Best Of Bets

Author: Ashley Symonds

  • Cheltenham October Meeting Day 2 | Scoping out rivals

    Cheltenham October Meeting Day 2 | Scoping out rivals

    At the time of writing, day one of the Cheltenham October Meeting hasn’t started, so let’s assume all of Friday’s selections won, naturally.

    It’s a big day in both the jumps and Flat scene on Saturday, and here are my main selections.

     

    1:10 Cheltenahm – Lisnamult Lad @ 20/1 with Betfair (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    The opening contest on Saturday at Chelteham is wide-open, but Lisnamult Lad deserves respect for Ian Donoghue.

    When trained by John McConnell, he showed promise over hurdles, notably when bolting up at Hexham over 2m4f and Ludlow over one furlong further.

    He was sent off 5/2 to beat Butch at the same meeting last year, but I’m not sure how well he stays three miles.

    After that, ran well over three miles on his first two starts for Donoghue when second to the well-handicapped Bardenstown Lad and Tommie Beau, both of whom have won since.

    He has something to prove over fences, but he’s won on good ground before, goes well fresh, and is open to improvement over the bigger obstacles.

     

    2:05 Doncaster – Aberama Gold @ 7/1 with Bet365 (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    There’s nothing quirky about this pick as Aberama Gold is well-known to many people.

    I put him up in this column when third at Haydock three starts ago.

    Blue Storm, the winner that day, reopposes, but David O’Meara’s seven-year-old gets a six-pound swing in the weights which is key.

    Furthermore, Aberama Gold’s record at Doncaster reads 1, 18, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, so he clearly likes the track, especially in soft conditions.

    With Hollie Doyle booked, he can run a good race here.

     

    2:20 Cheltenham – Some Scope @ 13/2 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Some Scope has sat patiently in the tracker for a while, but Saturday could see him turn his run of good losing performances into a win.

    He was one of only two finishers in the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster in March, a race that looked brutal in the conditions.

    Speaking to Carl Hinchy, his part-owner, throughout last season, connections have wanted to keep him to a sounder surface, and he did win on good ground at Doncaster in January.

    Before that, he gave Twoshotsoftequila a good beating at Catterick on good to soft ground, form that looks solid as the runner-up won two races subsequently.

    Saturday’s good ground at Prestbury Park will play to his strengths and a mark of 126 is very reasonable for this improving six-year-old, so I think Some Scope will play his part in the big £100,000 handicap chase.

     

    2:40 Doncaster – Anno Domini @ 7/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The profile of Anno Domini goes against my usual MO as it’s his first run for 113 days, but I like what he brings to the Futurity Stakes.

    On his final start, he gave five pounds and a good beating to Windlord who chased home Hotazhell in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes last time out.

    He also beat Angel Hunter that day who has since won a hot nursery at York, and the fourth, Hawksbill, ran a solid race in the Listed Ascendant Stakes in September.

    He’s a New Bay half to the Group 1 placed Kathmandu and Listed winner Pythagoras, while the likes of Alborada (two-time Group 1 winner) and Albanova (three-time Group 1 winner) are further back in the family.

    Anno Domini is a likeable horse who hasn’t shown his full ability yet. Hopefully, he will do this on Saturday.

     

    3:30 Cheltenham – Givemefive @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Bottler’secret is attracting plenty of hype ahead of the Masterson Holdings Hurdle, and that’s fair. He’s the one to beat and Gavin Cromwell loves early-season Cheltenham winners.

    But, as I said on Wednesday’s Only Fools Love Horses preview, Givemefive is the safe bet.

    Harry Derham has targeted this race, and he’s razor-sharp when it comes to plotting horses for races. Take Shared winning at last season’s Chepstow jumps season opener as an example.

    The four-year-old by Holy Roman Emperor ran a good race on the Flat at Haydock last month to prepare for Saturday’s assignment, and there’s reason to suggest his run at Fairyhouse when behind Bottler’secret wasn’t his true self.

    Having raced on the Flat for Johnny Murtagh last summer, he hasn’t really had a proper break since the end of 2022 as he had just a 94-day rest between the end of his Flat campaign and the start of his jumps career.

    He’s race-fit, should handle the ground despite his soft ground form over hurdles to date, and it’s hard to deny the form he has with Kalif Du Berlais from the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle.

    At the prices, I’m happy to play him.

     

    4:05 Cheltenham – Theatre Man @ 9/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    I could fall into the trap of backing a nice horse on its first start of the season, but Theatre Man will take some whacking in the 3m novices’ chase.

    To my eye, Yeats Star and Moon D’Orange could do with softer ground, Bowtogreatness will need the run, and it’ll be tough for Hyland to give weight away to the favourite.

    That leaves Transmission and Theatre Man, and while I have the utmost respect for the former, Richard Bandey’s eight-year-old should have the class here.#

    Despite falling at the third in the Plate (a race he went off favourite for), he’s a fairly sound jumper and it’s hard to knock his staying on second to Ginny’s Destiny, the subsequent Turners Novices’ Chase runner-up, on Trials Day.

    He won at Kempton after a 79-day break in March 2023 and ran a solid race on his first start of last season when second at Newbury.

    If he replicates that form, or his winning Kempton form, he should go very close here.

  • Cheltenham October Meeting Day 1 | A Charming Plan

    Cheltenham October Meeting Day 1 | A Charming Plan

    It almost feels like last week since Rebel Dawn Rising won the 2m4f hunters’ chase at Prestbury Park in May, but the Flat season is in the past now and the Cheltenham October meeting is on our agenda.

    Friday kicks off another campaign at the home of jumps racing, and plenty of the races look very interesting.

    Kalpana helped eat into the loss this column took at Chepstow the week prior, so let’s hope Cheltenham is equally as kind to us.

     

    2:25 Cheltenham – Matata @ 9/4 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Although his price has come in since we recorded the Only Fools Love Horses preview, the case for Matata remains in the third race of the day.

    His last handicap run came at the course on New Year’s Day when second to Libberty Lane.

    The winner has since finished second in the Grand Annual and third in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase, and Matata made a mistake at the last fence which potentially cost him the race.

    The form of his second in the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase also looks good as Master Chewy, the fourth, was second to Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase two starts later.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old won on seasonal debut last year on good to soft ground and won on good ground in a novice handicap hurdle, so conditions should suit.

    Off 147, just five pounds higher than his mark when second to Libberty Lane, he has a good chance here.

     

    2:25 Cheltenham – Arclight @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    As much as Matata holds strong claims, the case for Arclight is a makeable one in the conditions.

    Nicky Henderson’s mare won on seasonal reappearance last season, a race that occurred on good ground, and the form of beating Mayhem Mya (improved eight pounds since) and Carole’s Pass (now rated 132) from her Listed Exeter success is strong.

    Her final win two starts ago occurred at Wincanton where he beat Marsh Wren, a subsequent two-time winner and Grade 2 Mares’ Chase third, which again looks like nice form for a horse rated 136.

    Back in handicap company, she is of interest.

     

    3:35 Cheltenham – Planned Paradise @ 14/1 with SkyBet (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    I can’t see why Planned Paradise won’t run a big race in the amateur jockeys’ handicap chase at Cheltenham on Friday.

    Just five starts ago in July, he dotted up at Perth off 107 (running to an RPR of 128) over 2m4f.

    He comes into Cheltenham this weekend off just a five-pound higher mark, and Gina Andrews choosing to ride him is worth noting.

    She rode Strictlyadancer when fourth in this race last year, but he is partnered by Edward Vaughan this year instead.

    Although Planned Paradise’s last win came over 2m4f, he ran into a clearly well-handicapped Get Up Much over 3m1f at Warwick on his last start and has run two good races over 3m5f before.

    The latest occurred at Fakenham in May when second, though he was also a runner-up to Quick Wave in the 2022 London National Handicap Chase off 119.

    He’ll like the ground, he has race fitness on his side, and is on a workable mark.

     

    4:10 Cheltenham – Potters Charm @ 7/4 with Paddy Power – 2pt Win

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    The local track Worcester saw Potters Charm sprint clear on hurdles debut last month, and I thought the performance was impressive.

    Chancycourt, who was already race-fit, is a fine horse for Fergal O’Brien and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ five-year-old won easily.

    He jumped nicely, and although he was rallied along at the end, I thought his turn of foot in the final half a furlong deserved plenty of respect.

    The better ground is a new condition he’ll have to face, but his dam’s half-brother, Earth King, won his three jumps races on good and good to soft.

    Connections have Grade 1 aspirations with him, and I hope he can continue that progression.

     

    4:45 Cheltenham – Jilaijone @ 10/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    David Pipe has landed a few nice races recently, notably at Chepstow two weeks ago, and he might have lined-up Jilaijone for the conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle.

    His mark of 119 is one pound higher than his official rating when second at Chepstow in October 2023, a race that came before his valiant second to Blueking d’Oroux in the Masterson Holdings Hurdle over course and distance.

    The winner has a rating of 150 now having won a Grade 2 subsequently, so the form looks strong and he’ll handle the good ground.

    Gearoid Harney claims a further six pounds off his back as well, so this improving five-year-old looks like an unexposed type here.

  • Qipco British Champions Day Selections | A returning Fellow

    Qipco British Champions Day Selections | A returning Fellow

    It’s the finale of the UK Flat season as Qipco British Champions Day is upon us.

    The card is a belter from top to bottom and it is the best day of racing we’ve had all season.

    We already have two ante-post selections from Wednesday (Beauvatier @ 12/1 and Bucanero Fuerte @ 25/1) for the British Champions Sprint Stakes, which can be viewed here.

    At 10/1 for Beauvatier and 33/1 for Bucanero Fuerte, I’ll place another 0.5pt EW.

    So, let’s not mess about. Here are my main selections.

     

    2:35 Ascot – Kalpana @ 9/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Admittedly, my recent form makes for tough reading, but surely even I can’t cause a horse to drift as much as Kalpana has over the last 96 hours, right?

    She was a general 7/4 shot in the build-up to this race in the full knowledge that the ground would turn soft, yet she is now available at 4/1.

    This Study Of Man filly is one I’ve liked for a while as she showed so much ability to beat the now 102-rated Align The Stars by 10 lengths at Newmarket in April. She then chased home Friendly Soul in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes on her next start.

    The winner won the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera recently to add to her other subsequent Group 3 and 2 successes.

    The big worry is the ground over 12 furlongs, and I do understand the concern.

    Her pedigree offers some hope as her dam, Zero Gravity, is a full sister to the Group 1 winner Zambezi Sun who won his only Group 1 on good to soft and also placed in a Group 2 on soft.

    The three runs outside of Royal Ascot were all on good ground, certainly not a fast surface, and she had no problem with it on all three occasions.

    I think she is classy, and I hope today is the day she shows that at Group 1 level.

     

    3:15 Ascot – Henry Longfellow @ 15/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The QEII looks like a muddling little contest, but I’ve landed on Henry Longfellow who will handle conditions over a mile at Ascot.

    His main piece of form to hang the hat on is his second to Rosallion, the 2000 Guineas runner-up and Irish 2000 Guineas winner, in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

    That occurred on good to firm, but he looked to have quite a high knee action to my eye (his front legs really powered into the ground), and he won on soft on debut.

    His two subsequent runs as a juvenile saw him beat Stunning Peach by two and five lengths respectively; Stunning Peach nearly beat Los Angeles in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final start of the season.

    The Group 1 Prix du Moulin, his final start, didn’t plan out in a usual manner, but he stayed on through the line under a hands-and-heels drive from Ryan Moore, suggesting his ability remains.

    I think he’s still a class act and one who will hopefully handle a soft ground mile at Ascot.

     

    3:55 Ascot – King’s Gambit @ 25/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    The Champion Stakes looks like a great contest, but I’m taking a chance on King’s Gambit at a big price.

    Two of his last three runs were unlucky as he was given a mountain to do, but he still ran with credit.

    The last occurred over 12 furlongs on good to firm ground, and I think he should have beaten Los Angeles if positioned closer to the pace.

    Back to 10 furlongs should therefore suit, and both Illinois and Los Angeles have franked the form of his run in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes.

    Although the ground is cause for concern, he was a fine second on soft as a juvenile and won on good to soft on his second career start.

    Two of his dam’s full siblings, Sophisticat and Grand Reward, also showed good form on slower surfaces as well.

    The former finished third in the 2002 French 1000 Guineas on soft and the latter showed some of his best form on yielding in a Group 3.

    He’s a big price and he’s a classy animal.

     

    4:35 Ascot – Daysofourlives @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Balmoral Handicap isn’t one for the fainthearted, but Daysofourlives has a lot of upsides.

    He’s a two-time winner over a mile, but his last success came over two furlongs further on good ground, so he should stay eight furlongs at Ascot in testing conditions.

    Speaking of the ground, he finished third in a Nottingham novice on soft ground, one place ahead of the now 101-rated Balance Play.

    Of his two starts at the Berkshire track, he won a handicap over course and distance off 85 in September 2023 and then she finished fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup.

    Five of the first six home that day came from stall 17 or above, so it was a mighty performance to finish a staying-on fourth from stall 10.

    On his first start back from an 87-day break, he beat Liberty Lane at Doncaster recently, form that looks strong considering he won the Cambridgeshire on his next start and finished second in the Group 3 Darley Stakes after that.

    When you consider that the top four in the handicap have rather lofty ratings, the rest of the handicap from number five to 20 has just a nine-pound difference from top to bottom.

    At that stage, it’s a case of who looks like the best horse.

    To me, Daysofourlives fits that description.

  • British Champions Day 2024 | Ante-post Angle

    British Champions Day 2024 | Ante-post Angle

    British Champions Day sends the UK Flat season off into the sun for another year as the nights get longer and the jumps get more prominent.

    Saturday’s fixture looks exciting on paper, and at this early ante-post stage, two horses running in the British Champions Sprint Stakes have caught my eye.

    Below, I explain why.

     

    1:55 Ascot – Bucanero Fuerte @ 25/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    It’s fair to say that Bucanero Fuerte has had his fair share of unpredictable issues this season.

    He won on his seasonal reappearance when giving three pounds away to the subsequent Group 3 winner Givemethebeatboys before sustaining a setback due to travel complications at Royal Ascot.

    Running after a long break in the Group 1 Sprint Cup Stakes and then over five furlongs eight days later in the Group 1 Flying Five Stakes can, in my eyes, be forgiven.

    Looking back on last season, the Wootton Bassett colt won in soft conditions on debut before winning the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes three starts later over six furlongs.

    On paper, beating the subsequent four-time Group 1 winner Porta Fortuna by four lengths is great form.

    His juvenile form also got a boost at the end of 2023 when Unquestionable, a horse he beat in the Group 2 Railway Stakes, went on to win the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in November.

    In the days leading up to Ascot on Saturday, I can envisage a market move coming for Bucanero Fuerte as a stiff six furlongs on slightly softer ground should suit well.

     

    1:55 Ascot – Beauvatier @ 12/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    Speaking of classy individuals, Beauvatier certainly ticks plenty of boxes.

    Connections have campaigned him to suggest he’s full of quality as he ran in the French 2000 Guineas on his second start of this season before engaging in three further Group 1 contests.

    The best of the bunch came most recently where he finished an eye-catching third to Ramatuelle, third in the hot Newmarket 1000 Guineas earlier this season, and Kinross in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret.

    As a juvenile, he chased home Rosallion and Unquestionable in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere and he came from a similar early position as Rosallion to stay on through the line.

    He’s clearly not an easy animal to win with as connections drop him well off the pace frequently to try and settle him. He was rather keen in the French Guineas, after all.

    However, much like Bucanero Fuerte, a testing six on similarly testing ground should work on paper.

    Interestingly, seven of the last 10 winners of this race had won over seven furlongs before success in this six-furlong contest, so a sprinter who has a bit of extra stamina in the locker is preferable.

    This stat points positively to a few in this year’s race, notably this French raider.

  • Chepstow Jumps Season Opener Day 2 | Liking Liari

    Chepstow Jumps Season Opener Day 2 | Liking Liari

    Yesterday, day one of the Chepstow Jumps Season Opener reminded me of one cruel fact. October is tough.

    One can study pedigrees, form, or ground conditions, but if a horse isn’t ready, they aren’t ready.

    Equally, they could be ready, but that horse could do something uncharacteristic on their first public outing for many months.

    From the two Chepstow fancies yesterday, Ryan’s Rocket didn’t perform anywhere near his known form, which you can’t predict, and Moon Hunter was bumped along for the majority of his race.

    Anyway, we move on to today with some good action over jumps and on the Flat.

     

    2:15 Chepstow – Liari @ 5/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    I’ve liked Liari all week, and I’m not ditching him at the 11th hour.

    The form of Paul Nicholls’ horses is a worry based on the performances shown yesterday, but this race looks perfect for him, and he’s probably been targeted for it.

    He won his first three starts for Nicholls last year, the second of which impressively as battled well at Aintree to see off the highly touted Knight Of Allen.

    He then defied a penalty to beat Roaring Legend comfortably on much better ground at Musselburgh before disappointing massively in the Boodles at Cheltenham.

    That wasn’t his full ability, and I believe a mark of 134 is still lenient for him.

     

    2:40 York – Orazio @ 16/1 with Bet365 (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    I truly, honestly, wholeheartedly believed that I had stepped away from the Orazio cliff.

    I left him alone at Ascot in July and I did the same at Ayr last time out, and on both occasions, he failed to hit the frame.

    So, you would imagine that my brain would leave him alone until further notice, right?

    Well, that notice came around sooner than I expected because I’m backing him today.

    His mark of 101 doesn’t make him chucked in, but he is clearly effective off this mark having stayed on like a steam train off 100 in the most recent Wokingham at Royal Ascot.

    Furthermore, the form of his third in the Listed Cammidge Trophy continues to look very good as the winner, Montassib, won the recent Group 1 Sprint Cup while the fourth, Adaay In Devon, has won two subsequent Listed races.

    I think he is ground versatile, but he’s probably a little bit more effective on a slower surface, so the soft ground at York will suit.

    Speaking of York, low draws dominated the five-furlong handicap at the track yesterday, so his break from stall five should work.

    Like I say every time he runs, I think there’s a lot going for him and he is classy. Off the cliff I go!

     

    3:30 Chepstow – Into The Park @ 13/2 with Bet365 (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    I like the unexposed profile of Into The Park in the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle and his price is rather nice.

    On hurdles debut, he chased down Tutti Quanti (an unexposed horse to follow from the Paul Nicholls yard) and Joyeuse (from the family of EPATANTE) at Taunton when giving plenty of weight away.

    On his next start, he bolted up at Newbury and the fourth, Alnilam, has won two novice hurdles since, earning himself a rating of 125.

    Furthermore, on his handicap debut off a mark of 120, he won snugly in a race that received a form boost thanks to Lallygag (fifth).

    It’s a tough race, but I think there are plenty of upsides for Into The Park.

     

    4:00 Chepstow – Jetoile @ 13/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The John Ayres Memorial Handicap Chase is a fascinating race as plenty in the race deserve respect, but Jetoile should go well fresh.

    He won the Old Roan Chase off a one-pound lower mark on his first start of last season and Al Dancer, Tommy’s Oscar, and Hang In There went on to frank the form.

    Running well fresh is a trait that Jetoile possesses as he nearly beat Aucunrisque on chase debut in 2022 and his hurdles debut at Cheltenham was solid in 2021.

    His prominent racing style is likely to suit as it was hard to get into races yesterday, and he is giving Daryl Jacob is only ride on the card.

     

    4:35 Chepstow – Sail Away @ 12/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    After today is through, I could wince at the thought of cliff horses because Sail Away is a horse I have a soft spot for.

    He served the column well at the end of the 2022/23 season when bolting up at Ayr in a novice handicap chase off 136, beating Forward Plan who has since improved 13lbs having won two valuable handicap chases.

    The way he made all and jumped from fence to fence under Bridget Andrews was thoroughly impressive, and he did that thanks to his preferred good ground which he’ll get today.

    A few of his subsequent runs last season were disappointing, but some of his efforts on a faster surface warrant respect, notably his run in the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase when behind Forward Plan again and the subsequent Bet365 Gold Cup runner-up Annual Invictus.

    Less than a month later, he finished fourth of four in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase in order to prepare him for the Aintree Grand National meeting which he never got to because of sustained rain.

    He was only beaten by 10 and a half lengths that day, a quite remarkable effort considering the horses ahead of him (Pic D’Orhy, Ahoy Senor, and L’Homme Presse) are, in my eyes, bonified Grade 1 horses.

    Harry Atkins takes off a valuable seven pounds, so with a current workable mark of 140 and a better surface, he has every right to win this race.

  • Chepstow Jump Season Opener Day 1 | Persian War Rocket

    Chepstow Jump Season Opener Day 1 | Persian War Rocket

    Well, the Chepstow Jump Season Opener is upon us which is a phrase diehard fans have wanted to hear all summer.

    As well as the Welsh action over obstacles, Newmarket has a Group 1 card to look forward to, so there’s something for everyone today.

    Just to review last weekend, the Sunday of the Arc meeting saw us land a winning NAP with Friendly Soul as well as the Foret victor with Ramatuelle.

    Because of these winners, we sit in profit at 8.3pts for the month with an ROI of +59%.

    So, let’s roll on.

     

    1:47 Newmarket – Mr Lightside @ 14/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    Newmarket’s card looks tricky, but Mr Lightside is a horse who can win the Group 3 Conrwallis Stakes.

    His last run wasn’t up to scratch, but his form this season is solid from some of the top festivals.

    Before he ran at York or Goodwood, he beat Hallasan at Nottingham when giving six pounds away which is good form as Hallasan beat Camille Pissarro at Doncaster before Camille Pissarro won last weekend’s Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.

    After that, Mr Lightside put in a big effort to finish second to Big Mojo and Aesterius in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes with Celandine, the fourth, going on to win the Group 2 Lowther Stakes.

    If he repeats that form today, he has a strong chance.

     

    3:15 Chepstow – Ryan’s Rocket @ 9/4 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    No Teeshan and Brechin Castle in this year’s Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle has put a cloud over the feature race, but after some looking, Ryan’s Rocket could be too good here.

    The point-to-point winner finished second on his hurdles debut to the Ben Pauling-trained Fiercely Proud which looks like good form.

    The winner was a close third and second to Jeriko Du Reponet and Lump Sum respectively in two separate Grade 2 subsequently, while both the third (Tregele) and fourth (Geezer Rockstar) have won since.

    The six-year-old gelding won two novice hurdles subsequently, the first was after a three-month lay-off on uncertian soft ground. The second from that race, Manuelito, has won two novice hurdles since.

    All of the form related to Ryan’s Rocket is working out nicely, and Fergal O’Brien has won this race twice before, one of those successes with Poetic Rhythm in 2017 who was making his seasonal reappearance.

     

    4:25 Chepstow – Moon Hunter @ 16/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    There’s a chance I am living too far in the past with Moon Hunter, but he’s a horse who goes well fresh and has a mark of 120 which is intriguing.

    The seven-year-old by Pether’s Moon won on novice hurdle debut and ran his best race of last season on his seasonal debut, so today’s seasonal reappearance should be a positive.

    He also finished a good second at Doncaster in novice hurdle in March 2023 when giving five pounds away to the winner, Henry’s Friend.

    He has since won the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase and two novice handicap chases, so the form looks good.

    Furthermore, he beat Theatre Man in a novice hurdle in December 2022 who has a rating of 137 over fences thanks to form with Ginny’s Destiny and Inch House.

    If he shows any of that form today, he’s a force to be reckoned with.

  • Prix de lArc de Triomphe Day History maker

    Prix de lArc de Triomphe Day History maker

    Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Day is finally upon us, and what a day it promises to be.

    Six Group 1s headlined by the main race itself is what dreams are made of, and plenty of the Group 1s on offer make for good betting heats.

    Just quickly, yesterday wasn’t a great day. Inspiral ran her heart out to finish second in the Sun Chariot and Queen Of Soldiers travelled like the winner before fading.

    Unfortunately, travelling like the winner doesn’t equate to money returning to the wallet, so I’ll have to turn my excuses into better decisions. My apologies.

    Anyway, let’s roll on.

     

    1:30 Longchamp – Rashabar @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Rashabar is a much shorter price than his winning SP (80/1) for the Coventry Stakes earlier this year, but 7/2 looks more than fair here.

    Starting with that Royal Ascot win, four horses have come out of the contest and subsequently won stakes races, so the form looks solid.

    Furthermore, he showed a great attitude to stay on behind Whistlejacket in the Group 1 Prix Morny from the outside of the field, a race that looks like another solid piece of form as both the first and third have placed in separate Group 1s since.

    There’s a lot to like about him here, and with a pedigree of Holy Roman Emperor out of a Camelot mare, he should stay seven furlongs.

     

    3:20 Longchamp (The Arc) – Shin Emperor @ 7/1 & Al Riffa @ 9/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt Win Each

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    Could Japan win their first-ever Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe? I think so, whether it’s through a Japanese trainer or owner.

    Starting with my main selection, Shin Emperor, his run in the Irish Champion Stakes is there for all to see.

    The performance was huge, especially when you consider that his route through was partially blocked.

    The Irish Champion Stakes has so many good formlines in it with Economics and Auguste Rodin as well as the City Of Troy formline thanks to Ghostwriter.

    Furthermore, he is a full brother to the 2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Sottsass, so I’m not too worried if the ground is riding on the slightly slow side of good.

    As for Al Riffa, although Johnny Dineen gives him no chance, I think there are upsides to him.

    The form of the Coral-Eclipse with City Of Troy, Ghostwriter, and See The Fire looks good and he even ran into last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Ace Impact in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano.

    Although his last run in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin was a penalty kick, the third, Best Of Lips, won a Group 3 on his next start to give the form a little bit of substance.

    With ground versatility on his side, he deserves respect.

     

    4:05 Longchamp – Friendly Soul @ 17/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1.5pts EW

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    On Saturday’s Only Fools Love Horses Saturday Live and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe preview (released on Wednesday), I waxed lyrical about Friendly Soul for the Prix de l’Opera.

    She’s held her price nicely at 17/2 and this is a race John Gosden highlighted immediately after her nice victory in the Group 2 Prix Alec Head in August.

    The form of her win in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes in May looks good as the second, Kalpana, went on to win the Listed Glasgow Stakes and Group 3 September Stakes.

    Two starts later, Friendly Soul won the Group 3 Valiant Stakes, a race that has seen Soprano (4th) and Sirona (6th) go on to frank the form.

    The former won a Group 3 on her next start before placing in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes and the latter won the Listed Rosemary Stakes recently.

    By Kingman, she is related to six black-type horses, notably the Group 1 winners With You, Call The Wind, and We Are.

    She is the NAP of the weekend.

     

    4:40 Longchamp – Ramateuelle @ 3/1 with Bet365 – 1pt Win

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    Finally, the Prix de la Foret looks like a race Ramateuelle can impress in, and her form got a nice boost yesterday.

    She looked like the winner for 90% of the 1000 Guineas earlier this year before fading at the last moment to finish third. Arguably, Aurelien Lemaitre kicked for home too soon which saw her become a sitting duck late on.

    That race is working out well as Porta Fortuna and Tamfana have gone on to frank the form at Group 1 level, most recently in the Moyglare Stud Stakes and Sun Chariot respectively.

    Fallen Angel and See The Fire, who probably both underperformed at Newmarket, went on to Group 1 and Group 3 success subsequently to further boost the race’s form.

    This daughter of Justify has plenty of speed under the bonnet as she is a winner over six furlongs, so the return to seven furlongs is no worry.

    If the ground quickens up, she has a pedigree to suggest that’ll suit her, though she also has plenty of form on good to soft.

    I’m hoping she is raring to go after 107 days away as she could blow this race apart.

  • Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend Inspiring Inspiral

    Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend Inspiring Inspiral

    Well, one of the biggest weekends in the calendar is upon us as it’s the Saturday before the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

    Today, we have three Group 1s to look forward to as well as plenty of interesting handicaps, solid Group 2s and open Group 3s.

    Looking back on last weekend, the phrase ‘we needed that’ summed up how I felt after the dust had settled.

    Why? Well, since the Bestofbets.com column returned on August 13th, the form was sketchy.

    But, a profit of 5.6pts across the weekend brought us into profit by 0.35pts from 38pts staked. These aren’t revolutionary numbers, but sitting in profit after a notably bad month is always a good sign.

    Anyway, let’s dive in.

     

    1:30 Newmarket – Queen Of Soldiers @ 12/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)

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    Karmology originally caught my eye when I first looked at Newmarket’s opening race, but it’s hard to ignore Queen Of Soldiers at 12/1.

    A mark of 80 looks very lenient for this three-year-old by Sea The Stars considering she finished second to the now 109-rated Group 2 winner Nakheel on debut.

    The fourth, Queens Fort, is also rated 95 having won a Lingfield maiden and finished seventh in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes.

    She was sent off short prices for her next two races when disappointing, but her handicap debut at Ayr last time out showed she has ability.

    Roger Varian has reached for the first-time blinkers which makes sense as she didn’t look the easiest ride on her last start and her racing weight of 8-4 will feel like nothing compared to the 9-2 and 9-9 she’s carried on her last four starts.

    She looks well-handicapped and is out of the Listed winner Diamounds Pour Moi, so her pedigree is also solid.

     

    2:05 Newmarket – Twafeeg @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I don’t tend to back horses after a long break, but Twafeeg stands out in the 150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes despite his 106-day absence.

    The filly by Far Above impressively beat the subsequent Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge winner Arabian Dusk on debut before going on to finish seventh in the Albany Stakes.

    Simmering (2nd) has won a Group 2 and placed in a Group 1 since, Heavens Gate (3rd) won a Group 3 on her next start, Mountain Breeze (3rd) chased home Arabian Dusk on her next start in the Duchess Of Cambridge, and California Dreamer (5th) placed in a Group 2 seven days later.

    The half-sister to the Group 3 winner Corazon holds an entry for next year’s Irish 1000 Guineas, and while this fact isn’t a tip, it’s nice to know how much they think of her.

     

    2:40 Newmarket – Inspiral @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’ll admit, I’ve never really warmed to Inspiral from a betting perspective. The combination of short prices and wanting to take her on with different horses has always followed her in my eyes, but today, I’m changing tactics.

    Firstly, the ground is likely to be on the slightly softer side of good at Newmarket today. It’s nothing to seriously worry about, but it’s worth noting that Inspiral has won three Group 1s on good to soft.

    She won last year’s Sun Chariot on good to firm, but the form looks strong as Mqse De Sevigne, the runner-up, has won four races since, three of them at Group 1 level.

    Before that, she beat Big Rock in the Prix Jacques le Marois before he impressively won QEII Stakes on Champions Day, so her form speaks for itself.

    Although she has been below par this season, John Gosden admitted she would need her run in the Lockinge and she gave herself some tough tasks in the Prince Of Wales’s and Prix Jacques le Marois due to some back breaks from the stalls.

    This race, however, is her easiest task in a long time, and the team at Clarehaven Stables have prepared her well for this contest thanks to some stalls work and a racecourse gallop.

    On what is probably her swansong, I think she can ride off into the sun with a victory.

     

    3:20 Redcar – Billboard Star @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Billboard Star has taken a bit of my money this year, but today is the day we finally get paid out.

    He is best at the weights by nine pounds and his form is one of a Group horse having chased home Whistlejacket in the July Stakes four starts ago.

    He then suffered interference during the Group 2 Richmond Stakes, form that looks good after The Waco Kid (5th) won last week’s Group 3 Somerville Tattersall Stakes, and he had a bad run through the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes on his next start.

    Although today’s soft ground should be fine, he did hang a bit on heavy ground on his last start in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes.

    Despite veering off to the left (away from the side that produced the 1-2), he ran well and he’s a horse I think plenty of.

     

    4:00 Longchamp – Ottery @ 16/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Avid watchers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel will know I highlighted Ottery for the Prix de Royallieu on Wednesday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe preview, and my opinion hasn’t changed.

    The ground isn’t as soft as I had hoped, but her dam, Longina, won a Group 2 on good and placed in the 2015 German Oaks on good to soft, so she doesn’t need bottomless ground.

    Both of her last two runs have suggested more is to come, notably when finishing s staying on third to Double Major in the Prix Maurice de Nieuil.

    The winner has since bolted up in another Group 2 under a penalty and is the closest market rival to Kyprios in today’s Cadran.

    Her next start in the Prix de Pomone caught the eye due to interference, but once she switched to the far side rail, she plugged on nicely.

    14 furlongs looks like her trip, so she is one to keep onside on Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe weekend.

  • Newmarket Cambridgeshire Day | London Gold Cup form

    Newmarket Cambridgeshire Day | London Gold Cup form

    The column found a welcome winner yesterday with Bubbling in the Rockfel Stakes, so let’s hope this starts a train of momentum into Newmarket Cambridgeshire Day.

    As of this morning, the ground is currently soft with a going stick reading of 6.3 which is expected.

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    1:50 Newmarket – Wimbledon Hawkeye @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    As long as he handles the softer conditions, Wimbledon Hawkeye has form in the book that gives him a strong chance here.

    Starting with the ground, although he has yet to race on the surface, his dam, Eva Marua, won twice on good to soft ground and once at Newmarket.

    His dam is also a half-sister to the Group 1 placed James Garfield who won a Group 3 on good to soft.

    His run when second in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes was good as he stayed on through the line over seven furlongs and he showed a similar trait when third in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes two starts ago.

    The form of the Acomb is working out as the fourth, The Waco Kid, won Thursday’s Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes and the seventh, Jouncy, finished second in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes next time out.

    Let’s hope the ground is fine for him (it will quicken up throughout the day) because he’ll have a great chance if so.

     

    2:40 Haydock – Woven @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    Heavy ground is the order of play at Haydock today, something that should work for Woven on his first start for 81 days.

    Connections, and punters, know that this horse goes well fresh as he nearly won on seasonal reappearance and his last win came on last year’s seasonal reappearance.

    He won off a mark of 83 that day, so today’s rating of 84 is workable and the horse who finished second that day, Aberama Gold, won five races later that season including the Stewards’ Cup.

    He’s a typical exposed handicapper who has a rating that he can win off on ground that suits him. He’s the usual type I fall for, but I can’t leave him alone.

     

    3:15 Haydock – Aberama Gold @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Because Aberama Gold hasn’t won in 11 runs this year, the handicapper has dropped the seven-year-old 15lbs this year.

    Despite what it may seem, the gelding by Heeraat has run some nice races in defeat all year without truly getting his preferred conditions.

    His losing run includes a third at Newmarket, a sixth in the Listed Hever Sprint Stakes, and a third to the subsequent Ayr Silver Cup winner Alfa Kellenic in the Ayr Gold Cup Trial.

    Looking back on last year, he won a five-furlong handicap on heavy ground off 96, the Stewards’ Cup over six furlongs on heavy ground off 95, and the Dash Handicap at York off 88.

    Today is an assignment over the minimum distance, which is a trip he has won over before, but he’s also won over six so we know he has stamina to use as well.

     

    3:40 Newmarket – Poniros @ 10/1 with Sky Bet (8 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    London Gold Cup form in most years is worth plenty, and this year is working out rather nicely.

    The winner, King’s Gambit, has a rating of 116 after three good runs in Group company and the fourth, Persica, won last week’s Listed Doonside Cup.

    So, it’s worth sticking with Poniros who finished a staying-on second that day at Newbury.

    The three-year-old by Golden Horn put in two poor performances subsequently, but his effort in the Chapel Down Handicap at Ascot earlier this month was good over 1m4f after a 56-day break.

    It’s a big-field handicap today, but a mark of 91 could see him well-treated here.

     

    4:35 Market Rasen – Our Champ @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Not only have the winter illnesses hit early this year, jumps fever is rising at a rapid rate of knots, so I’m going to Market Rasen for one selection today.

    Our Champ looked like a high-class animal last year, and good ground allowed him to strut his stuff.

    He started last year with a facile win at Plumpton before an equally easy success at Cheltenham off 117 on good ground.

    His next win occurred back at Plumpton in the Sussex Champion Hurdle after a 50-day break where he bolted up before finishing the season with a good third at Cheltenham.

    He arguably hit the front too soon at Prestbury Park and paid for that in the final furlong over 2m1f.

    He runs well when fresh, as shown by his win on seasonal reappearance and after a break for the Sussex Champion Hurdle, and the good ground at Market Rasen will suit him.

  • Cambridgeshire Meeting Day 2 | A Sweet chance

    Cambridgeshire Meeting Day 2 | A Sweet chance

    This weekend’s Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting has plenty of decent horses competing, though the heavy ground has made things interesting.

    Last week’s Ayr Gold Cup column found a winner with Sky Majesty at 5/2, but Whip Cracker and Relief Rally placing at win-only prices was annoying.

    I’m not proud of the current run of form, so let’s hope a change of tactics alters results.

     

    3:00 Newmarket – Bubbling @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    The performance of Formal impressed plenty at Leicester earlier this month, but Bubbling is a horse who can improve to win the Rockfel Stakes.

    She is a full sister to Wichita who finished second in Kameko’s Guineas, third in Pinatubo’s Dewhurst Stakes, and third in Palace Pier’s St James’s Palace Stakes.

    Bubbling bolted up at Galway at the end of July, and while the ground was officially yielding, the times suggested it was slow ground.

    On her latest start in the Listed Ingabelle Stakes, she had no route through the field under Ryan Moore for a long time, but once the gap opened up, she quickened up nicely to finish third.

    Her pedigree and what she has shown on the track stacks up to suggest winning the Rockfel is within her capabilities, so I’m backing her today.

     

    3:25 Haydock – Francisco’s Piece @ 2/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Over at Haydock, the five-furlong Class 2 nursery handicap is competitive, but sticking with Francisco’s Piece on his debut is my play.

    Having won on soft on debut, he took a step forward to finish second to Shadow Army (when giving five pounds away) who has since improved to a rating of 104 after his second in the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin and fourth in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes.

    On his next start, the Mayson colt beat Convo on heavy ground in the Listed Prix la Fleche before too disappointing efforts in good Group races back in the UK on good to firm ground.

    The return to slower conditions will suit nicely and his form stacks up.

     

    5:20 Newmarket – Sweet Reward @ 13/2 with William Hill (2 places) – 1pt EW

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    Four of Sweet Reward’s six career successes have occurred on ground softer than good to soft, three of which on soft ground, so today’s conditions should suit.

    Her latest win occurred at Goodwood in August 2023 off a mark of 83 in a Class 4 handicap when bolting up by five lengths, so his current mark of 82 is workable.

    On his two subsequent runs, he finished third in a Class 3 handicap at Chester from stall seven and then ran a good race in a Class 2 handicap at Goodwood.

    Rhoscolyn (1st) is a Goodwood specialist, Hafeet Alain (2nd) won his next start, and The Gatekeeper (4th) won the Balmoral Handicap on his next start.

    If back to his best after a disappointing effort last time out, his handicap mark allows him to make an impact.