In what is labelled as ‘Super Saturday’ in the racing world, Newmarket July Cup Day is upon us with top-class action from Newmarket, Ascot, Chester, and York to look forward to.
With a plethora of racing on our screens today, here are my main bets.
2:12 Newmarket – Heritage House @ 33/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 0.5pt EW
Heritage House has taken a walk in the market this morning, but as they say, the horse doesn’t know its price and her form in the book looks interesting off a mark of 93.
The Dark Angel three-year-old has tried handicap company on two occasions, winning one and finishing second to Chic Colombine the other time.
Chic Colombine is a Listed winner rated 103, so that form looks fairly strong.
Chic Colombine gets up just in time to clinch the British Stallion Studs EBF "Carrie Red" Fillies' Nursery Handicap 🥇#ITVRacing | #StLegerFestival | @gbougheyracing pic.twitter.com/q2X9gsDJhR
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) September 14, 2023
As for her other runs, she finished fourth to Romantic Style – a subsequent French 1000 Guineas fourth – in the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes last year and she then ran a good race on her last start.
That race was the Listed Eternal Stakes at Carlisle and the winner, Jabaara, franked the form yesterday by finishing second to Porta Fortuna in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes.
The James Fanshawe yard is in fair form currently, so she’s an interesting contender at a big price.
2:20 Ascot – Embesto @ 14/1 with William Hill (2 places) – 1pt EW
Over at Ascot, my main play from the course comes at a price as Embesto can outrun his odds in the Group 2 Summer Mile Stakes.
It’s not a vintage renewal on paper, but the four-year-old by Roaring Lion progressed nicely as a three-year-old and has form in the book that makes him interesting in this company.
As much as he failed to fire subsequently, finishing second to Nostrum in the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes looks like good form and he then showed great attitude to force a dead-heat in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury.
What drama!
Mighty Ulysses and Embesto can't be separated at the line in a dead heat and memorable finish to our highlight, the Group 3 @Tattersalls1766 Sovereign Stakes.
Many congratulations to all winning connections pic.twitter.com/xsKVh8SkhZ
— Salisbury Racecourse (@salisburyraces) August 17, 2023
Following a good fourth to Poker Face (second to Charyn at the start of this year) and Isaac Shelby (Classic form from last season) in the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein, he has had a murky start to his 2024 campaign.
One can forgive him for his first run of the season and then he had a troubled route through the Group 3 Diomed Stakes, so he has had excuses for the efforts.
If he puts his best foot forward – which he should do thanks to a bit more race fitness – I can see him having a good chance of causing a surprise.
3:45 York – Al Qareem @ 3/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win
With eight runners declared for the Group 3 Silver Cup Stakes at York, the race looks ripe for an each-way play, but I can’t get away from Al Qareem at the head of affairs.
Conditions look pretty decent for the five-year-old by Awtaad as he is racing over 1m6f at York on good to soft ground.
He’s won at York over 1m4f before, but he did win the Group 2 Prix Chaudenay over 1m7f in 2022, so the trip is not too much of a worry.
What a start to Arc weekend! Al Qareem wins the Group 2 Qatar Prix Chaudenay in a photo-finish for @karl_burke and Ryan Moore at @paris_longchamp pic.twitter.com/4UZm83XkSF
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) October 1, 2022
Ignoring his 2022 form (which looks good on paper having run alongside Eldar Eldarov and Deauville Legend), his 2023 form is the best in the race.
Having had a stint abroad in early 2023, he returned to the UK with a victory over Bluestocking in the Listed Stand Cup Stakes at Chester before beating Israr in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes.
Subsequently, he has finished behind Hamish on two occasions, once in the 2023 Group 3 St Simon Stakes and once at the start of this season in the Group 3 Surprise Stakes.
So, with all that form in the book, let’s hope he translates that to the track.
4:35 Newmarket – River Tiber @ 8/1 with Betfair (4 places) – 1pt EW
In what is a good renewal of the July Cup, I’m chancing River Tiber for a stable that does well in this contest with horses dropping in trip.
Aidan O’Brien won the race with U S Navy Flag in 2018 and Ten Sovereigns in 2019, two horses who started the season at eight furlongs.
That is the same profile as River Tiber who ran a great race when third to Rosallion in the Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas at the end of May.
Furthermore, one could argue that the Irish Guineas turned into a bit of a sprint as the early sectionals were on the slow side and the front three flew home with wet sails.
A DREAM result for @rhannonracing 😍
Rosallion comes from off the pace to collar stablemate Haatem close home in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.
The favourite needed to dig deep for @LeveySean and he did just that 🟡⚫️@Tattersalls1766 | @curraghrace pic.twitter.com/IF053cfMGS
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) May 25, 2024
With my frequently-used forgiving hat on, he potentially bounced in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and there was plenty of confidence behind him that day.
Of course, one has to respect Vandeek and Inisherin at the head of the market, but 8/1 seems like a fair price for a horse of River Tiber’s quality and I’m happy to back him.
