This weekend is somewhat of a fantasy for racing fans across the globe as the Breeders’ Cup, Charlie Hall Chase, and Ladbrokes Champion Chase are set to occur within 24 hours.
City Of Troy, Bravemansgame, Gerri Colombe, Hewick, Lake Victoria, Fierceness, Notable Speech, Emily Upjohn, Luccia, Conflated, Bradsell, Rebel’s Romance, and more are set to run over the next few days.
What a time to be a racing fan.
Before we start, it’s worth sharing October’s stats for the column.
After a good weekend at Cheltenham last week, the column sat at +20.5pts for October at an ROI of 31% from 67pts staked. It was by far the best month, and the column (since March 2024) sits at +36.55pts with an ROI of 9%.
In this piece, I’ll share my bets for day one at the Breeders’ Cup.
12:55 Uttoxeter – Sunset Marquesa @ 2/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win
Starting at Uttoxeter of all places, Sunset Marquesa can kickstart her career over hurdles with a win today.
Having won a bumper at Aintree on debut, she ran in a decent Cheltenham mares’ bumper (fourth) before taking on the subsequent Grade 2 winner Diva Luna at Market Rasen in a Listed bumper.
She finished a fair third that day and then completed her season by staying on through the line at Sandown when behind Honky Tonk Highway.
What do all of her final three starts of last season have in common? Soft ground.
This Walk In The Park five-year-old is a half-sister to Drumlee Sunset and Land League, both of whom won (and preferred) good ground, and her dam, Be My Sunset, is a half-sister to the once 142-rated The Jigsaw Man who did his best work in the summer jumping sphere for Rebecca Curtis.
Funnily enough, his final start came in the Grade 1 A.P. Smith Memorial Chase on firm ground when finishing a respectable seventh.
She’s still growing, so a return to better ground should suit her nicely, and Joe Tizzard highlighted her as a novice hurdler to follow this year.
As for her form, the Market Rasen race has obviously worked out well, but the second (Listentoyourheart) finished fifth in the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at Aintree before bolting up by 10 lengths on her hurdles debut.
21:45 Del Mar – Aesterius @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win
I voiced my fandom for Aesterius on this week’s Only Fools Love Podcast as I think there’s plenty to like.
He’s a proper five-furlong sprinter and he showed plenty of speed to beat Big Mojo in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes.
What impressed me was his ability to run petty much on his own in the final two furlongs whilst simultaneously outbattling a stronger-travelling Big Mojo.
Like Whistlejacket, who is a danger if he can handle stall seven, he comes from the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes which is one of the two-year-old races that is working out well from Royal Ascot.
He’s got a nice draw in two, has good form on quick ground, and is ultimately quite sound.
He has plenty of upsides, so I’m keeping him onside.
23:05 Del Mar – Vixen @ 40/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 0.5pt EW
In what will probably be my only American-trained bet of the weekend, Vixen is a horse that caught my eye earlier this week.
The filly by Vekoma has had just the three runs, winning one, placing in a Grade 1 in another, and placing in her other race.
Her latest appearance came in that Grade 1 at Woodbine in September where she finished second in a 1-2-3 for Mark Casse.
She came quite wide around the pack and did well to gallop through the line considering both the winner and third had easier routes through the race.
Furthermore, the winner (And One More Time) is a well-bred filly as she is a half to the Grade 2 winner Honor D Lady and Listed-placed Churchtown.
She also had Mountain Breeze eight lengths behind her that day who was second to Lake Victoria in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes two starts ago and fourth to Fairy Godmother in the Group 3 Albany Strakes four starts ago.
My American form isn’t top-notch, but she seems a reasonable each-way play despite her negative draw in 13.
00:25 Del Mar – Al Qudra @ 11/2 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is one of the toughest contests of the evening, but Al Qudra ticks the most boxes and has the least to prove.
He is 2-1 up against New Century, and while the two-year-old by Kameko was a worthy winner of the Grade 1 Summer Stakes in September, Godolphin’s No Nay Never juvenile experienced interference with one furlong to go.
Before that, Al Qudra impressively beat New Century in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes having finished fifth in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes one start earlier.
Rashabar, the winner, has placed in two Group 1s since and Cool Hoof Luke won the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes two starts later to frank the form.
I’m half surprised that William Buick chose Aomori City before the draw was announced as in a Racing Post piece done in July, Charlie Appleby said: “Over the last few weeks, we’ve had horses working over the top of him [Aomori City], such as Al Qudra and a couple of maidens.”
Has Aomori City shown a marked improvement since? That’s something only a few connected to the horse will know, but you get the sense that Buick wanted to swap mounts once the draw came out.
Stall four for Al Qudra is beneficial, while stall 12 for Aomori City is the opposite.
For these reasons, Al Qudra has my vote.
