The final day of the Cheltenham November Meeting is here, and many will have one thing on their minds. Dysart Enos in the Greatwood.
Yesterday’s column found the 1-3 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup as Il Ridoto won under a cool Freddie Gingell ride.
With hopes of continuing the form, here are my fancies.
1:45 Cheltenham – Leader In The Park @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win
I’m taking a small chance that Leader In The Park is ready fitness-wise for today because he looks well-handicapped on his handicap and chase debut.
Backing horses first-time-out this season is something I’ve tried to avoid when possible, so that is a note of caution against siding with him today, but he could well have too much in hand today.
Also, on the point of fitness, the horse was ready to go when declared for his chase debut at Ascot two weeks ago before connections made him a non-runner due to the ground, so I hope the extra two weeks of work have brought him along nicely.
Starting with the ground, he’s a winner on soft, but the course had 3mm of rainfall last night to add to the 3-5mm of watering (interesting call), so he should handle conditions.
There’s also plenty of good ground form throughout his pedigree to help.
We had Ben Pauling on the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast a few weeks ago, and he said that this six-year-old point-to-point winner was his best novice hurdler last year without showing his true potential.
That’s a bold statement considering they had Tellherthename, a Supreme runner, and Personal Ambition in their novice hurdle squad last season, but it’s one worth noting down.
On hurdles debut, he finished second to Paul Nicholls’ Farnoge and ahead of Excello who beat Solo over fences on his next start to frank the form.
Off 121 today, he gets an eight-pound swing in the weights with the favourite, Peaky Boy, based on his Cheltenham run in April, and having sorted out an issue with his ribs, hopefully he can improve today.
2:20 Cheltenham – Matata @ 13/8 @ William Hill – 2pt Win
This weekend’s previous two 2pt wins have both lost, so proceed with caution, but I like Matata in the two-mile handicap chase.
Calico beat him at Cheltenham last meeting, but Dan Skelton’s eight-year-old went well fresh and Matata was taken on from the front by Dancing On My Own.
One can imagine that he’ll get an easy lead today due to the small field, and hopefully with a run under his belt, his typical freshness will settle down better today.
There’s a one-pound swing in the weights towards Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old, and while that won’t make much difference, it will help.
His form with Libberty Hunter, JPR One, Master Chewy, Strong Leader, Luccia, and Inthepocket is the best in here, so I hope he reverses the places today.
2:55 Cheltenham – Does He Know @ 5/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW
Does He Know looks like a sound each-way bet in the 3m3f handicap chase, a race he won two years ago.
He won off 152 that day when beating a subsequent winner Eva’s Oskar, so today’s rating of 150 makes him well-treated on that effort.
The handicapper dropped him two pounds for his first run of the season last month, but the performance was better on the eye than the 15-and-a-half-length defeat would suggest.
He attempted to make all against some nice horses that day. The winner, Senior Chief, could be a Grand National horse this year and the third, Broadway Boy, is on the Coral Gold Cup shortlist.
He’s a dower stayer, as shown by his win in this two years ago and his Grimthorpe Handicap Chase success in March, and with a run under his belt, he should go well here.
3:30 Cheltenham – Under Control @ 10/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW
I think there’s a well-handicapped mare in this field, though I’m not talking about Dysart Enos.
Last year, I thought Under Control was a certainty off 137 in the Gerry Feilden but she finished 179 lengths behind the winner. Shrood.
However, she wasn’t right that day at Newbury and she improved to finish second in the Grade 2 Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle in January when splitting Ashroe Diamond and Gala Marceau.
The former was a Grade 1 winner who had Marine Nationale and Irish Point form and the latter finished the season by chasing home Lossiemouth in the Grade 1 Mares Champion Hurdle.
On her final start of the 2022-23 season, she beat Iberico Lord off level weights in the novices’ championship final at Sandown.
The form of this race is red hot as the second won the Greatwood and Betfair Hurdle last year, the fourth, General Medrano, improved 11lbs over fences and the sixth, Tapley, has improved 12lbs since.
She loves a nice surface rather than soft winter ground, so hopefully she goes well here.
3:30 Cheltenham – Florida Dreams @ 25/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 0.5pt EW
However, at a bigger price to Under Control, Florida Dreams can outrun his odds here.
Having won a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree on his final start of the 2022-23 season, last year didn’t go to plan as he won just once over hurdles.
The bumper form of that win is worth noting though as Esprit Du Potier, rated 128 over hurdles, finished sixth, Masaccio, rated 137 over fences, finished seventh, Go To War, rated 123 over hurdles, finished eighth, and Samui, rated 104 on the Flat, finished ninth.
The promising Blizzard Of Oz, Hasthing, and Bowenspark were further up the field, and while they haven’t shown too much yet, they could improve notably this season.
On his final start of last season, he finished a fair eighth when two pounds out of the handicap in the Scottish Champion Hurdle.
Rubaud and L’Eau du Sud have franked the form of the race already.
After a success on seasonal reappearance last time out, connections have applied the first-time cheekpieces to help sharpen him up.
He needs to improve, but there’s enough form in the book to suggest he can off 127 with a run under his belt.
