Author: Ashley Symonds

Article number two of the Cheltenham Festival Ante-post Tips series is here and it comes alongside my fancies for day one at the Dublin Racing Festival.

We finished January with an eye-catching run thanks to successes with Gowel Road and Petit Tonnerre, but we still ran at a loss for the month. For the benefit of clarity, that was the first losing month in eight, which isn’t too bad.

Let’s hope February can provide some positive news to write about, so let’s dive in.

Cheltenham Festival Ante-post Tips

The Big Westerner @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

Week two of the Cheltenham Ante-post tips is sticking with the novice hurdles having put up Potters Charm for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle last week.

Look, a quick line on him, we’re on at the wrong price. I tried to make a play by getting him on side at 7/1 in the hope that he would be 4/1 by Saturday evening, but that didn’t go to plan.

We took a chance and that didn’t go to plan, unfortunately.

This play is on a horse who is going straight to the Cheltenham Festival as I fancy The Big Westerner to win the Albert Bartlett.

It looks like The Yellow Clay is heading straight to the race, and Final Demand is set to run in the Nathaniel Lacy this weekend. The way I see Final Demand is if he wins nicely on Saturday, he runs in the Turners. If he gets beaten, he could be a Bartlett horse, but even at that point, his reputation will take a small hit.

Bar Jet Blue (and whether he comes over), I’m not too concerned about her potential opponents, so The Big Westerner has to be the bet.

She was impressive in the Grade 2 at Limerick on Boxing Day despite the race not running to suit.

The early pace was slow for a contest run on yielding to soft, and she was situated three-wide most of the way around.

When the pace ramped up, she travelled very sweetly and never looked fazed, which was highly impressive.

The second, Mozzies Sister, and fourth, Fleur In The Park, finished second and third to The Yellow Clay on their previous starts, so the form of the race isn’t bad.

Being a half-sister to Stay Away Fay, the 2023 Albert Bartlett winner, is nice to have on her side as well, and I think she will be tough to give 7lbs away to on the day.

Dublin Racing Festival Selections

1:50 Leopardstown – Lady Vega Allen @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

I’m taking a chance that Lady Vega Allen will reverse the form with Hello Neighbour from Leopardstown on the weekend.

Very similar to last year, Willie Mullins is sending this four-year-old filly into her second start of the season having finished second in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on stable debut in December.

He did it last year with Kargese and she improved notably for the run, so there’s hope he can do the same with this four-year-old by Saint Des Saints.

Speaking of her first start on Boxing Day, she did well considering she was positioned out the back of the field before storming home to finish a close, close second.

Mullins was impressed by the run and he gave a nice word to her during his stable tour earlier this week. Yes, it’s dangerous to read too much into trainer comments sometimes, but he was remarkably upbeat.

Furthermore, she comes from a nice family as her dam, Sivega, is a full sister to Quevega.

4/1 seems fair, so she is my pick.

4:05 Leopardstown – Ha d’Or @ 20/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

There’s a case to make that if Ha d’Or returns to his best form, he could be well-handicapped in this field.

On his chase debut, he smashed up The Goffer (rated 136) over 2m5f before finishing a creditable second to Indiana Jones at Navan in March 2023. He had Flame Bearer behind him that day who went on to beat Sir Gerhard in a Grade 1 two starts later.

As a novice hurdler, he gave El Fabiolo a race at Punchestown and plenty of his form tied in with the previously mentioned Flame Bearer.

His recent form hasn’t shown too much, but he was sent off 11/10 to win a Punchestown handicap chase in April 2023 before falling at the ninth fence.

He was positioned prominently that day as well, so the fact he was held up towards the rear on his latest start at Fairyhouse suggests he needed the run after a 413-day break.

He’s a slightly windy play, but he’s a big price for a horse rated 139 with his promising form, and I hope he came on for the run 21 days ago.

4:05 Leopardstown – Fascile Mode @ 17/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

Although Ha d’Or was my early fancy in this race, I’m keen to keep Fascile Mode on side in this contest.

I’ve always liked this horse, ever since he beat Lecky Watson on debut at odds of 16/1. Although Lecky Watson is a bit of a stayer these days, beating him with the turn of foot that he showed is good form.

Although his proceeding races didn’t go to plan, notably when well-beaten by Farren Glory in the Royal Bond and Caldwell Potter in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle, he’s still held decent company over hurdles and fences.

In June 2024, he beat Ash Tree Meadow over hurdles when the runner-up was priced at 1/3 and Fascile Mode gave 13lbs away that day. Although Ash Tree Meadow is better over fences, he was race-fit and is rated 158 over the larger obstacles.

As for Fascile Mode over fences, he beat Touch Me Not on chase debut who went on to win a Grade 2 at Punchestown before finishing second to L’Eau Du Sud in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase.

Fascile Mode was a bit sketchy over his fences at Punchestown in December, so I want to play him win-only in case he jumps his chances away, but he looks well-treated off 135 in this company.

British Racing Tips

2:17 Musselburgh – Balhambar @ 6/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

The Scottish County Hurdle is a wide-open contest, but I think Balhambar could get his first win of the season.

He’s on a career-high mark now, but his last two runs came in hot handicaps full of unexposed horses.

The first to mention is his third at Cheltenham in November when behind Wreckless Eric. He travelled well and arguably hit the front too soon, but he battled well up the Cheltenham hill to finish third.

The winner went on to run an eye-catching race behind Mirabad, a County Hurdle chance, before finishing third in a good Windsor handicap.

He ran a good race at Southwell to finish second to Alnilam on New Year’s Day and he probably just gave the winner a bit too much rope in the end.

He can run well off 122 and trainer Harry Derham has a lifetime record of 3/7 at Musselburgh.

3:07 Sandown – Flight Deck @ 25/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

In 2023, I managed to back Mahon’s Glory (trumpet) when he won at Kempton in a handicap on Boxing Day because he ran in the Long Distance Hurdle as a prep.

He wasn’t going to win the Long Distance Hurdle, but he used it as a nice freshen up, and I’m hoping I’ve caught onto a similar scenario with Flight Deck for the Deborah Cole team.

Admittedly, this is probably a different situation as the Getaway gelding ran in the 2023 renewal when finishing a very good third behind Dashel Drasher and Paisley Park, so I’m sure connections wanted to go back for a second try in 2024.

However, that doesn’t mean that the outcome has to be different to Mahon’s Glory.

The 11-year-old did the donkey work at Newbury in November which was always going to be tough for a horse of his ability against the likes of Strong Leader and Monmiral.

While Strong Leader has let down the form since, Monmiral was good in the Cleeve Hurdle earlier this month to give the form some weight.

Flight Deck ran with plenty of credit that day for a horse who was 20lbs wrong at the weights with the winner, 8lbs wrong with the runner-up, and 24lbs wrong with the third (Langer Dan).

He maintained a Grade 2 pace for the majority of the contest and his jumping didn’t falter too much.

Back into handicap company will suit him a lot better, and his current rating gives him a good chance based on his previous form.

His last handicap win, admittedly, came in December 2022, but he won comfortably off 137 that day having won off 133 four starts previously. He also finished third to Hyland, now rated 147 over fences, in a Cheltenham handicap off 142.

He’s gone well fresh before, notably when behind Hyland (224-day break), so this little 64-day break ahead of Saturday looks promising and he’s a winner on soft and heavy before.

With the useful Ellis Collier taking 5lbs off, Flight Deck should go close at a big price.

ITV cameras turn to Windsor on Friday as day one of the Berkshire Winter Million Meeting kicks off.

This meeting is shaping up to be a big one. Yes, declarations for Windsor on Friday are slightly disappointing, but some top-class horses are running at the Winter Million Meeting, and we also have the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase at Ascot on Saturday to look forward to.

January has been a slow starter for the column so far, but we haven’t staked too much at the same time, so it’s a case of damage limitation currently.

I feel like this weekend could have a big say on how the P/L sits at the turn of the month.

Anyway, let’s find some bets.

Winter Million Meeting Day 1 Tips

1:15 Windsor – Deafening Silence @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

I’m slightly priced in to backing Deafening Silence in the second race at Windsor on Saturday as I’ve waited patiently for his handicap debut over fences.

3/1 is on the tight side, but there were plenty of positives to take from his run at Haydock on chase debut behind Trelawne and Iroko.

Harry Skelton positioned him off the pace under a restrained ride and he jumped well for much of the contest.

He stayed on to finish a comfortable third which was pleasing as it was his first run of the season and the front two were given plenty of rope to win the race.

His last run behind Jango Baie at Cheltenham was poor, but it was decent ground and he does prefer softer conditions.

Stepping up to three miles for the first time under rules is appreciated as he won his only point-to-point in December 2021 when beating Sine Nomine by seven lengths.

I’m fairly sure this horse is better than his mark of 133, and while Myretown and Johnnywho are respectable opponents, I hope things fall into place tomorrow.

1:50 Windsor – Caldwell Potter @ 6/5 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

Apologies for this shortie, but I think Caldwell Potter will win the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase, and I don’t think he’s badly priced.

Yes, he was disappointing at Cheltenham in December, but I thought the reaction was a bit over the top.

Asking if his new owners had kept their receipt for the €740,000 purchase was harsh because he did plenty of things well alongside his not-so-great moments.

His jumping was slick and accurate and he travelled powerfully from the front for a long way. Yes, he was swept aside after the last, but it’s easy to forget that his seasonal reappearance was 12 days prior and Springwell Bay has gone some way to frank the form already.

Jango Baie is a horse I love as well, so getting beaten by him is no major problem.

Returning to two miles will work, as will the expected soft ground, and I think he will win. If he loses and there is no major issue during the race, I will be disappointed.

3:00 Windsor – Nemean Lion @ 6/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

Nemean Lion is I’ve not really backed before, and I’ve always found a way to take him on, but he appeals the most in the 2m4f £100,000 conditions hurdle.

Firstly, conditions are set to suit. He likes softer ground and this trip should work for him.

Yes, he’s a serial winner over the minimum trip, but he easily brushed aside 2m3f at Hereford last time out in a race he could have won by 15 lengths.

Connections have seemingly wanted to run him over further for a little while now as he ran in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle last season, but that was probably a step too far, and he did run over 1m7f on the Flat for his previous trainer Andre Fabre.

His form of beating the two colonels, Colonel Mustard and Colonel Harry, over hurdles stacks up nicely, and doing the donkey work in the 2024 Champion Hurdle deserves respect.

He’s a tempting price to chance win-only.

4:08 Windsor – Hugos New Horse @ 8/1 with Boylesports (4 places) – 1pt EW

I think now is the time to strike with Hugos New Horse who is nicely handicapped based on previous form.

Paul Nicholls gave him a run over hurdles at Newbury on November 29^th to blow the cobwebs off, and he nearly won at Plumpton 18 days later on his first start over the larger obstacles.

He did well that day for a number of reasons. Diplomatic Ash (not named after me, I believe) was consistently jumping out to his right and into Hugos New Horse, eight fences of the 14 were omitted due to low sun which didn’t suit, and one can argue he will improve fitness-wise for the run again.

To go from massively needing the run on November 29^th to absolutely 100% fully fit on December 16^th doesn’t quite check out in my head, so with two runs and a nice 32-day break, he should have no excuses on Friday.

As for his form, he finished third to Crambo in the 2023 Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final at Sandown with Etalon, now rated 16lbs higher over fences, one place behind.

He also beat Persian Time (132) and Passing Well (123) on his final start of that season up at Ayr in a 2m4f novices’ hurdle.

I’m convinced this eight-year-old is well-in off 124 and I’m hopeful that this 2m6f trip will suit him nicely.

January started poorly for the column with a blank at Cheltenham on Wednesday, but I’m hoping for different success on Sandown Veterans Final Day on Saturday.

It’s a tough day for action in the UK tomorrow, but I’ve found a few bets that I’m hoping will go well.

Let’s dive in.

12:40 Sandown – Xcitations @ 4/1 with BoyleSports – 1pt Win

The market is dominated by two unexposed horses who are on career-high marks in the two-mile handicap chase, and while I respect them, I think Xcitations is a fine bet.

He’s down to a mark of 125 which is 9lbs below his last winning mark, and that success came over course and distance in November 2023.

He has also won off 133, 130, 128, and 120 before, so his mark of 125 makes him well-treated here.

During his last success, he beat Western Zephyr who has improved 8lbs since thanks to a win at Carlisle and a good run behind L’Eau Du Sud at Cheltenham.

Xcitations also ran a good race off 138 at Newbury in December 2023 when behind two subsequent Grade 1 winners, Elixir De Nutz and Master Chewy.

So, in a winnable race, I’m chancing Pam Sly’s 10-year-old.

1:15 Sandown – Fine Casting @ 6/1 with BoyleSports (3 places) – 1pt EW

I backed Fine Casting at Lingfield last month and he ran into a well-handicapped horse, so I’m hoping I can get paid on Saturday instead.

He travelled like the winner from a long way out last time out, and even though the handicapper has given him 2lbs for the effort, that still puts him 4lbs below his last winning mark.

Furthermore, he’s run well at Sandown before, notably when fourth off 129 in the 2023 Imperial Cup, and some of his chase form is progressively working out well.

On New Year’s Day last year, he finished a fine third to Libberty Hunter and Matata. The winner went on to bolt up off 144 at Cheltenham in December and the runner-up placed behind JPR One on his next start before winning a Cheltenham handicap off 150 four starts later.

I think he’s well-handicapped and the naturally softer conditions at Sandown will suit him nicely.

2:25 Sandown – Aston Martini @ 5/1 with BoyleSports  – 1pt Win

In what is a wide-open Listed contest, Aston Martini could be the answer for Nicky Henderson and Nico de Boinville.

In his At The Races stable tour at the start of the season, Henderson said: “We might try her over fences in time, but she has some unfinished business over hurdles before that and has a very bright future.”

Those are some nice words that could be true based on some of her form.

At Lingfield last year, she beat Ooh Betty and Only By Night which is a piece of form that’s worked out nicely,

The second, Ooh Betty, chased home Golden Ace at Cheltenham in April before winning two races in handicap company this season, and the third, Only By Night, bolted up in a Grade 2 mares’ novice chase at Cork last month.

Although she was beaten on her first two starts this season, they were both in handicap company against the boys, so a return to conditions company against her own gender looks like a positive.

She’s a nice price and I think she can hit the frame.

As 2024 ends, the year’s final column previews the first raceday of 2025; Cheltenham New Year’s Day.

As many of you will know, despite this being a free column for people to read, I keep a P/L for two reasons.

Firstly, it gives me a point of reference. In my spreadsheet, I can see we had a bad March and April, but June and October were months to remember.

I can also see that despite picking up 16.2pts of profit on Boxing Day, and despite finishing December in profit by 17.35pts, I managed to give back 6.8pts across the 27^th and 28^th of December.

Secondly, and very similarly to my first point, it gives you a point of reference.

I know P/Ls are usually saved for paid services, but you take up your time to hear what a guesser like me has to say, so it’s only fair that I keep a record of results.

Now, as we turn into 2025, we sit on a total profit of 59.8pts (March-December) at an ROI of 10.3%. I hope those numbers are nice for you all to see.

Going forward, I don’t know whether to reset the P/L or continue, so if any of you could let me know in the comments of my Twitter post or in my DMs, I would be greatly appreciative.

Happy New Year everyone, and let’s dive in.

1:30 Cheltenham – Bowtogreatness @ 15/2 with BetVictor (2 places) – 1pt EW

We’re starting 2025 with a horse who plagued me throughout 2024. That’s right, hello, Bowtogreatness.

I had no money on the day he won at Newbury off 129 two starts ago for two reasons. Firstly, I thought it was a quick turnaround (12 days) from his seasonal reappearance and secondly, I thought the good ground was against him.

He proved me wrong that day, but he ran like a drain on similarly good conditions at Newcastle in late November which makes me think he does have an affinity for softer ground.

Bowtogreatness holds off Destroytheevidence to bounce back to winning ways for @BenJone04644251 and @benpauling1! pic.twitter.com/mkNKkGNmq3

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) November 7, 2024

When looking through the form book, he won on heavy ground at Leicester, heavy ground at Ffos Las, and he finished a good third in the Coral Trophy off 132 on soft ground.

The form of that race looks fine as the second, Al Dancer, bolted up in the Badger Beer two starts later and the fifth, Sam Brown, won a veterans chase at Ascot before finishing third in the Charlie Hall Chase.

Off 132, I think he can win some nice races with this rating and I’m keen to see what he can do on a slower surface.

1:45 Musselburgh – Liari @ 13/8 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

Liari has taken a bit of money this season already, but I hope I can cash in on his return to Musselburgh.

He won the Scottish Triumph Hurdle last year around the course quite easily, and he also got the better of Knight Of Allen at Aintree who is now rated 123 having finished a good third in a valuable 2m3f Haydock handicap hurdle.

The track is set to be hit by rain on Wednesday morning as well, and that will help soften up the surface which is going to help his chance.

Ben Bromley is the pilot of choice with Harry Cobden on duty at Cheltenham, and with Bromley’s valuable 5lb claim, he runs here off an effective mark of 124.

I think that’s a really good mark for this horse, and I think Wednesday is the day he returns to the winners’ enclosure.

2:05 Cheltenham – Colonel Harry @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

I opposed Colonel Harry in the Coral Gold Cup due to ground reasons, but with imminent rain forecaste for Prestbury Park, I think he’s the answer to the feature 2m4f handicap chase.

If, and I hope my ‘calculations are correct’, we get soft ground by the time this race rolls around, I would have ground concerns for Springwell Bay, Gemirande, Midnight River, and Lisnamult Lad.

They can all go on the surface, but are they at their best? Unsure.

Colonel Harry, on the contrary, has won on soft and heavy to his name, and arguably his best piece of form comes when beating Trelawne in the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase on soft ground last season.

Trelawne has a rating of 152 now and the 20-length third, The King Of Ryhope, finished a close fourth in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase subsequently.

The handicapper kindly dropped him 2lbs for a poor Coral Gold Cup effort to a mark of 146, and on what is his second start in handicap company over fences, I’ll keep him in the book.

The Challow Novices Hurdle looks like one of the most interesting British races of the Christmas period, and the supporting card at Newbury is nice as well.

Although Boxing Day went well, yesterday was a bit of a lull, so hopefully today’s form can continue.

Let’s dive in.

 

12:05 Newbury – Sunset Marquesa @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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I’d be surprised if Sunset Maquesa isn’t better than her current mark of 114, so I’m happy to back her on handicap debut.

Her bumper form with Diva Luna (Grade 2 winner), Listentoyourheart (Listed winner), Baby Kate (winner of hot Naas maiden hurdle), and Rula Bula (9.5 lengths maiden hurdle winner) is nice for a horse rated in the mid-110s.

Joe Tizzard highlighted her as a horse to follow at the start of this season, so it was disappointing to see her beaten comfortably at Uttoxeter at the start of November.

She put that behind her to win at Wincanton by 11 lengths in an easy race, but still, it was nice to see.

The ground will work for her and I’m happy to keep her on side today.

 

1:12 Newbury – Ballybreeze @ 7/1 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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It’s been a while, but Ballybreeze is back on my betting list after a decent amount of time away from the game.

I backed him at Cheltenham in November 2023 and my pain was short-lived as Robbie Dunne was sent out of the side door at the first fence. Ouch.

He ran off 120 that day and I was very keen on him, so today’s mark of 114 naturally makes him a bit more interesting.

He had a year off the track after that Cheltenham appearance before he ran over hurdles at Leicester last month.

Hopefully, that was a prep run to get some fitness and confidence on his side for today, and this 0-125 contest is a much easier task than that 0-150 Cheltenham handicap he contested last year.

Considering he bolted up of 110 on chase debut at Chepstow in October 2022, I think he’s well-handicapped with a four-pound higher mark and any ground should suffice.

 

1:45 Newbury – Go To War @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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All of last season, Fergal O’Brien kept talking up Go To War as a nice horse, and his final two wins of the campaign backed up his thinking.

He won at Ludlow in December and then defied a three-month lay-off to beat Court In The Act at the same track in March.

The runner-up from that race looked really smart when bolting up at Market Rasen this season, so the form has been franked, and the pair pulled miles clear of the third despite their respective 7lb penalties.

Although he was half-expected to win at Taunton on his second start of last season and he failed to do so, the second, Matterhorn, improved 17lbs over fences by winning four races subsequently, and even the winner from that race (Ballee) is rated 135 now.

Since switching to Nicky Henderson, he’s had a pipe-opener earlier this month and is now stepping up in trip.

He’s thoroughly unexposed and has some nice form in the book, so I’ll chance him here.

 

2:00 Leopardstown – Hewick @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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It’s an interesting call from connections to send Hewick to this race, but I think they’ve made a pretty solid call.

That King George was a hot race, and although he would have had his chance, the Savills Hurdle looks a bit easier for him to contest.

Based on yesterday’s times, the Leopardstown ground is riding on the good side, and we know that Hewick is a fan of this surface.

He also has decent hurdles form having finished second in the French Champion Hurdle to Lossange Bleu in May, so this step back over the smaller obstacles is fine.

As for his other form, finishing second to Envoi Allen in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase is good and his third in the Punchestown Gold Cup to Fastorslow and Galopin Des Champs is also nice form.

With a few potentially needing the run, I’m happy to chance Hewick at the prices.

 

3:35 Newbury – Moon d’Orange @ 12/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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Having backed him at Cheltenham earlier this month, the return to 2m6f should suit Moon d’Orange.

He ran a really good race at Presbury Park two weeks ago as he jumped nicely from the front and travelled powerfully, however, the extended 3m1f was a touch too far.

If he matches that performance at Newbury today, he should go quite close, and Freddie Gordon is booked in the saddle to claim 5lbs.

With that claim and his rating of 128, he gets a nice 9lbs from Shanagh Bob, a horse who beat him by just four lengths on soft ground at Cheltenham last December.

That seems like a fair swing and John McConnel’s six-year-old is in good form.

Well, as Christmas presents go, yesterdays were nicely gift-wrapped ahead of Welsh Grand National Day.

The column found three winners at 9/2, 7/1, and 13/8 as well as place money on L’Homme Presse from the King George.

I’ll update the P/L another day – this is Christmas, after all – so let’s roll into today’s selections.

 

1:05 Chepstow – Le Milos @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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Whisper it quietly, but Le Milos has been on my cliff horses list since I started backing him in the Bet365 Gold Cup.

He ran a good race at Sandown that day, and in his two runs since this season, he’s done the same thing.

My in-running comments on him for both his Cheltenham and Newbury efforts would include the phrases ‘travelled strongly’ and ‘weakened late-on’, but the first comment is why I’m giving him another chance.

I expected this at Cheltenham on his seasonal reappearance, but Newbury surprised me, as did his tactics.

He led, which is a tactic he didn’t employ in his Coral Gold Cup win or his Grand National run, so I’m hoping that he returns to his off-the-pace style instead.

He’s well-handicapped based on his Coral Gold Cup success off 146, that goes without saying, and I hope this race is a winnable one for him.

 

1:10 Leopardstown – Found A Fifty @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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Well, I’ve flown the Found A Fifty flag for a number of weeks regarding the Grade 1 Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase, and today we get to see how wrong I’ve been.

Well, I hope I’m right, and there’s a fair case to suggest why Gordon Elliott’s seven-year-old can beat Gaelic Warrior.

Firstly, I think Gaelic Warrior is a machine. I backed him in the Arkle, and he would have been my King George fancy if he went. However, around a left-handed track over 2m1f, I’m happy to take him on.

Found A Fifty, on the other hand, runs well around Leopardstown and he’s shown good form already this season, notably when giving 14lbs away to Pinkerton on seasonal reappearance.

He was only just beaten by Il Etait Temps at the Dublin Racing Festival earlier this year, form that looks strong, and he won the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase before that.

I hope he can catch Gaelic Warrior today and win this contest.

 

2:10 Chepstow – Madaket @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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Seeing the purple and gold silks of the Louisville Syndicate gives me flashbacks to Zanza, which is not a thought I want to have too often.

I don’t think I’ve backed any other horse in these silks bar the aforementioned Denman Chase winner, so Madaket is making a bit of history today.

He’s still fairly unexposed with 10 runs under the belt and he won on handicap debut in October 2023 having bombed out in all three of his maiden/novice hurdle starts, which is always a promising sign.

That win came off 102, and the form of the race is looking tasty.

Immortal Flame, the second, has improved 12lbs since, Gaye Legacy, the third, has improved 13lbs since, and The Scorpion King, the fourth, has won three times since.

Admittedly, he won off 102 that day and he now has a rating of 120, but he showed promise at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance.

The soft ground at Chepstow will suit him and I think he can run well.

 

2:50 Chepstow – Iwilldoit @ 14/1 with Coral (5 places) – 1pt EW

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The Welsh Grand National is a tough race to find the winner usually, well I’ve never found the winner.

I’m taking a small chance, but I think Iwilldoit can replicate his 2021 success.

He goes well fresh as he won the 2021 Welsh Grand National Trial off a 226-day break and the 2023 Classic Chase off a 383-day break, so today’s 314-day break is not a worry.

His win in the Welsh National came off 140 and his Classic Chase success came off 147, so today’s rating of 147 alongside Callum Pritchard’s seven-pound claim gives him a good chance at the weights of winning here.

Conditions are in his favour and he’s a well-handicapped stayer. That’s enough filled criteria for me to back him.

 

3:00 Leopardstown – Desertmore House @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) – 1pt EW

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Finally, I’m having a stab at the Paddy Power Chase with Desertmore House, the 2023 Kerry National winner.

He won that off 135 when beating a good field by a decent margin, a field that included Salvador Ziggy, Authorized Art, The Goffer, Chemical Energy, Stumptown, Ain’t That A Shame, Life In The Park, Hurricane Georgie, and Foxy Jacks.

Since then, he’s not shown his best form, but there’s been glimmers of hope this season so far.

He finished a decent fourth in the Grade 3 BetVictor Chase two months ago behind French Dynamite, Minella Indo, and Hewick (a runner-up in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase on his next start).

Martin Brassil gave him a run over hurdles last month to prep him for this race without affecting his handicap mark, and that run was a fine one to finish third of 15.

This has hopefully been a plan and I hope he runs well.

Yes, King George Day is upon us. Boxing Day is a special 24 hours for horse racing fans with more action on our TVs than empty chocolate wrappers.

It’s a big day, and like most horse racing fans, I’m hoping to not give any away to the bookies. There are lots of races to digest, and that could cause danger.

Anyway, best of luck, and let’s begin.

 

11:55 Aintree – Lavida Adiva @ 9/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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Starting with the very first race at Aintree and just the fourth contest of the whole day, I’m sweet on the chances of Lavida Adiva.

The ground at Aintree is interesting as it’s good to soft currently but the surface should dry a little bit ahead of flag fall.

Either way, this five-year-old by Champs Elysees is ground versatile and she has some nice form in the book.

On her final start of last season, she chased home Pretending in a mares’ handicap hurdle at Cheltenham, form that looks solid as the winner won at Uttoxeter subsequently.

She qualified for that series final by finishing third at Market Rasen in the qualifier, and this race at Aintree is another qualifier, so if connections want to head back to the final in April, a good run here will secure that.

As for her novice form, she finished third to One More Strike and Yes Day at Catterick in January, the latter of which finished third in a Pertemps Qualifier to Cuthbert Dibble and Lord Snootie.

On her second hurdles start, she chased home The Kalooki Kid (rated 131 over fences) at Musselburgh and also finished ahead of the subsequent Listed hurdle runner-up Ottizzini.

With a generous rating of 113, I think Lavida Adiva can run a big race back against her own gender after two runs in hot handicaps against the boys.

 

12:45 Kempton – Leader In The Park @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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With a race under his belt, Leader In The Park can get back in the winners’ enclosure in Kempton’s opener.

I backed him at the Cheltenham in November on his seasonal reappearance and it looked pretty clear-cut to me – he needed the run.

He travelled nicely for 80% of the race, but in a race on good ground, he was just caught for speed around the home bend.

Still, the case for him remains. We had Ben Pauling on the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast a few months ago, and he said that this six-year-old point-to-point winner was his best novice hurdler last year without showing his true potential.

That’s a bold statement considering they had Tellherthename, a Supreme runner, Personal Ambition, and Handstands in their novice hurdle squad last season, but it’s one worth noting down.

On hurdles debut, he finished second to Paul Nicholls’ Farnoge and ahead of Excello who beat Solo over fences on his next start to frank the form.

Off 120 today, I think he’s fairly unexposed and he can run a big race.

 

1:05 Aintree – Potters Charm @ 13/8 with Coral – 2pt Win

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Followers of the column, Twitter, or TikTok will know my love for Potters Charm, and Boxing Day is his chance to claim his first Grade 1.

I have questions about the form of Country Mile’s win at Cheltenham earlier this month as the race rather fell into his grasp and similar doubts are placed on the heads of the bigger-priced runners.

Therefore, Potters Charm looks like the most solid option in the Formby.

Despite Valgrand’s slick jumping at Cheltenham last month, the five-year-old by Valirann kept on his hindquarters and picked him off around the bend with relative ease.

As for Potters Charm’s win in October, the second, Minella Sixo, won a novice hurdle at Thurles before finishing second in a Grade 3 Cork novice hurdle earlier this month.

He’s classy and I really think his opponents must improve to beat him, so I’m keeping him on side.

 

1:40 Aintree – Florida Dreams @ 5/2 with Coral – 1pt Win

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I backed Florida Dreams in the Greatwood Hurdle and he returned EW profit with some firms at 20/1, and the handicapper has nicely dropped him 1lb for the effort as well.

He travelled notably well down the hill before staying on well up the hill to edge out Fiercely Proud for fifth.

Speaking of Fiercely Proud, he boosted the Greatwood form by winning the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle last weekend.

The way he raced at Cheltenham last time out suggests this step up in trip could work nicely, and I’m fairly sure he’s a better horse than his rating of 126 suggests.

Yes, he’s slightly disappointed connections since his Grade 2 bumper win at Aintree in 2023, but the Blizzard Of Oz and Masaccio form is looking nice and finishing eighth in a hot renewal of the Scottish Champion Hurdle in April is also good form.

I’ll chance him here.

 

2:30 Kempton – Spillane’s Tower @ 10/3 with William Hill (1pt Win) & L’Homme Presse @ 11/1 with William Hill (0/5pt EW, 3 places)

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The King George is a competitive race this year which is great as, at one stage, it wasn’t looking too promising.

There are stronger bets across Boxing Day, though I’m still keeping Spillane’s Tower and L’Homme Presse on the team.

The former is a rightful favourite based on most of his form, and beating Monty’s Star on yielding ground at Punchestown is very relevant in the context of a good ground King George.

His runners-up effort in the John Durkan is also very good as finishing around the likes of Fact To File, Galopin Des Champs, and Fastorslow is some of the best form in the race.

He should go very close.

As for L’Homme Presse, I’m not sure how effective he is on a decent surface, but it’s hard to knock his attitude.

He’s a very honest horse and Venetia Williams’ horses have run well all season on their first starts of the campaign.

He has four good to soft victories to his name, so hopefully conditions will suit and I think he has a big run in him.

 

2:55 Leopardstown – San Salvador @ 8/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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Connections had a big chance to send San Salvador into a handicap chase at Cheltenham’s November Meeting, but they decided to send him into the Grade 2 Arkle Trial instead.

It was an interesting decision, but he still ran a good race when fourth behind the subsequent Grade 1 winner L’Eau Du Sud, so the performance is upgradeable.

He’s not tried any handicaps over fences yet, but as a hurdler, he put in a decent effort when winning a Punchestown handicap hurdle off 124 in December 2022.

He’s proven to be a much better chaser than hurdler as he has a Roscommon Grade 3 novice chase to his name.

The form of that race isn’t the strongest, but he beat Jordans in a Listowel novice chase in September who went on to beat Monbeg Park in a Punchestown Grade 3 novice chase.

Although this 2m1f handicap chase is a fairly wide-open contest, the favourite – One Last Tango – has losing distances of 23, 28, 22, 14.5, 19.5, 21, 21, 21, and 21 lengths to his name since his last success.

Furthermore, The Folkes Tiara and The King Of Prs are maybe not the best-handicapped horses in the world.

So, I think San Salvador can show his class in this field.

 

3:40 Kempton – Mahons Glory @ 9/1 with Bet365 (3 places) – 1pt EW

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Yes, I’m back on the Mahons Glory train after last year’s exploits in the 2023 renewal of this contest.

He won off 126 last year when bucking out from the front under Sam Twiston-Davies, and although his rating of 132 is 6lbs higher, Dylan Johnston claims a valuable 3lbs off his back to give him a competitive mark.

The form is working out nicely as well. Emailandy, the second, finished third in a valuable Sandown handicap and then won a Plumpton handicap off 129. Even the fourth, Mark Of Gold, won a Grade 2 novice chase last week.

Patrick Neville sent him over fences at the start of this season, and while his first effort behind Hyland was solid, the final two left a bit to be desired.

That Hyland form looks nice now as he went on to win twice at Cheltenham subsequently, the latter of which in a Listed race.

I must admit, this year’s renewal is hotter than 12 months ago, but he is nicely handicapped and will like the good ground.