Best Of Bets

Author: Ashley Symonds

  • Ascot Horse Racing Tips | Time to play

    Ascot Horse Racing Tips | Time to play

    This weekend is one to enjoy, with Ascot, Haydock, and Punchestown taking centre stage.

    That Morgiana Hurdle, the return of Galopin Des Champs, and the first UK Grade 1 race of the 2023/24 season are all on this weekend, so enjoy the next few days.

    Anyway, a few horses caught my eye for Ascot on Friday, so let’s dive in.

     

    1:30 Ascot – Wade Out @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’m taking a chance that Wade Out has sharpened up his jumping since his first run over hurdles at Uttoxeter last month.

    He scrambled over a few of the flights on his hurdles debut, but he’s entitled to improve for the experience and there’s no questioning the engine he showed that day.

    The second, We’re Red And Blue, was race-fit and went on to win a maiden hurdle on his next start to frank the form.

    The third, Knight Of Allen, had Grade 1 aspirations put upon him by Jane Williams at the start of the season as well, so beating him by over five lengths is notable.

    However, there’s no getting away from the fact that this race is a hot one.

    Celtic Dino looked good in a winnable race at Wincanton last month, Joyeuse comes from the family of Epatante and won a fair race at Taunton last year, and Royal Infantry was a nice bumper horse who started his career over hurdles well at Chepstow earlier this month.

    However, I have no reason to ditch Wade Out here and I still look back at the turn of foot he showed in his Market Rasen bumper success fondly.

    This is his first big test, so let’s see how he handles it.

     

    2:05 Ascot – Persian Time @ 11/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    Nicky Henderson’s Persian Time has circled my mind for a few weeks now, but finally connections have pulled the trigger on declaring him.

    He held an entry for the Grand Sefton a few weeks ago, but speaking to Ella McNeill of the McNeill Family, she said he just needed a bit more time to get over his seasonal reappearance.

    That suggests he needed his first run of the season.

    He’s a bulky horse, but he likes slightly faster ground as he has three victories on good to soft next to his name.

    The latest came in March at Kempton when Henderson’s stable form was massively out, so the performance is upgraded notably.

    Furthermore, he beat Soul Icon over 2m2f that day who has improved 10lbs since having nearly won the Summer Plate and Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices’ Chase.

    Beau Balko also finished third that day and he won a Wincanton recently.

    The six-year-old by Califet also has an Ascot success next to his name having beaten Homme Public in December 2023.

    He was fortunate that Authorised Speed fell that day, but the runner-up won at Doncaster on his next start.

    It will be interesting to see how he handles this 2m5f test, and with the Henderson stable form in much better nick than his last win (29% SR), his chance looks good off 134.

    Just of the rest, Corrigeen Rock off top weight would look like the obvious danger.

    He likes the surface, has good form with Thunder Rock, and goes well fresh.

     

    2:40 Ascot – Aucunrisque @ 11/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    It might be time to give up on Aucunrisque soon, but I’m willing to chance him at Ascot on Friday.

    Let’s get the facts straight. His last winning mark was 138 when winning the 2023 Betfair Hurdle, he ran to an RPR of 141 on his last visit to Ascot in November 2023, and six of his seven victories have come on ground better than good to soft.

    He keeps reeling me in due to his attractive handicap mark, but the fact Freddie Gordon claims five pounds off his current mark of 129 is too hard to ignore.

    He tends to ride a bit behind the bridle, but he showed plenty of promise on his last start at Cheltenham when Gordon couldn’t claim anything in the saddle, and the second (Norman Fletcher) won impressively off a three-pound higher mark on his next start at Huntingdon.

    His only start at Ascot saw him finish a fair fifth off 144 behind Boothill (second in the Shloer Chase last week), Frere d’Armes, Triple Trade (a winner on his next start), and Corrigeen Rock (a winner of the Scottish Champion Chase two starts later).

    Look, he isn’t the same horse as he once was, but an effective mark of 124 looks very attractive.

  • Cheltenham November Meeting Day 3 | It’s all Under Control

    Cheltenham November Meeting Day 3 | It’s all Under Control

    The final day of the Cheltenham November Meeting is here, and many will have one thing on their minds. Dysart Enos in the Greatwood.

    Yesterday’s column found the 1-3 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup as Il Ridoto won under a cool Freddie Gingell ride.

    With hopes of continuing the form, here are my fancies.

     

    1:45 Cheltenham – Leader In The Park @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’m taking a small chance that Leader In The Park is ready fitness-wise for today because he looks well-handicapped on his handicap and chase debut.

    Backing horses first-time-out this season is something I’ve tried to avoid when possible, so that is a note of caution against siding with him today, but he could well have too much in hand today.

    Also, on the point of fitness, the horse was ready to go when declared for his chase debut at Ascot two weeks ago before connections made him a non-runner due to the ground, so I hope the extra two weeks of work have brought him along nicely.

    Starting with the ground, he’s a winner on soft, but the course had 3mm of rainfall last night to add to the 3-5mm of watering (interesting call), so he should handle conditions.

    There’s also plenty of good ground form throughout his pedigree to help.

    We had Ben Pauling on the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast a few weeks ago, and he said that this six-year-old point-to-point winner was his best novice hurdler last year without showing his true potential.

    That’s a bold statement considering they had Tellherthename, a Supreme runner, and Personal Ambition in their novice hurdle squad last season, but it’s one worth noting down.

    On hurdles debut, he finished second to Paul Nicholls’ Farnoge and ahead of Excello who beat Solo over fences on his next start to frank the form.

    Off 121 today, he gets an eight-pound swing in the weights with the favourite, Peaky Boy, based on his Cheltenham run in April, and having sorted out an issue with his ribs, hopefully he can improve today.

     

    2:20 Cheltenham – Matata @ 13/8 @ William Hill – 2pt Win

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    This weekend’s previous two 2pt wins have both lost, so proceed with caution, but I like Matata in the two-mile handicap chase.

    Calico beat him at Cheltenham last meeting, but Dan Skelton’s eight-year-old went well fresh and Matata was taken on from the front by Dancing On My Own.

    One can imagine that he’ll get an easy lead today due to the small field, and hopefully with a run under his belt, his typical freshness will settle down better today.

    There’s a one-pound swing in the weights towards Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old, and while that won’t make much difference, it will help.

    His form with Libberty Hunter, JPR One, Master Chewy, Strong Leader, Luccia, and Inthepocket is the best in here, so I hope he reverses the places today.

     

    2:55 Cheltenham – Does He Know @ 5/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Does He Know looks like a sound each-way bet in the 3m3f handicap chase, a race he won two years ago.

    He won off 152 that day when beating a subsequent winner Eva’s Oskar, so today’s rating of 150 makes him well-treated on that effort.

    The handicapper dropped him two pounds for his first run of the season last month, but the performance was better on the eye than the 15-and-a-half-length defeat would suggest.

    He attempted to make all against some nice horses that day. The winner, Senior Chief, could be a Grand National horse this year and the third, Broadway Boy, is on the Coral Gold Cup shortlist.

    He’s a dower stayer, as shown by his win in this two years ago and his Grimthorpe Handicap Chase success in March, and with a run under his belt, he should go well here.

     

    3:30 Cheltenham – Under Control @ 10/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    I think there’s a well-handicapped mare in this field, though I’m not talking about Dysart Enos.

    Last year, I thought Under Control was a certainty off 137 in the Gerry Feilden but she finished 179 lengths behind the winner. Shrood.

    However, she wasn’t right that day at Newbury and she improved to finish second in the Grade 2 Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle in January when splitting Ashroe Diamond and Gala Marceau.

    The former was a Grade 1 winner who had Marine Nationale and Irish Point form and the latter finished the season by chasing home Lossiemouth in the Grade 1 Mares Champion Hurdle.

    On her final start of the 2022-23 season, she beat Iberico Lord off level weights in the novices’ championship final at Sandown.

    The form of this race is red hot as the second won the Greatwood and Betfair Hurdle last year, the fourth, General Medrano, improved 11lbs over fences and the sixth, Tapley, has improved 12lbs since.

    She loves a nice surface rather than soft winter ground, so hopefully she goes well here.

     

    3:30 Cheltenham – Florida Dreams @ 25/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    However, at a bigger price to Under Control, Florida Dreams can outrun his odds here.

    Having won a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree on his final start of the 2022-23 season, last year didn’t go to plan as he won just once over hurdles.

    The bumper form of that win is worth noting though as Esprit Du Potier, rated 128 over hurdles, finished sixth, Masaccio, rated 137 over fences, finished seventh, Go To War, rated 123 over hurdles, finished eighth, and Samui, rated 104 on the Flat, finished ninth.

    The promising Blizzard Of Oz, Hasthing, and Bowenspark were further up the field, and while they haven’t shown too much yet, they could improve notably this season.

    On his final start of last season, he finished a fair eighth when two pounds out of the handicap in the Scottish Champion Hurdle.

    Rubaud and L’Eau du Sud have franked the form of the race already.

    After a success on seasonal reappearance last time out, connections have applied the first-time cheekpieces to help sharpen him up.

    He needs to improve, but there’s enough form in the book to suggest he can off 127 with a run under his belt.

  • Cheltenham November Meeting Day 2 | Don’t Lookaway

    Cheltenham November Meeting Day 2 | Don’t Lookaway

    Buddy One slightly disappointed the column yesterday, but we roll on to day two of the Cheltenham November Meeting.

    The Paddy Power Gold Cup headlines the action today, though the rest of the action looks interesting from a punting perspective as well.

    Let’s roll on.

     

    1:45 Cheltenham – Lookaway @ 3/1 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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    I’ve banged the drum of Lookaway for the Arkle Trial all week, though it’s sad enough to see his price so short compared to his ante-post price of 10/1.

    Still, the case for him remains.

    His Grade 2 success over Kamsinas, Idy Wood, Williethebuilder, Toto Too, and Act Of Authority from last season continues to work out in the form book and he improved nicely through the campaign.

    He tried to give 6lbs away to Iberico Lord in the Greatwood Hurdle when he finished second, and the third from that race, Luccia, completed the season by finishing third in the Champion Hurdle.

    Nemean Lion, the fifth, went on to win a Grade 2 hurdle later in the season as well.

    After that, he was a good second in the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle and the race looks like a good piece of form with Captain Teague, The Jukebox Man, Johnnywho, and Masaccio.

    Although that came on heavy and he finished third in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle on soft as well, he has an action that looks to suit good ground, and he showed that off when winning on chase debut at Uttoxeter earlier this month.

    Beating Personal Ambition, a Grade 2 novice hurdle winner, on his first start over fences was a good effort and he has plenty in his favour here, notably the ground and course.

    Furthermore, although L’Eau du Sud has good form in the book, I’m worried about him on the ground.

    He won on heavy in France, he was second twice last season on heavy, and his dam won on heavy.

    Dan Skelton declared him as a non-runner on good ground in April 2023 and October 2024 which would also be a worry.

     

    2:20 Cheltenham – Il Ridoto @ 8/1 and Lets Go Champ @ 11/1 – 1pt Win for both

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    I found the Paddy Power Gold Cup a tough race to decipher this year, which I suppose is a good thing in the grand scheme of things, but Il Ridoto and Lets Go Champ makes the most appeal.

    Starting with the former, he’s my usual bet in this kind of race, which is a worry.

    His attractive mark of 138 (which is actually 141 due to Protektorat’s inclusion in the race) is like a big pot of gold, and Freddie Gingell’s three-pound claim in the saddle is the big arrow in the sky pointing down to it.

    The seven-year-old was fourth in the 2022 renewal off 140 when Ga Law had a 13-pound lower rating and French Dynamite had a three-pound lower rating.

    He ran a solid race last year to finish third, though both of his last runs in the Paddy Power came as his first run of the season.

    Today, he arrives as a race-fit horse, and he won off 138 when beating Fugitif in January 2023.

    As for Lets Go Champ, he’s an improver for Henry de Bromhead and his mark of 141 looks workable to the eye.

    He held nice company in Ireland over both hurdles and fences, notably when behind Nick Rockett (rated 150), Embassy Gardens (rated 150), and Tactical Move (rated 145).

    He’ll appreciate the ground as he won at the Punchestown Festival on good to yielding in May.

    Mike O’Connor claims a nice three pounds off his back as well, so he can continue his improvement this weekend.

     

    2:55 Cheltenham – Thanksforthehelp @ 7/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    There’s a good chance that Thanksforthehelp can run well off a workable mark of 118 in the three-mile handicap hurdle.

    He bolted up at Chepstow in February 2023 off 117 on good to soft ground before starting as favourite in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival.

    He ran no sort of race that day, but his previous runs suggest that good ground is what he likes.

    In April 2022, he ran on handicap debut in a 2m4f Punchestown handicap hurdle off 109.

    The winner, Life In The Park, is now rated 143 over fences, the second, Rock Road, had a rating of 137 over fences before his fatal injury, and the fifth, Stumptown, holds a rating of 149 over fences.

    That is good form, and the race occurred on good to yielding ground.

    If he recreates any of those efforts this weekend, he will run a big race at a nice price.

     

    4:00 Cheltenham – Siog Geal @ 6/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Fergal O’Brien has a strong hand in the concluding mares’ bumper, but Siog Geal gets the nod over Strong Run.

    She is a well-regarded horse at Ravenswell Farm having won a point-to-point in February 2024, the form of which already looks nice as the second, Jasmine d’Airy, won on bumper debut in May 2024 by six lengths.

    Since joining O’Brien’s stable, she finished an eye-catching second to Kapability when given plenty to do by Jonathan Burke, and she’ll come on for it nicely.

    That run came on good ground and she is the choice of Burke for Saturday’s assignment which is always a good sign.

    At 13/2, she looks like a nice each-way bet.

  • Cheltenham November Meeting Day 1 | Buddy up

    Cheltenham November Meeting Day 1 | Buddy up

    The next three days at the Cheltenham November Meeting is always a good weekend for jumps fans

    Yes, the field sizes have fallen short due to good ground, but we still have some classy horses to shout about with Jonbon and Potters Charm.

    So, here are my fancies for day one.

     

    1:10 Cheltenham – Littlefoot @ 20/1 with Bet365 (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The British handicapper has been harsh to Littlefoot by giving him six pounds just for crossing the Irish Sea, but I think there’s enough in his form book to suggest he can outrun his odds.

    This selection is based purely on form as he finished a nose second to Lucky Lyreen who is now rated 133 on bumper debut in December 2022.

    After that, he finished second to the now 150-rated chaser Nick Rockett and second to the three-time Grade 1 winner Dancing City.

    That bumper form in early 2023 is nice, and he went on to run well in a bumper behind Walk Away Harry at the 2023 Punchestown Festival.

    He found himself squeezed between runners that day, but all the right horses (Irish Panther, Dr Eggman, Lecky Watson, and He’s My Hero) finished ahead of him that day.

    Two starts ago, he broke his maiden at Ballinrobe off a very slow pace before finishing a promising third in handicap company in September.

    The cheekpieces that were first applied two starts ago remain for this weekend’s challenge, and you get the impression that this has been a plan considering his regular rider is the conditional jockey Liam McKenna.

    He needs to show he can handle this company, but with his age and profile, he’s not the worst 20/1-shot in the world.

     

    1:45 Cheltenham – Buddy One @ 7/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Buddy One was the wrong price earlier this week, and I explained this on both X and the Only Fools Love Horses podcast.

    His current price of 7/2 is probably about right if not a touch too big for a horse of his ability.

    He is the only one of these horses to run well in Grade 1 hurdle events, notably in the Stayers’ Hurdle, Liverpool Hurdle, and Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown.

    Considering he gets 3lbs and 5lbs in weight from Hyland and Springwell Bay respectively, he’s definitely best at the weights.

    Furthermore, of his three trips to Cheltenham, he’s won a handicap on the Old Course, finished third in the 2023 Martin Pipe, and finished fourth in the already mentioned 2024 Stayers’ Hurdle.

    So, he likes Cheltenham, and he likes good ground.

    That’s because he won on chase debut on the surface earlier this season and he finished second to Sa Fureur in a Grade 3 novice hurdle on good in February 2023.

    It was bold from connections to send him into open company against Heart Wood and Corbetts Cross last time out, and although his jumping wasn’t amazing, making all at a slow pace on soft ground probably didn’t suit him.

    I half believe connections have planned Buddy One for this race due to his liking for Prestbury Park, so with the class he has under the bonnet, he should go well here.

     

    2:55 Cheltenham – Busselton @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Joseph O’Brien revealed in his stable tour with Sporting Life that Busselton has schooled over cross country fences recently, so I hope he takes to the course at Cheltenham on Friday.

    O’Brien has kept him fit through the summer with four runs since June, one of which was a winning one.

    That’s a positive, and he also likes good ground based on his previous form.

    His notable efforts include his second in the 2022 Blazers Handicap on good to yielding, a race that saw Fan De Blues (the third) improve to win two more handicap chases.

    After that, he won the Kerry National over three miles on good ground when Hewick, a subsequent King George winner, fell at the last.

    On those pieces of form, a mark of 141 is workable this weekend in what looks a winnable race.

    Just looking at the head of the market, Conflated, as much as he’s a decent animal, would have concerns on good ground and he’s not a guaranteed stayer over an extended 3m5f.

    Sweet David could cause some issues as he has some nice French form with my beloved Roi Mage and he’s a cross country specialist.

    However, out of not knowing too much about him, Busselton is my fancy.

  • Aintree Grand Sefton Day | Aintree is an Art

    Aintree Grand Sefton Day | Aintree is an Art

    Djelo came close to landing yesterday’s Haldon Gold Cup for the column but JPR One got the better of him, so hopefully we get the rub of the green on Aintree Grand Sefton Day.

    Yesterday was a tough one for jumps fans, highlighted by the walkover in the three-mile novice chase.

    There’s not a magical answer that will solve the problems in national hunt racing, but after days like yesterday, it’s almost worth praying for one to fall into our lap.

    Anyway, let’s dive in.

     

    1:08 Wincanton – Beau Balko @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    The first chase race of the day from Wincanton has attracted just five runners and I think Beau Balko can win for Paul Nicholls.

    Starting with his form, he nearly beat the subsequent Greatwood Hurdle winner Iberico Lord in a Stratford novice hurdle before finishing fifth in a hot renewal of the 2023 Novices’ Championship Final at Sandown.

    Those two efforts came in soft conditions, but he has won on good to soft twice before and run well on a fast surface.

    He jumps fences nicely and he was a good third at Kempton in March.

    That piece of form is one I have an eye on as the winner, Persian War, will win a nice handicap chase this season and the second, Soul Icon, has improved 11lbs since.

    Soul Icon also has Graded form with the Grade 1 runner-up Master Chewy and Grade 1 winner Nickle Back.

    With a run under his belt for race fitness last month, I’m hoping a step up in trip can encourage improvement. This is also a race Nicholls has won four times before across the last 10 renewals

     

    1:30 Aintree – Wiillaston @ 9/1 with Ladbrokes (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    Willaston showed enough on his first start of the season to suggest he’s back to his usual self, and he deserves plenty of respect here.

    Last season, he beat Bold Endeavour twice, the latter off 126 at Haydock when travelling notably well, who reappears here off a one-pound higher mark.

    On that form, he has the beating of him, and other bits of form give him a great chance on Saturday off his workable rating of 126.

    In April 2023, he beat Lallygag, who has improved three pounds since after two wins, Supreme Gift, who has improved 10 pounds, and Scarface, a decent novice handicap chaser last season.

    His first run of this season came over 2m4f, so this return to three miles will suit and the good ground is also a positive.

     

    2:40 Aintree – Authorized Art @ 20/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    He’s not chucked in, he’s not a well-handicapped horse, and this is his first stab at the Grand National fences, but I think Authorized Art is worth a bet in the Grand Sefton.

    Carrying top weight in handicaps like this isn’t an easy task, but it’s only 2m5f and it’s on the better side of good to soft.

    He also has previous experience at carrying larger racing weights.

    He lobbed around Punchetsown in May when third to the well-handicapped Lets Go Champ and Must Be Obeyed off 11-11 and he was fourth in the 2023 Kerry National with 11-8 on his back.

    All the right horses were around him that day, notably Desertmore House, Salvador Ziggy, Foxy Jacks, The Goffer, Chemical Energy, Ain’t That A Shame, Life In The Park, and Hurricane Georgie.

    A mark of 153 is on the steep side, but Caoilin Quinn claims a valuable three pounds off his back and better ground works for him nicely,

    He beat the now 158-rated Ash Tree Meadow by nine lengths in a Grade 3 novice chase two years ago on good to yielding and he had a rating of 151 when third at Punchestown earlier this year.

    After a good pipe opener for his new yard last month when third to Rubaud over hurdles, he has the right profile to go well here.

     

    3:30 Wincanton – Lord Accord @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    He’s not a value bet in the Badger Beer, but there’s plenty to like about Lord Accord.

    Firstly, he was second in the race two years ago when beaten by the mighty Frodon, and that came off a mark of 136.

    Furthermore, he won at Cheltenham off 131 one month previously and he won off 130 in October 2021, so today’s chase mark of 128 had him well-treated.

    Furthermore, he’s race-fit after two runs already this season, and he’s one who will appreciate the good ground.

    Because of his age, the handicapper only raised him five pounds for his 16-length success last month when he could have brandished him with a much harsher penalty.

    All in, he has a solid chance and Neil Mulholland has targetted this race for a while, so he should go close.

  • Haldon Gold Cup Day | Venetia Wonderland

    Haldon Gold Cup Day | Venetia Wonderland

    The Haldon Gold Cup looks like a fascinating race this year with potential Grade 1 horses looking to kick their seasons off on the front foot.

    Below, I voice my thoughts on the race with one further bet at Exeter to mention.

    But first, a look back on last week.

    Successes with Our Champ and The Real Whacker put the column in profit by 9.3pts (15% ROI) for November and 45.85pts since March 2024 (10% ROI).

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    2:25 Exeter – Djelo @ 5/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’ll start this piece on the Haldon Gold Cup with a caveat.

    How far Etalon can continue to improve is a big unknown, and his form of beating Martator (now rated 140) is solid, but the reason I’m leaving him alone is due to ground conditions (unraced on good) and the fact it’s his first run of the season as well.

    He is a danger in my book, but Djelo has plenty of upsides that are hard to ignore.

    He gets two pounds from JPR One, the now second favourite, yet his form is arguably better on paper.

    On seasonal reappearance last year, he beat Master Chewy when getting two pounds in weight. Master Chewy went on to bolt up in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase before nearly beating Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase.

    In his next two starts, Djelo beat the subsequent winner Persian Time at Newbury before smashing up the now 145-rated Kandoo Kid in the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase.

    That win came on good to soft and the race was run just 6.77 seconds slower than average, so the ground was fairly fast.

    He was disappointing at the Aintree Grand National Festival, but that was his seventh run of the season and it came after a respectable third in a hot renewal of the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase.

    Venetia Williams hasn’t had too many runners recently, but of her four representatives over the last two weeks, Martator won and Galop De Chasse finished second.

    That yard form is promising, and I think he’s the best horse in this race.

     

    3:35 Exeter – Coco Mademoiselle @ 2/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    I always try to find the big-priced value, but Coco Mademoiselle appeals the most in the penultimate race.

    Only a few here are race-fit, notably Tightenourbelts, Tea Clipper, and Coco Mademoiselle, and while the former has a fair chased based on the form book, the stable form of Emma Lavelle is a worry.

    The favourite, however, is trained by Dan Skelton who is in sound form at the moment (26% strike rate) and her run at Worcester 42 days ago will put on spot on for today.

    The third, Weveallbeencaught, ran a solid race behind Lisnamult Lad at the Cheltenham October Meeting to frank the form as well.

    She gets five pounds from Beachcomber and seven pounds from Tightenourbelts which looks good based on her form in the book.

    Four starts ago, she gave seven pounds away to Springtime Promise – a subsequent Grade 2 winner – in a Huntington novice hurdle before she finished the season with a second in a valuable mares’ handicap hurdle at Ayr

    From that race, Saylavee (3rd) beat the smart Zanahiyr over fences, Ottizzini (4th) bolted up at Ayr earlier this month, and Pink In The Park (5th) won a Listed chase yesterday.

    Off 122, she can easily improve over fences and will strip fitter for her run in September.

  • Breeders Cup Day 2 Frosty reception

    Breeders Cup Day 2 Frosty reception

    Yesterday at the Breeders’ Cup didn’t go to plan for the column, but the fancies over jumps performed well today.

    The Real Whacker and Our Champ delivered at Wetherby and Ascot respectively to put the column in good profit for the weekend.

    So, let’s roll on with today’s Breeders’ Cup selections.

    19:00 Del Mar – Frost At Dawn @ 20/1 with Bet365 (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    I’m not an expert when it comes to dirt racing, but Frost At Dawn is certainly interesting in the Filly & Mare Sprint.

    The booking of Frankie Dettori is eye-catching and she has some nice form in the book, notably when winning in Meydan earlier this year.

    She beat Star Of Mystery that day who went on to place in two Group 1s and a Group 2 subsequently.

    She won easily that day and the fourth, Ponntos, was a fine fifth in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes subsequently.

    Although Frost At Dawn has raced mainly on the turf, she has some fine experience on dirt, notably when second at Meydan in December.

    I think she has plenty of ability and her form is working out nicely.

    She also has a nice draw in one and gets weight from her elders, so she’s worth a chance at a big price.

    21:01 Del Mar – Emily Upjohn @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    It’s a case of last chance saloon for Emily Upjohn this evening, though there is reason to think she can return to her best.

    Firstly, Frankie Dettori returns to the saddle and secondly, she gets to run on quick ground.

    When was the last time she had these conditions? At Epsom last year when rocketing home in the Group 1 Coronation Cup.

    The second, Westover, won a Group 1 on his next start and then finished second in both the King George at Ascot and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.

    As for her form this season, she travelled like the winner in the Yorkshire Oaks but didn’t find much. Her finishing effort was disappointing, but she arguably got to the front too early that day.

    On her last start, she finished a staying on third to the subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking, so the form is there.

    22:25 Del Mar – Content @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    There’s a chance that Content could be too good in the Filly & Mare.

    As mentioned, she won the Yorkshire Oaks on good to firm ground and she also finished fourth at the Breeders’ Cup last year on firm ground.

    So, there’s hope she’ll handle the ground nicely, and there’s a lot to like about her form.

    She finished a staying on third to Bluestocking and Emily Upjohn in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh in June.

    Furthermore, Mistral Star, who finished fourth in the Yorkshire Oaks, finished third in the Group 1 Prix de Royallieu to further frank the form of the race.

    She has a good chance tonight if she settles early as she can get quite hot-headed.

    23:45 Del Mar – Notable Speech @ 9/4 with Coral – 2pt Win

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    The Mile looks like a good race and Porta Fortuna is a formidable opponent, but Notable Speech has greatly impressed me this season.

    His Guineas success speaks for itself, though it’s worth reminding what the form of the race looks like.

    Subsequently, Rosallion won two Group 1s, Haatem won the Group 3 Jersey Stakes, Ghostwriter finished third in Coral-Eclipse and Juddmonte International, and Inisherin won the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup.

    Notable Speech won a fine renewal of the Group 1 Sussex Stakes two starts later and the third, Facteur Cheval, chased home Charyn in the QEII last month.

    He looks like the type who will really appreciate fast-paced American racing as he has a high cruising speed and a good turn of foot.

    He’s smart, and I hope he shows that tonight.

  • Charlie Hall Chase Day | Bow to the Saint

    Charlie Hall Chase Day | Bow to the Saint

    It’s a big day of racing today as the Charlie Hall Chase takes centre stage before the action from Del Mar returns this evening.

    This article will highlight my bets for the domestic jumps action.

    Let’s dive in.

     

    2:05 Ascot – Saint Segal @ 11/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Starting at Ascot, a cliff horse will carry my money once again as Saint Segal runs in the two-mile handicap chase.

    The six-year-old ran in this race last year and looked like the winner before falling at the last fence, and the form of the contest was boosted subsequently as Boothill completed the season by finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase at Sandown.

    His rating is one pound lower this year and Jane Williams has targeted this race for a while.

    With a prep run under his belt, he should run well on his second start after a wind op.

     

    2:40 Down Royal – Hewick @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Some will call it bold to take on Gerri Colombe in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase, but there is reason to back Hewick.

    He has a run under his belt this season already and he’ll enjoy the good ground which is a small worry for the short-priced favourite.

    Furthermore, he doesn’t have to find too much on form to win as he was second to Fastorslow and Galopin Des Champs at Punchestown over an extended three miles and he beat a nice field in last year’s King George.

    With the uncertainties about Gerri Colombe on his first start of the season, Hewick looks like a sound bet at 5/1.

     

    2:58 Wetherby – The Real Whacker @ 15/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Today may very well be the day that The Real Whacker wins.

    He’s been my ultimate cliff horse since he won the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase in 2023 and has been expensive to follow.

    His form is well-known, but why should you back him today?

    Well, he’ll come on for his run in the Kerry National, he won on good ground in November 2022, and he gets weight from French Dynamite.

    With a few potentially needing the run, he has the ability to buck out from the front and put them all to the sword.

     

    3:15 Ascot – Our Champ @ 14/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Our Champ isn’t the best-handicapped horse we’ve ever seen, but he gets his conditions today and can show his talent in Berkshire.

    Chris Gordon got a nice prep run into him at Market Rasen in late September and Freddie Gordon returns to the saddle to claim five pounds off his official rating of 131.

    The six-year-old improved massively last year and he showed his ability when bolting up in the Sussex Champion Hurdle off 122.

    He likes good ground, and with the worry that a few in here may need the run, he should go well fresh.

  • Breeders Cup 2024 Day 1 Wathnan and Watson

    Breeders Cup 2024 Day 1 Wathnan and Watson

    This weekend is somewhat of a fantasy for racing fans across the globe as the Breeders’ Cup, Charlie Hall Chase, and Ladbrokes Champion Chase are set to occur within 24 hours.

    City Of Troy, Bravemansgame, Gerri Colombe, Hewick, Lake Victoria, Fierceness, Notable Speech, Emily Upjohn, Luccia, Conflated, Bradsell, Rebel’s Romance, and more are set to run over the next few days.

    What a time to be a racing fan.

    Before we start, it’s worth sharing October’s stats for the column.

    After a good weekend at Cheltenham last week, the column sat at +20.5pts for October at an ROI of 31% from 67pts staked. It was by far the best month, and the column (since March 2024) sits at +36.55pts with an ROI of 9%.

    In this piece, I’ll share my bets for day one at the Breeders’ Cup.

     

    12:55 Uttoxeter – Sunset Marquesa @ 2/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Starting at Uttoxeter of all places, Sunset Marquesa can kickstart her career over hurdles with a win today.

    Having won a bumper at Aintree on debut, she ran in a decent Cheltenham mares’ bumper (fourth) before taking on the subsequent Grade 2 winner Diva Luna at Market Rasen in a Listed bumper.

    She finished a fair third that day and then completed her season by staying on through the line at Sandown when behind Honky Tonk Highway.

    What do all of her final three starts of last season have in common? Soft ground.

    This Walk In The Park five-year-old is a half-sister to Drumlee Sunset and Land League, both of whom won (and preferred) good ground, and her dam, Be My Sunset, is a half-sister to the once 142-rated The Jigsaw Man who did his best work in the summer jumping sphere for Rebecca Curtis.

    Funnily enough, his final start came in the Grade 1 A.P. Smith Memorial Chase on firm ground when finishing a respectable seventh.

    She’s still growing, so a return to better ground should suit her nicely, and Joe Tizzard highlighted her as a novice hurdler to follow this year.

    As for her form, the Market Rasen race has obviously worked out well, but the second (Listentoyourheart) finished fifth in the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at Aintree before bolting up by 10 lengths on her hurdles debut.

     

    21:45 Del Mar – Aesterius @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I voiced my fandom for Aesterius on this week’s Only Fools Love Podcast as I think there’s plenty to like.

    He’s a proper five-furlong sprinter and he showed plenty of speed to beat Big Mojo in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes.

    What impressed me was his ability to run petty much on his own in the final two furlongs whilst simultaneously outbattling a stronger-travelling Big Mojo.

    Like Whistlejacket, who is a danger if he can handle stall seven, he comes from the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes which is one of the two-year-old races that is working out well from Royal Ascot.

    He’s got a nice draw in two, has good form on quick ground, and is ultimately quite sound.

    He has plenty of upsides, so I’m keeping him onside.

     

    23:05 Del Mar – Vixen @ 40/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    In what will probably be my only American-trained bet of the weekend, Vixen is a horse that caught my eye earlier this week.

    The filly by Vekoma has had just the three runs, winning one, placing in a Grade 1 in another, and placing in her other race.

    Her latest appearance came in that Grade 1 at Woodbine in September where she finished second in a 1-2-3 for Mark Casse.

    She came quite wide around the pack and did well to gallop through the line considering both the winner and third had easier routes through the race.

    Furthermore, the winner (And One More Time) is a well-bred filly as she is a half to the Grade 2 winner Honor D Lady and Listed-placed Churchtown.

    She also had Mountain Breeze eight lengths behind her that day who was second to Lake Victoria in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes two starts ago and fourth to Fairy Godmother in the Group 3 Albany Strakes four starts ago.

    My American form isn’t top-notch, but she seems a reasonable each-way play despite her negative draw in 13.

     

    00:25 Del Mar – Al Qudra @ 11/2 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is one of the toughest contests of the evening, but Al Qudra ticks the most boxes and has the least to prove.

    He is 2-1 up against New Century, and while the two-year-old by Kameko was a worthy winner of the Grade 1 Summer Stakes in September, Godolphin’s No Nay Never juvenile experienced interference with one furlong to go.

    Before that, Al Qudra impressively beat New Century in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes having finished fifth in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes one start earlier.

    Rashabar, the winner, has placed in two Group 1s since and Cool Hoof Luke won the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes two starts later to frank the form.

    I’m half surprised that William Buick chose Aomori City before the draw was announced as in a Racing Post piece done in July, Charlie Appleby said: “Over the last few weeks, we’ve had horses working over the top of him [Aomori City], such as Al Qudra and a couple of maidens.”

    Has Aomori City shown a marked improvement since? That’s something only a few connected to the horse will know, but you get the sense that Buick wanted to swap mounts once the draw came out.

    Stall four for Al Qudra is beneficial, while stall 12 for Aomori City is the opposite.

    For these reasons, Al Qudra has my vote.

  • Aintree Old Roan Chase Day | Kamsinas can

    Aintree Old Roan Chase Day | Kamsinas can

    After two days of great racing at Cheltenham, Aintree’s Old Roan Chase Day headlines Sunday’s action on ITV and Racing TV.

    This game tames lions, so when you land a nice-priced winner once in a while, it’s only fair to celebrate within reason.

    Yesterday, Lisnamult Lad won at 20/1 and Givemefive landed the spoils at 7/2 to put the column in good profit for the weekend.

    Hoping to continue the form, here are today’s main plays.

     

    1:15 Aintree – Petit Tonnerre @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’m not a huge fan of backing Jonjo O’Neill-trained horses first-time-out, but it’s hard to leave Petit Tonnerre alone in the second at Aintree.

    Speaking of the stable’s form, a few of their horses have needed the run, but both Johnnywho and Anyharminasking have flown the flag for the stable in good races on their seasonal return this week.

    For a while, Petit Tonnerre was badly handicapped based on his French form of beating Heart Wood (now rated 151), but the handicapper has relented to give him a mark of 125 now.

    That’s 10lbs below his last winning mark (February 2022), 14lbs below his mark when second to Red Risk in November 2022, and 15lbs below the rating he had when seventh in the 2023 County Hurdle.

    During his time over fences last season, he finished second in a Grade 2 on his seasonal reappearance last year, so he does look extremely well-handicapped.

    He also won on his first start for the yard after a 165-day break and he placed on good ground in November 2022.

    Honestly, a mark of 125 should see him go very close if he’s ready to roll.

     

    2:25 Aintree – Torn And Frayed @ 5/2 with Bet365 – 1pt Win

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    It only feels like last week since Torn And Frayed won a valuable 2m4f handicap chase on Trials Day in January 2022, so it’s amazing to see him now in veterans’ races!

    I didn’t fancy him that day, but I remember reviewing the race as a very young lad! Just look at that haircut!

    Speaking of the race, that occurred on good ground which is similar conditions to today, and he won on good ground in a novice hurdle the season prior.

    He won off 131 on that day at Cheltenham, so today’s official rating of 126 makes him well-handicapped

    Furthermore, he runs well fresh as he finished a good third behind Annual Invictus on his seasonal reappearance in 2021 and, for a horse running after a 658-day break, his effort in the 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup was admirable too.

    He gets his ground today and could have the class edge against some more experienced rivals.

     

    2:42 Wincanton – Le Ligerien @ 9/2 with Bet365 – 1pt Win

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    Le Ligerien has a good record when fresh and this Unibet Middle Distance Chase Series Venerans’ Handicap Chase Qualifier looks like a winnable race.

    He won on yard debut for Joe Tizzard in February 2023 and his last two winning marks were 124 and 130, so today’s rating of 124 is workable.

    After his last win, which came in this middle distance series at Kempton, he ran a brilliant race off 135 at Cheltenham but didn’t stay up the hill.

    He’s seemingly in good form despite his age of 11, and he’s won on good ground four times before, so conditions should suit.

     

    3:35 Aintree – Kamsinas @ 5/1 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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    Although he has nearly top weight to carry, Kamsinas should have the class in the 2m handicap hurdle.

    This seven-year-old did really well last year for Fergal O’Brien, starting with a facile Worcester success before finishing second to Lookaway in the Grade 2 Sky Bet Novices’ Hurdle.

    The winner went on to finish second in the Greatwood, second in the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle, and third in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle.

    Furthermore, the third (Idy Wood) won off 120 on his chase debut this week, the fourth (Williethebuilder) is rated 125, the fifth (Toto Too) is rated 132, and the sixth (Act Of Authority) is rated 126.

    So, with a rating of 130, he should improve past this mark based on that form.

    After that race, he won the Grade 2 Newton Novices’ Hurdle when beating Making Headway (now rated 127) and I Love My Baie (now rated 130), so the form is solid.

    He won on good in February 2023 and this is one of his easiest races for a long time, so hopefully he can kickstart his season with a win today.

     

    4:08 Aintree – Siog Geal @ 5/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    It’s a rare selection from me in a bumper, especially for a horse on their first start, but I want to keep Siog Geal on my side.

    There are good rumours that she is showing pleasing signs at home, and the form of her four-and-a-half-length point-to-point success has worked out.

    The second, Jasmine d’Airy, bolted up on debut for Sam Curling at Tipperary and is now trained by Harry Derham after being sold for £120,000.

    Jasmine d’Airy also chased home The Big Westerner, Henry de Bromhead’s £120,000 purchase, on her final point-to-point start.

    As for Siog Geal’s pedigree, her dam is an unraced half-sister to a few half-decent Flat horses, notably Silver Quay who placed in a Class 2 handicap before going over obstacles.

    5/2 seems like a fair price for this debutante with good form in the book already.