Group 1s last season and the sixth (Marhaba Ya Sanafi) won the Group 3 Prix Bertrand du Breuil recently.

    Finally, just to add to his case, his pedigree is ludicrous on paper.

    His dam (Dolniya) won the 2015 Group 1 Sheema Classic and he is by the super-sire Siyouni.

    A strongly-run straight mile should suit and he’ll appreciate the faster ground.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Cowardofthecounty @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’m not one to bet in two-year-old races too often, but Cowardofthecounty produced a performance so striking on debut that is hard to ignore.

    His win at the end of April came on soft to heavy ground, but he put two-and-a-half lengths between himself and Whistlejacket (Aidan O’Brien’s full brother to Little Big Bear) who franked the form on his next start as he won the Listed First Flier Stakes.

    https://twitter.com/ASymondsJourno/status/1787494020790288423

    Will he like the fast ground? Well, he is by Kodi Bear who produces a fair amount of fast ground horses, his half-brother Cassy O won three times on good to firm, and his grand-dam produced Junia Tepzia, the 2009 Listed Premio Coolmore winner on good ground.

    That pedigree analysis offers a good bit of confidence behind him liking the ground and following his win at the Curragh, Kevin Blake (race planner to Joseph O’Brien) was full of praise on the Betfair Weighed-In podcast.

    Hopefully, he justifies his market position with a nice performance in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes.

     

    3:40 Ascot – Diligent Harry @ 16/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    In the newly-named Group 1 King Charles III Stakes, Diligent Harry looks too big of a price to leave alone.

    Trainer Clive Cox has never shied away from speaking his mind in regards to what he thinks about this six-year-old by Due Diligence, and he’s also backed that up with his recent race planning.

    Connections aimed him at the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint in Meydan in search of some better ground and he delivered for them to finish third in a hot race.

    The winner, California Spangle, was banging heads with Golden Sixty over in Hong Kong at eight furlongs last year, so his level of form is strong, and beating the likes of Slight Success (Lucky Sweynesse form), Casa Creed, and Danyah is admirable.

    https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1774066859429576972

    As for his UK performances, he beat Annaf over six furlongs at Lingfield last year, form that looks good as the second won the Group 2 1351 Turf Sprint in Riyadh in February.

    He also beat Witch Hunter (subsequent Group 1 Lockinge Stakes third) over six furlongs at Newcastle and the form of last year’s Group 3 Hackwood Stakes looks strong thanks to Cold Case and Shartash.

    Following a good reappearance in the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes last month, Cox is “desperately keen” to run this horse over five furlongs at Ascot and there is a lot to like about his profile.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Israr @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    I’m happy to go out on a limb and say that the Wolferton Stakes is between two horses in my head, though those two horses are well-found in the market.

    https://twitter.com/ASymondsJourno/status/1787429826397159897

    Torito is one of them as he was an eye-catcher at Newmarket when third in a nice handicap on his first start for 11 months, but I think Israr could have too much for him at this level.

    The five-year-old by Muhaarar is a solid Group 2 performer who is dropping into Listed company for the first time since his second to Quickthorn, a subsequent six-length Group 1 Goodwood Cup winner, in last year’s Grand Cup Stakes.

    After that, he pumped Adayar in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes and four months later, he chased home Spirit Dancer in the Group 2 Bahrain International Stakes.

    https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1679501895038017536

    On his most recent start, he gave Passenger (the once Prince Of Wales’s Stakes ante-post favourite) a great race to finish second in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes. He was also backed into the SP favourite that day, which is notable.

    As for his Ascot record, he was second to Al Qareem in the 2023 Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes and also finished third in the 2022 King George V Stakes, so that stat shows he’s fine with the track.

    If he runs up to his bets form, it’ll take a good horse to beat him.

     

    6:15 Ascot – Naqeeb @ 14/1 with William Hill (5 places) & Lmay @ 25/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 0.5pts EW

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    In the finale, I’m taking on the head of the market with two regally bred four-year-olds as Naqeeb and Lmay appeal to me.

    Starting with the former, the Baaeed half-brother has yet to reach the heights of his famous sibling, but pieces of form make him interesting.

    The gelding is rocking first-time cheekpieces, something that is bound to benefit him as he has shown tendencies to hang in his races and William Haggas’ strike rate with first-time cheekpieces is favourable (see tweet below).

    https://twitter.com/WillHillRacing/status/898926279499567105

    Connections entered Naqeeb into the Gold Cup at this very meeting hoping he would turn into a Group 1 horse, but he bombed out in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup on his latest start, so they have lowered their sights to the Copper Horse Handicap instead.

    However, one can partially see why they thought he may end up in the marquee race of the royal meeting as he finished second to Middle Earth (a Group 3 winner with Melbourne Cup aspirations) on his third career start before bolting up at Kempton in a novice event.

    That form looks good and he is unexposed in handicap company having won on his only delve into this sphere, so Naqeeb is a bet here.

    As for Lmay, the 650,000gns yearling purchase is by Frankel and comes from that lucrative Juddmonte family of Logician, Okeechobee, and Suffused.

    https://twitter.com/FrankelWatch13/status/1462752916666728452

    This is her handicap debut as she contested Listed, Group 3, and Group 2 races last season, notably when a close third in the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster.

    Her form with Sumo Sam, One Evening, Tregony, Warm Heart, and Bluestocking is very solid for a horse rated 96 and she’s bound to come on for her run at York in the Group 3 Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes.

  • York Ebor Festival Day Three: Selections and Naps

    York Ebor Festival Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Keeping the winning momentum at this week’s Ebor meeting, with three winners yesterday. Relief Rally and Warm Heart tipped up in both the NAP and E/W bet landed. Sea Theme made it three in the selections column. Day Three is Fab Friday and the Princess of speed returns to her home track. Is the Nunthorpe going to be hers once again?

    Nunthorpe Nap

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    NAP: Nunthorpe Stakes (Group One) – Highfield Princess @ 6/4 (General)

    Instead of being the winning machine, it took Highfield Princess a few go’s to hit top level. And at Goodwood she did, in some style. This is a race she was always going to come to, given her Yorkshire connections, and she won last year’s race on similar conditions with plenty in hand. Bradsell is her chief rival, and has been given a break since Royal Ascot. But, on previous form this is the part of the season where she begins to shine.

    A Fifth Crack

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    E/W Bet: Gimcrack Stakes (Group Two) – Jehangeer @ 14/1 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    Today we could see a big gamble on Jehangeer. Already been backed in from 33/1 on Thursday, someone knows something about this son of Kodiac and brother to Hello Youmzain. His breeding shows he will like the firm ground, and his form from his last Ayr maiden looks positive too. James Doyle has already bagged a big race at the Ebor Festival yesterday, and Kevin Ryan has picked up a prize too. Ryan has also won this race four times, and if he thinks this horse can make the massive step from class six maiden to Group Two winner, then he has every chance.

    Moore The Champ

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    Handicap Best: Sky Bet H’cap (Heritage) – Marhaba The Champ @ 11/1 (888Sport)

    Marhaba The Champs’ last win came at York in May, on firm ground. He’s just a pound higher than that mark today. Granted, he hasn’t always turned up for his races this season. He steps to a mile-and-a-half which looks a positive on evidence of his win at York earlier in the season. Again Kevin Ryan loves a winner at York, no less the Ebor Festival and he should be in top nick for today.

    Bague D’or is intriguing. Only one five-year-old has won in the last ten years, and was recently too. He’s been off the track since Glorious Goodwood 2022, when he finished behind the Ebor winner Trawlerman. It’s his first run under James Ferguson, and handles both the firm ground and the trip. His mark hasn’t changed since last year, but that’s worked out the handicapping of the race. 9/1 (Betfred, BetUK) is a good price for a horse with a big layoff.

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Sky Bet H’cap (Heritage) – Marhaba The Champ @ 11/1 (888Sport), Bague D’or @ 9/1 (Betfred, BetUK)

    14:25 – Yorkshire Cup (Group Two) – Coltrane @ 11/4 (William Hill), Giavellotto @ 7/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    15:00 – Gimcrack Stakes (Group Two) – Kings Gamble @ 8/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports), Jehangeer (E/W) @ 14/1 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    15:35 – Nunthorpe Stakes (Group One) – Highfield Princess (NAP) @ 6/4 (General)

    16:10 – Fillies’ H’cap (Heritage) – Sirona @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    16:45 – Convivial Maiden Stakes – Castle In The Sand @ 10/1 (888Sport), Sisphyean @ 9/1 (General)

    17:20 – 3-Y-O Mile Handicap (Heritage) – Bajan Bandit @ 15/2 (888Sport, BetVictor), Glenfinnan @ 9/1 (General)

    Best of Luck!

  • York Ebor Festival Day Two: Selections and Naps

    York Ebor Festival Day Two: Selections and Naps

    We are off to a winning start, sort off, at York. Continuous put us in pole position ahead of Paddington. But Frankie had other ideas, and delivered a ride to finally knock Paddington off his perch. Today we focus on the ladies as the Yorkshire Oaks takes centre stage. Aidan O’Brien holds a strong card, and we’ll be delving into more detail below.

    Ready to Rally

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    NAP: Lowther Stakes (Group Two) – Relief Rally @ 2/1 (General)

    Relief Rally raised a few eyebrows when she went to the Weatherbys Super Sprint, instead of going down a group race route. But William Haggas has come to the Ebor and has directed Relief Rally to go down the top level route. She makes the step up to six, but she won’t mind it given her breeding. And, even by her win at Newbury when she just waltzed away from the opposition. Haggas didn’t have a winner at his boyhood track, on his birthday, yesterday but will have his best chance with this daughter of Kodiac.

    Heating Up at York

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    E/W Bet: Yorkshire Oaks (Group One) – Warm Heart @ 6/1 (General)

    Savethelastdance may hog the headlines, but Warm Heart has a real chance going into this. She might not be the number one for Aidan O’Brien but she’s won on firm ground, unlike her stablemate. Her run in the Irish Oaks didn’t suit, namely the ground but it was quite slow. Expect plenty of pace up front and for Warm Heart to pick her rivals off one by one, and may even get the better of her stablemate too.

    O’Meara Of Course

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    Handicap Best: Clipper Logistics H’cap (Heritage) – Orbaan @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    David O’Meara loves a good handicap, whether it’s at Ascot or York. And Orbaan is one of those horses that keeps cropping up in these types of races. He’s been campaigned thoroughly and has found himself dropping to a 5lb lower mark than in last year’s race, where he finished a good fourth. That drop in the handicap, plus ideal ground conditions and drawn next to Spirit Catcher who will want to be prominent, points him as the ideal candidate.

    As I explained in yesterday’s column, Northern trainers love the Ebor meeting. And Ed Bethell looks to have campaigned Point Lynas with this race in mind. His best result this season came over C&D, losing by a head to Croupier. He’s been given a break since disappointing at Royal Ascot which may play into his hands. A career high mark of 96 doesn’t put me off backing him at 12/1 (BetVictor), as he’s finished second twice at York.

    La Trinidad was in my tracker right at the start of the season and has had a very light campaign so far. Only three runs, including a win on firm ground at Doncaster, gives him a mark of 94. But with Jonny Peate claiming three pounds, he’s only on a 2lb higher mark than his previous win of 89. Which came over C&D. He has to overcome an outside draw in stall 20, but drawn next to pace may prove to be a stroke of luck. A nice big price at 28/1 (General)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Lowther Stakes (Group Two) – Relief Rally (NAP) @ 2/1 (General)

    14:25 – Premier Yearling Stakes – Dapperling @ 12/1 (William Hill)

    15:00 – Clipper Logistics Handicap (Heritage) – Orbaan (H’cap Best) @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports), Point Lynas @ 12/1 (BetVictor), La Trinidad @ 28/1 (General)

    15:35 – Yorkshire Oaks (Group One) – Savethalastdance @ 9/2 (General), Warm Heart (E/W) @ 6/1 (General)

    16:10 – Galtres Stakes (Listed) – Sea Theme @ 4/1 (General)

    16:45 – EBF Stallions Nursery – Aragon Castle @ 5/1 (General), Expert Choice @ 6/1 (General)

    17:20 – Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage) – Unequal Love @ 100/30 (General)

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow: Northumberland Plate & Irish Derby

    Four To Follow: Northumberland Plate & Irish Derby

    We’re all on the come-down from Royal Ascot this week, but there is still top-class action to be had. There’s big handicap action up at Newcastle, with the Northumberland Plate the feature on Saturday, and two Group One’s over at The Curragh this weekend. Here are four Best Bets over the weekend.

    KEEP IT BRIEF

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    12:55 – Chipchase Stakes (Group Three) – Brad The Brief @ 4/1 (BetVictor)

    Brad The Brief is making his seasonal reappearance for Hugo Palmer, a little later than predicted. The ground on the all-weather at Newcastle is Standard to slow, which does give an advantage to those horses that prefer it a bit softer on turf. Secondly, his record fresh isn’t bad, winning twice out of five, those two coming in similar contests. He hasn’t run on the UK all-weather since a two-year-old at Wolverhampton. Price represents good value, against a horse who has an excellent record on the All-weather, in Tiber Flow.

    PLATE IT UP

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    14:05 – NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE (Heritage H’cap) – ADJUVANT @ 6/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    The Northumberland Plate is one of those races where you can, more often than not, find the winner. In the past 10 runnings of the race, the biggest priced winners were 33/1 and 16/1. If you head towards the market, you should land on the winner. Which is why I’ve gone with Adjuvant. He’s been kept fresh since winning a class three handicap at Newmarket, and was raised four pounds for that win. He was a regular feature in big three-year-old handicaps last year, being placed in the Melrose his best result. Talented Billy Loughnane gets the leg up, and rode a double at Bath this week, and jockey form like that can’t be ignored. And last time he was at Newcastle, he rode a treble. Step up in trip won’t be a problem, and all-weather should suit, given he’s making his debut on the surface.

    Staying at the top of the shop, Omniscient for the legend that is Sir Mark Prescott can’t be ignored. Makes his reappearance, off the back of a win at the end of last season, on the all-weather. He may have had a steep rise in the handicap, but Prescott must feel that it is a fair mark for him. He’s at a 33%, which shows evidence of his shrewdness and knowledge, and has a good chance to add the Pitman’s Derby to an illustrious CV. Omniscient with each-way claims at 10/1 (General)

    AN O’BRIEN FAIRYTALE

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    15:25 – Pretty Polly Stakes (Group One) – Never Ending Story @ 5/1 (BetVictor)

    Looking at this race on paper, it doesn’t scream Group One. We’ve had a few races like this, this season, and the quality doesn’t fill me with much joy. Which is why I’m taking advantage of the massive allowances that two of these fillies get. Never Ending Story is one of these, and has raced in two Group One’s this season. Both were in France, and both times she lost to Blue Rose Cen. In the Prix de Diane, she ran a second and was more suited to the trip. She may be playing second-fiddle, but I think everyone’s on the wrong O’Brien horse.

    Sunday

    STATE THE OBVIOUS

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    3:40 – IRISH DERBY (GROUP ONE) – Proud And Regal E/W @ 40/1 (BetVictor)

    Auguste Rodin will win it. The market says so, and everyone else does. He performed to his absolute best at Epsom, and should be as on song as he was at Epsom three weeks ago. Sprewell and White Birch did run on well in behind, but I feel that Sprewell isn’t group one quality, and White Birch is second-best. But Proud And Regal at 40/1 is an each-way shout that I can’t be having. It was the wrong decision to make him step down in trip for the Irish Guineas, but hat form stood up at Royal Ascot which benefits him. He was third behind Sprewell on heavy ground over 10 furlongs, and you felt that a step up in trip would be better than stepping down. The ground will be to his liking, and he’s a Group One winner (in France), which everyone seems to have forgotten. He’s also bred for a Derby, by Galileo, and related to a few middle-distance horses.

    The very best of luck!

  • Irish Derby Weekend Best Bets – The Top Three

    Irish Derby Weekend Best Bets – The Top Three

    It’s Irish Derby Weekend and our The Top Three column had a good time of things in the English equivalent a few weeks ago.

    Although Waipiro didn’t handle the test of the Derby at Epsom, victory for Prosperous Voyage in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes and a placed effort for Silver Sword in the Lester Piggott Handicap made it a profitable day.

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    After a tough Royal Ascot, the P&L is still positive at +2.85 points and with a good weekend of racing ahead, here are my three best fancies.

     

    12:20 Newcastle – BATAL DUBAI @ 13/2 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

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    Racing starts early at 12:20 this week on ITV Racing and it’s Harry and Roger Charlton’s BATAL DUBAI that caught my attention in the opener.

    The Profitable three-year-old colt has only raced five times so far, winning three of them, and has former champion jockey Oisin Murphy in the saddle for the first time.

    Although disappointing on his last two runs, one took place on heavy ground at Newbury and the over saw him miss the break at Windsor.

    Furthermore, the £30,000 handicap contest gives three-year-olds a six-pound allowance and both he and Animate will benefit from it.

    With race fitness on his side and, in my books, still relatively unexposed at six furlongs on quick ground, the 13/2 with BoyleSports is attractive for Batal Dubai.

     

    12:55 Newcastle – MOUNT ATHOS @ 5/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    At an ante-post stage, El Caballo at 4/1 was my main interest in the Chipchase Stakes, as discussed on the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast.

    However, as mentioned in my Ante-post Analysis article on Wednesday, the best value in the race was MOUNT ETHOS at 8/1.

    Fast-forward two days and that has turned into a truthful statement as James Tate’s four-year-old is a best-priced 9/2 with William Hill for this weekend.

    My explanation behind his chance this weekend is included in the Ante-post Analysis article, which you can read to see why I like him as a 50/1 shot for the July Cup.

    Now that declarations are in for the Chipchase Stakes, I see that he could be the likely pace angle in the contest.

    Of the dead-eight runners, the Dark Angel colt won both of his starts at Kempton when racing from the front and only Brad The Brief and Prince Of Pillo look like horses who could lead, but most of their success has come from sitting in-behind leaders.

    Therefore, if Mount Athos gets an easy lead from the front, he could be hard to peg back on his return to six furlongs under Neil Callan.

     

    3:25 Curragh – ABOVE THE CURVE @ 5/2 with BetVictor – 3pt Win

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    My final fancy comes in the first Group 1 of the weekend as I’ve turned to ABOVE THE CURVE in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh.

    Although she is the current favourite at 5/2, if she had opened up at 7/4, I wouldn’t have looked twice as she is the proven best horse in the race

    Although she is the only Group 1 winner in the race, won a Group 2 with ease last time out, and will be partnered by the best jockey in the world, Ryan Moore, she seems underestimated in the market.

    Admittedly, Via Sistina was very impressive at Newmarket last time out, however, I would like to see her do it again before trusting the performance especially due to the fact she will be racing on a much quicker surface.

    She does have good ground form, but it hasn’t been at this level and by Fastnet Rock, I’d have a concern on that side of things.

    Then at 5/1 is Never Ending Story, a horse Moore would have had the option to ride, but he is jumping on Joseph O’Brien’s contender rather than siding with the younger Dubawi filly for Joseph’s dad, Aidan.

    And although Above The Curve has performed best on soft ground, her pedigree of American Pharoah out of a Galileo mare suggests the better surface shouldn’t be an issue and at 5/2, she could be the class act of the race.

  • Royal Ascot Day Five: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Five: Selections and Naps

    Day Four was an up and down day at Royal Ascot. Tahiyra, tipped up by me three times, won in a messy race. And King of Steel proved his run in the Derby wasn’t a fluke. Today is the final day of what has been an incredible meeting, let’s finish on a high. Here are my Day Five picks.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    ROYAL REPEAT

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    NAP: Queen Elizabeth Jubilee Stakes (GROUP ONE) – ROHAAN @ 10/1 (10Bet, William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    Rohaan always seems to come alive at the Royal meeting. Two Wokingham’s, two wins. But now he’s too high for the handicap, but those two were just as good as Group One performances, and shouldn’t’ have trouble here. People may say that he is punching above his weight with the likes of the Aussie Artorius, and the Hong Kong raider Wellington, but I think he holds his own, especially when he’s at Ascot. His record is 4 wins out of six at the Berkshire track, and he finished fourth in a Group One last year. And, dare I say, the draw might suit him.

    Watch out for Kinross, who had a stellar season last year with many trips over the seven furlongs. He dropped back to six in the Champions Sprint Stakes here and wowed with an eye-catching performance. He’s been overtaken in the market by the two international raiders, and Highfield Princess, but he shouldn’t be discounted, particularly now with Frankie on form. Fourth-best in the market at 7/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill).

    PYLE IN TOP GEAR

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    E/W BET: Hardwicke Stakes (Group Two) – Pyledriver @ 13/2 (Unibet, BetVictor)

    I can’t accept that Pyledriver is at that price, at course he loves, on ground he loves. He hasn’t been seen since winning the King George last year due to injuries and various setbacks, but William Muir and Chris Grassick love this horse, and won’t have run him unless he was 100% fit. He’s has lost to Hukum before, but he bounced back in the King George last year. He has some sketchy form when coming back of a break, but recently he’s been winning, and there’s no reason to say he can’t here.

    HAGGAS IN THE HANDICAP

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    Handicap Best: Wokingham Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Khanjar @ 11/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)

    Looking at the pace map, it’s all over the shop, so draw may not matter. There is some pace coming out of stalls 25-28, and Khanjar can lock on to it from 24. Haggas has only sent out three runners, and ended up with a winner in Desert Hero. And the combination of Haggas, Crowley and Shadwell in a handicap should strike fear into their rivals. Plus his form makes for good reading; ran a good race at Hamilton (stiff track) and finished a length behind the winner. The cheek-pieces are on to sharpen him up, which is always a good sign. Plus a bit of C&D can’t go amiss.

    Looking further down the market First Folio for James Ferguson makes appeal at 25/1 (General). He has won a heritage handicap, the Macmillan Sprint at York in 2021 and finished sixth in last year’s Wokingham. He’s been given the same handicap rating as he did, but Taylor Fisher takes 5lbs off him and might give him a chance to finish a bit closer than he did last time.

    Another big price fancy is Kape Moss, who could provide a first Royal winner for Billy Loughnane. He rides for his father David, and claims a crucial 3lbs. Kape Moss may not have top class handicap form, but her last two races have been in listed company, and couldn’t just get to the winner at Haydock last time out. She’s well handicapped, and with a talented rider on board, she could spring a surprise at 28/1 (General).

    Selections:

    14:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed) – La Guarida @ 7/1 (Boylesports)

    15:05 – Jersey Stakes (Group Three) – Olivia Maralda @ 6/1 (10Bet, Betfred, Boylesports, BetGoodwin)

    15:40 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (GROUP ONE) – ROHAAN (NAP) @ 10/1 (10Bet, William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK), Kinross e/w @ 7/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill)

    16:20 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group Two) – PYLEDRIVER (E/W) @ 13/2 (Unibet, BetVictor)

    17:00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – KHANJAR (H’CAP) @ 11/1 (BetVictor, William Hill), First Folio e/w @ 25/1 (General), Kape Moss e/w @ 28/1 (General)

    17:35 – Golden Gates H’cap – Lion Of War @ 6/1 (General)

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    18:10 – Queen Alexandra Stakes – Stratum @ 5/2 (Unibet, Betfred, BetVictor), Falcon Eight e/w @ 15/2 (Unibet, BetVictor)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day 5 – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 5 – The Top Three

    Yes, you would be correct in thinking about what is currently on your mind. ‘What state was Ash in when the Palace Of Hollyroodhouse Stakes finished?’ Well, after a day of four selections, one place and no winners, it was safe to say I wasn’t the happiest.

    But then again, you dust yourself off, pick yourself up, and roll into Royal Ascot Day 5.

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    Has this week been tough for people having a bet? Yes. Did I expect good success after Triple Time won the Queen Anne in what seems like a race that took place six months ago? Yes. But these things happen and this series hadn’t accumulated an ROI of 80% pre-Ascot for no reason.

    To keep you in touch with recent results, after Tuesday, the P&L was at +27.75 at an ROI of 73%. Now, after Friday, we are +12.85 at an ROI of 24%. That is tough reading, but we have three fancies to hang our hopes on, so let’s get started.

     

    Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes – Wellington @ 11/2 with William Hill – 2pt EW

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    Hong Kong is yet to have a runner at this year’s Royal Ascot, but today, WELLINGTON is holding their hopes and dreams.

    Trained by Richard Gibson, the six-year-old by All Too Hard is one of the world’s best sprinters, that is a fact, and he has been bumping heads with Lucky Sweynesse on multiple occasions over the last year, a horse who is the number one sprinter in the world.

    Wellington actually beat his fierce rival at Sha Tin in the Premier Bowl handicap last October when giving nine pounds away.

    Everything circulating on Twitter and social media suggests he has travelled over well and at 11/2, that is an incredible each-way price with William Hill, and I can’t wait to see this Hong Kong star at the legendary Ascot.

     

    Wokingham Stakes – Orazio @ 6/1 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    This horse. This is the one I can’t desert. All the chat about NAP of the week comes down to this.

    Any regular readers or viewers of the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast will know that ORAZIO for Charlie Hills has been my bet of Royal Ascot for a few weeks.

    This colt by Caravaggio bolted up over course and distance last time out following a decent win at Newmarket the month prior.

    Further before that, he missed all of 2022 and some of 2021 due to what seems like a setback and for a £215,000 purchase as a yearling, that would have been annoying, so to have him firing on all cylinders is promising to see.

    Off 102, I think the mark is still fair and if he is a Group horse in the making then a win today in the Wokingham, a difficult handicap at the best of times, should hopefully happen.

    The only thing that is a worry is the form of the yard at four winners from 33 runners, the reason why this is a win-only bet as he could either go very close or not fire at all.

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    I have hopes that we can see a nice performance tomorrow from stall 29, so good luck to William Buick and his connections.

     

    Golden Gates Handicap – Knockbrex @ 7/2 with BoyleSports – 3pt WIN

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    Although Orazio is one of my best bets of the week, KNOCKBREX has become a close second to my strength in the bet.

    His York performance thoroughly impressed me despite not winning as he made all under Andrea Ateni and forced his competitors off the bridle before being passed late on when victim to doing too much too soon.

    The form of that race has worked out nicely as well because the winner, Chesspiece, ran a good race behind Gregory in the Queen’s Vase and the second, Land Legend, was a big eyecatcher from the King George V Handicap.

    Speaking of Gregory, Charlie Johnston’s colt by Ulysses got to within two lengths of the highly-impressive John & Thady Gosden-trained horse at Haydock, a race that saw him pass horses rather than make all which shows the versatility of his running style.

    And even a look at his pedigree excites me as he is out of a Pivotal mare (an angle I love) with the dam a half-sister to the two-time Listed winner Answered and a full sister to Peripatetic, a recent winner of the Listed Tapster Stakes at Goodwood two weeks ago.

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    The cross of Ulysess out of a Pivotal mare is actually one that has produced the useful Holloway Boy, Gwan So, and Relentless Voyager in recent years, so off a mark of 90, I like the chances of Knockbrex in the Golden Gates Handicap.

  • Royal Ascot Day 4 – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 4 – The Top Three

    We are over the hump and on the downhill run to the end of this glorious meeting as it’s Royal Ascot Day 4.

    For the first two selections yesterday, COLTRANE was a tough pill to swallow in the Gold Cup and BLESS drifted across the track which didn’t aid her chances. TOIMY SON missed the break in the last race and despite staying on at the line, David Menuisier’s charge couldn’t regain the distance.

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    Anyway, it was a tough day, but hopefully, we can have some more success today.

     

    Albany Stakes – Soprano @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The opening race of the day is the Albany Stakes for two-year-old fillies over six furlongs, a race that is always competitive, but it’s SOPRANO that gets my vote of confidence.

    George Boughey hasn’t had the best of weeks at Ascot so far, but this Starspangledbanner filly by Lealas Daughter, a half-sister to three-time Grade 1-winning Obviously, gives him his best hope of a winner.

    Having been bought at the Tattersalls Yearling Sales in October for 100,000GNS, he made his Newmarket debut a winning one over five furlongs, a race he was hurried along in from two furlongs out.

    However, the turn of foot he showed once he got going was impressive and with his 49-day break from the track, it seems connections have had this race over six furlongs in mind for a while.

    In what isn’t a vintage crop for the Albany, Soprano could be the best of the lot.

     

    Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes – Aimeric @ 10/1 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

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    Roger Varian has yet to have a winner at Royal Ascot 2023, however, day four is where I’m hoping that changes as AIMERIC will be carrying my money (the instant curse) at 10/1 with William Hill.

    This Frankel half-brother to none other than Aclaim, the 2017 Prix de la Foret winner turned sire standing at Manton Park, has raced seven times on the track, winning on three occasions.

    The most recent victory came 21 days ago at Doncaster, his first run after a wind and gelding operation.

    That return to form was promising to see as he once beat El Habeeb in a maiden at Chester over 1m4f, a horse who is now rated 110 and ran an eyecatching race behind Coltrane in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last month.

    The handicapper only brandished him with a four-pound rise in the weights for his run last time out and if he can continue to improve on his second run after a wind-op (the age-old cliché), then off a mark of 96, this four-year-old is an interesting way into the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

     

    Sandringham Stakes – Jackie Oh @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt WIN

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    An angle into handicaps I always like to follow is the class horse at the top of the weights.

    In this year’s race, JACKIE OH is the one that can hopefully continue Aidan O’Brien’s incredible form this week.

    Having been supplemented into the Irish Guineas for €50,000, she ran a great race behind Tahiyra and Meditate last time out despite the massive hike in class from a Listed event to Group 1 company.

    She seemed to enjoy the better ground last time out and by Galileo out of Jacqueline Quest, a 1000 Guineas runner-up, she has good relations to Line Of Duty (Breeders’ Cup Turf Juvenile winner), Secret State (110-rated Godolphin four-year-old) and Onassis (two-time Listed winner for Charlie Fellowes).

    Hopefully, she will be able to defy her mark of 102 and can continue O’Brien’s streak of Royal Ascot success.

     

    Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes – Rocket Rodney @ 22/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    And finally, this series is called ‘The Top Three’, but with the difficulty of splitting these four selections, I’m including them all on the P&L.

    In the finale over five furlongs, ROCKET RODNEY looks wildly overpriced at 22/1 with William Hill.

    Keeping this short and sweet, he looked brilliant in the preliminaries before last year’s Windsor Castle and gave Little Big Bear a great race WHEN beaten by a neck; that form is worth its weight in gold and could receive another boost if O’Brien’s stable star obliges in the Commonwealth Cup.

    He also beat Eddie’s Boy three times last season, a subsequent Group 3 winner, and even put four lengths between himself and Rumstar, another subsequent Group 3 winner, in the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown in July.

    If you can ignore his last run of the season on ground that didn’t suit and his seasonal reappearance when he needed the run, returning to a favourable course and distance should benefit his chances and the handicapper has dropped him six pounds in two runs.

    Off 99, with all of that Group-level form, George Scott’s Dandy Man colt is a great each-way chance in the last.

     

    Other fancies for the day (not including on P&L):

    • Little Big Bear 11/10 & Shaquille 9/1 (3:05)
    • Arrest 7/2 (5:35)
  • Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Day Three was a Royal day at Royal Ascot. His Majesty the King had the King George V winner in Desert Hero, and the King of Royal Ascot, Frankie Dettori won his final Gold Cup, to take his tally to an astonishing NINE. Today sees many bankers of the week, and it might be a day for the punters. Here are my Day Four picks.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    RIGHT ROYAL PRECESSION

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    NAP: Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Tahyira will win. It’s as simple as that. She has faced Meditate three times in her career and has flew past her on all occasions, and there’s nothing to say she won’t here. Yes Ryan Moore is the leading rider, but I bet he wishes he was riding Tahiyra as she oozes pure class. She’s already been tipped up on my ‘Four To Follow’ page, TWICE. That just shows how talented she is. A great outside draw and she won’t see another rival in sight.

    DOUBLE DELIGHT

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    E/W BET: Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Lezoo @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & Shouldvebeenaring @ 28/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Little Big Bear is the class horse in the race, and has a perfect draw sat right next to the pace. He should win this, and is one of the certainties of the day. The question is who finishes in behind?

    Lezoo is back to her best distance. She never looked like a miler, which beggared belief when she ran in the 1000 Guineas. She won a Group One at two over six furlongs, and bagged the Princess Margaret over C&D before her Newmarket success. King Frankie has just started to get into his winning stride and loves riding for his owner friend Marc Chan. Second best horse in the field and has good stand-side draw.

    Then I have to have Shouldvebeenaring on side for this race. Bradsell flew down the centre of the course in the King’s Stand, and gave Little Big Bear and Shouldvebeenaring a big form boost, after coming out of the Sandy Lane behind these two. She is already a seasoned campaigner and remarkably consistent and can’t be left out of the places.

    Tricast: 1. Little Big Bear, 2. Lezoo, 3. Shouldvebeenaring

    OH RYAN, OH AIDAN, OH JACKIE

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    Handicap Best: Sandringham H’cap – Jackie Oh @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Once again, the handicaps are a bit of a struggle, but this immediately caught my eye. Aidan O’Brien loves putting an underperforming horse into a handicap. And Jackie Oh was disappointing in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and brings the Group One form to an underwhelming handicap. She’s perfect for the mile, as her grandsire is Rock of Gibraltar and a perfect stand side rail draw will help her progress. Plenty of questions about experience, and ground form. But Courage Mon Amis answered all those questions yesterday and Jackie Oh can do today.

    I was also took with Clounmacon in this race. Surprisingly this Johnny Murtagh’s only horse he is sending over to the Royal meeting, which must mean it has the best chance out of his stable, he won’t be sending her over for peanuts. Only beaten by a head in a Premier Handicap at the Curragh, and she’s only been put up 2lbs. She’s nice in the weights, and a middle draw might not be too bad, as jockeys’ have said the faster ground seems to be there. Nice e/w punt at 14/1 (General)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Albany Stakes (Group Three) – Matrika @ 8/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:05 – Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 11/10 (WIN) (William Hill), LEZOO (E/W) @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & SHOULDVEBEENARING @ 28/1 (E/W) (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

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    15:40 – Duke of Edinburgh H’cap – Al Nafir @ 11/2 (Unibet, William Hill)

    16:20 – Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA (NAP) @ 8/13 (Unibet, William Hill)

    17:00 – Sandringham H’cap – JACKIE OH @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports), CLOUNMACON @ 14/1 e/w (General)

    17:35 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group Two) – King Of Steel @ Evs (Boylesports)

    18:10 – Palace of Holyrood House H’cap – Frankness @ 16/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Three: Selections and Naps

    What a difference a day makes! Royal Ascot Day Two saw Mostahdaf light up the turf and beat the NAP Luxembourg, but not after giving him a mention. And the E/W Bet, Rogue Millennium stepped down in trip and delivered in the Duke of Cambridge. Thursday is Gold Cup Day, but the card isn’t overly attractive. But I’ve managed to dig through to hopefully find some winners on Day Three.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    ELDAR TO GRAB THE GOLD

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    NAP: Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – ELDAR ELDAROV @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Named after the famous MMA fighter, Eldar Eldarov has done nothing but impress. Last season he delivered an eye-catching run at the Royal meeting, in the Queen’s Vase which set him up for the St Leger. This season, he’s started rather well. A narrow second at York on firm ground was good prep for this marathon contest. He’s the highest rated horse, which is no surprise. The Gold Cup doesn’t look as sexy as we have had in previous years, and it’s Eldar’s for the taking.

    Keep an eye on Subjectivist, the 2021 winner. He ran a good prep race in the Dubai Gold Cup, which had been his previous prep for the 2021 edition. He’s back from a break of two years, shaped well over in Dubai and can improve from that today. Double figure price at 10/1 (10Bet, BetUK)

    ROYAL RARE-BET

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    E/W BET: Hampton Court Stakes (Group Three) – Caernarfon @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill)

    I can’t wrap my head around how a top-rated horse, who finished third in the Epsom Oaks, is a double-figure price. She seems so versatile on all sorts of ground with wins on Good, soft, and placed on firm. She drops down two classes from Group One to Group Three, which might be more her level and a slight step back in trip won’t trouble her much. Jack Channon deserves something for training this horse, and hopefully he can get her over the line today.

    DAVID VS ASCOT

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    Handicap Best: King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Davideo @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetUK)

    The handicaps today aren’t the best quality fields and I can’t seem to see any horse screaming out at me to make a case. Apart from Davideo. Surprisingly, recent winners haven’t come from the famous London Gold Cup, and tend to be found coming out of maidens. He has form finishing behind Mostabshir at Kempton, but hosed up at Newmarket on reappearance this season. He’s been given a fair mark of 92 and wide draw on the round course isn’t necessarily a bad thing

    Land Legend just caught my eye in this race. Chesspiece didn’t’ win his race yesterday and didn’t back up the form, but after turning to turf his form looks to have improved. A win and a second isn’t to be sniffed at, and a two-pound rise is lenient and puts him at a decent mark for the race. Each-way claims at 16/1 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill, BetUK)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group Two) – Elite Status @ 11/8 (General)

    15:05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – DAVIDEO @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetUK), Land Legend @ 16/1 e/w (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group Two) – Al Asifah @ 8/13 (Betfred, BetUK)

    16:20 – Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – ELDAR ELDAROV (NAP) @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    17:00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Fort Vega @ 16/1 (General), Ramazan @ 25/1 (General) – Both e/w

    17:35 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group Three) – CAERNARFON @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill)

    18:10 – Buckingham Palace H’cap – Northern Express @ 16/1 (General)

    Best of Luck!