Best Of Bets

Tag: Breeders Cup 2023

  • Breeders Cup Day 2 History books await for Caravel

    Breeders Cup Day 2 History books await for Caravel

    It’s time for the highly-anticipated second night of the Breeders’ Cup after the fireworks of yesterday.

    The British and Irish charge proved to be deadly yesterday, though my three selections for tonight’s action come from three different continents.

     

    7:10 Santa Anita – Warm Heart @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Warm Heart has been my long-term fancy, alongside many others on Racing X, for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and with the race just a few minutes away, there’s no chance I can ditch her now.

    The challenge of Inspiral, who just shades favouritism, will be a difficult task, though both horses are running over a different distance to their usual trip.

    John & Thady Gosden’s four-year-old tackles 10 furlongs for the first time in her career and a quick scan at her pedigree shows that Celestran, a Dansili half-brother to Inspiral, won over 10 furlongs and even tackled 12 furlongs during his career, so she might be okay with the step up in trip.

    As for Warm Heart, she has a 100% record at 10 furlongs including a victory in the Listed Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes at Newbury earlier this year, suggesting the step down in distance is nothing to worry about.

    Furthermore, master trainer Aidan O’Brien won the race last year with Tuesday, a similar-type horse who had her best form over 12 furlongs before her Breeders’ Cup victory.

    On form, her victories over Sea Silk Road, a future Group 1 Prix de Royallieu winner, Lumiere Rock, a future Group 1 Prix de l’Opera third, and Bluestocking, a subsequent Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes runner-up, all read nicely.

    Although State Occasion did initially pique my interest – and at 40/1, I wouldn’t put you off backing her – due to her progressive profile, Warm Heart is now hampered by the penalty of having my money onboard as she is my main hope.

     

    8:30 Santa Anita – Songline @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    The Breeder’s Cup Mile doesn’t look like a race brimming with class, so the one who could be too good is Songline representing Japan.

    The three-time Grade 1 winner is a proven quick ground horse and comes into tonight’s £1.5 million contest with the benefit of a nice break between the start of June and the start of October.

    Toru Hayashi’s five-year-old got back into the swing of things in the Grade 2 Mainichi Okan in early October over nine furlongs, a race that saw her positioned on the outside for the majority of the contest before her interrupted charge towards the line.

    Once a gap opened up, she stormed on but couldn’t get past Elton Barows who had a facile route on the nearside rail.

    Although she has stall 10 today, she showed good gate speed during her victory from a wide draw in the Group 1 Yasuda Kinen and if she does the same today, Songline could negate her outside draw.

     

    11:25 Santa Anita – Caravel @ 6/1 with William Hill – 2pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Two horses, Mizdirection and Stormy Liberal, have won back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprints since 2012 and Caravel is looking to do the same this year.

    The six-year-old sprung a surprise in last year’s renewal to beat Emaraaty Ana, Creative Force, and Highfield Princess at odds of 43/1; that form is very hot and she had a tough stall in 10 to navigate that day.

    Since then, the Mizzen Mast mare won three in a row until her defeat in the Grade 3 Troy Stakes on soft ground in August and afterwards, connections gave her a break until a good second in the Grade 2 Franklin Stakes 20 days ago.

    That run should have the Brad Cox-trained contender spot on for today’s target and from stall three, she could leave this field in her dust.

  • Four To Follow: Don’t Play The Game + Breeders’ Cup Tip

    Four To Follow: Don’t Play The Game + Breeders’ Cup Tip

    It’s action from the North, the South and across the Atlantic this weekend as the Breeders’ Cup takes place in Santa Anita. A little further North, back home, it’s Charlie Hall Day at Wetherby with Bravemansgame making his reappearance alongside Ahoy Senor. Ascot also has a good handicap card to get stuck into too. A intriguing weekend for Four To Follow.

     

    Wetherby

    The Girls are alright with me

    Embed from Getty Images

    1:50 – Mares’ Hurdle (Listed) – Kateira @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    Kateira is still new to hurdles but is no longer a novice and comes into a tricky race, after finishing runner-up in a Grade One last April. But she loves to race fresh, with figures after a 50+ break reading 5112. She’s constantly on the upgrade and will love the soft ground up at Wetherby. Expect more progression from this horse throughout the season.

    Stainsby Girl represents the value in the race for me. An established front-runner, it’s her first foray into level weights. And she comes in with one of the highest marks in the field at 138, she’s not one to be dismissed. She’s a mud-lover and could be hard to peg back if she’s given some racing room in front. 7/1 (General) is a nice price.

     

    Drashing through the mud

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:25 – West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade Two) – Dashel Drasher @ 9/4 (Betfred)

    Another tricky contest, but I’m surprised the 10-year-old isn’t favourite for the race. He has a consistent reappearance record, never finishing outside the top three, and loves soft ground. Thyme Hill is the one to oppose and comes back to hurdling after a season over fences didn’t work out.

    Dashel Drasher was ultra consistent last season, with four seconds, including narrowly losing to Sire Du Berlais in the stayers. I expect him to be favourite at the off.

     

    Ascot

    Mucho macho man

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:45 – Sodexo Gold Cup (Premier H’cap) – Mucho Mas @ 6/1 (General)

    Mucho Mas a progressive chaser for Ben Pauling having competed at the levels below Premier chases last season. But he was entered for the Sandown Gold Cup but was scratched due to the ground. This may be a big ask, but the ground is a big plus for him. A four-pound rise looks lenient given the missed end of season targets and can run a big race. He’s certain to feature in similar events throughout the season, nonetheless.

    A former winner of the race also puts forward an intriguing case. Larry won the 2021 edition off a mark of 132. This year it’s only 135 on soft ground. He also loves Ascot at this time of year with two wins over C&D in the last two years. Ground won’t be a problem, and can break the Moore’s poor run of form at 11/1 (General).

     

    Breeders’ Cup

    Rodin’ the wave

    Embed from Getty Images

    Santa Anita 9:50 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade One) – Auguste Rodin @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    It’s the race that he has been preparing for all season. His avoidance of a tilt at the Arc and the Champion Stakes made sure that this would be his destination. Auguste Rodin is ready to be the star of Tinseltown. It was a gutsy, yet impressive, win in the Irish Champion which puts him at the head of the market.

    King Of Steel was the big impresser at Ascot, but just how much did that race take out of him for him to be running two weeks later?

    Mostahdaf has the US media talking on his final start, but his best form comes over 10 furlongs. Can making it a fairytale end to his career?

    I think the dual Derby and Irish Champion has the race to lose, and add to Ballydoyle’s excellent Breeders’ Cup success.

    War Like Goddess is a peach of a price at 14/1 (William Hill), after finishing third in the contest last year. She won a Grade One at Belmont in some style to prep herself for her tilt to go two better this year.

     

    The very best of luck!

  • Breeders Cup | Carla’s Way on the highway

    Breeders Cup | Carla’s Way on the highway

    With weather-related abandonments sweeping across the UK and Ireland this weekend, the one meeting we can rely on is the glorious Breeders’ Cup.

    Hosted at Santa Anita, with a scenic view in the backdrop, the next two days of American action should entice all fans of racing whether you prefer the jumps or the Flat.

    Three juvenile Grade 1 races take place on the Santa Anita turf course this evening and I have three fancies to bring you down below, though one occurs in a Listed contest earlier in the card.

     

    7:40 Santa Anita – Elm Drive @ 5/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Although this isn’t a Grade 1, the Listed Senator Ken Maddy Stakes at 7:40 over six-and-a-half furlongs has caught my attention as Elm Drive is the one I’m with.

    White Moonlight represents Saeed bin Suroor at the head of the market, a horse I backed in defeat at Goodwood last time out, and today’s trip is her first career try at the distance.

    Despite her form when beating Heredia at Musselburgh in June, I’m happy to let her win at 11/4 on her first start for 93 days.

    Because of this, Elm Drive looks like a worthy second-favourite to take her on with as Philip D’Amato’s four-year-old by Mohaymen has good course and distance form from her decisive victory over Honey Pants in May 2023.

    Following that run on the turf, she switched to the dirt for her next three outings, two of which proved to be valiant performances in defeat when third in the Grade 2 Great Lady M Stakes in July and third in the Grade 1 Clement L Hirsch Stakes in August.

    The latter of which occurred over eight-and-a-half furlongs, a trip that looked to be slightly too far as she faded in the final few furlongs; the winner, Adare Manor, bolted up by five-and-a-quarter lengths on her next start to frank the form.

    At 5/1, it’s a classic scummy each-way play, but that’s how I’ll play the race.

     

    9:00 Santa Anita – Crimson Advocate @ 4/1 with Boylesports – 1pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    George Weaver came to Royal Ascot this year and walked away with the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes in his clutches thanks to Crimson Advocate, and he’ll be hoping to build on that success in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

    Now sporting the colours of Wathnan Racing, the Nyquist filly hasn’t been seen since that success here in the UK, so one might hold a small amount of worry coming into today off a 135-day break, though surely connections will have her spot on for a race as prestigious and valuable as this.

    At first glance, the Juvenile Turf Sprint looks to have plenty of pace as Big Evs, No Nay Mets, Cherry Blossom, and Slider all have the ability to race prominently.

    Crimson Advocate also made all on her second start of the season at Gulfstream in May and led the field from the one-furlong pole to the line at Ascot, so she could do something similar from stall one if breaking well.

    That being said, if she breaks slower than some of her competitors, there will be a strong pace ahead of her to aim at and with her experience over five furlongs on quick ground around a bend, she could make a late charge to the wire under John Velazquez.

    As much as I would love to see Big Evs land the spoils for Mick Appleby and Tom Marquand, Crimson Advocate looks like a strong contender and with 4/1 available, that looks like a good price.

     

    10:20 Santa Anita – Carla’s Way @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    As explained yesterday on X, I’m a big fan of Carla’s Way for Simon & Ed Crisford and hopefully, today can be her time to land a Grade 1 contest.

    The Starspangledbanner filly picked up her second victory of the season in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket in late September, a race that has worked out well in the form books as Ylang Ylang and Shuwari filled out the first two places in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile on their next start.

    Visually, the manner of her success over seven furlongs at HQ impressed me the most as she sat prominently throughout alongside the early pacesetter Spiritual, clocking furlongs of 11.26, 11.04, and 11.06 between the one-furlong and four-furlong poles.

    As Spiritual began to fade back – partly due to her ability and the early pace – James Doyle’s mount continued to press on, leaving Shuwari and Ylang Ylang with work to do.

    Inevitably, they didn’t catch Carla’s Way who needed little encouragement to win by two-and-a-quarter lengths.

    As stated in a piece for The Irish Field (shameless plug) and in the tweet above, her pedigree – Starspangledbanner out of Sulaalaat – does worry me for her staying a mile, though a fast-paced American race should be a nice introduction to eight furlongs ahead of next season.

    All in all, she looks like the best horse on paper and if she can navigate the task of stall nine, hopefully she will have a Grade 1 success next to her name by the end of today.

  • Breeders’ Cup | Frankie 66/1 punt tops Santa Anita triple

    Breeders’ Cup | Frankie 66/1 punt tops Santa Anita triple

    As glamour dates on the racing calendar go, it doesn’t get much bigger for thoroughbred horses than the Breeders’ Cup and the 2023 edition takes place this weekend in the shadows of Los Angeles at Santa Anita.

    With the best field from around the globe descending on the Golden State, the chance for the rest of the world to take on the North American set on their own patch remains hugely inviting.

    No less than 18 races take place over the two-day event across Friday and Saturday, with 14 Grade 1 contests on the slate on both Dirt and Turf.

    The best horses, jockeys and trainers are in town, with the likes of Auguste Rodin, Mawj and Elite Power on show, but the Breeders’ Cup is also a chance for stars to emerge.

    With that in mind, here at BestofBets we’ve studied the form, going, track and playbook from Santa Anita and picked out THREE big price e/w punts.

    Embed from Getty Images

    *All race times GMT/PT

    Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf (Friday, 22:20/3:30PM)

    Giv’ Frankie a punt – 66/1 BoyleSports

    First up, we turn to the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf over 1m on Friday and look to an old favourite.

    Frankie Dettori may have ridden his final race on European turf, but a first Breeders Cup at Santa Anita in four years presents further chances for a gold-tinged twilight of his career.

    With a total of nines rides across the weekend in Arcadia, by far, the veteran’s longest price hope is on Leonard Powell’s rank outsider, Mo Fox Givin.

    But despite his huge antepost, punters should give this youngster a shot.

    Over the mile, the 2yo won on debut at Colonial Downs in Virginia, and though runner-up last out at Churchill Downs, that contest was over this trip, pointing to a preference for a longer trip.

    Embed from Getty Images

    With the ground suitably firm, the quicker turf will suit the sprinters and in Mo Fox Givin, not only is there a quick filly, but one who will push late on.

    Dettori has not ridden a Breeders’ Cup winner since 2018 on Enable, and never won this race before.

    However, after Ryan Moore’s heroics on Meditate last year, could Frankie pull one out of the bag here in his new adopted home?

    This race is also worthy of backing two other names in the field, Buttercream Babe and Danny Eplin’s unbeaten Dreamfyre.

    The two finished 1-2 in the Surfer Girl Stakes on the same course last time out, with the latter a winner by a neck.

    Though this is plainly a more elite field, both are in excellent form and both fetching long odds of 20s+.

     

    FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (Friday 23:00/4:00PM)

    A nice tipple – 18/1 William Hill

    We go with back-to-back races for number two, and to a colt who can put on a show for Bob Baffert in the Juvenile Alliance.

    Wine Me Up, like many this weekend, comes to Cali with little experience, but after winning on debut two months ago, made the trip to Santa Anita last time out, finishing a 9/1 runner-up behind Muth – a 7/2 shot here.

    Embed from Getty Images

    On the dirt, Wine Me Up, the son of Vino Rosso – a Breeders’ Cup Classic victor in 2019 – has the pedigree to make a statement with Ramon Vazquez on board.

    In the American Pharoah Stakes, the colt was beaten by almost 4L and will need to really turn it on, but could leave the Pegram, Watson and Weitman ownership team with the bubbly flowing come Friday.

     

    FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile (Saturday, 20:30/1:30PM)

    In Exaultation – 25/1 Betfred

    As Saturday rolls into view, our final big punt of the weekend goes on the Turf Mile, and to a horse who, frankly, we are stunned to see so far down the markets.

    Yes, Mawj is expected to bring a third win on the bounce for Godolphin, but Exaulted could spring a surprise.

    Exaulted comes into the contest from a Del Mar runners-up spot at the beginning of September, but before that, had won four on the spin.

    All four came at Santa Anita, for a horse who remains unbeaten on turf.

    Having made the step-up in trip from 7f without success, Peter Eurton’s progressive 6yo Bay has proved a liking for not only the trip but is very much at home in Arcadia.

    Indeed, with the ground firm and fast this weekend, the bay is yet to taste defeat Santa Anita, most recently winning the Shoemaker Stakes back in May – a first Grade 1 win.

    That win was further evidence of a growing reputation, and though by far and away a toughest field to date, punters could do a lot worse than with an e/w flutter.

     

    The 2023 Breeders’ Cup begins on Friday at Santa Anita Park, with the Qatar Golden Mile Stakes at 18:30/11:30AM.