Author: Ashley Symonds

The Long Walk Hurdle headlines the action from Ascot today, and the surrounding card is very nice.

Very quickly, the P/L sits on 12.85pts for the month at an ROI of 49%, so the overall column is 54.9pts in profit at an ROI of 10%.

Anyway, let’s dive in.

 

1:50 Ascot – Fil Dor @ 13/2 with Betfair – 1pt Win

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The graduation chase at Ascot on Saturday is a great race that includes three Irish horses, and I think Fil Dor could take this.

He’s race-fit, something Jungle Boogie and James Du Berlais lack, and I’ve always thought he would need a trip in time.

When running in juvenile races, he showed plenty of stamina, notably when staying-on behind Vauban in the 2022 Triumph Hurdle, but connections have waited to step him probably up in trip.

They milled about at two miles over fences for a while, and when he did step up in trip, he ran over hurdles in the 2023 Coral Cup.

Last season went better for him as he finished second to both Dinoblue and El Fabiolo over two miles, though the second half of the campaign petered out slightly.

Conditions should work and I’m happy to chance him at the prices.

 

2:25 Ascot – Blueking d’Oroux @ 12/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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Blueking d’Oroux produced a nice run on seasonal reappearance last month and, much like my selection in the last race, I’m hopeful he’ll come on for the run.

He finished around some nice horses in the Ascot Hurdle last month and he did well considering the race occurred on good ground over 2m3f.

Lucky Place, fourth in the Coral Cup, won the contest with the talented Golden Ace back in fourth when getting 10lbs from Blueking d’Oroux.

Although he won on seasonal reappearance last campaign, he produced a much better performance when beating Strong Leader over 2m3f on his next start which is obviously strong form.

He’s now five, so he could still improve, and I think he can turn into a lovely stayer this season.

He seems like a solid each-way prospect.

 

2:25 Ascot – Kateira @ 12/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 0.5pt EW

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However, I also want Kateira on my side as she can progress enough to win this.

Her Jango Baie form from Aintree is very good, and that specific form line got a little boost yesterday as Personal Ambition, the horse who beat him in the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle last season, should have won the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase at Ascot yesterday if not for his final fence mistake.

As a novice hurdler, she finished second in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle to Irish Point, and she was ahead of Hermes Allen, Letsbeclearaboutit, You Wear It Well, Springwell Bay, and Crambo that day.

The slightly better ground will suit her and I’m hoping the nature of Ascot will allow her to get three miles here.

 

3:00 Ascot – Flegmatik @ 11/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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Based on yesterday, it looked like a sound surface at Ascot, and that should play into the hands of Flegmatik off a good mark.

His last winking mark was 137, but Tristan Durrell claimed 3lbs that day, so today’s rating of 134 has him well-handicapped.

He beat a nice horse during his last win as Chianti Classico, the subsequent Ultima winner, finished second to him at Kempton in January on good to soft ground.

He also ran well off 140 twice last season in the Coral Trophy and another Kempton handicap, so three miles around Ascot will work.

Dan Skelton may have bigger targets for him in the new year, but he’s well-weighted to go nicely here and the conditions suit him.

 

3:35 Ascot – Kabral Du Mathan @ 4/1 with William Hill\ – 1pt Win

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At an ante-post stage, Kabral Du Mathan looked a nice price, but his price has become tight now.

Still, much like when you’re pot-committed in poker, I’m calling to see what he produces.

He’s wildly unexposed for Paul Nicholls as he’s won all three of his starts, two of which for his current connections.

In a time when Nicholls’ horses have come on for their runs, the four-year-old looked smart when winning off 123 on handicap debut at Kempton last month.

Hopefully, he comes on for that even further, because if he does, he could well turn into a Graded animal in no time at all.

With a generous rating of 131 now, many horses have to give this classy horse weight and the better ground conditions should work.

The December Gold Cup headlines the Cheltenham December Meeting this weekend, and the card around it is very competitive.

Before we start, here’s a quick review of the P/L prior to this weekend.

With eight points staked on Tingle Creek Weekend, the P/L sits at +4.05pts at an ROI of 51%.

As for yesterday, having calculated the scores on the doors, we made 0.4pts of profit. Yes, the champagne is on ice.

That’s a nice start; all can change, however.

So, let’s dive in.

 

12:40 Cheltenham – Moon D’Orange @ 25/1 with Paddy Power (3 places) – 1pt EW

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There’s one lurking at a big price in the second race, and hopefully he’s got a few pounds up his sleeve.

The horse is Moon D’Orange back under the care of John McConnell after a spell with Fergal O’Brien.

When based in Gloucestershire, he ran at the April meeting over hurdles off 130 on the day Paddy Brennan retired.

I know it’s not gospel, but when speaking to O’Brien post-race, he thought this was the horse that would send Brennan off into retirement, and that’s probably the reason he went off the 4/1 favourite in a hot handicap.

Before that, he beat Emailandy who went on to finish second in the valuable novices’ handicap hurdle at Sandown. After that, he also won at Plumpton and has form with Jingko Blue and Masaccio from Newbury in December.

When with McConnell in 2023, he finished second to Johnnywho at Carlisle in a novice hurdle that produced the recent Kelso winner Whistle Stop Tour.

For a horse that prefers good ground, he stayed on nicely over three miles in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s December Meeting on soft.

Destroytheevidence, who reopposes off 137 tomorrow, finished second, so with a nine-pound difference, there’s hope he’ll reverse that form on better ground.

Kerryhill placed fourth that day as well and he won the Grade 2 River Don Novices’ Hurdle subsequently to further frank the form.

Interestingly, he wore cheekpieces at Cheltenham that day, and he also had them on for his Market Rasen success.

They were left off for his Punchestown chase debut and his run at Cheltenham in October, so it’s nice to see them return here.

Although he’s the rank outsider, that’s a fair case made.

 

1:13 Cheltenham – Coco Mademoiselle @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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Coco Mademoiselle was a bet on Haldon Gold Cup Day for the column before connections declared him a non-runner, and while she has a 78-day break to defy, she is an obvious improver off 122.

Dan Skelton is in mighty form currently with a current strike rate of 25%, and that run at Worcester in September will bring her on fitness-wise.

From that race, the third, Weveallbeencaught, ran a solid race behind Lisnamult Lad at the Cheltenham October Meeting to frank the form as well.

As for her other form, she gave seven pounds away to Springtime Promise – a subsequent Grade 2 winner – in a Huntington novice hurdle before she finished the season with a second in a valuable mares’ handicap hurdle at Ayr.

From that race, Saylavee (3^rd) beat the smart Zanahiyr over fences, Ottizzini (4^th) bolted up at Ayr in November, and Pink In The Park (5^th) won a Listed chase last month.

Off 122, she can easily improve over fences and will strip fitter for her run in September.

 

1:50 Cheltenham – Gemirande @ 11/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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With the lack of Pinkerton in the contest, the December Gold Cup is already a loser for me at this stage, but I’m hopeful Gemirande can recover the losses.

He was a part of Venetia Wonderland last month when winning at Ascot off 128, so the handicapper gave him eight pounds for the success.

That seems fairly fine in my book and the two horses who finished behind him – Nocte Volatus and Terresita – had race fitness on their side.

He appreciates better ground and he ran well around the course and distance before when third in a handicap at the 2023 Cheltenham April Meeting.

This is a career-high mark, but he gets in off a featherweight of 10-2 and is interesting here.

 

2:05 Doncaster – Sail Away @ 12/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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Over at Doncaster, for my sins, I’m with Sail Away, one of my notorious cliff horses.

He’s back down to his last winning mark of 136, a rating he carried to success on good ground at Ayr in April 2023 when bolting up by 11 lengths.

He jumped the field into submission that day when making all to beat Forward Plan when giving 11 pounds away.

Since then, he’s not had the best time of things, but he finished a good fourth in the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase over course and distance off 142 last season.

He also finished 10 lengths behind Pic D’Orhy in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase in February which is good form however you look at it.

He had a pipe-opener at Chepstow in October before Harry Skelton held him up at Newbury in November which was a weird tactic. The gallant grey is a notorious front-runner, so the tactics were a surprise before he fell at the fourth-last when travelling well.

The handicapper dropped him two pounds for that effort, which is very kind, and I think he has a solid chance here.

 

3:35 Cheltenham – Take No Chances @ 6/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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She has top weight to overcome, but Take No Chances is capable of rising to the task in the finale.

She had a tough time of things in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle last time out, though she still finished a creditable fifth alongside Tellherthename.

That isn’t the form to focus on; her comfortable defeat of Hyland at Warwick over three miles last season is the performance highlight as Hyland is rated 14 pounds higher now.

She stays three miles, but she won over two miles at the start of this season and the key to her is good ground.

To my eye, she’s still unexposed in handicaps as there are excuses for her two handicap defeats.

She raced far too wide at Cartmel in May over 3m1f on her sixth start of the season and she finished third at Chepstow on her first start of the season, though that form with Doyen Quest looks attractive now.

The Cheltenham December Meeting is here and any weekend with Prestbury Park action is a good one.

We had an ante-post bet on the December Gold Cup in the bag going into today’s declarations, but Pinkerton wasn’t declared. Sad.

Just a quick word to the P/L after November, it took a slight turn two weekends ago.

Before the Coral Gold Cup Weekend, we had 17.35pts profit, but after the weekend, we had 5.5pts. Ouch.

We live and we most certainly learn.

Anyway, let’s dive into Friday’s selections.

 

12:10 Cheltenham – Wingmen @ 5/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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In the opener at Cheltenham, Wingmen is very interesting, though it’s not for the reasons you may think.

Because I have no life and an endless amount of time on my hands, I looked over the Cheltenham Festival novice hurdle markets the other day.

I saw Wingmen at 25/1 for the Albert Bartlett having won over 2m4f at Navan last month and I thought ‘hmm, he could feasibly stay three miles’.

So, to my delight, I saw him declared for 2m1f at Cheltenham on Friday. Who’s the real shrood here?

But, looking into his form, maybe I was too harsh on labelling him as a stayer just yet.

Wingmen won two bumpers last season, the latest was a nice one at the Punchestown Festival where he looked very impressive.

He took the race up very quickly from the front and went into a lengthy lead, but when the field came back to him with six furlongs to go, he stretched away again. He showed his stamina this day, but he also showed a very nice turn of foot.

The second, Queensbury Boy, is a nice Harry Derham horse and the third, The Passing Wise, has won two bumpers since at odds of 8/13 and 11/10.

Since then, he won on hurdles debut at Navan and the second, Forty Coats, finished a fine second to the nifty James’s Gate at Punchestown since.

He needs to improve his hurdling, that’s for sure, but he has some nice form in the book, and he has the ability.

 

1:15 Cheltenham – Wreckless Eric @ 7/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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There was plenty to like about what Wreckless Eric did at the Cheltenham November Meeting.

He sat well off the pace and raced wide all the way around, yet when they turned for home, he showed a really nice turn of foot to challenge at the last and fly past Cavern Club and Balhambar.

The front three pulled well clear of Fasol and Razzle Dazzle Boy, two horses separated by only a neck in a handicap on the Friday of last weekend’s Tingle Creek meeting.

He’s a big improver as his opening mark last season was 108, but he likes better ground, so he’s still capable of defying an eight-pound raise in the handicap.

Valgrand has something to prove off 139 and Willmount is having his first run of the season, so that gives reasons to take them on, and I don’t think he’s fully exposed yet.

 

1:50 Cheltenham – Our Power @ 20/1 with Ladbrokes (3 places) – 1pt EW

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The fourth race at Cheltenham is interesting as it surrounds Chianti Clasico and his lofty rating of 157.

I love him, he’s a great horse, but a mark of 157 might cause him a few issues. At the prices, I’ll let him win and if he does, I’ll stand at the front of the queue to clap him in.

So, Our Power is my play here.

He won at Ascot in October 2022 after a 228-day break before winning last year’s Coral Trophy Handicap Chase off a 119-day break, so he should go well fresh.

In the back of my mind, he might have something like the 2025 Coral Trophy as his target, but he gets his ground this weekend and that is too hard to pass on, surely?

He’s officially rated 143 now which is 2lbs above his last winning mark, but Dylan Johnston takes off a valuable 3lbs to put him nicely handicapped here.

 

2:25 Cheltenham – Shan Blue @ 6/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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During the Only Fools Love Horses Cheltenham preview on Wednesday, I highlighted Shan Blue as a potential one for the veterans’ handicap chase, and I have no reason to change.

Ever since he fell in the 2021 Charlie Hall Chase, he’s had a few issues, notably when pulling up on three separate occasions.

However, his recent efforts offer hope that he is in good form to run well off 141.

Two starts ago, he ran a great race to finish third to Threeunderthrufive at Ascot over three miles. He made all this day over the trip and just faded late-on, but it was still a good effort.

He blew off the cobwebs at Bangor last month over three miles on soft ground, and I hope the combination of better ground and race fitness will bring him on plenty for this weekend.

If that does, his form is right there from previous years, and I like the step down in trip to 2m4f.

He finished second to Shishkin as a novice hurdler and second in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase in February 2021.

With plenty of form on a sounder surface, notably when winning twice on good to soft ground at Wetherby in 2020, he should go well here.

 

3:00 Cheltenham – Chemical Energy @ 25/1 with Bet365 (5 places) – 0.5pt EW

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I’m adding a late entry to the column here, but Chemical Energy is a horse I don’t want to leave alone in the Cross Country.

Yes, this is a new discipline for him, but he’s nicely handicapped and can make an impact in a race that tends to be easier than most.

I actually had him pencilled down for the 3m2f handicap chase at the entry stage and when originally writing the column, I missed that Gordon Elliott declared him here instead.

That’s a notable decision from connections to come over and go straight to the cross-country course. Maybe he’s having a sighter, but surely this hypothesis is more likely with Delta Work and Coko Beach with their lofty marks rather than him?

The eight-year-old by Well Chosen likes good ground and he does stay. He nearly won the National Hunt Chase in 2023 over 3m6f if not for soft ground stunting his effort in the final furlong.

For a horse of his ability, a mark of 146 is more than fair considering most of the horses around him are on similar marks and have more questions to answer.

I’ll keep my stakes small, but he’s the 11th-hour choice.

I don’t often play ante-post tips in this column, but one horse stands out to me in the December Gold Cup and I think his price could shorten considerably.

Of course, the danger with any ante-post play is whether the horse is confirmed, but there’s reason to believe that this play will run.

So, let’s dive in.

 

December Gold Cup – Pinkerton @ 16/1 with Bet365 (3 places) – 1pt EW

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Noel Meade’s Pinkerton is my fancy in this weekend’s feature handicap, but let’s start with whether he’s a likely runner.

In an article published in The Irish Field on Monday, Meade said “he’s a probable runner” and there’s “a good chance he’ll run” if his Tuesday morning work went well.

For more information, click here to view the full article on The Irish Field website.

He also mentioned that his bloods were a bit off a few weeks ago, so they were sorting out a few tests.

Hopefully, they come back positively, because if all is okay, I can see a market move occurring here.

His last two dives into handicap company saw him win, the latest occurring in July when landing the Galway Plate.

The company he held here when beating the likes of Duffle Coat, Zanahiyr, Life In The Park, Chemical Energy, Lets Go Champ, Hurricane Georgie, Perceval Legallois, Amirite, and Idas Boy is strong, potentially stronger than many British-trained horses in here.

Furthermore, on a direct line through form, finishing eight-and-a-half lengths ahead of Lets Go Champ, who went on to finish a six-length third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, puts him right there with Il Ridoto, Ga Law, Madara, and Fugitif.

Yes, his rating of 147 is nine pounds higher than that last winning mark, but the British handicapper gave him no raise for travelling over the Irish Sea, which is kind.

 

Can he defy this career-high mark of 147?

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Quite simply, I believe so.

As a novice hurdler, he mixed it with Journey With Me (rated 160) and as a novice chaser, he finished behind Imagine (rated 144) and Inothewayurthinkin (rated 158) on his chase debut.

On his chase handicap debut, he even beat Saint Roi, Solness (two-time winner subsequently), and Path d’Oroux.

He did race off 130 that day, admittedly, so he was chucked in.

He jumped slickly and economically on his most recent run but found Found A Fifty, a Grade 1-winning novice hurdler, too good despite getting a stone in weight from the winner.

Found A Fifty went on to win another Grade 2 under a penalty to frank the form partially.

Although he wouldn’t want rattling fast ground, the drying conditions at Prestbury Park should help him nicely. He won on good in the Galway Plate and yielding at the Punchestown Festival.

He looks to have a good chance here in what looks like a competitive race.

On Tingle Creek Day, it’s a good time to reflect on that season from Kauto Star in 2006/07.

Yes, it’s not original, but he’s my all-time favourite horse and to win the Tingle Creek, King George, and Gold Cup in the same season will never happen again.

Hopefully, my Saturday selections can somewhat replicate that level of historical greatness, so let’s give these fancies a go.

 

1:15 Sandown – Henri The Second @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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Once upon a time, I thought Henri The Second would win a Challow Novices’ Hurdle.

With a current rating of 125, it’s fair to say I got it slightly wrong.

In fairness, he did win the Grade 2 Winter Novices’ Hurdle in 2022 when beating Henry’s Friend, fifth in last week’s Coral Gold Cup, but he’s had a fair share of issues since.

His form over hurdles and in bumpers is really smart. He beat Authorised Speed in an Ascot bumper three years ago and then finished second to Chianti Classico at Chepstow two starts later.

Last season, he didn’t take to fences and then had 364 days off the track before his reappearance at Sandown last month when he finished a fine fourth of nine.

He’ll come on plenty for that considering he wasn’t asked too many questions, and softer conditions should suit him nicely.

I think he’s better than his current rating, and considering he’s a half-brother to Enrilo, the step up to three miles should encourage further improvement.

 

1:32 Aintree – No Risk Des Flos @ 11/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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As Andrew Blair White attests, following No Risk Des Flos is for the brave and bold.

I’ve never backed him before, but Saturday is where that changes as he looks well-weighted to go nicely.

His last winning mark was 134 and he also won off 127 before that, so a current rating of 126 gives him a chance, especially considering the handicapper dropped him 1lb for finishing second to L’Eau du Sud at Stratford in October.

Olly Murphy tried him over three miles towards the end of last season which he didn’t enjoy. For a 1m7f winner, it was a big ask.

You can understand why he attempted the trip. He’s a half-brother to Vision Des Flos who beat Royale Pagaille in a novice chase over three miles, but his best efforts came over 2m4f or shorter.

Arguably, his best efforts of the last two seasons have come when fairly fresh.

He won on his second start of the season two years ago and he finished a fair third on his second start of the season 12 months ago.

Saturday is his second start after a wind-op, and with his lenient mark, I’m chancing him here.

 

2:25 Sandown – Spirit d’Aunou @ 11/1 with Bet365 (3 places) – 1pt EW

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By the power of deduction, I don’t have a reason to oppose last year’s winner Spirit d’Aunou off a workable mark of 133.

Willmount may need the run, Altobelli has the Ladbroke as his big aim, I have questions about Nemean Lion and Knickerblockerglory off their current marks, Stream Of Stars should dislike the ground, and Zambezi Fix may lack the class.

Knickerblockerglory could make me look silly as he won first-time-out last season and I’m worried about Royal Way, the other Gary & Josh Moore-trained runner, on his third run in a handicap, but I think there are upsides to backing Spirit d’Aunou.

As mentioned, he won this last year when putting 17 lengths between himself and the third Punta Del Este, a horse who improved 13lbs subsequently.

He runs off just a four-pound higher mark and Niall Houlihan has, I assume, chosen him over his younger stablemate.

He loves softer conditions and he travels so well into his races. Hopefully, connections have earmarked this day for him as he looks to have a great chance.

December really is a Christmas dream for jumps fans, and the Tingle Creek kicks off this month in fine style.

Jonbon, Quilixios, L’Eau du Sud, Master Chewy, Rubaud, and JPR One are all set to hit Sandown this weekend.

So, let’s dive into Friday’s selections.

 

1:58 Sandown – Quebecois @ 5/2 with Paddy Power – 2pt Win

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My long-term love for Quebecois is well-known, and I think he can win the Winter Novices’ Hurdle.

The feature novice hurdle at Sandown on Friday is fiercely competitive with Bill Joyce and Kingston Pride also in the field, but there’s a nice form line to suggest Paul Nicholls’ five-year-old has the former’s beating.

On his rules debut, Quebecois sauntered to success when beating Jack Black by five-and-a-quarter lengths; Jack Black went on to finish third to Bill Joyce, beaten four-and-a-quarter lengths, at Warwick when the winner needed a bit of drive from Jonjo O’Neill Jnr.

After that Exeter win, connections decided to save Quebecois for the Champion Bumper. It was a bold call to give him a three-month break before sending him into a tough bumper on just his second rules start, and ultimately, he didn’t enjoy the experience.

Fast forward to this season and he bolted up at Chepstow by eight lengths on hurdles debut.

As is well-known this season, Paul Nicholls’ runners have needed their first runs, so to do that on seasonal reappearance is commendable.

You might remember that his win at Chepstow came 30 minutes after The New Lion dotted up for the Skeltons.

Although The New Lion ran a much quicker overall time, only half a second separated both of their efforts from the third-last hurdle to the line, though The New Lion did it hard-held compared to Harry Cobden’s intermittent shakes of the reins.

It seems like the boss of Ditcheat has big targets for this son of No Risk At All, notably the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle, so I’m keeping him onside.

 

2:33 Sandown – Handstands @ 11/4 with Paddy Power – 1pt Win

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As much as Resplendent Grey is in good form and Welcom To Cartries is well-regarded in Ditcheat, I like the profile of Handstands in this field.

He looks like the typical type to improve for three miles as he is a Getaway half to the three-time three-mile winner Kilconny Bridge, and he wasn’t stopping when he won over 2m3f in the Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle last season.

Rain is set to hit the track today to add to the good to soft conditions, and Sandown tends to ride on the softer side anyway, so he’ll appreciate the conditions.

Handstands was a better hurdler than Resplendent Grey, Welcom To Cartries is making his first start of the season (as is Saint Davy), and one would hope Handstands is better than Cadell and Riskintheground.

With his Jango Baie and Bugise Seagull form, I’ll chance him here.

 

3:03 Sandown – Passing Well @ 13/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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The 13/2 available for Passing Well seems more than reasonable, and I think he has a great chance in the three-mile handicap chase.

He made a good seasonal reappearance at Sandown last month, but it’s worth noting he does go well fresh.

He went close to landing a bumper at the Punchestown Festival in 2022 off a 110-day break, he won on hurdles debut in 2022, and he finished second on chase debut in 2023.

The Coastal Path seven-year-old also won on his second start of last season and his form dropped off towards the back end of the previous campaign.

During that win, he beat two subsequent winners (Heva Rose and Invincible Nao) and then he went to Newbury.

He finished a good third that day behind the subsequent Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase winner Henry’s Friend, and he stayed on through the line on soft ground over 2m6f.

Furthermore, although he was last of four on his final start of the season, Martator, the winner, improved 33 lbs, and Ioupy Collonges, the second, won his next start at Perth.

With an unchanged mark of 123 after his second last time out, a race that saw him come up against two race-fit horses in El Rio and Mole Court, he looks to have a great chance here.

The Coral Gold Cup headlines Saturday’s action from Newbury with the Fighting Fifth holding down the fought over at Newcastle.

Yesterday’s column found an obvious winner with Kalif Du Berlais at 11/8, but the rest disappointed, and the less said about Saint Segal’s start the better.

So, let’s dive into Saturday’s selections.

 

12:40 Newbury – Le Milos @ 17/2 with Paddy Power (3 places) – 1pt EW

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Dan Skelton wanted to run Le Milos at Haydock last week before the ground turned properly soft, so hopefully the better conditions at Newbury will see him run well on Saturday.

He’s had a tough time of things since he won the 2022 Coral Gold Cup off 146, but he beat a subsequent winner in Remastered that day as well as the future Ultima and Grand National winner Corach Rambler.

Fast forward 15 months and connections fancied him to run well in the Pertemps, as shown by his 6/1 SP, but he disappointed before running a commendable race in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown.

The handicapper dropped him 3lbs to 144 after a spin around Cheltenham last month where he travelled powerfully down the hill before taking a blow.

When speaking to Skelton at the Coral Gold Cup gallops morning last week, he made a point of mentioning him and I hope that means he’s showing all the right signs at home.

If he is, the 17/2 on offer looks tempting to play in the Sir Peter O’Sullevan.

 

2:25 Newbury – Liari @ 7/1 with Coral (4 places) – 1pt EW

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The Gerry Feilden is a hot race, as it usually is to be fair, but I’m staying loyal to Liari.

Last month, Charlie Davies, assistant trainer to Paul Nicholls, said he was hopeful of Liari becoming a graded hurdler this season.

It was a bold statement to make, but there’s a good chance he’s on the money.

Firstly, the Cracksman gelding is only four, so he has scope to improve as he matures despite performing at a decent level already last season.

On his second start of last season, he beat Knight Of Allen in deplorable conditions at Aintree. Jane Williams’ four-year-old went on to win at Chepstow, finish third to the smart Wade Out, and finish third in the valuable 2m3f handicap hurdle on Betfair Chase Day at Haydock.

Liari then bolted up at Musselburgh under a penalty before bombing out in the Fred Winter, but that wasn’t his true running.

Paul Nicholls’ horses needed their first runs in October, so his third at Chepstow on seasonal reappearance is admirable.

He has race fitness on a few in here, so hopefully he goes well.

 

3:00 Newbury – Broadway Boy @ 7/1 with William Hill & Henry’s Friend @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW both

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As voiced on the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast earlier this week, Broadway Boy and Henry’s Friend are my picks for the Coral Gold Cup.

Starting with the former, he ran a good race on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham when third to Senior Chief.

He gets a 10lb swing in the weights with Senior Chief and the slightly softer ground will help him to reverse that form.

He showed plenty of ability last year, notably when second to the subsequent Kerry National winner Flooring Porter at Cheltenham when giving 5lbs away.

Broadway Boy then bolted up at Prestbury Park in November 2023 before beating Threeunderthrufive, a subsequent Swinley Handicap Chase winner, and Protektorat, a subsequent Ryanair Chase winner, at Cheltenham in December.

After a few disappointing runs, his mark of 148 looks lenient as he’s only 2lbs higher than that last winning mark.

As for Henry’s Friend, there’s plenty to like.

The handicapper dropped him 3lbs after the National Hunt Chase (which is kind) and Ben Pauling got a pipe opener into him over hurdles earlier this month.

He showed a lot of potential when winning the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase last season with the first-time cheekpieces applied, and after a spin over hurdles, the headgear returns.

Apple Away let down his Reynoldstown form on Wednesday, but I rated Kilbeg King based on his Kauto Star form, and he gets weight from most of his rivals.

 

3:20 Newcastle – Bowtogreatness @ 13/2 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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No prizes for guessing my bet in the Rehearsal Chase as Bowtogreatness will carry my money.

He got his career back on track at Newbury earlier this month when beating the impressive Chepstow winner Destroytheevidence, with the pair pulling 11 lengths clear of the third, Rock My Way.

The handicapper only gave him 4lbs for the effort which looks lenient in my book considering he finished third in the Coral Trophy off 133 and second to Midnight River in the 2023 William Hill Handicap Chase at the Aintree Grand National Festival off 132.

Good ground is expected at Newcastle this weekend, and while a few won’t appreciate this, Ben Pauling’s eight-year-old won on good last time out.

Furthermore, having spoken to Pauling at Newbury on Friday, he has minimal concerns about the conditions.

In his post-race interview after his last win, Pauling said: “It’s a shame he’s not in the Coral Gold Cup.”

Like me, he must think plenty of him, so hopefully, Bowtogreatness can make the 512-mile round trip worth it off his mark of 133.

 

3:35 Newbury – Petit Tonnerre @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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It caught me off guard at the Cheltenham November Meeting to see how strongly Petit Tonnerre was backed for the Arkle Trial.

He was a double-figure price in the morning, but he came into an SP of 15/2 before running like a drain.

Still, the return to handicap company should work nicely with a lenient mark of 127.

He began the season off 125 and finished a staying-on second to Imperial Saint who reopposes here, though Petit Tonnerre gets a 12lb positive swing in the weights.

He finished second in the 2023 renewal of the Arkle Trial behind the 138-rated Homme Public who went on to win at Doncaster off 139 two starts later.

His known form over the last two years makes him well-handicapped and the slightly better conditions at Newbury on Saturday will suit.

This weekend’s Coral Gold Cup isn’t a vintage renewal, but the two-day card at Newbury is ultimately interesting and open to placing a few bets on.

Before I dive into the selections, a quick review on the P&L.

This month, the P&L sits at +17.35 an ROI of 16.2%, leaving the total P&L at +53.9 with an ROI of 10.9%.

Right, that’s enough trumpeting for one day, here’s my fancies for Friday at Newbury.

 

12:45 Newbury – Kalif Du Berlais @ 11/8 with Coral – 2pt Win

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Look, this isn’t original, but I think a price of 11/8 is fair for Kalif Du Berlais.

I was really impressed by his chasing debut at Carlisle earlier this month which does seem strange to say considering he fell, but up to that point he looked quite professional for a four-year-old.

Paul Nicholls, knowing he okay from the incident, hasn’t wasted any time in getting him into handicap company because his mark of 135 (with the eight pound four-year-old allowance) looks nice.

As for his already established form, he beat Givemefive in the Adonis, who has since won the Masterson Holdings Hurdle, and Captain Marvellous, a facile winner at Warwick in October before sustaining a fatal injury.

He has the speed for this trip, Newbury is a fair track, and the ground works for him.

He’s an obvious favourite, but he’s also a horse I like a lot.

 

1:55 Newbury – Captain Teague @ 5/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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The Grade 2 John Francome Novices’ Chase is a fascinating race this year, but I think Paul Nicholls can repeat last year’s success with Captain Teague.

I know it’s easy to pick him because he beat The Jukebox Man, Johnnywho, and Masaccio in the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle last year, but I was actually a sceptic when it came to that performance for a long time.

I then watched the replay recently and thought he jumped sweetly on the whole from a prominent position, and his rivals had ample opportunity to pass him up the home straight.

He actually missed the third-last, and with The Jukebox Man, Johnnywho, and Lookaway right there, it would have been easy for him to come off the bridle and fade away.

However, Harry Cobden picked up the bridle quickly and he won nicely in the end.

He bolted up on chase debut at Exeter earlier this month (sorry, poor joke) and I think there are lots of upsides to him as a novice chaser this season.

I fear Johnnywho with his race fitness edge, though I do think Captain Teague is better, and I haven’t even needed to mention his 2023 Champion Bumper form with Fact To File, It’s For Me, Captain Cody, Lecky Watson, and Loughglynn yet.

Hopefully, he delivers on a big day for Paul Nicholls.

 

2:30 Newbury – Saint Segal @ 12/1 with William Hill (1pt EW) – 1pt EW

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Yes, I have booked the therapy session for Monday morning, and yes, I really don’t like owning money.

That’s right, Saint Segal is still on my nice list, though as we approach Christmas, he may well end up on the naughty list unless he starts repaying my faith.

I thought it would take a good horse to beat him at Ascot 27 days ago, and admittedly I was right as Martator (a subsequent facile 11-length winner on Betfair Chase day who is now rated 151) won, but it’s hard to make a case for the five other horses that crossed the line ahead of him that day.

Last time out, his jumping was inconsistent, he found himself a good six lengths off the pace, and Kotmask’s erratic jumping to the left of him probably didn’t help.

Helpfully, the handicapper dropped him four pounds for that effort to a mark of 131 which surely puts him in very dangerous territory.

I don’t want to keep quoting his form, but he was a certainty to beat Boothill at Ascot in November 2023 off 136 if not for falling at the last.

He also chased home First Flow, a Grade 1 winner in his heyday, at Lingfield off 139 in January 2024, so this eight-pound lower mark surely makes him categorically well-handicapped.

Yes, he might have regressed since, but he is only six, so I really hope this isn’t the case.

This 2m4f trip is new to him (in the UK) and I don’t hate it too much.

He thundered home when second to First Flow, he charged to the front when falling at Ascot over 2m1f, and he’s always found plenty off the bridle when on a going day.

He’s a bet here. Send help.

 

3:40 Newbury – Hugos New Horse @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW

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He’ll come on for the run, but I can’t get away from Hugos New Horse in the Newbury finale.

Because this is his first run of the season, I tried to find a horse against him, but it was hard to leave him unbacked.

The one who looked interesting was Annsam, but Evan Williams is 1/39 over the last two weeks, so that put me off.

It all pointed back to Hugos New Horse who has a lenient mark of 126, which is four pounds below the mark he had when third in Crambo in the 2023 Novices’ Handicap Final at Sandown.

On his final start of that season, he beat Persian Time at Ayr who won twice over fences subsequently and two starts previously, he gave three pounds away to Tightenourbelts (now rated 132) who won a handicap chase at Exeter earlier this month.

Last season didn’t go to plan for him, but he had a mid-season break and never really got going, so I’m happy to put a line through the whole campaign.

I think he has room to improve off his mark and tomorrow’s race looks like an easy enough one to do that in.

Ahead of John Durkan Day, this weekend’s selections have provided some nice profit for the column.

Winners with Aucunrisque (11/1), Trelawne (3/1), and Royale Pagaille (4/1) put us in a nice position ahead of a good renewal of the John Durkan today.

So, let’s dive in.

 

12:15 Uttoxeter – Farland @ 7/4 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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Firstly, although he is only five, Farland is becoming an expensive horse to follow for me.

Paul Nicholls and the team at Ditcheat think plenty of the horse, but he’s quirky which has counted against him so far this season.

His run at Chepstow was his seasonal reappearance, though Harry Cobden gave him plenty to do at Ffos Las 14 days ago.

Although this effort was disappointing, the winner (Crest Of Fortune) is a smart horse for Anthony Honeyball and today looks like an easier race.

Furthermore, Jay Tidball takes five pounds off his back today which is always handy.

He’s a winner on soft ground, so today’s cut in the surface should help and I’ll keep him on side today.

 

12:40 Punchestown – Riviere d’Etel @ 9/2 with Bet365 – 1pt Win

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Riviere D’Etel is a cliff horse of mine, and she is a tricky horse to catch, but when she’s right, she’s right.

Of her five successes, she has winning distances of 12, 11, 21, 12, and 33 lengths next to her name, and some of the horses that have beaten her in the past include Ferny Hollow, Blue Lord, Captain Guinness, and Allegorie De Vassy.

In my mind, she’s the classiest horse here and she gets weight from Risk Belle while also carrying the same weight as her nearest market rivals.

So why the switch to hurdles?

She was never the tidiest chaser, and she has to go right-handed because of her jumping, but even I’m surprised by this new move from connections.

She took to the smaller obstacles well on her seasonal reappearance last month when fourth to Jetara and the softer the ground, the better her chance gets.

I like this horse, and this looks like a winnable race.

 

2:25 Punchestown – Fastorslow @ 5/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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The John Durkan is a great race, and although this isn’t revolutionary news, I think Fastorslow has the most upsides.

Right, here is how I see his rivals.

Fact To File has to prove himself in open company and is his form all there? Spillane’s Tower falls into this category as well, while I do think Inothewayurthinkin is better than his 25/1 price suggests.

Galopin Des Champs comes on for his first runs and Willie Mullins admitted recently that he missed a few weeks of work, so I’ll leave this legend alone for now.

Grangeclere West has great form from Leopardstown, but this being his first run for 331 days after a few setbacks is a worry.

The rest need to prove themselves at this level, so it all points back to Fastorslow.

He won this race last year on his first run of the season, and he continued to show his good form for the rest of the season.

When beaten by Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup, he was coming off a break, and he then finished the season by beating the two-time Gold Cup winner at Punchestown.

Inothewayurthinkin is on the shortlist, but Gavin Cromwell’s slightly windy pre-race comments have put me off and I think he will have bigger targets later this year.

So, my vote for the John Durkan falls on Fastorslow, and it wouldn’t shock me to see his name in the Kempton Park racecard on Boxing Day later this year.

 

3:10 Uttoxeter – Ballybeg @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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Royale Pagaille’s course specialism for Haydock was part of the reason behind backing him yesterday, and the love Ballybeg has for Uttoxeter is duly noted.

His two victories and one second at the track shows he likes the course, and his mark of 121 is workable.

His last winning mark was 119, but his previous successful ratings came off 125 and 129 and two of those three handicap victories occurred on ground softer than soft.

Furthermore, Freddie Gordon takes the ride and his valuable claim of five pounds brings him down to an effective mark of 116.

He has a race under his belt and he drops into Class 4 company for the first time since he beat the subsequent two-time winner Malaita.

Hopefully, today is his day.

At the time of writing, I’m still yet to know the results of yesterday’s column, but with a graduation to attend on Friday, I’m sorting my Betfair Chase Day selections early.

Apart from that Florida Pearl, this weekend is truly a cracker, so above all else, just enjoy the racing.

Plenty of racing like this weekend can entice one into having too many bets, so keep it clear cut and the rest of the racing can remain untouched.

So, let’s begin.

 

1:15 Haydock – Fine Casting @ 20/1 & Knight Of Allen with 10/1 – 1pt EW both

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The 2m3f handicap hurdle is full of chances, though I thought Fine Casting and Knight Of Allen had good chances for different reasons.

Starting with the latter, I’m taking it on trust that he is better than 120 because he hasn’t exclusively shown this to date.

He ran a good race at Uttoxeter behind Wade Out when giving 5lbs away to the winner, but he looked like he needed the run that day.

Jane Williams highlighted the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle as his first big target pre-season, and while he’ll need to improve on his last effort to even run in the race, connections must think plenty of him.

He stuck on nicely last time out and finished a good second to the now 130-rated Liari on awful ground at Aintree in December 2023, so he could make light work of 120.

As for Fine Casting, he worked nicely at Newbury on Tuesday morning and is on a nice mark to do damage.

His last win came off 123 over course and distance in December 2022 and he went on to finish a good fourth in the 2023 Imperial Cup off 129.

He didn’t pick up over fences last year, though his third at Cheltenham to Libberty Hunter and Matata off 126 is notable, and he looked a very sound hurdler two seasons ago.

It’s his first run of the year, which is a worry, but he has the right attributes here.

 

1:50 Haydock – Trelawne @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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Kim Bailey has not hidden his excitement for Trelawne this season, and hopefully, the softening of the ground will allow him to make his seasonal reappearance.

He was my Coral Gold Cup horse a few months ago until they failed to get a prep run into him, and he actually went off shorter for the Ultima than his stablemate Chianti Classico.

When speaking to Bailey last season, he convinced me that Trelawne was equally as good if not a more talented horse than Chianti Classico.

Considering I was Chianti Classico’s biggest fan last year, that took some convincing.

He tipped along last year nicely without properly breaking through, though he showed plenty of promise when behind the likes of Ginny’s Destiny, Grey Dawning, and Colonel Harry.

Iroko is clearly a nice horse, but I feel like Trelawne is also full of talent and I want to keep him on side.

 

3:05 Haydock – Royale Pagaille @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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The Betfair Chase is a bit of a cracker this year.

Yes, it maybe doesn’t have the ‘wow factor’ of a Gold Cup winner, but it’s incredibly competitive and tricky to work out.

The horse I’ve landed on is Royale Pagaille as I think he might get conditions in his favour.

The ground is good currently, but rain overnight, throughout today, and the incoming boatload tomorrow afternoon is sure to ease the surface up to nearly soft. One can hope, anyway.

If that’s the case, Venetia Williams’ 10-year-old enters calculations.

He further moves up the ranks of working out when you consider he’s won two of his five seasonal reappearances.

One of his losses came against a truly impressive A Plus Tard, the other came at the hands of Bravemansgame, and the final one was his first run for the yard.

This is his Gold Cup, and I recognise that this phrase is sometimes overused, but he won this race on his first start of last season and he’s a four-time Haydock Park winner.

If the ground goes soft, that will rule against a few near the bottom of the market (notably Ahoy Senor, Hewick, The Real Whacker, and Bravemansgame), and I have a small question mark against Grey Dawning.

Overall, he has a sound chance despite his age of 10.

 

3:20 Ascot – Sans Bruit @ 11/2 & Marvel De Cerisy @ 13/2 – 1pt Win Both

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Much like the handicap at Haydock earlier in the day, I’m happy to play two horses in the 2m1f handicap chase at Ascot, but It’s just win-only on the pair.

Starting with Sans Bruit, he’s on a career-high mark and he didn’t get dropped in the handicap for his third in the Haldon Gold Cup.

However, that’s fine, because it was his first run of the season and it occurred on good ground rather than his preferred soft.

The horses ahead of him, JPR One and Djelo, look like bonified Graded horses and the former could even run nicely in Grade 1s later this season.

It’s hard to ignore what he did at Aintree in the Red Rum last season, and it’s equally hard to ignore the market move for him on the first day of the Grand National Festival.

I think he’s quite smart and there’s a chance we haven’t seen the best of him yet.

As for Marvel De Cerisy, he’s a familiar name to those who backed him for the 2023 Plate Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival when trained by Henry de Bromhead.

He finished ninth that day, though that year’s renewal looks smart thanks to Fugitif, Shakem Up’arry, Il Ridoto, and Bowtogreatness.

Before that, he gave seven pounds to the subsequent Mares’ Chase winner Impervious in a Wexford beginners chase and ran a good race before falling at the last.

Since moving back to France and changing trainers to Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm, he won his last two starts on heavy ground and gets in here off 136.

That looks like a workable mark, and the more rain the better.