Newbury and Newcastle Saturday Racing Tips & Preview
Expert race previews, form notes and betting context
The Coral Gold Cup headlines Saturday’s action from Newbury with the Fighting Fifth holding down the fought over at Newcastle.
Yesterday’s column found an obvious winner with Kalif Du Berlais at 11/8, but the rest disappointed, and the less said about Saint Segal’s start the better.
So, let’s dive into Saturday’s selections.
12:40 Newbury – Le Milos @ 17/2 with Paddy Power (3 places) – 1pt EW
Dan Skelton wanted to run Le Milos at Haydock last week before the ground turned properly soft, so hopefully the better conditions at Newbury will see him run well on Saturday.
He’s had a tough time of things since he won the 2022 Coral Gold Cup off 146, but he beat a subsequent winner in Remastered that day as well as the future Ultima and Grand National winner Corach Rambler.
Fast forward 15 months and connections fancied him to run well in the Pertemps, as shown by his 6/1 SP, but he disappointed before running a commendable race in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown.
The handicapper dropped him 3lbs to 144 after a spin around Cheltenham last month where he travelled powerfully down the hill before taking a blow.
When speaking to Skelton at the Coral Gold Cup gallops morning last week, he made a point of mentioning him and I hope that means he’s showing all the right signs at home.
If he is, the 17/2 on offer looks tempting to play in the Sir Peter O’Sullevan.
2:25 Newbury – Liari @ 7/1 with Coral (4 places) – 1pt EW
The Gerry Feilden is a hot race, as it usually is to be fair, but I’m staying loyal to Liari.
Last month, Charlie Davies, assistant trainer to Paul Nicholls, said he was hopeful of Liari becoming a graded hurdler this season.
It was a bold statement to make, but there’s a good chance he’s on the money.
Firstly, the Cracksman gelding is only four, so he has scope to improve as he matures despite performing at a decent level already last season.
On his second start of last season, he beat Knight Of Allen in deplorable conditions at Aintree. Jane Williams’ four-year-old went on to win at Chepstow, finish third to the smart Wade Out, and finish third in the valuable 2m3f handicap hurdle on Betfair Chase Day at Haydock.
Liari then bolted up at Musselburgh under a penalty before bombing out in the Fred Winter, but that wasn’t his true running.
Paul Nicholls’ horses needed their first runs in October, so his third at Chepstow on seasonal reappearance is admirable.
He has race fitness on a few in here, so hopefully he goes well.
3:00 Newbury – Broadway Boy @ 7/1 with William Hill & Henry’s Friend @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW both
As voiced on the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast earlier this week, Broadway Boy and Henry’s Friend are my picks for the Coral Gold Cup.
Starting with the former, he ran a good race on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham when third to Senior Chief.
He gets a 10lb swing in the weights with Senior Chief and the slightly softer ground will help him to reverse that form.
He showed plenty of ability last year, notably when second to the subsequent Kerry National winner Flooring Porter at Cheltenham when giving 5lbs away.
Broadway Boy then bolted up at Prestbury Park in November 2023 before beating Threeunderthrufive, a subsequent Swinley Handicap Chase winner, and Protektorat, a subsequent Ryanair Chase winner, at Cheltenham in December.
After a few disappointing runs, his mark of 148 looks lenient as he’s only 2lbs higher than that last winning mark.
As for Henry’s Friend, there’s plenty to like.
The handicapper dropped him 3lbs after the National Hunt Chase (which is kind) and Ben Pauling got a pipe opener into him over hurdles earlier this month.
He showed a lot of potential when winning the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase last season with the first-time cheekpieces applied, and after a spin over hurdles, the headgear returns.
Apple Away let down his Reynoldstown form on Wednesday, but I rated Kilbeg King based on his Kauto Star form, and he gets weight from most of his rivals.
3:20 Newcastle – Bowtogreatness @ 13/2 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW
No prizes for guessing my bet in the Rehearsal Chase as Bowtogreatness will carry my money.
He got his career back on track at Newbury earlier this month when beating the impressive Chepstow winner Destroytheevidence, with the pair pulling 11 lengths clear of the third, Rock My Way.
The handicapper only gave him 4lbs for the effort which looks lenient in my book considering he finished third in the Coral Trophy off 133 and second to Midnight River in the 2023 William Hill Handicap Chase at the Aintree Grand National Festival off 132.
Good ground is expected at Newcastle this weekend, and while a few won’t appreciate this, Ben Pauling’s eight-year-old won on good last time out.
Furthermore, having spoken to Pauling at Newbury on Friday, he has minimal concerns about the conditions.
In his post-race interview after his last win, Pauling said: “It’s a shame he’s not in the Coral Gold Cup.”
Like me, he must think plenty of him, so hopefully, Bowtogreatness can make the 512-mile round trip worth it off his mark of 133.
3:35 Newbury – Petit Tonnerre @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win
It caught me off guard at the Cheltenham November Meeting to see how strongly Petit Tonnerre was backed for the Arkle Trial.
He was a double-figure price in the morning, but he came into an SP of 15/2 before running like a drain.
Still, the return to handicap company should work nicely with a lenient mark of 127.
He began the season off 125 and finished a staying-on second to Imperial Saint who reopposes here, though Petit Tonnerre gets a 12lb positive swing in the weights.
He finished second in the 2023 renewal of the Arkle Trial behind the 138-rated Homme Public who went on to win at Doncaster off 139 two starts later.
His known form over the last two years makes him well-handicapped and the slightly better conditions at Newbury on Saturday will suit.
12:40 Newbury: Le Milos deeper tactical context
Le Milos looks revived by the drop in the handicap and a positive gallop report from Dan Skelton increases confidence about his readiness.
Expect a strong early position and the chance to settle into a rhythm, which suits his closing style on fair ground.
How ground and distance affect Saturday runners
Good to soft versus good will be decisive for several in the Coral Gold Cup and the Supporting races, so weight for ground preference matters when finding value.
Horses who showed best on quicker tracks last season are likelier to regain form with the forecast drying trend.
14:25 Newbury: Liari race pace and improvement scope
Liari’s profile suggests he should improve for his reappearance and for a return to two miles if the early pace sets up a test of stamina late on.
Watch market moves for trainer Paul Nicholls’ pair as they usually indicate whether the horse is primed to take a step forward.
Trainer insights and recent gallops worth noting
Connections’ comments after schooling sessions and gallops can offer useful context about fitness but should be balanced with objective form lines.
Stable patterns — such as first-time headgear, recent schooling or a pipe-opener — are practical clues when assessing race readiness.
15:00 Newbury: Broadway Boy and Henry’s Friend updates
Broadway Boy benefits from a weight swing and proven Cheltenham form, making him attractive if the ground stays fair and he reproduces his best levels.
Henry’s Friend arrives with potential for improvement and the return to cheekpieces could sharpen him up for a bold showing.
Value betting, stakes and responsible play reminders
Consider lower stake each-way or lay-lite strategies for long odds picks and avoid risking disproportionate portions of your bankroll on one selection.
Betting should be for entertainment and those aged 18+ should play responsibly, using limits and self-exclusion if needed.
15:20 Newcastle: Bowtogreatness form and trip suitability
Bowtogreatness has shown he handles good ground and the step back into a similar trip looks well judged by the trainer.
He may not be the strongest stayer in the line-up, but in a race lacking depth he can exploit lenient handicapping.
Betting markets to monitor before the off
Keep an eye on early exchanges and bookie-priced exchanges for each-way depth and changes to place terms which can materially affect value.
In big-field handicaps, a late drift often tells you more about support levels than early moves, so stay patient until five minutes before the race.
Bankroll management and staking plans for the card
Divide your total racing budget into small, predefined stakes and avoid chasing losses; a consistent staking plan keeps wagering sustainable.
Use each-way across multiple bookmakers to compare place terms and protect value without increasing overall exposure.
Weather, going and last-minute checks to consider
Check the going report as late as possible and consider declared jockeys because a late rider change can shift a horse’s chance materially.
Also review non-runner lists for key scratches which might open up value or shorten prices for other runners.
Summary: constructive approach to Saturday betting
Use the race notes above to find value and back selections within a clear staking plan while remembering the inherent variability in horse racing.
Anyone aged 18+ should bet responsibly; you can explore bookmaker comparisons without pressure via our tools if you choose to bet.
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Frequently asked questions about this race day guide
Are these tips suitable for all UK bettors aged 18+?
Yes, the content is intended for UK readers aged 18 and over and is informational rather than a recommendation to stake money.
How should I decide stake size for each selection?
Use a fixed-percentage staking plan based on a pre-set bankroll and never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Do trainer comments guarantee a horse will run well?
No, trainer comments provide useful context but do not guarantee outcomes and should be used alongside form and market evidence.
What if the ground changes before racing?
Reassess each horse’s form on that ground and consider reducing stakes if conditions no longer suit your selections.
Are place terms essential for each-way bets?
Yes, place terms determine value; compare bookmakers for best place coverage before placing each-way bets.
How can I stay in control and gamble responsibly?
Set deposit, stake and time limits, take regular breaks, and use self-exclusion tools if betting feels problematic.
Where can I find bookmaker offers and compare free bets?
See our free bets comparison page for current bookmaker offers and terms, and only use promotions if you meet the provider’s eligibility criteria.
