Tag: cheltenham november meeting

  • Four To Follow – Cheltenham November Meeting: Day Three Tips

    Four To Follow – Cheltenham November Meeting: Day Three Tips

    It’s the first big festival of the jumps season, as we go back to Cheltenham for the November meeting. Day Three looks to be competitive once more with the Greatwood Hurdle taking centre stage. Plus we have a big staying handicap chase that could give some clues for the marathon races this year. One last time, let’s dive into Day Three

     

    Prim And Proper

    1:45 – mallardjewllers.com Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase – Primoz @ 7/2 (General)

    Primoz was a good winner in a handicap hurdle up at Ayr at the end of last season but improved massively when starting over the fences for the first time at Wetherby. He beat experienced opposition Pay The Piper by two lengths and travelled up with the pace. The step up in trip looks natural and if there’s a strong pace on, he’ll be dangerous.

     

    …He’s Running At Cheltenham?

    2:55 – Holland Cooper Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Does He Know @ 5/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    An experienced chaser at the marathon trip, Does He Know produced as good a run as he could muster when returning from a wind op. Despite leading he faded but finished a good fourth from two good horses. He won this race back in 2022 off a mark of 152 and is two pounds lower than that today, which makes him look an attractive proposition.

    Surrey Quest also warrants close consideration, with a good reappearance record. The numbers read 173112, losing by a neck after a break in the Scottish Grand National. He shouldn’t mind the good ground, and the best time is to catch him now, fresh. Only up four pounds from his neck defeat last time, he can sneak into the places at 17/2 (William Hill).

     

    What Have You Done To Make You Feel Proud?

    3:30 – Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – Fiercely Proud @ 16/1 (William Hill)

    Despite a less-than-ideal prep, when falling at Ascot and running loose at the October meeting, I still have high hopes for Fiercely Proud. He’s been campaigned with this particular early season aim and matches a lot of the trends that previous horses have had. He’s a second season hurdler who has won at Cheltenham previously and races off a good weight. The big price takes into consideration his prep runs, but I still have faith that he’ll turn up good.

    Anyharminasking returned to Cheltenham with a good performance behind Wyenot at the October meeting to finish third. He was down the field in last year’s running of the race but is now two pounds lower than that mark today. He has a liking for good ground and can improve for his earlier run, despite being a seven-year-old. 25/1 (General).

    Cracking Rhapsody looks a shrewd long-shot bet, taking into consideration his 1L third in the Scottish Champion Hurdle back in April. He blew the cobwebs away at Hexham last time out to finish a not too distant fourth at Hexham in a handicap hurdle. He’s most likely to be seen up North, but connections think he’s good enough to compete on the biggest stage. 25/1 (William Hill).

     

    Favouring Fortune

    4:00 – Junior Jumpers Open NH Flat Race (Listed) – Fortune De Mer @ 4/1 (General)

    Despite losing to a resurging Block Rockin Beats, I was still taken with Fortune De Mer on his first performance under rules. He took the odd decision of being held up in the rear, on day that favoured front runners, but weaved his way through the melee. Eventually he went six lengths clear of the rest of his rivals up the hill. He does come up against a tough Irish challenger, but this is a narrow field and can showcase his talent once more.

  • Four To Follow – Cheltenham November Meeting: Day Two Tips

    Four To Follow – Cheltenham November Meeting: Day Two Tips

    It’s the first big festival of the jumps season, as we go back to Cheltenham for the November meeting. Day Two features the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

     

    London Waters

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    12:35 – JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Grade Two) – East India Dock @ 9/4 (General)

    Normally I wouldn’t tip juveniles, but East India Dock represents something. For one, he represents the connections from last year’s Cheltenham November win. For two, he won on good ground by a considerable distance. In the three weeks that have past he may have improved, so don’t take so lightly on him. Plus, his trainer is operating at a 23% strike rate. Consistent form for an in-form stable.

    Also, take a chance om Static, each-way. His form reads well, especially finishing within a neck of Liam Swagger at Wetherby. He clearly has a liking for these conditions and can act on them for an in-form trainer in Olly Murphy. 6/1 (General).

     

    A Technical Problem

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    1:10 – Steel Plate & Sections Ltd Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase – Transmission @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Transmission makes a lot of sense. One is the fact that he’s arguably been treated by the handicapper to become second weight. The second is that Hyland won in some style at yesterday’s fixture. With form like that, and a top jockey on board (conditional or not), he’s a force to be reckoned with.

    Each-way placings belong to Jimmy The Digger, who finished second last time out at the October meeting. He showed a lot of promise that day and will improve for a lot from his runner-up finish. 10/1 (William Hill).

     

    The L’Eau Cheltenham Sun

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    1:45 – Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – L’Eau Du Sud @ 10/11 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    After Sir Alex Ferguson and Ged Mason achieved a double victory in Bahrain with Spirit Dancer, they’re most likely complete a double with L’Eau Du Sud. After running out a 10L at Stratford, he looked like winning potential at Graded level. This looks like easy pickings for a horse that soon compete in Grade One Chases in the near future.

     

    Destiny Calls

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    2:20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup (Premier H’cap) – Ginny’s Destiny @ 11/4 (General)

    Ginny’s Destiny has been the bet of the meeting, since entries were made public. He follows the same page as Stage Star, no prep run and off a mark of 155. Despite racing off a true mark, he represents a great chance for trainer who has won this race twice with Stage Star, Al Ferof and the lesser Caid Du Berlais. Ginny’s Destiny has every quality that Stage Star possesses.

    Another that should be taken note of is In Excelsis Deo for the Harry Fry stable. The trainer has already put a line through his Galway run and should be taken on his run back in April in a limited handicap chase over course and distance by nearly five lengths. With nearly the same conditions, he can certainly operate as an each-way angle at 12/1 (William Hill).

  • Four To Follow – Cheltenham November Meeting: Day One Tips

    Four To Follow – Cheltenham November Meeting: Day One Tips

    It’s the first big festival of the jumps season, as we go back to Cheltenham for the November meeting. Day One looks to be competitive with a novice chase and a novice hurdle with plenty of talent. Plus, we’ve action over the cross-country track too. Let’s dive in on Day One

     

    Nothing Much…

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    1:10 – Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys H’cap Hurdle – Whatsupwithyou @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    The first contest at Cheltenham looks a humdinger of a handicap, with plenty of emerging talent both equine and human. With a dry Autumn, good ground horses are still the ones to side with and Whatsupwithyou has been consistent on his last four runs, including on good ground. He reappeared at Fontwell and was denied half a length in the finish but remains on the same mark today. Conditional Callum Pritchard takes off 10 pounds which sees him tumble down the handicap. Pritchard also has a decent strike rate with three wins and four placings in his last 11 rides.

    A horse making his seasonal reappearance in this contest is Il Va De Soi. Despite most of his victories coming on soft ground, he has the make-up of an improving six-year-old. He dominated on his final appearance at Uttoxeter scoring by five lengths. A change of jockey to Alice Stevens has also shown improvement, with the conditional winning twice and placing once on three rides on this mount. A definite player at 14/1 (William Hill).

    An ultra-consistent horse in the race is Stay If U Want To for the O’Neill stable. Despite being no match for the winner on reappearance at Wincanton he has still never found outside the top two in all hurdle starts. He’s already low in the handicap off rating but is further improved with a relatively new name in Benjamin Macey. Could find the frame once more at 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Buddy, This One’s For You

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    1:45 – Mucking Brilliant Novices’ Chase (Listed) – Buddy One @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Running off peak hurdle form after finishing fourth in both Cheltenham and Punchestown Stayers’ Hurdles, Buddy One wasn’t at his best last time out in a three-runner chase at Wexford. However, I’m willing to forgive that run and base it off his debut win at Galway when if he jumped well and went clear up the homestraight. Given his course form over hurdles and likes good ground, he looks a more qualified candidate than the top two British hopes

     

    Cross The Cheltenham Countryside

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    2:55 – Glenfarclas Cross Country H’cap Chase– Tommie Beau @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    With the Festival Cross Country Chase now turned back to a handicap, this could offer some valuable clues for that prestigious contest in around five months. But looking at the competition now, I’m going against Delta Work and siding with Tommie Beau.

    He’s a stayer who’s versatile on ground, but has a preference for better ground. Form is in the book too, when beating subsequent Cheltenham chase winner Lisnamult Lad back over hurdles at Cartmel in May. He weakened last time out after leading in the Durham National at Sedgefield, a race he had won the year before. He looks well-handicapped and has apparently schooled well over banks according to his trainer.

    Representing France, Sweet David comes into this race in very consistent form. He lost out by a nose contesting a X-County chase in France last time out, and was seven lengths behind dual Grand National finisher Roi Mage two starts ago. Given his vast experience, he looks mightily well-handicapped in this contest and the French do have a habit of surprising a few. 8/1 (General) to shock once more.

     

    Isn’t It Grand?

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    3:30 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Valgrand @ 6/4 (General)

    There was only one eyecatcher at the October meeting, in fact for the whole early season. Valgrand wowed everybody when hacking up by 17 lengths from the front. And whilst Potters Charm was good, he didn’t produce the same wow factor. Dan Skelton, despite complaints of a backlog due to the ground, has been the man to side with for the early part of this season. And this hose looks pretty special.

  • Cheltenham November Meeting Day 1 | Buddy up

    Cheltenham November Meeting Day 1 | Buddy up

    The next three days at the Cheltenham November Meeting is always a good weekend for jumps fans

    Yes, the field sizes have fallen short due to good ground, but we still have some classy horses to shout about with Jonbon and Potters Charm.

    So, here are my fancies for day one.

     

    1:10 Cheltenham – Littlefoot @ 20/1 with Bet365 (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The British handicapper has been harsh to Littlefoot by giving him six pounds just for crossing the Irish Sea, but I think there’s enough in his form book to suggest he can outrun his odds.

    This selection is based purely on form as he finished a nose second to Lucky Lyreen who is now rated 133 on bumper debut in December 2022.

    After that, he finished second to the now 150-rated chaser Nick Rockett and second to the three-time Grade 1 winner Dancing City.

    That bumper form in early 2023 is nice, and he went on to run well in a bumper behind Walk Away Harry at the 2023 Punchestown Festival.

    He found himself squeezed between runners that day, but all the right horses (Irish Panther, Dr Eggman, Lecky Watson, and He’s My Hero) finished ahead of him that day.

    Two starts ago, he broke his maiden at Ballinrobe off a very slow pace before finishing a promising third in handicap company in September.

    The cheekpieces that were first applied two starts ago remain for this weekend’s challenge, and you get the impression that this has been a plan considering his regular rider is the conditional jockey Liam McKenna.

    He needs to show he can handle this company, but with his age and profile, he’s not the worst 20/1-shot in the world.

     

    1:45 Cheltenham – Buddy One @ 7/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Buddy One was the wrong price earlier this week, and I explained this on both X and the Only Fools Love Horses podcast.

    His current price of 7/2 is probably about right if not a touch too big for a horse of his ability.

    He is the only one of these horses to run well in Grade 1 hurdle events, notably in the Stayers’ Hurdle, Liverpool Hurdle, and Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown.

    Considering he gets 3lbs and 5lbs in weight from Hyland and Springwell Bay respectively, he’s definitely best at the weights.

    Furthermore, of his three trips to Cheltenham, he’s won a handicap on the Old Course, finished third in the 2023 Martin Pipe, and finished fourth in the already mentioned 2024 Stayers’ Hurdle.

    So, he likes Cheltenham, and he likes good ground.

    That’s because he won on chase debut on the surface earlier this season and he finished second to Sa Fureur in a Grade 3 novice hurdle on good in February 2023.

    It was bold from connections to send him into open company against Heart Wood and Corbetts Cross last time out, and although his jumping wasn’t amazing, making all at a slow pace on soft ground probably didn’t suit him.

    I half believe connections have planned Buddy One for this race due to his liking for Prestbury Park, so with the class he has under the bonnet, he should go well here.

     

    2:55 Cheltenham – Busselton @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Joseph O’Brien revealed in his stable tour with Sporting Life that Busselton has schooled over cross country fences recently, so I hope he takes to the course at Cheltenham on Friday.

    O’Brien has kept him fit through the summer with four runs since June, one of which was a winning one.

    That’s a positive, and he also likes good ground based on his previous form.

    His notable efforts include his second in the 2022 Blazers Handicap on good to yielding, a race that saw Fan De Blues (the third) improve to win two more handicap chases.

    After that, he won the Kerry National over three miles on good ground when Hewick, a subsequent King George winner, fell at the last.

    On those pieces of form, a mark of 141 is workable this weekend in what looks a winnable race.

    Just looking at the head of the market, Conflated, as much as he’s a decent animal, would have concerns on good ground and he’s not a guaranteed stayer over an extended 3m5f.

    Sweet David could cause some issues as he has some nice French form with my beloved Roi Mage and he’s a cross country specialist.

    However, out of not knowing too much about him, Busselton is my fancy.