This weekend’s Coral Gold Cup isn’t a vintage renewal, but the two-day card at Newbury is ultimately interesting and open to placing a few bets on.
Before I dive into the selections, a quick review on the P&L.
This month, the P&L sits at +17.35 an ROI of 16.2%, leaving the total P&L at +53.9 with an ROI of 10.9%.
Right, that’s enough trumpeting for one day, here’s my fancies for Friday at Newbury.
12:45 Newbury – Kalif Du Berlais @ 11/8 with Coral – 2pt Win
Look, this isn’t original, but I think a price of 11/8 is fair for Kalif Du Berlais.
I was really impressed by his chasing debut at Carlisle earlier this month which does seem strange to say considering he fell, but up to that point he looked quite professional for a four-year-old.
Paul Nicholls, knowing he okay from the incident, hasn’t wasted any time in getting him into handicap company because his mark of 135 (with the eight pound four-year-old allowance) looks nice.
As for his already established form, he beat Givemefive in the Adonis, who has since won the Masterson Holdings Hurdle, and Captain Marvellous, a facile winner at Warwick in October before sustaining a fatal injury.
He has the speed for this trip, Newbury is a fair track, and the ground works for him.
He’s an obvious favourite, but he’s also a horse I like a lot.
1:55 Newbury – Captain Teague @ 5/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win
The Grade 2 John Francome Novices’ Chase is a fascinating race this year, but I think Paul Nicholls can repeat last year’s success with Captain Teague.
I know it’s easy to pick him because he beat The Jukebox Man, Johnnywho, and Masaccio in the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle last year, but I was actually a sceptic when it came to that performance for a long time.
I then watched the replay recently and thought he jumped sweetly on the whole from a prominent position, and his rivals had ample opportunity to pass him up the home straight.
He actually missed the third-last, and with The Jukebox Man, Johnnywho, and Lookaway right there, it would have been easy for him to come off the bridle and fade away.
However, Harry Cobden picked up the bridle quickly and he won nicely in the end.
He bolted up on chase debut at Exeter earlier this month (sorry, poor joke) and I think there are lots of upsides to him as a novice chaser this season.
I fear Johnnywho with his race fitness edge, though I do think Captain Teague is better, and I haven’t even needed to mention his 2023 Champion Bumper form with Fact To File, It’s For Me, Captain Cody, Lecky Watson, and Loughglynn yet.
Hopefully, he delivers on a big day for Paul Nicholls.
2:30 Newbury – Saint Segal @ 12/1 with William Hill (1pt EW) – 1pt EW
Yes, I have booked the therapy session for Monday morning, and yes, I really don’t like owning money.
That’s right, Saint Segal is still on my nice list, though as we approach Christmas, he may well end up on the naughty list unless he starts repaying my faith.
I thought it would take a good horse to beat him at Ascot 27 days ago, and admittedly I was right as Martator (a subsequent facile 11-length winner on Betfair Chase day who is now rated 151) won, but it’s hard to make a case for the five other horses that crossed the line ahead of him that day.
Last time out, his jumping was inconsistent, he found himself a good six lengths off the pace, and Kotmask’s erratic jumping to the left of him probably didn’t help.
Helpfully, the handicapper dropped him four pounds for that effort to a mark of 131 which surely puts him in very dangerous territory.
I don’t want to keep quoting his form, but he was a certainty to beat Boothill at Ascot in November 2023 off 136 if not for falling at the last.
He also chased home First Flow, a Grade 1 winner in his heyday, at Lingfield off 139 in January 2024, so this eight-pound lower mark surely makes him categorically well-handicapped.
Yes, he might have regressed since, but he is only six, so I really hope this isn’t the case.
This 2m4f trip is new to him (in the UK) and I don’t hate it too much.
He thundered home when second to First Flow, he charged to the front when falling at Ascot over 2m1f, and he’s always found plenty off the bridle when on a going day.
He’s a bet here. Send help.
3:40 Newbury – Hugos New Horse @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW
He’ll come on for the run, but I can’t get away from Hugos New Horse in the Newbury finale.
Because this is his first run of the season, I tried to find a horse against him, but it was hard to leave him unbacked.
The one who looked interesting was Annsam, but Evan Williams is 1/39 over the last two weeks, so that put me off.
It all pointed back to Hugos New Horse who has a lenient mark of 126, which is four pounds below the mark he had when third in Crambo in the 2023 Novices’ Handicap Final at Sandown.
On his final start of that season, he beat Persian Time at Ayr who won twice over fences subsequently and two starts previously, he gave three pounds away to Tightenourbelts (now rated 132) who won a handicap chase at Exeter earlier this month.
Last season didn’t go to plan for him, but he had a mid-season break and never really got going, so I’m happy to put a line through the whole campaign.
I think he has room to improve off his mark and tomorrow’s race looks like an easy enough one to do that in.
