Well, as Christmas presents go, yesterdays were nicely gift-wrapped ahead of Welsh Grand National Day.
The column found three winners at 9/2, 7/1, and 13/8 as well as place money on L’Homme Presse from the King George.
I’ll update the P/L another day – this is Christmas, after all – so let’s roll into today’s selections.
1:05 Chepstow – Le Milos @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win
Whisper it quietly, but Le Milos has been on my cliff horses list since I started backing him in the Bet365 Gold Cup.
He ran a good race at Sandown that day, and in his two runs since this season, he’s done the same thing.
My in-running comments on him for both his Cheltenham and Newbury efforts would include the phrases ‘travelled strongly’ and ‘weakened late-on’, but the first comment is why I’m giving him another chance.
I expected this at Cheltenham on his seasonal reappearance, but Newbury surprised me, as did his tactics.
He led, which is a tactic he didn’t employ in his Coral Gold Cup win or his Grand National run, so I’m hoping that he returns to his off-the-pace style instead.
He’s well-handicapped based on his Coral Gold Cup success off 146, that goes without saying, and I hope this race is a winnable one for him.
1:10 Leopardstown – Found A Fifty @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win
Well, I’ve flown the Found A Fifty flag for a number of weeks regarding the Grade 1 Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase, and today we get to see how wrong I’ve been.
Well, I hope I’m right, and there’s a fair case to suggest why Gordon Elliott’s seven-year-old can beat Gaelic Warrior.
Firstly, I think Gaelic Warrior is a machine. I backed him in the Arkle, and he would have been my King George fancy if he went. However, around a left-handed track over 2m1f, I’m happy to take him on.
Found A Fifty, on the other hand, runs well around Leopardstown and he’s shown good form already this season, notably when giving 14lbs away to Pinkerton on seasonal reappearance.
He was only just beaten by Il Etait Temps at the Dublin Racing Festival earlier this year, form that looks strong, and he won the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase before that.
I hope he can catch Gaelic Warrior today and win this contest.
2:10 Chepstow – Madaket @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win
Seeing the purple and gold silks of the Louisville Syndicate gives me flashbacks to Zanza, which is not a thought I want to have too often.
I don’t think I’ve backed any other horse in these silks bar the aforementioned Denman Chase winner, so Madaket is making a bit of history today.
He’s still fairly unexposed with 10 runs under the belt and he won on handicap debut in October 2023 having bombed out in all three of his maiden/novice hurdle starts, which is always a promising sign.
That win came off 102, and the form of the race is looking tasty.
Immortal Flame, the second, has improved 12lbs since, Gaye Legacy, the third, has improved 13lbs since, and The Scorpion King, the fourth, has won three times since.
Admittedly, he won off 102 that day and he now has a rating of 120, but he showed promise at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance.
The soft ground at Chepstow will suit him and I think he can run well.
2:50 Chepstow – Iwilldoit @ 14/1 with Coral (5 places) – 1pt EW
The Welsh Grand National is a tough race to find the winner usually, well I’ve never found the winner.
I’m taking a small chance, but I think Iwilldoit can replicate his 2021 success.
He goes well fresh as he won the 2021 Welsh Grand National Trial off a 226-day break and the 2023 Classic Chase off a 383-day break, so today’s 314-day break is not a worry.
His win in the Welsh National came off 140 and his Classic Chase success came off 147, so today’s rating of 147 alongside Callum Pritchard’s seven-pound claim gives him a good chance at the weights of winning here.
Conditions are in his favour and he’s a well-handicapped stayer. That’s enough filled criteria for me to back him.
3:00 Leopardstown – Desertmore House @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) – 1pt EW
Finally, I’m having a stab at the Paddy Power Chase with Desertmore House, the 2023 Kerry National winner.
He won that off 135 when beating a good field by a decent margin, a field that included Salvador Ziggy, Authorized Art, The Goffer, Chemical Energy, Stumptown, Ain’t That A Shame, Life In The Park, Hurricane Georgie, and Foxy Jacks.
Since then, he’s not shown his best form, but there’s been glimmers of hope this season so far.
He finished a decent fourth in the Grade 3 BetVictor Chase two months ago behind French Dynamite, Minella Indo, and Hewick (a runner-up in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase on his next start).
Martin Brassil gave him a run over hurdles last month to prep him for this race without affecting his handicap mark, and that run was a fine one to finish third of 15.
This has hopefully been a plan and I hope he runs well.
